Zelensky now stands at the political crossroads.

UNICEF, the UN Children's Agency, have reported (20 May 2020) that,

"At a time when children and families in eastern Ukraine are living under COVID-19 related movement restrictions, an increase in shelling has resulted in numerous child casualties and damaged schools in the region, making life even more unbearable for the approximately 430,000 children caught up in the six-year long conflict, UNICEF said today.

Six children were injured at home after their villages came under shelling during the first week of May alone. One incident severely injured three young girls, two of them sisters, aged 7 and 10 years old and the other a friend, also aged 7." (UNICEF : 20 May 2020) (my emphasis)

This report of UNICEF is backed up by a summary report of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine that included,

• "Compared with the previous reporting period, the Mission recorded more ceasefire violations in both Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

•  It saw mines, including some for the first time, near Maiorsk and Petrivske and in Zaitseve, Holmivskyi, and Staromykhailivka.   

• The SMM’s freedom of movement continued to be restricted.*" (OSCE Report : 23 May 2020) (my emphasis)

Further confirming the uptick of attacks by Putin's Russian soldiers and proxies in the Donbas, a video released by the Ukrainian military shows what it claims is a team of Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) snipers operating in eastern Ukraine. (RFERL : 20 May 2020)

And against this backdrop of Putin's escalation of his war with Ukraine in  the Donbas, Oliver Carroll reports that,

"On Wednesday, in his annual news conference (20 May 2020)

• Gone was the easy style of the previous year’s meeting –... During the 3 hour affair, the president’s demeanour was harder, more defensive, and plenty more irritable.
• Mr Zelensky was angry with the journalists. He snapped when they asked about a colleague who was denied accreditation to the event: “He penetrated the presidential motorcade and you have to question his upbringing,” the president said. 
• An even stranger exchange followed when he was asked why so many of his inexperienced friends were being rewarded with high office. “These are people I trust,” Mr Zelensky replied, before turning to the journalist in question: “And what about you? I’m making you an offer to work with me. Choose your position and answer for your actions.” (The Independent : 21 May 2020) (my emphasis)

At this press conference Zelensky also unveiled,

" ... the existence of Plan B and Plan C on Donbas, but the Minsk agreements remain a priority. "I'm giving myself a few more months to resolve this, so that we find this diplomatic way out of the situation under the Minsk agreements," he said at a press conference on the first year of his presidency ...
...
As for 'Minsk' and this track, we will fight for it to the end, because sanctions against the Russian Federation are connected with the Minsk agreements. And you know everyone wants to lift them – not only Russia, but also many European countries. I know their economies are also suffering over these sanctions. But, as I said, we will fight for them for a year," he said." (UNIAN : 20 May 2020) (my emphasis)

But what does, "... we will fight for them (sanctions against Putin's Russia) for a year ..." really mean??

Adding even more confusion, does "the existence of Plan B and Plan C" include the wholesale scrapping of the Minsk2 agreements??

Maybe .... just maybe ...the fact that Oleksiy Reznikov (right), Ukraine's current Vice Prime Minister, has stated that,

"The Ukrainian side is  

• looking for a way to negotiate with the participation of real representatives of Donbas, from among internally displaced persons, to have this type of consultations supported by the OSCE and the Normandy Four." (UNIAN : 18 May 2020), and

• that those Putin-controlled 'militants' now sport Russian passports that Putin has ILLEGALLY given to them, thus suddenly conferring upon them the status of 'Russian representatives',  

gives us a clue as to what may be contained in Plan B or Plan C.

Zelensky may have postponed the Ukraine-Russia peace summit until after the corona virus pandemic has subsided.  (The Brussels Times : 20 May 2020) (my emphasis)

Putin, however, has not 'postponed' his ramping up of his war with Ukraine.

Zelensky now stands at the political crossroads.

As Duncan Allan's (left) summary of  his "The Minsk Conundrum" so explicitly points out,

• The Minsk agreements of September 2014 and February 2015, which sought to end Russia’s war in eastern Ukraine, rest on two irreconcilable interpretations of Ukraine’s sovereignty – what could be called the ‘Minsk conundrum’: is Ukraine sovereign, as Ukrainians insist, or should its sovereignty be limited, as Russia demands?

• Russia sees the Minsk agreements as tools with which to break Ukraine’s sovereignty. Its interpretation reverses key elements in the sequence of actions: elections in occupied Donbas would take place before Ukraine had reclaimed control of the border; this would be followed by comprehensive autonomy for Russia’s proxy regimes, crippling the central authorities in Kyiv. Ukraine would be unable to govern itself effectively or orient itself towards the West. (Chatham House : 22 May 2020) (my emphasis)

Which political road will Zelensky choose?

