The recent secret discussions between Putin, Merkel, and Hollande, and Putin and President Obama. A sell-out of Ukraine?

As I reported on Wednesday, on Monday (22 June 2015),

"The Kremlin says leaders of Russia, France and Germany have discussed the Ukraine crisis before a new round of diplomatic efforts." (Associated Press:22/06/2015)

Conspicuously absent from this three-way conversation was, of course, the President of Ukraine itself, Petro Poroshenko.
 
We are now informed that, after an absence of speaking to each other,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin called his US counterpart Barack Obama on Thursday (25 June, 2015) to discuss the conflict in Ukraine, the Islamic State group's advances and a deal on Iran's nuclear program." (AFP : 26 June, 2015) (my emphasis)

As Jim Kuhnhenn reports,

"The call from Putin came just days after the Russian leader spoke with French President Francois Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel about the situation in eastern Ukraine, a day before Paris talks between the foreign ministers of Russia, France, Germany and Ukraine." (US News : June 25, 2015) (my emphasis)

And while Putin and President Obama were having their private conversation about Ukraine,

"Ukraine’s president, Petro Poroshenko, has signed into law measures which would allow foreign troops to enter the country as a peacekeeping force in Kiev’s conflict with pro-Russia rebels [and the Russian army!].

The legislation could also, potentially, see Ukraine house weapons of mass destruction – including nuclear devices." (World Bulletin : 26 June 2015 Friday) (my emphasis) (cf. also Putin's propaganda mouthpiece, RT)

There can be no co-incidences in these sequence of events.

And underlining President Poroshenko's signing of this law into effect is the fact that,

"Inside Ukraine, where pro-Russian separatists [and Russian soldiers] are battling Ukrainian forces, [General] Breedlove (right) said "we see a force that has been trained, that is led by Russian leadership, ... and is ready to do whatever mission is required of it in the Donbass (region)."


"I don’t think Mr. Putin is done in eastern Ukraine," Breedlove told reporters, and Kiev, despite Moscow's hopes, was still looking to the West for support." (Phil Stewart and Adrian Croft : Reuters : Thu Jun 25, 2015) (my emphasis)

Let us further remind ourselves that,

"President Vladimir Putin has said Russia will put more than 40 new intercontinental ballistic missiles into service this year...

...Tensions are high over Russia's role in the conflict in eastern Ukraine." (BBC News : 16 June 2015) (my emphasis)

 

"Speaking at an arms fair, Mr Putin said the weapons would be able to overcome even the most technically advanced anti-missile defence systems." (ibid BBC News) (my emphasis) This prompted NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg (left) [to state] that, "This nuclear sabre-rattling of Russia is unjustified, it's destabilising and it's dangerous." (ibid BBC News) (my emphasis) 

So what 'secret' deal over the war between Putin and Ukraine is being hatched between Merkel Putin, and Hollande, and also between Putin and President Barak Obama?

Are they setting up President Poroshenko to accept, as [Austrian Putin apologist] Johannes Hahn, the commissioner for European Neighborhood Policy and Enlargement Negotiations, has stated that,

 

" .... Kyiv needs to carry out the “last” points of the Minsk agreement and not wait for Russia and the Russian-controlled militants to carry out their portion of the agreement."? ( EuroMaidan Press : 24/06/2015)(my emphasis)

Putin himself has,

"...emphasized the need for Ukraine to conduct political settlement and provide social and economic assistance to the eastern region, according to the Kremlin." (Associated Press:22/06/2015) (my emphasis) 

 

And in keeping with hiding the body-bags of Russian soldiers who have fallen in Ukraine from the Russian people and the world at large, Putin is now cracking down on US reporting of Russia's involvement in the war in eastern Ukraine.

As reported by Melinda Haring,

"Russia's Foreign Ministry has banned US investigative journalist Simon Ostrovsky (left) from working in Russia. On June 4, it denied a press visa for Ostrovsky, an Emmy award-winning documentary filmmaker and journalist best known for his coverage of the Ukraine crisis for VICE News.

