Putin and Obama. The Ukrainian war begins to unravel.

Yesterday the Ukrainian Rada (parliament) took the first steps towards giving the rebels in eastern Ukraine temporary self-rule. As Dmitry Zaks (left) informs us,

"Ukraine's parliament took the first step Thursday toward granting temporary self-rule to pro-Russian rebels under a change to the constitution the West hopes can end one of Europe's deadliest wars in recent years." (AFP : 17 July, 2015) (my emphasis)

It should not go un-noticed that the Minsk2 proposals, with Putin's fingerprints all over them, amongst other conditions stipulates that BEFORE temporary self-rule should be implemented that :

• there should be an IMMEDIATE AND FULL ceasefire
• withdrawal of heavy weaponry
• On the first day after the pullout a dialogue is to start on modalities of conducting local elections in accordance with the Ukrainian legislation and the Law of Ukraine "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts," and also about the future of these districts based on the above-mentioned law. 
• Pullout of all foreign armed formations, military equipment, and also mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine under OSCE supervision. Disarmament of all illegal groups.

Yet three days ago (15 July, 2015) AP reports that,

"Eight Ukrainian troops were killed and 16 wounded in war-torn eastern Ukraine in a 24-hour period from Tuesday morning until Wednesday morning, officials in Kiev said.

The death toll released by the National Security and Defense Council is the highest in weeks, pointing to intensifying fighting in the area." (Mail Online : 15 July 2015) (my emphasis) (cf also Reuters : July 15, 2015)

Why, therefore, has Victoria Nuland applauded the first steps in the granting of "temporary self-rule" to the Putin and rebel-held territories in eastern Ukraine?

Are we all to naively assume, as Washington and its allies believe that,

"....partial self-rule could satisfy the insurgents and remove any arguments Russia may have for arming and funding their campaign -- support Moscow firmly denies ever giving."? (ibid Dmitry Zaks) (my emphasis)

Throughout his war with Ukraine, Putin has simple ignored BOTH the Minsk1 and the Minsk2 protocols. 

Putin has constantly lied through his teeth about there not being any Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine, even in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

Instead of granting temporary self-rule in eastern Ukraine as a  prelude   to 'diplomatically wrong-footing' (which is purely imaginary) Putin, we should be focusing on the fact that Putin has recently

• accelerated the volume of military equipment and Russian soldiers flooding into the rebel-held areas in eastern Ukraine,
• and only "last month defence minister Stepan Poltorak estimated that there were 55,000" Russian troops on Ukraine's border. (Damien Sharkov : Newsweek : 13 July, 2015)

Damien Sharkov further reports that,

"Poroshenko recently visited some of the easternmost positions held by pro-Kiev forces in Donetsk region, including the port city Mariupol (right), the outskirts of which have sustained some of the most persistent attacks from pro-Russian separatists since February.

"We have information about possible key targets of attacks and we regularly perform staff exercises," Poroshenko said." (my emphasis)

Why, then, should we believe that giving the rebel-held territories in eastern Ukraine "temporary self-rule" will force Putin to withdraw his troops and military equipment from Ukraine, whilst at the same time removing his army encamped on the border with Ukraine?

Ukraine is being none other than 'blackmailed' by Washington and its EU allies to give in to Putin because Putin has helped President Obama from having 'egg all over his face' on the Iran issue.

Perhaps, even more significantly,

"Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk is grappling with an effort to restructure his country's upcoming debt payments and keeping one eye on the other country caught in a similar—but far more clamorous—process elsewhere on the fringes of Europe: Greece." (Eamon Javers : CNBC : Wednesday, 15 Jul 2015) (my emphasis)

There is, furthermore, another factor that has to be taken into account.

Today the German Bundestag, like all parliaments in the Eurozone, vote on the Greek bailout.

 Peter Spence and Julia Bradshaw report that right now, in the German Bundestag,

"Sahra Wagenknecht (left), of Germany's socialist Die Linke party, has said that Germany's politicians will be right back to negotiating Greece again in another year.

Mr Schaeuble has admitted that he doesn't have confidence in another bail-out, she said, and the package will be just a drop in the ocean.

Speaking in the Bundestag, Ms Wagenknecht noted the IMF's projection that Greek debt to GDP will soon hit 200pc. She has called the German Government's handling of taxpayer money "shocking". (The Telegraph : 17 Jul 2015)

As I write, the German Bundestag has not yet come to a definitive decision.

But what Sahra Wagenknecht has so far said should give Angela Merkel serious cause for concern.

Merkels Chancellorship of Germany is under serious threat. And if she falls then President Obama will be left without his staunchest supporter in the EU, especially concerning the arming of Ukraine with lethal defensive weaponry.

