Putin's nightmare week, and the myth of his 'frozen conflict'.

For Putin, this is a week that he will come to view as the worst week in his life.

The 'macho' image that he has so assiduously cultivated since the beginning of his presidency of Russia has been severely deflated by the decision of the International Association of Athlectics Federation (IAAF) to,

" .... [bar] Russia from all international track and field competition for an indefinite period, including the 2016 Olympics in Rio de Janeiro, until the country is judged to have fixed its problems and fallen into line with global anti-doping rules." (Huffpost Sports : 11/13/2015) (my emphasis) (right: Putin posing with prospective Olympic athletes)

 

This barring of Putin's Russia from all international track and field competitions,

" ... was approved by a 22-1 vote during a teleconference of the 27-member council of the IAAF." (Sky News : Friday 13 November 2015) (my emphasis)

And if this were not enough to send Putin into fits of apopletic rage, Akin Oyedele informs us that,

"Crude oil tumbled towards $40 per barrel on Friday morning.

West Texas Intermediate crude futures in New York fell to as low as $40.47 a share, a drop of more than 3% to the lowest level in about two and a half months." (Business Insider UK : Nov. 13, 2015) (my emphasis)
 
To further add to his rage, the European Commissioner for Trade Cecilia Malmström, (right) has stated that,

"We decided that DCFTA would come into force, and Russia will have to accept that.

...

Commissioner Malmström will visit Ukraine on November 12-13 to meet the Prime Minister, the President, the Minister for Economic Development and Trade, and the Foreign Minister.
Implementation of the Ukraine – EU Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area from January 1, 2016, will be on the top agenda of Ms Malmström’s visit." (Unian : 11.11.2015) (my emphasis)

This emphatic position of  Cecilia Malmström towards Ukraine obtaining a DCFTA with the EU in just over 7 weeks time has elicited the following respone from Putin's glove puppet, Dmitry Medvedev viz. that,

".... the Kremlin plans introduction of customs tariffs, not sanctions against Ukraine. The tariffs will be introduced because Ukraine will no longer be part of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) free trade zone. Moscow is also concerned that without such a barrier, Kiev could illegally supply embargoed European goods to Russia." (RT : 13 Nov, 2015)(my emphasis)

All that Putin can now do is to shake his fists at the EU, and threaten that,

"... the threat of Donbass turning into another frozen conflict is still there. It stems from Kiev's policy, which continues to strengthen the blockade of the south-east," he said." (Reuters (CNBC) : 13 Nov., 2015) (my emphasis)

That Putin can so barefacedly make this threat is supported by the fact that,

"Far from international front pages, the situation in eastern Ukraine is once again on the verge of open warfare.
While the situation around Donetsk, the capital of the Russian-backed fighters, has remained strained since the announcement of the newest cease-fire in September, with sporadic small-arms fire reported almost daily, it has deteriorated significantly in the last two weeks." (James Miller and Pierre Vaux : RFERL : 14 Nov., 2015) (my emphasis)

This is how Putin defines a 'frozen conflict'! The continuing suffering of the people caught up in Putin's rebel-held territory in eastern Ukraine!

As reported by the UNHCR (UN High Commission for Refugees),

"For the first time since the suspension of its activities [by Putin's soldiers and rebel-proxies in eastern Ukraine], the UN refugee agency has delivered vital winter aid including plastic sheeting, timber and thousands of blankets for distribution to up to 12,000 highly vulnerable people in an area of eastern Ukraine that is beyond government control." (UNHCR : 9 November)

                                              UN Aid Chief to Visit east Ukraine

That Putin can sleep at night, fully aware of all the suffering and death that his invasion of eastern Ukraine has caused, should give us pause and concern for his state of mind. #

(to be continued)

Putin's rebels jeopardising the ceasefire, and Federica Mogherini batting for his economic team.

It may sound rather illogical, but 'bad news serves as the perfect cover' for distracting attention from news that you simply do not wish to appear in the headlines.

And so it is with the current Russian athletics doping scandal that has practically shoved most other news off the web pages of the Internet, as well as off the front pages of newspapers all around the word.

