What Putin gains on the political roundabout he is about to lose on the economic downturn of the Russian economy.

It should come as no surprise that, as reported by Molly O’Toole and Reid Standish (left),

" .. [I]nvited to meet with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly this week, Trump’s campaign didn’t even bother to send Kiev an RSVP.

A spokesperson for the Ukrainian presidential administration told Foreign Policy they reached out to both Trump and his Democratic rival, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, to meet with Poroshenko. According to the official, only Clinton said yes, sitting down with the president on Monday. The Trump campaign did not give a clear answer." (Foreign Policy : September 20, 2016) (my emphasis)

As David Corn and Hannah Levintova have reported,

"How did an alleged and notorious Russian mobster [Alimzhan Tokhtakhounov (right)] connected to an illegal international gambling ring run out of Trump Tower end up as a special guest at a Donald Trump event in Moscow in 2013?
....
Trump's associations with Russia have sparked assorted controversies. He has praised Russian leader Vladimir Putin and made a series of contradictory remarks regarding his relationship with the autocrat." (Mother Jones : Sep. 14, 2016) (my emphasis)

Kurt Eichenwald is correct when he poses the question,

"[W]ill Trump instead choose to be the most conflicted president in American history, one whose business interests will constantly jeopardize the security of the United States?" (Newsweek :  14 September, 2016) (my emphasis)

One can only guess at what a Trump presidency will do for Putin in his war with Ukraine.

This is not the only frightening prospect that Poroshenko now has to confront.

The gains of the far right Alternative for Germany (AfD) political party has,

"... won the highest share of the vote for the far-Right in Berlin since the Second World War ..
...
The Berlin gains represent new territory for the AfD, most of whose previous successes have been in impoverished areas of the former communist east." (Justin Huggler : The Telegraph : 18 September 2016) (my emphasis)

 

In October 2014 I wrote that,

"It is rather ironic that the Kremlin and Putin's propaganda machines are constantly propagating the lie about 'fascists and neo-Nazis' being elected to the Ukrainian parliament, whilst at the same time rolling out the red carpet for neo-Nazi and right-wing European organizations.

Thus it was that Marine Le Pen, the neo-Nazi leader of France, was treated like a cabinet minister by top Russian politicians, whilst the British Fascist leader of the BNP party endorsed Russian elections in Russia. As John Vinocur has commented," Marine Le Pen wants to neuter the EU as a political force. The Kremlin couldn't ask for a better ally." (my emphasis) (blog: Thursday, 30 October 2014)

As also reported by Melanie Amann and Pavel Lokshin,

"Marcus Pretzell (right) is waiting. He's a member of the European Parliament with the right-wing populist party Alternative for Germany (AfD) 
...
"We at Alternative for Germany represent not only a threat to the Ukrainian government, but also to the German government," he proudly announces. The audience applauds. He then goes on to say that good economic relations with Russia "are in the interest of the German people" and that sanctions should be lifted immediately. The applause grows." (Der Spiegel : April 27, 2016) (my emphasis)

Throughout the EU, Putin has assiduously cultivated links with BOTH the Far Right and the Far Left. 

How deep his financial support for these political parties goes, particularly for Far Right parties, can be evidenced by the fact that in 2015, Marine Le Pen's 'Front Nationale',

" ...  may have been given a multi-million-euro loan by a Russian bank as a "reward" for backing President Putin's annexation of Crimea, according to text messages released by Russian hackers.
...
The loan was the first instalment of Russian-backed loans of 40m euros that would fund the cash-strapped Front National in the run-up to the 2017 presidential campaign, Mediapart reported. " (David Chazan : Telegraph : 04 Apr 2015) (my emphasis)

Putin is now beginning to reap rich political dividends from his ongoing support for Right-Wing and Left-Wing parties in the EU.

Already we have, following Brexit, Matteo Renzi (Italian Prime Minister),

"..[saying] that he was "not satisfied with the conclusions on growth and immigration" and therefore could not share the press conference held by Merkel and Hollande." (Ansa :16 September 2016) (my emphasis)

At this stage Putin may not be overtly concerned about the outcome of the American Presidential elections. A Trump victory will simply be 'the cherry on the cake', so to speak.

The fact that deep divisions are beginning to appear amongst the leading Euro economies in the EU, and that populist Right Wing parties in the EU are now in the ascendent, is bringing to fruition his long cherished aim of bringing down the EU.

These divisions, however, may not be enough to protect him from the Russian people themselves.

It was a foregone conclusion the Putin would be victorious in the Duma elections.

