Has Putin's 'Crimean ploy' against sanctions paid off?

It is said that a picture is worth a thousand words. And so it is.

A smiling Putin, and a somewhat subdued Kerry, US Secretary of State, after Kerry stated that,

"No one should be forced to choose between a dictator and being plagued by terrorists," Kerry said. However, he described the Syrian opposition's demand that Assad must leave as soon as peace talks begin as a "nonstarting position, obviously." (AP : Daily Mail : 15 December 2015) (my emphasis)

All of this follows closely on the heels of US Vice President Biden, who stated on Monday that,

"U.S. Vice President Joe Biden said Monday that Washington remained determined to see Russia adhere to a shaky Ukrainian peace agreement and hand back Crimea to Kyiv." (World Bulletin : 08 December 2015 Tuesday) (my emphasis)

BUT with the caveat that,

"It's absolutely critical for Ukraine... to root out the cancer of corruption," the U.S. vice president said.  "There's a growing degree of popular frustration about the slow pace of the reforms and the efforts to root out corruption," Biden warned." (ibid World Bulletin) (my emphasis)

And suddenly yesterday, Putin explodes another bombshell at his "stage set" press conference.

As Shaun Walker reports from Moscow,

"Vladimir Putin has for the first time admitted the presence of Russian military specialists in east Ukraine.
Russia has repeatedly denied a military presence in the conflict, despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary. But the Russian president conceded there were military intelligence officers operating in the country in a marathon press conference on Thursday." (The Guardian : Thursday 17 December 2015) (my emphasis)

Even more significantly, Putin stated that,

"We are NOT going to introduce ANY sanctions against Ukraine .... I want this to be heard ..."

But ...... wait a minute .....  did not Putin recently,

"[order] the suspension of Russia’s free trade zone with Ukraine, following up on threats that Kiev’s trade deal with the EU would cost it preferential access to the Russian market.

The move by the Russian president comes as EU members prepare to discuss on Friday another extension of sanctions imposed on Russia over its annexation of Crimea and its role in the war in Ukraine."? (Kathrin Hille, Roman Olearchyk, and Christian Oliver : Financial Times : December 16, 2015)

And did this not elicit from Ukraine the response that,

"Ukraine is "ready to pay the price" for a trade deal with the European Union, President Petro Poroshenko said on Wednesday (16 December), after Moscow moved to restrict its own trade ties with Kyiv over the accord that is due to take effect on 1 January." (EuroActiv : 17 Dec 2015) (my emphasis)

These tectonic political shifts comes against the backdrop of President Obama beginning to muse on what he will do as he begins to walk towards the sunset of political retirement.

The burning question that now has to be answered is,

"Has Ukraine been sold down the river by Obama, as a payment to Putin for his intervention in Syria?"

Is this why Kerry so categorically described,

"...... the Syrian opposition's demand that Assad must leave as soon as peace talks begin as a "nonstarting position, obviously."?

Let us remind ourselves of the words of  Orysia Lutsevych (right), who recently wrote that,

"..To ease sanctions [against Putin's Russia] in order to secure Russian cooperation on Syria would be to treat Ukraine as a bargaining chip for the West. This must not be allowed to happen. Syria and Ukraine are entirely separate issues whose only connection is Russian opportunism.. " (New York Times : December 10, 2015) (my emphasis)

Already,

"Italy has requested a debate at the EU summit on plans to extend economic sanctions against Russia for its intervention in Ukraine by six months until July of next year. This is considered an unusual move given that there is already broad consensus among EU states on the extension." (Francesco Guarascio (left): Reuters : Fri Dec 18, 2015) (my emphasis)

Yet on 14 December 2015, Tom Burridge (right) reported that,

"The official collective position in Brussels, though, is that there will be no trade-off of issues.

The bloc will work hard to engage Russia on many issues without giving up its "very clear position" on Ukraine. (BBC News : 14 December 2015)

 And so,

 

"Sanctions were set to be extended on Wednesday, but that did not happen after the Italian government instructed its ambassador to raise objections during a closed-door meeting of EU countries’ delegates, which was supposed to approve the extension without much political noise." (The American Interest : Dec 11, 2015) (my emphasis) (Prime Minister Matteo Renzi of Italy (left)

 

More ominously,

 

"... On Thursday, the 28 EU ambassadors met again, but the delicate topic was not put to vote for a second time as Italy signaled it wouldn’t change its position, diplomatic sources told POLITICO.[..]

...

Italy wants Europe to take Russia’s military help in Syria into account when discussing sanctions, a source said." (ibid The American Interest) (my emphasis)

 

Has Putin finally wrested this demand of his from President Obama?

 

 

 

(to be continued)

Putin pulling out all the stops as the deadline of Minsk2 fast approaches

In March of this year it was revealed that Putin lied over the date when he ordered the invasion of, and subsequent annexation of, Crimea.

