How much longer can Putin last?

"In Russia's war against Ukraine, the Kremlin assumes time is on its side, expecting Ukraine's economy to deteriorate, and hoping and working for the collapse of the government. But there is one area where they must know time is not on their side. It is in the military arena where — with US and other allied assistance — time is on Ukraine’s side and working against Russia."

So wrote Evelyn N. Farkas (left) in Defense News. (Defense News : April 2, 2016) (my emphasis)

It is also rather interesting that, as Isabela Cocoli reports,

"The White House says the United States will provide Ukraine with an additional $335 million in security assistance.
The new aid was announced Thursday after a meeting between U.S. Vice President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko in Washington." (VOA : April 1st, 2016)

This US aid rather underscores Evelyn N. Farkas's contention that in the military arena, time is on the side of Ukraine.

Putin and his military are well aware of this. It is therefore no co-incidence that, as reported by ATO,

"The militants launched 72 attacks on the Ukrainian troops over the past day. The tensest situation was observed in Avdiyivka [18km north of Donetsk]. Here, the positions of our troops came under 120mm and 82mm mortar fire," reads the statement.
In addition, the militants used the weapons prohibited by the Minsk Agreements to fire at Luhanske (59km north-east of Donetsk), Leninske (22km east of Mariupol), Mayorske (45km north of Donetsk), Zaitseve (67km north-north-east of Donetsk)." (Ukrinform : Sunday 03 April, 2016)

And where was the OSCE, now chaired by that Putinversteher Walter Steinmeier? (below left with Putin at their recent meeting in Moscow March 23, 2016)

On 1st April, 2016, it issued the following report :

"The SMM continued to observe a high number of ceasefire violations in Donetsk region. In Luhansk region the SMM recorded a higher number of ceasefire violations than the previous day. The SMM followed up on reports of shelling. It facilitated the safe passage of civilians between Ukrainian Armed Forces and “LPR” checkpoints in Luhansk region. The Mission encountered freedom of movement restrictions in areas not controlled by the Government, including in border areas*..." (OSCE :  1 April 2016) (my emphasis)

 

In light of Putin's Russian soldiers and rebel proxies in eastern Ukraine accelerating their ceasefire violations, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko is now calling for an Armed OSCE mission in eastern Ukraine.

"One of the most likely and acceptable options to resolve this problem is an international security component in the form of an armed OSCE mission. For this we definitely need an OSCE decision, extension of the mandate, and we are now effectively conducting negotiations with our partners to ensure this security component," the president said at a press conference in Washington." (Interfax-Ukraine : 02.04.2016)

One can imagine Walter Steinmeier saying to himself, "Over My Dead Body will we arm an OSCE mission while I am Chairman of the OSCE", with Putin smiling in the background.

It is not only on the military front that Putin is having to rethink his strategy against Ukraine, but also on the Ukrainian economic front.


Whilst Putin is having to slash his space funding amid his mounting economic woes, and millions more Russians are now living in poverty thanks to his obscene 'kleptocratic' siloviki and hangers-on, 

"Economic growth [in Ukraine] is expected to return in 2016 as private consumption and fixed investment begin to recover. However, ongoing fiscal consolidation as demanded by the IMF bailout will continue to limit growth prospects and the frozen conflict in the east is still clouding the outlook. The FocusEconomics panel sees the economy growing 1.3% this year, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2017, the panel sees the country accelerating to a 2.7% expansion. (Focus Economics : March 8, 2016)

Added to which, the deadlock in the Ukrainian Parliament seems to be on the verge of being resolved.

"During the joint meeting of the two factions on March 31, the Poroshenko Bloc said it would meet the conditions set up by Samopomich in exchange for their signatures under the new coalition agreement.
With Samopomich, the coalition would reach 248 members." (Olga Rudenko : Kyiv Post :
Mar. 31, 2016)

This will pave the way for the release of IMF funding that is currently held on hold.

Furthermore, Ukraine is expanding and consolodating its economic ties with Turkey, as reported by Kama Mustafayeva.

"According to Turkish newspaper Daily Sabah, Turkey's president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and his Ukrainian counterpart, Petro Poroshenko, signed a joint declaration to cooperate on politics, economy, education and tourism in Ankara at a high-level strategic council meeting." (Natural Gas Europe : March 11th, 2016) (my emphasis)

As Hannah Thoburn (below) also reports,

"Turkey and Ukraine now find themselves united by opposition to Russia’s belligerence, as well as by their mutual need to find new markets for the products and industries that Russia now declines to allow within its borders. They are also bound in their concern for Crimea’s Tatars." (Hudson Institute : March 23rd, 2016) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile, one of Putin's closest allies in Africa, President Zuma of South Africa, who signed a controversial and secretive deal with Putin  for Russia's Rosatom to build nuclear reactors in South Africa, has been found guilty of breaking the South African constitution to embelish his private estate at Nkandla to the tune of £13 million stolen from state coffers. This theft elicited from him a public apology but, like Putin the 'kleptocrat', he simply ignored demands for his resignation. (cf. also https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBucRobI4rM)

