Putin cannot afford to lose in his war with Ukraine

In my blog entry of 17 October, I quoted Russian political scientist Dmitry Oreshkin (left) stating that,

"...  Putin has nothing to offer his people to gain their support and to consolidate public opinion except “militaristic rhetoric and short victorious wars.”  But the effect of those wars – and there have been three so far – quickly exhausts itself." (Paul Goble : 15 October, 2016)

And so it is that the Normandy Four meeting, with the participation of Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany, and which took place in Berlin on the night of 19-20 October, seems to indicate that for Putin, at least, his war with Ukraine in the Donbas has somewhat exhausted itself.

It no longer serves the initially prime purpose of propping up himself and his 'siloviki'.  It has now become counter-productive. 

As reported by UNIAN,

"We often repeat like a mantra these days that the notorious sanctions are having little impact. But they do have an impact. We feel this above all in restrictions on technology transfers," he said at the eighth Russia Calling! Investment Forum organized by VTB Capital on Wednesday, October 12." (UNIAN :12 October 2016) (my emphasis)

Some of the long-term effects of the current impact of sanctions on Putin's Russian economy is best described by Russia's Economic Ministry projecting by just how much the Russian economy will stagnate over the next twenty years.

"Coming out of the recession in 2017, the economy in the next 20 years will grow very slowly - an average of 2% per year (from 1.7 to a maximum of 2.6%). It is about 1.5 times below the world average rates: thus Russia will all be shifted closer to the poorest countries. Increase GDP in 20 years will only be 1.5 times. Real incomes will rise by an average of 1.4% per year and will be released at the level of 2013 only in 2021, in 2035 it exceeded by less than 30%. For comparison, the same amount they have grown in 2006-2007." (Vedomosti :20.10.2016) (Google Translated from Russian) (my emphasis)

Yet, emerging from the Berlin Normandy Four meeting on the night of 19-20 October we have a 'roadmap'.

This 'roadmap', aimed at reviving the stalled peace process in eastern Ukraine must, according to Poroshenko,

".....  foresees consistency and guarantees. Implementing the security conditions, a ceasefire, withdrawing foreign troops, respect for the removal of military equipment, providing easy access for the OSCE, releasing hostages should go before the implementation of the political part." (Olena Makarenko (right) : Euromaidan Press : 20/10/2016) (my emphasis)

And herein lies the rub, rather succinctly expressed by Vitaliy Portnikov (left),

"And here the dialog stops because Hollande and Merkel clearly understand that without disarming criminals and a withdrawal of Russian troops, no elections are possible. But Putin understands just as clearly that after the disarmament of the criminals and withdrawal the Russian troops he does not need any elections. He will simply lose Donbas as a leverage of influence on Ukraine,” (ibid Olena Makarenko) (my emphasis)

More significantly,

"It is necessary to boost the efficiency of the OSCE monitoring mission and an armed police mission is needed there. Before the elections, we must have control over the border on the part of a permanent OSCE armed mission," [Poroshenko] said in an interview with the Ukraina television channel commenting on the results of the latest Normandy Four summit in Berlin." (Tass :  October 23, 2016) (my emphasis) (my emphasis)

It is therefore no wonder that Putin's Russian soldiers and rebel proxies continue to launch attacks against Ukrainian positions.

As reported by UT,

"Combined Russian-separatist forces attacked Ukrainian army positions in eastern Ukraine 35 times in the past day - 20 in the Mariupol sector, nine barrages in the Luhansk sector, and six in the Donetsk sector – including four artillery attacks." (UT : Oct. 24, 2016) (my emphasis)

Putin has nowhere else to go except to continue with his military action against Ukraine.

Furthermore, Putin has to,

"... stick to his “classical line” – Ukraine must implement the political package first, including changes to the Constitution, the law on amnesty, and “direct negotiations” with the Russian mercenaries." (Vitaliy Portnikov (ibid Olena Makarenko)) (my emphasis)

Like the narcissistic Donald Trump on the verge of losing the US presidential race to Hillary Clinton, Putin cannot afford to lose in his war with Ukraine, no matter what the cost to the Russian people.

