Is Putin now "banking $$$" on success in the German Chancellor and French Presidential elections in 2017?

Since the election success of Donald Trump for the US Presidency, the international political tectonic plates continues to grind out political uncertainties as Trump by-passes the US State Department by using Twitter as his diplomatic channel.

A Twitter account, it would seem, is now taking on the mantle of a prime diplomatic and propaganda tool of many in the political world.

Thus it is that as soon as Matteo Renzi lost in his bid to change the Italian political establishment, Marine Le Pen, Putin's French Admirer',  quickly 'tweeted' to her political followers that,

"The Italians have disavowed the EU and Renzi. We must listen to this thirst for freedom of nations.”

And whilst Renzi is now licking his political wounds, Putin is moving very fast to present the incoming President of the US, Donald Trump, with a 'fait accompli' over Ukraine.

This is best summed up by his 'dyed-in-the-wool' Soviet Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov.

As reported by UT,

‘I'll be honest, I don't understand why the so called anti-terrorist operation is still going on in Ukraine and the leaders of the self-proclaimed republics are called terrorists and separatists', Lavrov said, according to Russian media agencies. " (UT : Dec. 3, 2016) (my emphasis)

And whilst Lavrov is feigning confusion,

"Russia-backed militants fired at the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine 44 times over the past 24 hours in all sectors, Ukrainian Anti-Terrorist Operation HQ reprts.

Hardest situation noted again in the Mariupol sector. Here Russian proxies used the heavy artillery of 152mm and 122mm calibre, hitting Ukrainian positions in the villages of Shyrokyne and Berdianske. Also mortar shelling and light armour attacks reported in this direction." (UT : Dec. 3, 2016) (cf also Unian Information Agency : 03 December 2016)

But Putin is not quite having it all his own way.

As reported by Interfax-Ukraine,

"The U.S. House of Representatives has approved the issue of $3.42 billion to the Pentagon in the coming financial year within the initiative to support security in Europe, according to the Deutsche Welle edition, with reference to the document posted on the website of the U.S. Congress.

According to the publication, the United States plans to pass to the preferential support of partners and allies in Europe to contain the Russian Federation.

According to the document, it is also planned to limit military cooperation between the United States and Russia" (Interfax-Ukraine : 03.12.2016) (my emphasis)

Added to which,

"Ukraine says it has successfully completed the first of two days of missile tests over the Black Sea, west of the Crimea peninsula." (BBC News : 1 December 2016) (my emphasis)

As to be expected, and as reported by Tom Batchelor,

"VLADIMIR Putin's warships have been dispatched to Crimea's western coastline in response to the start of Ukrainian missile tests nearby, as tensions in the region reach fever pitch." (Expess : Fri, Dec 2, 2016) (my emphasis)

And at the latest round of talks in Minsk about the implementation of Minsk 2, RFE/RL reports that,

"Talks in Minsk on resolving the conflict in eastern Ukraine have ended with the foreign ministers of Russia, Ukraine, France, and Germany all saying no new breakthroughs were made.(left: Lavrov, Klimkin, Ayrault, Steinmeier) .....

Lavrov also rejected the idea of setting up a militarized monitoring mission in southeastern Ukraine under the auspices of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). (RFE/RL : November 29, 2016) (my emphasis)

This rejection of an 'armed' OSCE monitoring mission by Lavrov no doubt sits very well with the current President of the OSCE, none other than the Putinversteher Steinmeier himself.

And it is has also been reported by Andreas Rinke and Andrea Shalal that Steinmeier is on the brink of becoming Germany's next President.

"Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives agreed on Monday to back Social Democrat Frank-Walter Steinmeier as Germany's next president, creating a vacancy at the foreign ministry at a critical moment in relations with Russia and the United States." (Reuters : Mon Nov 14, 2016)

Luxembuger Wort then reported that,

"...... Steinmeier could be replaced by European Parliament president Martin Schulz (right), a Social Democrat, as foreign minister." (Luxembuger Wort: Monday, 14 November, 2016) (my emphasis)

Is Merkel replacing Putinversteher Steinmeier with  Putinversteher Schulz?

Both Steinmeier and Schulz are protégé 's of Gerhard Schröder, former Chancellor of Germany who now works for Putin's Gazprom.

Since 1999, Schulz has been part of the SPD leadership, first under party chairman Gerhard Schröder (1999–2004), and currently under Sigmar Gabriel. (Wikipedia)

Many in the German SDP would like to see Schulz face Merkel in next year's upcoming  elections for German chancellor. 

