"Russian President Vladimir Putin likely realizes that his offensive in the Donbas has essentially stalled and that for now he cannot take more Ukrainian territory, not without sustaining heavy casualties among his regular military forces and triggering additional Western sanctions." (Atlantic Council : 21 Dec., 2015) (my emphasis)
Added to which,
This is why,
" ... "Russian special services are intensifying their activities in peaceful [Ukrainian] cities, trying to destabilize the situation and trying to show that Ukrainian law enforcement bodies and Ukrainian authorities are not able to protect their citizens." (ibid Ihor Kozak)
This realization by Putin that his offensive in eastern Ukraine is not quite working out as he expected when his war with Ukarine was launched is now coming on top of the fact that even Russian businessmen seem to have had enough of the fallout of Putin's war with Ukraine.
Potapenko and Grudinin
- Russia's economy is faring poorly as the New Year approaches. Gross domestic product has swung back to a level last seen in the first of 2008 and the economy has essentially stagnated over the last seven years.
- Even a rise in oil prices would not solve the economic problems that Russia is currently facing.
- of the 200,000 businesspeople against whom the authorities brought criminal charges in 2014, 83 percent lost their businesses. More proof of how dire the threat to property rights has become in Russia (Moscow Times : Dec. 10 2015) (my emphasis)
Meanwhile, as reported by UNIAN,
"Russian proxies have mounted more than 35 armed attacks on the
Ukrainian forces participating in the Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO) in
Donbas, eastern Ukraine, on Friday, according to the ATO Headquarters'
press service" (UNIAN ; 25 Dec. 2015) (my emphasis) (full size image here)
Even more troubling for Putin,
This fall, as Ukraine’s army battled Russia-backed separatists in the country’s far-off east, she had rallied neighbors to oust the visiting clergy [from the Moscow Patriarch] and replace them with a priest from a Ukraine-led church." (James Marson : Wall Street Journal : 25 Dec. 2015) (my emphasis)
This is further reflected by the fact that,
"A conservative priest who lost his high-level job at the Russian Orthodox Church assailed Russia's "immoral elites" Friday and predicted a national catastrophe if the country fails to allow free public discussion.
Putin is on the verge of loosing the support of the Russian Orthodox Church.
"[Father Vsevolod] criticized Russian Orthodox Church Patriarch Kirill for failing to
listen to critical voices and predicted that Kirill would be replaced
soon" (ibid Vladimir Isachenkov) (my emphasis)
If this were to happen, Putin would be bereft of the unwaveruing and uncritical support he has received from Patriarch Kirill since he first became president of Russia.
Patriarch Kirill has been the moral crutch that Putin has leaned upon to justify the actions that he has taken in both Crimea and eastern Ukraine.
How will the Russian people respond to the dismissal of Father
Vsevolod Chaplin?
(to be continued)
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