(to be continued)

Putin has nothing to offer Poroshenko except “militaristic rhetoric"

Three days ago (14/10/2016) Putin's Russian press in both Russia and the occupied territory of the Donbass reported that,

"The Ukrainian combat helicopter shot down by the DPR forces landed in the area of Krasnogorovka occupied by the AFU. It was stated by Eduard Basurin, the DPR Operative Command Deputy Commander. " (Dninews: Saturday, October 15, 2016)

Similarly, TASS reported that,

"The militia command of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) has received information that the helicopter downed by the militia on Thursday, was carrying some instructors from NATO’s member states, the DPR Operations Command Spokesman Eduard Basurin told journalists on Friday." (TASS : October 14,2016) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile, as Putin's proxy soldiers in the Donbass are reporting that,

"The DPR Operative Command specified that the area of the combat helicopter’s fall was cordoned off at that moment. Moreover, mobile communication did not work there." (ibid Dninews) (my emphasis),

the Ukrainian Defense Ministry,

".....  has denied the shoot down of one of its helicopters in Donbass, says it does not use helicopters for military ops" (Liveuamap : 14 October, 2016) (my emphasis)

At the same time the OSCE, in its information received as of 19:30, 14 October 2016

from its Special Monitoring Mission in the Donbass, did not include the shooting down of a helicopter by Putin's rebel proxy forces.

Given that Putin's rebel proxies in the Donbass stated that this helicopter was "carrying some instructors from NATO’s member states", the absolute deart of an international outcry about this helicopter downing contrasts with the international outcry in the case of the shooting down of the airliner MH17 (right) by Putin's forces in the Donbass on 17 July 2014 that killed all 283 passengers and 15 crew on board, and questions the veracity of Putin's propaganda machine about this alleged "helicopter shooting down".

What we do know is that,

"The Mariupol sector has ... suffered 18 attacks for the past 24 hours. The cities of Maryinka, Shyrokyne and Krasnogorivka were hotspots for militant shelling. Mortars, armored fighting vehicles, grenade launchers and machine guns were used in that direction.

In the Donetsk sector, Ukrainian Armed Forces have been fired 6 times. Grenade launchers and small arms shelling into Ukrainian soldiers in Troitske and Avdiivka were noted." (UT : Oct. 16, 2016) (my emphasis)

What we also know is that Putin continues to pour his Russian soldiers and armaments into the Donbass.

And according to Pavel Felgenhauer (left), a Russian military analyst,

"Putin Likely to Expand Russian Invasion of Ukraine in January [2017].

... an attack on Odessa more likely [as opposed to an attack on Mariupol] especially since “many in Russia consider [Odessa] a Russian city” and because its “’liberation’” would trigger a patriotic explosion much like the annexation of Crimea." (Joel Harding (right): To Inform Is To Influence : October 15, 2016) (my emphasis)

This would tie-in with the militaristic hysteria that Putin is foisting upon the Russian people as Russia continues to aimlessly meander in the quagmire of an economic depression.

However, according to Sergey Shelin (left),

"The militaristic hysteria the Kremlin has unleashed in order to frighten the West and win support at home “does not have real causes and looks like an improvisation by the leader and his advisors” tragically is “getting out of control” and could by itself lead to disaster ... " (Paul Goble : Window on Eurasia : Sunday, October 16, 2016) (my emphasis)

Shelin further argues that,

"As far as Ukraine is concerned. No one ever expected the Minsk accords to be fulfilled; and they aren’t being and won’t however much Moscow blusters." (ibid Paul Goble)

Which raises the important question viz.

"What will the invitation of Angela Merkel to Putin, Hollande, and Poroshenko to dinner in Berlin on October 19 really achieve when Poroshenko has not agreed to participate in a 'Normandy Four' summit until a roadmap envisaging compliance with the Minsk security provisions is coordinated?" (UT :

Is Merkel, yet again, providing Putin with a diplomatic platform to, in the words of Sergey Shelin, "bluster" about the Minsk2 protocols? 

As reported by the Jerusalem Post,

"German Chancellor Angela Merkel is in regular contact with Russian President Vladimir Putin about the conflict in eastern Ukraine and the war in Syria, a government spokesman said on Friday." (Jerusalem Post (Reuters): 14/10/2016) (my emphasis), yet again underlining the Putinversteher German mentality

Shelin is correct when he states that, "No one ever expected the Minsk accords to be fulfilled; and they aren’t being and won’t .. " (cf also: UT : Oct. 12, 2016 :  "Red lines" of Minsk agreements for Ukraine: analysts' warning)

Yet many political analysts are now arguing that Putin's militaristic hysteria and his preparing the Russian people for war is merely a show to boost his support in Russia.

And they may be right.

