Putin beginning to flounder

Timothy Ash  (left) speculates about that 'closed' meeting (15.01.2016) in the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad  between Victoria Nuland, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State, and Vladislav Surkov,, that,

"... Moscow seems to be willing to deal – and this was likely the topic of discussion for Nuland/Surkov, and also for Boris Gryzlov in his recent trip to Kyiv. The question will be how far Poroshenko wants to push Moscow at this stage, and will the West be cajoling him along to accept a compromise which still might be difficult for him to sell back home, and could still destabilize domestic politics in Ukraine. (KyivPost : Jan. 18, 2016) (my emphasis)

 Victoria Nuland                        Vladislav Surkov

 

Vladislav Surkov, known as the Kremlin's 'gray cardinal' by Russians, was

" .... brought [ ] in from the cold [ by Putin] as his personal advisor on the breakaway regions of Abkhasia and South Ossetia, as well as Ukraine, which is the position he holds to this day." (Cicero Magazine : June 17, 2015)

Timothy Ash further speculates that,

" I think what is clear is that Russia is now facing a much more difficult economic outlook than even a few months ago. The drop in oil prices over the past month, amid the Saudi-Iran schism, seems to have been the game-changer for Moscow – and survival of the regime seems to now be the name of the game (or at least there is serious concern how long Russia’s balance sheet can hold up to ensure social stability) (ibid KyivPost) (my emphasis)

Supporting his view that, "survival of the regime seems to now be the name of the game" is the fact that,

• Russian gas giant Gazprom on Tuesday fired off a new salvo in Moscow's feud with Ukraine by demanding some $2.5 billion for Kiev allegedly breaching its supply contract. (AFP (Yahoo News) :January 19, 2016) for gas that Ukraine DID NOT BUY from it. Furthermore, "Moscow failed to explain why Gazprom had decided to ask for the money nearly four months after it was allegedly due." (cf: Ania Tsoukanova and Max Delany) 

and,

• [Russian] Finance Minister Anton Siluanov (right) said the budget could only balance this year at $82 a barrel for oil. “We have to take well-thought-out measures on how to bring the budget in accordance with the new realities,” he said. “In the current difficult conditions, we must speak of a very thrifty, strict budget policy, in order not to end up with high deficit levels or a high volume of debt.” (Daniel Schearf: VOA : January 13, 2016)

Added to which,

".. French presidential envoy Jacques Audibert and his German counterpart Christoph Heusgen came to Kiev as part of a sudden resurgence in efforts to resolve one of Europe's deadliest crises since the 1990s Balkans wars." (Ania Tsoukanova and Max Delany : AFP (Yahoo News) : 20 January, 2016) (my emphasis)

Jacques Audibert and Christoph Heusgenmet,

"... also visited "practically all" lawmakers to see if they intended to pass a stalled Western-backed constitutional amendment granting special status to rebel-run parts of the eastern regions of Lugansk and Donetsk.

But a Ukrainian source said the French and German diplomats were met with a stern rebuff." (ibid Ania Tsoukanova and Max Delany) (my emphasis)

This sudden flurry of meetings being attended by top ranking Putin cronies, and focussed on trying to obtain a 'diplomatic face-saving' implementation of the Minsk2 protocols for Putin, also comes amid a growing dissatisfaction with the red tape, incompetence, and corruption that now rules annexed Ukrainian Crimea.

As Shaun Walker reports,

"Crimea deserves more than it has got over the past two years,” said Leonid Grach, the last communist leader of the territory before the Soviet Union collapsed.
“It should have been an example region of what can be done ... instead it feels like we are Russia’s unloved stepdaughter.”

....

“The money [Putin has poured into Ukrainian Crimea] has not gone to solve problems but has lined the pockets of the Crimean nouveaux riches,” he said. (The Guardian : Tuesday 19 January 2016) (my emphasis)

As another indicator of the survival strategy that Putin is now confronted with, there is an uptick in his flooding the EU with verifiable 'false' propaganda.

As reported by Andrew Rettman (left),

"The Azov Regiment, a squad of irregular, nationalist fighters in Ukraine, has debunked a YouTube clip threatening terrorist attacks if Dutch people vote No in a referendum on the EU-Ukraine trade treaty." (EU Observer : BRUSSELS, 19. Jan. 2016) (my emphasis)

The EU now has its own "Disinformation Review",

"... It is a weekly publication, which collects as many examples of the Russian disinformation attacks as possible, and in real time.
...
The review is being prepared by our recently established special EU Task Force (StratCom East) countering the Russian disinformation campaign." (EEAS : 14/11/2015)

This uptick in the spreading of 'false' propaganda about Ukraine by Putin's propaganda machine, together with the recent cyber attacks emanating from Russia on Borispol Airport and the Ukrainian electricity grid, is further consolidating Ukraine as a state that is becoming truly independent from Russia.

As Timothy Ash puts it,

"The harder that Moscow now presses Ukraine in the trade, economy, debt and energy fields, the more independent of Russia Ukraine becomes, and the weaker foothold that Russia will have for the future in Ukraine.

Thus having lost the battle for “heart and minds” in Ukraine after the annexation of Crimea and the military intervention in Donbas, there will be little reason for Ukrainians to economically interact with Russia – and even more to develop other economic relationships Westwards. (ibid Timothy Ash) (my emphasis)

And lest we forget.

Ukrainian army pilot Nadia Savchenko

Still held in a Russian prison.

(to be continued0