Putin's 'terror' strategy in Ukraine is failing, as is the Russian economy

On Friday, November 20 2015, I wrote that,

"As Aaron Korewa says,

 "Euromaidan Press recently published a list of the Kremlin's other separatist projects in Ukraine. One of the most active organizations is the Kharkiv Partisans, which operates in northeast Ukraine. The group has claimed responsibility for several IED attacks on both people and infrastructure in the area. Its leader, Oleg Sobchenko, (left) lives in Russia and claims to be a Soviet Army veteran who served on the Afghan border. (Atlantic Council : November 11, 2015)"

Now we learn that yesterday, as Pavel Polityuk and Natalia Zinets report,

"Ukraine's security service said on Thursday it had broken up an armed insurgent group that operated out of Kiev and other major Ukrainian cities and that two people had been killed during the operation.
The SBU security service said it had detained three Russian and four Ukrainian citizens after a shootout in which a special forces officer and the Ukrainian leader of the armed group were killed." (Reuters : Thu Dec 10, 2015) (my emphasis)

And, as reported by AP,

"International observers still witness fighting and the use of banned weapons in eastern Ukraine months after a cease-fire deal was signed, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe said on Thursday.
......
"Instead of redoubling efforts to adhere to the Minsk, we are witnessing a media-driven blame-game," [Alexander] Hug (left) [OSCE deputy chief monitor in Ukraine] said, referring to a recent incident outside the village of Zaitseve between government and rebel lines where a woman was killed by gunfire. "We also see heavy weapons inside agreed withdrawal lines." (Yahoo News: December 10, 2015) (my emphasis)

Is this renewed fighting in eastern Ukraine a response to  US Vice-President Joe Biden, who recently stated on his visit to Kiev that,

""The US stands firmly with the people of Ukraine in the face of continued -- I emphasise continued -- aggression from Russia and Russian-backed separatists," he told Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko." ? (Olga Shylenko and Dmytro Gorshkov :AFP [Yahoo News]: December 7, 2015) (my emphasis)

Biden also stated that,

"...Washington remained determined to see Russia adhere to a shaky Ukrainian peace agreement and hand back Crimea to Kiev." (ibid Olga Shylenko and Dmytro Gorshkov) (my emphasis)

Putin, who thought that his Syrian adventure, could be used as a bargaining chip against Ukraine, and also as a means of having the sanctions against Russia lifted, must have 'blown a fuse' at these statements of Biden.

Added to which,

"The European Union and Ukraine say they will introduce a free trade pact next month as planned despite Russia's threat to take retaliatory trade action if its concerns aren't addressed. Ukraine Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk said on Monday that "this agreement will enter force on January 1, and this agreement is in the interests of the European Union and Ukraine." (AP : Salt Lake Tribune : Dec 11, 2015) (my emphasis)

Scraping the bottom of his propaganda barrel, Putin is now calling in the markers of his Ukrainian oligarch friends, no doubt commanding them to 'do their bit' in attacking the current Ukrainian government. 

We thus have a spate of threats emanating from this group, headed by none other than Ukrainian billionaire Dmytro Firtash (left), owner of London's "Independent Newspaper", who recently said that, 

"..the Ukrainian government is politically bankrupt and will probably fall early next year, his most outspoken criticism of the pro-Western leadership in Kiev since it came to power almost two years ago.

Firtash, a former supporter of ousted Moscow-friendly president Viktor Yanukovich, shelved a plan to return to Ukraine this week after officials there said they would act on a U.S. warrant for his arrest on suspicion of bribery and money-laundering." (Alessandra Prentice :Reuters : [Yahoo News] : December 2, 2015) (my emphasis) (my emphasis)

Then there is Oleksandr Klymenko (right), Ukraine’s former Minister for Tax and Revenue under Viktor Yanukovych, who is now in exile in Moscow.

" [He] has been placed on the European Union’s sanctions list at the request of the post-revolutionary government in Kiev, meaning his assets are at risk and he cannot travel to or through the EU; and now he has decided to come out fighting against the claims.

...

“It is nothing but political persecution aimed at demonising me,” the former minister told The Independent. [ the London Newspaper of, none other than, Dmytro Firtash]". (Kim Sengupta Moscow: The Independent: Wednesday 2 December 2015)

And what about Rinat Akhmetov, Ihor Kolomoyskyi, Andriy Klyuyev?

The call by Joe Biden to the Ukrainian parliamentarians to,   

 

" .... reform the whole prosecution and judiciary," Biden said. "Oligarchs should not be able to influence court and judges... corruption siphons resources from the people and from the economy, and you know it." (Christopher Miller (right): MashableUK : Dec 8, 2015),

seems to have somewhat 'panicked' Ukraine's oligarchs.

If calling in these markers from his Ukrainian 'oligarch' buddies were not enough, Putin is now having to resort to giving a pep talk to his propaganda soldiers at the 10th anniversary of RT; to inspire them to even greater feats of honing their 'propaganda military skills' in the face of the international community beginning to become immune to their lies and distortions of events in Ukraine. (Published on 10 Dec 2015)

And whilst this lavish banquet is thrown for his 'propaganda paratroopers' at RT,  Emre Gurkan Abay reports that,

"The Kremlin’s recent economic policies are unsustainable and could lead to civil unrest, analysts said Wednesday.

As the country is involved in military conflicts in Ukraine and Syria it also faces crippling international sanctions and a crash in the price of oil, the country’s greatest export.

...in an effort to balance the books, President Vladimir Putin's government anticipates cutting health expenditure by 8 percent and education spending by 8.5 percent in 2016. Pension costs are also due to be trimmed by 4 percent. 

“This proposed level of defense spending at the cost of investment in healthcare and education is unsustainable,” Russia and Eurasia expert John Lough (left), of the British think tank Chatham House, told Anadolu Agency.

Predicting that such cost-cutting on vital social projects could lead to protests in Russian cities, Lough also said that sanctions due to be implemented against Turkey will make matters worse “because they will hit the pockets and kitchen tables of large swathes of the population.” 

......
"Mr. Putin must be feeling the pressure," [Hossein] Askari said in reference to economic mismanagement and vast military spending.

These would require political will and a sharp turnaround in policy, he added.

"But sadly for the Russian people, Mr. Putin is obstinate and will not change." (AA : 02.12.2015) (my emphasis)

(to be continued)