"Is Putin now beginning to run scared?"

To understand Putin's growing anxieties about the sanctions against himself and his Kremlin 'siloviki', one need look no further than the rather dire straits of the Russian economy.

 As reported by Paul Goble, (left)

• According to a new study by the IMF, 33.7 percent of the Russian economy is outside of the legal sphere ... 
• A new investigation by the Russian Academy of Economics and State Service finds that more than 90 percent of Russian industry now depends in whole or in part on imports, a major reason for concern at a time of sanctions (my emphasis)
• In many countries, consumer spending drives economic growth, but in Russia today, the share of the population which is poor is so high that this is not the case (my emphasis).
  
•  A Russian business group says that its analysis shows that conditions for the operation of businesses are far worse in the Russian Federation than they are in Kazakhstan or Belarus 

TASS now also reports that,

"The outcome of the latest meeting between Russian president’s aide Vladislav Surkov and US Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations Kurt Volker is not hopeless, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov (right) said in an interview ...  on Sunday." 
...
"Not long ago, they had another meeting. I would say that the outcome is not hopeless," the Russian top diplomat noted. "They agreed to continue such talks." (TASS : 11 February, 2018) (my emphasis)

More ominously, however, is the fact that Lavrov also recently stated that,

" .....Russia would "draw conclusions" in connection with the U.S. weapons supplies to Ukraine.

“It is also an objective fact that representatives of Donetsk and Luhansk are looking closely at this, being able to stand up for themselves. I believe this must also be kept in mind," Lavrov said. (UNIAN : 11 February,2018) (my emphasis)

Lavrov continued,

"I believe that the one who will take the first step toward scrapping the Minsk agreements will make a colossal mistake. 
...
In fact, the Kyiv authorities are only one step away from this mistake, that’s if they finally pass the law on reintegration, which they now passed in the second reading. We'll see," said Lavrov." (ibid UNIAN) (my emphasis)

Responding to these 'veiled threats' of Lavrov, a spokesperson for the Foreign Ministry of Ukraine, Mariana Betsa (left), wrote on Twitter.

"Scrapping the Minsk agreements is non-fulfillment by Russia, by their side, of their obligations, and the ongoing aggression," (UNIAN : 11 February, 2018) (my emphasis)
 
The 'Law on Reintegration' being referred to by Lavrov basically states that,

[Russia shall be held liable for moral, financial or physical damage inflicted on the State of Ukraine, government authorities and local self-government agencies, individuals and legal entities. 

According to the draft law, the launch and completion of measures to ensure national security and defense, repel and deter Russia's armed aggression in Donetsk and Luhansk regions shall be enacted by separate decisions by the President of Ukraine. (ibid UNIAN)]

And underlining Mariana Betsa's statement, Stephen Blank (right) argues that,

"Russia refuses to accept a negotiated outcome that entails its retreat from the Donbas or Crimea. Moscow now insists that Ukraine accede to the suicidal Minsk II agreement that would effectively convert Ukraine into a confederation whose sovereignty could be punctured at any point by the Donbas" (The Atlantic Council: January 24, 2018) (my emphasis) 

And whilst Putin's Russian economy is going South, and that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, is trying to put a positive gloss on the Volker-Surkov meetings about Ukraine, whilst also issuing 'veiled threats' about sending more sophisticated arms to Putin's Russian soldiers and proxies in the Ukrainian Donbas, TASS also reports that,

"Russia’s National Guard [created by Putin in 2016], also known as Rosgvardiya, said it would crack down on unauthorized rallies during the [2018] Russian presidential election, Head of the National Guard’s Main Directorate for Public Order Protection Alexey Zinin told reporters on Thursday." (TASS : January 18,2018)

As also recently reported by the BBC, 

"Russian President Vladimir Putin has called for elite soldiers in a new force - the National Guard - to protect the country's regional governors."
 ....
"The National Guard, launched last year [2016], is headed by Mr Putin's ex-bodyguard Viktor Zolotov, a longstanding ally. (left: Zolotov and Putin)
...
"Mr Putin has previously warned that Russia must protect itself from "colour revolutions" like those that toppled presidents in neighbouring Ukraine, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan." (BBC : November 2017) (my emphasis) 

Joe Ankier 6 April, 2016

Which rather raises the question,

"Why is Putin suddenly 'beefing up' his 'National Guard' with a force of elite soldiers, whilst at the same time threatening to counter the Javelin anti-tank missiles sent to Ukraine by the US by sending more sophisticated arms to his Russian soldiers and proxies in the Donbas?"

"Is Putin now beginning to run scared?"

(to be continued)

Putin now lives on 'hopes' ...

Angela Merkel has finally managed to create a coalition government with Martin Schulz, leader of the SPD party.

But in the process she has had to relinquish CDU control of the Finance and Foreign Affairs Ministries to the SDP.

