Is Putin being let off the hook of a crumbling economy, at the expense of Ukraine?

In my blog-entry of 4th January, I stated that,

"This relationship between Hollande and Putin no doubt 'coloured' Hollande's input during the recent Skype meeting between Merkel, Hollande, Poroshenko and Putin, regarding the full implementation of Minsk2.

Bear in mind also that Merkel opened the doors of Germany to hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees fleeing from Assad's war against his people, even though she initially received much 'flak' from many political quarters in Germany. (Deborah Cole : AFP (Yahoo News): 15 December 2015)

As I stated in my last blog entry,

"From this [Skype Conference held on 30 December, 2015] one can only deduce that the hidden agenda of Merkel and Hollande is to get sanctions against Russia lifted!

 

Watch this hidden agenda unfold as the New Year progresses."

Suddenly, since yesterday (25 Jan. 2016), a veritable 'chorus' has erupted, from John Kerry to the French Economy Minister Emmanuel Macron to the German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, and to that 'dyed-in-the-wool" Soviet foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, that sanctions against Putin's Russia could soon be lifted.

As Gregory Viscusi, Ian Wishart, and Kambiz Foroohar report,

"The worsening of crises from Syria to Libya are forcing the international community to reconsider sanctions slapped on President Vladimir Putin’s government over Ukraine as a way of getting a key diplomatic power broker on board. Of late, a flurry of senior officials from the U.S. and the European Union have suggested a thaw is within reach." (Bloomberg Business : January 26, 2016) (my emphasis)

Furthermore that,

"German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble (right) wrote in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung newspaper Monday that the EU should forge closer ties with Russia to help resolve the civil war in Syria and reduce tension in the Middle East between Sunni and Shia Muslims.

That came on the heels of Economy Minister Emmanuel Macron (left) telling his country’s businessmen in Moscow that France would like to see sanctions lifted by the summer.

“[John] Kerry (right) is holding the possibility of lifting the sanctions but Russia has to do certain things, like cooperate on Ukraine and Syria and then the U.S. would reverse some sanctions,” said Mark Katz, a professor of government and politics at George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia. (ibid Viscusi, Wishart, and Foroohar) (my emphasis)

These developments come close on the heels of that 'secret' meeting between Victoria Nuland and Vladislav Surkov (left) held on Jan. 15 in Kaliningrad.

As Lucian Kim reports,

" ... Their six-hour “brainstorming” session, Surkov later told Russian journalists, touched on the thorniest issues of Ukraine’s tenuous peace process and proved both “constructive and useful.” (Reuters : January 25, 2016) (my emphasis)

In yesterday's blog entry (25 Jan. 2016) I wrote that,

"Is the ghost of Catherine the Great, that German "daughter of Prince Christian of Analt-Zerbst, a small German principality", [who] at "15 years old, [was selected by] Empress Elizabeth of Russia to be the wife of her nephew and heir, the future Emperor (Czar) Peter III, of Russia, and who "annexed Crimea "in violation of the Peace Treaty of Kϋϛϋk Kaynarca.", hovering over Angela Merkel? (Crimea Historical Society)
 

Is it not ironic that the two Germans, Catherine the Great and Angela Merkel, are giving Crimea to Russia, the first by conquest, and the second by ..... political expediency?

Is it therefore any wonder that Poroshenko is now putting Crimea back on the agenda, expecting to,

".... bring the Russian-occupied part of eastern Ukraine and annexed Crimea back under government control by the year’s end."? (KyivPost :  Jan. 14, 2016)"

And today we have that 'dyed-in-the-wool-Soviet' foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, pronouncing that,

"There is nothing to return, we are in talks with no one on Crimea's return. Crimea is Russian territory in full conformity with the expression of will of Crimea's peoples," he said at a news conference dedicated to the results of 2015, TASS wrote." (UNIAN : 26.01.2016) (my emphasis)

This sudden eruption of calls to

• lift sanctions against Russia as a sort of 'payback' to Putin for coming on side in the Syrian conflict, and
• Lavrov's sudden outburst about Ukrainian Crimea being "Russian territory in full conformity with the expression of will of Crimea's peoples"

cannot be co-incidental.

Which rather also poses the question,

"Will this sudden call for the lifting of sanctions apply exclusively to those sanctions implemented when Putin started his war with Ukraine in the Ukrainian Donbas region, or will it also INCLUDE those sanctions imposed on Putin and his cronies over his annexation of Ukrainian Crimea?"

Those now clamouring for the lifting of sanctions are NOT making this distinction.