"...Putin has admitted for the first time that the plan to annex Crimea was ordered weeks before the referendum on self-determination.". (BBC News : 9 March, 2015)

Now he's at it again.

On Friday he publicly stated that Russia is supplying rebels fighting Assad with arms and ammunition, something which has caused confusion in world capitals. This is precisely what he said.

 

However, bearing his revelations about his lying over Russia's takeover of Crimea, a US official wisely stated that this is all propaganda. This is pure Putin 'maskirovka', military deception ranging from camouflage to denial and deception.

This 'bombshell' statement of Putin about him arming a group of Assad's enemies was made purely to divert the eyes of the world away from the fact that,

" [he] has deployed an extra 20,000 soldiers to the frontline of Ukraine’s civil war, as temperatures and hopes of a lasting ceasefire continue to plummet." (Tom Batchelor : Sunday Express : 12 Dec. 2015) (my emphasis)

This flooding of eastern Ukraine with another batch of his soldiers should also be viewed against the fact that suddenly, all those Ukrainian oligarchs and escapees residing particularly in Moscow and London are now marching to Putin's orders by trying to sow dissent and discord within Ukraine itself. (blog entry : 11 Dec. 2015)

And whilst Putin is deploying more soldiers to eastern Ukraine, Dmytro Firtash, one of Putin's Ukrainian oligarch pals residing in London, has had published in his London newspaper, The Independent, a supportive article about the Sovietization of the rebel-held territory of eastern Ukraine where.

"Stalin’s cult of personality has been resurrected. Portraits of the dictator appear in Donetsk’s main square and adorn most separatist commanders’ offices. Rebels have rewritten school history books to take a pro-Russian slant and airbrush Stalinist atrocities.
...
Such nostalgia in the restive east is understandable." (Jack Losh : The Independent : 12 December 2015) (my emphasis)

Understandable???

And whilst the rebel-held territories are reverting to nostalgia for Stali, whilst being rather slow off the mark, Ukraine is tentatively ramping up its attack on endemic corruption.

As Anders Åslund and John Herbst (left and right respectively) report,

"Judicial reforms have proven much more difficult to enact than economic reforms. Multiple vested interests have blocked reforms of prosecution and courts and the establishment of new anticorruption bodies. The European Union is trying to persuade the Ukrainian government to do the right things, but with limited success. With a commission scheduling regular meetings, the US Vice President would be well positioned to use his influence to help resolve these difficult issues." (Atlantic Council : December 7, 2015)

At the same time, Ukraine's fight against corruption at the lower level has now gone online. As Lydia Tomkiw reports,

"A big part of putting information online is about gaining trust, Shyrba says, and that will require making Ukrainians comfortable with using online resources and reassuring them it’s not a gimmick -- someone will actually answer their queries." (International Business Times : 12/07/15)
 
And whilst Ukraine is becoming more focussed on its implementation of the fight against corruption, Ukrainian oligarchs Victor Pinchuk and Igor Kolomoisky are readying themselves for battle against each other in a London court.

"Feuding Ukrainian oligarchs [Victor Pinchuk and Igor Kolomoisky (left)] have launched what promises to be one of the most expensive court cases in English legal history over a disputed business deal, amid allegations of murder, bribery and political intrigue." (David Barrett (right): The Telegraph :  04 Dec 2015) (my emphasis)

The question that needs to be raised about this impending battle between Ukrainian oligarchs is, "Why now?"

And "Why now?" is Firtash's London newspaper suddenly giving the 'oxygen of publicity' to Oleksandr Klymenko (right), Ukraine’s Minister for Tax and Revenue under Viktor Yanukovych, and now living in Moscow? (cf. Kim Sengupta Moscow)

And "Why now?" are there also articles about 'Soviet kitsch' in the rebel-held territories appearing in Firtash's London newspaper? (cf Jack Losh)

So what we have is:

• Putin trying to avert the eyes of the international community away from his war with Ukraine by pulling his Syrian rabbit out of a hat,
• Ukrainian oligarchs being given the 'oxygen of publicity' by Firtash,
• Putin beefing up his army on Ukraine's border to the tune of 20,000 Russian soldiers, and
• Ukrainian oligarchs, Victor Pinchuk and Igor Kolomoisky, preparing to do battle in an English court

What is rather disconcerting is the fact that even Russian political analysts have been sucked in by Putin's Syrian rabbit trick.

 

Indeed it would seem that we have Putin's 'Crimean ploy' all over again. 

