Obama's gaffe .... Putin's gain?

Politicians are said to choose their words rather carefully, lest they give the 'wrong' impression that can lead to unforseen consequences.

In his final State of the Union address on Tuesday 12 January 2016, Obama 

• either made a mistake in referring to Ukraine as a Russian 'client' state,
• or he sent a signal to Putin that US policy regarding Putin's annexation of Crimea, and his current war with Ukraine, is a somewhat 'legitimate' reaction of Russia towards his Ukrainian 'client' state ', and into which he is pouring resources to 'prevent Ukraine from slipping away from Russia's orbit'!

""Even as their economy contracts, Russia is pouring resources in to prop up Ukraine and Syria -- client states they saw slipping away from their orbit," (Robert Coalson and Tetiana Iakubovych : RFERL : Thursday, January 14, 2016) (Obama's complete address can be found at : ABC News)

Now  Obama's chief speechwriter, Jon Favreau (right),explains that,

"The annual address to a joint session of the U.S. Congress is one of the U.S. president's most comprehensively prepared and vetted speeches." 

Furthermore,

"..[he]  told National Public Radio earlier in the day his office had been working on the speech since "around Thanksgiving."

"Once the new year came and went, there would be a frenzied couple of weeks writing and editing and rewriting, right up until the final speech and then practicing the speech on the last day," Favreau said." (ibid RFERL)

Now the day following Obama's Final State of the Union Address, he and Putin

" ..... spoke by telephone on Wednesday, discussing crises in Ukraine and Syria, the White House said.

"They spent a significant portion of their time discussing the need for the Russians to live up to the commitments that they made in Minsk -- to end their support for separatists that are destabilizing Ukraine right now," said White House spokesman Josh Earnest." (AFP (Yahoo News): 13 January, 2016) (my emphasis)

More significantly,

"Obama told Putin that a key next step in resolving the Ukrainian crisis was for all sides to agree on the modalities of local elections in the Donbas region of Ukraine, the White House said in a statement." (Roberta Rampton (right): Reuters : Wed Jan 13, 2016) (my emphasis)

In other words, all that Obama is saying is that clause 4 of the Minsk2 protocol should now be implemented. 

4. "On the first day after the pullout a dialogue is to start on modalities of conducting local elections in accordance with the Ukrainian legislation and the Law of Ukraine "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts," and also about the future of these districts based on the above-mentioned law. (Wikipedia) (my emphasis)

Recall, however, that Putin, in his recent Bild interview (January 5, 2015, in Sochi), is now demanding that,
 

"..changes to the Ukrainian constitution should be permanent, as is stipulated in the Minsk agreements."? (UNIAN : 11.01.2016) (my emphasis)

In his Bild interview, where he justifies his annexation of Crimea, he also,

"...  blames Ukraine for failing to give autonomy to its eastern regions ... "

Enter Gryslov (right), "a former Russian parliamentary speaker whom President Vladimir Putin handpicked as his personal envoy to the negotiations earlier this month." (Tatiana Kalinovskaya : AFP (Yahoo News) : 13 January, 2016) (my emphasis)

As Tatiana Kalinovskaya explains,

"Ukraine and pro-Russian rebels agreed a new truce deal Wednesday [n.b.: the same day that Obama and Putin had their telephone discussion about Ukraine] that goes into immediate effect and replaces one broken just hours after its signature at the end of last month.

The latest ceasefire was negotiated between Moscow and Kiev envoys in the Belarussian capital Minsk with the help of a senior negotiator from the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE).

Both Ukrainian and OSCE officials said the latest initiative was pushed forward by Boris Gryzlov" (ibid Tatiana Kalinovskaya) (my emphasis)

As I stated in my blog entry of 1 Jan., 2016,

"Putin simply cannot withdraw all his Russian forces, armaments, and rebel-proxies from eastern Ukraine since it would signal a complete failure on his part in the eyes of the Russian people."

It is for this reason that Putin will not fulfill the post election conditions in the rebel held territory of eastern Ukraine of returning the border control between Ukraine and Russia back to Ukraine, as stipulated in Minsk2, and why he is now demanding that changes to the status of eastern Ukraine should become permanent, and not simply last for 3 years.

Recall, also, that the Skype call between Putin, Merkel, Hollande, and Poroshenko on the 30th December 2015, also pushed for elections in eastern Ukraine, as specified in the Minsk2 protocols.

"Special attention was given to the preparation of the Donbas local elections, which are scheduled to take place early next year. All the participants expressed their support for the working group on political issues, which must help define the modalities of the elections between now and the end of January 2016, with the help of the OSCE and the Venice Commission." (Embassy of France in London : 30 December 2015) (my emphasis)

Since these elections

• will come under the intense scrutiny of the international community, 
• be supervised by Ukraine, the EU, Russia, and the OSCE, 

Putin has no other alternative but to demand that changes to the Ukrainian constitution about the 'special status' of the rebel held areas of eastern Ukraine should be permanent, so that their 'special status' can become the next Abkhazia, a region completely controlled by Russia.

Did Obama's speech writers of his final State of the Union address take this into account? Did they ignore the fact that,

".... in his 2016 New Year address, Putin explicitly states,


".... Today I would like to extend special greetings to those of our service members who are fighting international terrorism, defending Russia's national interest at distant frontiers showing their willpower, determination, and staunchness. These are the qualities we need all the time" (cf. video below for full address)

Since he regards the frontiers of the rebel-held teritories in eastern Ukraine (AND IN CRIMEA!) as part of the Russian frontier, will he be willing to fulfill both the letter and the spirit of Minsk2"? (blog entry )

Which brings us back to Obama's remark about,

"Russia is pouring resources in to prop up Ukraine and Syria -- client states they saw slipping away from their orbit"

As Robert Coalson and Tetiana Iakubovych ask,

"... the president's infelicitous comment about Ukraine is all the more difficult to understand. Was Obama referring to Russia's support for former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, the pro-Russian leader who was driven from office by pro-democracy demonstrations in February 2014?

Or did he have in mind Moscow's economic, political, and military support for separatists in eastern Ukraine and Crimea, the Ukrainian Black Sea peninsula that Moscow annexed in March 2014?" (ibid RFERL) (my emphasis)

 

(to be continued)