This is why Lavrov is now hastily pre-empting Poroshenko's strategy to bring,

"... Crimea back under [Ukrainian] government control by the year’s end." (KyivPost :  Jan. 14, 2016)"

But perhaps the most significant aspect of this call to lift the sanctions against Putin and his cronies, is the fact that, finally, the international community has been made aware of the corrupt and kleptocratic nature of Putin himself. 

And this is the man that is now being let off the hook of his country's collapsing economy, a country's from which he has plundered billions of dollars.

(to be continued) 

Is Putin being bought off with Crimea?

BBC News reported today (25/1/2016) that,

• "Russia's economy contracted by 3.7% in 2015, according to preliminary figures published by the country's statistics service.
• Retail sales plunged by 10% and capital investment fell by 8.4% in the economy's worst performance since 2009.
• Even pro-Kremlin media now admit that the country is facing a full blown economic crisis.
• Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev warned earlier this month that the fall could force Russia's 2016 budget to be revised." (BBC News : 25 January 2016)

By contrast, Holly Ellyat (left) of CNBC reported from Davos (cf: also James Quinn : Daily Telegraph) that,

"Despite rampant inflation and only a recent recovery from recession, Ukraine will be able to eke out modest growth in 2016, Ukraine's finance minister told CNBC Thursday.
 ....
Natalie Ann Jaresko [Ukraine Finance Minister] told CNBC on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos.

"We've turned the corner and I think this year, we're looking to see growth and even if it's slight growth, it's growth. Coming out of a recession, restoring stability and providing new jobs and new consumer purchasing power to the people (is the aim)." (CNBC : Thu, 21 Jan '16)(my emphasis)

We now have to ask ourselves the following questions.

(1) Why is the so-called leader of the eastern Ukraine rebel held area of Donetsk,
      Alexander Zakharchenko (right) once again,

• "[refusing] to hold a local ballot in accordance with Ukrainian law
• [banning] the participation of any Ukrainian parties in future local elections [in the rebel held area of Donetsk]"? (UT : Jan. 24, 2016)

(2) Why has the French Finance Minister, Emmanuel Macron, stated on a recent visit to
      Moscow  that,
 

"The goal that we all share is to be able to lift the sanctions this summer because the (Minsk peace) process will have been respected," Macron told French business executives during a visit

to Moscow."? (Yahoo News (Moscow (AFP)) : 25 Jan. 2016) (my emphasis)

But perhaps, most important of all,

(3) Why has US Secretary of State, John Kerry, just last Friday (22 Jan. 2016)

"....held out the prospect of lifting the sanctions if the Minsk agreement is implemented in full.

"With effort and with bona-fide legitimate intent to solve the problem on both sides, it is possible in these next months to find those Minsk agreements implemented," Kerry said in a speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland."? (ibid Emmanuel Macron) (my emphasis)

The statements of Emmanuel Macron and John Kerry throws into sharp relief

• the unbridgeable gulf that has grown between Putin and his proxy, Alexander Zakharchenko, in the rebel-held Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine, 
• as well as the possible understatement of Putin's economic woes by so many western economic pundits, woes that can be ameliorated if sanctions against Russia are lifted.

Poroshenko, however, still has to convince the Ukrainian parliament (the Rada) that the implementation of points 3 & 9 of Minsk1 viz.

• Decentralisation of power, including through the adoption of the Ukrainian law "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts".
•  To ensure early local elections in accordance with the Ukrainian law "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts". (Wikipedia)

has to take place if the Minsk2 agreement is to be fulfilled, and an end to the war between Russia and Ukraine be brought about.

But these are the sticking points for many in the Ukrainian Rada.

To appease his critics in the Rada, President Poroshenko stated that,

"Ukraine will not give its eastern regions greater autonomy until a lasting ceasefire with pro-Russian separatist rebels is in place, President Petro Poroshenko said on Sunday, in comments that could antagonise the rebels and the Kremlin." (Natalia Zinets : Reuters:  Sun Jan 24, 2016) (my emphasis)

Poroshenko added that,

"Another condition is giving international monitors unfettered access to the border between Ukraine and Russia to monitor the flow of troops and arms into eastern Ukraine." (ibid Natalia Zinets) (my emphasis)

However he also warned that,

"Those political forces that want to torpedo the Minsk agreements at any cost...and to block the constitutional process, must clearly understand the consequences of their actions," he said.