 And in Brazil,

"Brazil's largest party announced on Tuesday it was leaving President Dilma Rousseff's governing coalition and pulling its members from her government, a departure that sharply raises the odds she could be impeached in a matter of months [on charges of corruption]." (Anthony Boadle : Reuters : Wed Mar 30, 2016)

It would seem that Russia, South Africa, and Brazil, members of the BRICS group of countries, have corrupt presidents that, with the exception of Putin himself, are being hauled before their publics under the Rule of Law.

Putin, the 'Teflon Czar', still survives unscathed because there is no Rule of Law in Russia. He IS the law.

(to be continued)

Putin being handed eastern Ukraine and Ukrainian Crimea on a plate by Steinmeier and Kerry

"Vladimir Putin, marking the anniversary of Russia’s annexation of Crimea, has exhorted workers building a bridge between the Black Sea peninsula and Russia to fulfil a “historic mission” conceived by a Russian tsar." (The Guardian (Reuters): Saturday 19 March 2016)

Putin is now publicly donning the mantle of "Czar" by proclaiming that he is 'fulfilling 'the historic' mission of a previous Czar' to finally link Ukrainian Crimea with a land bridge to Russia. No longer will Russian have to ferry themselves across the sea to reach Ukrainian Crimea.

And to underscore his determination to ensure that this bridge is built, Putin has,

" ..... himself has invoked imagery of capital punishment, threatening "to hang" the person responsible for reconstruction of a highway in Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula forcibly seized by Russia in 2014, if the individual "fails to do the job.
...
"We need a concrete person, whom it would be possible to hang if he fails to do the job," Putin was quoted by the state-run TASS news agency as saying." (Carl Schreck : RFERL : Sunday, March 27, 2016) (my emphasis)

Why is Putin so forcefully invoking the 'death penalty' for anyone who fails to complete the job?

Because, as long ago as  Aug. 13, 2015, Neil MacFarquhar (left) was reporting that,

"Analysts in the Russian news media have suggested the root problem is the fight to control the river of Russian government money flowing into Crimea, with about 700 billion rubles, currently valued at about $10 billion, pledged by 2020. For example, Kremlin auditors announced in June that two-thirds of the funds that Moscow had allocated for road construction in 2014 could not be accounted for." (New York Times)

And today? Nothing, it would seem, has changed.

"Kremlin critics say that much of the billions of dollars being poured into the peninsula is being looted, and senior officials in Crimea’s Moscow-backed government have been targeted in official corruption probes." (ibid Carl Schrech)

Meanwhile that 'Putinversteher' Walter Steinmeier,

" ...  met and negotiated with Russia's President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, (23 March, 2016) who described the talks with his German counterpart as an “intense dialogue.”

At the meeting, the two ministers focused on major global political issues, such as mechanisms for the implementation of the Minsk Agreements in Eastern Ukraine, the prospects for the peace process in Syria, the situation in Libya, the increasing threat of international terrorism, and the future of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), the presidency of which in 2016 will be entrusted to Steinmeier." (Russia Direct : March 27, 2016) (my emphasis)

Walter Steinmeier is under severe pressure from German industry to force Poroshenko to hasitly hold 'elections' in Putin's rebel held area of eastern Ukraine so that there can be,

" ... a return to the old format of trade and economic relations between the two countries. And this is no coincidence – in Germany they appreciate pragmatism, and if one quarter of German companies, in one way or another, have been affected by the “sanctions war,” then of course public opinion cannot remain indifferent.." (ibid Russia Direct) (my emphasis)

 German economic jackboots are readying themselves to walk all over Ukraine, following in the footsteps of the German military jackboots during WWII.

History, it would seem, is repeating itself.

We now have to ask ourselves whether, irrespective of all the 'political' platitudes about Ukraine not being a bargaining chip with Putin over his military actions in Syria, that the politics of Minsk2 and Putin's military intervention in Syria are inextricably linked in a  diplomatic waltz that now also includes none other than John Kerry, US secretary of state, himself.

" Kerry began talks with his Russian counterpart, the foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, on Thursday morning, and is due to meet president Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin later in the day.

“I know many people are very hopeful, Sergei, that these meetings here in Moscow today have an ability to be able to further define and chart the road ahead so that we can bring this conflict in Syria to a close as fast as possible,” Kerry told Lavrov in televised remarks ahead of the meeting." (Shaun Walker : The Guardian : 24 March, 2016) (my emphasis)

And Putin is making sure that his place at the High Table of international politics is secure by continuing to support Bashar Al Assad with his bombers.

