Has Putin over-played his hand in Syria?

Rather presciently, and alluding to Putin's 'little green men' that invaded and annexed Ukrainian Crimea almost two years ago, Poroshenko said at the 12 annual (10th September, 2015) YES (Yalta European Strategy) conference that,

"These days, 'green men' are landing in the hundreds in Syria" (cf. video below)

And five days ago, Putin's cruise missiles were fired on Syrians (NOT Isil!) that are fighting to overthrow Bashar Al Assad, a bosom 'buddy' of Putin's, who thus far has killed more than 150,000 of his own people. (cf. video below)

As Edward Lucas (left) states,

"The weapons that Russia is sending [to Syria] are not an attempt to settle the conflict. They are there to protect the Assad regime, which is its cause. Moreover, ISIL does not have warplanes: Russia’s air defense missiles are in Syria for a different purpose." (Politico : October 1st, 2015) (my emphasis)


This 'overkill' on the part of Putin, to try and re-assert himself as a 'global player', and to deflect the gaze of the world away from his war with Ukraine is, as Marcel Michelson (right) states,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin is strengthening his negotiating power with the European Union, and the United States, in the standoff around Ukraine by backing Bashar al-Assad in Syria and bombing rebel militants there, even if they do not belong to Islamic State." (Forbes Business : 5 October, 2015) (my emphasis)

Ironically, aiding and abbeting Putin's 'negotiating power with the European Union, and the United States, in the standoff around Ukraine', is the flood of economic migrants/refugees from Syria, Afghanistan, and many countries from the North of Africa, into the EU.

The turmoil that this has caused beween some EU states and, more importantly, the invigoration of Right-wing and Extreme Right-wing parties in EU countries that this mass migration has precipitated, is playing right into Putin's hands. Right-wing political organizations from Greece and Hungary to Austria and France are once again in the ascendent.

 And since Putin already bankrolls Marine Le Pen's 'Front National' in France, what is to prevent him from pouring billions of Roubles into the coffers of other Right-wing and extreme Right wing organizations in other EU countries?

As reported by the BBC,

"Bavarian state premier Horst Seehofer (left) said "we need to restrict immigration in order to maintain the public's solidarity with those in need of protection".

He also said a cap on the numbers was necessary "to guarantee our domestic security". (BBC : 9 October 2015) (my emphasis)

Already,

"The German government says there have been almost 500 attacks on homes intended for asylum seekers this year - three times more than in 2014.

German Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere called such violence "shameful". Two-thirds of the attacks were carried out by locals who had no previous criminal record, he said." (ibid BBC) (my emphasis)

Against this backdrop of Syria, the resurgence of Right-Wing sentiment in many EU member states, and the flood of economic migrants/refugees across the EU, the situtation in Ukraine has painfully inched foreward.

Andrew Rettman (left) reports that,

"The EU and US have welcomed the halt of rogue elections in Russia-occupied Ukraine, but concessions could harm pro-Western leaders in Kiev.
The EU foreign service said on Tuesday (6 October) the election decision "offers renewed hope for a sustainable political settlement". (EuObserver : 7. Oct., 2015) (my emphasis)

As Rettman further reports,

"... French, German, Russian, and Ukrainian leaders held talks in Paris last Friday.
The new "truce" resulted in modification of the "Minsk 2" ceasefire accord.

Under Minsk, rebels were to hold elections under Ukrainian law, foreign forces were to leave Ukraine, and Russia was to give it back control of its borders by the end of the year.

Under Paris, Ukraine is to pass a special law on the Donetsk and Luhansk votes and implementation is to lag into 2016." (ibid Rettman)

Already,

"...Sergio Mattarella , the Italian president, told the Tass news agency on Tuesday "it's important to restore a climate of partnership and full trust [with Russia]". (right: Matarella and Bettel)
 
Xavier Bettel , the Luxembourg PM, also discussed EU sanctions relief when he met Russian president Vladimir Putin in Sochi on Tuesday." (ibid Rettman) (my emphasis)

And whilst Matarella and Bettel want the EU sanctions against Putin's Russia to be removed,

".... Raimonds Vejonis, the Latvian president (left), told the Wall Street Journal ahead of the Paris meeting: “It’s very difficult to trust such a partner [Putin]”.( Andrew Rettman : EuObserver : 3. Oct., 2015)

Vejonis could equally have said,

"His [Putin's] mouth is full of cursing and deceit and fraud: under his tongue is mischief and vanity"

In my last blog entry I pointed out that,

"The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, which is monitoring a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine, reported that its monitors had seen a mobile TOS-1 'Buratino' weapons system for the first time.

