The New Year is upon us, and the DCFTA (Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement) between Ukraine and the EU has come into force.
And, true to form, Putin is spitting nails!
As reported by Letitia Peron and Oleksandr Savochenko of AFP,
" ..... Russia has taken retaliatory measures, suspending its free-trade agreement with Ukraine and banning the import of Ukrainian food starting on Friday." (Yahoo News (AFP) : January 1, 2016) (my emphasis)
To which Ukraine is responding by,
".... [s]tarting from Jan. 10, Ukraine will restrict imports to the
country of 43 Russian products, including vodka, beer, cigarettes, meat,
chocolates, dairy products, animal food and locomotives, according to a
resolution taken at a government meeting on Dec. 30.
The government said it had approved the import restrictions as a response to a trade embargo of Ukrainian food Russia previously announced it would impose from Jan. 1." (KyivPost : Dec. 31, 2015) (my emphasis)
"Agriculture Minister Oleksiy Pavlenko estimated the value of Ukrainian exports that Russia would ban at some $116.4 million, while the value of Russian imports Ukraine planned to ban was some $118.8 million." (ibid KyivPost) (my emphasis)
So what can Putin do now? Why, simply that,
"...the longer that separatists in the DPR and LPR keep creating problems for the Ukrainian central government in Kiev, the longer Moscow can rail against Kiev for not living up to ceasefire and election promises in the breakaway territories." (Ryan Faith : Vice News : 31 December, 2015) (my emphasis)
Which brings us to that Skype conference between Merkel, Hollande, Poroshenko, and Putin last Wednesday. (30 December, 2015)
As reported by BBC News,
"In a statement released on Wednesday, the French government said: "Angela Merkel, Francois Hollande, Vladimir Putin and Petro Poroshenko have reaffirmed their commitment to a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine and to a concerted pullout without delay of heavy weapons."
Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France - the so-called Normandy Four - also discussed preparations for local elections in the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk in early 2016." (BBC News : 30 December 2015) (my emphasis)
If preparations for these 'local elections' in the rebel-held territories of eastern Ukraine were discussed, following these elections, WILL THE FULL conditions of Minsk2 be implemented?
As stated in my last blog entry,
"Like Steinmeier, Gryslov will be pushing, "to ensure that local elections [in the rebel-held areas] take place at the beginning of 2016", whilst Putin still maintains FULL control of the border between Ukraine and Russia in the rebel-held areas, even though the Minsk2 agreement states that,
"Restore full control over the state border by Ukrainian government in the whole conflict zone, which has to start on the first day after the local election and end after the full political regulation (local elections in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts based on the law of Ukraine and Constitutional reform) by the end of 2015.." (Daily Telegraph : 12 Feb 2015) (my emphasis)
This link between local elections in the rebel-held areas and the restoring of Ukrainian control over its borders is what Gryslov will be determined to break, especially in light of the increasing pressure being put on Poroshenko to show that he is dealing effectively with the issue of rampant corruption in Ukraine."
This critical link between elections and the restoration of FULL border control in eastern Ukraine passing back to the Ukrainian military has now been broken by Hollande, Merkel, and Putin.
Putin simply cannot withdraw all his Russian forces, armaments, and rebel-proxies from eastern Ukraine since it would signal a complete failure on his part in the eyes of the Russian people.
In his 2016 New Year address, he explicitly states,
".... Today I would like to extend special greetings to those of our service members who are fighting international terrorism, defending Russia's national interest at distant frontiers showing their willpower, determination, and staunchness. These are the qualities we need all the time" (cf. video below for full address)
Since he regards the frontiers of the rebel-held teritories in eastern Ukraine (AND IN CRIMEA!) as part of the Russian frontier, will he be willing to fulfill both the letter and the spirit of Minsk"?
As Ryan Faith so succinctly puts it,
"A lot has been written about why Putin may have gotten involved in Ukraine's Donbass region following the Great Crimean Heist of 2014.
For
starters, there's the slightly messianic vision of Putin as Protector of
All Russians. He's been making increasingly louder noises about
Moscow's responsibility to safeguard the various ethnic Russians
scattered throughout the post-Soviet republics. (ibid Vice News) (my emphasis)
So, will Putin fulfill the letter and the spirit of Minsk2, the day after these elections are held in the rebel-held territories of eastern Ukraine?
As the old saying goes, "Pigs will fly!"
From this one can only deduce that the hidden agenda of Merkel and Hollande is to get sanctions against Russia lifted!