The stage is thus being set by Steinmeier and Kerry for Ukraine to be sacrificed on the political alter supplied by Putin himself.

And lest we forget ...

 (to be continued)

Putin acting the Czar over his military strategy in Ukraine and Syria

Today we shall hear the verdict that Putin has already decided upon, and that will be meted out on Nadiya Savchenko.

Yet, but a few days ago, Putin held a pre-arranged ceremony at St. George's Hall in the Kremlin, where Russian Czars celebrated their military victories, proclaming that his mission in Syria was accomplished.

Let us remind ourselves that a similar pre-arranged ceremony was held when Putin declared Ukrainian Crimea, a territory which he invaded and illegally annexed, as part of Russia,.

The 'maskirovka' strategy of Putin's in Ukraine and Syria are the same.

• Putin has left a Russian military force in Syria, and has stated that he could build up his military forces there within hours if needed (cf: Top video)
• Putin has massed an army on the Ukrainian/Russian border whilst Russian soldiers remain in Ukraine

Meanwhile 57 members of the  EU Parliament urged the 'fragrant' Federica Mogherini to impose sanctions against Putin himself, as well as 28 other individuals involved in the kidnapping and incarceration in a Russian prison of Nadiya Savchenko.

Given the fact that the 'fragrant' Federica Mogherini, at the recent meeting of EU Ministers of Foreign Affairs on 14 March 2016, expressed delight that the meeting was,

" ... not focussing on sanctions [against Russia], for once ....",

will Mogherini impose these sanctions against those responsible for the kidnapping and incarceration of Savchenko? 

Will the EU take a leaf out of the book of the Barak Obama, President of the US, to extend sanctions against Russia for another year, as opposed to the EU, who may DROP their sanctions against Putin's Russia when they come up for renewal in the EU in July of this year?

As reported in my previous blog entry

"Tellingly, after a long discussion, sanctions were not discussed by [ EU] foreign ministers [on 14/3/2016], partly because the debate was chaired by Mogherini to avoid exacerbating the divisions."

"While EU governments last week extended asset freezes and travel bans on Russians and Russian companies, there is less consensus on whether to prolong more far-reaching sanctions on Russia's banking, defense and energy sectors from July.

"We cannot take for granted any decision at this stage," Italian Foreign Minister Paolo Gentiloni told reporters after a meeting with his EU peers in Brussels, where Russia's EU policy was discussed for the first time in more than a year." (Reuters :March 14, 2016) (my emphasis)

Hungary, Italy, and Greece are in the forefront of stressing Russia as a trade-partner. This triumvirate have always been soft on Putin, as is the 'fragrant' Mogherini herself.

(to be continued)

Putin's Minsk2 strategy implemented in Syria, and his EU supporters

Now that the 'surprise' over Putin allegedly,

" ... [calling] Syrian President Bashar Assad on Monday to inform him that a troop withdrawal would take place the next day ..." (Pamela Engel : Business Insider : Mar. 14, 2016)

has died down, a more sober reflection of Putin's troop withdrawal from Syria reveals that far from him wishing to 'support' the Syrian peace initiative in Geneva, Putin's Minsk2 strategy over Ukraine is being used as a template by Bashar Al Assad in Geneva.

As reported by Tom Perry,
 
"[Syrian] Foreign Minister Walid al-Moualem (right) confirmed his government's participation [in the Geneva Peace Talks] but said the talks would fail if the opposition had "delusions that they will take power in Geneva that they failed to take in battle"." (Reuters : Sat Mar 12, 2016) (my emphasis)

Similarly with Minsk2,

"German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier blamed both sides [Russia and Ukraine] for a lack of progress he said threatens to blow up into a military escalation.

“Sometimes I have the impression that Moscow and Kiev are oblivious to how serious the situation is,” Steinmeier told reporters in Paris. “The truth is that the positions of the parties to the conflict are far apart.”  (Gregory Viscusi  & Daryna Krasnolutska: Bloomberg Business : March 3, 2016) (my emphasis)

Let us recall that the West was similarly "surprised" when Putin invaded, and then annexed Ukrainian Crimea. Let us also recall that the invasion and takeover of Crimea was planned by Putin as early as 2003, long before the Maidan revolution took place.

So why, now, is Putin allegedly pulling his troops out of Syria?

Is it, as suggested by Andrew Osborn, that,

"The real mission, some say, was to give Russia a say in world affairs.
In the space of six months it has gone from being a pariah state in the West because of its annexation of Crimea and support for pro-Kremlin rebels in eastern Ukraine to being the go-to partner over Syria. Once spurned by Western leaders, it is now a regular interlocutor for both Washington and EU leaders."? (Japan Times (Reuters) : Mar 16, 2016) (my emphasis)

Osborn further reveals that in Syria,

"Putin has in any case hedged his bets.

