Putin denying Russians access to the truth about his war with Ukraine.

"As fierce exchanges of artillery and mortar fire grip Shyrokyne, there are rising fears of a new offensive towards Mariupol. The daily clashes here make a mockery of the ceasefire agreement signed in Minsk in February." (Daily Telegraph : 30 May, 2015) (my emphasis)

So wrote Tom Parfitt (left) from Shyrokyne yesterday.

 “Shyrokyne is a strategic height,” said Yevgeny Adarenko, a Ukrainian military spokesman. “If we give it up completely there will be no point defending the settlements around it.”(ibid Tom Parfitt) (my emphasis)

Yet whilst the daily clashes between Ukrainian soldiers and Puitin's Russian and rebel   around Shyrokyne continues apace,

" French President Francois Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel have called on Russian President Vladimir Putin to rapidly implement measures agreed under the Feb.12 Minsk ceasefire, Hollande's office said in a statement." (Reuters: Mail Online : 29 May 2015) (my emphasis) (pic: Putin, Merkel, & Hollande)

"Diplomats and officials from the four countries will meet in Paris on Jun.10 to review progress in the Minsk process, the French statement said." (ibid Reuters)

There is, however, a rather large fly in the Minsk2 protocol 'ointment' that Merkel and Hollande are still vigorously trying to apply to the war between Ukraine and Putin's Russia viz. 

Putin's constant denial that there are Russian troops fighting alongside his proxies in eastern Ukraine.  (see: Hiding in Plain Sight: Putin's War in Ukraine [which] provides irrefutable evidence of direct Russian military involvement in eastern Ukraine) (Atlantic Council : May 27, 2015)

A month ago, Bradley Klapper and Ken Dilanian of Associated Press reported that,

"American officials briefed on intelligence from the region say Russia has significantly deepened its command and control of the militants in eastern Ukraine in recent months, leading the U.S. to quietly introduce a new term: "combined Russian-separatist forces." (left) The State Department used the expression three times in a single statement last week, lambasting Moscow and the insurgents for a series of cease-fire violations in Ukraine." (Business Insider UK : Apr. 30, 2015) (my emphasis)

Yet neither Merkel nor Hollande are willing to refer to the pro-Putin combatants in eastern Ukraine as, the combined Russian-separatist forces, even in the face of the recent capture by Ukrainian armed forces of two Russian men who are members of the regular Russian army.

And to prevent the Russian people from breaking free of Putin's propaganda that there are no Russian soldiers fighting in eastern Ukraine,

".... Russian president Vladimir Putin passed a law that made information related to peacetime Russian military casualties a secret, [and] the Kremlin has denied that two Russian men captured by Ukrainian armed forces are members of the regular Russian army. ( Christopher Harress : International Business Times : 29 May, 2015) (my emphasis)

What is rather disturbing about this new law of Putin's is that his propaganda machine has deliberately used the wife of one of the captured Russian men to practically denounce her own husband on Russian TV as a liar, an echo of the 'denouncements' that took place during the era of Stalin.

  
This new law of Putin's that now makes it a crime to report on the death of any Russian soldier, including any reporting by the relatives of the fallen soldier, throws into sharp relief witness reports that,

"...in recent days [they have seen].. Russian army massing troops without insignia and hundreds of pieces of unmarked weaponry on the border with Ukraine.

Asked if this indicated Russia planned an invasion of Ukraine, Kremlin spokesman Mr Peskov (left) told a conference call with reporters: "I find the wording of this question, 'if an invasion is being prepared', inappropriate as such.". (ABC News : May 29, 2015)

"Ilya Yashin (right), said: "This [law] shows that the war with Ukraine — undeclared but ongoing — is a major sore spot for Putin.

"This ... [law] should be seen as a threat to activists, politicians and journalists who deal with this." (ibid ABC) (my emphasis)

More importantly, this law should also be seen as a threat to the Russian people themselves who will be denied the truth when Putin's combined Russian-separatist forces invade Mariupol, and the body bags of Russian soldiers flow across the border back to Russia.