In the next few days the ball concerning aiding Ukraine both financially AND militarily will be firmly in the court of President Obama.

Ukraine will be to President Obama what Greece is now to Angela Merkel. 

President Obama's presidential legacy is here at stake. 

Will he go down as the US President who sold out Ukraine to Putin?

(to be continued)

Putin and Hollande ... The new duo rising above the Ukrainian horizon?

Finally the mask behind which Merkel and Hollande were hiding their true 'sympathies' with Putin has finally slipped down.

AFP (Agence France Press) now informs us that,

"German chancellor Angela Merkel and French president Francois Hollande took the rare step on Friday of pressing Ukraine's Western-backed leader to ensure partial self-rule for the pro-Russian separatist east." (The Telegraph : 10 Jul 2015) (my emphasis)

On my 24th June blog entry I wrote that,

"The question that now needs to be asked is whether Merkel, Putin, and Hollande, who had a private Skype meeting about Ukraine without Poroshenko, (AP : June 22, 2015)

also discussed over the phone on Monday whether Ukraine should be,

"[carrying] out the “last” points of the Minsk agreement and not wait for Russia and the Russian-controlled militants to carry out their portion of the agreement." (EuroMaidan Press :24/06/2015)

After all,

"French President Francois Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel lamented the "insufficient" progress in resolving the Ukraine crisis after a telephone conversation Monday with Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to a source close to the French president." (AFP : June 22, 2015) (my emphasis)

Putin seems to have answered this question when he,

"...emphasized the need for Ukraine to conduct political settlement and provide social and economic assistance to the eastern region, according to the Kremlin." (ibid AP) (my emphasis)

Needless to say, following on from Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande announcing that Poroshenko should "ensure partial self-rule for the pro-Russian separatist east Ukraine", Reuters informs us that a 'cheering',

"Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Friday that there were more chances for Ukraine crisis to be successfully resolved rather than for it to fail.

He also said efforts to resolve the crisis have been hindered by Kiev's reluctance to directly negotiate with the rebels in east Ukraine." (Reuters : Friday Jul 10, 2015)

The fact that the Minsk2 protocols were practically written by Putin himself, and that Putinversteher Angela Merkel, and Francois Hollande, are finally caving in to Putin's demands, also signals that Francois Hollande is now taking over from Merkel as the key EU negotiator with Putin over his war with Ukraine.

As Gordon Rayner (right) reports,

"Merkel has lost. Germany has lost.” Not the reaction from a rabidly left-wing Greek tabloid to the country’s referendum vote, but from Benoit Hamon (left), the former French education minister and ally of Francois Hollande.

For Mr Hamon, the resounding “no” vote was “an opportunity for Francois Hollande to resume leadership” in Europe. Old divisions run deep across the continent, and the Greek crisis brought them right back to the surface as Europe’s financial superpowers squabbled like children at playtime. (The Telegraph : 06 Jul 2015)

And as Angela Merkel is now being eclipsed by Francoise Hollande as the 'EU leader' in Europe,

"The nominee to be the next chairman of the [US] Joint Chiefs of Staff said Thursday that Russia poses the greatest national security threat to the United States and that it would be "reasonable" to supply lethal arms to Ukrainians fighting against rebels backed by Moscow.

"Russia presents the greatest threat to our national security. ... If you look at their behavior, it's nothing short of alarming," Marine Gen. Joseph Dunford (above) said during his confirmation hearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee." (Fox News (AP) : July 09, 2015)

If, as suggested by Benoit Hamon, Francoise Hollande now takes over the 'leadership' role in Europe, and given the underlying antipathy of the French towards the US since the time of De Gaulle (not to mention the historical 'love affair' between the French intellectuals and Russia), we can then expect a swift call by Hollande that:

• EU sanctions against Russia be re-negotiated (especially in light of the current Mistral affair between Putin and Hollande)
• greater pressure to be brought upon Poroshenko to give in to Putin's demands
• US support for Poroshenko, especially military support, to be 'diplomatically' undermined
• decisions about EU economic support for Ukraine to be dragged out ....

to name but a few 'Hollande inspired' political developments if he takes over the leadership role in Europe.

More intrestingly, the time has now come to ponder just how long Angela Merkel can maintain her position as Chancellor of Germany.

As Kate Connolly (right) writes,

"Germany’s ruling coalition appears to be deeply split over Greece’s latest reform proposals ahead of a climactic meeting of EU leaders at the weekend......
.......
“This is the toughest time in her chancellorship so far. Can she resist the voices of opposition within her own party to push through a third bailout in the Bundestag that most of them are against?” said Artur Fischer.

