Putin the dangerous gambler .......

In my very first blog entry (Tuesday 10 June, 2014) I wrote that

"One of the hallmarks in the field of espionage is training in the ability of concealment. Indeed, the devious art of concealment can be said to be somewhat central to the persona of a spy. I might add that this art is also practiced by politicians, among others. It is the pivot upon which the world of diplomacy rotates.

That Putin is a rather poor practitioner of this art could be explained by the fact that during his years in the KGB he only obtained the somewhat lowly rank of lieutenant colonel. (подполковник)  

Thus, when he first became President of Russia ( 7 May, 2000) and, a few days later, addressed a meeting of 800 of the FSB (formerly the KGB) top brass at the Dhzerzinsky Club, he smilingly and proudly pronounced,

"The FSB wanted to return to power. I am pleased to announce that we have succeeded!"

He made public what, in the world of espionage, should have been concealed. No doubt many officers in the audience winced inwardly at this [PUBLIC] pronouncement.

Jim Hoagland (left) now (7 August, 2015) rather interestingly informs us that,

"..... U.S. and European intelligence operatives who had studied the Russian president’s 17-year KGB career. 

They too traced a portrait of Putin as a failed spy who was being squeezed out of the KGB when the Soviet system collapsed and political connections suddenly offered him a route to power.

“He was seen in the system as a risk-taker who had little understanding of the consequences of failure,” one said. “The KGB of that era was not keen on risk.”

That analysis of Putin, rather than one of him as a master spy, fits more closely with what he has done as Kremlin boss. Putin today displays an open contempt for Russian public opinions and an uncaring disregard for the economy-damaging sanctions and international disapproval that his Ukraine adventure has provoked, traits that befit a drunken gambler." (Washington Post : 7 August, 2015) (my emphasis)

This rather throws into perspective Putin's current attempt, like a drunken gambler, to create a new bargaining piece for himself at the proposed upcoming meeting between Merkel, Hollande, Poroshenko, and himself, by sending troops and military equipment to bolster his ally in Syria, Bashar Al Assad.

As Rob Crilly (left) reports,

"Russia is building a military base in Syrian president Bashar al-Assad’s heartland, according to American intelligence officials, in the clearest indication yet of deepening Russian support for the embattled regime of Bashar al-Assad...." (The Telegraph : 05 Sep 2015)

Added to which, this will also deflect the gaze of the UN Assembly from the Malaysian Airline MH17 tragedy and the upcoming sentencing of Ukrainian Pilot Nadiya Savchenko when,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin will make a speech at the jubilee session of the UN General Assembly in New York. The high-level session with the participation of heads of states, government leaders and foreign ministers will take place from September 28 till October 3, RIA Novosti reports." (Pravda : 01.09.201)

As the lawyer representing Nadiya Savchenko (left) tweeted,

" ...... Savchenko will not be convicted prior to the visit of Russian President Putin to the UN and before a possible UN General Assembly’s decision on the establishment of the tribunal to try the people responsible for the crash of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17.  (Censor . net : 28.08.15)

 Putin is aware that he can now pressurize President Obama with his support for Bashar Al Assad into trying to force Poroshenko to deal directly with his rebel-proxies in eastern Ukraine. 

As a direct hint of this strategy of Putin, a sudden 'leadership shakeup' has occurred amongst Putin's rebel-proxies in Donetsk over Ukraine's 'Special Status' drive for the region.

"Dissent within militant ranks. The parliamentary speaker in occupied Donetsk has been removed from office, in what appears to be a local power struggle within Moscow's proxy forces. That's according to several Ukrainian media outlets and western journalists. Andrei Purgin, seen here, was arrested, then replaced by Denis Pushilin, another leading figure within insurgent ranks." (Ukraine Today : Sep. 5, 2015) (my emphasis)

It almost goes without saying that Putin will categorically demand that his rebel-proxies be recognized as representatives of the eastern Ukraine regions controlled by them and his Russian soldiers, a recognition that Poroshenko, quite rightly, simply will not make. 

Thus, even though,

"Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said Saturday that the Western-backed truce signed in Minsk in February had been respected this week for the first time, despite pro-Russian rebels claiming a civilian had been killed" (AFP : 5 Sept., 2015) (my emphasis),

it is to be expected that upon his return from 'grandstanding' at the UN, Putin will simply let his rebel-proxies and Russian soldiers loose upon the Ukrainian army.

 Putin simply has nowhere to turn to.

Even the Chinese, at the Eastern Economic Forum in the Pacific Port of Vladivostok on Friday (Sept. 4, 2015) , do not seem too enamored with his ideas about him setting up,

".... favorable business conditions and state support to Asian and domestic investors willing to come to Russia's most remote land ...." (Katya Golubkova : Reuters : Sat Sep 5, 2015)

It is no wonder that,

"[Chinese Vice Premier Wang Yang]'s address to the forum on Saturday was short and he left immediately afterwards, in the middle of the session, followed by Chinese officials, including Wang Yilin, chairman of the board at China National Petroleum Corporation." (ibid Katya Golubkova) (my emphasis)

We now wait to see just what reception he will receive when he addresses the UN Assembly.

(to be continued)