These 'crushing gains' that he achieved should, however, be viewed against the fact that,

"Less than half Russia's registered voters turned up at polling station in this election, meaning that the new Duma was chosen by less than 50 percent of Russians. In some regions, less than one third of registered voters participated. Turnout in Russia as a whole was at 47.9 percent." (Meduza : 19 september 2016) (my emphasis)

In the West, such figures would be a relection of 'voter apathy', more than anything else.

In Putin's Russia it represents something more than mere 'apathy'. And Putin is well aware of this.

Winter is approaching and,

"After almost two years in recession, the country's rainy day fund has shrunk to just $32.2 billion this month, according to the Russian Finance Ministry. It was $91.7 billion in September 2014, just before oil prices started to collapse.

And it's getting worse. Analysts expect the fund will shrink to just $15 billion by the end of this year and dry up completely soon after that." (Ivana Kottasova : CNN Money : September 16, 2016) (my emphasis) 
 
How will Putin cope with the glaring economic facts that has already thrown millions of Russians into increasingly dire poverty? (cf: Germain Moyon : France24: 21 September 2016)
 
(to be continued)

Putin is now determined to destroy the Ukrainian economic recovery

As the Duma elections in Putin's Russia looms large in his calendar, suddenly we find that,

"The leaders of the separatists in Ukraine's eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk (left: Zakharchenko and Plotnitskiy) have announced a unilateral cease-fire starting at midnight on September 14...
....
But it was not immediately clear why the Russia-backed separatists made the announcement more than two weeks after the sides had already agreed to another temporary truce.

The announcement comes a few hours after Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said that he expects the parliament to vote soon on constitutional amendments granting autonomy to eastern Ukraine." (RFERL : Thursday, September 15, 2016) (my emphasis)

The Putinversteher Walter Steinmeier, together with French Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault, are 'cock-a-hoop' over this developement, in particular Steinmeier, current Chairman of the OSCE.

As reported by Pavel Polityuk and Andrea Shalal,

The German and French foreign ministers said on Wednesday an attempt to revive a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine from midnight could set the scene for agreement next week on further peace moves.
...
The agreement is expected at a regular meeting on Tuesday of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) with both sides in the conflict. It would be monitored and verified by OSCE observers.
...
If the ceasefire holds and the agreement is signed as expected, the foreign ministers of France, Germany, Ukraine and Russia could meet in New York next week on the sidelines of a meeting of the United Nations General Assembly. (Mail Online (Reuters) : 14 September 2016) (my emphasis)  (right: Ayrault, Klimkin, and Steinmeier. Klimkin announcing new ceasefire in Donbas)

Let us now cast our minds back to April of 2015.

As reported by Alec Luhn,

"President Petro Poroshenko has endorsed a referendum on the federalisation of Ukraine, jumpstarting the reforms foreseen by the peace plan to end the conflict with Russia-backed rebels in the country’s east.
.....
But analysts and politicians in Kiev argue such a move would weaken the country and allow Moscow undue influence in its politics.
....
Poroshenko left no doubt where he stood on the issue, calling federalisation an “infection” that he hinted was being forced on the country by foreign powers, apparently referring to Russia. (The Guardian : Monday 6 April 2015) (my emphasis) (left: Poroshenko flanked by Volodymyr Groysman, left, and Arseniy Yatsenyuk in 2015)
 
Now against the fact that the Ukrainian parliament will vote soon on constitutional amendments granting autonomy to eastern Ukraine, the past few weeks have also seen that,

"Russia has deployed 70 replacement troops to reinforce the 9th separate assault motorized rifle regiment of the Marines Corps (militant-held Novoazovsk) of the 1st Army Corps (Donetsk) of Russia's Armed Forces and 50 replacement troops to enhance the 7th separate motorized rifle brigade (militant-held Luhansk ) of the 2nd Army Corps (Luhansk) of Russia's Armed Forces" (UT:  Aug. 8, 2016) 

As also reported by Chas Danner,

"Russia appears to be preparing for a new military offensive in Ukraine, according to the Institute for the Study of War, which notes that since August 5 there has been an ongoing Russian military buildup on the northern, eastern, and southern Ukrainian borders, allowing it “to threaten or conduct military operations into Ukraine from multiple directions, increasing Ukraine’s vulnerability to Russian or Russia-backed separatist forces.” (New York Magazine : August 13, 2016) (my emphasis)

Which raises the rather fundamental question viz.