“She is facing huge internal difficulties that have the potential to end her chancellorship." (The Guardian : Friday 10 July 2015) (my emphasis)

And as Hollande's star seems to be rising over Europe, whilst Merkel's is beginning to wane (even in her own country), the OSCE informs us that,

"The situation at and around the Donetsk airport was volatile. Between 08:00 and 18:00hrs, at the Joint Centre for Control and Co-ordination (JCCC) observation point at Donetsk central railway station (“Donetsk People’s Republic” (“DPR”)-controlled, 8km north-west of Donetsk city centre), the SMM heard nearly 500 explosions, consistent with incoming and outgoing mortar fire, as well as bursts consistent with small-arms, automatic grenade launcher, heavy machine-gun (HMG) and anti-aircraft gun fire." (OSCE : 8 July 2015) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, Natalia Zinets informs us that,

"The level of guerrilla and terrorist threats in the regions outside the zone (of conflict) has significantly risen," Poroshenko (left) said.

He said weapons were being trafficked from the conflict zone. With police resources focused on the east, "there will be an increase in grievous and especially life-threatening crimes" in other parts of Ukraine, he said." (Reuters : Fri Jul 10, 2015) (my emphasis)

Confirming Poroshenko's anxieties,

"An armed assault has left three postal service employees dead in the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, local police reported Friday, July 10, acccording to Ukrainian news agency TSN." (Ukraine Today : Jul. 10, 2015)

The Greek economic crisis has deepened the fissure between those EU members in support of Poroshenko, and those who support Putin.

Angela Merkel has tried to straddle that fissure, but to no avail. In the end, the legacy of the German 'Ostpolitic' of Willy Brandt has begun to overwhelm her.

How Hollande will cope with the pro-Ukraine and ptro-Putin camps in the EU remains to be seen. Thus far he has leaned strongly towards the pro-Putin camp.

Like his predecessor, Nikolas Sarkozy, will Hollande, too, enjoy a 'liquid' lunch of vodka with Putin, as once did Sarkozy, that rather exemplifies that historical 'French-Russian love affair'?

(to be continued)

Is Putin's Merkel succumbing to a resurgence of German 'Ostpolitik'?

As the Greek economic crisis spirals out of the control of the Greek government, a government comprised of a majority party Syriza which, in fact, is composed of more than 17+  left-wing, ultra left-wing, and ultra right-wing political groupings, Judy Dempsey (left) writes that,

"The Europeans are barely coping with the security situation presented by Russia’s continuing interference in eastern Ukraine. And the longer the crisis continues in Ukraine, the more likely it is that Germany could wobble" (Carnegie Europe : Thursday, July 9, 2015) (my emphasis)

More significantly, she informs us that,

"There is a longing among some of Germany’s elites to go back to the old days of Ostpolitik, when Germany drove a rapprochement with Russia while Moscow used that relationship to weaken Europe and undermine the transatlantic alliance.

Implicit in that Eastern policy was a suspicion—if not criticism—of the United States, despite Washington being Europe’s security guarantor. " (ibid Judy Dempsey) (my emphasis)

Putinversteher Frank-Walter Steinmeier (right), Merkel's Foreign Minister, 

"...said that the Cold War was over but that “old reflexes [i.e. German Ostpolitik] from that era are still in place, and they appear to be gaining vitality these days.” (ibid Judy Dempsey) (my emphasis)

And if this were not enough, EuroMaidan informs us that,

"According to the Russian business newspaper Vedomosti, German multinational technology giant Siemens entered into a contract to supply modern gas turbine-powered electricity generating plants for Sevastopol and Simferopol in Crimea, the Russia-occupied Ukrainian peninsula, in violation of Western sanctions." (EuroMaidan : 01/07/2015) (my emphasis)

Whilst Siemens has published a statement denying that they have violated western sanctions against Russia, a Google translation of part of the Vedomosti article reads as follows:

"... If you evaluate the deal formally, it is clean. After all, the right to property in Russia and the plant is firm, selling equipment, can not impose any charges on the customer, including a ban on the resale and delivery to other regions, Zaichenko said. In addition, Siemens has iron argument: the company may declare that fully trust the information specified in the contract, he added...." (Vedomosti : 30.06.2015) (my emphasis)

The Siemens statement reads, in part, that,

"... Please understand that we do not disclose details of individual contracts but, to help clarify this particular matter, we can state that we have no reason to believe that the gas turbines mentioned in the news articles are destined for Crimea." (Siemens : 01/07/2015)

Zaichenko, unfortunately, rather contradicts the Siemens statement. He categorically states that,

"the right to property in Russia and the plant is firm, selling equipment, can not impose any charges on the customer, including a ban on the resale and delivery to other regions"

whilst Siemens is trying to hide behind the figleaf of,

"we do not disclose details of individual contracts...... no reason to believe that the gas turbines mentioned in the news articles are destined for Crimea."