According to Russian political scientist Dmitry Oreshkin (right),

"...  Putin has nothing to offer his people to gain their support and to consolidate public opinion except “militaristic rhetoric and short victorious wars.”  But the effect of those wars – and there have been three so far – quickly exhausts itself." (Paul Goble : 15 October, 2016) (my emphasis)

Valery Solovey (left) is even more forthright. According to him,

" ... “the powers that be in Russia are not very firm. They try to give the impression of a strong, self-confident and even brutal state. But this is an exaggeration, an attempt to frighten the external world and Russian society” (ibid Paul Goble : 15 Oct) (my emphasis)

Yet .....

"[t]here are some unsettling things Russia has done, however, to give the impression that war is looming. (UT : Oct. 15, 2016) (my emphasis)

Is this a prelude to attack Odessa, as  Pavel Felgenhauer predicts?

(to be continued) 

Putin's 'feverish' diplomatic flurry being aided and abetted by Merkel and Hollande

In March of 2015 Putin, for the first time, publicly admitted that,

"... the plan to annex Crimea was ordered weeks before the referendum on self-determination." (BBC News : 9 March 2015) (my emphasis)

We should therefore not be surprised that, as recently reported by Damien Sharkov,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that his government was “forced to defend the Russian speakers” of eastern Ukraine, despite previously denying that Moscow plays any formal role in the conflict in the Donbas regions.
...
Putin had denied sending troops into Crimea, before annexing it in 2014, and issued similar denials regarding Donbas. However, he has issued statements seemingly admitting to armed Russian presence in both regions since." (Newsweek: 10/12/16) (my emphasis)

This public announcement by Putin comes on the heels of,

• "The Russian and Turkish leaders .. [agreeing] to intensify military and intelligence contacts after a meeting in Istanbul" (BBC News: 10 October 2016) (my emphasis), as well as,
•  Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, met on Monday for the second time since August to finalize a deal for an undersea gas pipeline and demonstrate renewed bilateral ties ..... The pipeline would be hugely beneficial to Russia, allowing Moscow to bypass Ukraine entirely and giving it a direct opening into the European market. (Natasha Bertrand : Business Indsider : Oct. 12, 2016) (my emphasis)

It also come on the heels of,


"Russian President Vladimir Putin [cancelling] a planned visit to France next week, the Kremlin said Tuesday, in an apparent snub to French President François Hollande, who suggested Moscow was guilty of war crimes in Syria." (Angela Dewan (left): CNN : October 11, 2016) (my emphasis)

And then, in a telephone conversation between Putin, Merkel, and Hollande (Oct 12, 2016),

"Despite growing diplomatic tensions over Syria, the leaders of Russia, France and Germany may meet "very soon" in Berlin to revive peace efforts for Ukraine.
....
The statement said they agreed that a Ukraine peace meeting would have to be "constructive and useful" toward ensuring a cease-fire and free elections. Prospects of a quick solution to Ukraine's conflict between the government and Russia-backed separatist rebels seem remote, however." (ABC News (Associated Press) : Oct 12, 2016) (my emphasis)

This "opportunistic diplomatic flurry" of Putin has been spurred on as the eyes of President Obama are averted towards what is turning into the 'strangest' of American presidential elections, and also with the possible election of Hilary Clinton into the Oval Office within the next 30 days.

Unlike President Obama, a Hilary Clinton presidency will not be as 'soft on Putin' as Obama has been.

In 2014 she stated that Putin's actions in Ukrainian Crimea,

".... were similar to what happened in the Nazi era in Czechoslovakia and Romania.
 
"Now if this sounds familiar, it’s what Hitler did back in the 30s,” Clinton said... “Hitler kept saying: ‘They’re not being treated right. I must go and protect my people.’ And that’s what’s gotten everybody so nervous.” (The Guardian (Associated Press) : Thursday 6 March 2014) (my emphasis)

As Putin himself recently said about sending his soldiers into the Donbas and into Ukrainian Crimea,

“Then when we were forced, and I want to underline this, forced to defend the Russian speaking population of Donbas, forced to respond to the struggle of the people living in Crimea to return to the Russian federation, [the U.S.] begins a wave of anti-Russian policies and introduces sanctions.” (ibid Damien Sharkov) (my emphasis)

And whilst Putin, Merkel, and Hollande, are once again shouting from the rafters that,

".. they agreed that a Ukraine peace meeting would have to be "constructive and useful" toward ensuring a cease-fire and free elections." (ibid Angela Dewan)
....
"The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe has said that only "significant and measurable progress" by Russia towards implementation of previous resolutions of the Assembly can form the basis for restoration of a fully-fledged, mutually respectful dialogue" (UT : Oct. 12, 2016)