The denial came only days after Ostrovsky contacted Russian soldier Bato Dambayev—who fought in Ukraine as part of the 37th Motorized Infantry Brigade—as part of the journalist's effort to prove that Russian soldiers have fought alongside Russian-backed separatists." (Atlantic Council : June 24, 2015)

And as Maria Tsvetkova reports,

"The mother of a Russian soldier captured in Ukraine says her son [Alexander Alexandrov (right)] never told her he was quitting the army, raising doubt about Kremlin assertions that the soldier was no longer serving when he crossed the frontier.
......

Speaking publicly about her son's case for the first time, his mother said he had never told her of any plans to quit the army.


"No, he said nothing," she said in an interview in her house in the rural village of Rozhki 350 km (215 miles) north of Togliatti, the town on the River Volga where her son served before going to Ukraine." (Reuters : Thu Jun 25, 2015) (my emphasis)

Bearing in mind this international exposure of Putin's lying about the involvement of, and deaths of, Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine what, exactly, was privately discussed between:

(a) Putin, Merkel, and Hollande on Monday (22 June 2015),

and

(b) Putin and President Obama yesterday (25 June, 2015)?

And why has this led to President Poroshenko,

" [signing] into law (25 June 2015) measures which would allow foreign troops to enter the country as a peacekeeping force in Kiev’s conflict with pro-Russia rebels [and the Russian army!].

Has President Poroshenko pre-empted the impending call of Merkel, Hollande, and President Obama for Ukraine to,

"...carry out the “last” points of the Minsk agreement and not wait for Russia and the Russian-controlled militants to carry out their portion of the [Minsk2] agreement"? (ibid EuroMaidan Press)

(to be continued)

Putin, Merkel, and Hollande. Selling out Ukraine?

Yesterday,

"The foreign ministers of Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany tried [..] to revive high-end diplomatic efforts to end the conflict in eastern Ukraine, amid escalating fighting that is throwing doubts on a shaky peace. .. (below : Klimkin (Ukraine), Fabius (France), Lavrov (Russia), Steinmeier (Germany))

[The]meeting was part of a new round of diplomatic efforts amid a spike in fighting in eastern Ukraine between pro-Russia separatists and Ukrainian troops. Ukraine and Western powers say Russia arms the rebels, which Moscow denies." (Angela Charlton : Associated Press : Jun 23, 2015) (my emphasis)

Furthermore that,

"...one of the highest officials of the European Commission responsible for Ukraine (we agreed not to disclose his name) suddenly announced that there were problems in Kyiv’s implementation of the Minsk Agreement.

“Yes, we are talking about Russia’s violations of the Minsk Agreement,” he said. “But is Ukraine doing everything to comply with the Minsk requirements? Why don’t you [Ukraine] move ahead with providing special status to the Donbas? After all, you can do that  immediately and demonstrate Kyiv’s good will toward carrying out Minsk,” the official explained."(ibid Angela Charlton) (my emphasis)


In the subsequent statement released by French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius on behalf of the participants,

".... the meeting called for quick de-escalation of hostilities to allow progress on longer-term aspects of the peace deal. Those include an array of political, security, humanitarian and economic questions such as the contentious issue of how much autonomy the rebel regions could achieve." (ibid Angela Charlton) (my emphasis)

The contentious issue of how much autonomy the rebel regions could achieve has become a critical point in the arm-twisting of Ukraine by Germany and France since we now learn that,

" .... [Austrian] Johannes Hahn (left), the commissioner for European Neighborhood Policy and Enlargement Negotiations, during his visit to Kyiv last week, tried to convince Ukrainian authorities that Kyiv needs to carry out the “last” points of the Minsk agreement and not wait for Russia and the Russian-controlled militants to carry out their portion of the agreement." (Serhiy Sydorenko, European Pravda, June 23, 2015 in EuroMaidan Press : 24/06/2015) (my emphasis)

What should be borne in mind is that Austria is very sympathetic towards Putin.

As Daria Chernyshova has reported,

"...[A] senior Austrian lawmaker and head of the Parliament Assembly of the Council of Europe's (PACE) monitoring committee said on Monday.