As the report of  Jethro Mullen (left) of CNN illustrates,

"A stunning report this week has rocked the athletics world with detailed allegations of a state-sponsored doping program in Russia." (CNN : November 10, 2015)

 What has been relegated to the back pages is the fact that in Ukraine,

" .....each side is accusing the other of firing at soldiers and civilians, underlining the fragility of the truce that some fear could disintegrate like previous ceasefires.", as reported by Yulia Silina. (AFP : 11 November, 2015)

She goes on to report that,

"Military spokesman Vladyslav Seleznyov accused the rebels of trying to "provoke us to return fire to disrupt the truce" and to "distract OSCE observers from the fact that they are not pulling back heavy weapons."

Kiev suspects that rebels are worried about the next step of the ceasefire agreement signed in Minsk in February, which requires them to give control of the Russian border back to Ukrainian authorities." (ibid Yulia Silina) (my emphasis)

As Jack Losh of The Times also reports,

"Ukraine’s fragile ceasefire was in danger of collapsing last night after a series of assaults on government positions by Russian-backed rebels was followed by counterstrikes along the eastern front line." (The Times : 11 November, 2015) (my emphasis)

UNIAN further informs us that,

"The Russian proxies fired small arms, and weapons of BMP-2 infantry combat vehicles in the direction of Nevelsk and Kamenka and also fired from anti-aircraft weapons in the direction of Verhniotoretske.
The terrorists also shelled Popasna and Bohuslavske on the Artemivsk direction from 120mm mortars, banned by the Minsk agreements." (UNIAN : 10.11.2015) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile, the 'fragrant' Federica Mogherini is suddenly in the Ukrainian spotlight.

Whilst, on the one hand, she is paying 'lip service' to the Minsk2 agreement by stating that,
 
 "....the EU's position on sanctions against Russia remains unchanged and is linked to the implementation of the Minsk agreements and de-occupation of Donbas.", (UUA : 09.11.2015)

on the other hand she is also arguing that,

"Russian concerns about the Ukraine-EU Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) Agreement should be addressed." (Kyiv Post : Nov. 9, 2015)

""We have already done much for implementation of the agreement [the EU-Ukraine deep and comprehensive free trade area agreement]. Now we still need to find practical solutions to remove Russia's concerns regarding the operation of this agreement," Mogherini stressed." (Ukrinform : 11 November, Wednesday) (my emphasis)

 

She also strongly urged,

" ..... Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko Monday to take tougher and more immediate action against corruption as his ex-Soviet country moves closer to Europe." (AFP: November 9, 2015)

It is rather interesting that Mogherini, Putin's favourite EU representative, is suddenly taking 'centre stage' over Ukraine in the EU.

The 'fragrant' Mogherini's blind spot, when dealing with her 'friend' Putin, is simply to 'take Putin at his word'. 

She should bear in mind that, as Melik Kaylan (left) argues,

" [Putin] launched into Syria knowing the potential cost of taking on ISIS, but he had to create another crisis after Ukraine to maintain nationalist fervor in Russia. 

Innocent Russian tourists paid with their lives. 

His propaganda organs, by word and deed, rose to the occasion with blood and lies. 

So the conflict in Ukraine was reignited to distract from ISIS. In effect, Ukrainians had to die to distract from Putin’s misstep in Syria. That’s how geo-strategically the Kremlin works.

In the Cold War we understood that. It’s time to understand it again." (Forbes :Nov 10, 2015) (my emphasis)

 Her argument that, "...[the EU] still need to find practical solutions to remove Russia's concerns regarding the operation of this agreement ....", as a prerequisite to fully complete the comprehensive trade agreement between Ukraine and the EU, ignores not only the PUBLIC duplicity of Putin but, more importantly, the fact that, as Andrew Mayeda (right) informs us,

"Russia is exploring strategies to try to block the International Monetary Fund’s next loan payment to Ukraine as a dispute between the two countries over a $3 billion bond comes to a head, according to a person familiar with the matter.......
...
Vladimir Putin’s administration may withhold its assurance that Ukraine can repay its debts to Russia, said the first person, who has direct knowledge of the Russian strategy. Russia could also argue that Ukraine hasn’t negotiated in good faith, the person said. The people asked not to be identified because the discussions aren’t public." (Bloomberg : November 10, 2015) (my emphasis)

And the 'fragrant' Mogherini still wishes us to focus on Putin's concerns that his economy will lose out when Ukraine joins the DCFTA with the EU?

(to be continued)

Putin's 'Novorossiya' dream for Ukraine is ending tragically

Today is something of a 'red letter' day for Putin.