If Putin can treat his own constituents, the Russian people, with such contempt by denying them access to the truth about the Russian fallen in eastern Ukraine, what chance, if any, does either Merkel or Hollande have in convincing him "to rapidly implement measures agreed under the Feb.12 Minsk ceasefire"?

The Ukrainian take-over of the border between Russia and eastern Ukraine, currently controlled by the combined Russian-separatist forces, is only six months away, according to the Minsk2 protocols.
   
Will Putin ever allow this take-over to happen?

As the old saying goes, "Pigs will fly"


(to be continued)

Will Mariupol be Putin's last stand?

Yesterday I posed the question, "For how much longer can Putin delude the Russian people?"

 And yesterday, Josh Rogin wrote that,

"Russia is so desperate to hide its military involvement in Ukraine that it has brought in mobile crematoriums to destroy the bodies of its war dead, say U.S. lawmakers who traveled to the war-torn country this spring." (Bloomberg View : 26 May, 2015) (cf. also: TV Dozhd)

On September 1, 2014, Reid Standish had already reported that,

"Though Moscow steadfastly denies its soldiers are fighting in Ukraine, Russian troops were captured in eastern Ukraine last weekend, claiming they inadvertently strayed into Ukrainian territory. The members of the Russian 98th Airborne Division are now being held in Kiev, and when news broke of their capture, their mothers went on camera (video below: In Russian) to plead with Putin to ensure their sons’ safe return" (Foreign Policy : September 1, 2014) (my emphasis)

 

Since then, overwhelming evidence has been collected from a plethora of various sources about the direct, and continuing, involvement of Russian military personnel and armaments in eastern Ukraine.

As reported by Flora Drury,

"A freight train pictured carrying a convoy of tanks towards the Ukrainian border looks to escalate tensions between the two sides even further....

The picture, taken on a mobile phone, comes just days after a huge convoy, including rocket launchers, military trucks without licence plates and armoured personnel carriers, was photographed driving along a road near the town." (Mail Online: 27 May 2015)

And as recently as six days ago,

"At a hospital in Kiev, Ukraine’s capital, diplomats from the group, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, interviewed two men said to be Russian soldiers captured by Ukrainian forces. They published a report saying the pair had confirmed that they were serving in the Russian armed forces at the time of their capture in Ukraine, on May 16." (Andrew E. Kramer : New York Times : May 21, 2015) (my emphasis)

But if Putin is now desperately trying to conceal the increasing flow from eastern Ukraine of body-bags containing fallen Russian soldiers, as well as the growing mountain of evidence of the direct involvement of Russian soldiers and the flow of sophisticated military hardware to the rebel-held areas in eastern Ukraine, he simply cannot conceal the increasing dire state of the Russian economy from the Russian people.

Many analysts are predicting that, "for the Russian economy, the worst is yet to come".

Putin, on the other hand,

"Speaking at a business forum Tuesday, [] called on businesses to expand until the sanctions are lifted. Putin mentioned that some Western nations "are beginning to see the light" but he didn't say what his hopes were based on." (ABC News : Moscow — May 26, 2015) (my emphasis)

Maybe he is basing his 'optimistic' judgement that EU sanctions against Russia will be lifted in July on the fact that he has his ardent admirers in the EU who will clamour that they be lifted, and that he is now promising that,

" ...... Cyprus, Greece, and Hungary - the leading critics of EU sanctions - will be first in line to restart food exports [to Russia] if relations improve." ( Andrew Rettman : Euobserver : 20. May, 2015) (left: Orban [Hungary] Tsipras [Greece] Anastasiades [Cyprus])

Putin's optimism is, to a certian extent, underpinned by President Obama who continues to deny supplying Ukraine with lethal 'defensive' weaponry with which to defend itself against sophisticated Russian weapons entering eastern Ukraine.

"....The president [ ] had strong words about Russia’s involvement in Ukraine [during a meeting with with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg at the White House].