He would, however, have a tough battle on his hands against Merkel. Her popularity rating in Germany is something that many western politicians only dream about. (cf Politico: 25/11/16)

Putin may not be eyeing the upcoming German Chancellorship election as much as he will be eyeing the French presidential elections in May of next year.

Which brings us back to the 'Putin lover', Marine Le Pen.

Helene Fouquet reported that,

"Marine Le Pen’s National Front party is reaching out to Russian banks for the 25 million euros ($27.7 million) it needs to bankroll its 2017 presidential campaign, the party’s treasurer Wallerand de Saint Just said.

“I will look for funds where I know I might get them,” Saint Just said in a telephone interview. “I found some financing there in 2014, so yes I am going to try again.” (Bloomberg : February 19, 2016) (my emphasis)

Let us also not forget that,

"Le Pen's party received a loan of 11 million euro from a bank with ties to Russia in 2014. At that time, French politicians and media claimed that the loan bought the party's public support of Russia's actions in Ukraine, the Meduza news agency reported.

Le Pen's party claimed that the results of the Crimea referendum in 2014, followed by the annexation of the peninsula by Russia, were legitimate, and also criticized the implementation of European Union's sanctions against Russia over its actions in Ukraine." (The Moscow Times : Feb 19, 2016) (my emphasis)

Can Le Pen do a 'Donald Trump'?

Putin is banking ($$$) on it! 

(to be continued)

Will Putin's euphoria over the election of Trump be short-lived?

Flavien Schaller (left) was appointed Chief Observer of the OSCE Observer Mission at the Russian Checkpoints Gukovo and Donetsk on 1 May 2016. (OSCE )

And on 17 November, 2016, the US OSCE acknowledged to Flavien Schaller that,

"We [ ...] wish to express our appreciation for your leadership of a Mission that operates in difficult and restrictive conditions. Border monitoring by the OSCE is an integral part of the Minsk agreements, and is indispensable to de-escalating the fighting and assessing Russia’s willingness to end its intervention in Ukraine. (US OSCE : 17 November, 2016) (my emphasis)

Furthermore that,

"The [OSCE] Observer Mission has observed more than 30,000 [Russian] individuals in military-style dress crossing just at the two checkpoints to which it has access. (ibid US OSCE) (my emphasis)

This dramatically puts into perspective the fact that, 

"[The OSCE border mission in the Donbas under Flavien Schaller ] remains limited to two out of eleven checkpoints on the border between Russia and separatist-held parts of Ukraine" (ibid US OSCE) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile, the EU is still coming to grips with the Trump presidential victory, as expressed by the 'fragrant' Federica Mogherini, the EU’s foreign policy chief.

 

 

"Ms Mogherini said relations between the Kremlin and Brussels are not “black and white” and the EU was pursuing “constructive but also selective engagement” with Russia.

She added: “There is a strong principled position especially on Ukraine and on the other conflicts that we have to our east and our attention to our eastern partners is going to stay and stay strong.” (Cyrus Engineer : Sunday Express : Mon, Nov 14, 2016) (my emphasis)

And whilst the EU is still coming to grips with the Trump presidential victory,

"The OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine has seen the biggest number of ceasefire violations along the frontline in Donbas in 2016, the mission's Principal Deputy Chief Monitor Alexander Hug (left) said on Thursday..
...
"Last week the number of ceasefire violations, seen by the OSCE mission, has risen by 160% comparing to the previous situation. This is the biggest number of shellings since the beginning of the year," he claimed during a briefing in Kyiv." (UT : Nov. 17, 2016) (my emphasis)

Putin is accelerating his onslaught against Ukraine as yet more of his Russian soldiers pour across the Donbas border where the OSCE is prevented from monitoring, whilst the EU continues to vacillate to give Ukraine the military assistance that it needs to defend itself against this onslaught of Putin's.

This is best expressed by retired Marine Corps Gen. James Mattis (right), who stated that,

"... Russia’s military moves against its neighbors—taking Crimea and backing separatists in Ukraine is "much more severe, more serious" than Washington and the European Union are treating it." (Unian : 19 November 2016) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile Donald Tusk (left), current President of the EU, in a call to president-elect Donald Trump, has,

"... stressed the need for transatlantic cooperation on Ukraine during a phone call Friday with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump ..

...