"They will lead to the resumption of the 'hot phase' of the conflict, including a full-scale -- and not local, as it has been so far -- conflict with Russia," he added. (RFERL : Monday, January 25, 2016) (my emphasis)

Underscoring Poroshenko's warning, Diane Francis (right) of the Financial Post reports that,

“If Ukraine collapses, another migration of a few million people to the EU will occur,” said financier George Soros during the panel discussion [at Davros].

“The German finance minister [Wolfgang Schaeble (left)] proposed an EU-funded Marshall Plan to help with its migration issues. That should include funds to help pay for Ukraine’s important role in defending Europe against Putin.” (The Vancouver Sun : January 24, 2016)

Yet we have John Kerry and Emmanuel Macron being rather upbeat about the FULL implementation of Minsk2 within a few months from now.

In other words, they envisage

• a full and sustainable ceasefire between Ukraine and Putin's rebel-proxies,
• the implementation of a "temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts",
• early local elections in accordance with the Ukrainian law (and under international supervision) "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts", and
• the giving to international monitors unfettered access to the border between Ukraine and Russia

within a few MONTHS from now. 

The critical condition of Poroshenko that international monitors have "unfettered access to the border" now controlled by Putin, and that Kerry and Macron seem to believe that this will be implemented a few months down the line, is either wishful thinking on their part, or the fact that Putin has decided to 'throw in the towel' and completely abandon his rebel proxies in eastern Ukraine.

For John Kerry and Emmanuel Mecron to expect Putin to 'throw in the towel', without him losing face, seems simply to be 'too good to be true'. 

Now recall that on Apr. 27, 2015, 9 months ago, Angela Merkel stated that, 

"The decision by all heads of states [during the European Council meeting in March] means that the duration of the sanctions is related to completing the Minsk agreements of February this year. " (UT : Apr. 27, 2015) (my emphasis)

However,

"... Merkel's comments did not clarify whether Russia's ongoing illegal occupation of Crimea was tied to maintaining sanctions. The EU, US and other western nations imposed sanctions on Moscow last year following their seizure of Ukrainian territory." (ibid UT) (my emphasis)

Is the ghost of Catherine the Great, that German "daughter of Prince Christian of Analt-Zerbst, a small German principality", [who] at "15 years old, [was selected by] Empress Elizabeth of Russia to be the wife of her nephew and heir, the future Emperor (Czar) Peter III, of Russia, and who "annexed Crimea "in violation of the Peace Treaty of Kϋϛϋk Kaynarca.", hovering over Angela Merkel? (Crimea Historical Society)

Is it not ironic that the two Germans, Catherine the Great and Angela Merkel, are giving Crimea to Russia, the first by conquest, and the second by ..... political expediency?

Is it therefore any wonder that Poroshenko is now putting Crimea back on the agenda, expecting to,

".... bring the Russian-occupied part of eastern Ukraine and annexed Crimea back under government control by the year’s end."? (KyivPost :  Jan. 14, 2016)

(to be continued)

Putin's abyss ... Alexander Litvinenko

The  published Report (21 January 2016) of the inquiry, chaired by Sir Robert Owen, into the 2006 murder of ex-Russian spy Alexander Litvinenko in London, has sent shockwaves throughout the world.

"Taking full account of all the evidence and analysis available to me, I find that the FSB operation to kill Litvinenko was probably approved by Mr Patrushev and also by President Putin," Sir Robert wrote." (BBC News : 21 January 2016) (my emphasis)

"[Sir Robert] Owen said the method of killing, with radioactive poison, fit with the deaths of several other opponents of Putin and his government, and noted that Putin had "supported and protected" Lugovoi since the killing, even awarding him a medal for service to the nation." (FirstPost (Associated Press) :  Jan 22, 2016) (my emphasis)

This findings of Sir Robert Owen has pulled the rug out from under the feet of Putin's assiduously cultivated image of himself since his days as deputy mayor of St. Petersburg in 1992.

Putin's inner-circle clan members, Boris Gryzlov (left), a real Kremlin heavyweight recently appointed as Moscow’s representative to peace talks about Ukraine, and Vladislav Surkov (right), another close adviser to Putin who recently held talks about the implementation of Minsk2 with Victoria Nuland, will now have difficulty in presenting Putin as anything other than a 'murderer' of political opponents.

The 'macho' image of Putin has been universally shattered, and will have a direct effect on those who have to deal with him on the international stage.

It is not so much that Putin has had one of his opponents murdered, as in the case of Boris Nemtsov or Anna Politkovskaya, but rather that the murder of Litvinenko took place in London rather than in Russia itself.

And Putin's executors of Litvinenko's murder are currently living in Moscow under the protection of Putin himself.