If he feels his newfound global influence or Assad is threatened he can use the two military bases left behind to rapidly expand the Kremlin’s military footprint." (ibid Osborn) (my emphasis)

In Putin's rebel held territory of eastern Ukraine the same Putin strategy is being employed.

Putin cannot allow the current border between Ukraine and Russia, that is now under his FULL control, to revert back to Ukrainain control since it would directly threaten his ability to continue to destabilise Ukraine and, more importantly, will diminish his current 'strong-man' posture that he has so assiduously cultivated both within Russia and on the international stage.

Gregory Viscusi Jonathan Stearns & John Follain also suggest that,

"European officials have insisted there’s no link between the sanctions imposed on Russia over Ukraine and the Kremlin’s intervention in Syria.

Russia’s move to scale back military support for President Bashar al-Assad is about to test that resolve." (Bloomberg Business : March 15, 2016) (my emphasis)

Already, the 'fragrant' Federica Mogherini (left with Lavrov), the EU’s foreign policy chief, is expected soon to pay Putin a visit.

" ... [e]arlier in the day, another EU source told reporters that the bloc's foreign ministers had discussed during EU Foreign Affairs Council [14 March 2016] the preparations for a possible visit of Mogherini to the Russian capital, but the final decision was pending." (Sputnik : 14.03.2016)

Now recall that in January of last year, the 'fragrant' Federica Mogherini, in a discussion paper (pdf),

" .... suggested EU states could re-engage with Russia on global diplomacy, trade and other issues in return for gradual steps to defuse the crisis over Ukraine." (EurActiv : 15-01-2015) (my emphasis)

However,

"One diplomat from an eastern European country, which counsels against the EU showing weakness toward Moscow, said the paper appeared to reflect an eagerness on the part of countries such as France and Mogherini’s native Italy to set aside the dispute over Ukraine in order to revive profitable business with Russia." (ibid EurActiv) (my emphasis)

Kadri Liik expressed concern about her paper, writing that,

"The most worrying problem with the paper is that it betrays a profound lack of understanding of the driving factors of Russia’s foreign policy and their relative importance." (ECFR : 20th January, 2015)

And at the recent meeting of EU Ministers of Foreign Affairs on 14 March 2016, the 'fragrant' Mogherini expressed delight that the meeting was,

" ... not focussing on sanctions [against Russia], for once ...." 

Is it any wonder that Robin Emmott and Gabriela Baczynska report that,

"Tellingly, after a long discussion, sanctions were not discussed by foreign ministers, partly because the debate was chaired by Mogherini to avoid exacerbating the divisions."

"While EU governments last week extended asset freezes and travel bans on Russians and Russian companies, there is less consensus on whether to prolong more far-reaching sanctions on Russia's banking, defense and energy sectors from July.

"We cannot take for granted any decision at this stage," Italian Foreign Minister Paolo Gentiloni told reporters after a meeting with his EU peers in Brussels, where Russia's EU policy was discussed for the first time in more than a year." (Reuters :March 14, 2016) (my emphasis)

Hungary, Italy, and Greece are in the forefront of stressing Russia as a trade-partner. This triumvirate have always been soft on Putin, as is the 'fragrant' Mogherini herself. 

To even suggest that she may pay Putin a visit, "...when the EU is demanding that Russia release Ukrainian pilot Nadezhda Savchenko, who is on a hunger strike, on humanitarian grounds (ibid  Robin Emmott and Gabriela Baczynska) rather indicates on which side her sympathies lay.

Yet just last Sunday, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said that,

"Today Russia faces a choice between the continuation of economically damaging sanctions and fully meeting its obligations under Minsk,". (ibid Robin Emmott and Gabriela Baczynska)

 Why, therfore, was the 'fragrant' Mogherini so pleased that sanctions against Putin and his cronies were not discussed at the recent EU Ministers of Foreign Affair meeting?

  

(to be continued)

Putin cannot be saved by that 'Putinversteher', German Foreign Minister Walter Steinmeier, the new OSCE Chairperson-in-Office

Last week, NATO's top commander, General Philip Breedlove, warned that,

".... Russian military activity in eastern Ukraine is increasing.
...
General Philip Breedlove also warned of ‘disturbing trends' – including more sniper fire and shelling on the front line."Now what I would tell you is in the last couple of weeks this has changed in the activity along the line of contact is very much increase" (UT : Mar. 2, 2016) (my emphasis)

At the same time,

"A UN official has called for effective border controls to stop the suspected flow of weapons into Ukraine from Russia.

Addressing a press conference in Geneva after presenting a UN report on the human rights situation in Ukraine Thursday, Gianni Magazzeni highlighted the fact that "humanitarian aid" trucks entering Ukraine from Russia were not being inspected for illegal arms." (World Bulletin : 04 March 2016) (my emphasis)

Let us now recall that on 15 February 2016, the Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu (right) said that,

"Ukraine was one of the backbone countries for stability in the Eurasia region.