"Tusk congratulated Trump on his election, invited him for an EU-US summit and emphasized transatlantic cooperation including regarding Ukraine," (Unian : 19 November 2016) (my emphasis)

The Putin-friendly 'fragrant' Mogherini and Donald Tusk seem to underscore what James Mattis has said, namely that " ...  Russia’s military moves against its neighbors—taking Crimea and backing separatists in Ukraine is "much more severe, more serious" than Washington and the European Union are treating it."

There is, however, a 'silver lining' for Ukraine with some of president-elect Trump's recent government appointments.

"Trump said in a statement he had chosen Representative Mike Pompeo (right) (Republican-Kansas) to be CIA director ...

...

Pompeo, who is currently a member of the House Intelligence Committee is known in particular for his statements in support of Ukraine in its resistance to Russian aggression.

In April 2014, Mike Pompeo visited Ukraine and then stated that the aim of Russian President Vladimir Putin was to take control over Ukraine." (Unian : 18 November 2016) (my emphasis)

Then there is the possibility that,

"President-elect Donald Trump is very interested in the idea of having retired Marine Gen. James Mattis (see above) serve in his administration and he can be considered a leading candidate for secretary of defense, an official familiar with the transition process told CNN Saturday." (Phil Mattingly : CNN : November 20, 2016) (my emphasis)

Trump is also flirting with the possiblity of Mitt Romney as his Secretary of State, a key position in his upcoming administration.

Trump met with Romney yesterday, and they had,

"...  a far-reaching conversation with regards to the various theaters in the world where there are interests of the United States of real significance," Romney said. "We discussed those areas and exchanged our views on those topics — a very thorough and in-depth discussion in the time we had and, I appreciated the chance to speak with the president-elect and look forward to the coming administration." (Ledyard King : USA Today : November 19, 2016) (my emphasis)

However, as reported by VOA,

"Trump’s and Romney’s positions on U.S. relations with Russia have differed noticeably. Romney said in 2012 that Russia was America’s “No. 1 geopolitical foe,” but President-elect Trump has spoken warmly about the possibility of close cooperation with Russian President Vladimir Putin in a campaign to destroy the Islamic State group.

After speaking by telephone with Putin earlier this week, Trump said he anticipates a “strong and enduring relationship with Russia.” (VOA : November 19, 2016)

Until such time as the complete Trump administration appointments are finalised, much of what may be anticipated about his choice of appointments is, at this stage, rather speculative.

To this extent, the euphoria of Putin, his 'siloviki', and the Russian Duma, when Trump was elected, may be rather short-lived.

The future prospects of Ukraine hangs by a slender thread.

(to be continued)

The similarities between Putin and Trump bodes ill for Ukraine

In September of 1999 Sharon LaFraniere reported on a case, the Mabatex Affair, that threatened to bring down the then Yeltsin presidency. As she reported,

"A Swiss investigation has uncovered evidence that a construction company that received major Kremlin contracts paid tens of thousands of dollars of bills charged to credit cards in the names of Russian President Boris Yeltsin and his two daughters, according to law enforcement authorities.(left: Yeltsin with his youger daughter, Tatyana Borisovna Yumasheva)

The company, a Swiss firm called Mabetex, also provided $1 million that was transferred several years ago to a Hungarian bank account intended for Yeltsin's benefit, the authorities said." (Washington Post : Wednesday, September 8, 1999) (my emphasis) 

She further reported that,

"Acting on information from a businessman angry with a former Mabetex executive, del Ponte went looking for bank accounts and credit cards allegedly provided by Mabetex to Russian government officials. Yuri Skuratov (right), then Russia's chief prosecutor, formally asked for del Ponte's help in November." (ibid  Sharon LaFraniere) (my emphasis)

Coming to the rescue of Yeltsin and his daughters was non other than Putin himself, then head of the FSB.

Putin used a sex-sting against Yuri Skuratov, that ultimately led to Skuratov being dismissed as Russia's Chief Prosecutor. 

 And so Yeltsin and his daughters, together with other corrupt officials in the then Kremlin, sighed with relief. And Putin's springboard into the presidency of Russia was set.

Fast forward to 2016, and we have another sex-sting that was committed in the summer of 2004 against the Democratic Governor of New Jersey, Jim McGreevey (right), and that ultimately led to his resignation as Govenor.

And at the very epicentre of this 2004 scandal was the father of Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law who is married to his daughter, Ivanka Trump.