In the wake of the elections that were held in Ukraine last month, the tragedy that occured over the Sinai desert where a plane carrying Russians exploded in mid-air killing (left) all on board, and the Russian cargo plane which crashed shortly after take-off in South Sudan on Wednesday, also killing all on board except for the miraculous surviving of a baby (see pic. on right) and an old woman,

"Chief diplomats [Foreign Ministers] of Germany (Steinmeier), France (Fabius), Russia (Lavrov) and Ukraine (Klimkin) will meet Friday (6/11/2015) in Berlin to agree on next steps in ending the Ukraine conflict, a German Foreign Ministry spokeswoman said Wednesday, citing heavy weapons withdrawal as one possible measure." (London Stock Exchange : 05 Nov 2015) (my emphasis) (Left to Right: Klimkin, Fabius, Lavrov, Steinmeier)

However,

"International monitors in eastern Ukraine have reported a sharp increase in gunfire along front lines near the airport of the rebel-held city of Donetsk, a senior official with Europe's main security and rights watchdog said on Thursday.

.......... [T]he OSCE monitors' report on Wednesday cited over 150 explosions and multiple bursts of small-arms and anti-aircraft machine-gun fire heard in various areas of the front." (Reuters: Thu Nov 5, 2015) (my emphasis) 

Not only has the OSCE monitors "seen many discrepancies in the withdrawal process in east Ukraine" (ibid Reuters) and "of particular worry is that at least one Grad rocket was used in Staromykhailivka ... on Nov. 2" (ibid Reuters)

General Wesley Clark has revealed, however, that,

"..More than half the makeup of OSCE, we were told, were Russian military, who are free to go up to the Ukrainian positions, look at their disposition ...... and maybe not even on the honour code" 

Full video here.

 "[A] Ukrainian security chief said the withdrawal process would stop if truce violations by pro-Russian separatists continue" (ibid Reuters) (my emphasis)

This sudden spike in gun and rocket fire of Putin's Russian soldiers and his rebel proxies in eastern Ukraine follows the blueprint of Russian military strategy, as General Wesley Clark so eloquently explains.

Phase 1: Terrorists
Phase 2: Irregular forces
Phase 3: Peace enforcement
Phase 4:  De-escalation

Today's meeting in Berlin between Lavrov, Steinmeier, Fabius, and Klimkin will be a discussion about the implementation of Phase 4 within the Minsk2 protocols.

This de-escalation has, however, been discussed for months without any ceasefire actually taking place. 

Two days ago,

"Oleksander Turchynov (right), secretary of Ukraine's National Security and Defence Council, said there had been nine ceasefire violations by the rebels in the past 24 hours alone.

"But unlike the previous provocations, the fire was targeted and of high intensity, resulting in five soldiers being wounded," Turchynov said in a statement." (Reuters: November 4,2015) (my emphasis)

Could this 'last ditch provocation' of Putin's soldiers and rebel forces in eastern Ukraine be due to the fact that, as Yuras Karmanau reports,

" The fighting has subsided, but Donetsk is quickly sinking into the past — a shabby Soviet-like state of empty streets and deprivation. Huge portraits of Josef Stalin hanging in the city center only reinforce the impression of failure.
.......
Donetsk's people today live in limbo. Effectively, they're no longer part of Ukraine, but Moscow has refused the rebels' pleas to be incorporated into Russia. Ukraine clamped down on the rebel-held parts of the Donetsk region and the neighboring separatist Luhansk region with a choking economic blockade; pensions and social benefits were cut off and business contacts frozen.
.....
For the officials of the Donetsk People's Republic, as the rebels call themselves, it is a tenuous existence. "We have no annual budget. We form a budget for a month," Ekaterina Matyushchenko, the finance minister.." (Associated Press :November 5, 2015) (my emphasis)

Is this the final end of Putin's 'Novorossiya' dream for Ukraine, as the bodies of those Russians who were tragically killed in Sinai and Sudan are taken back to Russia for burial?

(to be continued)

Putin taking Ukraine to court. A sign of Putin's total failure in eastern Ukraine?