The premier [also] said that Turkey sees the importance of stability and territorial integrity of Ukraine. He noted that Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Syria remained under threat by Moscow." (World Bulletin : 04 March 2016) (my emphasis)

It is therefore no coincidence that,

 

"Ukraine and Turkey’s navies launched a joint military exercise on Monday, as Kiev and Ankara continue to grow closer in the face of their respective stand-offs with Russia." (Damien Sharkov : Newsweek : 8/3/16) (my emphasis) 

 

And whilst Turkey and Ukraine are currently conducting joint naval exercises, 

"NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and Ukrainian Minister of Defence Stepan Poltorak met on Tuesday (8 March 2016) for talks on Ukraine’s progress in moving forward with key defence reforms and how NATO can best support this effort. (NATO News : 08 Mar. 2016) (my emphasis)

Richard Tomkins also informs us that,

" Ukraine's Ukroboronprom's Mayak business unit has delivered its initial batch of new 120mm Molot mortars to the country's military." (UPI : March 7, 2016)

But the most powerful western military signal that is being sent to Putin, in the face of his 'stealth' buildup of forces in occupied eastern Ukraine, lies in the fact that,

"The U.S. Army plans to bolster its presence in Europe next year with the long-term deployment of its best armor, tank-killing helicopters and infantry vehicles capable of destroying Russian armored personnel carriers.

The service will increase the prepositioning of combat equipment that soldiers surging from the U.S. could use in a crisis, as the U.S. and NATO work to deter an assertive Russia in the aftermath of President Vladimir Putin’s intervention in Ukraine." (Anthony Capaccio : Bloomberg Business : March 9, 2016) (my emphasis)

Unlike two years ago, when Putin invaded and annexed Ukrainian Crimea and then had his Russian soldiers invade the territory of eastern Ukraine, without the west immediately arming the then rag-tag Ukrainian army, the situation has now somewhat changed.

The Ukrainian army has now become a formidable force, even in the face of not being supplied with lethal weaponry from the west. It is now backed up and supported by NATO, the EU, Turkey, and Canada, to name but a few. 

Even the UN is now calling for the effective control of the border between Russia and Ukraine to stem the avalanche of Russian weaponry that is once again flowing into the rebel-held territory of eastern Ukraine.

Why, therefore, is Putin now siding with German Foreign Minister, Walter Steinmeier, and  French Foreign Minister, Jean-Marc Ayrault (left), over the immediate implementing of the Minsk2 elections in the rebel-held territory of eastern Ukraine, even though Russian arms are flowing across the Ukrainian border that is still being controlled by Putin and his forces?

Could it be that Putin rests easy as his Russian soldiers and rebel proxies in eastern Ukraine are being supplied with more heavy weaponry because his Putinversteher Walter Steinmeier is now the OSCE Chairperson-in-Office, the very OSCE that has to monitor both the 'ceasefire' AND the border between Russia and Ukraine?

Is Steinmeier's 'shrill' call for the immediate implementation of the Minsk2 elections directly related to the fact that Natalie Jaresko (left), Ukraine’s US-born finance minister, could during this week become the new Ukrainian Prime Minister?

"[She] has held talks on leading a new technocratic, reformist government amid intense high-level political manoeuvring.

Ms Jaresko was offered the prime minister’s position more than 10 days ago by representatives of President Petro Poroshenko and Arseny Yatseniuk, the current premier. Both offered the support of their parliamentary parties and freedom from interference, said people familiar with the matter." (Neil Buckley and Roman Olearchyk : Financial Times : March 8, 2016) (cf. also: Ukraine Today)

Ms Jaresko would be more than a match for Putin's mouthpiece, that 'dyed-in-the-wool' Soviet Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, and even against Walter Steinmeier himself. 

Putin will, no doubt, use her appointment as propaganda efforts to portray Kiev as a puppet of Washington. 

But the effects of his propaganda machinery is on the wane. No longer is the international community sucked in by the slickness of Russia Today (RT). Ironically, his military adventure in Syria, aiding and abbeting the Assad regime, has taken the shine off his billion dollar propaganda apparatus.

This is best illustrated by the international outcry over Nadezhda Savchenko, who told a Russian court today that,

" .... her trial was a farce and that Russia was ruled by “a totalitarian regime and a dictator-tyrant.” The outspoken Ukrainian military pilot, held in Russia since 2014, spared no blows as she used her final statement to warn she would return to her home country dead or alive.
...
"I want the whole democratic, civilized world to understand that Russia is a third world country with a totalitarian regime and a dictator-tyrant who spits on human rights,” Savchenko told the court" (Howard Amos : International Business Times : 09/03/16) (cf. also: Mail Online)

P

(to be continued)

Germany and France selling out eastern Ukraine to Putin

Vitaliy Portnikov wrote on 25th February that,

"Putin has failed to achieve the federalization of Ukraine through war. Now he wants to achieve it through peace." (EuroMaidan Press : 2016/02/25) (my emphasis)

Putin’s crony Viktor Medvedchuk (left: with Putin) [.......] spoke not about the implementation of the Minsk agreements but about the “spirit of Minsk.”