"When we are only working on sanctions, then we have endless frozen conflicts," Stefan Schennach (right) told reporters on the sidelines of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) summer session in Strasbourg.

"[In] the political way, I think it would be much more helpful, [for] the Russians, the Ukrainians and the Europeans, not the Americans, this is a European question, [to] solve the problem," Schennach emphasized." (Sputnik : 22.06.2015)

Let us remind ourselves that in the full sequenced proposals of the Minsk2 agreement, the first 4 deal exclusively with the proposed 'ceasefire', and how it should be carried out. (Wikipedia)

Yet, as Angela Charlton has reported, yesterday's meeting of the foreign ministers of Ukraine, France, Germany, and Russia, called for, "quick de-escalation of hostilities to allow progress on longer-term aspects of the peace deal".

This is an admission, even on the part of that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, Lavrov (left), that the porposed Minsk2 'ceasefire' seems to have all but broken down.

The LAST three SEQUENCED proposals deal with constitutional reform and decentralization in Ukraine that will take into account "peculiarities of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, agreed with elected representatives of these districts after elections within those districts have been held."

The question that now needs to be asked is whether Merkel, Putin, and Hollande, who had a private Skype meeting about Ukraine without Poroshenko,

also discussed over the phone on Monday (Associated Press:22/06/2015) whether Ukraine should be,

"[carrying] out the “last” points of the Minsk agreement and not wait for Russia and the Russian-controlled militants to carry out their portion of the agreement." (ibid EuroMaidan Press)

After all,

"French President Francois Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel lamented the "insufficient" progress in resolving the Ukraine crisis after a telephone conversation Monday with Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to a source close to the French president." (AFP : June 22, 2015) (my emphasis)

Putin seems to have answered this question when he,

"...emphasized the need for Ukraine to conduct political settlement and provide social and economic assistance to the eastern region, according to the Kremlin." (ibid  Associated Press:22/06/2015) (my emphasis)

The Ukrainian politicians are right, however, in arguing that,

"... the Minsk Agreement deliberately consists of separate stages and that there is no point in carrying out the last point when Moscow is not even complying with the first one .... " (ibid EuroMaidan Press) (my emphasis)

From this, one can only conclude, as does a Ukrainian Foreign Ministry source, that,

“They [the EU] want the imitation of success in the settlement.

However, they do not have any answers to our questions about why they’re not reacting to the destruction of Shyrokino, Debaltsevo, Uhlehorsk.

This is very frightening because it means we [Ukraine] are being left to face Russia alone.  But our position is firm: the Minsk agreements are a composite and currently no point of the Minsk agreement is being fulfilled.." (ibid EuroMaidan Press) (my emphasis)

If the EU seems to be on the verge of been trapped by Putin's 'maskirovka' strategy over Ukraine NATO, on the other hand, seems finally to be confronting Putin with a military build-up of their own.

How ironic.

(to be continued)

Putin, Greece, and Ukraine.

In 1985 the late Margaret Thatcher gave a speech to the American Bar Association where she argued against giving terrorists the “oxygen of publicity.”

"And we must try to find ways to starve the terrorist and the hijacker of the oxygen of publicity on which they depend. In our societies we do not believe in constraining the media, still less in censorship. " she said." (David Gerstman (left) : L.I :  Monday, April 8, 2013) (my emphasis)

More recently, Peter Pomarentsev (right) has informed us that,

"The Kremlin exploits the idea of freedom of information to inject disinformation into society. The effect is not to persuade (as in classic public diplomacy) or earn credibility but to sow confusion via conspiracy theories and proliferate falsehoods." (Interpretermag : pdf file) (my emphasis)

At yesterday's (19 June, 2015) "St. Petersburg International Economic Forum", Putin was on form displaying precisely what Margaret Thatcher warned against viz. giving himself the 'oxygen of publicity on which he depends', as well as Peter Pomarentsev's insight that the 'Kremlin exploits freedom of information to sow confusion via conspiracy theories and proliferate falsehoods' about Russia's war with Ukraine.