Jared Kushner married Ivanka Trump whilst his father was still in prison for masterminding the sex sting that he committed against Governor Jim McGreevey.

And Jared Kushner is now one of Donald Trump's closest advisors.

Indeed, "Mr Trump has already replaced New Jersey Governor Chris Christie with Vice-President-elect Mike Pence as head of his transition team.

Media reports say Mr Trump's son-in-law and close adviser Jared Kushner was behind the change." (BBC News : 16/11/2016) (my emphasis)

The similarities between Putin's rise to the presidency of Russia, and Trump's vindictiveness in dealing with his enemies, bodes ill for the future of Ukraine. They are truly joined at the hip!

Let us now cast our minds back to the links that were forged between Turkey and Poroshenko following the shooting down by Turkey of a Russian fighter plane that invaded its air space.

As recently reported by Gunay Hasanova,

"Turkey and Ukraine seek to advance in talks on free trade agreement, the signing of which can give an impulse for deepening trade ties between the two countries.
...
Turkey is one of the most important trade partners of Ukraine, while the country ranked the 5th among Ukraine’s trade partners in the first half of 2016." (Azernews : Wednesday November 16 2016) (my emphasis)

At the same time, Sputnik News reports that,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan discuss the most sensitive topics related to the situation in the region and bilateral relations; it indicates high level of mutual trust, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Saturday." (Sputnik News : 22.10.2016) (my emphasis)

 Then we have Erdogan's first reaction to the Trump victory.

"Erdogan’s first reaction to Trump’s victory was welcoming. Addressing a business forum in Istanbul on Nov. 9, he said that a new era was opening with America’s choice, and he wanted to consider this an auspicious occasion." (Semih Idiz (left): Al-Monitor : November 15, 2016) (my emphasis)

Perhaps the auspiciousness that Erdogan was referring to lies in the fact that retired General Michael Flynn (right), Trump's military and intelligence advisor,  

".... was recently hired as a lobbyist by an obscure Dutch company with ties to Turkey’s government and its president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan." ( Michael Rubin : Newsweek : 16/11/2016) (my emphasis)

 
There is thus a great deal of uncertainty about how Donald Trump, and the current small band of advisors that he has already choosen to surround himself with, will deal with the war between Putin and Ukraine.

What we can be certain of is that Trump and Putin are kindred spirits.

Young Girl At Maidan 2014

(to be continued)

Will Putin now set in motion his final act of the total destabilization of Ukraine, before he has to confront president-elect Donald Trump?

In 1964, in the lead up to the British election, Harold Wilson (left) is supposed to have coined the famous phrase, ‘A week is a long time in politics.’

It is now a week since the election of Donald Trump to the presidency of the US, and the international reverberations of his election to the most powerful political office in the world has brought Harold Wilson's famous phrase vividly to life.

For Ukraine it spells possible disaster.

Already Trump's first official appointments are causing some consternation.

As reported by the BBC,

"Reince Priebus (bottom left), chairman of the Republican National Committee (RNC), will be his chief of staff.

In this role, he will set the tone for the new White House and act as a conduit to Congress and the government.

Stephen Bannon (top left), from the Breitbart News Network, will serve as Mr Trump's chief strategist." (BBC News : 14/11/2016)

Given that Stephen Bannon was Trump's campaign chief, we should all wonder at the recent revelation from Dmitry Peskov (right) that,

 "...Peskov said Russian experts were in contact with some members of Trump’s staff during the campaign, but he reiterated that the Russian government and security agencies had nothing to do with the cyberattacks. A Trump spokeswoman denied there were any contacts between the campaign and “any foreign entity.” (WTOP (Associated Press) : November 10, 2016) (my emphasis)

Even more disconcerting,

"Peskov said the two leaders are “very much alike … in their basic approaches toward international affairs.” He noted that Putin and Trump had used almost the same language in recent weeks to stress that their country came first but they were ready to have good relations with the rest of the world." (ibid WTOP) (my emphasis)

Which rather puts into perspective the fact that,

"Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko congratulated Donald Trump on his election win by inviting the newly minted U.S. president-elect to visit the war-torn, Eastern European country." (UT :
Nov. 11, 2016) (my emphasis)

With Stephen Bannon now esconced as Trump's chief strategist, who must have been aware that Russian experts were in contact with some of Trump's staff during the election campaign and who did NOTHING to stop these contacts, the very idea of Trump taking up Poroshenko up on his invitation about visiting Ukraine is vanishingly small.