Watch this hidden agenda unfold as the New Year progresses.
(to be continued)
And, true to form, Putin is spitting nails!
As reported by Letitia Peron and Oleksandr Savochenko of AFP," ..... Russia has taken retaliatory measures, suspending its free-trade agreement with Ukraine and banning the import of Ukrainian food starting on Friday." (Yahoo News (AFP) : January 1, 2016) (my emphasis)
To which Ukraine is responding by,
".... [s]tarting from Jan. 10, Ukraine will restrict imports to the
country of 43 Russian products, including vodka, beer, cigarettes, meat,
chocolates, dairy products, animal food and locomotives, according to a
resolution taken at a government meeting on Dec. 30.The government said it had approved the import restrictions as a response to a trade embargo of Ukrainian food Russia previously announced it would impose from Jan. 1." (KyivPost : Dec. 31, 2015) (my emphasis)
"Agriculture Minister Oleksiy Pavlenko estimated the value of Ukrainian exports that Russia would ban at some $116.4 million, while the value of Russian imports Ukraine planned to ban was some $118.8 million." (ibid KyivPost) (my emphasis)
So what can Putin do now? Why, simply that,
"...the longer that separatists in the DPR and LPR keep creating problems for the Ukrainian central government in Kiev, the longer Moscow can rail against Kiev for not living up to ceasefire and election promises in the breakaway territories." (Ryan Faith : Vice News : 31 December, 2015) (my emphasis)
Which brings us to that Skype conference between Merkel, Hollande, Poroshenko, and Putin last Wednesday. (30 December, 2015)
As reported by BBC News,
"In a statement released on Wednesday, the French government said: "Angela Merkel, Francois Hollande, Vladimir Putin and Petro Poroshenko have reaffirmed their commitment to a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine and to a concerted pullout without delay of heavy weapons."
Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France - the so-called Normandy Four - also discussed preparations for local elections in the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk in early 2016." (BBC News : 30 December 2015) (my emphasis)
If preparations for these 'local elections' in the rebel-held territories of eastern Ukraine were discussed, following these elections, WILL THE FULL conditions of Minsk2 be implemented?
As stated in my last blog entry,
"Like Steinmeier, Gryslov will be pushing, "to ensure that local elections [in the rebel-held areas] take place at the beginning of 2016", whilst Putin still maintains FULL control of the border between Ukraine and Russia in the rebel-held areas, even though the Minsk2 agreement states that,"Restore full control over the state border by Ukrainian government in the whole conflict zone, which has to start on the first day after the local election and end after the full political regulation (local elections in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts based on the law of Ukraine and Constitutional reform) by the end of 2015.." (Daily Telegraph : 12 Feb 2015) (my emphasis)
This link between local elections in the rebel-held areas and the restoring of Ukrainian control over its borders is what Gryslov will be determined to break, especially in light of the increasing pressure being put on Poroshenko to show that he is dealing effectively with the issue of rampant corruption in Ukraine."
This critical link between elections and the restoration of FULL border control in eastern Ukraine passing back to the Ukrainian military has now been broken by Hollande, Merkel, and Putin.
Putin simply cannot withdraw all his Russian forces, armaments, and rebel-proxies from eastern Ukraine since it would signal a complete failure on his part in the eyes of the Russian people.
In his 2016 New Year address, he explicitly states,
".... Today I would like to extend special greetings to those of our service members who are fighting international terrorism, defending Russia's national interest at distant frontiers showing their willpower, determination, and staunchness. These are the qualities we need all the time" (cf. video below for full address)
Since he regards the frontiers of the rebel-held teritories in eastern Ukraine (AND IN CRIMEA!) as part of the Russian frontier, will he be willing to fulfill both the letter and the spirit of Minsk"?
As Ryan Faith so succinctly puts it,
"A lot has been written about why Putin may have gotten involved in Ukraine's Donbass region following the Great Crimean Heist of 2014.
For
starters, there's the slightly messianic vision of Putin as Protector of
All Russians. He's been making increasingly louder noises about
Moscow's responsibility to safeguard the various ethnic Russians
scattered throughout the post-Soviet republics. (ibid Vice News) (my emphasis)So, will Putin fulfill the letter and the spirit of Minsk2, the day after these elections are held in the rebel-held territories of eastern Ukraine?
As the old saying goes, "Pigs will fly!"
From this one can only deduce that the hidden agenda of Merkel and Hollande is to get sanctions against Russia lifted!
Watch this hidden agenda unfold as the New Year progresses.
(to be continued)
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