It should be noticed how he purposefully evaded answering the question about his war with Ukraine, and his annexing of Ukrainian Crimea by switching to WWII, Iraq, and Libya, then stating that,

"... we are not the original cause of those crisis phenomena which happened in Ukraine"

How deceptive that he does not mention that the Ukrainian Maidan occurred because he bribed Yanukovich not to sign the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement, but rather that Ukraine should be emraced by the 'bear' hug of his Eurasian Customs Union.

This was also part of his political strategy to attack the EU itself.

As Ian Traynor reported,

"Ukraine has abruptly ditched its plans to sign a historic pact with the European Union aimed at shifting the country out of the Kremlin's orbit. The decision handed victory to President Vladimir Putin in the increasingly vicious tug of war between Russia and the west for Ukraine's future, and looked like turning a special EU summit next week focused on Ukraine into a debacle." (The Guardian : Thursday 21 November 2013) (my emphasis)

He is now employing exactly the same tactic by 'luring' the Greek prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, with 'wads of money' to pull Greece out of the cataclysmic economic mire that threatens to engulf it.

It is for this reason that, as Neil MacFarquhar reports,

"... [Putin] and [Alexis Tsipras] produced a grand pageant of solidarity, friendship and supposed economic cooperation at Russia’s annual gathering for global business executives Friday, but the embrace seemed mostly about thumbing their noses at Europe." (New York Times : June 19, 2015) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, Sandy MacIntyre and Nataliya Vasilyeva report that,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin said after Friday's talks with Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras that a prospective Russian natural gas pipeline should help Greece service its debt, but the Kremlin said the question of direct Russian financial aid to Greece was not discussed.

..."We are starting a new era in Greek-Russian relations and we consider you who live here [in Russia] to be playing a very important part in this effort," Tsipras said. " (AP : 20 June, 2015) (my emphasis)

However, if Putin throught that by 'seducing' Tsipras he would cause panic within the Eurozone countries, Merkel (left) soon put paid to that idea of his.

"The emergency summit of leaders from eurozone nations will be held in Brussels on Monday, after negotiations on Thursday failed.

"Let me make it very clear as to the expectations," Mrs Merkel said on Friday.

"Such a summit can only become a summit of decisions if there is something to base a decision on.

"It is up to the three institutions [the ECB, IMF and European Commission] to assess this, and up to now we don't have that assessment." (BBC News : 20 June, 2015) (my emphasis)

At the same time, next week,

"A ministerial meeting between Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany aimed at finding a rapid solution to the conflict [in Ukraine] will be held next week in Paris". (Barbara Tasch (right) : Business Insider UK : Jun. 17, 2015)

She further reports that,

"Tensions might be running high in Paris. European Union governments announced on June 17th that the economic sanctions against Russia would be upheld until January 2016. The EU hopes that prolonged sanctions will put more pressure on the Kremlin to end conflict in Ukraine." (ibid Tasch) (my emphasis)

What must rather be sticking in the craw of Tsipras is the fact that the IMF is willing to countinue to bail out Ukraine even if it defaults on its debts, whilst it is demanding that Greece institutes radical reforms, especially in the area of its extremely generous  pension payments.

And sticking in Putin's craw is the fact that,

"Cash-strapped Ukraine promised on Friday to make the next payment on a disputed Russian loan it had threatened to stop servicing due to Moscow's rejection of more lenient terms." (Dmitry Zaks : AFP : 20 June, 2015)

"Russia had warned it would ask the International Court of Justice in The Hague to declare Ukraine in default if it failed to make a scheduled $75-million interest payment on Saturday. Jaresko said the money would be delivered on Monday because banks remained closed over the weekend." (ibid Dmitry Zaks) (my emphasis)

Putin's contemptable threat about taking Ukraine to the Int. Court of Justice if his money is not paid to-day (20 June, 2015) rather says it all.

Perhaps Mikhail Khodorkovsky (right) is correct when he said that,

"The Russia-Ukraine conflict has no short-term solution and is part of a fabricated conflict with the West to distract everyday Russians from corruption and incompetence ... " (RFERL : Saturday, June 20, 2015) (my emphasis)

It would therefore be in Putin's interest to continue with his war against Ukraine.

