Will Putin's Syrian gambit succeed?

At the 12th Yalta European Strategy conference, held in Kiev during the weekend of the 12th and 13th September, Carl Bildt  (left) stated that,

...“we (the EU) just gave another 86 billion euros to Greece! We must support Ukraine — it will take a lot — but if we do it, it will be a shining example.” (John Llyod (right) :Reuters : September 14, 2015) (my emphasis)

Radek Sikorski (left) of Poland also stated at this conference that,

“I don’t think the EU is serious about its eastern strategy. We must tell (Russian President Vladimir) Putin he cannot win — and if he moves further into Ukraine, we will deliver arms.” (ibid John Llyod) (my emphasis)

More significantly,

"Strobe Talbott (right), former U.S. deputy secretary of state and now head of the Brookings Institution, said he believed that, on the Russian side, “the cease fire is not an attempt to get peace, but to lull the west — perhaps especially Paris — into dropping its guard.”

President Francois Hollande of France, a guarantor with Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel, of the truce, is keenest that the Western sanctions against Russia be lifted, citing observance of the ceasefire." (ibid John Llyod) (my emphasis)

To the current ceasefire in eastern Ukraine, that Putin is using to lull the west into "dropping its guard" over his intentions in Ukraine, we can now add his build-up of Russian military forces and equipment in Syria, together with the 'refugee crisis' now taking place in the EU.

This build-up of Putin's military forces in Syria is coinciding with the building of a huge military base near the Ukrainian border.

As Anton Zverev reports,

"Russia has started to build a huge military base housing ammunition depots and barracks for several thousand soldiers near the Ukrainian border, a project that suggests the Kremlin is digging in for a prolonged stand-off with Kiev." (Reuters : Wed Sep 9, 2015) (my emphasis)

Similarly, Ivan Nechepurenko (right) of the Moscow Times reports that,

"The recent flood of media reports claiming that Russia is boosting its military presence in Syria has detracted international attention from the Ukraine conflict in what analysts say is likely a deliberate ploy on Moscow's part.
.......
“Syria is a bigger problem for the West, so Russia can use the uproar about it to camouflage what is happening in Ukraine,” said Dmitry Oreshkin, an independent political analyst. ( Moscow Times : Sep. 15 2015) (my emphasis)

Putin may be patting himself on the back that the Syrian refugees, and ISIS in Syria, have allowed him to divert the gaze of the international community away from his war with Ukraine.

Indeed, so much so that he believes that Angela Merkel and Francoise Hollande will,

"..... [i]f something is not implemented [in the upcoming meeting of the Normandy Four] then it is clear the leaders would agree on some extension," Ushakov told reporters." (Denis Dyomkin : Reuters : Fri Sep 11, 2015) (my emphasis)

Unfortunately for Putin, NATO has NOT taken its eye off the Ukrainian ball.

As reported by Mark MacKinnon,

"Canadian troops arrive in Ukraine to train soldiers fighting separatists."

...[at the beginning of NATO's] Operation Unifier, the Canadian military’s mission to help train Ukrainian army units for war against the Russian-backed separatists who control swaths of eastern Ukraine.....

The 200 Canadians from the 1st Battalion of the Petawawa, Ont.-based Royal Canadian Regiment who formally began their mission on Monday, will initially work with the 30th Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian army teaching tactics, marksmanship and combat medicine, as well as how to deal with improvised explosive devices..(The Globe and Mail : Monday, Sep. 14, 2015)

Furthermore, Ryan Maass informs us that,

"U.S. military assistance to Ukraine expands to include training of active-duty troops in addition to the country's recently formed national guard."  

A new rotation of troops from the 173rd Airborne Brigade are set to train up to five battalions of Ukrainian soldiers, as the conflict with Russian-backed rebels in Eastern Ukraine continues. The paratroops are no strangers to the region, rotating soldiers into the country for the program known as Fearless Guardian since April. The program's goal is to beef up and reform the Ukrainian military." (UPI : Sept. 15, 2015) (my emphasis) 

On the Ukrainian economic front, Shawn Donnan in Washington and Roman Olearchy tell us that,

“There is the prospect for additional financing from the United States and from other sources as well,” a senior US Treasury official told the Financial Times. “For Ukraine to be successful in this environment it will require support from the United States, from Europe, from other bilateral and multilateral sources.” (Financial Times : September 15, 2015) (my emphasis)

Added to which,

"The World Bank’s Board of Executive Directors today approved a US$500 million IBRD operation to finance the Second Programmatic Financial Sector Development Policy Loan in Ukraine. This new financing supports a number of high-priority reform measures in the banking sector in response to the financial crisis in Ukraine." (The World Bank : September 15, 2015)

These military and economic developments in Ukraine comes just as Putin has been forced to,

"... [confirm] the primacy of Nord Stream—a natural gas pipeline through the Baltic Sea—in its efforts to replace Ukrainian transit routes for gas exports to Europe, diminishing the likely role to be played by its southern counterpart, Turkish Stream".

.........

"In the energy world, all eyes were on Putin to see whether he and his Chinese hosts would announce just how they planned to implement either the giant $55 billion program concluded in May 2014 to bring Russian gas to China by the eastern route from Skovorodino to northwest China or—Russia’s preference—a pipeline through the Altai pass into eastern China, provisionally costing $18.5 billion.

The silence surrounding these projects almost certainly indicates that Russia and China have not only still to reach an agreement on which line should be developed first, but on such basic issues—assumed to have been settled sixteen months ago—as the price of the gas, the timing of the project implementation and, above all, whether China should have a role in Russian upstream development as a quid pro quo for lending Russia some $25 billion for project development.(John M. Roberts (right): Atlantic Council : September 15, 2015) (my emphasis)

As John Roberts (ibid) says, "Russia's Gazprom [is] Unable to Do Without Europe"

This underscores Ulrich Speck's contention that,

 

"In Ukraine, the Kremlin's overarching goal has been to bring that country back under Russian control. But as Ukraine has become a stronger state that is integrating itself with the West, the likelihood for the Kremlin's success is getting smaller every day.

 

In order to distract from this strategic defeat, Russian President Vladimir Putin has increased his military engagement in Syria. " (Real Clear World : September 15, 2015)

And lest we forget,

(to be continued)