We should all take heed of Orysia Lutsevych (left), who wrote that,

"..To ease sanctions [against Putin's Russia] in order to secure Russian cooperation on Syria would be to treat Ukraine as a bargaining chip for the West. This must not be allowed to happen. Syria and Ukraine are entirely separate issues whose only connection is Russian opportunism.. " (New York Times : December 10, 2015) (my emphasis)

(to be continued)

Putin's 'terror' strategy in Ukraine is failing, as is the Russian economy

On Friday, November 20 2015, I wrote that,

"As Aaron Korewa says,

 "Euromaidan Press recently published a list of the Kremlin's other separatist projects in Ukraine. One of the most active organizations is the Kharkiv Partisans, which operates in northeast Ukraine. The group has claimed responsibility for several IED attacks on both people and infrastructure in the area. Its leader, Oleg Sobchenko, (left) lives in Russia and claims to be a Soviet Army veteran who served on the Afghan border. (Atlantic Council : November 11, 2015)"

Now we learn that yesterday, as Pavel Polityuk and Natalia Zinets report,

"Ukraine's security service said on Thursday it had broken up an armed insurgent group that operated out of Kiev and other major Ukrainian cities and that two people had been killed during the operation.
The SBU security service said it had detained three Russian and four Ukrainian citizens after a shootout in which a special forces officer and the Ukrainian leader of the armed group were killed." (Reuters : Thu Dec 10, 2015) (my emphasis)

And, as reported by AP,

"International observers still witness fighting and the use of banned weapons in eastern Ukraine months after a cease-fire deal was signed, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe said on Thursday.
......
"Instead of redoubling efforts to adhere to the Minsk, we are witnessing a media-driven blame-game," [Alexander] Hug (left) [OSCE deputy chief monitor in Ukraine] said, referring to a recent incident outside the village of Zaitseve between government and rebel lines where a woman was killed by gunfire. "We also see heavy weapons inside agreed withdrawal lines." (Yahoo News: December 10, 2015) (my emphasis)

Is this renewed fighting in eastern Ukraine a response to  US Vice-President Joe Biden, who recently stated on his visit to Kiev that,

""The US stands firmly with the people of Ukraine in the face of continued -- I emphasise continued -- aggression from Russia and Russian-backed separatists," he told Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko." ? (Olga Shylenko and Dmytro Gorshkov :AFP [Yahoo News]: December 7, 2015) (my emphasis)

Biden also stated that,

"...Washington remained determined to see Russia adhere to a shaky Ukrainian peace agreement and hand back Crimea to Kiev." (ibid Olga Shylenko and Dmytro Gorshkov) (my emphasis)

Putin, who thought that his Syrian adventure, could be used as a bargaining chip against Ukraine, and also as a means of having the sanctions against Russia lifted, must have 'blown a fuse' at these statements of Biden.

Added to which,

"The European Union and Ukraine say they will introduce a free trade pact next month as planned despite Russia's threat to take retaliatory trade action if its concerns aren't addressed. Ukraine Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk said on Monday that "this agreement will enter force on January 1, and this agreement is in the interests of the European Union and Ukraine." (AP : Salt Lake Tribune : Dec 11, 2015) (my emphasis)

Scraping the bottom of his propaganda barrel, Putin is now calling in the markers of his Ukrainian oligarch friends, no doubt commanding them to 'do their bit' in attacking the current Ukrainian government. 

We thus have a spate of threats emanating from this group, headed by none other than Ukrainian billionaire Dmytro Firtash (left), owner of London's "Independent Newspaper", who recently said that, 

"..the Ukrainian government is politically bankrupt and will probably fall early next year, his most outspoken criticism of the pro-Western leadership in Kiev since it came to power almost two years ago.

Firtash, a former supporter of ousted Moscow-friendly president Viktor Yanukovich, shelved a plan to return to Ukraine this week after officials there said they would act on a U.S. warrant for his arrest on suspicion of bribery and money-laundering." (Alessandra Prentice :Reuters : [Yahoo News] : December 2, 2015) (my emphasis) (my emphasis)

Then there is Oleksandr Klymenko (right), Ukraine’s former Minister for Tax and Revenue under Viktor Yanukovych, who is now in exile in Moscow.

" [He] has been placed on the European Union’s sanctions list at the request of the post-revolutionary government in Kiev, meaning his assets are at risk and he cannot travel to or through the EU; and now he has decided to come out fighting against the claims.

...

“It is nothing but political persecution aimed at demonising me,” the former minister told The Independent. [ the London Newspaper of, none other than, Dmytro Firtash]". (Kim Sengupta Moscow: The Independent: Wednesday 2 December 2015)

And what about Rinat Akhmetov, Ihor Kolomoyskyi, Andriy Klyuyev?

The call by Joe Biden to the Ukrainian parliamentarians to,   

 

" .... reform the whole prosecution and judiciary," Biden said. "Oligarchs should not be able to influence court and judges... corruption siphons resources from the people and from the economy, and you know it." (Christopher Miller (right): MashableUK : Dec 8, 2015),

seems to have somewhat 'panicked' Ukraine's oligarchs.