The Buratino is equipped with thermobaric warheads which spread a flammable liquid around a target and then ignite it. It can destroy several city blocks in one strike and cause indiscriminate damage.

Only Russia produces the system and it was not exported to Ukraine before the conflict broke out .." (Reuters : Fri Oct 2, 2015)

This development underlines what Obama said to Steve Kroft during a recent CBS News interview.

President Barack Obama: Well-- Steve, I got to tell you, if you think that running your economy into the ground and having to send troops in, in order to prop up your only ally is leadership, then we've got a different definition of leadership. (CBS News : 9 October,2015) (cf: video below)

(to be continued)

Is Putin's Syrian gambit doomed to failure?

Putin's UN speech has come and gone, and now his Syrian gambit is being played out as he begins to shore up the belleagured Bashar Al Assad by indiscriminately bombing all that he perceives as 'terrorists'.

As that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov (left), recently said,

"Russia's airstrikes in Syria "do not go beyond ISIL (ISIS), al Nusra or other terrorist groups recognized by the United Nations Security Council or Russian law," Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Thursday.

Pushed to define "other terrorist groups," Lavrov said: "If it looks like a terrorist, if it acts like a terrorist, if it walks like a terrorist, if it fights like a terrorist, it's a terrorist, right?" (Don Melvin, Susannah Cullinane and Mohammed Tawfeeq: CNN : October 1, 2015) (my emphasis)

Lavrov's definition of a 'terrorist' rather neatly fits Putin's rebel proxies in eastern Ukraine. 

Poroshenko has always, correctly, identified Putin's proxies in eastern Ukraine as 'terrorists'. 

Yet, for Putin they were seen as 'defenders of the Russian language and identity'; as his 'shock-troops' in the re-creation of Novorossiya.

As in the case of Yanukovich, Putin is using the same type of argument in his coming to the defence of Bashar Al Assad viz. that Assad is the legitimate ruler of Syria who is 'wrongly' wanting to be overthrown by 'terrorists'. (right: Assad and Yanukovich)

Putin rather conveniently forgets that Yanukovich 'fled' Ukraine, and now sits safely ensconced in Russia with all the billions of dollars that he stole from the Ukrainian people.

As Roman Popadiuk, former US ambassador to Ukraine, states,

"... he [Putin] has a vested interest in his policy in Ukraine, and he'll make the case for it, whether it is in an international forum or in press interviews, that the Russians had a right to be involved in that situation ..." (cf. video below)

Similarly, Putin has a vested interest in Syria that has absolutely nothing to do with fighting ISIS, the group that the coalition forces are now fighting against in Syria and Iraq.

Besides coming to the defence of Bashar Al Assad, and the protecting of the Syrian naval base in Tartus (left), which gives the Russian navy direct accesss into the Mediterannean sea,

" ....he can use the meeting [between himself and Obama] to show his domestic audience that he is a key player ... that he is not isolated ... and thereby show the strength that he has to the Russian people  that, even though they're undergoing hardships, he is making Russia great again .... " (Roman Popadiuk : see video below)

 

And whilst Putin is trying to rescucitate himself as a world leader on the international stage,

Anton Zverev reports that,

"The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, which is monitoring a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine, reported that its monitors had seen a mobile TOS-1 'Buratino' weapons system for the first time.

The Buratino is equipped with thermobaric warheads which spread a flammable liquid around a target and then ignite it. It can destroy several city blocks in one strike and cause indiscriminate damage.

Only Russia produces the system and it was not exported to Ukraine before the conflict broke out .." (Reuters : Fri Oct 2, 2015)

 Against this information from the OSCE, can we really say that the Paris meeting between Merkel, Hollande, Poroshenko, and Putin on Friday (2nd October, 2015) was somewhat successful?

At this meeting the following were agreed upon: (cf: VOA, UNIAN, amongst other reports)

1) .. Local elections planned this month in areas under the control of Russian-backed separatists will be postponed by at least three months.
2) .. Poroshenko said his government would pass a bill granting a specific status to those regions. (controlled by Putin's proxies)
3) .. Putin promised to have an envoy discuss (only discuss!) the election issues with rebel leaders to get them to agree on the delay. (cf (1))
4) .. the start of the weapons withdrawal (What about the mobile TOS-1 'Buratino' weapons system seen be members of the OSCE for the first time?)
5) .. [that Ukraine will retake] further control of the border [with Russia] step-by-step, and all foreign troops will be withdrawn from Ukraine

But most critical of all, as reported by Michel Rose, Jean-Baptiste Vey and Noah Barkin,

"It will take time to organise elections in Ukraine that respect international standards and as a result, the so-called Minsk peace process will run into next year, French President Francois Hollande said on Friday." (Reuters :  Fri Oct 2, 2015) (my emphasis)

This delay in the full implementation of the Minsk2 protocols signifies, more than anything else, that Putin wishes the world to focus on Syria, at the expense of focussing on his war with Ukraine.