“We had a chance to discuss the situation in Ukraine and the increasingly aggressive posture that Russia has taken and we affirmed that NATO is the cornerstone, not just of transatlantic security but in many ways is the cornerstone for global security,” Obama said. (EuroNews : 26/05/2015) (my emphasis)

"Words", however, "butter no parsnips". 

JoinInfo reports that,

"The U.S. Congress has again declared the urgent need to provide Ukraine with lethal weapons. Bill Pascrell (left), one of the legislators known for his constant support of Ukraine, once again reminded of the issue of weapons supply to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. He announced it yesterday at a ceremony in the U.S. Congress in honor of the 75th anniversary of the Ukrainian Congress Committee of America (UCCA), Joinfo.ua reports.

Like the Putinversteher Angela Merkel and Walter Steinmeier, who are digging in their heels over their 'unflinching support' for the failing Minsk2 'ceasefire', President Obama is also digging in his heels, but this time over supplying Ukraine with 'lethal' defensive weaponry against the "tanks and that huge convoy, including rocket launchers, military trucks without licence plates and armoured personnel carriers", flooding into the rebel-held territory of eastern Ukraine.

Putin's current flooding of eastern Ukraine with sophisticated military hardware and Russian soldiers can only mean that Mariupol is still very much in his sights.

On March 19, 2015, former US ambassador to Ukraine, Steven Pifer (left), suggested that,

"A separatist/Russian attack on Mariupol would remove that concern. Mr. Obama would face intense political pressure to provide weapons. In this case, Ms. Merkel probably would not try to dissuade him.

Mariupol has assumed importance as a key indicator of how far the Russians want to go in Ukraine. If they make the wrong choice, the conflict will rage again, the West will react with new sanctions and greater support for Kyiv, and West-Russia relations will plunge to an even lower point." (Ukraine Today : Mar. 19, 2015) (my emphasis)

But will an attack on Mariupol by Putin really be a 'red line' for the West? 

Is Putin willing to take this risk to shore up the crumbling façade of his ability to constantly delude the Russian people into believing that there are no Russian soldiers who are dying in eastern Ukraine, or that the Russian economy is not really as bad as their own daily experience is telling them that it is?

(to be continued)

For how much longer can Putin delude the Russian people?

The fourth Eastern Partnership summit in Riga (21-22 May 2015) has come and gone. In the Joint Declaration of all those countries in attendance very little that was said was new. The Partnership will continue, whilst re-affirming that,

"The participants of the Summit stress that the Eastern Partnership aims at building a common area of shared democracy, prosperity, stability and increased cooperation and is not directed against anyone." (Joint Declaration of the Eastern Partnership summit (Riga, 21-22 May 2015) 

We now have, looming on the horizon, the fact that,

"[t]he EU measures [imposed upon Putin's Russia] end in July unless they are renewed by consensus. But EU leaders, at a summit in March, announced a “political agreement” to extend them until the end of the year." ( Andrew Rettman : Euobserver: 20. May, 2015) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile Putin, whose Russian sanctions against the EU expires on 7th August 2015,

" .... says [that] firms from Cyprus, Greece, and Hungary - the leading critics of EU sanctions - will be first in line to restart food exports if relations improve." (ibid Andrew Rettman) (my emphasis)


What this really tells us is that far from weathering the 'sanctions storm',

"Year-on-year food price inflation soared to a high of 24.7 percent in March, driven up by a steep devaluation of the ruble and Russia's bans on a range of food imports from the West last August in response to Western sanctions over the Ukraine crisis." (Moscow Times : Apr. 28 2015) (my emphasis)

Even chocolate is becoming something of a 'delicacy' in Putin's Russia.

"Overall year-on-year food price inflation soared to a high of 24.7 percent in March, according to state statistics service Rosstat."