If calling in these markers from his Ukrainian 'oligarch' buddies were not enough, Putin is now having to resort to giving a pep talk to his propaganda soldiers at the 10th anniversary of RT; to inspire them to even greater feats of honing their 'propaganda military skills' in the face of the international community beginning to become immune to their lies and distortions of events in Ukraine. (Published on 10 Dec 2015)

And whilst this lavish banquet is thrown for his 'propaganda paratroopers' at RT,  Emre Gurkan Abay reports that,

"The Kremlin’s recent economic policies are unsustainable and could lead to civil unrest, analysts said Wednesday.

As the country is involved in military conflicts in Ukraine and Syria it also faces crippling international sanctions and a crash in the price of oil, the country’s greatest export.

...in an effort to balance the books, President Vladimir Putin's government anticipates cutting health expenditure by 8 percent and education spending by 8.5 percent in 2016. Pension costs are also due to be trimmed by 4 percent. 

“This proposed level of defense spending at the cost of investment in healthcare and education is unsustainable,” Russia and Eurasia expert John Lough (left), of the British think tank Chatham House, told Anadolu Agency.

Predicting that such cost-cutting on vital social projects could lead to protests in Russian cities, Lough also said that sanctions due to be implemented against Turkey will make matters worse “because they will hit the pockets and kitchen tables of large swathes of the population.” 

......
"Mr. Putin must be feeling the pressure," [Hossein] Askari said in reference to economic mismanagement and vast military spending.

These would require political will and a sharp turnaround in policy, he added.

"But sadly for the Russian people, Mr. Putin is obstinate and will not change." (AA : 02.12.2015) (my emphasis)

(to be continued)

Putin to sue Ukraine, whilst Merkel and Steinmeier ride to his rescue as the deadline for Minsk2 approaches.

As a last ditch effory to scupper Ukraine receiving IMF funding, Putin's Finance Ministry will be filing a lawsuit against Ukraine over that $3 billion loan he gave to his 'buddy', Victor Yanukovich, who is now residing somewhere near Moscow under his, Putin's, protection.


As his Finance Ministry so succintly put it,

"... we have nothing to do but to file a lawsuit against Ukraine if the borrower fails to fulfil its liabilities in full on December 20, 2015, which will mean Ukraine’s sovereign default."

"Besides, now there exist risks that Ukraine will not get another tranche from the IMF as the country’s budget for the year 2016 has not been approved in compliance with the IMF parameters due to the lack of a drafted tax reform and other required structural measures," the Russian Finance Ministry said." (Tass : December 05, 2015) (my emphasis)

It is no coincidence that the day this statement was released by Putin's Finance Ministry, it is exactly 21 years since the signing of the Budapest Memorandum by Russia, the US, Ukraine, and Great Britain, which confirmed that,

"The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine;.." (CFR : December 5, 1994) (my emphasis)

And whilst Putin is readying himself to sue Ukraine,

"A Russian delegation at a meeting of the OSCE ministerial conference in Belgrade has blocked the adoption of a declaration on the activities of the special monitoring mission (SMM) in Ukraine, according to the Foreign Ministry of Ukraine". (KyivPost :  Dec. 05, 2015) (my emphasis)

At the same time, Robin Emmott informs us that,

"NATO's top commander warned on Wednesday there was little chance that Russia would meet a year-end deadline for a peace deal in eastern Ukraine, saying the calmer situation there did not mean the end of the conflict was near.

Spelling out what many Western officials believe, NATO Supreme Allied Commander Philip Breedlove  (left) said Russia continued to support separatists in the area and that the ebb and flow in violence was Russia's way of demonstrating its power." (Reuters : Wed Dec 2, 2015) (my emphasis)

It is thus highly unlikely that the end-of-year target for implementing the proposals of Minsk2 will be met. These targets included,

" .... restoration of Ukrainian control on its eastern border, removal of all non-Ukrainian state forces from the region and release of hostages." (ibid Robin Emmott) (my emphasis)

Pavlo Klimkin, Ukraine Foreign Minister (right with Steinmeier), 

".... spoke about Russia’s failure to fulfill any of its obligations taken at the Normandy Format Summit in Paris early October: ceasefire, verified heavy weapons withdrawal, withdrawal of all foreign troops and mercenaries from Donbas, disarmament of all illegal armed formations and establishment of the security zone along the Ukrainian-Russian border with effective 24/7 monitoring by OSCE." (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine : 02 December,2015) (my emphasis)

This, however, seems not to have been heard by that Putinversteher, Walter Steinmeier who, as  Alex Barker, Stefan Wagstyl, and Roman Olearchyk report, is behind