"Since Minsk2 specifies that immediately after a full ceasefire there should be:

• Pull-out of all heavy weapons by both sides to equal distance with the aim of creation of a security zone on minimum 50 kilometres (31 mi) apart for artillery of 100mm calibre or more, and a security zone of 70 kilometres (43 mi) for multiple rocket launchers (MRLS) and 140 kilometres (87 mi) for MLRS Tornado-S, Uragan, Smerch, and Tochka U tactical missile systems:

• for Ukrainian troops, from actual line of contact;
• for armed formations of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine, from the contact line in accordance with the Minsk Memorandum as of 19 September 2014 The pullout of the above-mentioned heavy weapons must start no later than the second day after the start of the ceasefire and finish within 14 days.(Wikipedia)

why is Putin continuing to reinforce his Russian soldiers and rebel-proxies in the Donbas with yet more Russian soldiers and more heavy military equipment"????

Is Putin actually following in the footsteps of The Grand Old Duke of York nusery rhyme, who marched his men up the hill and then down again?

I rather think not!

As reported by Damien Sharkov,

"Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko called on the EU and the world’s biggest economies not to recognize Russia’s upcoming parliamentary elections, which treat Crimea as Russian territory.

This month Russians will elect 450 lawmakers to parliament, for the first time since Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014. The U.N. does not recognize the Russian government in Crimea as legitimate and Ukraine has protested any moves or statements that treat Russia’s authority on Crimea as anything but an illegal occupation." (Newsweek : 13 September, 2016) (my emphasis)

Added to which, this sudden announcement of a unilateral ceasefire by Putin's rebels in the Donbas, Zakharchenko and Plotnitskiy, signifies more than anything else that Putin is angered by the fact that,

"Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko on Thursday welcomed a decision by the International Monetary Fund to release additional aid worth $1 billion to Kiev, saying it showed that the world recognises that Ukraine was carrying out reforms.

The IMF's decision would also help keep the Ukrainian hryvnia currency stable and maintain macroeconomic stabilisation, Poroshenko said, adding that a Russian attempt to undermine the IMF's decision had failed." (Natalia Zinets : Reuters : Wed Sep 14, 2016) (my emphasis)

 As also reported by New China News,

"In August, official data showed that the Ukrainian gross domestic product (GDP) went up by 1.3 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2016, after rising 0.1 percent in the first quarter.

Although the figure was lower than the preliminary official estimates of 2.3-percent GDP growth in the second quarter, it has indicated that the economy had emerged from the crisis that started in the first quarter of 2014." (New China News : Xinhua: 31 August, 2016) (my emphasis)

By contrast,

• Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development has announced a new “baseline plus” plan for the Russian economy, despite concerns that the country's original economic strategy remains unbalanced, the Vedomosti business daily reported Tuesday. (Moscow Times : Aug. 30 2016) (my emphasis)
• The baseline plan will see the country's deficit rise significantly above the 3.2 percent target set out by the Finance Ministry. “This kind of policy means that demand will shrink, funds will become exhausted, and there will be nothing to eat,” the source said. (ibid Moscow Times)

Which leaves us with the question,

"Does Putin now want to hand back a totally devastated Donbas to Ukraine in the hope that this will destroy the current green shoots of recovery in the Ukrainian economy"?

(to be continued)

Has Putin really "backtracked" on assigning Minsk2 to the dustbin of history?

The dust is beginning to settle on the G20 summit in China and, as per usual, many "behind-the-scenes" meetings were held, including those between Merkel, Putin, and Hollande, as well as that between President Obama and Putin.

Putin had hoped that this summit, showing himself hobnobbing with the leaders of the world and, hopefully, "cutting deals" with them over Ukraine by playing his "Syria Card", would once again propel him positively onto the world stage and boost his image on Russian State Controlled TV just 2 weeks ahead of the Duma elections in Russia..

 

Unfortunately for him, things did not quite work out as he expected.

As Barney Henderson reports,

"Barack Obama and Vladimir Putin held what the US president described as a “candid, blunt and businesslike” meeting on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Hangzhou, China, on Monday.


Photographs suggested that the exchange between two of the most powerful men in the world had been frosty, and Mr Obama said afterwards that "gaps of trust" between the rival powers had hindered negotiations." (The Telegraph : 5 September 2016) (my emphasis)

Not quite what Putin was expecting from President Obama, soon to retire in two months time from the Oval Office.

Putin's gambit that he could "cut a deal" with President Obama over Ukraine by playing his "Syria card", just before President Obama leaves the Oval Office, fell on stony ground. (cf also: UT Aug. 18, 2016)

Now Angela Merkel had to tread rather carefully in light of President Obama's “candid, blunt and businesslike” meeting with Putin.

Her meeting with Putin was rather less frosty,  following in the footsteps of the outdated 'Ostpolitik' of Willy Brandt.