One is here reminded of the murder of  Leon Trotsky in Mexico by Stalin's assasins all those years ago.

This international exposing of Putin as a murderer, whilst the 2016 World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos is still taking place, and at which Holly Ellyat reports that,

"[Natalie] Jaresko said Crimea's annexation was still a raw topic for Ukraine and that the country's president was keen to keep the spotlight on Crimea. "(The Ukrainian president) recently held a press conference where he talked about trying to begin a dialogue so that Crimea doesn't fall off the agenda, because this has never fallen off the agenda for Ukraine," she said." (CNBC : 21 January,2016) (my emphasis)

will now internationally present Putin's annexation of Ukrainian Crimea in a different light.

It is now not merely Putin who annexed Ukrainian Crimea, but rather Putin 'the murderer' who did it.

Furthermore, given the fact that last Friday (15 January, 2016) one could almost hear Putin's 'Grey Cardinal', Vladislav Surkov, pushing Putin's agenda,

"...for assurances over some form of enhanced autonomy (Kosovo-style) or a federal-style solution [for eastern Ukraine] – which are still clearly unacceptable to Kyiv." (Timothy Ash : KyivPost : Jan. 18, 2016) (my emphasis),

we now has to wonder that whatever Nuland and Surkov may have agreed upon at this meeting, where they discussed the implementation of the Minsk2 agreements in Ukraine, and that took place behind closed doors in the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, may come to haunt Victoria Nuland.

Victoria Nuland now treads a very thin line, lest she falls into the same trap as did Neville Chamberlain who, after his meeting with Hitler, waved that piece of paper exclaiming, "peace for our time", and which was shortly followed by Hitler's  invasion of Poland and WWII.  


Putin's 'Grey Cardinal', Vladislav Surkov, may have been all "compromise and promising" over the full implementation of Minsk2 at their private meeting in Kaliningrad.

But now the words of Sir Robert Owen, like the Sword of Damocles, hangs over her head.

(to be continued)

Putin beginning to flounder

Timothy Ash  (left) speculates about that 'closed' meeting (15.01.2016) in the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad  between Victoria Nuland, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State, and Vladislav Surkov,, that,

"... Moscow seems to be willing to deal – and this was likely the topic of discussion for Nuland/Surkov, and also for Boris Gryzlov in his recent trip to Kyiv. The question will be how far Poroshenko wants to push Moscow at this stage, and will the West be cajoling him along to accept a compromise which still might be difficult for him to sell back home, and could still destabilize domestic politics in Ukraine. (KyivPost : Jan. 18, 2016) (my emphasis)

 Victoria Nuland                        Vladislav Surkov

 

Vladislav Surkov, known as the Kremlin's 'gray cardinal' by Russians, was

" .... brought [ ] in from the cold [ by Putin] as his personal advisor on the breakaway regions of Abkhasia and South Ossetia, as well as Ukraine, which is the position he holds to this day." (Cicero Magazine : June 17, 2015)

Timothy Ash further speculates that,

" I think what is clear is that Russia is now facing a much more difficult economic outlook than even a few months ago. The drop in oil prices over the past month, amid the Saudi-Iran schism, seems to have been the game-changer for Moscow – and survival of the regime seems to now be the name of the game (or at least there is serious concern how long Russia’s balance sheet can hold up to ensure social stability) (ibid KyivPost) (my emphasis)

Supporting his view that, "survival of the regime seems to now be the name of the game" is the fact that,

• Russian gas giant Gazprom on Tuesday fired off a new salvo in Moscow's feud with Ukraine by demanding some $2.5 billion for Kiev allegedly breaching its supply contract. (AFP (Yahoo News) :January 19, 2016) for gas that Ukraine DID NOT BUY from it. Furthermore, "Moscow failed to explain why Gazprom had decided to ask for the money nearly four months after it was allegedly due." (cf: Ania Tsoukanova and Max Delany) 

and,

• [Russian] Finance Minister Anton Siluanov (right) said the budget could only balance this year at $82 a barrel for oil. “We have to take well-thought-out measures on how to bring the budget in accordance with the new realities,” he said. “In the current difficult conditions, we must speak of a very thrifty, strict budget policy, in order not to end up with high deficit levels or a high volume of debt.” (Daniel Schearf: VOA : January 13, 2016)

Added to which,

".. French presidential envoy Jacques Audibert and his German counterpart Christoph Heusgen came to Kiev as part of a sudden resurgence in efforts to resolve one of Europe's deadliest crises since the 1990s Balkans wars." (Ania Tsoukanova and Max Delany : AFP (Yahoo News) : 20 January, 2016) (my emphasis)

Jacques Audibert and Christoph Heusgenmet,

"... also visited "practically all" lawmakers to see if they intended to pass a stalled Western-backed constitutional amendment granting special status to rebel-run parts of the eastern regions of Lugansk and Donetsk.