Ian Talley (left) has reported that,

"....Ukraine’s Western allies are preparing to accelerate planned changes to the International Monetary Fund’s lending policies to prevent Russia from stymieing the country’s $25 billion financial rescue package." (Wall Street Journal : Oct. 29, 2015) (my emphasis)

Putin being Putin, if Ukraine's Western allies can 'stymie' his attempt to prevent Ukraine from receiving IMF funds, then he will drag Ukraine through the courts to get the 'BRIBE MONEY' that he gave to Yanukovich to 'scupper' the EU Association Agreement with Ukraine. (cf: The Guardian: Wednesday 18 December 2013)

And so it is that Ukraine and Putin,
 

"...are vowing to fight each other in a London court over a $3 billion bond Vladimir Putin bought to reward his Ukrainian ally, Viktor Yanukovych, for rejecting closer trade ties with the European Union two years ago." (Natasha Doff (left) : Bloomberg Business : October 28, 2015) (my emphasis)

Given, however, that it is universally known that Yanukovich stole $ billions from the Ukrainian coffers, and that he now resides in Moscow in comfort and under the protection of Putin himself, is it too far fetched to assume that Putin's banks ALREADY have that bond money stashed in Russian banks, under the name of Yanukovich?

If so then, in effect, Putin himself is now trying to steal $3 billion from the Ukrainian people under the guise of retrieving a loan that he gave to Yanukovich, and that Yanukovich himself stole from the Ukrainian people.

Thus the mealy-mouthed Anton Siluanov (right), Putin's Finance Minister, on 28th October stated that,

"...Moscow would take legal measures if Kiev did not repay the debt on time." (Lidia Kelly : Reuters : 28/10/2015),

yet ...... TWO DAYS LATER then stated that Putin,

" ... expressed concern about a possible rule change by the International Monetary Fund that would enable it to keep lending to Ukraine even if Kyiv defaults on its debt to Russia.

"Russia does not want Ukraine to be left without financial support," Anton Siluanov said on October 30, but Russia is suspicious of the "hastiness" of the rule change at the IMF. " (RFERL : Saturday, October 31, 2015) (my emphasis)

Can we really believe that Putin is sincere in saying that, "Russia does not want Ukraine to be left without financial support". Really?

Whilst many Western political pundits will view this dragging of Ukraine into a British court by Putin as a 'diplomatic manouvre' to keep up his political pressure on Poroshenko, what it really exposes is his petty minded vindictiveness.

Putin simply dare not be seen to have lost in eastern Ukraine. If he has to conform to the full implementation of Minsk2 then, like any thug, he will continue to kick at Ukraine, especially whilst it is economically vulnerable.

To complement his taking Ukraine to court in the UK,

 "Ukraine's former deputy defence minister, Leonid Polyakov, predicts Putin will be back with a new plan on Ukraine....

"Instead of provoking combat engagements they shifted emphasis to training sabotage units and multiple detachments they send one after another to Ukraine just to wreak havoc and undermine trust of population in Ukrainian authorities." (Ukraine Today: Oct. 26, 2015) (my emphasis)

And, as Polyakov predicted, Jack Losh reports that,

"Huge blasts have rocked a town in eastern Ukraine after an ammunition depot exploded and a series of fireballs erupted into the night sky.
.......
The Ukrainian security service is investigating the incident as a possible terrorist act, report local media. It is as yet unclear what sparked the massive fire." (The Guardian : Thursday 29 October 2015) (my emphasis) (cf. also : Natalia Zinets : Reuters : Fri Oct 30, 2015)

And whilst Putin's 'Spetsnaz' is beginning to wreak havoc in Ukraine, Farangis Najibullah reports that,

"A Russian member of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe's (OSCE) Special Monitoring Mission in eastern Ukraine has lost his job after revealing his bias.

The Ukrainian-language TSN new channel, a partner of Ukraine Today, on October 27 aired video footage of a man identified as Maksim Udovichenko revealing his past as a Russian military officer and giving locals his opinion on the situation in Ukraine. " (RFERL : October 29, 2015) (my emphasis)

It remains to be seen just how much 'wiggle room' Putin now has to extricate himself from his war with Ukraine, without seeming to to have fallen from his mythical pedestal of 'invincibility'.

That his current military support for the Syrian president, Bashar Al Assad, also seems to have rather 'backfired' on him.

In the words of the Saudi Arabian Foreign Minster Adel Al Jubeir (right),

"Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister said Saturday that Russia and Iran must agree to a date and means for Syria's President Bashar al-Assad to quit the country, and to the withdrawal of all foreign forces from Syria." (AlJazeera : October 31, 2015) (my emphasis)

Will Putin heed the call of the Saudi Foreign Minister and help in the removal of Bashar Al Assad, given that he has publicly stated that his forces in Syria are there to defend Bashar Al Assad against being overthrown?