"All of this leads to real, high-quality chocolate becoming a delicacy, which will not at all be affordable for everyone," the center's head Elizaveta Nikitina said in the statement." (Moscow Times : Apr. 21 2015)

And in the midst of ordinary Russian citizens having "slashed spending on food and other basic consumer items by almost one-quarter over the last three months", (Moscow Times :  Apr. 23 2015),

"Following the capture by Ukraine army of 2 GRU special forces officers in Donbas May 17, Russia general staff ordered immediate evacuation of the 3rd Brigade troopers back to Togliatti from Bryanka, Luhansk oblast, UNIAN reports May 18, citing Novoe vremya." (Zik : Monday 18 may, 2015) (my emphasis)

"The evacuation was ordered immediately after the Ukraine army demonstrated irrefutable facts of the presence of paratroopers in Donbas." (ibid Zik) (my emphasis)

Even more interesting, Daisy Sindelar reports that,

"Novorossia has a flag, an anthem, and a news service. But it may no longer have a future, if it ever did....The project -- to combine breakaway regions of Ukraine into an independent, pro-Russian state known as New Russia, or Novorossia -- appeared to breathe its last this week with an announcement by a top separatist official." (RFERL : Tuesday, May 26, 2015) (my emphasis) (picture right: Novorossia demonstrators in St. Petersburg)

Then we have the recent assasination of the separatist leader, Alexei Mozgovoi (left), "including his press secretary and armed guards -- [who] were shot dead Saturday while travelling in an area under his control in the renegade eastern province of Lugansk." (Dmitry Zaks : AFP : May 24, 2015) (my emphasis)

Caution should, however, be exercised when considering the political implications of the evacuation of Russian paratroopers from the Lughansk oblast in eastern Ukraine, the death of the imperialist 'Novorissia' dreams of Putin, and the eruption of internal strife amongst Putin's proxies in eastern Ukraine.

We should bear in mind that, as David Blair reports,

"President Petro Poroshenko (right) of Ukraine told the BBC that his country was in a “real war” against Russia and that he did not trust President Vladimir Putin. However, Mr Poroshenko said there was “no alternative” to a negotiated settlement. " (Daily Telegraph : 20 May 2015) (my emphasis)

 Yet again should we be reminded of the build-up of Russian forces and sophisticated military equipment, not only in eastern Ukraine, but also in Ukrainian Crimea. It is no wonder that,

"Oleksandr Turchynov (left), a former president who now chairs the Ukrainian National Security Council, said that Russia had deployed nuclear-capable Iskander missiles in the occupied region of Crimea. (right)" (ibid David Blair) (my emphasis)

Turchynov is now suggesting that, "Ukraine is open to “consulting” on the deployment of US missile defences [against the nuclear-capable Iskander missiles in the occupied region of Crimea] 

No doubt Putin is 'spitting nails' at this suggestion of Turchynov, especially in view of,

"Nato's two-week training exercise in the [Arctic] region - which began on the same day as Russia's tests - will be based in the north of Norway, Sweden and Finland. It will involve 115 fighter planes and 3,600 troops from nine countries.

The Arctic Challenge Exercise will also involve troops and planes from the US, Britain, Germany, France and the Netherlands - all Nato members - as well as neutral Switzerland." (BBC News : 26 May, 2015)



We now await Putin's next move.

(to be continued)

Merkel is finally placing herself firmly in Putin's camp.

"German Chancellor Angela Merkel has said the European Union's policy toward Eastern Europe is not intended to curtail Russian influence in the region. The EU is expected to reaffirm ties to six former Soviet republics.

In her speech in the German parliament Thursday, Merkel emphasized that "since Vilnius, marked progress has been achieved, for example with the association agreements with Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia."
But she also made it clear that the "Eastern Partnership is not part of the EU's enlargement policy" and that "we should not foster false hope." (DW Deutsche Welle : 21.05.2015) (my emphasis)

There could be no clearer statement by the Putinversteher Merkel that, for all her bluster about Minsk2 and occupied Crimea, her sympathies lay entirely with Putin, at the expense of Ukraine.

Merkel is actually saying that Putin's influence on Ukraine should not be curtailed. How else could her statement be interpreted when the 'Eastern Partnership' comprises the countries of Georgia, Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus, Armenia, and Azerbaijan?

