Putin's strategy against Ukraine is failing.

A rather interesting article appeared on the BBC News website this morning that made me chuckle.

It's conclusion were that,

"The failure of pollsters to forecast the outcome of the general election was largely due to "unrepresentative" poll samples, an inquiry has found.
...
An interim report by the panel of academics and statisticians found that the way in which people were recruited to take part - asking about their likely voting intentions - had resulted in "systematic over-representation of Labour voters and under-representation of Conservative voters"." (BBC News : 19 January,2016) (my emphasis)

Which brings me to the polling of the Levada Centre in Moscow, that repeatedly obtains near astronomical ratings, always hovering around the 80% - 85% mark, for Putin.

Why, only in October of last year,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin’s public approval rating rose to 88 percent in October from 84 percent the previous month, according to the Levada Center." (Scott Rose : Bloomberg Business : October 28, 2015) (my emphasis)

What is rather disturbing is that many pundits in the West unquestioningly accept these polling results of the Levada Centre. 

It 'colours', so to speak, their perceptions of Putin actions towards Ukraine and, more importantly, assumes that the Russian people are 'four square' behind his actions in Ukraine.

 As Olga Irisova (right) explains,

"Today, the perception of Vladimir Putin in Europe is both overblown and distorted.
.....
This image of “Putin the hero” in Europe is promoted not just by Russian media outlets with a focus on foreign audiences, but also with the help of local media that is either “bewitched by him” or sponsored directly by the Kremlin." (New Eastern Europe : Monday, 04 January 2016) (my emphasis)

This is perhaps best illustrated by Putin's bankrolling of Marine Le Pen's 'Front Nationale', and her open admiration of him.

 

As recently reported by Peter Foster,

"A dossier of “Russian influence activity” seen by The Sunday Telegraph identified Russian influence operations running in France, the Netherlands, Hungary as well as Austria and the Czech Republic, which has been identified by Russian agents as an entry-point into the Schengen free movement zone." (The Telegraph : 16 Jan 2016) (my emphasis)

More sinister, however, is the fact that,

"Russian influence has also been detected in a referendum in the Netherlands next April over whether to block the EU’s closer relations with Ukraine. Sources said arguments deployed in support of the referendum “closely resembled” known Russian propaganda." (ibid Peter Foster) (my emphasis)

We now also have a further escalation of Putin beginning to pull out all the stops for an accelerated 'cyber attack on Ukraine, following the cyber attack on the electricity grid of Ukraine that left thousands of Ukrainians without electricity last month.

Now Boryspil, Kiev's major airport, has also come under 'cyber attack'.

"A cyber attack on Kyiv's main airport was launched from a server in Russia, Ukraine's military spokesman told Reuters on Monday, as the state-run Computer Emergency Response Team (CERT-UA) warned of the threat of further attacks.

Malware similar to that which attacked three Ukrainian power firms in late December was detected in a computer in the IT network of Kyiv's main airport, Boryspil, last week. The network includes the airport's air traffic control." (UT : Jan. 18, 2016) (my emphasis) (cf. also: Pavel Polityuk and Alessandra Prentice : Reuters)

These cyber attacks of Putin against Ukraine comes in the wake of the fact that,

"The impact of the economic crisis is now noticeable in everyday life in Russia. Many are now living below the poverty line. The number of people seeking help is rising. DW's Philipp Anft reports from Moscow. (DW : 17.01.2016) (my emphasis) 

 

Even Putin's 'glove puppet', Dmitry Medvedev, had to admit that,

"... the gravest result [of the current economic crisis in Russia] was the fall in real incomes. “Many people have become poorer,” he said. “And, the middle class has suffered. And, this is probably one of the most painful aftereffects of the last years.” (Daniel Schearf : VOA : January 13, 2016) (my emphasis)

Putin's 'cyber warfare' against Ukraine will not fill the bellies of the Russian people.

What will be interesting to see is whether the Levada Centre in Moscow will continue to to give Putin those sky-high ratings as the Russian people become more impoverished, thanks to his kleptocratic cabal 'feathering their own nest' at the expense of the people of Russia.

(to be continued) 

Is Putin heading for the abyss in 2016?

Fred Weir speculates that,

"It looks like the Kremlin is getting serious about resolving the ongoing Ukraine crisis....
.....