"The “spirit of Minsk” is a model for the coexistence of the Russian controlled regions of the Donbas with the rest of Ukraine. It consists of bringing in a new government into the “people’s republics” with which (Ukrainians) could talk without being accused of dealing with militants. Medvedchuk calls this proposed new command for the Donbas a “temporary government,” but it can turn out to be the first step in the transformation of Ukraine into a real federation." (ibid EuroMaidan Press) (my emphasis)

This being the case, is it any wonder that Putin is suddenly,

"....prepared to support the election proposal presented by Germany and France"?
 .....
French Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault, who described the four-hour meeting [last week between the foreign ministers of France, Russia, Germany, and Ukraine] as "frank, direct, and without holding back," announced that the talks had underlined the importance of adopting an electoral law to hold elections in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region in June. (RFE/RL : March 04, 2016)

 However,

"Klimkin said Ukraine continues to insist that all commitments for a cease-fire and withdrawal of weapons be carried out before such elections are held.
"We must be able to ensure these elections are organized safely; we need our territory to be secure. Without security we can't deliver on anything further," Klimkin added." (ibid RFE/RL) (my emphasis)

And whilst 'Putinversteher' Walter Steinmeier, and  French Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault are pushing for the holding of elections in the rebel-held territories of eastern Ukraine by June of this year, thus supporting Putin's Maskirovaka strategy strategy of stealthily 'federalising Ukraine, UNIAN reports that,

"The combined Russian-separatist forces attacked Ukrainian army positions in eastern Ukraine 57 times in the past 24 hours, including 46 times in the Donetsk sector and 11 times in the Mariupol sector, the press center of the Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO) reported on Friday." (UNIAN : 04.03.2016) (cf. also: UNIAN : 06.03.2016) (my emphasis)

Even the UN is expressing concern that,

"The risk of re-escalation of hostilities remains high, the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine said in its report." (UNIAN : 03.03.2016) (Full UN Report) 

 

Why, therefore, if Putin is now siding with Steinmeier and  Jean-Marc Ayrault over the holding of elections in the rebel-held territory of eastern Ukraine, is he continuing to build a Russian military base on the Russian border close to Ukraine's Kharkiv region?

And one has to ask the further question;

Were Walter Steinmeier and Jean-Marc Ayrault aware of the fact whilst they were siding with Putin's 'dyed-in-the-wool-Soviet' foreign minister Sergei Lavrov that,

"Military clashes between the Ukrainian military and the enemy sabotage groups occurred in the Mariupol direction resulting in 30 pro-Russian militants being killed, according to the presidential administration’s speaker for the Anti-Terrorist Operation, Andriy Lysenko, who spoke at a briefing Saturday."? (UNIAN : 05.03.2016)

 

What is even more significant is that French foreign minister Jean-Marc Ayrault (right) seems to simply dismiss US diplomat, Daniel Baer, who represents Washington at the OSCE, and who stated that,

“combined-Russian separatist forces” in east Ukraine, in the run-up to the Paris talks, escalated fighting to its “highest level since August 2015” and that Russia “continues to flout” Minsk provisions on withdrawing troops and armour. 

“This violence … calls into question Russia’s and the separatists’ commitment to full implementation of the Minsk agreements,” he said. " ( Andrew Rettman : EuObserver : 4 March 2016) (my emphasis)

 

And whilst Steinmeier and Jean-Marc Ayrault continue to support Putin in his call for quick elections in the rebel held territory of eastern Ukraine,

"When Russian-backed forces seized public buildings in eastern Ukraine, unleashing the ongoing conflict, many Ukrainians thought the crisis would not last very long.  Two years later, with western sanctions and two peace agreements failing to stop Russia’s intervention, the war continues and many of those displaced see little hope that they will get to go home anytime soon." (Luis Ramirez : VOA : March 03, 2016) (my emphasis)

 

And lest we forget,

"About 2,000 people rallied on Independence Square in Kiev on Sunday to demand that Russia release Ukrainian pilot Nadezhda Savchenko, with hundreds then marching to the Russian Embassy to vent their anger by throwing eggs and rocks at the building." (AP (Mail Online) :  6 March 2016)

(to be continued)

Putin being given breathing space

Luis Ramirez rather neatly sums up the current frustrations boiling over in Ukraine. He reports that,

"The Ukrainian government this month narrowly survived a no-confidence vote in parliament, and frustrations are showing early signs of boiling over again as patience wears thin among those who want corruption and economic disparity gone quickly, and for good." (VOA : February 26, 2016) my emphasis)

Those internal Ukrainain frustrations have their growing international counterparts as well.