Furthermore, as Giorgi Lomsadze writes,

"In a smack-down to Georgia and Ukraine’s European aspirations, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on May 21 that the two countries should not have expectations for a visa-free regime with the EU anytime soon." (Eurasianet : May 21, 2015) (my emphasis)

In contrast, David Cameron (below left), British Prime Minister, is,

"Supporting the continued enlargement of the EU to new members but with new mechanisms in place to "prevent vast migrations across the Continent" (BBC News : 13 May 2015) (my emphasis)

Unlike Merkel, Cameron is in favour of supporting Ukraine in its efforts to become a fully fledged member of the EU. 

At today's Riga summit about the 'Eastern Partnership' he will be pushing not only for EU reforms, but also for EU enlargement.

Katya Adler (left) informs us that, with the economic problems being faced by many EU member countries,

"there is a widespread hunger for reform in the EU - from the north amongst the Scandinavian countries to Europe's southern reaches." (BBC News : 21 May 2015) (my emphasis)

Cameron is well aware that reforming the EU is fraught with competing interests.

And whilst Merkel may support Cameron on some elements of EU reform, where Ukraine is concerned she has dug in her heels on giving Putin what he wants, as evidenced by her sticking like glue first to the failed Minsk1 'ceasefire', and now to the hopelessly failing Minsk2 'ceasefire'.

Is it any wonder that Victoria Nuland (right), U.S. Assistant Secretary of State, on her recent visit to Moscow,

"[now expects] to explore ways of bolstering a fragile ceasefire in eastern Ukraine between Ukrainian government forces and pro-Russian separatists and of implementing other aspects of a peace agreement forged in Minsk several months ago" (Breitbart News : 19 May 2015) (my emphasis),

and that some are viewing her call for greater US involvement, in ensuring that the Minsk2 proposals are fully implemented, as a counter to Merkel bending over backwards to accomodate Putin's criminal hold over Ukraine and Ukrainian Crimea?

In particular, Nuland is not only concerned with the fragile 'ceasefire' between Putin's forces and the Ukrainian army in eastern Ukraine, but also with the implemention of, " other aspects of a peace agreement forged in Minsk several months ago".

And whilst all this 'diplomatic' to-ing and fro-ing is going on, Dmitry Zaks informs us that,

"Kiev lawmakers on Thursday annulled five crucial security agreements with Moscow that had allowed Russia to transport troops to a separatist region of Moldova and purchase weapons that are only produced in Ukraine." (Kiev AFP : 21 May,2015) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, as Peter Leonard informs us,

"Ukraine is open to considering proposals to place a ballistic missile-defense system on its territory to ward off the risk of attacks from Russia, a senior Ukrainian defense official said Wednesday. So far no one has offered." (Associated Press | May 21, 2015) (my emphasis)

And as further evidence of direct Russian involvement in eastern Ukraine, Christian Borys reports that,

"Russia is using advanced drones to monitor the conflict zone in eastern Ukraine, according to Ukrainian forces who claim to have shot down two of the aircraft this month.

The announcement comes shortly after Ukraine’s capture of two men it says are Russian special forces troops, and will be used as further evidence of Russia’s involvement in a conflict it has always denied playing a part in." (The Guardian : 21 May 2015)

Merkel has finally come clean by saying that the,

"Eastern Partnership is not part of the EU's enlargement policy" and that "we should not foster false hope.". 

In other words, Merkel is really saying, "To hell with the hopes of Maidan".

In effect, Merkel is saying, "To hell with the Ukrainian people".

(to be continued)

Is there a 'reset' (à la Hilary Clinton) between Putin and Obama?

On Monday I mentioned that,

"Ukrainian forces claimed to have captured two Russian special forces officers fighting in eastern Ukraine, in what would be the first capture of Russian personnel – if confirmed – since a ceasefire deal signed in February." (Roland Oliphant : The Telegraph :17 May 2015) (my emphasis) (cf. also BBC News)

And Reuters now reports that,

"Russia's foreign ministry on Tuesday demanded the right to visit two citizens detained last week in eastern Ukraine who Kiev says are Russian soldiers guilty of carrying out "terrorist acts" on its territory......