(to be continued)

Will not Oleksiy Reznikov's 'legal-sleigh-of-hand' tighten Putin's grip over the Donbas?

In an article entitled, "Failure of oil price war may cost Putin dear", David Gardner (left) writes that,

"Igor Sechin, chief of Rosneft, the state oil company, and long one of Russia’s most powerful men, wrote to Mr Putin last year, before Moscow changed tack on Opec+, complaining that its output restraints had “created a preferential advantage for the US . . . which has become a strategic threat to Russia’s oil industry development”.

If Mr Putin did indeed buy the Sechin thesis, that was surely a mistake. ... But Opec+ is not delivering." Financial Times : 30 April 2020) (my emphasis)

The Intelligence Unit of  'The Economist' now forecast that,

"Tensions with the West are high and we expect EU and US sanctions to remain in place in 2020-24. 
...
Russia has become more resilient to external shocks since 2014, but the dual shock of collapsed global oil prices and deteriorating domestic demand amid the coronavirus outbreak will result in an economic contraction of 5.2% in 2020." (The Economist Intelligence Unit : 19 May 2020) (my emphasis)


More disconcerting for Putin, The Moscow Times have just reported that,

"Russian GDP Falls 28% in April

The Russian economy contracted by more than a quarter in April, calculations based on official government statistics have shown. Using the first batch of official data on the damage from the coronavirus and Russia’s nationwide shutdown of the economy, Russia’s GDP in April was 28% smaller in nominal terms than in the same period last year, economists said. " (The Moscow Times : 20 May 2020) (my emphasis)

It is therefore no wonder that Putin is now trying to use the corona-virus pandemic to have EU and US sanctions against him and his 'siloviki' lifted.

Having previously failed in his argument that, "sanctions hinder the fight against the corona, trying to win hearts of certain EU member states" (UNIAN:19 May 2020), Putin is now desperately, "planning to act through the platform of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), "the structure Moscow pretty much fully controls." (ibid UNIAN)

As reported by UNIAN,

"The statement [of the CIS prime ministers’ meeting on May 29] will urge all countries to abandon trade wars, unilateral sanctions introduced bypassing the UNSC, and other measures of economic pressure or coercion on the part of certain state actors against others. Signatories will reaffirm their intention to seek free, fair, non-discriminatory, transparent, predictable and stable conditions for trade and investment," the leaked draft shows." (UNIAN: 19 May 2020) (my emphasis)

Putin's panic as his Russian economy falls around his knees is, according to Sarah Rainsford, causing him to,

" ... run out of patience with coronavirus.

On Monday he sent millions of workers back to factories and building sites across Russia, declaring six weeks of full lockdown over.

 BBC: 15 May

Regional leaders have been left to manage exactly how and when they lift the remaining restrictions, with the infection rate still stubbornly high - especially in Moscow." (BBC News : 15 May 2020) (my emphasis)

BBC: 15 May

And against this backdrop of a failing Health System and a collapsing economy in Russia, Putin continues to lash out against Ukraine.

As reported by UNIAN,

"Russia's hybrid military forces on May 18 mounted 11 attacks on Ukrainian positions in Donbas, eastern Ukraine. "The Russian Federation's armed formations violated the ceasefire 11 times in the past day," the press center of Ukraine's Joint Forces Operation said in a Facebook update as of 07:00 Kyiv time on May 19, 2020." (UNIAN : 18 May 2020) (my emphasis)

And yet ... and yet ...

"LPR", "DPR" envoys in Minsk talks have status of persons "invited" by Russia, Ukrainian official stresses" .. so screams the UNIAN headline.

"The Ukrainian side is looking for a way to negotiate with the participation of real representatives of Donbas, from among internally displaced persons, to have this type of consultations supported by the OSCE and the Normandy Four." (UNIAN : 18 May 2020) (my emphasis)

The fact that Ukraine has always insisted that, ".. any direct negotiations with Russian-controlled militants are off the table", and that these Putin-controlled 'militants' now sport Russian passports that Putin has ILLEGALLY given to thousands of Donbas Ukrainians, do these illegal passports of Putin's 'militants' now suddenly confer upon them the status of 'Russian representatives'???

So, it would seem, according to

 (i)  Ukraine's Vice Prime Minister,
(ii)  Minister for Reintegration of Temporarily Occupied Territories,
(iii) First Deputy Representative of Ukraine to the Trilateral Contact Group for the Donbas settlement,  

Oleksiy Reznikov (left).