This is rather succinctly summed up in the words of Ukraine's Parliament First Deputy Chairwoman Iryna Gerashchenko (right) that,

"They recognized that if the OSCE cannot guarantee the security of the two speakers in the occupied territories, the OSCE cannot guarantee the security of the elections. Therefore, any elections in the occupied Donbas currently is out of the schedule. This is recorded in the PACE resolution, supported by 87 members of the Assembly. We have a powerful argument in our discussions with Western partners. It is difficult to overestimate." (ibid UT)

The obvious fact that the OSCE, currently chaired by that Putinversteher Walter Steinmeier (left), cannot guarantee the security of elections in the Donbas, Putin's desperation to have the sanctions against him and his siloviki lifted is now the main focus of his wanting this 'meeting' about Ukraine with Merkel and Hollande.
 
And notwithstanding the deepening military and economic collaboration between Putin and Erdogan, a potential President Clinton will want to INCREASE the sanctions against him and his siloviki clique, especially in light of what Putin is doing in Allepo, and Putin is well aware of this. 

Putin does not have time on his side.

And to now, suddenly, announce publicly that  he was “forced to defend the Russian speakers” of eastern Ukraine, thus admitting that thousands of Russian soldiers are operating in the Donbas, indicates his desperation to at least have 'his' framework for those 'elections' in the Donbas underwritten by Merkel and Hollande before the looming US presidential elections.

(to be continued)

Is Putin risking nuclear war to save face?

Given the fact that Putin has always lied to the world about his real mother, Vera Putina [1] [2] [3], and that he invented a story about 'a cornered rat' that he found in his surrogate parents' flat in St. Petersburg, it should come as no surprise that, being now cornered himself on the international stage, he is dangerously lashing out, bringing the world precipitously to the brink of war.

As reported by Harriet Agerholm (right),

"A Russian newspaper has warned that Russian President Vladmir Putin is playing an "astonishingly risky game" in the Syrian conflict that could even lead to a Third World War.

Popular tabloid, Moskovsky Komsomolets, ran an article that suggested hostilities in Syria could spark a “direct military confrontation" between the nations of a similar scale to the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis." (The Independent : Friday 7 October 2016) (my emphasis)

And, rather disconcertingly,

"As relations between Russia and the US disintegrate as a result of the escalating proxy war in Syria,

[ ... ] tomorrow an unprecedented 40 million Russian citizens, as well as 200,000 specialists from "emergency rescue divisions" and 50,000 units of equipment are set to take part in a four day-long civil defense, emergency evacuation and disaster preparedness drill, the Russian Ministry for Civil Defense reported on its website." (Tyler Durden : Zero Hedge : Oct 4, 2016)

These dangerous developments come against the backdrop of,

"President Vladimir Putin [abandoning] a key nuclear disarmament treaty with the U.S. and [demanding] the removal of sanctions and troop reductions from Russia’s former Cold War enemy to restore the agreement.
...
In a separate document submitted to Russia’s parliament, Putin indicated his readiness to revive the treaty provided the U.S. reduces its military and troop presence in NATO member states to the level that existed on Sept. 1, 2000.


He also called for an end to sanctions against Russia imposed in 2014 over the conflict in Ukraine, and the abolition of restrictions under the so-called Magnitsky Act of 2012, which was aimed at officials accused of involvement in the prison death of whistle-blower Sergei Magnitsky." (Stepan Kravchenko, Ilya Arkhipov, and Toluse Olorunnipa: Bloomberg : October 3, 2016) (my emphasis)

 

A direct indication of Putin's current mind-set can also be gleaned from from a Bill of Amendments published on Monday (3rd October 2016) which further SLASHES the Welfare budget and INCREASES the Military Budget.

"Russia’s military spending is set to increase by 679 billion rubles ($10 billion) despite the welfare budget decreasing by 375 billion rubles ($6 billion), the Gazeta.ru news website reported Tuesday, citing a source in the government.
.....
Alexandra Suslina, an economic analyst, told Gazeta.ru that defense and social spending are the government’s priorities. 

