There are two events of the last few days that signal a critical juncture in Putin's war with Ukraine.
The first concerns a Russian teenager, Vlad Kolesnikov (left), who,
"...was found dead after taking overdose on Christmas Day,
following a public backlash described by rights groups as 'hideous' over his
criticism of Russian policy [in Ukraine].." (Allison Quinn (right): Daily Telegraph : 28 Dec 2015)
The second event concerns a resolution signed by Putin on the 26th December, a day after Kolesnikov's suicide,
... Gryzlov continues to be a key figure in the Russian power structure.
This is shown by the fact that he remains a permanent member of Russia’s Security Council ... [which].. is in reality Russia’s key decision making body, where all major decisions are discussed and agreed. The Security Council’s 13 permanent members are the most powerful people in Russia. Gryzlov is one of them.
With Putin feeling increasingly confident that Western interest in Ukraine is slackening, he has now brought a tough and reliable man onto the scene who can be relied upon to shape the situation in Russia's interests. (Russia Insider : December 28, 2015) (my emphasis)
Can it therefore be a co-incidence that the Putinversteher, Walter Steinmeier, recently stated that,
"Nevertheless, many important questions remain unresolved. The ceasefire has turned increasingly fragile. Agreement has still not been reached on a special law on local elections in the parts of the Donbas currently under separatist control. The humanitarian situation in these areas has deteriorated sharply in recent months, causing further suffering to local people." (German Foreign Office : 29.12.2015) (my emphasis)
Let us, for a moment, cast our minds back to the Ukrainian 2004 presidential election results that sparked off the first Maidan revolution.
Even in 2004, Putin was telling the then president of Ukraine, Leonid Kuchma, to crush the protestors on Maidan Square, who were protesting against the rigged presidential election results that stated that Putin's candidate, Yanukovich, had won, by using ANY means.
The EU convened a meeting to resolve the critical crisis over the rigged Ukrainian presidential elections in 2004.
And who did Putin send as his representative to this meeting? None other than ..... yes ... you guessed it ... Boris Gryslov!
And what did Gryslov have to say at this meeting?
40,000 miners were bussed to Kiev from the currently rebel-held territories in eastern Ukraine, to crush the Maidan protestors who were protesting the rigged results of the 2004 presidential elections.
Back to the present, we now have Walter Steinmeier stating that,
"... we must continue working to ensure that local elections [in the rebel-held areas] take place at the beginning of 2016 and that the Minsk package of measures be implemented in its entirety, including through the restoration of Ukraine’s complete control over its national borders." (ibid German Foreign Office),
whilst at the same time acknowledging that,
"The fact that the number of ceasefire violations increased again in eastern Ukraine over the Christmas period, rather than decreased, is a worrying development as the year ends." (ibid German Foreign Office).
As the OSCE report of 28 December 2015 also states,
"The SMM observed ceasefire violations in Donetsk and Luhansk regions. In Donetsk region, the SMM saw and heard the use of mortars. The SMM reached Kominternove several days in a row to follow up on reports about the presence of armed persons in the village and the situation of the residents, but its access was restricted*. The SMM encountered other restrictions to its freedom of movement and security incidents." (OSCE : 28 Dec. 2015)
Like Steinmeier, Gryslov will be pushing, "to ensure that local elections [in the rebel-held areas] take place at the beginning of 2016", whilst Putin still maintains FULL control of the border between Ukraine and Russia in the rebel-held areas, even though the Minsk2 agreement states that,
"Restore full control over the state border by Ukrainian government in the whole conflict zone, which has to start on the first day after the local election and end after the full political regulation (local elections in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts based on the law of Ukraine and Constitutional reform) by the end of 2015.." (Daily Telegraph : 12 Feb 2015) (my emphasis)
This link between local elections in the rebel-held areas and the restoring of Ukrainian control over its borders is what Gryslov will be determined to break, especially in light of the increasing pressure being put on Poroshenko to show that he is dealing effectively with the issue of rampant corruption in Ukraine.
As US Vice-President Biden stated in his recent speech to the Ukrainian Rada,
"... it’s not enough to set up a new anti-corruption bureau and establish a special prosecutor fighting corruption. The Office of the General Prosecutor desperately needs reform. The judiciary should be overhauled." (White House : Office of the Vice President : December 09, 2015) (my emphasis)
Today, 30th December 2015,
The leaders of Ukraine, France, Germany and Russia will hold a telephone conference call on December 30." (UT : Dec. 28, 2015)
Whether this will lead to any significant change in Putin really remains to be seen.
The first concerns a Russian teenager, Vlad Kolesnikov (left), who, "...was found dead after taking overdose on Christmas Day,
following a public backlash described by rights groups as 'hideous' over his
criticism of Russian policy [in Ukraine].." (Allison Quinn (right): Daily Telegraph : 28 Dec 2015)The second event concerns a resolution signed by Putin on the 26th December, a day after Kolesnikov's suicide,
" ... appointing permanent member of the Security Council Boris Gryzlov (left)
the plenipotentiary representative of the Russian Federation in the Contact
Group on Settling the Situation in Ukraine." (President of Russia : December 26, 2015) (my italics)
In the case of Vlad Kolesnikov,
"[in] the weeks leading up to his death......