For the first time even the Chinese are publicly calling for international support for a political settlement of the war between Putin's Russia and Ukraine. As reported by the  Xinhua News Agency,

"A Chinese envoy to the United Nations Monday highlighted the importance of political settlement in solving the Ukraine issue and called for support from the international community.

A comprehensive solution of the Ukraine issue must follow the general direction of political settlement, said Liu Jieyi (left), China's permanent representative to the UN at a Security Council meeting briefed by the Chairperson-in-Office of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). (BruDirect : Tuesday, 01 March 2016) (my emphasis)

Liu, however, is hedging China's call by not wishing to ruffle Putin's feathers, nor wanting to jeopardise China's huge investments in Ukrainian agricultural land.

Liu thus added that

".... it is imperative to fully take into account the legitimate rights and demands of all regions and ethnic groups within Ukraine while paying good attention to the legitimate concerns of all relevant parties." (ibid Xinhua News Agency) (my emphasis)
 

Meanwhile, that Putinversteher, Walter Steinmeier, continues to pressure Ukraine to hold those Minsk2 'elections' in Putin-controlled eastern Ukraine, whilst yet again simply glossing over the fact that such elections would be totally meaningless unless :-

• Ukraine, together with the OSCE and possibly the UN, are in full control of the border between Russia and Ukraine to prevent a flood of Russians entering eastern Ukraine and then claiming that they are residents of Ukraine
• such elections to be held according to Ukrainian law 
• a strict system of identification of valid Ukrainian electors should be put into place so that Putin's thousands of 'little green men' currently in eastern Ukraine cannot palm themselves off as valid Ukrainian citizens  
• Putin's rebel-proxies and Russian soldiers (who would no doubt by then have divested themselves of their 'little green men Russian uniforms) should not hinder any Ukrainian canvassers or candidates from freely having access to ALL of the territories of eastern Ukraine that Putin's proxies and Russian soldiers now control
• these elections should be held under the watchful eyes of an army of international observers, including EU observers

Bearing these five elementary points in mind, is it any wonder that,

"Speaking at a news conference in Washington with U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, Frank-Walter Steinmeier conceded that the readiness of the government in Kiev and pro-Russian separatists to move forward with Minsk was "very limited". (Noah Barkin : Reuters (Yahoo News) : 1st March, 2016) (my emphasis)

Furthermore that, 

"Kiev's struggles to get an election law for eastern Ukraine through parliament and an increase in ceasefire violations in the region have raised fears that the deal, sealed one year ago in the Belarus capital, could collapse, sparking a new wave of fighting."? (ibid Noah Barkin) (my emphasis)

Andreas Umland (right) perceptively reports that,

"Obviously, neither Russian aggression nor economic difficulties should excuse the Ukraine government’s slow pace of reforms. 

Ukraine’s friends should continue to press Kiev hard for cleaner government and deeper economic reform. 

But the West should recognize that the country’s exhausted civil society and its beleaguered administration are operating in an environment of exceptional stress and myriad distractions. 

Western leaders and policymakers must thus maintain the pressure on Moscow to abandon its reckless hybrid war. Had Russia respected the sovereignty, integrity, and European choice of its “brother nation,” we would, already today, have a very different Ukraine." (Foreign Policy : February 26, 2016) (my emphasis)

It would seem, however, that from Christine Largarde (Head of the IMF) witholding IMF money for Ukraine, to vice-president Biden, to Walter Steinmeier, to President Hollande; the pressure is being placed on Poroshenko to implement Minsk2 to the mutual exclusion of pressure being placed on Putin to do likewise. 

In fact, the pressure on Putin is so lukewarm that he can simply sit back and let the west do his job of dismembering Ukraine and ensuring that Ukraine's political structure fails.

And yet the EU is, during this Ukraine Week, vowing its support for Ukraine.

"This 3-day high-level conference is bringing together MEPs, national and Ukrainian MPs to share experience on good parliamentary practice, law-making and representation.
 

The event "demonstrates strong solidarity between the European Parliament and the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine", said Mr Schulz. "You need our support and you will receive it." (EU Parliament : 01-03-2016) (my emphasis)

And then we have the EU caveat that,

"However recommendations to reform the VRU should not be put into the filing cabinet, but implemented", he added." (ibid EU Parliament)

But I shall let Vitali Klitschko have the last word.