All other areas of government would receive “whatever is leftover,” she said, adding that the economy was far from the government’s priority." (Moscow Times : Oct. 04 2016) (my emphasis)

In contrast, as Anders Åslund (left) points out,

"Ukraine’s immediate economic crisis has been resolved, but its economy remains fragile and still needs international support. If the new Ukrainian government becomes complacent, the country’s gains could be lost.
...
Ukraine has been climbing out of an economic hole that Yanukovych helped dig.
....
Ukraine is keeping up on its foreign payments. The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) is buying foreign currency to maintain exchange-rate stability, and it has reduced inflation to just 8% (as of August) by gradually cutting interest rates and easing currency regulations.
...
[Last].. month [the IMF] approved a $1 billion loan, which could stabilize the exchange rate. The United States is expected to match the IMF tranche with a $1 billion loan guarantee, and the European Union will offer $673 million in macroeconomic-finance assistance." ( Project Syndicate : Oct 4, 2016) (my emphasis)

Putin's 'demand' for an end to sanctions against Russia imposed in 2014 over the conflict in Ukraine, (ibid Stepan Kravchenko, Ilya Arkhipov, and Toluse Olorunnipa) also signifies that the Russian economy is in more of a downward tailspin than previously thought of  by many Western economists.

The international outcry against his bombings in Allepo has also raised the spectre of yet MORE sanctions against Putin.

As reported by Anton Troianovski, Laurence Norman and Julian E. Barnes,

"The German government is considering a push for European sanctions against Russia in response to its behavior in Syria, a person familiar with the German deliberations said on Wednesday, signaling that Europe is seeking new ways to pressure Moscow to quell the violence there." (Wall Street Journal : Oct. 5, 2016) (my emphasis)

Whether these new sanctions against Putin materialises or not, the mere fact that they are now part of the international diplomatic discourse can only serve to further propell him towards putting Russia onto a near total war footing.

(to be continued)

Putin now wears the mantle of a "war criminal"

The world has already forgotten the Duma elections in Putin's Russia which, as a foregone conclusion, his rubber stamping party, United Russia, won rather comfortably.

We should not forget that,

"These 'crushing gains' that he achieved should, however, be viewed against the fact that,

"Less than half Russia's registered voters turned up at polling station in this election, meaning that the new Duma was chosen by less than 50 percent of Russians. In some regions, less than one third of registered voters participated. Turnout in Russia as a whole was at 47.9 percent." (Meduza : 19 september 2016) (my emphasis)

Video Showing Ballot Stuffing in recent Russian elections

In the West, such figures would be a reflection of 'voter apathy', more than anything else.

In Putin's Russia it represents something more than mere 'apathy'. And Putin is well aware of this." (blog entry:21/09/2016)



Then we have the bombing of the aid convoy on the outskirts of the besieged Syrian town of Allepo.


As reported in the Japanese Times,

"The U.S. accused Moscow of “barbarism” over the worsening carnage in Aleppo, as Syrian and Russian warplanes pounded the city in one of the heaviest bombing raids of the five-year war.

At an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council to demand Russia rein in its ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and halt intense airstrikes, Moscow and Damascus were repeatedly accused of war crimes. (Japenese Times (AFP-JIJI) : Sep 26, 2016) (my emphasis)

The following Sunday, during a BBC interview, UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson was also in no doubt that Putin is guilty of a 'war crime'.

It now also transpires that,

"For weeks, American officials have been saying that Russian intelligence agencies were behind hacks into the DNC, state election databases and other political entities, but they weren't definitive about the motive since nations routinely hack into their adversaries' political organizations to gather information for spying purposes.

In recent days, U.S. officials tell NBC News, American spy agencies have determined that the Russian government was behind the leaks of Democratic National Committee emails to Wikileaks and others — and that the goal was to undermine confidence in the American presidential election." (Cynthia McFadden, William Arkin, Josh Meyer and Ken Dilanian : NBC News : Sep 29 2016) (my emphasis)

And it has also rather definatively being proved that,

"A Dutch-led investigation has concluded that the powerful surface-to-air missile system used to shoot down a Malaysia Airlines plane over Ukraine two years ago, killing all 298 on board, was trucked in from Russia at the request of Russian-backed separatists and returned to Russia the same night.

The report largely confirmed the Russian government’s already widely documented role not only in the deployment of the missile system — called a Buk, or SA-11 — but also in the subsequent cover-up, which continues to this day." (Somini Sengupta and Andrew E. Kramer: New York Times : SEPT. 28, 2016) (my emphasis)

What all of this tells us is that Putin must now becoming more desperate in trying to save face by pushing even harder those Minsk2 elections, with the active help of Putinversteher Walter Steinmeier.

As reported by Tass,

"Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier had a telephone conversation on Thursday, in the course of which they underlined the importance of synchronizing the efforts to attain security in eastern Ukraine and to fulfill the Minsk accords, a report uploaded by the Russian Foreign Ministry at its official website said." (Tass : September 29, 2016) (my emphasis) 

It is also therefore no wonder that, suddenly, 

"Pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine are being actively advised by people close to the Kremlin on how to conduct a "propaganda campaign" against Kiev and the West, German media reported Thursday.