"Germany ... piling pressure on the European Commission to cut a deal with Russia to avert a flare-up when an EU trade deal with Ukraine comes into force next month.
...
The suggestions are outlined in a November letter, seen by the Financial Times, from Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Germany’s foreign minister, to Cecilia Malmström, the EU’s trade chief." (The Financial Times : December 1, 2015) (my emphasis)

And whilst Steinmeier is trying to appease Putin, with the blessing of none other than Angela Merkel herself, 

"[US] Vice President Joe Biden (left) is scheduled to visit Ukraine early next week to reassure [Ukrainian] government leaders and reformers of the United States’ continued support “in face of continued Russian military intervention” in the country’s restive east, administration officials said." (Carol Guensburg : VOA : December 05, 2015) (my emphasis)

This visit of Biden comes shortly after,

"[John] Kerry (right), [U.S. Secretary of State] spoke Thursday at the annual ministerial council of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, a two-day session held in Belgrade, Serbia.

In his remarks Kerry said Russia should help with the removal of Russian forces in eastern Ukraine and allow unfettered access to OSCE monitors in the war-torn region of Donbas. He said Ukraine needs to do its part to restore the cease-fire and begin rebuilding Ukraine's eastern regions. (VOA News : December 03, 2015) (my emphasis)

And, surpisingly,

"Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (left) indicated that Canada will provide more support for Ukraine in its conflict with Russia, after the countries’ leaders met on the sidelines of the global climate conference in Paris.

Trudeau and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko held a closed-door bilateral meeting on Sunday, CBC News reported." (Michelle Mark: International Business Times : November 30 2015) (my emphasis) 

Why, therefore, is it that neither Walter Steinmeier nor Angela Merkel are willing to now publicly state that Putin's soldiers should get out of eastern Ukraine?

Especially now that the deadline for the FULL implementation of Minsk2, to which Merkel herself is a signatory, is only 25 days away? 


(to be continued)

Putin does not have time on his side.

Gabriela Baczynska and Alastair Macdonald report that,

"Russia is likely to penalise Ukrainian imports from January after EU-brokered talks failed to find a compromise on Tuesday, exactly a month before the launch of an EU-Ukraine free trade pact that Russia opposes.
......
The clock is ticking very, very fast," said EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom after hosting the meeting. She stressed that Ukraine and the European Union would not heed Russian calls for them to amend their agreement or, following more than a year's delay, put off its implementation any longer." (Reuters : Tue Dec 1, 2015)

True to form, Putin is once again 'spitting nails' as the days to the launch of the EU-Ukraine free trade pact tick down.

Lashing out, Putin has now decided to penalize Ukrainian exports to Russia. As Russian Economy Minister Alexei Ulyukayev (left) puts it,

"It is a very probable scenario that there will not be an agreement before January 1 [between the EU, Ukraine, and Russia] and the non-preferential trade regime [for Ukraine] will be introduced," (ibid  Gabriela Baczynska and Alastair Macdonald)

And galloping over this tense EU-Ukraine economic horizon into Putin's camp is the Putinversteher Walter Steinmeier. 

As Alex Barker, Stefan Wagstyl, and Roman Olearchyk report,

"Germany is piling pressure on the European Commission to cut a deal with Russia to avert a flare-up when an EU trade deal with Ukraine comes into force next month.

In a bid to resolve the dispute, Berlin has proposed a joint declaration between the EU and Russia offering Moscow the prospect of long-sought investment and energy concessions to create a more integrated economic area from the Atlantic to the Pacific.

The suggestions are outlined in a November letter, seen by the Financial Times, from Frank-Walter Steinmeier (right), Germany’s foreign minister, to Cecilia Malmström, the EU’s trade chief." (The Financial Times : December 1, 2015) (my emphasis)


Yet many Eastern European countries, 

"....view the EU’s planned “energy union” as a way to break energy dependence on Russia; the language in Mr Steinmeier’s the declaration, by contrast, appears to accommodate Russia as a permanent structured partner" (ibid  Alex Barker, Stefan Wagstyl, and Roman Olearchyk) (my emphasis)

And whilst Steinmeier, with the blessing of Angela Merkel (Alex Barker et al), is once again coming to the rescue of Putin, 

"Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev approved on Tuesday sanctions against Turkey in retaliation for the downing of a Russian warplane." (Pavel Polityuk : Reuters: Tues Dec 1, 2015)

And in a twist of fate, Poroshenko is now extending a helping hand to Turkey in the light of Medvedev, Putin's glove puppet, approving those sanctions against Turkey.

"Ukrainian Agriculture Minister Oleksiy Pavlenko (right) has already proposed that Turkey replace Russian food with Ukrainian, saying Kiev could double its export of sunflower oil, wheat and maize to Turkey." (ibid Pavel Polityuk) (my emphasis)

Just as Poroshenko is extending a helping hand to Turkey in the face of Putin's sanctions, at the current Paris Climate Conference Putin has done an about-turn on the issue of climate change.