(to be continued)

Putin, Ukraine, Syria, and ....... Jamala

Olga Tanas (below) informs us that,

"With employers already hunkering down after oil’s collapse and the crash in the ruble to record lows last month, the prolonged downturn is giving way to adjustments in the labor market that are further squeezing household finances. As expectations fade for a quick turnaround after the biggest drop in consumption under President Vladimir Putin, the challenge for authorities is how to contain discontent without further straining the budget before parliamentary elections later this year." (Bloomberg Business : February 17, 2016) (my emphasis)

Similarly, on the international front, Neil MacFarquhar reports that,

"The partial truce that Russia and the United States have thrashed out in Syria capped something of a foreign policy trifecta for President Vladimir V. Putin, with the Kremlin strong-arming itself into a pivotal role in the Middle East, Ukraine floundering and the European Union developing cracks like a badly glazed pot.

Beyond what could well be a high point for Mr. Putin, however, lingering questions about Russia’s endgame arise in all three directions." (New York Times : Feb. 23, 2016) (my emphasis)

These lingering doubts include:- 

• Mr. Assad, who has grown bolder because of Russian and Iranian support, recently said he planned to reassert control over all of Syria.....That would put Russia in the unpredictable position of supporting Damascus through the long, most likely bloody slog needed to dislodge the Islamic militants. (ibid  Neil MacFarquhar) (my emphasis)
• Another wild card for Moscow is its increasingly hostile relationship with Turkey, after a Russian warplane was shot down in November after briefly violating Turkish airspace. (ibid  Neil MacFarquhar)
• The Russian economy is in dire straits, as described by Olga Tanas, and no matter how much Putin may try to gloss over this fact, Aleksandr Shumilin, a senior Middle East expert at the Russian Academy of Sciences, warns that whilst Putin may be feeling a 'flush of success' over  his strategy in Syria, this feeling of 'success' “will depend on the situation, which is very complicated at the moment” and which could add a further and unacceptable drain on the already faltering Russian economy.

These lingering doubts over Putin's endgame in Syria are further complicated by the fact that,

"US President Barack Obama [  ] told Russia's Vladimir Putin on Monday about the importance of "permitting... the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) full access to the conflict area, including the international border." (Beatrice Le Bohec : AFP (Yahoo News) : 23 Feb. 2016) (my emphasis)

Added to which, even that Putinversteher, Walter Steinmeier (right), has had to admit that,

"... it was unacceptable "that there are so many violations of the ceasefire [currently in eastern Ukraine]" (ibid Beatrice Le Bohec)

Yet Steinmeier seems to be almost totally deaf to the call by both Poroshenko and Barack Obama that,

"... [Ukraine] cannot conduct polls in separatist regions under international laws unless its porous border with Russia is secured first." (ibid Beatrice Le Bohec)

Furthermore, this proposal of both Poroshenko and US President Obama is,

"...... stiffly opposed by [Putin's] insurgency leaders." (ibid Beatrice Le Bohec)

Neither Steinmeier, nor his French counterpart French Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault (left), can both 'have their cake and eat it'!

Pressurising Poroshenko to fully adopt the Minsk2 proposals about the implementation of the 'special status' of Putin's rebel-held territory in eastern Ukraine, as well as for the holding of elections in this war zone without first securing the border between Russia and Ukraine, is the strongest indication that the hidden agenda of Steinmeier and  Jean-Marc Ayrault is nothing more nor less than to get the sanctions against Russia lifted.

They are simply supporting the goals of Putin to have both the sanctions against Russia lifted, as well as implementing Putin's 'federal breakup' of Ukraine.

In similar vein,

"In Syria, Russia achieved its main goal of shoring up the government of President Bashar al-Assad, long the Kremlin’s foremost Arab ally. Yet its ultimate objectives remain murky, not least navigating a graceful exit from the messy conflict." (ibid Neil MacFarquhar) (my emphasis)

As Josh Wood so aptly describes it,

"While the breakthrough [in Syria] would represent the first countrywide pause in fighting between the rebels and the [Syrian] regime in nearly five years of war, the same problems that have derailed all recent truce plans so far still remain.

There is no guarantee that the government and its allies will refrain from attacking rebel forces and it seems unlikely that the opposition’s preconditions for a deal will be met." (The National World : February 24, 2016) (my emphasis)

Neither is there any guarantee that Putin's Russian soldiers and rebel-forces will refrain from attacking Ukrainian forces if the border between Ukraine and Russia is not sealed BEFORE the implementation of the Minsk2 proposals that elections be held in eastern Ukraine, and that eastern Ukraine be given 'special status'.

Perhaps the most obvious indication of Putin's mindset about Ukraine is best illustrated by the fact that,

"Russia's State Duma have asked the organisers of the Eurovision song contest to bar Ukrainian singer Jamala from performing her song about Joseph Stalin's mass deportation of Crimean Tatars in 1944." (KyivPost : Feb. 22, 2016) (my emphasis)

(to be continued)