During this meeting she supported President Obama with her renewed public appeal to Putin,

"....to enable a cease-fire in Syria and humanitarian access to the city of Aleppo. Merkel said Monday that "this is of extreme urgency." 

She said she had made that clear during a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin Sunday night on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit" (Mail Online (Associated Press) : 5 September 2016)

On Ukraine, however, the same 'Ostpolitik' mantra about the implementation of Minsk2 was trotted out.

As reported by UNIAN,

"German government spokesman Steffen Seibert said Putin and Merkel also spoke [for nearly two hours late on September 4] "very concretely" about the conflict in Ukraine and how to implement the Minsk agreement, a cease-fire and peace plan aimed at resolving the war in eastern Ukraine." (UNIAN : 05 September 2016)

Let us recall, however, that Putin himself, after that FSB-staged sabotage attack in Ukrainian Crimea, had already relegated the Normandy Format meetings and Minsk2 to the dustbin of history.

As reported by TASS, 

MOSCOW, August 10. / TASS /. Vladimir Putin considers pointless to hold a meeting in the Normandy format on the background of attempts to arrange a terrorist attack saboteurs Ukrainian in Crimea. President assured that more serious measures will be taken to ensure security on the peninsula, and Moscow will not leave unanswered the killing of its military saboteurs to Ukraine." (Tass : August 10, 2016) [Google Translate]

No doubt, those Minsk2 defined "elections" that are supposed to be held in the warzone of Donbas was a central feature of that 2 hour meeting she had with Putin on the sidelines of G20.

And it should therefore come as no surprise that,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin said Monday that he will likely “have to meet” again with Ukraine’s president for peace talks, despite pulling out of “senseless” negotiations last month.

 
Putin said he and the leaders of France and Germany—Francois Hollande and Angela Merkel—discussed Ukraine over the weekend, when he was urged to return to negotiations with the Ukraine government, brokered by them." (Damien Sharkov : Newsweek : 5 September, 2016) (my emphasis) 

Pavlo Klimkin, Ukraine Foreign Secretary, best describes the total absurdity (cf: Deutsche Welle : 1st Sept., 2016) of implementing Clause 4 of Minsk2 BEFORE implementing Clause 10.

• 04. On the first day after the pullout [of heavy weapons] a dialogue is to start on modalities of conducting local elections in accordance with the Ukrainian legislation and the Law of Ukraine "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts," and also about the future of these districts based on the above-mentioned law.

• 10. Pullout of all foreign armed formations, military equipment, and also mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine under OSCE supervision. Disarmament of all illegal groups.

 

So why has Putin suddenly backtracked on Ukraine despite his G20 charm offensive?

As reported by Damien Sharkov,

"Despite his apparent charm offensive, Putin’s meeting with Ukraine’s Western allies yielded little headway for Moscow.

Speaking to journalists Monday, Putin said he was resigned to return to four-way talks on Ukraine “whether they are good or bad, there are still no other initiatives to regulate the conflict.” (ibid Damien Sharkov) (my emphasis)

Extreme caution should be exercised when Putin says that he was "resigned" to do the opposite of what he initially did.

Perhaps an indication of this caution is exemplified by the fact that,

"Russia's leading independent polling agency has been labelled a "foreign agent" by the justice ministry and says it cannot now work.

 

The Levada Centre surveys political opinion among Russian people.

Its director, Lev Gudkov (right), said the move, which comes two weeks before parliamentary elections, amounted to "political censorship". (BBC News : 5 September 2016) (my emphasis)

Then, of course, we have Putin's military,

"... [launching] large-scale military drills on Ukraine's eastern border and around Ukraine’s Russia-annexed Crimean Peninsula.

The Russian Defense Ministry said September 5 that 12,500 servicemen are taking part in the drills across its southern military region. It said the Russian Navy in the Black Sea and Caspian Sea are participating in the exercises and that planes also are being used." (RFERL (AFP & Reuters) : Tuesday, September 06, 2016)

The question now is, given that Putin’s meeting with Ukraine’s Western allies yielded little headway for Moscow,

"Has Putin really 'backtracked' on assigning Minsk2 and the Normandy Four format to the dustbin of history?"

(to be continued)

While little Lithuania militarily supports Ukraine, Merkel's and Steinmeier's outdated 'Ostpolitik' diplomatically supports Putin.

On  Tuesday 25th November, 2014, I wrote that,

"It is also about time that Merkel ends the rather suspicious 'special' relationship that she has with Putin. Those tete-a-tete's, those private conversations that she has with Putin, sometimes until 1.30am in the morning, rather belies her 'incredulity' about his 'open' invasion of eastern Ukraine and his behaviour on the international stage."

