President Trump and Putin banking on political upsets in the upcoming EU elections in Germany, France, and Holland.

At the World Economic Forum, 17-20 January 2017 at  Davos-Klosters in Switzerland, Poroshenko was optimistic about the then president-elect Trump's attitude towards Ukraine.

Now that President Trump is in the driving seat at the White House, and bearing in mind that key 'advisors' he appointed to his cabinet are very sympathetic towards Putin, especially Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Chief Strategist Steve Bannon, and behind-the-scenes Paul Manafort, is Poroshenko's optimism that President Trump will maintain US sanctions against Putin realistic? (left: Manafort, Tillerson, Bannon)

As Guy Faulconbridge and William James have reported,

"U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will propose offering to end sanctions imposed on Russia over its annexation of Crimea in return for a nuclear arms reduction deal with Moscow, he told The Times of London." (Reuters : Mon Jan 16, 2017) (my emphasis)

It is interesting to note that Putin's main claim to Russia as a 'superpower' lies precisely in the fact that Russia is a formidable nuclear power. 

Furthermore, in June 2015,
 
"President Vladimir Putin has said Russia will put more than 40 new intercontinental ballistic missiles into service this year.
...
Speaking at an arms fair, Mr Putin said the weapons would be able to overcome even the most technically advanced anti-missile defence systems." (BBC News :  16 June 2015) (my emphasis) (cf. also: Simon Shuster, April 2016)

 Yet, as Nick Allen and Roland Oliphant reported in December of last year,

"In comments that alarmed non-proliferation experts and undermined decades of US nuclear policy Mr Trump said: "Let it be an arms race".

The United States must greatly strengthen and expand its nuclear capability until such time as the world comes to its senses regarding nukes

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 22, 2016

We will outmatch them at every pass and outlast them all." (Daily Telegraph : 23 December, 2016) (my emphasis)

What President Trump tweeted about nuclear arms in December 2016, and what he proposed in January 2017, does not quite seem to match up.

If anything, his alarming December tweet seems to flatly contradict his January proposal.

What this seems to indicate is that President Trump is putting foreward this proposal of a 'Nuclear Arms Deal' between himself and Putin as a justification for his determination to lift the US sanctions against Russia for its illegal annexation of Ukrainian Crimea and for Russia's invasion of eastern Ukraine (Donbas).

In so doing, Trump's proposal will further increase the clarion call of the populist political movements in the EU that the EU sanctions against Putin and his 'siloviki' clique be similarly lifted.

In his interview in Davos (see video above) Poroshenko hinted at the emerging opposing views between the EU and President Trump.

"This is very simple question because all the time I'm telling that we Ukraine ... and me as Ukrainian President ...need from European Union ... not only Germany ... just two things ... First is a unity ...this is the vital not only for Ukraine but for the European Union itself ...  but also for the world .."

Hovering dangerously in the background is President Trump's attitude towards NATO.

As reported by James Masters and Katie Hunt,

"Donald Trump's accusation that NATO is "obsolete" has led to "astonishment and agitation" within the alliance, Germany's foreign minister has said.
....

Trump used the interview to restate his doubts about NATO. "I said a long time ago that NATO had problems," he said in the interview.

...

"Number one it was obsolete, because it was designed many, many years ago." (CNN : January 17, 2017) (me emphasis)

Theresa May (left), British PM, who will be visiting President Trump within the next few days,
 
" ... said she was sure that the new president “recognises the importance and significance of Nato”. She added: “I’m also confident the USA will recognise the importance of the co-operation we have in Europe to ensure our collective defence and collective security.” (Financial Times : 20 January, 2017)

Underscoring British recognition of the importance and significance of Nato,

"Defence Secretary Sir Michael Fallon (right) has said that the United Kingdom stands firmly alongside Ukraine as the British Army prepares to broaden its already extended training package to all of the country’s armed forces.
...
Speaking in Ukraine’s capital Kyiv, on his second trip to the country in 18 months, Sir Michael said that the UK is beginning to deliver training to Ukraine’s Air Force as well as its Army and Navy." (UK Gov. : 20 January 2017)

Whether Theresa May will be able to pursuade President Trump about the importance of NATO remains to be seen.

Meanwhile, during a conference call,

"The leaders of Germany, France and Russia agreed on [Wed Jan 18, 2017] to continue working toward a peaceful resolution of the conflict in eastern Ukraine under four-way peace talks that include Kiev, a spokesman for German Chancellor Angela Merkel said." (Reuters : Wed Jan 18, 2017)

Given that France, Germany, and the Netherlands will soon be having elections for the Presidency of France, the Chancellorship of Germany, and a general election in the Netherlands, respectively, will the Minsk2 peace talks between Merkel, Hollande, Putin, and Poroshenko really achieve any viable results?

Everything is in Putin's favour.

Now that he has President Trump covering his back, it is worth his while to drag out these talks about the implementation of Minsk2 until such time as these EU elections are over.

Merkels chances of being re-elected in Germany are fairly high. But let us not forget that so were the chances of Hilary Clinton.

Franscoise Hollande will soon be enjoying his retirement and, who knows, the financial support that Putin is giving to his close friend, Marine Le Pen, may also upset the political apple-cart in France.

And then there is Geert Wilders, the current right-wing populist darling of the Dutch electorate, who will be standing on a platform of a Dutch 'Brexit' from the EU. (right: Marine Le Pen and Geert Wilders)

It is therefore in the interest of Putin to continue to drag out talks about Minsk2.

And if Marine Le Pen and Geert Wilders succeed in their respective elections this will give President Trump added ammunition to scrap the US sanctions against Putin and his 'siloviki'

Is President Trump now also waiting for the outcome of these EU elections before he makes a final pronouncement about the US position on Ukraine? 

(to be continued)