But a Ukrainian source said the French and German diplomats were met with a stern rebuff." (ibid Ania Tsoukanova and Max Delany) (my emphasis)

This sudden flurry of meetings being attended by top ranking Putin cronies, and focussed on trying to obtain a 'diplomatic face-saving' implementation of the Minsk2 protocols for Putin, also comes amid a growing dissatisfaction with the red tape, incompetence, and corruption that now rules annexed Ukrainian Crimea.

As Shaun Walker reports,

"Crimea deserves more than it has got over the past two years,” said Leonid Grach, the last communist leader of the territory before the Soviet Union collapsed.
“It should have been an example region of what can be done ... instead it feels like we are Russia’s unloved stepdaughter.”

....

“The money [Putin has poured into Ukrainian Crimea] has not gone to solve problems but has lined the pockets of the Crimean nouveaux riches,” he said. (The Guardian : Tuesday 19 January 2016) (my emphasis)

As another indicator of the survival strategy that Putin is now confronted with, there is an uptick in his flooding the EU with verifiable 'false' propaganda.

As reported by Andrew Rettman (left),

"The Azov Regiment, a squad of irregular, nationalist fighters in Ukraine, has debunked a YouTube clip threatening terrorist attacks if Dutch people vote No in a referendum on the EU-Ukraine trade treaty." (EU Observer : BRUSSELS, 19. Jan. 2016) (my emphasis)

The EU now has its own "Disinformation Review",

"... It is a weekly publication, which collects as many examples of the Russian disinformation attacks as possible, and in real time.
...
The review is being prepared by our recently established special EU Task Force (StratCom East) countering the Russian disinformation campaign." (EEAS : 14/11/2015)

This uptick in the spreading of 'false' propaganda about Ukraine by Putin's propaganda machine, together with the recent cyber attacks emanating from Russia on Borispol Airport and the Ukrainian electricity grid, is further consolidating Ukraine as a state that is becoming truly independent from Russia.

As Timothy Ash puts it,

"The harder that Moscow now presses Ukraine in the trade, economy, debt and energy fields, the more independent of Russia Ukraine becomes, and the weaker foothold that Russia will have for the future in Ukraine.

Thus having lost the battle for “heart and minds” in Ukraine after the annexation of Crimea and the military intervention in Donbas, there will be little reason for Ukrainians to economically interact with Russia – and even more to develop other economic relationships Westwards. (ibid Timothy Ash) (my emphasis)

And lest we forget.

Ukrainian army pilot Nadia Savchenko

Still held in a Russian prison.

(to be continued0

Putin's strategy against Ukraine is failing.

A rather interesting article appeared on the BBC News website this morning that made me chuckle.

It's conclusion were that,

"The failure of pollsters to forecast the outcome of the general election was largely due to "unrepresentative" poll samples, an inquiry has found.
...
An interim report by the panel of academics and statisticians found that the way in which people were recruited to take part - asking about their likely voting intentions - had resulted in "systematic over-representation of Labour voters and under-representation of Conservative voters"." (BBC News : 19 January,2016) (my emphasis)

Which brings me to the polling of the Levada Centre in Moscow, that repeatedly obtains near astronomical ratings, always hovering around the 80% - 85% mark, for Putin.

Why, only in October of last year,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin’s public approval rating rose to 88 percent in October from 84 percent the previous month, according to the Levada Center." (Scott Rose : Bloomberg Business : October 28, 2015) (my emphasis)

What is rather disturbing is that many pundits in the West unquestioningly accept these polling results of the Levada Centre. 

It 'colours', so to speak, their perceptions of Putin actions towards Ukraine and, more importantly, assumes that the Russian people are 'four square' behind his actions in Ukraine.

 As Olga Irisova (right) explains,

"Today, the perception of Vladimir Putin in Europe is both overblown and distorted.
.....
This image of “Putin the hero” in Europe is promoted not just by Russian media outlets with a focus on foreign audiences, but also with the help of local media that is either “bewitched by him” or sponsored directly by the Kremlin." (New Eastern Europe : Monday, 04 January 2016) (my emphasis)

This is perhaps best illustrated by Putin's bankrolling of Marine Le Pen's 'Front Nationale', and her open admiration of him.

