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Saturday 26 December 2015

Putin has no Plan "B" to extricate himself from his war with Ukraine. He may also be on the brink of loosing the uncritical support of the Russian Orthodox Church.

Ihor Kozak (left) recently wrote that,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin likely realizes that his offensive in the Donbas has essentially stalled and that for now he cannot take more Ukrainian territory, not without sustaining heavy casualties among his regular military forces and triggering additional Western sanctions." (Atlantic Council : 21 Dec., 2015) (my emphasis)

Added to which,

Exported.; dnp;"... retired US Army General Wesley Clark (right), former NATO Supreme Allied Commander, who visited Ukraine seven times in 2015, "Ukraine is a work in progress by Putin. He has multiple channels to attack Ukraine, economically, politically, diplomatically, militarily." (ibid Ihor Kozak) (my emphasis)

This is why,

" ... "Russian special services are intensifying their activities in peaceful [Ukrainian] cities, trying to destabilize the situation and trying to show that Ukrainian law enforcement bodies and Ukrainian authorities are not able to protect their citizens." (ibid Ihor Kozak)



This realization by Putin that his offensive in eastern Ukraine is not quite working out as he expected when his war with Ukarine was launched is now coming on top of the fact that even Russian businessmen seem to have had enough of the fallout of Putin's war with Ukraine.

"Three [Russian] businessmen — Potapenko, his neighbor at the forum roundtable, farm boss Pavel Grudinin, and Crimean zoo director Oleg Zubkov (pictured from left to right) — together gathered more than 2 million hits on YouTube with videos of speeches lambasting the authorities. The three work in different branches of business, but are united in their complaints of red tape, corruption and the deaf ear of the political elite to demands for reform." (Eva Hartog (left) : Moscow Times : Dec. 18 2015) (my emphasis)

Potapenko and Grudinin

Sergei Alexashenko (left) further informs us that,

  • Russia's economy is faring poorly as the New Year approaches. Gross domestic product has swung back to a level last seen in the first of 2008 and the economy has essentially stagnated over the last seven years.
  • Even a rise in oil prices would not solve the economic problems that Russia is currently facing.
  • of the 200,000 businesspeople against whom the authorities brought criminal charges in 2014, 83 percent lost their businesses. More proof of how dire the threat to property rights has become in Russia (Moscow Times : Dec. 10 2015) (my emphasis)
Sergei Alexashenko exposes merely the tip of the iceberg of reasons for the 'imploding' Russian economy.
Hostilities in Donbas as of December 25 / Image from mediarnbo.org
Meanwhile, as reported by UNIAN,

"Russian proxies have mounted more than 35 armed attacks on the Ukrainian forces participating in the Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO) in Donbas, eastern Ukraine, on Friday, according to the ATO Headquarters' press service" (UNIAN ; 25 Dec. 2015) (my emphasis) (full size image here)

Even more troubling for Putin,

Father Volodymyr, a priest from the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, Kiev Patriarchate, leading a church prayer service in Mali Dmytrovychi on Nov. 15."Three Russian Orthodox priests arrived at the village church here one afternoon in October, packed gilded icons, censers and chandeliers into a moving van, and drove off.

Their departure marked a victory for Nadiya Myakshyna, a small, 58-year-old woman with an impish smile.

This fall, as Ukraine’s army battled Russia-backed separatists in the country’s far-off east, she had rallied neighbors to oust the visiting clergy [from the Moscow Patriarch] and replace them with a priest from a Ukraine-led church." (James Marson : Wall Street Journal : 25 Dec. 2015) (my emphasis)

This is further reflected by the fact that,

"A conservative priest who lost his high-level job at the Russian Orthodox Church assailed Russia's "immoral elites" Friday and predicted a national catastrophe if the country fails to allow free public discussion.

FILE  - In this file photo taken on Sunday, July  22, 2012, Father Vsevolod Chaplin, chairman of the Synodal Department for the Cooperation of Church ...Father Vsevolod Chaplin (right), who headed the Moscow Patriarchate's department for cooperation between church and society, was relieved of his duties Thursday and his department was disbanded." (Vladimir Isachenkov : AP [Yahoo News] : 25 Dexc. 2015) (my emphasis)

Putin is on the verge of loosing the support of the Russian Orthodox Church.

"[Father Vsevolod] criticized Russian Orthodox Church Patriarch Kirill for failing to listen to critical voices and predicted that Kirill would be replaced soon" (ibid Vladimir Isachenkov) (my emphasis)

If this were to happen, Putin would be bereft of the unwaveruing and uncritical support he has received from Patriarch Kirill since he first became president of Russia. 

Patriarch Kirill has been the moral crutch that Putin has leaned upon to justify the actions that he has taken in both Crimea and eastern Ukraine.

 How will the Russian people respond to the dismissal of  Father Vsevolod Chaplin?

(to be continued)

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