What is now emerging, as reported in RT (November 23, 2014) is that Germany's Foreign Minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, has stated in an interview with Der Spiegel magazine that,

•  he is against Ukraine joining NATO
•  he does not believe it is realistic for Ukraine to join the European Union in the foreseeable future, as the economic and political modernization of Ukraine is a “project for a few generations.”  (my emphasis)
• it is possible for NATO to have a partnership with Ukraine, but not membership" (blog entry : 25/11/2014)

Since that time I have always been at pains to point out that Walter Steinmeier has, since the annexation of Ukrainian Crimea and the invasion of eastern Ukraine, always been 'soft on Putin'.

Indeed, as recently as 3rd July, 2016, I wrote that,

"Let us cast our minds back a few weeks, and recall that,

"I hope that by the end of June there will be progress and then we can see if we can reduce the [EU]sanctions [against Russia] step by step, or if we stay with the measures we have right now," Steinmeier told reporters on a visit to Tallinn on May 27." (Turkish Weekly : June 19, 2016) (my emphasis)

Also bear in mind that,

 

"Walter Steinmeier was, under former Chancellor of Germany Gerhard Schröder, responsible for co-ordinating Germany's intelligence services, (Wikipedia), (right: Steinmeier and Schröder) the very same Gerhard Schröder who now works for Putin's Gazprom ..."

And now, suddenly, many critics are beginning to question,

"German Foreign Minister's recent series of comments about working closer with Russia, with some labelling the diplomat a "Russia-sympathizer" (cf: Putinversteher May 10th 2014)

German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier continued to push his ideas for détente towards Russia on Monday, arguing for better relations between the two countries at a conference in Berlin.

"We cannot simply wish away a Russia that has become immensely more difficult," he said, calling for Germany and Russia to go from "a phase of confrontation and growing tensions, back to a reliable understanding of common security". (The Local : Aug. 29, 2016) (my emphasis)

Furthermore that,

"While Merkel earlier this summer blamed Russia’s actions in Ukraine for a breakdown of trust with Nato, Steinmeier himself appeared to point a finger at Nato, warning it in June against " “warmongering”.
....
Outside of Germany, its neighbours in Poland have expressed their own concerns about Germany’s relationship with Mother Russia. (ibid The Local) (my emphasis)

How does the Putinversteher Steinmeier see an end to Putin's war with Ukraine?

By having those Putin-designed elections in the current warzone of the Donbas! 

"Despite intensive endeavours, there has been no tangible progress either as regards improving the security situation in eastern Ukraine or on reaching the necessary consensus on local elections." Steinmeier said. (UT : Aug. 14, 2016)

Pavlo Klimkin, Ukraine's Foreign Minister, best describes the total absurdity of holding elections in the current Donbas warzone in an interview with Deutsche Welle (01.09.2016 ).

 

But perhaps even more disconcerting,

"German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier has reiterated that Russia should be returned to the G8 group of states, but it depends on the country's role in settling conflicts in Ukraine and Syria.

"The conflicts in Syria and Ukraine show that it is in our interest not to exclude Russia from the close cooperation of the major economies," Steinmeier said in an interview to the German RND." (UT : Aug. 31, 2016) (my emphasis)

And whilst the mask is fast slipping from the face of Putinversteher Walter Steinmeier,

"German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Monday, August 29, she supported lifting the sanctions from Russia. At the same time, she reminded that the restriction termination was linked to the implementation of the Minsk agreements." (UT : Aug. 30, 2016) (my emphasis)

Merkel's caveat about "the implementation of the Minsk agreements" rings rather hollow since just recently it was announced that,

"Russian presidential aide Yury Ushakov has announced that no meeting in the Normandy format between the presidents of Germany, France and Russia is scheduled on the sidelines of the G20 summit in China, the leaders will have separate meetings, according to Russian news agency RIA Novosti.

...

Poroshenko during a telephone conversation offered to use the Hangzhou summit for the purpose of holding a top-level meeting in the Normandy format. The meeting was not agreed upon, and after the known events in Crimea [Putin] clearly voiced his attitude to such possible contact. We refused even to consider such a possibility," he added." (UNIAN : 30 August 2016) (my emphasis)

Putin's 'tough guy' stance, however, is rebounding on him.

As stated by the new advisor to the Ukrainian President, Anders Fogh Rasmussen,

 

"If Russia shirks its commitment to fulfilling the Minsk agreements and continues to destabilize the Donbas, Western countries and NATO can provide Ukraine with lethal defensive weapons, former NATO Secretary-General (2009-2014) and current new advisor to the Ukrainian President Anders Fogh Rasmussen (right) said in his interview with Apostrophe." (UT : Sep. 4, 2016) (my emphasis)

Added to which,

"Lithuania says it has supplied lethal weaponry to Ukraine for the first time since 2014.