Even more telling, and in support of Khodorkovsky's contention about the fabricated nature of Putin's war with Ukraine, is the fact that,

"A former finance [Russian] minister [Alexei Kudrin (left)] proposed on Thursday bringing forward the next presidential election to give his ally, Vladimir Putin, a stronger mandate to reform the economy and guide Russia through a financial "storm".

Russia is sliding into recession, with economic sanctions imposed by the West over Moscow's role in the Ukraine conflict taking a toll and lower global oil prices depriving the country of its main source of revenue." (Oksana Kobzeva and Polina Devitt : Reuters : Thu Jun 18, 2015)

Signs of desperation?

(to be continued)

Putin's latest nuclear threat.

In yesterday's blog entry (16 June, 2015) I wrote that,

"Having painted himself into a 'diplomatic' corner over his war with Ukraine, and with the Russian economy now in more than a mere parlous state due to falling oil prices and the effects of the ongoing sanctions that he has brought upon the head of the Russian people, Putin's 'maskirovka' strategies seem to be crumbling in his hands.

It is at this stage that he is at his most dangerous."

True to form,

"Russia has threatened to provide an "adequate response" to the prospect of increased US military presence in Eastern Europe and the Baltics, after the governments of both Poland and Lithuania confirmed that they are in talks with Washington about storing heavy US arms." (Damien Sharkov : Newsweek : 15/6/15) (my emphasis)

And this "adequate response" now turns out to be that,

"President Vladimir Putin has said Russia will put more than 40 new intercontinental ballistic missiles into service this year...

...Tensions are high over Russia's role in the conflict in eastern Ukraine." (BBC News : 16 June 2015) (my emphasis)

As the article goes on to explain,

"Speaking at an arms fair, Mr Putin said the weapons would be able to overcome even the most technically advanced anti-missile defence systems." (ibid BBC News) (my emphasis)

Nato Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg (left) stated that, "This nuclear sabre-rattling of Russia is unjustified, it's destabilising and it's dangerous." (ibid BBC News) (my emphasis)

On March 9, 2015, Stratfor Global Intelligence published their scenario for Putin's military options to invade eastern Ukraine. 

And yesterday Nicole Gallina informed us that,

"Specialists from the group “Mirotvorets” acquired documents from the Russian General Staff that confirm Russia’s intentions to invade and occupy the Ukrainian territories east of the Dnipro river." (EuroMaidan Press : 17/06/2015) (my emphasis)

Advisor to the Ukrainian Interior Ministry Anton Herashchenko (left) subsequently wrote on his Facebook page on Tuesday that,

"In April 2015, the General Staff of the Russian Federation approved another working plan for the occupation of left-bank Ukraine. The meeting on the approval of this plan was held on April 8-9 in St. Petersburg, in the headquarters of the Western Military District," he said." (utr news : Tuesday, 16 June 2015) (my emphasis)

He further informed us that,

".... the General Staff of the Russian Federation is planning actions to discredit the Ukrainian military.
"In simple terms: they are planning to shoot a few dozen residents of the militant-occupied Ukrainian territory of the Donbas, to film this and to blame the Ukrainian side for this," he said." (UNIAN : 16.06.2015) (my emphasis)

If Putin's generals are willing to:

• shoot a few dozen people
• film this shooting
• and then blame the Ukrainians for perpetrating this heinous crime

is it any wonder that RT, Putin's own mouthpiece, now informs us that,

"A journalist for a Moscow opposition newspaper was detained, beaten, and accused of committing drug offenses in the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR)." (RT : June 17, 2015) (my emphasis)

This journalist, Pavel Kanygin (right), was,

" ... in Donetsk to cover an anti-war demonstration on Monday. The following day, he was stopped by a group of men, who he said introduced themselves as “DPR security officials.” They searched him, and after finding a Ukrainian journalist’s business card, accused him of working for pro-Kiev media." (ibid RT) (my emphasis)

Journalist Pavel Kanygin is lucky to have gotten off so lightly for wishing to inform the Russian people of the anti-war demonstration in Donetsk last Monday.  (cf: blog entry)

"The assassination of Anna Politkovskaya (born 1958), the Russian journalist, writer and human rights activist, took place on 7 October 2006. She was well known for her opposition to the Chechen conflict and criticism of Russian President Vladimir Putin" (Wikipedia) (my emphasis)

Yet, as I have stated, " Putin's 'maskirovka' strategies seem to be crumbling in his hands."