The Defence Ministry of the Russian Federation ... has already said these citizens are not currently serving in the Russian armed forces," the ministry statement added.

TASS news agency quoted Russian Defence Ministry spokesman Major General Igor Konashenkov on Monday as saying the two prisoners had served in the Russian armed forces but were no longer Russian soldiers on May 17, the day they were captured." (Reuters : 19 May,2015)

Meanwhile,

"On Tuesday, Nato's Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg (left) called for an end to snap exercises by Russia close to the Ukrainian border, and demanded Russia be "more transparent when it comes to their military activities". (BBC News : 19 May 2015) (cf. also : John-Thor Dahlburg : Associated Press [AP]: 19 May, 2015) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, after meeting with Sergey Lavrov (right), Putin's dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, for the first time in three months,

"Stoltenberg said he called on the Russians to withdraw their forces from Ukraine and to stop backing the armed insurgency in that country's east." (ibid John-Thor Dahlburg) (my emphasis)

And underscoring Stoltenberg calling for, "an end to snap exercises by Russia close to the Ukrainian border", Ukrainian President Poroshenko,

"..[w]hen asked whether he feared a summer offensive by Russia, Mr Poroshenko said: "I not fear anything [sic].  
I believe they are preparing an offensive and I think we should be ready and I think that we do not give them any tiny chance for provocation. That will totally be their responsibility."
Mr Poroshenko added that, despite not trusting Mr Putin, he had no option but to have faith in diplomacy." (ibid BBC News : 19 May 2015) (my emphasis)

As reported by Reuters (17 May, 2015), "Poroshenko has to keep in diplomatic step with the West, whose political and financial help he needs."

Following on from the recent meeting between John Kerry, Putin, and Lavrov in Sochi, Victoria Nuland (left) flew to Moscow for talks with two Russian deputy foreign ministers.

Breitbart News informs us that,

"Nuland was expected to explore ways of bolstering a fragile ceasefire in eastern Ukraine between Ukrainian government forces and pro-Russian separatists and of implementing other aspects of a peace agreement forged in Minsk several months ago." (Breitbart News : 19 May 2015) (my emphasis)

Dmitry Peskov, Putin's mouthpiece at the Kremlin was,

"[a]sked if Nuland’s visit was a sign of improving ties [between the US and Putin], [to which he responded]

 “Yes, when President Putin was meeting with Minister Lavrov and Secretary of State Kerry … it was mentioned that a closer dialogue … was needed.” (ibid Breitbart News) (my emphasis)

Many are speculating that these meetings of Kerry and Nuland signify that a new relationship between Obama and Putin ( a reset a' la Hilary Clinton?) is being forged, possibly at the expense of Ukraine. Poroshenko, however, dismisses these speculations.

 But is it just possible that Obama is now willing to trade Ukraine for Syria's Assad?

It cannot be a co-incidence that suddenly Ukraine's new laws condemning Nazi and Communist symbology,

"President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko signed four laws: "On the condemnation of Communist and National Socialist (Nazi) totalitarian regimes in Ukraine and prohibit the promotion of their symbols"; "On access to the archives of repressive organs of the communist totalitarian regime 1917 - 1991 years"; "On perpetuation of victory over the Nazis in World War II 1939 - 1945 years" and "On the legal status and the memory of fighters for Ukrainian independence in the twentieth century." (google translate)

has come under criticism from both Putin and some western commentators. 

Thus, e.g. Leonid Bershidsky (left) argues that,

"The "decommunization" laws are not only pointless, they also show the chasm that still separates Ukraine from its goal of joining the Western world." (Bloomberg View : May 19, 2015)

What is rather sad about this onslaught against these laws, laws which have serious faults that should be openly discussed and corrected,  is the fact that for many their response is simply to view Ukraine through the lens of these laws, thus supporting Putin in his warped view that all Ukrainians should be tarred with the 'fascist' brush.

How quickly, and how sad, that many have forgotten the de-nazification program of the allies after WWII. (cf. Wikipedia)

(to be continued)