The statement of Siemens is a prime example of the resurgence, amongst the elites in Germany, of the Ostpolitik mentality, implemented by Willy Brandt (left, with his GDR Communist counterpart, Willi Stoph) in 1963, and mentioned by Judy Dempsey.

The Putinversteher Frank-Walter Steinmeier has, throughout this ongoing war between Putin and Ukraine, rigidly stuck to his version of Willy Brandt's 'Ostpolitik', as evidenced by his comments at a public event in Brussels organised by Carnegie Europe.

"Steinmeier was also asked to comment on conflicting reports about the military situation in eastern Ukraine, with the NATO military commander General Philip Breedlove saying that the situation is deteriorating, while the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) states that the cease fire is holding.

The German minister did not criticise NATO, but his answer appeared to suggest that he put more stock in the OSCE findings." (EurActiv : 17 Mar 2015)

And while Steimeier truies to believe that the Minsk2 'ceasefire' is holding,

Mustafa Pazarlı informs us that as recently as one day ago,

"Two Ukrainian government soldiers were killed in clashes with pro-Russian separatists in the east of the country, an official said on Wednesday.

In a press conference in Kiev, presidential spokesman Alexander Motuzyanik claimed the separatists had violated the Minsk cease-fire agreement 40 times over a 24-hour period." (Ideonews : Jul 8, 2015)

Meanwhile,

"Representatives from Russia, Ukraine, militant forces and Europe's OSCE watchdog have met in the Belarusian capital Minsk for further talks towards finding a diplomat solution to stem the conflict in east Ukraine.

In a briefing after the talks, OSCE Special Ambassador Martin Sajdik said the decision on pulling out of less than 100 mm caliber weapons may be reached at the next meeting." (Ukraine Today : Jul. 8, 2015)

Even more significantly, Dmitry Zaks informs us that,

"Kiev said Tuesday that Russia had cut off electricity to Ukraine's rebel-run regions in what appears to be another sign that Moscow is losing interest in plans to splinter its neighbour.
...
Ukraine's Energy Minister Volodymyr Demchyshyn said Tuesday that energy-rich Russia had recently also stopped supplying electricity to the militia-run regions of Lugansk and Donetsk because bills were not being paid." (AFP :July 7, 2015) (my emphasis)

Whilst Putin may have cut off electricity to the rebel-held territory, this does not explain away why he is reinforcing eastern Ukraine with yet more Russian soldiers and militrary equipment, as exposed by Dan Lamothe.
 
"A Ukrainian group that backs the government in Kiev on Tuesday published video captured by drone aircraft and said it shows a Russian military encampment in eastern Ukraine, bolstering claims that Moscow has expanded its military actions there." (Washington Post : June 30, 2015) (my emphasis) 

So why, really, has Putin cut off electricity to his proxies and Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine?

(to be continued)

Putin's 'Trojan Horse' Alexis Tsipras, and the German Army exercising in Ukraine.

On the same day that Greece voted to reject the austerity conditions set out by the ECB (European Central Bank) before it receives further funding to keep its failing economy afloat,  Jackson Diehl  (left) posed the following question,

"Will this be remembered as the summer when the West let Ukraine die? 

And he answered it by saying that,

"It’s beginning to look like it." (The Washington Post : July 5, 2015) (my emphasis)

Now that the dust has settled on the Greek 'No!' vote, Diehl seems to be right. There is a growing chorus of commentators who are expressing the same attitude as Diehl. 

Diane Francis (right), writing in the New York Post, quoted John Herbst (below left) as saying,

“The struggle in Ukraine is more serious than ISIS” ....
 .......
 “It’s very simple. Any military thinker looks at a threat — what is the [possible] damage? Putin wants to change the peace established in 1991 and after World War II.” (New York Post : July 5, 2015) (my emphasis)

Even Anders Aslund (right), a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, has stated that "Putin's war on Ukraine is more important than Greek Debt." (KyivPost : 6 July, 2015). He stated that,

"For one year, Russia has pursued a long, costly war of aggression against Ukraine. Its objective is obvious: to destabilize Ukraine so that the new democratic regime fails. Therefore, the West should adjust its goals accordingly to offer Ukraine financial support." (ibid KyivPost) (my emphasis)

Jackson Diehl rather succinctly sums up the sidelining of Ukraine by stating that,

"German Chancellor Angela Merkel and her Eurozone EU partners are preoccupied with the crisis in Greece; 

[whilst] Barack Obama is intently focused on completing a nuclear bargain with Iran.

