Putin, Syria, and Ukraine. Putin's dangerous gamble.

In the three-way Skype call between Putin, Merkel, and Hollande on Sat Aug 29, 2015, Putin re-iterated,

"...Russia's calls for direct dialogue between Kiev and rebel representatives and constitutional reforms agreed with the rebel regions." (John Irish, Jason Bush and Paul Carrel : Reuters : Sat Aug 29, 2015) (my emphasis)

 Since then, events that initially seemed far removed from the war between Putin and Ukraine have given Putin the 'bargaining chips' that he so desperately needs to help extricate himself from the corner into which he has painted himself over the implementation of the Minsk2 protocols.

At the same time, both Merkel and Hollande now see a way out of the EU sanctions against Putin that is causing so much pain in their own economies. 

The Syrian refugee crisis that has erupted in the EU has been further exacerbated by Putin for, among other reasons, to give added impetus to his stand that there must be ,"direct dialogue between Kiev and rebel representatives", a demand that he knows will rightly be rejected by Poroshenko. 

As Leonid Bershidsky (left) writes,

"Persistent reports in recent days indicate that Russia is increasingly involved in the war in Syria. The involvement is stealthy and apparently not as heavy as in eastern Ukraine, but it creates interesting prospects for U.S.-Russian relations, as well as for the development of both the Syrian and the Ukrainian conflicts." (Bloomberg View : Sept 8, 2015) (my emphasis) (cf. also The Washington Times : Tuesday, September 8, 2015)

Bershidsky further points out that,
 
"...commentators describe the putative Russian intervention as a Putin gamble. The Russian leader travels to the United Nations General Assembly next week, and there, they speculate, he may offer the U.S. a deal: Russian aid to the anti-ISIS effort in Syria in exchange for concessions on Ukraine and an end to sanctions." (ibid Leonid Bershidsky) (my emphasis)

Already we have Hollande calling for an end to the EU sanctions against Putin.

As reported last Monday by BBC News,

"French President Francois Hollande has said that following recent ceasefire progress in Ukraine he hopes to see the end of sanctions against Russia. 

 

Mr Hollande has proposed a meeting of the leaders of France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine in Paris later this month on the situation in Ukraine

He said there had been progress in recent weeks in implementing a troubled February peace deal.." (BBC News : 7 September 2015) (my emphasis)

This sudden call of Hollande for the lifting of EU sanctions against Putin and his 'siloviki' signifies that he is now more than willing to cave in to Putin's demands that his rebel-proxies in eastern Ukraine must be invited to the 'Normandy Four' diplomatic table.

Already we have "business as usual" between Putin and many top EU companies.

As reported by Andrew Rettman, (left)

"German firm BASF, last weekend, renewed an asset-swap deal with Russia’s Gazprom which is to see them build a second leg of the Nord Stream gas pipeline to Germany.

Austrian firm OMV, British-Dutch firm Shell, and France’s Engie are also to take part.

The BASF deal was initially suspended due to Russia’s annexation of Crimea

Judy Dempsey, an analyst at the Carnegie Europe think tank, said its renewal is “just like the old days, before the European Union imposed sanctions”.(EU Observer :  8. Sep., 2015) (my emphasis) 

More significantly, however, what is the betting that President Obama, who seems to have put nearly all his 'foreign policy' eggs into his Middle Eastern basket, will simply acquiesce to the demands of Putin?

That Putin will demand an end to sanctions is directly related to the fact that,

"Ukrainian foreign minister, Pavlo Klimkin (right), told press in Brussels on Monday (7 September):

“The first of January is the final date [for entry into life] of the pact.

It’s an ultimate decision taken jointly by Ukraine and by the European Commission”.

“There’s no chance to influence this by the Russian side or any other side … there’s no chance of changing the agreement”.(ibid Andrew Rettman) (my emphasis)

Putin desperately wants to obstruct the implementation of this economic pact between the EU and Ukraine, that comes into effect in less than 4 months from now.

And he will use his 'Syrian card' when grandstanding in front of the UN Assembly at the end of this month as the 'ace up his sleeve' to try and achieve this end.

As Kirill Martynov (left) wrote in Novaya Gazeta,

"Moscow, which, unlike Washington, doesn't have to deal with resistance from public opinion and Congress, is to undertake the destruction of ISIS," Kirill Martynov wrote in Novaya Gazeta.

"If the plan succeeds even partially, the Russian authorities will get all they could ever dream of -- the normalization of relations with the West, the prospect of negotiations on the status of Crimea and, at the same time, a demonstration of Russian power throughout the world .... " (ibid Leonid Bershidsky) (my emphasis)

But will this really happen? Or does it simply illustrate, as  Yevgeni Kiselyoev (right), a former top TV anchor in Moscow who now lives in Kiev, wrote in a blog post,

"I have no doubt that military intervention in Syria would be an adventure that would put Russia in mortal danger," (ibid Leonid Bershidsky) (my emphasis)

If Yevgeni Kiselyoev is correct then this would mean that Putin has lost his 'gamble', even before he has played what he regards as his 'Syrian Ace up his sleeve'.

Is this 'Syrian adventure' of Putin yet another indication of his desperation in trying to extricate himself from his crumbling 'Ukrainian adventure'? 

Or does it indicate that, like Stalin in his last days, his growing isolation within the Kremlin is now getting the better of him.

(to be continued)