Denis Dyomkin reports that,
"The leaders of
Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France will agree to roll-over a peace deal
for eastern Ukraine if it is not fully implemented this year as
intended, the Kremlin's top foreign policy aide, Yuri Ushakov, (right) said on
Friday.
The so-called Minsk agreements state that various provisions must be implemented before the end of this year. Ushakov said the most important thing was to get them in place as soon as possible and within the existing framework.
"If something is not implemented then it is clear the leaders would agree on some extension," Ushakov told reporters." (Reuters :
Russia pull out thousands of its troops after warning of Putin's "deadly new imperial ambitions".
...
Mr Poroshenko's stark warning comes ahead of joint meeting with Russian, German and French leaders next month. ....He said:
"A full withdrawal of all occupation forces from Ukrainian territory and closing the Ukrainian-Russian border: these are the two main preconditions for peace and stability in the Donbass." (Oli Smith : Express : Fri, Sep 11, 2015) (my emphasis)
The question that now raises its head is:
(1) "Given that Putin will be clamoring for an extension of the implementation of the Minsk2 protocols, and that
If we are to believe the Kremlin's top foreign policy aide, Yuri Ushakov (cf. above), then neither Merkel, nor Hollande, will be pressing Putin to fully implement Minsk2 by the 'deadline' date.
Is this pre-emptive extension of the full implementation of Minsk2 really the agreement that Putin, Merkel, and Hollande came to during their most recent 90 minute Skype Meeting on September 9?
Furthermore, as
"Russia has started
to build a huge military base housing ammunition depots and barracks for
several thousand soldiers near the Ukrainian border, a project that
suggests the Kremlin is digging in for a prolonged stand-off with Kiev." (Reuters :
As RFE/RL also informs us,
"Speaking to RFE/RL on September 10, a NATO spokesman said that, "Overall, NATO remains concerned about Russia's military buildup near Ukraine's borders and its continued attempts to destabilize Ukraine." (RFE/RL : 10.09.2015) (my emphasis)
Against this backdrop of the military buildup of Putin's army near the Ukrainian border, Putin is to address the UN General Assembly on 28th September.
Julian Borger, reporting on Wednesday 29 July 2015, speculated that,
"It promises to be a rhetorical battle of the titans, on a scale not seen for at least a decade.
On a Monday morning in late September, Barack
Obama, Vladimir Putin,
Hassan Rouhani, Xi Jinping and François Hollande are all scheduled to
deliver speeches at the United Nations in New York, setting out their
visions of the geopolitical landscape at the outset of a highly
uncertain era." (Guardian : Wednesday 29 July 2015) (my emphasis)
,
"President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia could have an audience with Pope Francis on the sidelines of the development summit meeting here this month — but only, the Vatican envoy to the United Nations said Wednesday, if Mr. Putin gets here in time.
The war between Ukraine and Putin cannot be removed from the backdrop of this "rhetorical battle of the Titans" at the UN, as Julian Borger so aptly describes it.
What happens in Ukraine between now and that expected "battle of the Titans" at the UN will either put the final nail in the coffin of Minsk2 or attempt to breathe life back into it.
(to be continued)
The so-called Minsk agreements state that various provisions must be implemented before the end of this year. Ushakov said the most important thing was to get them in place as soon as possible and within the existing framework.
"If something is not implemented then it is clear the leaders would agree on some extension," Ushakov told reporters." (Reuters :
Russia pull out thousands of its troops after warning of Putin's "deadly new imperial ambitions"....
Mr Poroshenko's stark warning comes ahead of joint meeting with Russian, German and French leaders next month. ....He said:
"A full withdrawal of all occupation forces from Ukrainian territory and closing the Ukrainian-Russian border: these are the two main preconditions for peace and stability in the Donbass." (Oli Smith : Express : Fri, Sep 11, 2015) (my emphasis)
The question that now raises its head is:
(1) "Given that Putin will be clamoring for an extension of the implementation of the Minsk2 protocols, and that
(2) Poroshenko is calling for exactly the opposite viz. that ALL of the Minsk2 protocols be implemented by the specified deadline of 31st December, 2015,
what, really, will be the purpose of their proposed October 2 meeting in Paris?"
If we are to believe the Kremlin's top foreign policy aide, Yuri Ushakov (cf. above), then neither Merkel, nor Hollande, will be pressing Putin to fully implement Minsk2 by the 'deadline' date.
Is this pre-emptive extension of the full implementation of Minsk2 really the agreement that Putin, Merkel, and Hollande came to during their most recent 90 minute Skype Meeting on September 9?
As reported by the Kremlin,
"Particular
attention (during this Skype telephone meeting) was given to implementing the political provisions
of the Minsk
Agreements, first and foremost carrying out a constitutional reform
in Ukraine,
including legislating special status for the Donbass regions, as well
as organising local elections and adopting a law on amnesty. In this
regard,
Vladimir Putin once again stressed the need to establish a full-fledged,
direct
dialogue between the Kiev authorities and representatives from southeast
Ukraine." (Kremlin.ru : September 9, 2015) (my emphasis)
Nowhere was the withdrawal of Putin's Russian forces mentioned, which indicates that this will simply NOT be implemented according to Minsk2.
Furthermore, as
"Russia has started
to build a huge military base housing ammunition depots and barracks for
several thousand soldiers near the Ukrainian border, a project that
suggests the Kremlin is digging in for a prolonged stand-off with Kiev." (Reuters : As RFE/RL also informs us,
"Speaking to RFE/RL on September 10, a NATO spokesman said that, "Overall, NATO remains concerned about Russia's military buildup near Ukraine's borders and its continued attempts to destabilize Ukraine." (RFE/RL : 10.09.2015) (my emphasis)
Against this backdrop of the military buildup of Putin's army near the Ukrainian border, Putin is to address the UN General Assembly on 28th September.
Julian Borger, reporting on Wednesday 29 July 2015, speculated that,
"It promises to be a rhetorical battle of the titans, on a scale not seen for at least a decade.
On a Monday morning in late September, Barack
Obama, Vladimir Putin,
Hassan Rouhani, Xi Jinping and François Hollande are all scheduled to
deliver speeches at the United Nations in New York, setting out their
visions of the geopolitical landscape at the outset of a highly
uncertain era." (Guardian : Wednesday 29 July 2015) (my emphasis),
"President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia could have an audience with Pope Francis on the sidelines of the development summit meeting here this month — but only, the Vatican envoy to the United Nations said Wednesday, if Mr. Putin gets here in time.
According
to diplomatic protocol, the pope is to hold a bilateral meeting with
the country that presides over the United Nations Security Council and
only with its head of state. In September, that is Russia. Hence, Mr.
Putin." (New York Times : Sept. 9, 2015) (my emphasis)
What happens in Ukraine between now and that expected "battle of the Titans" at the UN will either put the final nail in the coffin of Minsk2 or attempt to breathe life back into it.
(to be continued)
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