Such optimism on the part of Poroshenko stems primarily from the fact that whilst Trump may have lauded Putin as a 'strong' leader, it is believed that Putin will not be able to confront Trump threateningly as he has done with Obama. 

For Putin, Trump is a 'wild card'.

And whilst the eyes of the world are focussed on Donald Trump,

"Russia has been preparing a large-scale action to destabilize the situation in Ukraine starting from November15, head of the national statehood protection department of Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) Anatoliy Dublik told journalists in Kyiv on Friday." (UT : Nov. 11, 2016) (my emphasis)

Will Putin now set in motion his final act of the total destabilization of Ukraine, before he has to confront president-elect Donald Trump?

(to be continued)

Putin popping champange corks as Trump becomes US President.

In my blog entry of 2nd November I wrote that,

"As stated before, Putin is wishing for a Trump victory in the US presidential race. He stated so rather openly at his recent annual 3+ hour marathon session at Valdai.

"Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump behaved extravagantly during his campaign because he represented ordinary voters and wanted to get his message across. 

  

"He has chosen a method to get through to voters' hearts," Putin told foreign policy experts in southern Russia.

  

"He (Trump) behaves extravagantly of course, we see this, but I think there's a reason for this."(Reuters : Thu Oct 27, 2016)

Trump , but a few moments ago, and against all predictions, has won the race to become the next president of the US. 

 And one can imagine that the champange corks are now popping in the Kremlin, thanks to Trump's victory, and thanks to his direct links to Putin and the Kremlin.

 

This Trump win will now enable Putin to unleash his forces against Ukraine without having to concern himself about an American response or, for that matter, any credible response from the EU. 

We can now also expect that the economic millstone of US sanctions around Putin's neck will very soon be removed. 

 

Trump's election success will also add to the clamour of Putin's supporters in the EU that EU sanctions against Putin be dropped.

This is best expressed by EU president Martin Schulz, who said that,

"The election of Donald Trump as the United States' 45th president will make work "harder" for the European Union" (Tara Cunningham : The Telegraph Business : 9 November 2016)

But perhaps the most disturbing and rather ominous threat to Ukraine comes from Nigel Farage (below with Trump), who has put himself forward to be Donald Trump’s envoy in Brussels if Trump takes the White House, stating that,

 “Well I am hoping [that Trump will] be in need of a proper Eurosceptic ambassador in Brussels to the European Union.

“I would rather like that job.”

 He added, acknowledging the convention that ambassadors are representatives of their own country: "Being a foreigner will not disqualify me. As long as we can bring the EU down, it doesn't matter how we do it." (Cyrus Engineer : Express : Wed, Nov 9, 2016)

If this wish of Nigel Farage does, indeed, now come true, then the revolution of Maidan, and all that followed from it, will come to naught since the revolution was precipitated by the wish of the Ukrainian people to join the EU, the very EU that Farage wishes to destroy, thus fulfilling the wish of Putin himself.

The future of Ukraine now hangs by a very slender thread indeed.

(to be continued)

Putin, Ukraine, and the US presidential race.

The US presidential election is now reaching its final stages, and the world is watching closely. Yet it could never have been predicted that the 'humble' email could become such a critical, and possibly determining, factor in these elections.

And while Russian hackers were busy trying to completely derail the Clinton campaign,

"A group of Ukrainian hackers has released thousands of emails from an account used by a senior Kremlin official that appear to show close financial and political ties between Moscow and separatist rebels in Eastern Ukraine.

The cache published by the Ukrainian group CyberHunta reveals contacts between President Vladimir Putin's adviser Vladislav Surkov (left) and the pro-Russia rebels fighting Ukrainian forces."
....
The email cache includes messages sent to Surkov by separatist leader Denis Pushilin with rebel casualty lists and expenses for the operation of a press center in the rebel capital, Donetsk.
...
Another email from the office of Russian billionaire Konstantin Malofeev, who reportedly has ties to the rebels, contains a list of ministers in the separatist government prior to their official announcement. (The Telegraph : 27 October 2016) (my emphasis)

With the eyes of the world are focussed on the US presidential elections,

"During the last day of the Russia-backed forces launched 53 attacks and fire raids on Ukrainian army positions, Anti-Terrorist Operation HQ informs.

The tensest situation reported on Mariupol direction – 28 militant attacks took place here. The enemy used mortars of all kinds here and artillery of 122mm calibre." (UT : Oct. 30, 2016)

Also reported by UT,

"Russian proxies are attacking all over the frontline in Donetsk region, spokesman of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry Col. Andriy Lysenko told at the today's briefing.