Experts say that suggests the Kremlin is tiring of the long stalemate over the war-torn Donbass region, and is readying for a concerted push to solve remaining issues and prompt an end to the Western sanctions that even Mr. Putin admits are "severely harming" Russia's economy." (CSM :January 15, 2016) (my emphasis)

The assumption of Fred Weir that sanctions are "severely harming" Russia's economy seems to rather ignore the fact that the price of oil, upon which the whole of the Russian economy is so dependent, continues along the slippery slope towards $20 per barrel.

As reported in The Week yesterday,

"...Oil dips below $30 a barrel for third day in a row – and is likely to go lower" (The Week : Jan 15, 2016)

This is having a severe impact on the Russian economy, as even Putin's glove puppet, Dmitry Medvedev, and Anton Siluanov, Putin's Economic Minster, both have to admit. (cf. also : Moscow Times)

As Olga Tanas, Anna Andrianova, and Ryan Chilcote explain,

"The renewed decline in oil prices is forcing Russia to extend an austerity drive that’s without precedent during President Vladimir Putin’s 16 years in power. The fiscal rigor, though, will go only so far....

.....

“Given that Putin’s military actions serve like an investment in his political standing at home, I do not think that much money will be saved here,” said Wolf-Fabian Hungerland, an economist at Berenberg Bank in Hamburg, Germany. “With every dollar less for a barrel of oil, the chances increase that the holes in the Russian budget can really not be covered anymore.” (Bloomberg Business : January 14, 2016) (my emphasis)

And as Darya Korsunskaya also reports,

"Russia must cut expenditure to cover what could be a more than $45 billion drop in revenues this year if the average oil price is $50 a barrel, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said on Wednesday." (Reuters (Business Insider) : Jan. 14, 2015) 

Already oil is diving towards a price of $20 per barrel.

Putin is "over an economic barrel", so to speak. 

It is therefore no wonder that Poroshenko is now vowing,

" ... to win back control of Crimea as well as the rebel-held land in the east of the country but says he needs help from the EU and the US.
 ........
"Ukraine's sovereignty must be restored over the occupied territories in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in 2016" he said, adding that: "The fight for Crimea's return remains a priority." ( Brendan Cole : International Business Times : January 15, 2016) (my emphasis)

If it were not enough that Putin now finds himself "over an economic barrel", his attempt to further hinder the export capabilities of Ukraine has also somewhat backfired.

As his propaganda mouthpiece, RT, crowed yesterday,

"It turns out that losing Russian exports and trade preferences isn’t the only problem Ukraine will face as the trade ban by Moscow comes into force. The transit of Ukrainian goods to Central Asia through Russia has also been halted." (RT : 14 Jan, 2016) (my emphasis)

Unfortunately, however, RT rather conspicuously failed to mention that,

"Ukraine has launched the first cargo train to China that will bypass Russia along a new "Silk Road" meant to counter the Kremlin's most stringent trade embargo on Kiev to date.

 

This is a historic event," Ukrainian Infrastructure Minister Andriy Pyvovarskiy wrote on Facebook.

"Now, Ukraine is not just a potential transit country between the East and West, but one that has finally realised its potential." (AFP (Times of India) : Jan 15, 2016) (my emphasis) (cf also: UT)

What is even more devastating for Putin about this new "Silk Road" is that it also involves Turkey, Putin's latest 'scapegoat' on his controlled Russian media.

"Major logistics companies from China, Kazakhstan, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Turkey signed late November a document on establishing a consortium for the transportation of goods from China to Europe, bypassing the Russian territory." (UT : Dec. 5, 2015) (my emphasis)


Notwithstanding these economic setbacks that now confronts Putin, we should always be mindful of the fact, as Ryan Faith explains,  that,

"A lot has been written about why Putin may have gotten involved in Ukraine's Donbass region following the Great Crimean Heist of 2014.

For starters, there's the slightly messianic vision of Putin as Protector of All Russians. He's been making increasingly louder noises about Moscow's responsibility to safeguard the various ethnic Russians scattered throughout the post-Soviet republics." (Vice News : December 31, 2015) (my emphasis)

Putin expressed this "messianic vision" during his New Year address to the Russian people.
 

To suggest, as does Fred Weir, that Putin is ready to scrap this "messianic vision" of his, even as the Russian economy crumbles around his feet, is to underestimate the tenacity with which he clings to power.

More importantly, however, any failure on his part that diminishes his stature in the eyes of the Russian people, and that may lead to his downfall, will bring to the surface the extensive catalogue of his criminal activities that was set in motion when he set up his criminal cabal in St. Petersburg between 1990 and 1998 with the proceeds of the millions he stole from the people of St. Petersburg. 