This 'legal sleigh-of-hand' in bringing Putin's Donbas militant proxies to the consulting process,  ostensibly to 'satisfy' all the conditions of the Minsk2 protocols, smacks of nothing more nor less than to hold aloft a Donbas Peace Plan, similar to the one held aloft by Neville Chamberlain in 1939, and signed by Adolf Hitler.

Yet it was precisely the actions of the Putin-controlled representatives of certain areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, the predecessors of the current "holders of Russian passports" representatives that Oleksiy Reznikov now views as "legal Russian representatives", that allowed Putin to spark of his war with Ukraine in the Donbas in the first place.

History, it would seem, is repeating itself.

Putin will simply NOT allow his grip over areas of the Donbas and Ukraine's Crimea to be released.

The critical question is,

"Will not Oleksiy Reznikov's 'legal-sleigh-of-hand' tighten Putin's grip over the Donbas?"

(to be continued)

Will Putin now invade Ukraine at Mariupol?

UNIAN reports that,

"Russia's hybrid military forces on May 9 mounted 17 attacks on Ukrainian positions in Donbas, eastern Ukraine. "The Russian Federation's armed groups violated the ceasefire 17 times in the past day," the press center of Ukraine's Joint Forces Operation said in a Facebook update as of 07:00 Kyiv time on May 10, 2020." (UNIAN : 10 May 2020) (my emphasis)

These attacks by Putin's hybrid military forces in the Donbas follow those on the 8 May, in which four Ukrainian soldiers were wounded. (UNIAN : 9 May 2020) (my emphasis)

This continuous violation of the ceasefire by Putin's Russian soldiers and proxies in the Donbas comes against the backdrop of a record rise of corona-virus infections in Putin's Russia.

As reported by BBC News,

"In the last 24 hours [Russia] reported a record daily rise of 11,656 cases, bringing the official total to 221,344." (BBC News : 11 May 2020) (my emphasis)

Notwithstanding that only Spain and the US now have more reported infections Putin, nonetheless, has declared that,

"... from Tuesday (12 May) the nationwide coronavirus lockdown will be eased and businesses will go back to work. " (ibid BBC News) (my emphasis)

BBC News 11 May

As I wrote in my blog entry of 21 April 2020,

"... As the economic and social fallout from the corona-virus unravels Putin's Russian and international political agenda, Putin will lash out against Ukraine."

as the UNIAN reports above (9 and 10 May) confirms.

As also reported by Jessica Resnick-Ault (left),

"Oil dropped 4% to below $30 a barrel on Wednesday as U.S. crude stockpiles ticked up and diesel inventories swelled, offsetting OPEC-led cuts in production and hopes for a recovery in demand as some countries ease coronavirus lockdowns." (Reuters : 6 May 2020) (my emphasis)

And as Putin eases his lock-down of the Russian economy, a strategic adviser to the United States, political analyst Molly McKew (right), argues that,

"The Russian policy of granting citizenship to the population of a neighboring state poses a threat to international security; therefore, the EU and NATO need to develop a comprehensive strategy to counter such hybrid Russian interventions.
..
... in the light of recent changes proposed by the President of the Russian Federation to the law on granting citizenship and develop a comprehensive strategy to counter such Russian policy." (Guildhall : 7 May 2020) (my emphasis) (translated using Google Translate)

As the Chief of Ukraine's Permanent Mission to the United Nations, Ambassador Serhiy Kyslytsya (left) reported to the UN Security Council in February of this year,

"Russia has issued over 200,000 passports to Ukrainians living in the occupied parts of Donbas.
...
Russia also pursues illegal passportization in the temporarily occupied territories of Donbas, which has now reached an industrial level – more than 200,000 persons were issued Russian passports there," the envoy told a UN Security Council (UNSC) meeting in New York City on February 18." (UNIAN : 7 May 2020) (my emphasis)

This illegal passportization of Putin now carries a greater danger for Ukraine in light of the rising corona-virus infections in Russia.

The corona-virus epidemic in Putin's Russia is throwing into a tailspin Putin's plans to increase the declining population of Russia. (cf: Lilya Palveleva and Robert Coalson : RFERL : 12 Jan 2020 and Michael Kofman : Texas National Security Review : 4 Feb 2020)

Putin now sees the incorporation of  yet more of Ukraine into his "Novorossiya" pipe-dream as a matter of even greater urgency; as a means to increase the population of Russia.

Of this Zelensky should be aware.
 