The most powerful enemy shelling from the Donetsk direction traditionally held in the town of Avdiyivka. It lasted 4 hours continuously, mortars and light weapons were used." (UT : Oct. 31, 2016) (my emphasis)

More menacingly,

"The missile bunkers that dot the verdant hills along Crimea’s southern coast are known locally as Object 100. Now the bunkers are coming back online.
...
After Russia took control of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014, signs went up in the woods around the sites warning visitors against entering a “forbidden zone of the Russian Ministry of Defence.
...
The bunkers are just one small part of a new Russian programme to militarise the Crimean peninsula."

Britain’s Defence Minister Michael Fallon (left) said in September that London was concerned about military buildup in Crimea “and indeed the militarisation of the Black Sea region generally. Both Bulgaria and Romania feel very threatened.” (Reuters : Nov. 1, 2016) (my emphasis)

 And it is now reported by Patrick Knox that,

"Ukraine’s armed services are working round the clock to dig trenches, install tank traps, road blocks and to build bunkers to repel an invasion.

But its military chiefs now fear a knock-out onslaught from the sky after they detected a massive Russian carrying out dummy runs on key installations.

Defence Intelligence Vadym Skibytskiy said: “The Russian leadership does not give up its aggressive plans for Ukraine, continuing to prepare for a possible large-scale offensive against our country.

“On October 26, using the obligations of the Republic of Belarus as an allied state, Russian combat aircraft worked out possible massive air strikes on strategic targets on the territory of Ukraine in the airspace of Belarus.” (The Sun : 1st November 2016) (my emphasis)

Which brings us back to the US presidential elections.

Clemence Michallon reports that,

"A server at the Trump Organization may have communicated secretively with Russia, a group of computer scientists believe.
....
The communications, according to the experts, followed the pattern of human exchanges, as opposed to automated conversations. They occurred during office hours in New York and Moscow and showed a 'sustained relationship' between the server registered to Trump Organization and Alfa Bank, Slate reported.

'The parties were communicating in a secretive fashion. The operative word is secretive. This is more akin to what criminal syndicates do if they are putting together a project,' internet pioneer and DNS author Paul Vixie told Slate." (Mail Online : 1 November 2016) (cf : Franklin Foer : Slate article, and Colin Taylor : October 31, 2016)

Could it be this that has led Hillary Clinton to recently call for a FBI investigation into Donald Trump's links with Putin's Russia?

As stated before, Putin is wishing for a Trump victory in the US presidential race. He stated so rather openly at his recent annual 3+ hour marathon session at Valdai. 

"Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump behaved extravagantly during his campaign because he represented ordinary voters and wanted to get his message across. 

  

"He has chosen a method to get through to voters' hearts," Putin told foreign policy experts in southern Russia.

  

"He (Trump) behaves extravagantly of course, we see this, but I think there's a reason for this."(Reuters : Thu Oct 27, 2016)

Which puts into perspective the current uptick of attacks against Ukrainian forces by Putin's Russian soldiers and proxies in the Donbas, as well as his military buildup in Crimea.

A Trump win would enable him to unleash his forces against Ukraine without having to concern himself about an American response or, for that matter, any credible response from the EU.

On the other hand, a Clinton victory would caution him against such a reckless act, whilst at the same time presenting a President Clinton with a fait accompli regarding his military buildup in Crimea.

We will then see Putin throwing even more resources into getting the building of his land-bridge between Russia and Crimea speeded up.

(to be continued)

Putin cannot afford to lose in his war with Ukraine

In my blog entry of 17 October, I quoted Russian political scientist Dmitry Oreshkin (left) stating that,

"...  Putin has nothing to offer his people to gain their support and to consolidate public opinion except “militaristic rhetoric and short victorious wars.”  But the effect of those wars – and there have been three so far – quickly exhausts itself." (Paul Goble : 15 October, 2016)

And so it is that the Normandy Four meeting, with the participation of Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany, and which took place in Berlin on the night of 19-20 October, seems to indicate that for Putin, at least, his war with Ukraine in the Donbas has somewhat exhausted itself.

It no longer serves the initially prime purpose of propping up himself and his 'siloviki'.  It has now become counter-productive. 