 

As recently reported by Peter Foster,

"A dossier of “Russian influence activity” seen by The Sunday Telegraph identified Russian influence operations running in France, the Netherlands, Hungary as well as Austria and the Czech Republic, which has been identified by Russian agents as an entry-point into the Schengen free movement zone." (The Telegraph : 16 Jan 2016) (my emphasis)

More sinister, however, is the fact that,

"Russian influence has also been detected in a referendum in the Netherlands next April over whether to block the EU’s closer relations with Ukraine. Sources said arguments deployed in support of the referendum “closely resembled” known Russian propaganda." (ibid Peter Foster) (my emphasis)

We now also have a further escalation of Putin beginning to pull out all the stops for an accelerated 'cyber attack on Ukraine, following the cyber attack on the electricity grid of Ukraine that left thousands of Ukrainians without electricity last month.

Now Boryspil, Kiev's major airport, has also come under 'cyber attack'.

"A cyber attack on Kyiv's main airport was launched from a server in Russia, Ukraine's military spokesman told Reuters on Monday, as the state-run Computer Emergency Response Team (CERT-UA) warned of the threat of further attacks.

Malware similar to that which attacked three Ukrainian power firms in late December was detected in a computer in the IT network of Kyiv's main airport, Boryspil, last week. The network includes the airport's air traffic control." (UT : Jan. 18, 2016) (my emphasis) (cf. also: Pavel Polityuk and Alessandra Prentice : Reuters)

These cyber attacks of Putin against Ukraine comes in the wake of the fact that,

"The impact of the economic crisis is now noticeable in everyday life in Russia. Many are now living below the poverty line. The number of people seeking help is rising. DW's Philipp Anft reports from Moscow. (DW : 17.01.2016) (my emphasis) 

 

Even Putin's 'glove puppet', Dmitry Medvedev, had to admit that,

"... the gravest result [of the current economic crisis in Russia] was the fall in real incomes. “Many people have become poorer,” he said. “And, the middle class has suffered. And, this is probably one of the most painful aftereffects of the last years.” (Daniel Schearf : VOA : January 13, 2016) (my emphasis)

Putin's 'cyber warfare' against Ukraine will not fill the bellies of the Russian people.

What will be interesting to see is whether the Levada Centre in Moscow will continue to to give Putin those sky-high ratings as the Russian people become more impoverished, thanks to his kleptocratic cabal 'feathering their own nest' at the expense of the people of Russia.

(to be continued) 

Is Putin heading for the abyss in 2016?

Fred Weir speculates that,

"It looks like the Kremlin is getting serious about resolving the ongoing Ukraine crisis....
.....

Experts say that suggests the Kremlin is tiring of the long stalemate over the war-torn Donbass region, and is readying for a concerted push to solve remaining issues and prompt an end to the Western sanctions that even Mr. Putin admits are "severely harming" Russia's economy." (CSM :January 15, 2016) (my emphasis)

The assumption of Fred Weir that sanctions are "severely harming" Russia's economy seems to rather ignore the fact that the price of oil, upon which the whole of the Russian economy is so dependent, continues along the slippery slope towards $20 per barrel.

As reported in The Week yesterday,

"...Oil dips below $30 a barrel for third day in a row – and is likely to go lower" (The Week : Jan 15, 2016)

This is having a severe impact on the Russian economy, as even Putin's glove puppet, Dmitry Medvedev, and Anton Siluanov, Putin's Economic Minster, both have to admit. (cf. also : Moscow Times)

As Olga Tanas, Anna Andrianova, and Ryan Chilcote explain,

"The renewed decline in oil prices is forcing Russia to extend an austerity drive that’s without precedent during President Vladimir Putin’s 16 years in power. The fiscal rigor, though, will go only so far....

.....

“Given that Putin’s military actions serve like an investment in his political standing at home, I do not think that much money will be saved here,” said Wolf-Fabian Hungerland, an economist at Berenberg Bank in Hamburg, Germany. “With every dollar less for a barrel of oil, the chances increase that the holes in the Russian budget can really not be covered anymore.” (Bloomberg Business : January 14, 2016) (my emphasis)

And as Darya Korsunskaya also reports,

"Russia must cut expenditure to cover what could be a more than $45 billion drop in revenues this year if the average oil price is $50 a barrel, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said on Wednesday." (Reuters (Business Insider) : Jan. 14, 2015) 

Already oil is diving towards a price of $20 per barrel.

Putin is "over an economic barrel", so to speak. 