About 150 tonnes of ammunition were handed over to Ukraine on Friday, mostly 5.45 caliber cartridges for various modifications of Kalashnikov AK-47 rifle which the Lithuanian army no longer uses, a spokesman for country's Joint Chiefs of Staff told Reuters." (Reuters : Sat Sep 3, 2016) (my emphasis)

...
"We are sending a message to Ukraine that it is not alone," Lithuanian Defence Minister Juozas Olekas told Reuters." (Mail Online : 3 September 2016)(my emphasis)

It is rather ironic that Lithuania is standing with Ukraine, whilst Germany's Walter Steinmeier and Angela Merkel are diplomatically supporting Putin.

But then, of course, we have Angela Merkel admiring that minor German princess, Sophie Friederike Auguste von Anhalt-Zerbst-Dornburg (Wikipedia), who became Catherine the Great of Russia through marriage and who also, like Putin,

" ..... issued a formal proclamation of annexation [of CRIMEA] on 19 April [O.S. 8 April] 1783." (Wikipedia)

Couple this with the fact that Putinversteher Walter Steinmeier is the current Chairman of the OSCE and the political child of his mentor, former Chancellor of Germany Gerhard Schröder, you can understand why eyebrows are now being raised at German diplomacy becoming extremely chummy with Russia.

(to be continued)

Is Putin on the brink?

In May of 2014, Paul Gregory (left) reported that,

"Putin's 'Human Rights Council' Accidentally Posts Real Crimean Election Results

Quoting from that report [president-sovet.ru ]

“In Crimea, according to various indicators, 50-60% voted for unification with Russia with a voter turnout (yavka) of 30-50%.” This leads to a range of between 15 percent (50% x 30%) and 30 percent (60% x 50%) voting for annexation. The turnout in the Crimean district of Sevastopol, according to the Council, was higher: 50-80%." (Forbes : May 5, 2014) (my emphasis)

To make sure no one misses this:

"Official Kremlin results: 97 percent of polled voters for annexation, turnout 83 percent, and 82 percent of total Crimean population voting in favor.

President’s Human Rights Council mid-point estimate: 55 percent of polled voters for annexation, turnout 40 percent, 22.5 percent of total Crimean population voting in favor." (Paul Gregory : Forbes : Aug 29, 2016) (my emphasis)

Fast forward to July, 2016, and we have Putin,

".... signing into law the so-called Yarovaya Amendment to Russia’s anti-extremism laws. The amendment assigns sweeping new powers to security forces, beefs up controls of social media and telephone calls, and broadens the definition of extremism crimes.
......
The definition of extremism now includes “providing false information about historical facts and events.” Recent convictions are of “extremists,” who question the legality of the Crimean annexation and who believe that Donbass “separatists” are directed by the Russian state." (ibid Paul Gregory: Forbes Aug. 29, 2016) (my emphasis)

The FIRST casualty of war is TRUTH. (Aeschylus Greek tragic dramatist (525 BC - 456 BC) )

Which puts into stark perspective the current buildup of Putin's forces on the Ukraine-Russia border, under the guise of military drills, as well as his buildup of military equipment and Russian soldiers in the Donbas AND in Ukrainian Crimea.

It also puts into perspective the severe uptick of 'ceasefire violations' and 'heavy armament clashes between Putin's Russian soldiers & his rebel proxies, and the Ukrainian army, along the Donbas 'ceasefire' line.

 

Even the tootheless OSCE, whose current Chairman is none other than the Putinversteher Walter Steinmeier (left), has recently catalogued a long list of 'ceasefire' violations by Putin's Russian soldiers and rebel proxies in the Donbas.

It is therefore no wonder that,

"[Commander of US Army Europe Lt. Gen. Ben] Hodges (right) says Russia could help address concerns by following the example of US military drills where Russian observers are allowed.

Russia should allow observers, including Western journalists, to attend upcoming military drills that could again put Ukraine on edge just as Russian President Vladimir Putin has sharpened his rhetoric, the commander of the US Army in Europe told Reuters." (UT : Aug. 13, 2016) (my emphasis)

Which brings us back to that first casualty of war, TRUTH, and Putin's signing into law, the Yarovaya Amendment.