From his years of mocking the issue of climate change, suddenly he announced at this conference that,

“Climate change has become one of the gravest challenges humanity is facing,” he said. He went on, “Caused by global warming, hurricanes, droughts, floods and other anomalies are the source of economic damage.” (Coral Davenport: New York Times : December 1, 2015) (my emphasis)

Coral Davenport rather perceptively comments on Putin's change of attitude.

"Were Mr. Putin’s statements merely further attempts to win a place back in the international fold, after he was marginalized because of Russia’s aggression in Crimea, eastern Ukraine and Syria?"

Poroshenko, on the other hand, pointed out to the conference delegates the dangerous pollution in the Donbas caused by Putin's war with Ukraine.

Which rather exposes the deceptive nature of Putin's comments on climate change.

This is not the only 'about turn' that Putin has recently committed.

From him shouting from the rooftops that his invasion of Crimea and eastern Ukraine was to protect his Russian kith and kin, we now hear that,

"Moscow will be pushing out of Russia early next year all those who fled Ukraine. Their presence in Russia has deepened Russian suspicions about people from Ukraine, but their return to Ukraine will even further deepen the split between the two countries because of the experiences they had in Russia...
......

Russians in Russia began to understand that “many of these did not want to work but only to live at the expense of the Russian state; and this is one of the reasons why as of January 2016, all the offices for Ukrainian refugees in the Russian Federation will be closed” and the refugees themselves forced to return home." (Lev Shlosberg (left) [member of the Pskov Region Assembly]: Window on Eurasia : November 28, 2015) (my emphasis)

Where, now, is Putin's sympathy for the Russian diaspora?

(to be continued)

Putin's world is beginning to crumble around his feet. And herein lies the danger for the rest of us.

The inevitable has happened.

Putin, flush with success over these last years that he could use gas as a military weapon, now finds that, unfortunately, this weapon is not all that it was cracked up to be, as he had previously believed.

With the recent shooting down of one of his military planes by the Turkish military, and the rapidly dissappearing of what he thought would be an unbreakable bond of friendship between himself and the President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan (left), Putin must now be more than fuming.

As Marc Champion explains,

"Whichever version of [the shooting down of a Russian military plane by Turkish military]... turns out to be accurate -- or even a combination of the two, in which the Russian Sukhoi had strayed into Turkish airspace and was shot down as it veered back into Syria -- it is clear that Putin has misjudged Erdogan." (Bloomberg View : Nov. 24, 2015) (my emphasis)

Putin simply cannot use his gas weapon against Turkey since,

"The sales volume from Turkey is equivalent to 17% of Gazprom's total exports outside the former Soviet Union ...." (Tyler Durden : Zero Hedge: Nov. 25, 2015)

And if this were not enough,

"Ukraine has banned all Russian planes from using its airspace and exports of Russian gas to Ukraine have been halted by state-controlled giant Gazprom." (BBC News : 25 November 2015) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, Ukrainian Prime Minister, has informed us that,

" ..... his government had decided to stop buying gas from Russia as it could get a better deal elsewhere.

"The government has made the decision to order [Ukraine's national oil and gas company] Naftohaz to stop buying Russian gas.

"They got it all wrong. It is not them who are not supplying gas to us, it is us who are not buying gas from them. This is being done because offers that have come from our European partners - price offers - are much better than the offers from our eastern neighbour." (ibid BBC News) (my emphasis)

Compounding Putin's woes, we now learn that,

"Skirmishes between Donetsk militants resulted in dozens of deaths, according to the Main Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine's Defense Ministry.

"15 people died and about 20 have been wounded as a result of shootout in Donetsk between separatists' gangs," says the report.

So-called security forces of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic arrested more than 40 militants involved in the deadly melee. (Ukraine Today : Nov. 26, 2015)

Putin's Russian soldiers and rebel proxies seem to be hell bent on sabotaging the latest Minsk truce deal.

So much so that,

"The line of contact between Russian-backed militants and Ukrainian troops is shifting near the strategic port city of Mariupol according to government troops." (Ukraine Today :  Nov. 26, 2015)

And whilst Putin seems to be readying himself and his Russian soldiers and rebel forces for an attack on Mariupol, Olga Shylenko and Max Delaney report that,

"France said sanctions against Russia could be lifted if Moscow fulfils its pledges to bring peace to Ukraine, hours after Kiev closed its airspace to its neighbour's airlines and Russia said it would stop delivering gas.etc

Speaking on the eve of talks between the French and Russian presidents, French Prime Minster Manuel Valls (right) gave his clearest indication yet the punishing travel and financial restrictions placed on Russia over its role in eastern Ukraine could end. (AFP : 26 November, 2015) (my emphasis)

This is not the first time that Hollande has been subtly pushing for US and EU sanctions against Putin's Russia to be lifted.