But Obama seems not to be falling into his Syrian diplomatic trap.

"This is not some super-power chess board contest, and anyone who frames it in that way isn't paying close attention ..." (cf: Reuters video below)

Perhaps the most significant indicator that Putin's aim is to deflect the gaze of the world away from Ukraine and towards Syria is evidenced by his Ruaaisn propaganda machine now switching its attention from Ukraine to the events in Syria.

As reported by Reid Standish (right),

"Since fighting broke out in eastern Ukraine 18 months ago, Moscow has used its state media and top-level denial to mask its military involvement in the conflict and rebuke growing evidence suggesting Russian troops supported — and sometimes directly fought alongside — separatist forces.

Now, less than a week into its game-changing foray into Syria, the Kremlin may be deploying similar tactics to deflect accusations that Russia is more interested in protecting its ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, than going after the Islamic State. (Foreign Policy : October 2, 2015) (my emphasis)

Already there is growing discontent amongst his proxies in eastern Ukraine.

As Kim Sengupta reports from rebel-held Donetsk,

"The soldier, an ethnic Chechen, is one of dozens of casualties who complain that the sacrifices they have made to establish the People’s Republic are being ignored; and [Putin's rebel proxies] that [are] supposed to administer compensation are proving elusive, or are fobbing off the wounded with excuses.
......
Not only do soldiers like him feel let down by the failings of the rebel authorities over compensation, they also feel shunned in other ways. “They really should not ignore us – this war is not over. It will continue, if not this year, then next year,” he said. (The Independent : Friday 2 October 2015) (my emphasis) 

There does seem to be an inevitability about Putin's Syrian gambit. 

Was it because he no longer could stand his growing 'pariah status' amongst the international community because of his annexation of Ukrainian Crimea and his subsequent invasion of eastern Ukraine?

Was it to regain his status amongst the Arab nations, even though he may be burning his bridges with those Arab nations who are part of the current international coalition now fighting against ISIS?  

Was it to satisfy his naval Admirals to protect the growing Russian naval base at Tartus and their access to the Mediterannean sea?

Or is it, as Paul-Quinn Judge suggests,

"Putin’s task on the ground in Ukraine is becoming more complicated.

If Russia really wants to pull out, it has to wind up a small but stubborn political local leadership and a quite large militia structure of at least 20,000 fighters that it has generously equipped with artillery and heavy armour.

It will discover, if it has not done so already, that separatist leaders have developed their own, usually corrupt, interests, and may not go quietly, and that fighters, abandoned to their own resources, may turn to crime." (New Eastern Europe : Wednesday, 30 September 2015) (my emphasis)

(to be continued)

Putin, Obama, and Poroshenko at the UN. Putin's poisoned chalice.

On 17th September, 2015, Ivan Tsvetkov was already speculating about what Putin would say in his September 28th address to the UN General Assembly.

"All eyes and ears will be tuned to the Russian president for potentially scandalous denunciations of the United States and its allies, and off-the-wall solutions to international exigencies." (Russia Direct : 17th September, 2015) (my emphasis)

And when his turn to address the UN General Assembly on Monday,

" [the] much-anticipated speech by President Vladimir Putin to the United Nations General Assembly on Monday saw the Russian leader criticize Western policy in the Middle East and Ukraine, but did not deliver any surprises or dramatic new policy initiatives." (Howard Amos : Moscow Times : Sep. 28 2015)

In fact, his speech rather failed to surprise, even though,

"The build-up to Putin's address was given blanket coverage by state-controlled media in Russia with newscasters and pundits promising a "historic" moment." (ibid Howards Amos) (my emphasis)

 

As anticipated, Putin used this world stage to deflect international eyes away from Ukraine, concentrating instead on the current critical situation in Syria.

Prior to Putin mounting the rostrum to deliver his speech, Obama had already used his annexation of Crimea, and his invasion of eastern Ukraine, as examples of the trampling over the principles of what the UN is built upon, and for what it stands.