[he] had made it very clear that he had fallen victim to a harassment
campaign for his outspoken political views, telling Ms Bigg that he was
consistently beaten up and harassed and that the only way out he saw was
suicide.
[He] shot to fame last summer after wearing a “Return Crimea”
T-shirt to his school in Podolsk, a move which prompted his school to
expel him and the police to pay him a visit asking where he got the
shirt, according to Radio Liberty. Later, he showed up to a military
enlistment office playing Ukraine's national anthem on his phone,
prompting enlistment officers to diagnose him with a “personality
disorder”. (ibid Allison Quinn) (my emphasis)
"What do we know of Gryzlov? The short answer is surprisingly little, though it is possible to guess more.....
This is shown by the fact that he remains a permanent member of Russia’s Security Council ... [which].. is in reality Russia’s key decision making body, where all major decisions are discussed and agreed. The Security Council’s 13 permanent members are the most powerful people in Russia. Gryzlov is one of them.
With Putin feeling increasingly confident that Western interest in Ukraine is slackening, he has now brought a tough and reliable man onto the scene who can be relied upon to shape the situation in Russia's interests. (Russia Insider : December 28, 2015) (my emphasis)
Can it therefore be a co-incidence that the Putinversteher, Walter Steinmeier, recently stated that,"Nevertheless, many important questions remain unresolved. The ceasefire has turned increasingly fragile. Agreement has still not been reached on a special law on local elections in the parts of the Donbas currently under separatist control. The humanitarian situation in these areas has deteriorated sharply in recent months, causing further suffering to local people." (German Foreign Office : 29.12.2015) (my emphasis)
Let us, for a moment, cast our minds back to the Ukrainian 2004 presidential election results that sparked off the first Maidan revolution.
Even in 2004, Putin was telling the then president of Ukraine, Leonid Kuchma, to crush the protestors on Maidan Square, who were protesting against the rigged presidential election results that stated that Putin's candidate, Yanukovich, had won, by using ANY means.
The EU convened a meeting to resolve the critical crisis over the rigged Ukrainian presidential elections in 2004.
And who did Putin send as his representative to this meeting? None other than ..... yes ... you guessed it ... Boris Gryslov!
And what did Gryslov have to say at this meeting?
"Yes, the Ukrainian elections were not ideal. ... But we have an announced result. And we should stick to that result." (Full documentary can be found here.)
40,000 miners were bussed to Kiev from the currently rebel-held territories in eastern Ukraine, to crush the Maidan protestors who were protesting the rigged results of the 2004 presidential elections.
Back to the present, we now have Walter Steinmeier stating that,
"... we must continue working to ensure that local elections [in the rebel-held areas] take place at the beginning of 2016 and that the Minsk package of measures be implemented in its entirety, including through the restoration of Ukraine’s complete control over its national borders." (ibid German Foreign Office),
whilst at the same time acknowledging that,
"The fact that the number of ceasefire violations increased again in eastern Ukraine over the Christmas period, rather than decreased, is a worrying development as the year ends." (ibid German Foreign Office).
As the OSCE report of 28 December 2015 also states,
"The SMM observed ceasefire violations in Donetsk and Luhansk regions. In Donetsk region, the SMM saw and heard the use of mortars. The SMM reached Kominternove several days in a row to follow up on reports about the presence of armed persons in the village and the situation of the residents, but its access was restricted*. The SMM encountered other restrictions to its freedom of movement and security incidents." (OSCE : 28 Dec. 2015)
Like Steinmeier, Gryslov will be pushing, "to ensure that local elections [in the rebel-held areas] take place at the beginning of 2016", whilst Putin still maintains FULL control of the border between Ukraine and Russia in the rebel-held areas, even though the Minsk2 agreement states that,"Restore full control over the state border by Ukrainian government in the whole conflict zone, which has to start on the first day after the local election and end after the full political regulation (local elections in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts based on the law of Ukraine and Constitutional reform) by the end of 2015.." (Daily Telegraph : 12 Feb 2015) (my emphasis)
This link between local elections in the rebel-held areas and the restoring of Ukrainian control over its borders is what Gryslov will be determined to break, especially in light of the increasing pressure being put on Poroshenko to show that he is dealing effectively with the issue of rampant corruption in Ukraine.
As US Vice-President Biden stated in his recent speech to the Ukrainian Rada,"... it’s not enough to set up a new anti-corruption bureau and establish a special prosecutor fighting corruption. The Office of the General Prosecutor desperately needs reform. The judiciary should be overhauled." (White House : Office of the Vice President : December 09, 2015) (my emphasis)
Today, 30th December 2015,
"The leaders of Ukraine, France, Germany and Russia will discuss prolongating truce deal.
The leaders of Ukraine, France, Germany and Russia will hold a telephone conference call on December 30." (UT : Dec. 28, 2015)
Judging, however, from the response of the Russian public, Putin's police, and Putin's military officials, to the political stand against Putin's war with Ukraine taken by Vlad Kolesnikov, that ultimately led this Russian teenager to take his own life, we should not hold our breath as to the outcome of this Normandy 4 Skype call.
(to be continued)
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