Western governments have taken no new action either to prevent a new Russian military offensive this summer or to provide Ukraine’s government with the funds it needs to survive through another year." (ibid Diehl) (my emphasis)

To put this into perspective, let us for a moment compare Greek with Ukrainian external debt.

External Debt in Ukraine decreased to $125.967 billion in the first quarter of 2015 from $126.307 USD Million in the fourth quarter of 2014.

In other words, Ukraine's external debt has FALLEN by $340 million since the beginning of this year.

Greek external debt currently stands at  €320 billion i.e. $351 billion.

Yet Tsipras is calling for another bailout from the ECB (European Central Bank), which will simply INCREASE Greece's debt burden.

And Putin is standing in the wings to help bail Tsipras out. "Alexis Tsipras, had telephoned the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, to discuss the consequences of the referendum in which Greeks voted by 61 per cent to 39 per cent to reject the EU’s previous austerity demands......

During the call, the Kremlin said, Mr Putin “expressed support for the Greek people in overcoming the difficulties facing their country” and that they discussed “several questions about the further development of Russian-Greek  co-operation”. (Leo Cendrowicz , Ben Chu: The Independent : Tuesday 07 July 2015) (my emphasis)

Putin must be jumping with joy that the current focus of attention of the EU members is now on the Greek financial tragedy, and that all eyes have now been diverted from his military buildup in eastern Ukraine for his impending assault against Mariupol.

Added to which, his support of Alexis Tsipras falls into line with his aim to ensure that the EU is mired in conflics that, he hopes, will tear it apart.


As Gordon Rayner  (left) reports,

“For Mr Hamon (the former French education minister and ally of Francois Hollande), the resounding “no” vote was “an opportunity for Francois Hollande to resume leadership” in Europe.

Old divisions run deep across the continent, and the Greek crisis brought them right back to the surface as Europe’s financial superpowers squabbled like children at playtime.

Watching gleefully from the wings was the Russian President Vladimir Putin, who took the opportunity to stir the pot by ringing the Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and offering to strengthen “Russian-Greek co-operation”.(The Telegraph : 06 Jul 2015) (my emphasis)

More importantly that,

"Major banks now rate a Greek exit from the euro as a probability. The man installed as Greece’s new finance minister believes a Grexit would lead to the “break-up” of the Eurozone." (ibid Gordon Rayner) (my emphasis)

If, however, Alexis Tsipras has, wittingly or unwittingly, cast himself in the role of Putin's 'Trojan Horse' to destroy the Eurozone, NATO has not taken its eye off Putin's military build-up in eastern Ukraine.

At the explicit request of Poroshenko, NATO Rapid Trident  and Sea Breeze military exercises are to take place in Ukraine.

"German state news agency Deutsche Welle reported Sunday (July 05) that the German Army would participate in  two military exercises [Rapid Trident and Sea Breeze] in Ukraine.
......
Rapid Trident supports interoperability among Ukraine, US, NATO and Partnership for Peace member nations.

Participating nations' forces include Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Canada, Georgia, Germany, Great Britain, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Norway, Poland, Romania, Spain, and the US.

The Rapid Trident exercise comes at the explicit request of the Ukrainian government and military." (Ukraine Today : Jul. 5, 2015)

Furthermore,

"The Swedish military say fighter aircraft were scrambled on Saturday to intercept two Russian Tupolev planes.

The Russian planes flew over parts of the southern Baltic, and came close to Swedish airspace.

They were followed by several nations' air forces, according to a press release from the Swedish Armed Forces." (Ukraine Today : Jul. 4, 2015) (my emphasis)

 

Perhaps even more significant, as Vitaliy Portnikov explains,

"Both countries [Putin's Russian and Ukraine] have almost the same decline in GDP: 

Ukraine – 4 percent as compared with the fourth quarter of last year. 

In Russia it’s 3.5 percent.

And this despite the fact that Ukraine has lost territory, while Russia has acquired territory. 

This despite the fact that there is a war in Ukraine, while in Russia there is peace. 

This despite the fact that Ukraine has no energy to export, while Russia has both oil and gas. 

Nevertheless, the Russian economy is going to hell in a handbasket! (EuroMaidan Press : 05/07/2015)

(to be continued)  

Is Putin teetering on the edge of the abyss of an all-out war with Ukraine?

In a recent interview with Leonid Kravchuk (below right), the first president of an independent Ukraine, Diane Francis (left) informs us that, “Putin’s policy is to conquer Ukraine and keep it a slave. He wants to restore the Greater Russian Empire, not the Soviet Union,” [Kravchuk] said.

 

This philosophy, he said, is no different than Hitler’s who wanted to incorporate all Germanic people under an expanded Third Reich empire.