Poroshenko, in his address to the UN General Assembly,

"...  derided Russia's call for the creation of an international antiterrorism coalition, saying the Russians inspire terrorism on their own doorstep and back bellicose puppet governments.
........
Poroshenko renewed accusations that Russia finances, trains and supplies pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine, while sending heavy weapons and Russian troops, with insignias removed from their uniforms, to help battle Ukrainian forces loyal to the Kiev government."(Louis Charbonneau : Reuters : Tue Sep 29) (my emphasis)

Posroshenko rather succinctly expressed what Aleksandr Golts suggests, namely that,

"Vladimir Putin has nothing positive to offer toward the resolution of any of the crises he has helped create, but he has succeeded in getting a meeting today with US President Barack Obama because the Kremlin leader has shown himself capable of causing ever more crises, something others want to prevent if they can.

            That diplomatic strategy may get Putin the international attention Putin craves and likely needs to shore up his position at home as a leader who never makes mistakes, Aleksandr Golts suggests in today’s “Yezhednevny zhurnal,” but it is a profoundly dangerous one not only for the world but for Russia and Putin himself ... " (Paul Goble : Windows on Eurasia : Monday, September 28, 2015) (my emphasis)

   
Putin has used this strategy of 'crisis' creation before, notably against the Russian people, when his FSB agents orchestrated the 1999 bombings of apartment blocks in Russian cities which triggered Russia's onslaught in Chechnya.(cf: BBC News : RFERL : Amy Knight ..... amongst many other investigations that directly link Putin to the Moscow bombings in 1999)

Underscoring Putin's rather callous use of crises to shore up his vanishing stature as a world leader, Gardiner Harris and Somini Sengupta report that,

"In remarks about foreign Islamic State fighters that seemed clearly aimed at stoking fears in Europe, Mr. Putin said: “We cannot allow these criminals who have already felt the smell of blood to return back home and continue their evil doings. No one wants this to happen, does he?” (New York Times : Sept. 28, 2015) (my emphasis)

Perhaps even more indicative of Putin's total callousness towards the suffering of people is evidenced by the fact that his rebel-proxies in eastern Ukraine,

"...have forced UN humanitarian aid workers out of Ukraine, sparking fears millions of lives are at risk.
.....
The "alarming" ousting of UN agencies and NGO's has resulted in the suspension of vital humanitarian supplies into eastern parts of Ukraine, as the winter months approach.
UN aid chief Stephen O'Brien said the delivery of some 16,000 tons of supplies had been stopped, which he believes is "having a serious impact on some 3 million people."
He said: "Hospitals cannot perform surgery because they lack anaesthesia. Some 150,000 people are not receiving monthly food distributions." (Rebecca Perring : Express : Fri, Sep 25, 2015)

Let us remind ourselves that this action of Putin's rebel proxies in eastern Ukraine mirrors the actions of Putin in May of this year.

"President Vladimir Putin signed a bill into law Saturday giving prosecutors the power to declare foreign and international organizations "undesirable" in Russia and shut them down.
Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International have condemned the measure as part of an "ongoing draconian crackdown which is squeezing the life out of civil society."

The law is part of a Kremlin campaign to stifle dissent that intensified after Putin began his third term in 2012." (The World Post : 24/05/2015) (my emphasis)

Putin's proposal for an "international anti-terrorist coalition" is a poisoned chalice being presented to the world.

This proposal has nothing to do with the destruction of ISIS, nor with the beginning to resolve the crisis between Bashar Al Assad and the Syrian people.

Once again, Putin is cynically using the suffering of other people to shore up his increasingly tenuous hold on power.

(to be continued)

Putin's coming address to the UN General Assembly, and NATO's new agreements with Ukraine.

In 4 day's time, Putin will be mounting the rostrum at the UN to address the UN's General assembly.

What can we expect from him, since he, "... last attended the UN General Assembly in 2005"? (Moscow Times : Aug. 28 2015) (my emphasis)

No doubt he will be focusing on events in Syria, in particular trying to project himself as a 'bulwark against terrorism' whilst not even mentioning the fact that he is currently waging war in eastern Ukraine.

His denials about Russian soldiers not being in eastern Ukraine has been met with utter derision by the international community, especially in the face of a mountain of evidence showing that the Russian army is active in eastern Ukraine. Similar evidence is beginning to mount about Russian soldiers being active in Syria in support of Bashar Al Assad.

It is therefore no wonder that Ivan Tsvetkov (left) says that,

"As the leader of a great power, Putin should deliver a realistic assessment of the current threats to the world - primarily the Islamic State of Iraq and the Greater Syria (ISIS) - and show commitment to creating a mechanism of international cooperation that can withstand them, preferably under the auspices of the UN.  

However, given the present state of Russia-West relations cooperation is wishful thinking." (Russia Direct : Sep 17, 2015) (my emphasis)

Tsvetkov is correct in saying that any idea of co-operation between Russia and the West is, at this moment in time, wishful thinking.