(to be continued)

Obama's gaffe .... Putin's gain?

Politicians are said to choose their words rather carefully, lest they give the 'wrong' impression that can lead to unforseen consequences.

In his final State of the Union address on Tuesday 12 January 2016, Obama 

• either made a mistake in referring to Ukraine as a Russian 'client' state,
• or he sent a signal to Putin that US policy regarding Putin's annexation of Crimea, and his current war with Ukraine, is a somewhat 'legitimate' reaction of Russia towards his Ukrainian 'client' state ', and into which he is pouring resources to 'prevent Ukraine from slipping away from Russia's orbit'!

""Even as their economy contracts, Russia is pouring resources in to prop up Ukraine and Syria -- client states they saw slipping away from their orbit," (Robert Coalson and Tetiana Iakubovych : RFERL : Thursday, January 14, 2016) (Obama's complete address can be found at : ABC News)

Now  Obama's chief speechwriter, Jon Favreau (right),explains that,

"The annual address to a joint session of the U.S. Congress is one of the U.S. president's most comprehensively prepared and vetted speeches." 

Furthermore,

"..[he]  told National Public Radio earlier in the day his office had been working on the speech since "around Thanksgiving."

"Once the new year came and went, there would be a frenzied couple of weeks writing and editing and rewriting, right up until the final speech and then practicing the speech on the last day," Favreau said." (ibid RFERL)

Now the day following Obama's Final State of the Union Address, he and Putin

" ..... spoke by telephone on Wednesday, discussing crises in Ukraine and Syria, the White House said.

"They spent a significant portion of their time discussing the need for the Russians to live up to the commitments that they made in Minsk -- to end their support for separatists that are destabilizing Ukraine right now," said White House spokesman Josh Earnest." (AFP (Yahoo News): 13 January, 2016) (my emphasis)

More significantly,

"Obama told Putin that a key next step in resolving the Ukrainian crisis was for all sides to agree on the modalities of local elections in the Donbas region of Ukraine, the White House said in a statement." (Roberta Rampton (right): Reuters : Wed Jan 13, 2016) (my emphasis)

In other words, all that Obama is saying is that clause 4 of the Minsk2 protocol should now be implemented. 

4. "On the first day after the pullout a dialogue is to start on modalities of conducting local elections in accordance with the Ukrainian legislation and the Law of Ukraine "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts," and also about the future of these districts based on the above-mentioned law. (Wikipedia) (my emphasis)

Recall, however, that Putin, in his recent Bild interview (January 5, 2015, in Sochi), is now demanding that,
 

"..changes to the Ukrainian constitution should be permanent, as is stipulated in the Minsk agreements."? (UNIAN : 11.01.2016) (my emphasis)

In his Bild interview, where he justifies his annexation of Crimea, he also,

"...  blames Ukraine for failing to give autonomy to its eastern regions ... "

Enter Gryslov (right), "a former Russian parliamentary speaker whom President Vladimir Putin handpicked as his personal envoy to the negotiations earlier this month." (Tatiana Kalinovskaya : AFP (Yahoo News) : 13 January, 2016) (my emphasis)

As Tatiana Kalinovskaya explains,

"Ukraine and pro-Russian rebels agreed a new truce deal Wednesday [n.b.: the same day that Obama and Putin had their telephone discussion about Ukraine] that goes into immediate effect and replaces one broken just hours after its signature at the end of last month.

The latest ceasefire was negotiated between Moscow and Kiev envoys in the Belarussian capital Minsk with the help of a senior negotiator from the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE).

Both Ukrainian and OSCE officials said the latest initiative was pushed forward by Boris Gryzlov" (ibid Tatiana Kalinovskaya) (my emphasis)

As I stated in my blog entry of 1 Jan., 2016,

"Putin simply cannot withdraw all his Russian forces, armaments, and rebel-proxies from eastern Ukraine since it would signal a complete failure on his part in the eyes of the Russian people."

It is for this reason that Putin will not fulfill the post election conditions in the rebel held territory of eastern Ukraine of returning the border control between Ukraine and Russia back to Ukraine, as stipulated in Minsk2, and why he is now demanding that changes to the status of eastern Ukraine should become permanent, and not simply last for 3 years.

Recall, also, that the Skype call between Putin, Merkel, Hollande, and Poroshenko on the 30th December 2015, also pushed for elections in eastern Ukraine, as specified in the Minsk2 protocols.