In what it called the "Donetsk-Leaks", investigative television programme Frontal21 and newspaper Die Zeit said they had obtained "10,000 emails" from the inbox of the self-proclaimed Donetsk Republic's information minister Elena Nikitina, shared online by pro-Ukraine activists.

Moscow has always denied that it provides support to separatists in eastern Ukraine, but the documents demonstrate the opposite, the reports said, showing "advisors" working directly with the rebels." (Yahoo News (Berlin AFP) : September 29, 2016) (my emphasis)

We can now expect even more frenzied 'diplomatic' and 'covert' operations being put into effect by Putin as the US Presidential elections draw near.

No longer can he now stand on the international stage and continue to claim that his soldiers are not fighting his war against Ukraine in the Donbas.

No longer can he deny that it was his soldiers, with his weapons, that shot down MH17.

No longer can he deny that his 'hackers' are trying to undermine the US Presidential election.

And he cannot deny that he is complicit in causing the carnage in Allepo, and in bombing the Humanitarian Aid convoy outside Allepo. He now also wears the mantle of a 'war criminal'.

(to be continued)

What Putin gains on the political roundabout he is about to lose on the economic downturn of the Russian economy.

It should come as no surprise that, as reported by Molly O’Toole and Reid Standish (left),

" .. [I]nvited to meet with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly this week, Trump’s campaign didn’t even bother to send Kiev an RSVP.

A spokesperson for the Ukrainian presidential administration told Foreign Policy they reached out to both Trump and his Democratic rival, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, to meet with Poroshenko. According to the official, only Clinton said yes, sitting down with the president on Monday. The Trump campaign did not give a clear answer." (Foreign Policy : September 20, 2016) (my emphasis)

As David Corn and Hannah Levintova have reported,

"How did an alleged and notorious Russian mobster [Alimzhan Tokhtakhounov (right)] connected to an illegal international gambling ring run out of Trump Tower end up as a special guest at a Donald Trump event in Moscow in 2013?
....
Trump's associations with Russia have sparked assorted controversies. He has praised Russian leader Vladimir Putin and made a series of contradictory remarks regarding his relationship with the autocrat." (Mother Jones : Sep. 14, 2016) (my emphasis)

Kurt Eichenwald is correct when he poses the question,

"[W]ill Trump instead choose to be the most conflicted president in American history, one whose business interests will constantly jeopardize the security of the United States?" (Newsweek :  14 September, 2016) (my emphasis)

One can only guess at what a Trump presidency will do for Putin in his war with Ukraine.

This is not the only frightening prospect that Poroshenko now has to confront.

The gains of the far right Alternative for Germany (AfD) political party has,

"... won the highest share of the vote for the far-Right in Berlin since the Second World War ..
...
The Berlin gains represent new territory for the AfD, most of whose previous successes have been in impoverished areas of the former communist east." (Justin Huggler : The Telegraph : 18 September 2016) (my emphasis)

 

In October 2014 I wrote that,

"It is rather ironic that the Kremlin and Putin's propaganda machines are constantly propagating the lie about 'fascists and neo-Nazis' being elected to the Ukrainian parliament, whilst at the same time rolling out the red carpet for neo-Nazi and right-wing European organizations.

Thus it was that Marine Le Pen, the neo-Nazi leader of France, was treated like a cabinet minister by top Russian politicians, whilst the British Fascist leader of the BNP party endorsed Russian elections in Russia. As John Vinocur has commented," Marine Le Pen wants to neuter the EU as a political force. The Kremlin couldn't ask for a better ally." (my emphasis) (blog: Thursday, 30 October 2014)

As also reported by Melanie Amann and Pavel Lokshin,

"Marcus Pretzell (right) is waiting. He's a member of the European Parliament with the right-wing populist party Alternative for Germany (AfD) 
...
"We at Alternative for Germany represent not only a threat to the Ukrainian government, but also to the German government," he proudly announces. The audience applauds. He then goes on to say that good economic relations with Russia "are in the interest of the German people" and that sanctions should be lifted immediately. The applause grows." (Der Spiegel : April 27, 2016) (my emphasis)

Throughout the EU, Putin has assiduously cultivated links with BOTH the Far Right and the Far Left. 