Similarly, Eerik-Niiles Kross (left) and Molly K. McKew state that,

"....cooperation with Russia on Syria can have potentially disastrous consequences for the U.S., but too many Americans still don’t understand how closely linked these two headline conflicts are, and American policy has yet to confront the reality that Syria and Ukraine are part of the same mission for Russia—the destruction of the post-WWII architecture of the West." (Politico Magazine : September 22, 2015) (my emphasis)

And whilst Putin is pondering what he should say as he mounts the podium at the UN to address the General Assembly,

"NATO has expanded its cooperation with Ukraine, who hopes to be a full member in 2016, with the signing of new agreements on defense and technical cooperation.....

...Ukraine reaffirmed its NATO ambitions Tuesday, with Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk saying he hoped the country would become the organization’s 29th member in 2016." (World Bulletin : 23 September 2015 Wednesday) (my emphasis) 

And, with the help of NATO, dirty-bomb attack training is to take place in Ukraine.

"Ukraine aims to improve its ability to respond to a radioactive attack, and NATO aims to help.

... hundreds of civilian specialists, including British experts, will join Ukrainian Special Forces this week to simulate an event involving widespread contamination of an area with radioactive material."
(UT : Sep. 23, 2015) (my emphasis)

Furthermore,

"NATO is to modernise Ukraine's armed forces including with 'non-lethal' defensive equipment.
NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg on the last day of his trip to Ukraine said NATO would provide assistance in modernising Ukraine's armed forces, but without the supply of arms." (UT : Sep. 22, 2015) (my emphasis)

 

And whilst Ukraine is entering into defense and technical co-operation with NATO, and the Ukrainian army is to be modernised with the help of NATO, 

Anton Zverev reports that,

"Russia is planning a second major military base near the border with Ukraine, where NATO accuses Russian troops of helping pro-Moscow separatists fight Kiev's forces.

The new base will house 5,000 soldiers and heavy weaponry, according to public documents and people working at the site.

It is further east than one under construction in Belgorod region reported by Reuters earlier this month but still close to the border with separatist-held parts of Ukraine's eastern Luhansk region, where there has been heavy fighting." (Reuters : Wed Sep 23, 2015) (my emphasis)

This build-up of military bases near the Ukrainian border comes at the same time as Putin's rebel proxies in eastern Ukraine were, until recently, hell bent on carrying through their threat to hold an election in the eastern Ukraine territory currently under their control, that would have jeapordised  the current and rather fragile 'ceasefire'.

Milda Seputyte and Volodymyr Verbyany now inform us that,

"Separatist leaders in Ukraine are to propose delaying local elections by almost four months, signaling the increasing challenges of meeting a year-end deadline for implementing an agreement to resolve the conflict.

The self-declared Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic will suggest holding the elections on Feb. 21 at a meeting of the Ukraine contact group in Minsk .. " (Bloomberg Business : September 22, 2015) (my emphasis)

Notice, however, that these are only 'suggestions' and 'proposals' by Putin's rebel proxies of eastern Ukraine.

Notice, too, that this volte-face of Putin's rebel proxies has appeared rather suddenly, and coincidentally, just before Putin addresses the UN General Assembly next week.
  
What prevents them from going back on any 'suggestions or proposals' that they now may make, as soon as their commander-in-chief, Putin, has delivered his address to the UN General Assembly?

By so doing they will simply be imitating Putin himself, who is a master at going back on his 'word'. 

The diplomatic world is aware of this character trait of Putin. 

He is not to be trusted. He is a liar. After saying that 'little green men' had taken over Crimea, he later admitted publicly that they were, in fact, Russian soldiers.

So what will be the response of the UN General Assembly when he addresses them next week?

And lest we forget,

"Ukrainian military pilot Nadia Savchenko (left) has made a show of defiance, denying charges against her at the opening of her controversial trial in Russia.

She described the case, in which she is accused of involvement in the deaths of two Russian journalists, as a "piece of rubbish". (BBC News : 22 September 2015)

 
(to be continued)

Will Putin be able to regain his fallen stature when addressing the UN Assembly?

John Hall reports that,

"Ukrainian prosecutors are preparing charges against the director of a winery in Russian-occupied Crimea for allegedly uncorking a 240-year-old bottle for Russian President Vladimir Putin and former Italian premier Silvio Berlusconi.
........
Massandra was Ukrainian government property before being nationalized by Russia, following its annexation of Crimea in March 2014. It has rare wine and sherry dating back more than 200 years in its collection; one bottle fetched nearly £32,000 in 2001." (Mail Online : 18 September 2015) (my emphasis)

 Let us pause to remind ourselves about only some of the criminal charges that have been brought against the disgraced former prime minister of Italy, Silvio Berlusconi, a bosom buddy of Putin.