"Special attention was given to the preparation of the Donbas local elections, which are scheduled to take place early next year. All the participants expressed their support for the working group on political issues, which must help define the modalities of the elections between now and the end of January 2016, with the help of the OSCE and the Venice Commission." (Embassy of France in London : 30 December 2015) (my emphasis)

Since these elections

• will come under the intense scrutiny of the international community, 
• be supervised by Ukraine, the EU, Russia, and the OSCE, 

Putin has no other alternative but to demand that changes to the Ukrainian constitution about the 'special status' of the rebel held areas of eastern Ukraine should be permanent, so that their 'special status' can become the next Abkhazia, a region completely controlled by Russia.

Did Obama's speech writers of his final State of the Union address take this into account? Did they ignore the fact that,

".... in his 2016 New Year address, Putin explicitly states,


".... Today I would like to extend special greetings to those of our service members who are fighting international terrorism, defending Russia's national interest at distant frontiers showing their willpower, determination, and staunchness. These are the qualities we need all the time" (cf. video below for full address)

Since he regards the frontiers of the rebel-held teritories in eastern Ukraine (AND IN CRIMEA!) as part of the Russian frontier, will he be willing to fulfill both the letter and the spirit of Minsk2"? (blog entry )

Which brings us back to Obama's remark about,

"Russia is pouring resources in to prop up Ukraine and Syria -- client states they saw slipping away from their orbit"

As Robert Coalson and Tetiana Iakubovych ask,

"... the president's infelicitous comment about Ukraine is all the more difficult to understand. Was Obama referring to Russia's support for former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, the pro-Russian leader who was driven from office by pro-democracy demonstrations in February 2014?

Or did he have in mind Moscow's economic, political, and military support for separatists in eastern Ukraine and Crimea, the Ukrainian Black Sea peninsula that Moscow annexed in March 2014?" (ibid RFERL) (my emphasis)

 

(to be continued)

Putin digging in his heels over the 'Federalization' of Ukraine.

In my blog entry of 1st January, 2016, I wrote that,

"Putin simply cannot withdraw all his Russian forces, armaments, and rebel-proxies from eastern Ukraine since it would signal a complete failure on his part in the eyes of the Russian people.
.............
As Ryan Faith so succinctly puts it,

"A lot has been written about why Putin may have gotten involved in Ukraine's Donbass region following the Great Crimean Heist of 2014.

For starters, there's the slightly messianic vision of Putin as Protector of All Russians. He's been making increasingly louder noises about Moscow's responsibility to safeguard the various ethnic Russians scattered throughout the post-Soviet republics. (Vice News: December 31, 2015) (my emphasis)

So, will Putin fulfill the letter and the spirit of Minsk2, the day after these elections are held in the rebel-held territories of eastern Ukraine?

As the old saying goes, "Pigs will fly!" (blog)

Paragraph 9 of the Minsk2 protocols specify that,

"Restore control of the state border to the Ukrainian government in the whole conflict zone, which has to start on the first day after the local election and end after the full political regulation (local elections in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts based on the law of Ukraine and Constitutional reform) by the end of 2015, on the condition of fulfillment of Point 11 – in consultations and in agreement with representatives of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts within the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group." (Wikipedia) (my emphasis)

It is Paragraph 11 of Minsk2 that, from the very creation of the Minsk2 protocols, identifies Minsk2 as Putin's protocols.

"Constitutional reform in Ukraine, with a new constitution to come into effect by the end of 2015, the key element of which is decentralisation (taking into account peculiarities of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, agreed with representatives of these districts), and also approval of permanent legislation on the special status of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in accordance with the measures spelt out in the attached footnote,by the end of 2015." (ibid Wikipedia) (my emphasis)

Even more significant in identifying Putin's fingerprints all over Minsk2 are some of the details that were attached to paragraph 11.

The following measures are to be included in the Ukrainian law "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts":

• Participation of local self-government in the appointment of the heads of prosecutors' offices and courts in the particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts
• The state will provide support for the socio-economic development of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts
• Assistance from central executive bodies for cross-border cooperation by particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts with regions of the Russian Federation
• The freedom to create people's militia units by decision of local councils to maintain public order in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts (ibid Wikipedia) (my emphasis)

 Is it therefore any wonder that Putin is now demanding that,

"..changes to the Ukrainian constitution should be permanent, as is stipulated in the Minsk agreements."? (UNIAN : 11.01.2016) (my emphasis)


In Putin's recent Bild interview (January 5, 2015, in Sochi), where he justifies his annexation of Crimea, he also,

"...  blames Ukraine for failing to give autonomy to its eastern regions ...