Let us recall that in my blog entry (27/12/2017) I stated that,

"Putin's military build-up of tanks in the Donbas is a prelude to attack Mariupol, specifically to gain that land-bridge with Ukrainian Crimea that he so desperately needs to further consolidate his hold over Ukrainian Crimea."

Could the sweeping corona-virus epidemic in Russia be the Black Swan event that tips Putin into invading Ukraine at Mariupol?

(to be continued)

Zelensky has time on his side. Putin does not.

Even as the Covid-19 virus is causing the Russian economy to fall around Putin's knees, and his international political strategy lies in tatters before him, nonetheless,

"Russia is planning to open the huge [Resurrection of Christ Cathedral, a military monument to the Soviet victory in the second world war], with mosaics depicting Vladimir Putin and Joseph Stalin, as well as the annexation of Crimea, on the 75th anniversary of the defeat of Nazi Germany next month." (Andrew Roth : The Guardian : 27 April 2020) (my emphasis)

For the time being, however, due to these mosaic panels becoming public, and their 'controversial nature', they were removed, leaving empty spaces where they should have been placed. (BBC: 1 May 2020)

As these mosaic panels were being removed, Lavrov (Putin's dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign Minister), French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas, and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, held a 'video' Normandy Four conference on 30 April.

 Lavrov, Le Drian, Maas, & Kuleba

As reported by Henry Meyer and Daryna Krasnolutska,

"Fragile hopes of ending the six-year conflict in Ukraine that might pave the way to an easing of European sanctions on Russia have evaporated as Moscow and Kyiv find themselves in renewed deadlock." (Bloomberg : 30 April 2020) (my emphasis)
 
The four-way talks focused on the implementation of a 2015 Minsk II peace agreement for eastern Ukraine that was signed in Minsk and brokered by France and Germany.

Vladimir Isachenkov (right) further reports that :-

•  Lavrov [ ] noted that the Ukrainian authorities have continued to shun direct dialogue with the rebels, stymieing peace efforts. He emphasized that such negotiations are essential for implementing earlier agreements that envisaged a broad autonomy for the rebel regions.
•  Kuleba rejected Lavrov's arguments, insisting that Ukraine will not talk to the “illegal formations.”
• Maas said that many of the elements agreed in Minsk and Paris have yet to be implemented. “These compromises, which are the result of long and hard negotiations, mustn’t be destroyed"
• And rather lamely, French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said in a statement that participants agreed to call for a cease-fire. (ABC News : 30 April 2020) (my emphasis)

EU sanctions against Putin for his illegal annexation of Ukraine's Crimea, and his ongoing war with Ukraine, have not been removed.

As the EU spokesperson for the European Commission Peter Stano (left) stated on 6th April,

"The European Union leadership says there is no issue in keeping sanctions against Russia in place amid the coronavirus pandemic because they do not hamper Russia’s capabilities to address the outbreak..sanctions "do not prevent Russia from tackling coronavirus outbreak." (Tass :6 April 2020) (my emphasis)

Underlining the fact that sanctions do not prevent Russia from tackling the coronavirus outbreak is the fact that,

"Moscow has expanded its military actions on the Black Sea, not to compete with other international players who are too strong for that but rather to try to end trade in Ukrainian ports, something that weakens Kyiv and gives Moscow additional leverage in Ukraine.

...

Russia’s “final goal” remains unchanged: the installation in Kyiv of a pro-Russian government under Moscow’s control, Danilyuk says. To that end, it is prepared to compromise the rights of Ukrainians on the occupied territories in terms of land ownership and put them at greater risk of infection from the pandemic." (Oleksandr Danilyuk (right): Window on Eurasia : 22 April 2020) (my emphasis)

Further underscoring that sanctions do not prevent Putin from putting more resources into tackling the corona virus outbreak in Russia,

"Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin (left) has signed an order increasing the salaries of those in the Russian Guard and other organs of internal affairs serving in Moscow and St. Petersburg and in Moscow and Leningrad Oblasts by as much as 100 percent when they are deployed to maintain “public order”" (Window on Eurasia : (https://ehorussia.com/new/node/20677 (use Google Translate): 25 April 2020) (my emphasis)

This action of Mishutin indicates that Putin is wary that the growing economic hardship of the Russian people, coupled with a collapsing oil-price and an avalanche of small businesses going bankrupt, spells danger to his vice-like grip on Russian society.

Putin may have cleared the streets of protestors ...  but he cannot eradicate the number of growing online protest actions.

 Youtube : 28 April 2020

  

Zelensky has time on his side. Putin does not.

(to be continued)