It is therefore no wonder that Poroshenko is now vowing,

" ... to win back control of Crimea as well as the rebel-held land in the east of the country but says he needs help from the EU and the US.
 ........
"Ukraine's sovereignty must be restored over the occupied territories in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in 2016" he said, adding that: "The fight for Crimea's return remains a priority." ( Brendan Cole : International Business Times : January 15, 2016) (my emphasis)

If it were not enough that Putin now finds himself "over an economic barrel", his attempt to further hinder the export capabilities of Ukraine has also somewhat backfired.

As his propaganda mouthpiece, RT, crowed yesterday,

"It turns out that losing Russian exports and trade preferences isn’t the only problem Ukraine will face as the trade ban by Moscow comes into force. The transit of Ukrainian goods to Central Asia through Russia has also been halted." (RT : 14 Jan, 2016) (my emphasis)

Unfortunately, however, RT rather conspicuously failed to mention that,

"Ukraine has launched the first cargo train to China that will bypass Russia along a new "Silk Road" meant to counter the Kremlin's most stringent trade embargo on Kiev to date.

 

This is a historic event," Ukrainian Infrastructure Minister Andriy Pyvovarskiy wrote on Facebook.

"Now, Ukraine is not just a potential transit country between the East and West, but one that has finally realised its potential." (AFP (Times of India) : Jan 15, 2016) (my emphasis) (cf also: UT)

What is even more devastating for Putin about this new "Silk Road" is that it also involves Turkey, Putin's latest 'scapegoat' on his controlled Russian media.

"Major logistics companies from China, Kazakhstan, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Turkey signed late November a document on establishing a consortium for the transportation of goods from China to Europe, bypassing the Russian territory." (UT : Dec. 5, 2015) (my emphasis)


Notwithstanding these economic setbacks that now confronts Putin, we should always be mindful of the fact, as Ryan Faith explains,  that,

"A lot has been written about why Putin may have gotten involved in Ukraine's Donbass region following the Great Crimean Heist of 2014.

For starters, there's the slightly messianic vision of Putin as Protector of All Russians. He's been making increasingly louder noises about Moscow's responsibility to safeguard the various ethnic Russians scattered throughout the post-Soviet republics." (Vice News : December 31, 2015) (my emphasis)

Putin expressed this "messianic vision" during his New Year address to the Russian people.
 

To suggest, as does Fred Weir, that Putin is ready to scrap this "messianic vision" of his, even as the Russian economy crumbles around his feet, is to underestimate the tenacity with which he clings to power.

More importantly, however, any failure on his part that diminishes his stature in the eyes of the Russian people, and that may lead to his downfall, will bring to the surface the extensive catalogue of his criminal activities that was set in motion when he set up his criminal cabal in St. Petersburg between 1990 and 1998 with the proceeds of the millions he stole from the people of St. Petersburg. 

(to be continued)

Obama's gaffe .... Putin's gain?

Politicians are said to choose their words rather carefully, lest they give the 'wrong' impression that can lead to unforseen consequences.

In his final State of the Union address on Tuesday 12 January 2016, Obama 

• either made a mistake in referring to Ukraine as a Russian 'client' state,
• or he sent a signal to Putin that US policy regarding Putin's annexation of Crimea, and his current war with Ukraine, is a somewhat 'legitimate' reaction of Russia towards his Ukrainian 'client' state ', and into which he is pouring resources to 'prevent Ukraine from slipping away from Russia's orbit'!

""Even as their economy contracts, Russia is pouring resources in to prop up Ukraine and Syria -- client states they saw slipping away from their orbit," (Robert Coalson and Tetiana Iakubovych : RFERL : Thursday, January 14, 2016) (Obama's complete address can be found at : ABC News)

Now  Obama's chief speechwriter, Jon Favreau (right),explains that,

"The annual address to a joint session of the U.S. Congress is one of the U.S. president's most comprehensively prepared and vetted speeches." 

Furthermore,

"..[he]  told National Public Radio earlier in the day his office had been working on the speech since "around Thanksgiving."

"Once the new year came and went, there would be a frenzied couple of weeks writing and editing and rewriting, right up until the final speech and then practicing the speech on the last day," Favreau said." (ibid RFERL)

Now the day following Obama's Final State of the Union Address, he and Putin

" ..... spoke by telephone on Wednesday, discussing crises in Ukraine and Syria, the White House said.