The Bild's 28 hundred-word write-up on Putin is accompanied by a 5-minute YouTube clip of the interview higlights where the Russian president blames Ukraine for failing to give autonomy to its eastern regions, as per the ceasefire declaration agreed to in Minsk during February 2015. " (UT :  Jan. 11, 2016) (my emphasis) (UT clip below)

As Putin so categorically states in his Bild interview,

"BILD: But one cannot simply challenge European state borders.

Putin: For me, it is not borders and state territories that matter, but people’s fortunes." (ibid Bild) (my emphasis)

Youtube clip of Bild interview : Video with German sub-titles

As Ryan Faith informed us before this Bild interview,

"He's been making increasingly louder noises about Moscow's responsibility to safeguard the various ethnic Russians scattered throughout the post-Soviet republics." (ibid Ryan Faith)

We should not forget the words of the former president of Ukraine, Leonid Kutchma, during the first Maidan uprising in 2004.

Putin hinted in 2004 at clearing Maidan with tanks, notwithstanding that many people would have died, including children.

Putin has not forgotten his failure to get Yanukovich elected as president of Ukraine in 2004, notwithstanding the evident fraud perpetrated by Yanukovich during those elections.

As Stalin once said,

"The people who cast the votes don't decide an election, the people who count the votes do." (BrainyQuote)


And Putin has resuscitated Stalin as a figure to be admired and emulated.

As Carol J. Williams (right) of the Los Angeles Times explains,

"Stalin's 29-year reign, generally seen by Russians in recent years as a dark and bloody chapter in the nation's history, has lately been applauded by Putin and his supporters as the foundation on which the great Soviet superpower was built." (Los Angeles Times : June 11, 2015)

Putin's current demand that,

"changes to the Ukrainian constitution should be permanent, as is stipulated in the Minsk agreements." (ibid UNIAN)

should therefore come as no surprise.

Putin is simply demanding payback for his failures during the first Ukrainian uprising that ultimately led to Maidan 1 and the ultimate election victory of Victor Yushenko to the presidency of Ukraine in 2004. 

Let it also not be forgotten that Putin recently,

" ...  [appointed] permanent member of the Security Council Boris Gryzlov (left)  the plenipotentiary representative of the Russian Federation in the Contact Group on Settling the Situation in Ukraine." (President of Russia : December 26, 2015) (my italics),

the very same Boris Gryslov who also failed in getting the EU representatives to accept the fraudulent election of Yanukovich to the Ukrainian presidency in 2004.

(to be continued)

Merkel coming to the aid of Putin

On Thursday (7 Jan. 2016) I wrote that,

"As in the case of the cyber attack on Estonia in 2007, Putin is once again hiding behind the skirts of "so-called" hackers, in the hope that the international community will not see him as the instigator of this cyber warfare against Ukraine.

Many commentators seem to be tip-toeing around pointing the finger directly at Putin." (blog)

Finally, yesterday Jim Finkle (right) reports that,

"U.S. cyber intelligence firm iSight Partners said on Thursday it has determined that a Russian hacking group known as Sandworm caused last month's unprecedented power outage in Ukraine.
"We believe that Sandworm was responsible," iSight's director of espionage analysis, John Hultquist, said in an interview.
.....

"It is a Russian actor operating with alignment to the interest of the state," Hultquist said. "Whether or not it's freelance, we don't know." (Reuters : Fri Jan 8, 2016) (my emphasis)




As Doug Bernard (right) also explains,

"Not surprisingly, Russia has figured as the principal suspect in planting the Ukrainian malware. Neither Russian or Ukrainian officials have spoken about the incident publicly, but in the past, government-linked Russian hackers have been tied to cyber-attacks in Estonia, Georgia and elsewhere." (VoA : January 07, 2016) (my emphasis)

Putin's 'maskirovka' mask is slipping very fast.

And whilst Putin's 'hackers' are busy 'cyber'-attacking the grid system of Ukraine, the Moscow Times reveals that,

"German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Thursday she believes there will be progress in the "Normandy format" negotiations on the Ukraine crisis over the next few months.

The "Normandy format" includes France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine.

"I believe that we will achieve progress in the Normandy negotiations between Russia and the Ukraine within the next months. I am optimistic," Merkel said at a Chamber of Industry and Commerce event in Magdeburg.." (Moscow Times : Jan. 08 2016) (my emphasis)

As I stated in my blog entry on 4 Jan. 2016,

"Now, however, events between Iran and Saudi Arabia has rather "thrown the cat amongst the pidgeons" of this 'hidden agenda' of Merkel and Hollande. (i.e. to have the economic sanctions against Russia lifted)

Putin cannot 'suddenly' withdraw his support for Assad.