How deep his financial support for these political parties goes, particularly for Far Right parties, can be evidenced by the fact that in 2015, Marine Le Pen's 'Front Nationale',

" ...  may have been given a multi-million-euro loan by a Russian bank as a "reward" for backing President Putin's annexation of Crimea, according to text messages released by Russian hackers.
...
The loan was the first instalment of Russian-backed loans of 40m euros that would fund the cash-strapped Front National in the run-up to the 2017 presidential campaign, Mediapart reported. " (David Chazan : Telegraph : 04 Apr 2015) (my emphasis)

Putin is now beginning to reap rich political dividends from his ongoing support for Right-Wing and Left-Wing parties in the EU.

Already we have, following Brexit, Matteo Renzi (Italian Prime Minister),

"..[saying] that he was "not satisfied with the conclusions on growth and immigration" and therefore could not share the press conference held by Merkel and Hollande." (Ansa :16 September 2016) (my emphasis)

At this stage Putin may not be overtly concerned about the outcome of the American Presidential elections. A Trump victory will simply be 'the cherry on the cake', so to speak.

The fact that deep divisions are beginning to appear amongst the leading Euro economies in the EU, and that populist Right Wing parties in the EU are now in the ascendent, is bringing to fruition his long cherished aim of bringing down the EU.

These divisions, however, may not be enough to protect him from the Russian people themselves.

It was a foregone conclusion the Putin would be victorious in the Duma elections.

These 'crushing gains' that he achieved should, however, be viewed against the fact that,

"Less than half Russia's registered voters turned up at polling station in this election, meaning that the new Duma was chosen by less than 50 percent of Russians. In some regions, less than one third of registered voters participated. Turnout in Russia as a whole was at 47.9 percent." (Meduza : 19 september 2016) (my emphasis)

In the West, such figures would be a relection of 'voter apathy', more than anything else.

In Putin's Russia it represents something more than mere 'apathy'. And Putin is well aware of this.

Winter is approaching and,

"After almost two years in recession, the country's rainy day fund has shrunk to just $32.2 billion this month, according to the Russian Finance Ministry. It was $91.7 billion in September 2014, just before oil prices started to collapse.

And it's getting worse. Analysts expect the fund will shrink to just $15 billion by the end of this year and dry up completely soon after that." (Ivana Kottasova : CNN Money : September 16, 2016) (my emphasis) 
 
How will Putin cope with the glaring economic facts that has already thrown millions of Russians into increasingly dire poverty? (cf: Germain Moyon : France24: 21 September 2016)
 
(to be continued)

Putin is now determined to destroy the Ukrainian economic recovery

As the Duma elections in Putin's Russia looms large in his calendar, suddenly we find that,

"The leaders of the separatists in Ukraine's eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk (left: Zakharchenko and Plotnitskiy) have announced a unilateral cease-fire starting at midnight on September 14...
....
But it was not immediately clear why the Russia-backed separatists made the announcement more than two weeks after the sides had already agreed to another temporary truce.

The announcement comes a few hours after Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said that he expects the parliament to vote soon on constitutional amendments granting autonomy to eastern Ukraine." (RFERL : Thursday, September 15, 2016) (my emphasis)

The Putinversteher Walter Steinmeier, together with French Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault, are 'cock-a-hoop' over this developement, in particular Steinmeier, current Chairman of the OSCE.

As reported by Pavel Polityuk and Andrea Shalal,

The German and French foreign ministers said on Wednesday an attempt to revive a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine from midnight could set the scene for agreement next week on further peace moves.
...
The agreement is expected at a regular meeting on Tuesday of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) with both sides in the conflict. It would be monitored and verified by OSCE observers.
...
If the ceasefire holds and the agreement is signed as expected, the foreign ministers of France, Germany, Ukraine and Russia could meet in New York next week on the sidelines of a meeting of the United Nations General Assembly. (Mail Online (Reuters) : 14 September 2016) (my emphasis)  (right: Ayrault, Klimkin, and Steinmeier. Klimkin announcing new ceasefire in Donbas)

Let us now cast our minds back to April of 2015.