No amount of nuclear sabre-rattling on Putin's part will be able to conceal the fact that there are thousands of Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine still trying to fan the flames of his "Novorossiya" imperial dreams, just as the dream of  Partiarch Kirill (right) of the Russian Orthodox Church, who wants to reign as leader of the Orthodox world, now has to contend with the fact that,

"... [o]ne of the main factors contributing to the collapse of that "Russian world" is the schism rapidly forming within the Russian Orthodox Church (ROS). It now seems inevitable that the Ukrainian Orthodox Church and its parishes will formally break with the ROS." (Vladimir Ryzhkov : The Moscow Times: Jun. 15 2015)

Let us not forget that throughout Russian history, the Russian Orthodox Church has always been a powerful pillar of support of the Czars, the Soviet Kremlin, and now of Putin himself.

Thanks to the investigation of journalist Simon Ostrovsky, yet again is the lie of Putin that there are no Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine, exposed to the world. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2zssIFN2mso)

(to be continued)

Putin is now at his most dangerous

In my last blog entry I stated that Putin has painted himself into a corner. As an indicator of this we have

(i) The Pentagon [..] poised to store battle tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and other heavy weapons for as many as 5,000 troops in several Baltic and Eastern European countries, to deter any possible further Russian aggression in Europe (Reuters : 13 Jun 2015) (my emphasis)

 (ii) Moscow-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine have backpedalled on legal proposals which they issued that did not recognise Russia's annexation of the Crimea peninsula. (Tom Parfitt : Daily Telegraph : 10 Jun 2015) (my emphasis) 

and, most significant of all,

(iii) In possibly the first large protest against Russia's war in a separatist-controlled city, some 500 residents in Donetsk staged a rally and blocked the main Artema Street.....(Johannes Wamberg Andersen : KyivPost : June 15, 2015)

 What is disconcerting for the Donetsk separatist leader, Aleksandr Zakharchenko, is that the protesters shouted,

"You are hiding behind our backs," the news agency AFP quoted residents as shouting. Others chanted "Shame!" and "Stop the War!" or criticized the separatist leadership." (RFERL : 16 June,2015) (my emphasis)

“We want military equipment to be withdrawn from the area,” said Yulia, a 26-year-old cook, who refused to give her surname citing safety concerns. “They shell and then leave, and we get the backlash because they’re shooting from where we live. Ambulances, emergency services and utility services don’t come here. We’ve been abandoned.” (Kateryna Choursina : Bloomberg Business : June 15, 2015) (my emphasis)

And all that Zakharchenko (left) could say to the assembled protestors was that,

"Whatever was agreed in Minsk, I say that the Donetsk People's Republic in an independent country. I will not be part of Ukraine. I will be open with you. Yes we have to shoot from our territory. But thanks to our artillery shooting from near the 41st school, we destroyed a [Ukrainian] battery." (video ibid Rferl) (my emphasis)

Even more significant, Zakharchenko,

"... blamed Kyiv for the most recent hostilities and for the protest itself, claiming: "This rally was organized by the Ukrainian leadership." (ibid Rferl) (my emphasis)

True to form, and like Putin himself, he is sticking to the Kremlin mantra to, "blame everything on Ukraine".

And yet as recently as (06 June, 2015),

"[i]n an interview with an Italian newspaper (Corriere della Sera) (left) last week, Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, said the fact that the rebel territories were willing to remain inside Ukraine was “a sound precondition for the start of substantial negotiations". (ibid Tom Parfitt) (my emphasis)

Is this an indicator that Putin now realises that he has painted himself into a 'diplomatic' corner over his war with Ukraine, and that he is now developing an 'off ramp' by gingerly trying to loosen his ties with his rebel proxies in eastern Ukraine?