Let us once again remind ourselves that on September 7, 2015, long before the tragic events in Paris last Friday (November 20, 2015),

"French President Francois Hollande said Monday that he will propose such a meeting [among the leaders of Russia, Ukraine and Germany in the coming weeks to resolve tensions around eastern Ukraine, in hopes of eventually lifting EU sanctions] in Paris ahead of the U.N. General Assembly later this month.

He said there has been progress in recent weeks in implementing a troubled February peace deal, and said if that continues, "then I will argue for lifting the sanctions." (AP : Yahoo : September 7, 2015) (my emphasis)

This pro-Putin stance of Hollande is mirrored amongst many closet Putin supporters in the EU.

As Henry Meyer, Tony Czuczka, and Helene Fouquet report,

"European Union countries will probably extend Ukraine-related economic sanctions against Russia for another six months at the end of January [2016] despite improved cooperation in Syria, three European diplomats said." (Bloomberg Business : November 23, 2015)

However, at the same time,

".... even as Hungary, Greece, Italy, Austria and Spain fall into line, resistance to the sanctions is growing and will further increase pressure on German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who is already facing calls from her domestic industrial lobby for a change in policy, Timothy Ash said." (ibid Henry Meyer, Tony Czuczka, and Helene Fouquet) (my emphasis)

Now that Putin's "Gas Military Weapon" against Ukraine is failing, he will be placing all his diplomatic eggs into the basket of having those crippling US and EU sanctions against him removed.

And aiding and abbeting him in bringing about his frantic diplomatic strategy about getting those sanctions removed will be the French President, Francoise Hollande and, I predict, the 'fragrant' Federica Mogherini (left), the current High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, nothwithstanding their mouthing of those deceptive platitudes about "the fullfilment of the Minsk2 proposals".

(to be continued)

Sabotage in Ukraine, and Putin cynically using the fight against ISIS to gain concessions over EU sanctions.

In his article about the current Unkrainian Crimean blackout, Leonid Bershidsky (right), the founding editor of Russia's top business daily, Vedomosti, the creator of the opinion website Slon.ru, who also ran the business book arm of Russia's biggest book publisher, Eksmo, and worked as managing director at the Russian KIT Finance investment bank,is finally revealing where his sympathies really lay.

He defines Ukrainian civil society as a,

"... powerful, unruly civil society [which] is extremely sensitive to hypocrisy. Since the 2014 "Revolution of Dignity," it is also prone to taking matters into its own hands." (Bloomberg View : Nov 23, 2015) (my emphasis)

Notice that he is brushing the whole of Ukrainian civil society with the actions being taken by Crimean Tartars to economically blockade their Ukrainian Crimea that has been invaded, annexed, and absorbed into Russia by Putin.

Let us recall that Dmitri Medvedev, Putin's glove puppet, on 31st March, 2014, boldly stated that,

"Our aim is to make the peninsula as attractive as possible to investors, so that it can generate sufficient income for its own development," he said, in a meeting that included Crimean leaders and was broadcast live on Russian state television.

In comments that made clear Russia had no plans to relinquish the region, he set out moves to increase wages for 140,000 state workers in Crimea, boost pensions, turn the region into a tourism hub, protect energy links, end reliance on Ukraine for water and improve its roads, railways and airports." (EurActiv : 01 Apr 2014) (my emphasis)

Besides the bribes paid to state workers and pensioners in Ukrainian Crimea, not even the basic groundwork for realising these dreams of both his and Putin's has materialised.

Now Putin has,

"....blamed Ukrainian nationalists and Crimean Tatar activists for the pylon damage, calling it "an act of terrorism"." (BBC News : 23 November 2015) and "has warned of retaliatory measures." (my emphasis)

Let us also remind ourselves that, as Aaron Korewa reports,

 "Euromaidan Press recently published a list of the Kremlin's other separatist projects in Ukraine. One of the most active organizations is the Kharkiv Partisans, which operates in northeast Ukraine. The group has claimed responsibility for several IED attacks on both people and infrastructure in the area. Its leader, Oleg Sobchenko, (right) lives in Russia and claims to be a Soviet Army veteran who served on the Afghan border." (Atlantic Council : November 11, 2015)

The current blackout in Crimea was, as Ivan Nechepurenko and Neil MacFarquhar report, caused by

" ... power lines [that] were knocked down by saboteurs on Sunday, forcing millions of residents to live without electricity." (New York Times : NOV. 23, 2015) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, that

"Ukraine's state energy company, Ukrenergo, said the damage to the pylons was caused by "shelling or the use of explosive devices". (ibid BBC News)

Is it a co-incidence that this sabotage has occurred just as Ukraine's decision to implement a free trade agreement with the EU comes into force on 1 January 2016? 