More importantly, Hollande cannot be seen to stand alongside Putin, thus courting the extreme displeasure of Saudi Arabia and her friends.

Merkel, on the other hand, has given refuge to hundreds of thousands of  Syrian refugees.

Merkel can help Putin get off the Syrian hook on which he now dangles.

Will she now force Putin's hand over Ukraine" (blog)

As her current optimism indicates, it would seem that this is precisely what she is doing viz. forcing Putin's hand over Ukraine.

But will it work?

(to be continued)

Putin's cyber warfare against Ukraine will not help him.

In 2007,

"Estonia says the country's websites have been under heavy attack for the past three weeks, blaming Russia for playing a part in the cyber warfare.

Many of the attacks have come from Russia and are being hosted by Russian state computer servers, Tallinn says. Moscow denies any involvement." (BBC News : Thursday, 17 May 2007) (my emphasis)

And on December 23, 2015,

"Experts say they have established the world’s first known case of a cyber attack on a power grid, which cut power to more than 600,000 homes in Ukraine in late December. US intelligence agencies and cyber security experts are looking to Russia as the likely source of the attack.....
 .........
It’s a scenario that has long worried cyber security experts. “It’s a milestone because we’ve definitely seen targeted destructive events against energy before—oil firms, for instance—but never the event which causes the blackout,” John Hultquist, director of cyber espionage analysis at iSIGHT told Ars Technica." (Quartz : January 06, 2016) (my emphasis)

Robert Lipovsky and Anton Cherepanov give us a detailed insight into the nature of this cyber attack.

They explain that,

"... The BlackEnergy backdoor, as well as a recently discovered SSH backdoor, themselves provide attackers with remote access to infected systems. After having successfully infiltrated a critical system with either of these trojans, an attacker would, again theoretically, be perfectly capable of shutting it down. In such case, the planted KillDisk destructive trojan would act as a means of making recovery more difficult." (welivesecurity : 4 Jan 2016) (my emphasis)

As in the case of the cyber attack on Estonia in 2007, Putin is once again hiding behind the skirts of "so-called" hackers, in the hope that the international community will not see him as the instigator of this cyber warfare against Ukraine.

Many commentators seem to be tip-toeing around pointing the finger directly at Putin. 

Yet as recently as December 21,  Paul Baldwin  informed us that,

"Speaking on a documentary broadcast on Russian TV, Putin said he would not wield the "nuclear big stick".

But he threatened to liquidate Islamic State jihadis with nuclear warheads if conventional bombing raids fail to destroy the terror group.

The Russian president warned that his military's cruise missiles could be fitted with atomic weapons." (Daily Express : Mon, Dec 21, 2015)  (my emphasis)

If Putin is willing to use nuclear warheads against Daesh (Isis), are we to assume that he will be 'morally stricken' against using cyber warfare against the civilian population of Ukraine?

Let us not forget those aparment bombings in Moscow in September of 1999, that led to the deaths of  hundreds of innocent sleeping Russians.

"Yury Felshtinsky, Alexander Litvinenko, Boris Berezovsky, David Satter, Boris Kagarlitsky, Vladimir Pribylovsky, and the secessionist Chechen authorities claimed that the 1999 bombings were a false flag attack coordinated by the FSB in order to win public support for a new full-scale war in Chechnya, which boosted Prime Minister and former FSB Director Vladimir Putin's popularity, and brought the pro-war Unity Party to the State Duma and Putin to the presidency within a few months" (Wikipedia) (my emphasis)


Following on from his cyber attack on Ukraine's electricity grid; in Ukraine's Transcarpathian region,

"An explosion ripped through a natural gas pipeline in western Ukraine's Transcarpathian region on Friday, January 1st (2016)." (UT : Jan. 1, 2016) (my emphasis)

What signal can Putin be sending to Ukraine by blowing up a natural gas pipeline that sends the gas of Gazprom to the EU, where it earns much needed cash for a Russian economy that is nose-diving into a near complete collapse?