As reported by UNIAN,

"We often repeat like a mantra these days that the notorious sanctions are having little impact. But they do have an impact. We feel this above all in restrictions on technology transfers," he said at the eighth Russia Calling! Investment Forum organized by VTB Capital on Wednesday, October 12." (UNIAN :12 October 2016) (my emphasis)

Some of the long-term effects of the current impact of sanctions on Putin's Russian economy is best described by Russia's Economic Ministry projecting by just how much the Russian economy will stagnate over the next twenty years.

"Coming out of the recession in 2017, the economy in the next 20 years will grow very slowly - an average of 2% per year (from 1.7 to a maximum of 2.6%). It is about 1.5 times below the world average rates: thus Russia will all be shifted closer to the poorest countries. Increase GDP in 20 years will only be 1.5 times. Real incomes will rise by an average of 1.4% per year and will be released at the level of 2013 only in 2021, in 2035 it exceeded by less than 30%. For comparison, the same amount they have grown in 2006-2007." (Vedomosti :20.10.2016) (Google Translated from Russian) (my emphasis)

Yet, emerging from the Berlin Normandy Four meeting on the night of 19-20 October we have a 'roadmap'.

This 'roadmap', aimed at reviving the stalled peace process in eastern Ukraine must, according to Poroshenko,

".....  foresees consistency and guarantees. Implementing the security conditions, a ceasefire, withdrawing foreign troops, respect for the removal of military equipment, providing easy access for the OSCE, releasing hostages should go before the implementation of the political part." (Olena Makarenko (right) : Euromaidan Press : 20/10/2016) (my emphasis)

And herein lies the rub, rather succinctly expressed by Vitaliy Portnikov (left),

"And here the dialog stops because Hollande and Merkel clearly understand that without disarming criminals and a withdrawal of Russian troops, no elections are possible. But Putin understands just as clearly that after the disarmament of the criminals and withdrawal the Russian troops he does not need any elections. He will simply lose Donbas as a leverage of influence on Ukraine,” (ibid Olena Makarenko) (my emphasis)

More significantly,

"It is necessary to boost the efficiency of the OSCE monitoring mission and an armed police mission is needed there. Before the elections, we must have control over the border on the part of a permanent OSCE armed mission," [Poroshenko] said in an interview with the Ukraina television channel commenting on the results of the latest Normandy Four summit in Berlin." (Tass :  October 23, 2016) (my emphasis) (my emphasis)

It is therefore no wonder that Putin's Russian soldiers and rebel proxies continue to launch attacks against Ukrainian positions.

As reported by UT,

"Combined Russian-separatist forces attacked Ukrainian army positions in eastern Ukraine 35 times in the past day - 20 in the Mariupol sector, nine barrages in the Luhansk sector, and six in the Donetsk sector – including four artillery attacks." (UT : Oct. 24, 2016) (my emphasis)

Putin has nowhere else to go except to continue with his military action against Ukraine.

Furthermore, Putin has to,

"... stick to his “classical line” – Ukraine must implement the political package first, including changes to the Constitution, the law on amnesty, and “direct negotiations” with the Russian mercenaries." (Vitaliy Portnikov (ibid Olena Makarenko)) (my emphasis)

Like the narcissistic Donald Trump on the verge of losing the US presidential race to Hillary Clinton, Putin cannot afford to lose in his war with Ukraine, no matter what the cost to the Russian people.

(to be continued)

Putin has nothing to offer Poroshenko except “militaristic rhetoric"

Three days ago (14/10/2016) Putin's Russian press in both Russia and the occupied territory of the Donbass reported that,

"The Ukrainian combat helicopter shot down by the DPR forces landed in the area of Krasnogorovka occupied by the AFU. It was stated by Eduard Basurin, the DPR Operative Command Deputy Commander. " (Dninews: Saturday, October 15, 2016)

Similarly, TASS reported that,

"The militia command of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) has received information that the helicopter downed by the militia on Thursday, was carrying some instructors from NATO’s member states, the DPR Operations Command Spokesman Eduard Basurin told journalists on Friday." (TASS : October 14,2016) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile, as Putin's proxy soldiers in the Donbass are reporting that,

"The DPR Operative Command specified that the area of the combat helicopter’s fall was cordoned off at that moment. Moreover, mobile communication did not work there." (ibid Dninews) (my emphasis),

the Ukrainian Defense Ministry,

".....  has denied the shoot down of one of its helicopters in Donbass, says it does not use helicopters for military ops" (Liveuamap : 14 October, 2016) (my emphasis)

At the same time the OSCE, in its information received as of 19:30, 14 October 2016

from its Special Monitoring Mission in the Donbass, did not include the shooting down of a helicopter by Putin's rebel proxy forces.