Whilst he may be trying to bamboozle the international community with his diplomatic 'maskirovka' strategy, let us not forget that he continues to reinforce his military occupation of eastern Ukraine by flooding it with sophisticated Russian weaponry and Russian soldiers.

President Obama has pointedly (June 08, 2015),

" .... accused President Vladimir Putin of wrecking Russia's economy in a doomed drive to re-create the glories of the Soviet empire" (Rferl :  June 08, 2015) (my emphasis)

 As a critical indicator of the dire straits in which Putin's Russian economy finds itself, Vladimir Isachenkov informs us that,

"President Vladimir Putin's expensive arms build-up faces major hurdles as Russia's economy sinks under the weight of Western sanctions and falling oil prices. The 22-trillion ruble (about $400-billion) program, which envisages the acquisition of 2,300 new tanks, hundreds of aircraft and missiles and dozens of navy ships, was conceived back at the time when Russia's coffers were brimming with petrodollars." (Associated Press [AP] : June 12, 2015) (my emphasis)

"In one of the first harbingers of the possible curtailment of new arms procurement, a deputy defense minister said earlier this year that the air force will likely reduce its order for the [Russian] T-50 [stealth fighter] (right), a costly state-of-the art fighter jet developed for two decades to counter the U.S. Raptor." (ibid Isachenkov) (my emphasis)

Added to which,

"Vladimir Putin is trying to bring Russian money back home.

The Russian president has granted an amnesty to people who come clean about the cash they stashed offshore before Jan. 1 -- provided they bring the assets back to Russia, or at least move them out of tax havens.

The new law, signed by Putin this week (June 9, 2015), is part of a package of measures aimed at keeping more of Russia's wealth in the country.


Businesses and wealthy individuals who choose to declare their foreign assets before the end of 2015 will avoid the risk of prosecution and a bill for tax arrears." (Ivana Kottasova (right): CNN Money : June 9, 2015) (my emphasis)

This belated amnesty of Putin comes on the heels of,

" ...... billions of dollars [from Russia] continue to disappear in offshore havens. The net outflow of capital from Russia reached $32.6 billion during the first quarter of 2015, according to the nation’s Central Bank.

The bank is now forecasting that capital flight may reach $131 billion by the end of the year." (Eurasianet : April 30, 2015)

Added to which,

"Russia will use 3 trillion rubles ($54 billion) from the Reserve Fund this year, including 500 billion rubles already taken to finance current spending, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov (left) said May 14. The fund’s holdings fell to $76.3 billion in May from $76.4 billion the previous month, according to the Finance Ministry.


Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev (right) also ordered the government last month to study the possibility of using the $75.9 billion National Wellbeing Fund to cover the pension fund’s deficit in 2016-2018. Russia is already planning to use the stockpile, originally created to cover long-term outlays for social spending, to finance infrastructure." (Olga Tanas : Bloomberg Business : June 5, 2015)

Having painted himself into a 'diplomatic' corner over his war with Ukraine, and with the Russian economy now in more than a mere parlous state due to falling oil prices and the effects of the ongoing sanctions that he has brought upon the head of the Russian people, Putin's 'maskirovka' strategies seem to be crumbling in his hands.


It is at this stage that he is at his most dangerous.

(to be continued)

Has Putin painted himself into a corner?

Putin must be 'spitting nails' now that his attempt to completely undermine the fragile Ukrainian economy has floundered on the rocks of his constant 'lying' about there being no 'Russian soldiers' fighting in eastern Ukraine.(cf: Dmitry Zaks:AFP)

Deutsche Welle (DW) reports that,

"IMF chief Christine Lagarde (right) has reassured Ukraine that funds can still be made available even if the country fails to repay its private creditors. She ruled out resorting to national reserves to avoid defaulting" (DW : 13.06.2015) (my emphasis)

And if this were not enough, US Ambassador Samantha Power (left), has stated that,

"America is clear-eyed when it comes to seeing the truth about Russia's destabilizing" actions in Ukraine, she said, adding that U.S. support for Ukrainians is "unwavering."