As reported by UNIAN,

"In the early hours of August 28, 2016, [Russian] journalist Alexander Shchetinin (left) was found dead in his apartment at Kostiantynivska Street. Alexander was found on the balcony by his friends, who came to congratulate him on his birthday," the Kyiv Operatyvny news portal wrote on Facebook. (UNIAN : 28 August 2016) (my emphasis)

Alexander Shchetinin,
 
"...publically criticized [ ]Vladimir Putin, who he called a “personal enemy” running a “fascist dictatorship,” (The Telegraph : 29 August 2016) and,

"... gave up his Russian citizenship before becoming a Ukrainian national and settling in the capital." (Rachael Pells (right): The Independent : Monday 29 August 2016) (my emphasis)

What must also be irking Putin is the fact that,

• Ukraine’s public expenditures fell by 9 percent of GDP in 2015 alone, and the budget deficit plunged from 10.5 percent of GDP in 2014 to 2.5 percent in 2015.

• Three anti-corruption bodies have been institutionalized. Bank cleansing proceeds. Absurd rules for early retirement have been abolished. The country’s macroeconomic stability remains strong, and Ukraine has returned to economic growth.

• After a total GDP fall of 17 percent in 2014-15, the real economy has bottomed out, and new growth is tepid. Realistically, the IMF predicts a GDP growth of 1.5 percent this year. (Anders Åslund: Atlantic Council : August 29, 2016) (my emphasis)

By contrast,

• Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development has announced a new “baseline plus” plan for the Russian economy, despite concerns that the country's original economic strategy remains unbalanced, the Vedomosti business daily reported Tuesday. (Moscow Times : Aug. 30 2016) (my emphasis)
• The baseline plan will see the country's deficit rise significantly above the 3.2 percent target set out by the Finance Ministry. “This kind of policy means that demand will shrink, funds will become exhausted, and there will be nothing to eat,” the source said. (ibid Moscow Times)

 As a consequence, and extremely disconcerting,

"Structural units of the Russian Telecom and Mass Communications, Finance and Industry and Trade Ministries, the Federal Agency for State Reserves and the Central Bank will be involved in mobilization training, the Defense Ministry’s press office said.

The mobilization training will be held as part of a sudden combat readiness check of the Russian Armed Forces, the press office added." (Russia Beyond the Headlines : August 30, 2016) (my emphasis)

 And we now hear that,

".... a  Final decision on the meeting of Russian President Vladimir Putin and the leaders of France and Germany on the sidelines of the [G20] summit in China (September 4-5, 2016) is still pending, told reporters on Monday, the press Secretary of the head of state, Dmitry Peskov.

“While there is no final confirmation about the meeting. Yet negotiations on diplomatic channels”, – said Peskov." (NewsRussia : August 29, 2016) (my emphasis)

At the same time,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Barack Obama may communicate with each other on the sidelines of the G20 summit to be held in China on Sept. 4-5, the Russian news agency TASS reported Tuesday.

Earlier on Monday, Ben Rhodes, Obama's deputy national security adviser, said the U.S. president hopes to meet his Russian counterpart to discuss some issues during the summit.

"We also hope (for such an opportunity)," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov was quoted as saying. "We are ready, although the final decision has not been made yet," he added. (Xinhua Net : Moscow, Aug. 30) (my emphasis)

The fact that at the coming G20 meeting in China, there 

• may be a meeting between Putin, Merkel and Hollande, and
• may be a meeting between Putin and Obama

tells us that, more than anything else, Is Putin on the brink? These meetings (if they happen!) will be for the public consumption of the Russian people rather than an earnestness on the part of Putin to bring to a resolution his current war with Ukraine. 

Let us not foget that there is some anxiety on the part of Putin about the forcoming Duma elections next month.

Legislative elections will be held in Russia on 18 September 2016, having been brought forward from 4 December 2016.   

Already he has set up his own Praetorian Guard, together with the fact that he has signed into law his Yarovaya Amendment, a legal support for any actions his Praetorian Guard may have to take againt the Russian people AFTER these uncoming Duma elections.

Added to which, he is now publicly mobilizing the Russian people. Russia Beyond the Headlines

(to be continued)

Putin is juggling with fire

On the 18th June, 2016, Stephen Sestanovich (left) wrote that,

"Having seized Crimea in 2014 and intervened in Syria in 2015, [Putin] can claim credit for the strongest and most successful assertion of Russian power since the end of the Cold War.

At the same time, the country is more isolated internationally than it has been in decades.

Putin faces a similar problem on the economic front. A leader who, many Russians say, made rising living standards the basis of his legitimacy now cannot promise that the good times will return.