"They spent a significant portion of their time discussing the need for the Russians to live up to the commitments that they made in Minsk -- to end their support for separatists that are destabilizing Ukraine right now," said White House spokesman Josh Earnest." (AFP (Yahoo News): 13 January, 2016) (my emphasis)

More significantly,

"Obama told Putin that a key next step in resolving the Ukrainian crisis was for all sides to agree on the modalities of local elections in the Donbas region of Ukraine, the White House said in a statement." (Roberta Rampton (right): Reuters : Wed Jan 13, 2016) (my emphasis)

In other words, all that Obama is saying is that clause 4 of the Minsk2 protocol should now be implemented. 

4. "On the first day after the pullout a dialogue is to start on modalities of conducting local elections in accordance with the Ukrainian legislation and the Law of Ukraine "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts," and also about the future of these districts based on the above-mentioned law. (Wikipedia) (my emphasis)

Recall, however, that Putin, in his recent Bild interview (January 5, 2015, in Sochi), is now demanding that,
 

"..changes to the Ukrainian constitution should be permanent, as is stipulated in the Minsk agreements."? (UNIAN : 11.01.2016) (my emphasis)

In his Bild interview, where he justifies his annexation of Crimea, he also,

"...  blames Ukraine for failing to give autonomy to its eastern regions ... "

Enter Gryslov (right), "a former Russian parliamentary speaker whom President Vladimir Putin handpicked as his personal envoy to the negotiations earlier this month." (Tatiana Kalinovskaya : AFP (Yahoo News) : 13 January, 2016) (my emphasis)

As Tatiana Kalinovskaya explains,

"Ukraine and pro-Russian rebels agreed a new truce deal Wednesday [n.b.: the same day that Obama and Putin had their telephone discussion about Ukraine] that goes into immediate effect and replaces one broken just hours after its signature at the end of last month.

The latest ceasefire was negotiated between Moscow and Kiev envoys in the Belarussian capital Minsk with the help of a senior negotiator from the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE).

Both Ukrainian and OSCE officials said the latest initiative was pushed forward by Boris Gryzlov" (ibid Tatiana Kalinovskaya) (my emphasis)

As I stated in my blog entry of 1 Jan., 2016,

"Putin simply cannot withdraw all his Russian forces, armaments, and rebel-proxies from eastern Ukraine since it would signal a complete failure on his part in the eyes of the Russian people."

It is for this reason that Putin will not fulfill the post election conditions in the rebel held territory of eastern Ukraine of returning the border control between Ukraine and Russia back to Ukraine, as stipulated in Minsk2, and why he is now demanding that changes to the status of eastern Ukraine should become permanent, and not simply last for 3 years.

Recall, also, that the Skype call between Putin, Merkel, Hollande, and Poroshenko on the 30th December 2015, also pushed for elections in eastern Ukraine, as specified in the Minsk2 protocols.

"Special attention was given to the preparation of the Donbas local elections, which are scheduled to take place early next year. All the participants expressed their support for the working group on political issues, which must help define the modalities of the elections between now and the end of January 2016, with the help of the OSCE and the Venice Commission." (Embassy of France in London : 30 December 2015) (my emphasis)

Since these elections

• will come under the intense scrutiny of the international community, 
• be supervised by Ukraine, the EU, Russia, and the OSCE, 

Putin has no other alternative but to demand that changes to the Ukrainian constitution about the 'special status' of the rebel held areas of eastern Ukraine should be permanent, so that their 'special status' can become the next Abkhazia, a region completely controlled by Russia.

Did Obama's speech writers of his final State of the Union address take this into account? Did they ignore the fact that,

".... in his 2016 New Year address, Putin explicitly states,


".... Today I would like to extend special greetings to those of our service members who are fighting international terrorism, defending Russia's national interest at distant frontiers showing their willpower, determination, and staunchness. These are the qualities we need all the time" (cf. video below for full address)

Since he regards the frontiers of the rebel-held teritories in eastern Ukraine (AND IN CRIMEA!) as part of the Russian frontier, will he be willing to fulfill both the letter and the spirit of Minsk2"? (blog entry )

Which brings us back to Obama's remark about,

"Russia is pouring resources in to prop up Ukraine and Syria -- client states they saw slipping away from their orbit"

As Robert Coalson and Tetiana Iakubovych ask,

"... the president's infelicitous comment about Ukraine is all the more difficult to understand. Was Obama referring to Russia's support for former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, the pro-Russian leader who was driven from office by pro-democracy demonstrations in February 2014?

Or did he have in mind Moscow's economic, political, and military support for separatists in eastern Ukraine and Crimea, the Ukrainian Black Sea peninsula that Moscow annexed in March 2014?" (ibid RFERL) (my emphasis)

 

(to be continued)