As reported by Alec Luhn,

"President Petro Poroshenko has endorsed a referendum on the federalisation of Ukraine, jumpstarting the reforms foreseen by the peace plan to end the conflict with Russia-backed rebels in the country’s east.
.....
But analysts and politicians in Kiev argue such a move would weaken the country and allow Moscow undue influence in its politics.
....
Poroshenko left no doubt where he stood on the issue, calling federalisation an “infection” that he hinted was being forced on the country by foreign powers, apparently referring to Russia. (The Guardian : Monday 6 April 2015) (my emphasis) (left: Poroshenko flanked by Volodymyr Groysman, left, and Arseniy Yatsenyuk in 2015)
 
Now against the fact that the Ukrainian parliament will vote soon on constitutional amendments granting autonomy to eastern Ukraine, the past few weeks have also seen that,

"Russia has deployed 70 replacement troops to reinforce the 9th separate assault motorized rifle regiment of the Marines Corps (militant-held Novoazovsk) of the 1st Army Corps (Donetsk) of Russia's Armed Forces and 50 replacement troops to enhance the 7th separate motorized rifle brigade (militant-held Luhansk ) of the 2nd Army Corps (Luhansk) of Russia's Armed Forces" (UT:  Aug. 8, 2016) 

As also reported by Chas Danner,

"Russia appears to be preparing for a new military offensive in Ukraine, according to the Institute for the Study of War, which notes that since August 5 there has been an ongoing Russian military buildup on the northern, eastern, and southern Ukrainian borders, allowing it “to threaten or conduct military operations into Ukraine from multiple directions, increasing Ukraine’s vulnerability to Russian or Russia-backed separatist forces.” (New York Magazine : August 13, 2016) (my emphasis)

Which raises the rather fundamental question viz.

"Since Minsk2 specifies that immediately after a full ceasefire there should be:

• Pull-out of all heavy weapons by both sides to equal distance with the aim of creation of a security zone on minimum 50 kilometres (31 mi) apart for artillery of 100mm calibre or more, and a security zone of 70 kilometres (43 mi) for multiple rocket launchers (MRLS) and 140 kilometres (87 mi) for MLRS Tornado-S, Uragan, Smerch, and Tochka U tactical missile systems:

• for Ukrainian troops, from actual line of contact;
• for armed formations of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine, from the contact line in accordance with the Minsk Memorandum as of 19 September 2014 The pullout of the above-mentioned heavy weapons must start no later than the second day after the start of the ceasefire and finish within 14 days.(Wikipedia)

why is Putin continuing to reinforce his Russian soldiers and rebel-proxies in the Donbas with yet more Russian soldiers and more heavy military equipment"????

Is Putin actually following in the footsteps of The Grand Old Duke of York nusery rhyme, who marched his men up the hill and then down again?

I rather think not!

As reported by Damien Sharkov,

"Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko called on the EU and the world’s biggest economies not to recognize Russia’s upcoming parliamentary elections, which treat Crimea as Russian territory.

This month Russians will elect 450 lawmakers to parliament, for the first time since Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014. The U.N. does not recognize the Russian government in Crimea as legitimate and Ukraine has protested any moves or statements that treat Russia’s authority on Crimea as anything but an illegal occupation." (Newsweek : 13 September, 2016) (my emphasis)

Added to which, this sudden announcement of a unilateral ceasefire by Putin's rebels in the Donbas, Zakharchenko and Plotnitskiy, signifies more than anything else that Putin is angered by the fact that,

"Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko on Thursday welcomed a decision by the International Monetary Fund to release additional aid worth $1 billion to Kiev, saying it showed that the world recognises that Ukraine was carrying out reforms.

The IMF's decision would also help keep the Ukrainian hryvnia currency stable and maintain macroeconomic stabilisation, Poroshenko said, adding that a Russian attempt to undermine the IMF's decision had failed." (Natalia Zinets : Reuters : Wed Sep 14, 2016) (my emphasis)

 As also reported by New China News,

"In August, official data showed that the Ukrainian gross domestic product (GDP) went up by 1.3 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2016, after rising 0.1 percent in the first quarter.

Although the figure was lower than the preliminary official estimates of 2.3-percent GDP growth in the second quarter, it has indicated that the economy had emerged from the crisis that started in the first quarter of 2014." (New China News : Xinhua: 31 August, 2016) (my emphasis)

By contrast,

• Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development has announced a new “baseline plus” plan for the Russian economy, despite concerns that the country's original economic strategy remains unbalanced, the Vedomosti business daily reported Tuesday. (Moscow Times : Aug. 30 2016) (my emphasis)
• The baseline plan will see the country's deficit rise significantly above the 3.2 percent target set out by the Finance Ministry. “This kind of policy means that demand will shrink, funds will become exhausted, and there will be nothing to eat,” the source said. (ibid Moscow Times)

Which leaves us with the question,

"Does Putin now want to hand back a totally devastated Donbas to Ukraine in the hope that this will destroy the current green shoots of recovery in the Ukrainian economy"?

(to be continued)