(1) Connection to the Mafia: Defendant together with Marcello Dell'Utri for money laundering.
(2) All Iberian 1: 23 billion lira (€11.9 million) bribe to Bettino Craxi via an offshore bank account code-named All Iberian.
(3) Mediaset trial 2: on a personal tax evasion of €7.3 million committed in 1994–98 through illicit trade of movie rights between secret fictive companies
(4) Pedophilia: "Silvio Berlusconi is to go on trial on 6 April, charged with paying an underage prostitute and then trying to cover up the alleged offence by abusing his position as Italy's prime minister. ( John Hooper : Guardian : Tuesday 15 February 2011)

So whilst, as reported by Unian,

"U.S. Vice President Joe Biden said that President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko and Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk have made important progress in the fight against corruption." (Unian : 19.09.2015) (my emphasis),

Putin and Berlusconi are publicly displaying, and reinforcing, the Mafia-like criminality of Putin's regime.

As Vice-President Joe Biden stated in his address at the Brookings Institute (30 May, 2015),

"So long as Ukraine leaders keep faith with the project of reform, the U.S. will continue to stand with them.” (UA Position : 30 May, 2015) (my emphasis)

Petro Poroshenko, speaking at the recent YES (Yalta European Strategy) Conference in Kiev, proposed that,

"Russia [..] be stripped of its UN Security Council veto, calling the country a “challenge to the democratic world” with “deadly new imperial ambitions”.(Matthew Day : The Telegraph : 11 Sep 2015) (my emphasis)

This "challenge to the democratic world " of Putin is best illustrated by his current Syrian gambit, as reported by Ivan Nechepurenko (right) of the Moscow Times.

 "The recent flood of media reports claiming that Russia is boosting its military presence in Syria has detracted international attention from the Ukraine conflict in what analysts say is likely a deliberate ploy on Moscow's part.
.......
“Syria is a bigger problem for the West, so Russia can use the uproar about it to camouflage what is happening in Ukraine,” said Dmitry Oreshkin, an independent political analyst. ( Moscow Times : Sep. 15 2015) (my emphasis)

What Putin is particularly aiming to camouflage in the rebel held territory of eastern Ukraine is, as outlined by the Deputy Head of the [Ukrainian] Presidential Administration Kostiantyn Yeliseyev (right),

"Ukraine has held consultations with the German side today to determine what measures should be taken to prevent militants from holding elections [in occupied eastern Ukraine]

...
"We hope that these messages and signals will finally reach the corresponding capital [Moscow], and these "elections" will be canceled, otherwise they will have unpredictable and negative implications for the entire process," Yeliseyev said." (UNIAN : 18.09.2015) (my emphasis)

What is even more disconcerting is that the real aim of Putin's proxies in eastern Ukraine is to,

"Despite [opposite] claims, the leaders of DPR and LPR want to hold [local] elections at the same time with the rest of Ukraine, that is on October 25, in order to obtain legitimate authority over the whole of Donbas, not just a small part of it, which is now under their control, - in case of reintegration [of the temporarily occupied areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions],"- the source has told the publication." (UNIAN : 05.08.2015) (my emphasis)

Putin is now trying to stoke the fires of disparate groups of 'separatists' throughout the EU and the US.

As Alec Luhn reports,

"The Russian government has helped fund a conference in Moscow to bring together separatists from the United States and eastern Ukraine, despite cracking down on its own dissidents.

...

Among international participants were representatives of Sinn Féin, the Catalan Solidarity for Independence party and Italy’s European Communitarian party Millennium, as well as separatist groups from Hawaii and Puerto Rico and the US-based radical black power Uhuru Movement." (The Guardian : Sunday 20 September 2015) (my emphasis)

This conference was simply to function as a 'legitimization' of the demands of Putin over control of eastern Ukraine, as voiced by his rebel proxies.

While Putin is subsidizing these disparate extreme left-wing groups in the EU and the US, the Russian people are having to tighten their belts even further as the cost of Putin's war with Ukraine, and his annexation of Ukrainian Crimea, bears down upon them.

As  Anna Andrianova (left) reports,

"A slump in Russian consumption showed no letup last month while a drop in investment stretched into the longest in two decades, highlighting the toll on the economy from lower oil prices and the latest wave of ruble depreciation.