We can but wait and see.

(to be continued)

Putin, Valdai, and the Ukrainian elections.

Now that the dust is beginning to settle on the war in eastern Ukraine, Putin is becoming more and more emroiled in Syria and Transnistria.

As reported by Moldova.org,

"A military exercise with the participation of approximately 350 soldiers from the Operational Division of Russia’s troops took place in Transnistria from September 29th to October 2nd. The information was released by the Agency RIA Novosti." (moldova.org : 02/10/2015)

His foray into Syria has, unfortunately for him, not resulted in the diminishing of his pariah status on the international scene. 

At the recent Valdai Conference, at which he,

".....launched a stinging attack on US policy in the Middle East, accusing Washington of backing terrorism and playing a “double game” (Shaun Walker (right): The Guardian : 22 Oct., 2015),

it did not go unnoticed that he also said,

“Fifty years ago, the streets of Leningrad taught me that if a fight is inevitable, you have to hit first.”(ibid Shaun Walker) (my emphasis)

But at this conference he revealed himself in his criticism of the US.

He stated that,

"The imposition of a fake legitimacy of actions, whenever a certain activity needed to be justified, or certain inconvenient regimes needed to be deposed"

This is precisely what he, himself, has done in Ukrainian Crimea, and is attempting to do in Ukraine through his proxy war in eastern Ukraine.

Even with the current ceasefire seemingly holding, and both Ukraine and Putin's Russian soldiers and rebel proxies withdrawing heavy armaments from the frontline of the war,

"Ukraine's former deputy defence minister, Leonid Polyakov, predicts Putin will be back with a new plan on Ukraine....

"Instead of provoking combat engagements they shifted emphasis to training sabotage units and multiple detachments they send one after another to Ukraine just to wreak havoc and undermine trust of population in Ukrainian authorities." (Ukraine Today: Oct. 26, 2015) (my emphasis)

Added to which, Sarah Rainsford reports that,

"Direct flights between Ukraine and Russia will stop on Sunday, as new sanctions initiated by Kiev come into effect." (BBC News : 24 October 2015)

Furthermore,  Madeline Chambers reports that,

"Ukraine will not pay off its debt to Russia if Moscow does not agree to join in a restructuring deal involving other creditors, Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseny Yatseniuk told German business daily Handelsblatt.
"We cannot treat Russia differently from other international creditors,” Yatseniuk told the paper, adding if Russia does not agree to the terms offered by Kiev, "then we will impose a debt moratorium and not service the credit.” (Reuters : Sun Oct 25, 2015) (my emphasis)

And whilst Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseny Yatseniuk was speaking in Germany, Ukraine held local elections.

"The October 25 elections were held in a calm atmosphere and in accordance with international standards", head of the ENEMO mission Zlatko Vujovic at a press conference in Kyiv on Tuesday, October 27, according to Interfax-Ukraine." (Ukraine Today : Oct. 27, 2015)

As an indication of Ukraine adhering to international standards during its elections,

"Local elections in Ukraine’s port city of Mariupol, a key location on the line separating Ukrainian troops and pro-Russian separatists, were abandoned on Sunday after a local commission rejected paper ballots as inaccurate.

Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko ordered an investigation into the snafu, and voters may get the chance to try again in November." (Volodymyr Verbyany and  Yulia Surkova : Bloomberg Business :  October 25, 2015) (my emphasis)

(pic. above: Activists block the printing of election ballots in Mariupol.
 They claimed more were being printed than necessary in order to falsify
 the election result. Photograph: Irina Gorbasyova/EPA)

The ballot papers were printed by a company owned by non other than the oligarch Rinat Akhmetov, a former ally of Yanukovych.

The Ukrainian oligarchs may, indeed, still wield enormous economic power in Ukraine.

But their political clout is slowly on the wane.

(to be continued)

 

Putin is hammering the final nail in the coffin of the ex Soviet Union

Adrian Karatnycky (left) and Alexander Motyl (right) suggest that,

"Putin’s adventure in eastern Ukraine is now dragging him down. The temporary upside for his popularity is outweighed by the economic burdens of the occupation [of Ukrainian Crimea] and the costs of further expansion.

Unsurprisingly perhaps, Putin may be losing interest in the Ukraine project. A person party to the September 2 phone conversation between French President Francois Hollande, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, and Putin said that the Russian president appeared unengaged and was not in command of the nuanced details of the discussion.