“Western Europe gave Hitler lands bit by bit. He swallowed these bits and decided to take everything. Now Europe doesn’t resist [Putin] in order to avert World War III. But Putin’s popularity in Russia is not because of his democratic reforms or economic prosperity. He’s popular because of his aggressiveness." (KyivPost : July 5, 2015) (my emphasis)

Nowhere is Putin's aggressiveness currently more evident than in the escalating buildup of Russian military forces and military equipment in eastern Ukraine.

As reported by Ukraine Today (UT),

"Moscow threatens to use nuclear weapons to defend annexed Crimea.

More than 50,000 Russian troops and over 30,000 militants are concentrated along the Ukrainian border and in eastern Ukraine, Ukrainian army officials claimed on Friday (July 03).

The announcement came days after a drone video was published online appearing to show a large Russian military camp deep inside Ukraine's Donbas region. The video shows T-72 tanks, scores of soldiers, construction equipment and tents, and shows that activity had increased in recent weeks." (UT : Jul. 4, 2015) (my emphasis)

The question that now needs to be asked is:

"Will Obama, Merkel, and Hollande, continue to resist arming Ukraine with lethal defensive weapons because of their 'fear' that it would spark Putin into unleashing all-out nuclear war against them, even in the face of all the current evidence of him gathering his military forces in eastern Ukraine for his impending attack on Mariupol ?" 

Yet again are we confronted by the glaring truth revealed by Kravchuk namely that,

“Putin’s policy is to conquer Ukraine and keep it a slave. He wants to restore the Greater Russian Empire, not the Soviet Union,” [Kravchuk] said." (ibid Diane Francis)

How many more 'bits' of Ukraine is he going to be allowed to 'swallow' before President Obama, Angela Merkel, and Francois Hollande, in particular, will say, "Enough is enough!", and begin to arm Ukraine with lethal defensive weaponry?

Max Fisher (left) has written that Fyodor Lukyanov (right), widely considered both an influential leader and an unofficial interpreter of Russia's foreign policy establishment, (and also close to Sergey Lavrov!), has stated that, 

"The atmosphere is a feeling that war is not something that’s impossible anymore," Lukyanov told me, describing a growing concern within Moscow's foreign policy elite.

"A question that was absolutely impossible a couple of years ago, whether there might be a war, a real war, is back," he said. "People ask it." (Vox : June 29, 2015) (my emphasis)

More disturbingly, Fisher warns us that,

"To solve the problem of Russia's conventional military weakness, [Putin] has dramatically lowered the threshold for when he would use nuclear weapons, hoping to terrify the West such that it will bend to avoid conflict. 

In public speeches, over and over, he references those weapons and his willingness to use them.

He has enshrined, in Russia's official nuclear doctrine, a dangerous idea no Soviet leader ever adopted: that a nuclear war could be winnable." (ibid Max Fisher) (my emphasis)

Which brings us back to Leonid Kravchuk who said that,

"...Putin’s popularity in Russia is not because of his democratic reforms or economic prosperity. He’s popular because of his aggressiveness." (ibid Diane Francis)

That drone which showed us just how Putin is building up his Russian military camp deep inside Ukraine's Donbas region should give us all serious pause for concern.

Putin is indeed not popular with the Russian people for his democratic reforms or economic prosperity, but rather for his invasion of, and annexing of, Ukrainian Crimea.

How many more 'bits' of Ukraine are we going to allow him to swallow?

(to be continued)

Putin's avalanche of lies threatening to overwhelm him....

On the 24 April, 2015,  David Blair and Tom Parfitt (left) reported from Moscow that,

"Russia is carrying out a new military build-up in eastern Ukraine, massing troops on the border and deploying advanced air defences inside its neighbour, according to the US State Department." (The Telegraph : 23 Apr 2015)

And on the 30 June, 2015, Dan Lamothe informed us that,

"A Ukrainian group that backs the government in Kiev on Tuesday (30 June, 2015) published video captured by drone aircraft and said it shows a Russian military encampment in eastern Ukraine, bolstering claims that Moscow has expanded its military actions there." (Washington Post : 30 June, 2015) (my emphasis) (cf: also MailOnline)

Following close on the heels of the release of this video, that has now gone viral internationally, the Pentagon published on Wednesday (July 1, 2015) its updated 'US National Military Strategy' in which it states that,

"Russia had contributed to global security in areas such as fighting the narcotics trade and terrorism but had "repeatedly demonstrated that it does not respect the sovereignty of its neighbors and it is willing to use force to achieve its goals".