Real wages declined 9.8 percent from a year earlier after a 9.2 percent drop in July, the Federal Statistics Service in Moscow said Thursday. Retail sales tumbled 9.1 percent on an annual basis, matching a revised 9.1 percent plunge a month earlier." (Bloomberg Business : September 17, 2015) (my emphasis)

 And whilst Putin's 'Mafia' cronies and his 'siloviki' are lining their pockets, whilst the ordinary Russian citizen is having to bear all the costs of his 'imperialist dreams of Novorossiya',

Kalyeena Makortoff (right) reports that,

"The conflict in eastern Ukraine hasn't hurt the country's reputation as the breadbasket of Europe, a Ukraine minister told CNBC on Tuesday.

 Oleksiy Pavlenko, the Ukrainian Minister of Agriculture and Food, said agricultural exports were still thriving despite tensions between pro-Russian separatists and Ukrainian troops surrounding key farming land in Donetsk and Luhansk." (CNBC : Tuesday, 15 Sep 2015) (my emphasis)

 

Yet, while Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatseniuk is predicting that Russia will,

"...impose a full embargo on Ukrainian agricultural exports in 2016 when the free trade zone agreement with the EU comes into force..." (Interfax Ukraine : 21.08.2015),

Dmitry Medvedev was skeptical about the "agreement with Ukraine and the EU on free trade zone agreement issues by the end of the year." (ibid Interfax Ukraine)

This was, however, in August of this year, and Medvedev may have been banking on the fact that the Czech Republic may veto the Ukraine-EU Free Trade Agreement.

Unfortunately for Medvedev,

"The lower house of Czech parliament passed the Association Agreement between the European Union and Ukraine at its session shortly before midnight on Thursday (17 Sept., 2015), after months of protraction and despite strong criticism of the opposition Communist Party (KSČM)." (Prague Post : 18 September 2015) (my emphasis)

President Miloš Zeman of the Czech Republic, a staunch supporter of Putin, is now legally bound to ratify it.

Putin has now put on, what Anna Nemtsova (left) describes as, "Putin's Pre-UN Charm Offensive"

She is, however, rather dubious whether this 'charm offensive' is fake, or whether it signifies some sort of breakthrough between Putin and the West.

As she states,

"Is Russian President Vladimir Putin launching a charm offensive that promises real breakthroughs, or just repackaging long-held objectives?" (The Daily Beast : 21.09.15)

Stanislav Belkovsky, a former adviser to the Kremlin, is of the opinion that,

"“Coming to the UN, Putin seeks the West’s appreciation for his efforts to fight against the Islamic State,” says Belkovsky. 
“He dreams of meeting with Obama—Putin secretly adores Obama—and for the sake of that meeting, he temporarily freezes the conflict in Eastern Ukraine. But if the UN members mistreat him, which is a very likely, the conflict will burn again.” (ibid Anna Nemtsova) (my emphasis)

These speculations are just that, 'speculations'. 

That Putin supposedly 'dreams' of meeting President Obama simply does not ring true, when considering that he shared a stolen 240 year-old bottle of wine with Berlusconi, the Mafia-linked criminal and sexual predator, but a few days ago in annexed Ukrainian Crimea.

As the old saying goes, 

"If wishes were horses, Beggars would ride."

(to be continued)

Will Putin's Syrian gambit succeed?

At the 12th Yalta European Strategy conference, held in Kiev during the weekend of the 12th and 13th September, Carl Bildt  (left) stated that,

...“we (the EU) just gave another 86 billion euros to Greece! We must support Ukraine — it will take a lot — but if we do it, it will be a shining example.” (John Llyod (right) :Reuters : September 14, 2015) (my emphasis)

Radek Sikorski (left) of Poland also stated at this conference that,

“I don’t think the EU is serious about its eastern strategy. We must tell (Russian President Vladimir) Putin he cannot win — and if he moves further into Ukraine, we will deliver arms.” (ibid John Llyod) (my emphasis)

More significantly,

"Strobe Talbott (right), former U.S. deputy secretary of state and now head of the Brookings Institution, said he believed that, on the Russian side, “the cease fire is not an attempt to get peace, but to lull the west — perhaps especially Paris — into dropping its guard.”

President Francois Hollande of France, a guarantor with Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel, of the truce, is keenest that the Western sanctions against Russia be lifted, citing observance of the ceasefire." (ibid John Llyod) (my emphasis)

To the current ceasefire in eastern Ukraine, that Putin is using to lull the west into "dropping its guard" over his intentions in Ukraine, we can now add his build-up of Russian military forces and equipment in Syria, together with the 'refugee crisis' now taking place in the EU.

This build-up of Putin's military forces in Syria is coinciding with the building of a huge military base near the Ukrainian border.