Instead, he was more interested in complaining that Ukraine was not buying Russian gas at a cheaper price than it gets from European and other international sources. ( Foreign Policy :20 Oct., 2015) (my emphasis)

As they explain,

" ...[At his recent (28 Sept., 2015) speech at the UN] he spent only a minute on the Ukrainian conflict, focusing instead on Russia’s constructive role in the Middle East." (ibid Karatnycky and Alexander Motyl) (my emphasis)

 In an article entitled, "Most of Russia’s military still ‘rubbish’ despite Ukraine, Syria deployments", Matthew Gault (left) indirectly supports the above contention of Karatnycky and Alexander Motyl that Putin’s adventure in eastern Ukraine is now dragging him down.
He writes that,

"The Russian president faces political and economic difficulties at home and Russia’s military is not as powerful as it seems. “Putin does not have significant numbers of the kind of troops you can deploy in this [the Syrian] kind of environment,” Galeotti explained to War College." (Reuters : October 20, 2015) (my emphasis)

(Podcast of Discussion between Matthew Gault and Galleoti)

Perhaps a most significant indicator that Putin is being dragged down by his near 'messianic' adventurism in Ukrainian Crimea, and his current war in eastern Ukraine, is exemplified by the fact that,

"Authorities in Russia [...] have charged the single mom with inciting ethnic hatred for sharing links related to the Ukraine conflict on social media.

[Yekaterina ] Vologzheninova faces up to four years in prison depending on the outcome of her trial, which began earlier this month at a Yekaterinburg court." (RFERL : October 21, 2015)

And whilst Yekaterina Vologzheninova is facing imprisonment in Russia for simply sharing links about an alternative interpretation of Putin's war with Ukraine, wreckage of MH17 still litters the countryside of Putin's rebel occupied eastern Ukraine, and

 

Brinda Banerjee (left) reminds us that,

 

"A Russian-made rocket launcher [Burantino] was found in Ukraine in September this year. The discovery has raised questions regarding Moscow’s denials about sending arms and troops to back the insurgency in East Ukraine. The United Kingdom is currently pursuing an explanation about the same."

...The Buratino was designed with the express purpose of destroying adversaries seeking refuge in reinforced constructions, lightweight armored vehicles and open expanses. (Valuewalk : October 20, 2015) (my emphasis)

Yet we are to believe that,

" .... pro-Russian insurgents said Tuesday they had begun withdrawing tanks and smaller weapons from the frontline splitting the devastated Donetsk region in the ex-Soviet state's eastern war zone." (124News : October 20th 2015)

As in the case of Yekaterina Vologzheninova, who is facing imprisonment in Russia for simply sharing links about an alternative interpretation of Putin's war with Ukraine, can we really believe that Putin has "lost interest in his Ukrainian project", as  Adrian Karatnycky and Alexander Motyl presume?

Or is this an indicator that, like the fall of Nikita Khrushchev in October 1964, Putin too may be heading in the same direction.

 (to be continued)

 

Putin fails to get Ukraine off the international agenda

Just as Putin thought that he had the Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, on his side after wooing him with membership of the Eurasian Economic Union, and the building of the Turkish Steam Gas Pipeline, Merkel has thrown a big spanner in his plans.

As Matthew Karnitschnig reports,

"Angela Merkel agreed at a meeting with Turkish leaders to help jumpstart Ankara’s EU membership talks and relax visa requirements in exchange for a pledge to slow the flow of refugees into Europe." (Politico : 18/10/15) (my emphasis)

What is highly significant about this agreement is that but a few days ago (Wed Oct 7, 2015) Merkel was rather adament that,

"... Turkey's help was needed to stem the flow of refugees to Europe but that this hadn't changed her view that Ankara should not become a member of the European Union." (Noah Barkin (right): Reuters : 7/10/2015) (my emphasis)

And with these developments, the war between Ukraine and Putin is once more heading towards centre stage.

Two days ago (Sat Oct 17, 2015),

"Chancellor Angela Merkel pressed Ukraine on Saturday to tackle corruption and roll back the influence of oligarchs, saying German businesses are ready to invest there if the right conditions are in place.

Merkel made her remarks ahead of a visit to Berlin by Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseny Yatseniuk next Friday, when the two leaders are due to open a German-Ukrainian economic conference at which investment opportunities will be explored." (Paul Carrel : Reuters : Sat Oct 17,2015) (my emphasis)

Added to which, now Ukraine has a seat on the UN Security Council, as Edith M. Lederer (right) reports.

