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Tuesday 22 December 2015

Putin faces a bleak 2016. His 'maskirovka' mask is about to slip from his face.

As night follows day, it was to be expected that as January 1st draws near, Putin's Kremlin cronies have been working overtime to devise as many stumbling blocks for Ukraine as is possible, so that Ukraine will be hobbled as the full implementation of  the Ukraine-EU Trade Pact comes into force.

Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks during his annual end-of-year news conference in Moscow, Russia, December 17, 2015. REUTERS/Maxim ZmeyevFirst we have Putin announcing that he will,

"... not abandon Russians living in southeast Ukraine to Ukrainian nationalists, the state-run RIA news agency quoted him as saying in a documentary due to be broadcast later on Sunday." (Vladimir Soldatkin : Reuters : Sun Dec 20, 2015) (my emphasis)

What this really means is that Minsk2 will never be fully implemented. 

Then we have Putin's glove puppet, the erstwhile Dmitry Medvedev.

"Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev has signed a decree on the introduction of a food embargo against Ukraine in response to the country joining anti-Russian sanctions, the Interfax news agency reported Monday.

“Starting Jan. 1, 2016, Russia will extend the economic measures for Ukraine in connection with it joining anti-Russian sanctions by the European Union and the United States,” Medvedev said at a meeting with deputy prime ministers on Monday." (Moscow Times : Dec. 21 2015) (my emphasis)

Notice the 'excuse', however. Instead of admitting that this action is a direct response to the upcoming implementation of the Trade Pact between the EU and Ukraine, that old chesnut about Ukraine joining anti-Russian sanctions if pulled out of the fire.

As Valentina Pop (left) reports,

"Moscow said it would go through with punitive tariffs on Ukrainian products in January after European efforts to head off Russian retaliation against a sweeping EU-Ukraine trade deal failed. " (Wall Street Journal : Dec. 21, 2015) (my emphasis)

As EU trade commissioner Cecilia Malmstroem (right) remarked,

“There wasn’t enough flexibility from the Russian side … this process is now over.” She said most of Russia’s concerns “aren’t real”. She also said if Ukraine had bowed to Russia’s demands “it would have made the entry into force of the DCFTA impossible.” (Andrew Rettman : EUobserver : 21. Dec. 2015) (my emphasis)

Rettman further reports that,

"EU capitals, also on Monday (20 Dec. 2015), by written procedure, extended the life of Russia economic sanctions by six months.

They did it because even sanctions critics, such as Italy, say it's not complying with the “Minsk” ceasefire accord on Ukraine." (ibid Andrew Rettman) ( my emphasis)

RT reports, however, that,

"Russia didn’t ditch negotiations with Europe over its free trade agreement with Ukraine, said Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday. The EU left the negotiations with the words “game over,” which isn’t “very European and intolerant,” (RT : 22 Dec, 2015) (my emphasis)

Rettman also reports that,

"Klimkin said Putin “is in full control of Donbass [east Ukraine]. In every mercenary or other illegal unit there’s a regular Russian officer.” (ibid Andrew Rettman) ( my emphasis)

This was confirmed by,

Pro-Russian separatist rebels stay on January 27, 2015 in Enakievo village near Donetsk, Estern Ukraine (Getty Images)"A 'friendly' shelling of one of the [rebel] units resulted in four soldiers killed and another six wounded.

"Another fact of the deaths of Russian soldiers has been established: two Russian staff officers were killed in an explosion in the village of Bezimenne (Novoazovskiy district). They acted as military advisers in the 9th Separate Motorized Rifle Regiment (Novoazovsk) of the 1st army corps," (Ukraine Today : Dec. 21, 2015) (my emphasis)

And if this were not enough,

"Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev on Monday ordered his vice ministers to start preparing legal documents to sue Ukraine over the $3-billion loan Kiev has failed to repay to Moscow." (Sputnik : 21.12.2015) (my emphasis)

Ukrainians will never warm to Mr Yatsenyuk, but they might see him as the kind of tough-minded technocrat their country needs in its current turmoilTo which Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk responded that,

"...the [Ukrainian] government had introduced a moratorium on the payment of Ukraine's $3-billion loan to Russia and was ready to go to the court over the issue." (ibid Sputnik) (my emphasis)


Arseniy Yatsenyuk is also correct when he,

" .... called the debt - incurred in December 2013 - a "political bribe" from Moscow to former President Viktor Yanukovych, who was facing mass street protests at the time. Mr Yanukovych fled to Russia in February 2014." (BBC News : 21 December 2015) (my emphasis)

It would therefore seem as though Putin's Syrian gambit has not quite succeeded as he wished.
  • EU sanctions have been extended for another 7 months
  • the Trade Pact between Ukraine and the EU will be going ahead
  • Ukraine is willing to go to court over that $3 billion 'Yanukovivch bribe', and
  • Russians will be denied cheap Ukrainian food imports.
Moscow supermarket - file image

The holiday season in Europe has begun, and European politicians are winding down and wending their way towards their homes and their families for the festive celebrations
Putin, however, faces a New Year of
  • continuing sanctions, 
  • an economy that will be driven further down the slopes of negative growth as the price of oil continues to fall, 
  • the integration between Ukraine and the EU continuing to develop, as evidenced by the coming implementation of a visa-free regime between the EU Schengen group and Ukraine, and
  • the further impoverishment of the Russian people.
What will he now do?
(to be continued) 

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