"Russia's military actions are undermining regional security directly and through proxy forces," it added, naming Russia among "revisionist-minded" states." (Maria Tsvetkova : Reuters : Thu Jul 2, 2015) (my emphasis)

Putin's Kremlin mouthpiece, Dmitry Peskov (left), immediately responded by saying that,

"The use of such language in this document points, shall we say, to what is probably a confrontational attitude devoid of any objectivity towards our country."

"Of course this will hardly contribute to attempts to steer bilateral relations in the direction of normalization," he added, calling for more cooperation between Russia and the United States on global matters" (ibid Maria Tsvetkova) (my emphasis)

And if the release of the US Military Strategy caused Putin to have a hissy fit, then the release of the document 'Russian Aggression Against Ukraine' by the Security Service of Ukraine must have caused him to go into an apopletic rage since it identifies the Russian Generals active in eastern Ukraine.

As reported by Ben Hoyle,

"Five Russian generals and a Russian colonel have been identified as playing core leadership roles with separatist rebels in east Ukraine, according to an intelligence dossier presented to the Obama administration." (The Times : July 4 2015) 
(from left to right: Generals Valerii Solodchuk, Oleg Tsekov, Aleksei Zavizion, Roman Shadrin, and Sergey Kuzovlev)
 

Disconcertingly, the latest news from the OSCE monitoring mission (3 July, 2015) in Ukraine is that there seems to be an escalation in the breaking down of the Minsk2 'ceasefire'. (cf: also OSCE 'Summary table of ceasefire violations')

The question that now needs to be asked is whether Putin is now focussing on an all out invasion of Mariupol from eastern Ukraine, primarily to undermine not only the tiny shoots of recovery in the Ukrainain economy but to undermine also, as reported by Alessandra Prentice, that,

"The head of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said it plans to invest up to around $1 billion in Ukraine this year, including in the gas sector, provided real reforms are implemented." (Reuters :  Fri Jul 3, 2015) (my emphasis)

 

Added to which, as reported by Daryna Krasnolutska, Elena Mazneva, and Alexander Weber,

"Ukraine halted purchases of Russian natural gas after its bigger neighbour took away most of a price discount and declined to sign a three-way accord with the European Union through the winter heating season.

Ukraine’s gas company NAK Naftogaz Ukrainy won’t buy gas from Russia as of Wednesday and will continue purchases from the EU, Energy Minister Volodymyr Demchyshyn (left) said." (Bloomberg Business : July 1, 2015) (my emphasis) (Cf: also Putin's propaganda mouthpiece, RT, and blog entry Wednesday, 1 July 2015)

As the reforms within the Ukrainian economy, and the Ukrainian legal apparatus in particular, begins to take hold, other than an imminent invasion of Mariupol by Putin's Russian soldiers and his proxy rebel forces, Putin will simply not be able sustain the avalanche of lies and deceptions that he not only has heaped upon the Russian people, but also upon the world.

Per Kristian Hong (right) rightly speculates whether,

"For an economy that weathered the 2008-2009 crisis on the back of sustained consumerism, the implications are potentially significant. 

But with a real, material loss in consumer confidence, how long will the Russian people be willing to tolerate a drop in the living standards they have grown accustomed to over the past 15 years? 

Will President Putin’s popularity continue to withstand a sustained, multi-year, protracted fall in economic prosperity? No one can know for sure and we can only conjecture on possible scenarios around what the social and political ramifications might be." (LinkedIn : Jun 1, 2015) (my emphasis)

As a possible and ominous indicator of the war-footing that Putin is rather subtly introducing to the Russian people as he prepares for an invasion of Mariupol, the Moscow Times reported that,

"Russia's Central Bank has proposed using private pension funds to build 200 vegetable storage warehouses in order to battle high inflation and boost domestic agriculture, news agency TASS reported Wednesday, citing a top bank official." (Moscow Times : Jun. 10 2015) (my emphasis)

We can but wait and see.

(to be continued)

  

Putin, Tsipras, and Putin's changing 'offensive' strategy against Ukraine.

Last month (19 June, 2015), Neil MacFarquhar reported  that,

"... [Putin] and [Alexis Tsipras] produced a grand pageant of solidarity, friendship and supposed economic cooperation at Russia’s annual gathering for global business executives Friday, but the embrace seemed mostly about thumbing their noses at Europe." (New York Times : June 19, 2015) (my emphasis) (cf: also blog entry (20 June, 2015))

Furthermore, Sandy MacIntyre and Nataliya Vasilyeva also reported that,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin said after Friday's talks with Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras that a prospective Russian natural gas pipeline should help Greece service its debt, but the Kremlin said the question of direct Russian financial aid to Greece was not discussed.

..."We are starting a new era in Greek-Russian relations and we consider you who live here [in Russia] to be playing a very important part in this effort," Tsipras said. " (AP : 20 June, 2015) (my emphasis)

This grandstanding between Putin and Tsipras has, however, fallen flat on its face.