As Anton Zverev reports,

"Russia has started to build a huge military base housing ammunition depots and barracks for several thousand soldiers near the Ukrainian border, a project that suggests the Kremlin is digging in for a prolonged stand-off with Kiev." (Reuters : Wed Sep 9, 2015) (my emphasis)

Similarly, Ivan Nechepurenko (right) of the Moscow Times reports that,

"The recent flood of media reports claiming that Russia is boosting its military presence in Syria has detracted international attention from the Ukraine conflict in what analysts say is likely a deliberate ploy on Moscow's part.
.......
“Syria is a bigger problem for the West, so Russia can use the uproar about it to camouflage what is happening in Ukraine,” said Dmitry Oreshkin, an independent political analyst. ( Moscow Times : Sep. 15 2015) (my emphasis)

Putin may be patting himself on the back that the Syrian refugees, and ISIS in Syria, have allowed him to divert the gaze of the international community away from his war with Ukraine.

Indeed, so much so that he believes that Angela Merkel and Francoise Hollande will,

"..... [i]f something is not implemented [in the upcoming meeting of the Normandy Four] then it is clear the leaders would agree on some extension," Ushakov told reporters." (Denis Dyomkin : Reuters : Fri Sep 11, 2015) (my emphasis)

Unfortunately for Putin, NATO has NOT taken its eye off the Ukrainian ball.

As reported by Mark MacKinnon,

"Canadian troops arrive in Ukraine to train soldiers fighting separatists."

...[at the beginning of NATO's] Operation Unifier, the Canadian military’s mission to help train Ukrainian army units for war against the Russian-backed separatists who control swaths of eastern Ukraine.....

The 200 Canadians from the 1st Battalion of the Petawawa, Ont.-based Royal Canadian Regiment who formally began their mission on Monday, will initially work with the 30th Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian army teaching tactics, marksmanship and combat medicine, as well as how to deal with improvised explosive devices..(The Globe and Mail : Monday, Sep. 14, 2015)

Furthermore, Ryan Maass informs us that,

"U.S. military assistance to Ukraine expands to include training of active-duty troops in addition to the country's recently formed national guard."  

A new rotation of troops from the 173rd Airborne Brigade are set to train up to five battalions of Ukrainian soldiers, as the conflict with Russian-backed rebels in Eastern Ukraine continues. The paratroops are no strangers to the region, rotating soldiers into the country for the program known as Fearless Guardian since April. The program's goal is to beef up and reform the Ukrainian military." (UPI : Sept. 15, 2015) (my emphasis) 

On the Ukrainian economic front, Shawn Donnan in Washington and Roman Olearchy tell us that,

“There is the prospect for additional financing from the United States and from other sources as well,” a senior US Treasury official told the Financial Times. “For Ukraine to be successful in this environment it will require support from the United States, from Europe, from other bilateral and multilateral sources.” (Financial Times : September 15, 2015) (my emphasis)

Added to which,

"The World Bank’s Board of Executive Directors today approved a US$500 million IBRD operation to finance the Second Programmatic Financial Sector Development Policy Loan in Ukraine. This new financing supports a number of high-priority reform measures in the banking sector in response to the financial crisis in Ukraine." (The World Bank : September 15, 2015)

These military and economic developments in Ukraine comes just as Putin has been forced to,

"... [confirm] the primacy of Nord Stream—a natural gas pipeline through the Baltic Sea—in its efforts to replace Ukrainian transit routes for gas exports to Europe, diminishing the likely role to be played by its southern counterpart, Turkish Stream".

.........

"In the energy world, all eyes were on Putin to see whether he and his Chinese hosts would announce just how they planned to implement either the giant $55 billion program concluded in May 2014 to bring Russian gas to China by the eastern route from Skovorodino to northwest China or—Russia’s preference—a pipeline through the Altai pass into eastern China, provisionally costing $18.5 billion.

The silence surrounding these projects almost certainly indicates that Russia and China have not only still to reach an agreement on which line should be developed first, but on such basic issues—assumed to have been settled sixteen months ago—as the price of the gas, the timing of the project implementation and, above all, whether China should have a role in Russian upstream development as a quid pro quo for lending Russia some $25 billion for project development.(John M. Roberts (right): Atlantic Council : September 15, 2015) (my emphasis)

As John Roberts (ibid) says, "Russia's Gazprom [is] Unable to Do Without Europe"

This underscores Ulrich Speck's contention that,

 

"In Ukraine, the Kremlin's overarching goal has been to bring that country back under Russian control. But as Ukraine has become a stronger state that is integrating itself with the West, the likelihood for the Kremlin's success is getting smaller every day.

 

In order to distract from this strategic defeat, Russian President Vladimir Putin has increased his military engagement in Syria. " (Real Clear World : September 15, 2015)

And lest we forget,

(to be continued)