Given that Putin's rebel proxies in the Donbass stated that this helicopter was "carrying some instructors from NATO’s member states", the absolute deart of an international outcry about this helicopter downing contrasts with the international outcry in the case of the shooting down of the airliner MH17 (right) by Putin's forces in the Donbass on 17 July 2014 that killed all 283 passengers and 15 crew on board, and questions the veracity of Putin's propaganda machine about this alleged "helicopter shooting down".

What we do know is that,

"The Mariupol sector has ... suffered 18 attacks for the past 24 hours. The cities of Maryinka, Shyrokyne and Krasnogorivka were hotspots for militant shelling. Mortars, armored fighting vehicles, grenade launchers and machine guns were used in that direction.

In the Donetsk sector, Ukrainian Armed Forces have been fired 6 times. Grenade launchers and small arms shelling into Ukrainian soldiers in Troitske and Avdiivka were noted." (UT : Oct. 16, 2016) (my emphasis)

What we also know is that Putin continues to pour his Russian soldiers and armaments into the Donbass.

And according to Pavel Felgenhauer (left), a Russian military analyst,

"Putin Likely to Expand Russian Invasion of Ukraine in January [2017].

... an attack on Odessa more likely [as opposed to an attack on Mariupol] especially since “many in Russia consider [Odessa] a Russian city” and because its “’liberation’” would trigger a patriotic explosion much like the annexation of Crimea." (Joel Harding (right): To Inform Is To Influence : October 15, 2016) (my emphasis)

This would tie-in with the militaristic hysteria that Putin is foisting upon the Russian people as Russia continues to aimlessly meander in the quagmire of an economic depression.

However, according to Sergey Shelin (left),

"The militaristic hysteria the Kremlin has unleashed in order to frighten the West and win support at home “does not have real causes and looks like an improvisation by the leader and his advisors” tragically is “getting out of control” and could by itself lead to disaster ... " (Paul Goble : Window on Eurasia : Sunday, October 16, 2016) (my emphasis)

Shelin further argues that,

"As far as Ukraine is concerned. No one ever expected the Minsk accords to be fulfilled; and they aren’t being and won’t however much Moscow blusters." (ibid Paul Goble)

Which raises the important question viz.

"What will the invitation of Angela Merkel to Putin, Hollande, and Poroshenko to dinner in Berlin on October 19 really achieve when Poroshenko has not agreed to participate in a 'Normandy Four' summit until a roadmap envisaging compliance with the Minsk security provisions is coordinated?" (UT :

Is Merkel, yet again, providing Putin with a diplomatic platform to, in the words of Sergey Shelin, "bluster" about the Minsk2 protocols? 

As reported by the Jerusalem Post,

"German Chancellor Angela Merkel is in regular contact with Russian President Vladimir Putin about the conflict in eastern Ukraine and the war in Syria, a government spokesman said on Friday." (Jerusalem Post (Reuters): 14/10/2016) (my emphasis), yet again underlining the Putinversteher German mentality

Shelin is correct when he states that, "No one ever expected the Minsk accords to be fulfilled; and they aren’t being and won’t .. " (cf also: UT : Oct. 12, 2016 :  "Red lines" of Minsk agreements for Ukraine: analysts' warning)

Yet many political analysts are now arguing that Putin's militaristic hysteria and his preparing the Russian people for war is merely a show to boost his support in Russia.

And they may be right.

According to Russian political scientist Dmitry Oreshkin (right),

"...  Putin has nothing to offer his people to gain their support and to consolidate public opinion except “militaristic rhetoric and short victorious wars.”  But the effect of those wars – and there have been three so far – quickly exhausts itself." (Paul Goble : 15 October, 2016) (my emphasis)

Valery Solovey (left) is even more forthright. According to him,

" ... “the powers that be in Russia are not very firm. They try to give the impression of a strong, self-confident and even brutal state. But this is an exaggeration, an attempt to frighten the external world and Russian society” (ibid Paul Goble : 15 Oct) (my emphasis)

Yet .....

"[t]here are some unsettling things Russia has done, however, to give the impression that war is looming. (UT : Oct. 15, 2016) (my emphasis)

Is this a prelude to attack Odessa, as  Pavel Felgenhauer predicts?

(to be continued)