As Ted Meyer writes,

"While the continued free fall of oil prices has contributed in part to another year of growth for the United States economy, the picture is much less rosy in Russia. With an economy that is highly dependent on oil and gas exports, the shrinking oil prices have hit Russia hard...(http://zenrus.ru/)

..... in November the Russian GDP shrank after a few months of incremental growth. All of this bad news begs a question: is Russia’s economy headed for collapse in 2016?" (Investopedia : January 06, 2016)

Also, as Allister Heath of the Daily Telegraph (17 Dec 2014) explains in the video below: 

 
Putin, it would seem, has a political and economic timebomb ticking beneath him. Attacking the Ukrainian electricity grid will simply not stop that bomb ticking down.

(to be continued)

Putin's Syrian gambit has blown up in his face!

Putin's Syrian gambit has blown up in his face!

As Kristian Coates Ulrichsen reports,

 
" ..... the breakdown in diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran probably sounds the death-knell, at least for now, for regional efforts to end the wars in Yemen and Syria." (BBC News : 4 Jan. 2016)

Putin's hope that his intervention in Syria would deflect the eyes of the world away from his war with Ukraine, and propel him onto the international scene as the primary broker of peace in Syria,  has drastically backfired.

He backed the wrong horse! Bashar Al Assad!

Bashar Al Assad (left), the Alawite, an Islamic sect, centered in Syria, who follow a branch of the Twelver school of Shia Islam but with syncretistic elements, and who has the full backing of Iran, whose diplomatic relations with Sunni Islam Saudi Arabia has now been severed, has now become a millstone around the neck of Putin.. 

Putin's effort in continuing to de-stabilise Ukraine will now be concentrated on dragging it through the courts in London.

As Chris Papadopoullos (right) reports,

"The tense standoff between Ukraine and Russia over a $3bn loan will enter its next stages in London as we head into 2016.

......... The countries’ debt standoff goes back to 2013, when Russia offered the Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych the loan. It was supposed to be the initial tranche of a $15bn package, designed to keep Ukraine closer to Russia than the EU.

But when Yanukovych was ousted in 2014, the new government began pushing for closer ties with the EU, signing the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement." (City A.M. : 4 January 2016) (my emphasis)

If Putin's failed Syrian gambit were not enough to give him his first New Year's headache, then the revelation that,

" .... Some 20 Russian soldiers - reportedly involved in downing flight MH17 over Ukraine in 2014 - have been identified. The suspects are revealed in a new report by Bellingcat, a team of investigative journalists. Dutch prosecutors say they are seriously examining the data to assess whether it can be used as evidence in the international criminal investigation." ( UT : Jan. 4, 2016) (my emphasis)

surely must.

So whilst Putin is dragging Ukraine into British courts to deny that his $3 billion loan to former Ukrainian president Victor Yanukovich was NOT a bribe to keep Ukraine away from a closer economic union with the EU, Dutch prosecutors are closer to dragging him into an International Court over the shooting down of MH17. 

Now recall  that,".. On the evening of 13 November 2015, a series of coordinated terrorist attacks occurred in Paris and its northern suburb, Saint-Denis." (Wikipedia)

As a result, Franscoise Hollande, President of France, joined forces with Putin on Nov 27 2015 in a joint effort to fight against Daesh (ISIS). (NBC News : Nov 27 2015)

At this point in time, Putin was standing 'four square' behind Bashar Al Assad.

This relationship between Hollande and Putin no doubt 'coloured' Hollande's input during the recent Skype meeting between Merkel, Hollande, Poroshenko and Putin, regarding the full implementation of Minsk2.

Bear in mind also that Merkel opened the doors of Germany to hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees fleeing from Assad's war against his people, even though she initially received much 'flak' from many political quarters in Germany. (Deborah Cole : AFP (Yahoo News): 15 December 2015)

As I stated in my last blog entry,

"From this [Skype Conference held on 30 December, 2015] one can only deduce that the hidden agenda of Merkel and Hollande is to get sanctions against Russia lifted!

 

Watch this hidden agenda unfold as the New Year progresses."

Now, however, events between Iran and Saudi Arabia has rather "thrown the cat amongst the pidgeons" of this 'hidden agenda' of Merkel and Hollande. 

Putin cannot 'suddenly' withdraw his support for Assad.

More importantly, Hollande cannot be seen to stand alongside Putin, thus courting the extreme displeasure of Saudi Arabia and her friends.

Merkel, on the other hand, has given refuge to hundreds of thousands of  Syrian refugees.

Merkel can help Putin get off the Syrian hook on which he now dangles.

Will she now force Putin's hand over Ukraine? 

(to be continued)

Putin, Merkel, and Hollande; selling out Ukraine in 2016

The New Year is upon us, and the DCFTA (Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement) between Ukraine and the EU has come into force.

