Is Putin being bought off with Crimea?

BBC News reported today (25/1/2016) that,

• "Russia's economy contracted by 3.7% in 2015, according to preliminary figures published by the country's statistics service.
• Retail sales plunged by 10% and capital investment fell by 8.4% in the economy's worst performance since 2009.
• Even pro-Kremlin media now admit that the country is facing a full blown economic crisis.
• Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev warned earlier this month that the fall could force Russia's 2016 budget to be revised." (BBC News : 25 January 2016)

By contrast, Holly Ellyat (left) of CNBC reported from Davos (cf: also James Quinn : Daily Telegraph) that,

"Despite rampant inflation and only a recent recovery from recession, Ukraine will be able to eke out modest growth in 2016, Ukraine's finance minister told CNBC Thursday.
 ....
Natalie Ann Jaresko [Ukraine Finance Minister] told CNBC on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos.

"We've turned the corner and I think this year, we're looking to see growth and even if it's slight growth, it's growth. Coming out of a recession, restoring stability and providing new jobs and new consumer purchasing power to the people (is the aim)." (CNBC : Thu, 21 Jan '16)(my emphasis)

We now have to ask ourselves the following questions.

(1) Why is the so-called leader of the eastern Ukraine rebel held area of Donetsk,
      Alexander Zakharchenko (right) once again,

• "[refusing] to hold a local ballot in accordance with Ukrainian law
• [banning] the participation of any Ukrainian parties in future local elections [in the rebel held area of Donetsk]"? (UT : Jan. 24, 2016)

(2) Why has the French Finance Minister, Emmanuel Macron, stated on a recent visit to
      Moscow  that,
 

"The goal that we all share is to be able to lift the sanctions this summer because the (Minsk peace) process will have been respected," Macron told French business executives during a visit

to Moscow."? (Yahoo News (Moscow (AFP)) : 25 Jan. 2016) (my emphasis)

But perhaps, most important of all,

(3) Why has US Secretary of State, John Kerry, just last Friday (22 Jan. 2016)

"....held out the prospect of lifting the sanctions if the Minsk agreement is implemented in full.

"With effort and with bona-fide legitimate intent to solve the problem on both sides, it is possible in these next months to find those Minsk agreements implemented," Kerry said in a speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland."? (ibid Emmanuel Macron) (my emphasis)

The statements of Emmanuel Macron and John Kerry throws into sharp relief

• the unbridgeable gulf that has grown between Putin and his proxy, Alexander Zakharchenko, in the rebel-held Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine, 
• as well as the possible understatement of Putin's economic woes by so many western economic pundits, woes that can be ameliorated if sanctions against Russia are lifted.

Poroshenko, however, still has to convince the Ukrainian parliament (the Rada) that the implementation of points 3 & 9 of Minsk1 viz.

• Decentralisation of power, including through the adoption of the Ukrainian law "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts".
•  To ensure early local elections in accordance with the Ukrainian law "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts". (Wikipedia)

has to take place if the Minsk2 agreement is to be fulfilled, and an end to the war between Russia and Ukraine be brought about.

But these are the sticking points for many in the Ukrainian Rada.

To appease his critics in the Rada, President Poroshenko stated that,

"Ukraine will not give its eastern regions greater autonomy until a lasting ceasefire with pro-Russian separatist rebels is in place, President Petro Poroshenko said on Sunday, in comments that could antagonise the rebels and the Kremlin." (Natalia Zinets : Reuters:  Sun Jan 24, 2016) (my emphasis)

Poroshenko added that,

"Another condition is giving international monitors unfettered access to the border between Ukraine and Russia to monitor the flow of troops and arms into eastern Ukraine." (ibid Natalia Zinets) (my emphasis)

However he also warned that,

"Those political forces that want to torpedo the Minsk agreements at any cost...and to block the constitutional process, must clearly understand the consequences of their actions," he said.

"They will lead to the resumption of the 'hot phase' of the conflict, including a full-scale -- and not local, as it has been so far -- conflict with Russia," he added. (RFERL : Monday, January 25, 2016) (my emphasis)

Underscoring Poroshenko's warning, Diane Francis (right) of the Financial Post reports that,

“If Ukraine collapses, another migration of a few million people to the EU will occur,” said financier George Soros during the panel discussion [at Davros].

“The German finance minister [Wolfgang Schaeble (left)] proposed an EU-funded Marshall Plan to help with its migration issues. That should include funds to help pay for Ukraine’s important role in defending Europe against Putin.” (The Vancouver Sun : January 24, 2016)

Yet we have John Kerry and Emmanuel Macron being rather upbeat about the FULL implementation of Minsk2 within a few months from now.

In other words, they envisage

• a full and sustainable ceasefire between Ukraine and Putin's rebel-proxies,
• the implementation of a "temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts",
• early local elections in accordance with the Ukrainian law (and under international supervision) "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts", and
• the giving to international monitors unfettered access to the border between Ukraine and Russia

within a few MONTHS from now. 

The critical condition of Poroshenko that international monitors have "unfettered access to the border" now controlled by Putin, and that Kerry and Macron seem to believe that this will be implemented a few months down the line, is either wishful thinking on their part, or the fact that Putin has decided to 'throw in the towel' and completely abandon his rebel proxies in eastern Ukraine.

For John Kerry and Emmanuel Mecron to expect Putin to 'throw in the towel', without him losing face, seems simply to be 'too good to be true'. 

Now recall that on Apr. 27, 2015, 9 months ago, Angela Merkel stated that, 

"The decision by all heads of states [during the European Council meeting in March] means that the duration of the sanctions is related to completing the Minsk agreements of February this year. " (UT : Apr. 27, 2015) (my emphasis)

However,

"... Merkel's comments did not clarify whether Russia's ongoing illegal occupation of Crimea was tied to maintaining sanctions. The EU, US and other western nations imposed sanctions on Moscow last year following their seizure of Ukrainian territory." (ibid UT) (my emphasis)

Is the ghost of Catherine the Great, that German "daughter of Prince Christian of Analt-Zerbst, a small German principality", [who] at "15 years old, [was selected by] Empress Elizabeth of Russia to be the wife of her nephew and heir, the future Emperor (Czar) Peter III, of Russia, and who "annexed Crimea "in violation of the Peace Treaty of Kϋϛϋk Kaynarca.", hovering over Angela Merkel? (Crimea Historical Society)

Is it not ironic that the two Germans, Catherine the Great and Angela Merkel, are giving Crimea to Russia, the first by conquest, and the second by ..... political expediency?

Is it therefore any wonder that Poroshenko is now putting Crimea back on the agenda, expecting to,

".... bring the Russian-occupied part of eastern Ukraine and annexed Crimea back under government control by the year’s end."? (KyivPost :  Jan. 14, 2016)

(to be continued)