A few hours ago (July 1, 2015), Tsipras has finally cut Greece adrift in a sea of debt; a sea of debt that simply cannot be serviced by the proposed Russian natural gas pipeline to be developed in Greece.

Will Putin now come to the rescue of his newfound EU bosom buddy Tsipras who may, pending the result of the Greek referendum this coming Saturday (4 July, 2015), have to resign his post as prime minister of Greece?

Putin cannot afford the billions that is required to make his annexed Ukrainian Crimea a viable economic entity.

Neither can he, as Mary Chastain reports, live up to his,

".... promise “to spend 22 trillion rubles (over $400 billion) through 2020 to give the armed forces dozens of navy ships, hundreds of new planes and missiles and thousands of tanks and other weapons.” But his nuclear-armed intercontinental missile program has been delayed, which means the first missile will not be available for several months. There are no specific details regarding why it is taking so long. (Breitbart : 28 June, 2015) (my emphasis)

Added to which, as reported by Daryna Krasnolutska, Elena Mazneva, and Alexander Weber,

"Ukraine halted purchases of Russian natural gas after its bigger neighbor took away most of a price discount and declined to sign a three-way accord with the European Union through the winter heating season.

Ukraine’s gas company NAK Naftogaz Ukrainy won’t buy gas from Russia as of Wednesday and will continue purchases from the EU, Energy Minister Volodymyr Demchyshyn (left) said." (Bloomberg Business : July 1, 2015) (my emphasis) (Cf: also Putin's propaganda mouthpiece, RT)

Putin's Russian economy, that is falling into an even deeper recession than previously predicted, cannot afford to loose ANY customers for its gas exports. 

As reported by Boby Michael,

"The Russian economy contracted more than expected in May, increasing the likelihood of further rate cuts by the world's ninth largest economy, while the rouble fell to a 11-day low against the dollar.

The Russian Federation's economy shrank 4.9% from a year earlier in May, registering its fifth straight month of contraction, and deeper than April's 4.2% decline." (International Business Times: June 26, 2015) (my emphasis)

Yet Putin continues to accelerate the movement of arms and Russian soldiers into eastern Ukraine.

As the top NATO commander, Air Force Gen. Philip M. Breedlove (left), said last week that,

" .... the border between Ukraine and Russia is “wide open,” and Moscow’s military action in the region is carefully orchestrated to keep pressure on Ukraine from aligning too closely with the West. There is a “constant flow” of troops and equipment across the border, he added." (Dan Lamothe : Washington Post : 30 June, 2015) (my emphasis)

Lamothe further informs us that,

"A Ukrainian group that backs the government in Kiev on Tuesday published video captured by drone aircraft and said it shows a Russian military encampment in eastern Ukraine, bolstering claims that Moscow has expanded its military actions there." (ibid Dan Lamothe) (my emphasis) 

Meanwhile the OSCE continues to report on an increase in the breaking of the Minsk2 'ceasefire'. 

Yesterday (30 June, 2015) it reported that,

"The SMM monitored the implementation of the “Package of measures for the implementation of the Minsk agreements”. Its monitoring was restricted by third parties and security considerations*. The fighting at and around Donetsk airport continued with increased intensity compared to the previous few days. The SMM conducted crater analysis. The overall situation in Luhansk remained tense..." (OSCE : 30 June, 2015) (my emphasis)   

Bearing in mind the current Greek economic disaster, the yet-again exposing of Russian troops and armaments in eastern Ukraine, and the continuing contracting of Putin's Russian economy; 

Paul Goble (left) informs us that Andrey Piontkovsky (right), Russian political writer and analyst, is of the opinion that,

"Vladimir Putin’s “peace offensive,” marked by his call to US President Barack Obama, means that the situation [in Ukraine] is becoming “really dangerous,” Andrey Piontkovsky says, because the Kremlin leader has not changed his goal of destroying Ukraine as a state but only the means he is prepared to use to get there.

            And those means, including his oft-repeated commitment to maintaining the territorial integrity of Ukraine “minus Crimea of course,” include the insertion of a cancerous tumor within the boundaries of that country and the election of pro-Russian candidates to the Verkhovna Rada, may be even more dangerous than a direct military attack." (Window on Eurasia : Monday, June 29, 2015) (cf also: EuroMaidan Press) (my emphasis)
 
At this point in time Putin is more unpredictable and more dangerous than ever, as  Andrey Piontkovsky says, now that his 'maskirovka' diplomatic strategy to sow the seeds of dissent within the EU has taken a body blow because of the EU not bowing to the Greek demands of his buddy Tsipras.

(to be continued)