These contradictory realities have produced wildly disparate assessments, both by Russian observers and others, of Putin’s political prospects and policy intentions." (Newsweek : 18 June, 2016) (my emphasis)


Putin’s political prospects and policy intentions are fast beginning to show confusion, as evidenced  by the appoinment of Anton Vaino as his new Head of the Presidential Administration, following the sudden sacking of his long-time friend and ally, Sergei Ivanov (right: Ivanov and Putin).

But who, exactly, is Anton Vaino?

As reported by Olga Ivshina and Dmitry Bulin,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin's new chief of staff Anton Vaino has reached the top shrouded in mystery.

He does not appear to have given any press interviews in his past career, and his official biography reveals little, beyond a steady rise over many years of service to the Kremlin." (BBC News : 19 August 2016) (my empahsis)

Even more disconcerting,

"Mr Vaino argues that the economy and society in general have become too complex to manage by traditional means. Governments need to seek new ways of regulating and controlling them.

The article describes a new device called a "nooscope" which, it says, can tap into global consciousness and "detect and register changes in the biosphere and in human activity". (ibid Ivshina and Bulin)

Even Daria Litvinova, (right) writing in the Moscow Times, reports that,

"A bizarre article about “spacial scanners” and “registering the unseen” has been linked to the newly appointed top bureaucrat Anton Vaino.
.....
The bigger question is whether Anton Vaino, president’s chief of staff, really wrote it, says Mikhail Gelfand, a prominent biologist and co-founder of Dissernet.

“If he is really behind this delirium, then it’s quite scary,” Gelfand told The Moscow Times. “If, he’s just signed off on other people’s work, we have another problem. That means we’re living in a country where head of the presidential administration can sign off on an absurdity with his eyes closed” (Moscow Times : Aug. 15 2016)

One would like to believe that by employing Vaino as his Chief of Staff, Putin is simply using the Russian strategy of 'maskirovka', a strategy of deception and smoke & mirrors, to keep people guessing what his next diplomatic move will be after the recent 'Crimea incident', and the building up of his forces along the Ukrainian border and in Ukrainian Crimea.

Let us recall that,

"Largely Unnoticed, Full-Scale War May Be Returning to Ukraine. July was the deadliest month in the Donbass for over a year." (Ola Cichowlas and Matthew Bodner : Moscow Times : Aug. 04 2016) (my emphasis)

just as 

• Putin wants the High Ranking military official, Mikhail Babich, to become his ambassador in Kiev, 
• Putin's dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, says that Putin is "seriously concerned" by the uptick of fighting in the Donbas 
• large amounts of Russian military hardware have been massed near the towns of Dzhankoy and Armyansk in Crimea's north, close to the administrative border with mainland Ukraine,
• More than 100 people arrived in Donbas from Russia to replenish the combined Russian-separatist forces, and
• Combined Russian-separatist forces attacked the Ukrainian army positions in eastern Ukraine 47 times in the past 24 hours? (blog entry : Tuesday, 9 August 2016) 

Christopher Miller (RFER/L)10.08.2016

 

 More recently,

"U.S. Vice President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko called Friday for a resolution in the conflict with pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine.

A White House statement said Biden and Poroshenko spoke by telephone and "expressed deep concern over the recent surge in fighting in eastern Ukraine, where cease-fire violations by combined Russian-separatist forces are at their highest levels since 2015, often using heavy weapons."

The White House said Biden "relayed that the United States had sent a message to Russia that the world is watching and underscored the need to de-escalate the situation." It said the vice president also urged Ukraine to "show restraint." (VOA : August 20, 2016) (my emphasis) 

And whilst Putin's Russian soldiers and rebel-proxies continue to trample all over the Minsk2 ceasefire agreement, Putin himself is cementing a deep relationship with Turkey which, no doubt, has put paid to the deepening relationship between Erdogan and Poroshenko shortly after Turkey shot down that Russian military plane that had entered Turkey's air space.

Rather chillingly,

"An MP from the Russian parliament, Igor Morozov, suggested that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan could offer Russia use of the airbase, which is currently used by NATO and is home to around 50 US nuclear warheads.

...

It is not guaranteed that Russia needs Incirlik, but such a decision can be regarded as Turkey's real readiness to cooperate with Russia in the fight against terrorism in Syria, and not just pay lip service," Ozerov said, according to the Russian state-funded Sputnik website." (Middle East Eye :Wednesday 17 August 2016 ) (my emphasis)

If we add to these chilling developments the belief of Putin's new Chief of Staff, Anton Vaino, that,

"...  the economy and society in general have become too complex to manage by traditional means. Governments need to seek new ways of regulating and controlling them [through the use of a 'nooscope']."

we can expect Putin to throw caution to the wind and ramp up his war with Ukraine as the Duma elections draw ever closer.

(to be continued)