"Ukraine won a seat on the U.N. Security Council on Thursday and immediately promised to use the platform to wage a political battle against Russia for annexing Crimea and supporting eastern Ukrainian separatists." (ABC News (AP) : Oct 15, 2015) (my emphasis)

More importantly, Poroshenko has said that,

"For the first in its entire history, the UN will have both the aggressor, Russia, and the object of aggression sitting at its Security Council." (Interfax : 19.10.2015)

Furthermore, that,

"Now Ukraine can "demand an immediate UN SC meeting, whether it is 1 a.m. or 2 a.m.," he said. "Before we had to ask our friends and partners - now we can do so ourselves," Poroshenko said." (ibid Interfax) (my emphasis)

What makes this newfound power of Ukraine's seat on the UN Security Council is that,

"President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko [now] does not exclude returning the next year to the proposal for deployment of the UN peacekeeping force, if the Minsk Agreement are not implemented according to the agreed schedule, that’s according to President’s Sunday night interview with major Ukrainian TV channels." (Unian : 18.10.2015)

Putin may have a veto on the UN Security Council, but vetoing the use of UN peacekeeping forces in eastern Ukraine will simply reinforce the truth that Russian soldiers have always been active, alongside his rebel forces, in eastern Ukraine.

Perhaps even more significantly, the fact that Poroshenko is sticking to the Minsk2 timetable means that the border between Ukraine and Russia has to be returned to the control of Ukraine and, possibly, patrolled by Ukrainian soldiers together with UN Peacekeeping Forces.

And if this were not enough to enrage Putin, the fact that,

"Ukraine on Thursday gave Russia two weeks to accept to write off part of its loans to the country, as other international creditors have agreed to do, opening a new front in the show-down between the countries." (Nataliya Vasilyeva : Associate Press (Yahoo News) : October 15, 2015),

is positively making him spit nails! (my emphasis)

Putin's threat of legal action has been countered by Poroshenko's threat of legal action. According to Poroshenko, the $3 billion loan that Putin gave to Yanukovich, his comrade in arms, was a private creditor debt i.e.

"The fact that the bonds were purchased via the Irish stock exchange makes the disbursement a private creditor debt. However, the Russian side insists that this is an interstate debt, as the buyer was a state-owned National Wealth Fund." (Unian : 15.10.2015) (my emphasis)

As the old saying goes, "this legal tussle will run and run", but will not be enough for Putin to spike a $17 billion loan from the IMF.

Adding to Putin's woes, Ukraine Today informs us that,

"Some 100-200 activists gathered in Moscow on October 17

More protests in Moscow - in support of Ukraine and against Russian airstrikes in Syria. Estimates suggest some 100 to 200 activists attended the rally on Saturday, October 17." (UT : Oct. 17, 2015)

Whilst this was a small demonstration, the fact that Russians are now willing to risk arrest by supporting Ukraine speaks volumes.

What must, however, be worrying for Putin's propaganda machine is the release of,

"The documentary ‘Winter on Fire’ [that] captures the Ukrainian uprising in all its brutal, bloody realness." (Teo Bugbee (left): The Daily Beast : 09.10.15)

What is significant about this documentary is that,

"Continuing their expansion into the world of exclusive content, Netflix is set to premiere [this] documentary Friday (09.10.15), yet another step into film festival-approved (and potentially Oscar-friendly) waters." (ibid Teo Bugbee) (my emphasis)

Netflix reaches millions of homes in the USA, in Europe, and throughout the rest of the world.

The fact that Netflix is premiering this documentary means that they will push it to the forefront for viewing.

And against this,

"Three portraits of the former Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin are on display in the centre of Donetsk, the rebel capital of eastern Ukraine, as the separatist authorities fuel a mood of Soviet nostalgia.

The Stalin portraits have been placed in the main square and feature a quote from the wartime leader: “Our cause is just. The enemy will be routed. We will claim victory.” (Agence France-Presse : The Guardian : Monday 19 October 2015)

Like Putin,

"The Donetsk rebel leader, Alexander Zakharchenko, said how he regretted the break-up of the Soviet Union." (ibid The Guardian)

while,

"In August, the Donetsk rebel authorities decided to pull down a monument to victims of the 1930s famine in Ukraine [a famine created by none other than Stalin himself]." (ibid The Guardian)

 (to be continued)