If Russia "continues to violate the rules upon which international peace and security" stands," Power said, then the United States will "raise the costs on Russia" and "rally other countries to do the same." ( Don Melvin and Ashley Fantz: CNN: June 11, 2015) (my emphasis)

 Further wrong-footing Putin politically,

"In line with the Minsk blueprint, President Petro Poroshenko (right) announced Kiev would go ahead with local elections in Ukraine on Oct. 25 in a step intended to result in stronger powers being delegated to the regions." 

Adding that,

"Unfortunately, I am not ready to name a date for voting there (i.e. the eastern Ukraine territory held by Putin's Russian soldiers and his proxies). But I am sure that as soon as Moscow and the (separatist) fighters stop torpedoing them we will very quickly find mutual understanding, begin a political dialogue with the legally elected representatives ...", he said in a speech in Mariupol. (Richard Balmforth : Reuters : Thu Jun 11, 2015) (my emphasis)

And now, as reported by Jennifer Steinhauer and David M. Herszenhorn,

"Mr. Putin in recent days has repeatedly blamed the Ukrainian government for continuing cease-fire violations, while calling on the United States and its European allies to pressure Kiev to fully put the peace accord in place.

That has set the stage for a pitched debate between lawmakers and the White House that could well undermine Mr. Obama’s repeated assertion that the United States sees no military solution to the conflict in Ukraine.” (New York Times : June 11, 2015)

Putin's only response to Lagarde, Power, Poroshenko and US lawmakers, is to escalate his Russian soldiers and proxies breaking of the Minsk2 'ceasefire'. 

Therefore is it any wonder that yesterday (Saturday 13 June 2015), 

"The Ukrainian military says six of its soldiers have been killed and 14 wounded in the past 24 hours in the separatist east of the country despite the current ceasefire.

The situation is particularly tense around the airport near the city of Donetsk, which is controlled by the rebels, the military spokesman Andriy Lysenko (left) said.

“The enemy threw tanks, armoured personnel carriers and heavy artillery into battle. We emphasise that rebels are also firing at residential areas,” he said.

The casualties were the result of landmine explosions and shelling by the pro-Russia separatists, he added." (The Guardian : Saturday 13 June 2015) (my emphasis) (cf. also: Reuters)

At the same time, Christian Borys reports that,

"Russia’s repeated attempts to convince the international community and its own citizens that there are no Russian troops, or weapons in Ukraine have grown tiresome and farcical, especially when compared against the meticulously researched mountain of evidence to the contrary.

Shortly after Ukrainian troops captured two Russian Spetsnaz soldiers, a Ukrainian special forces unit of the Dnipro-1 Battalion shot down a $6 million Russian Forpost drone near Avdeevka in Eastern Ukraine. The Russian government was quick to distance itself from the soldiers, and even went so far as to parade their families in front of the media to deny their active status. However, the drone that was shot down that day is not something the Russian government can deny owning and operating." (Bellingcat : June 13, 2015) (my emphasis)

As Paul Niland  (left) comments,

"Russia is impotent. It cannot move any further than the territory it currently controls, as was demonstrated last week when Russian forces advanced alongside the few locals they have fighting for them on the town of Mariinka. The assault was instantly condemned and there were immediate comments from the right people about “increasing costs” to Russia." (KyivPost : June 13, 2015) (my emphasis)

Added to which, Adrian Croft reports that,

"[Vice-Admiral James Foggo (right), deputy commander of U.S. naval forces Europe] is leading a 49-ship international fleet in an exercise in the Baltic Sea involving 17 NATO allies or partner nations with 61 aircraft and 5,600 personnel."

Furthermore, Admiral Foggo stated that,

"We are here with 49 ships right now and we are operating in areas all over the Baltic Sea," he said.

"I frequently operate in the Black Sea with destroyers from the Sixth Fleet, so no, they are not no-go areas, and we will continue to operate in both places." (Reuters : Fri Jun 12, 2015) (my emphasis)
 
 Putin's 'muscle flexing' against NATO does not quite seem to be having the effect that he expected.


(to be continued)