And, true to form, Putin is spitting nails!

As reported by Letitia Peron and Oleksandr Savochenko of AFP,

" ..... Russia has taken retaliatory measures, suspending its free-trade agreement with Ukraine and banning the import of Ukrainian food starting on Friday." (Yahoo News (AFP) : January 1, 2016) (my emphasis)

To which Ukraine is responding by,

".... [s]tarting from Jan. 10, Ukraine will restrict imports to the country of 43 Russian products, including vodka, beer, cigarettes, meat, chocolates, dairy products, animal food and locomotives, according to a resolution taken at a government meeting on Dec. 30.

The government said it had approved the import restrictions as a response to a trade embargo of Ukrainian food Russia previously announced it would impose from Jan. 1." (KyivPost : Dec. 31, 2015) (my emphasis)

"Agriculture Minister Oleksiy Pavlenko estimated the value of Ukrainian exports that Russia would ban at some $116.4 million, while the value of Russian imports Ukraine planned to ban was some $118.8 million." (ibid KyivPost) (my emphasis)

So what can Putin do now? Why, simply that,

"...the longer that separatists in the DPR and LPR keep creating problems for the Ukrainian central government in Kiev, the longer Moscow can rail against Kiev for not living up to ceasefire and election promises in the breakaway territories." (Ryan Faith : Vice News : 31 December, 2015) (my emphasis)

Which brings us to that Skype conference between Merkel, Hollande, Poroshenko, and Putin last Wednesday. (30 December, 2015)

As reported by BBC News,

"In a statement released on Wednesday, the French government said: "Angela Merkel, Francois Hollande, Vladimir Putin and Petro Poroshenko have reaffirmed their commitment to a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine and to a concerted pullout without delay of heavy weapons."

Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France - the so-called Normandy Four - also discussed preparations for local elections in the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk in early 2016." (BBC News : 30 December 2015) (my emphasis)

 If preparations for these 'local elections' in the rebel-held territories of eastern Ukraine were discussed, following these elections, WILL THE FULL conditions of Minsk2 be implemented?

As stated in my last blog entry,

"Like Steinmeier, Gryslov will be pushing, "to ensure that local elections [in the rebel-held areas] take place at the beginning of 2016", whilst Putin still maintains FULL control of the border between Ukraine and Russia in the rebel-held areas, even though the Minsk2 agreement states that,

"Restore full control over the state border by Ukrainian government in the whole conflict zone, which has to start on the first day after the local election and end after the full political regulation (local elections in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts based on the law of Ukraine and Constitutional reform) by the end of 2015.." (Daily Telegraph : 12 Feb 2015) (my emphasis)

This link between local elections in the rebel-held areas and the restoring of Ukrainian control over its borders is what Gryslov will be determined to break, especially in light of the increasing pressure being put on Poroshenko to show that he is dealing effectively with the issue of rampant corruption in Ukraine."

This critical link between elections and the restoration of FULL border control in eastern Ukraine passing back to the Ukrainian military has now been broken by Hollande, Merkel, and Putin.

Putin simply cannot withdraw all his Russian forces, armaments, and rebel-proxies from eastern Ukraine since it would signal a complete failure on his part in the eyes of the Russian people.

In his 2016 New Year address, he explicitly states,


".... Today I would like to extend special greetings to those of our service members who are fighting international terrorism, defending Russia's national interest at distant frontiers showing their willpower, determination, and staunchness. These are the qualities we need all the time" (cf. video below for full address)

Since he regards the frontiers of the rebel-held teritories in eastern Ukraine (AND IN CRIMEA!) as part of the Russian frontier, will he be willing to fulfill both the letter and the spirit of Minsk"?

As Ryan Faith so succinctly puts it,

"A lot has been written about why Putin may have gotten involved in Ukraine's Donbass region following the Great Crimean Heist of 2014.

For starters, there's the slightly messianic vision of Putin as Protector of All Russians. He's been making increasingly louder noises about Moscow's responsibility to safeguard the various ethnic Russians scattered throughout the post-Soviet republics. (ibid Vice News) (my emphasis)

So, will Putin fulfill the letter and the spirit of Minsk2, the day after these elections are held in the rebel-held territories of eastern Ukraine?


As the old saying goes, "Pigs will fly!"


From this one can only deduce that the hidden agenda of Merkel and Hollande is to get sanctions against Russia lifted!

 

Watch this hidden agenda unfold as the New Year progresses.
 
(to be continued)