It is also no secret that Putin is positively apopletic with rage at the looming implementation of this trade deal between the EU and Ukraine.

"Russia is angry at Ukraine's decision to implement a free trade agreement with the EU on 1 January 2016." (ibid BBC News)

 And as Andrew Roth (left) reports,

"Russia is set to introduce sanctions banning the import of most Ukrainian food products starting in January. Moscow has described the move as retaliation for Ukraine joining European Union sanctions against Russia this year." (The Washington Post : November 2, 2015) (my emphasis) 

To which,

"Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk on Monday declared that Ukraine will retaliate against the planned Russian sanctions.

“Each Russian decision to impose an embargo against Ukraine will have an analogous Ukrainian decision about the introduction of an embargo against Russia,” Yatsenyuk said in a television appearance. (ibid Andrew Roth) (my emphasis)

All of this should be seen against the backdrop of :

(a) Putin desperately trying to re-enter the world stage by setting himself up as the leader in the vanguard of battling ISIS in Syria and Iraq

(b) Putin hoping that this stance of his will gain him concessions in the proposed extension of the EU sanctions that he brought upon the head of the Russian people after his invasion of eastern Ukraine, and his annexation of Ukrainian Crimea


As Mariella Vitureau and Vaidotas Beniusis report,

"Several Eastern European countries are becoming increasingly worried that the West may abandon Ukraine in return for Russian backing in Syria, as Paris, Moscow and Washington develop closer ties in the fight against the Islamic State jihadist group.
...
"Even if it's not officially on the table, Moscow hopes that if the anti-IS coalition sees the light of day, pressure in the case of Ukraine will lessen and a certain number of countries will say, since we're fighting together, the sanctions shouldn't be renewed," Polish analyst Wojciech Lorenz told AFP." (AFP : Yahoo News :November 23, 2015) (my emphasis)

Let us remind ourselves that on September 7, 2015, long before the tragic events in Paris last Friday (November 20, 2015),

"French President Francois Hollande said Monday that he will propose such a meeting [among the leaders of Russia, Ukraine and Germany in the coming weeks to resolve tensions around eastern Ukraine, in hopes of eventually lifting EU sanctions] in Paris ahead of the U.N. General Assembly later this month.

He said there has been progress in recent weeks in implementing a troubled February peace deal, and said if that continues, "then I will argue for lifting the sanctions." (AP : Yahoo : September 7, 2015) (my emphasis)

And as the "comradeship" between Putin and Hollande grows to fever pitch as they join their forces in the fight against ISIS,

"Lithuania will not take part in any new coalition in which Russia will participate or would like to participate," President Dalia Grybauskaite (right) said Friday.

"To this day Russia is occupying the territory of one country and committing acts of war in two countries, Ukraine and Georgia," she added in the western resort town of Palanga after meeting with her Baltic counterparts.

 

The Latvian foreign ministry for its part said Friday that "the Baltic countries should continue to constantly remind the world about the illegal annexation of Crimea."

"The fight against terrorists and resolving the conflict in Syria should not be at the expense of Ukraine." (ibid Mariella Vitureau and Vaidotas Beniusis) (my emphasis)

The situation in BOTH Ukraine and Syria is ramping up.

Putin is cynically using the situation in Syria to obtain concessions over Ukraine. 

Which poses the sixty-four dollar question.

Who stands to gain the most from the blowing up of those electricity pylons in Ukraine, that has left Ukrainian Crimea bereft of electricity?

(to be continued)

Hot off the news .....

"Russian president has accused Turkey of "stabbing Russia in the back", as reports say two pilots have been killed by Turkmen forces in Syria" (The Telegraph :Tuesday 24 November 2015)

At the same time, Hollande was meeting President Obama at the White House.

"President Obama hosts French President Francois Hollande at the White House Tuesday, and the two leaders will discuss how to ramp up the international coalition against ISIS extremists after the deadly attacks in Paris." (Ali Weinberg : ABC News : Nov 23, 2015)

How are they going to respond to Putin who declared,

"The loss of our aircraft comes in the context of our fight agaisnt terrorism. But today’s loss was a blow in the back by the accomplices of terrorists. I can’t qualify this in any other way. Our plane was downed over Syrian territory by an air to air missile from a turkish F16. It crashed inside Syria, 4 km from the Turkish border. 

"At the time it was engaged it was at 6000m altitude and one kilometre from the Turkish border. In any case our pilots never threatened the territory of Turkey. This is obvious."
...
"We will analyse everything in detail and the serious consequences including for Russia’s relationship with Turkey." (ibid The Telegraph) ( my emphasis)

Bear in mind that Turkey is a member of NATO.

(to be continued)