As reported by Will Kirby,

"Martin Schulz, (left) the embattled leader of the Social Democrats (SPD), will take over as foreign minister in a move likely to infuriate the German voters who opted for more eurosceptic parties in last year’s election." (Express : Wed, Feb 7, 2018) (my emphasis)

 This is the same Martin Schulz who,

• Speaking in December [2017], Mr Schulz called on EU member states to sign up to a “United States of Europe” by 2025 or risk being kicked out of the bloc. (ibid Will Kirby) (my emphasis)

•  ... stated as recently as 5 months ago (September 2017), “The way I see the situation, Russians have turned it [Putin's illegal annexation of Ukrainian Crimea] into an accomplished fact and they will insist on it,” he said. Schulz added that Crimea’s reunification with Russia was a “serious violation of international law” although Russian president Putin has insisted that the referendum that was held to join Russia, had been strictly in accordance with international law." (Free West Media : September 2, 2017) (my emphasis)

• ... and in 2016, stated that, "Sanctions will be maintained and they will continue to be applied until Minsk agreements are completely fulfilled," - said Schulz in his doorstep statement before the start of the EU summit, adding that the Minsk deal must be implemented by all parties to the conflict." (UNIAN : 20 October 2016) (my emphasis)

But hardly had Schulz time to warm the seat as Germany's new Foreign Minister when he had to relinquish this dream of his following being attacked by his predecessor as [SDP] party leader, Sigmar Gabriel (right), who is also the outgoing foreign minister.

As reported by  Ivo Oliveira,

"But when the new coalition deal was announced on Wednesday, it swiftly became clear that Schulz intended to become foreign minister. On Friday, Schulz bowed to the backlash against his plan.

“I hereby forgo joining the federal government,” he said. “At the same time, I sincerely hope that this will end the personnel debates within the SPD.” (Politico : 9 February, 2018) (my emphasis)

 Let us not forget, however, that this same Sigmar Gabriel who denounced Martin Schulz, is also in full support of  Putin's controversial plan to build Nord Stream 2 between Russia and Germany, and which could lead to German companies coming under the threat of being sanctioned by the US.

As reported by Matthew Karnitschnig,

“Now is a good time for us to intensify our economic cooperation,” Gabriel said during a visit to St. Petersburg in late November [2017]. “We’ve always known Russia as an especially reliable gas supplier.” (Politico : 13/12/17) (my emphasis)


Putin cannot, however, rest assured that Trump will not impose sanctions against those German companies helping him to complete his Nord Stream 2 project since Trump is having a "bad hair day" with the Mueller investigation into the collusion between himself and Trump during the 2016 US presidential elections.

Just as Nixon tried to get rid of Archibald Cox, a special prosecutor appointed by the attorney general to investigate the Watergate burglary, and that ultimately led to Nixon resigning from the US presidency, Trump is now also attempting to set the scene for him being able to fire Robert Mueller from investigating the collusion between Putin and himself during the 2016 US presidential election.

Trump's desperation to protect his presidency, like Nixon before him, is however leading him closer to the scaffold of impeachment.

Putin can only hope that whoever becomes the next Foreign Minister of Germany will be sympathetic towards BOTH the completion of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline AND his 'fait accompli' annexation of Ukrainian Crimea.

He also hopes that Trump manages to rid himself of Mueller and the 'Russia Investigation' into his collusion with the Trump campaign during the 2016 US presidential elections without Trump, in the process, being impeached.

(to be continued)

Putin receiving his first paycheck from Trump

Donald Trump has given his State Of The Union (SOTU) address yesterday, following his announcement on Monday that,

"The Trump administration told Congress on Monday [29 Jan., 2018] that bipartisan legislation passed last year authorizing new sanctions on Russia is already "serving as a deterrent," and there's no need to actually implement the penalties at this time.“By limiting the executive’s flexibility, this bill makes it harder for the United States to strike good deals for the American people, and will drive China, Russia, and North Korea much closer together,” Trump said in a statement at the time. (Olivia Beavers : The Hill : 29 Jan., 2018) (cf. also : Rob Crilly : The Telegraph : 30 Jan., 2018)

Putin is finally publicly receiving his 'payback' from Trump for helping him win the US presidency.

Throughout yesterday's SOTU address Trump was deafeningly silent about  Putin's direct interference in the 2016 US presidential elections that got him elected to the White House.

Putin and his Kremlin 'siloviki' are no doubt sighing with relief now that Trump has stymied the sanctions bill against them that was overwhelmingly supported by BOTH the US Senate and the House of Congress .

I am speculating that both Putin and Trump now have their sights on removing the sanctions that were implemented following Putin's illegal annexation of Ukrainian Crimea, and his ongoing war with Ukraine in the Donbas, notwithstanding the fact that in his recent meeting with that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, Rex Tillerson, US Secretary of State,

"On Ukraine, the Secretary [of State, Rex Tillerson] noted the upcoming meeting between U.S. Special Representative Volker and Russian Representative Surkov and emphasized the need for Russia to accelerate implementation of its commitments under the Minsk Agreements and reverse the recent escalation in the fighting in eastern Ukraine," Nauert said in a statement.(RFERL : 24 Jan., 2018) (my emphasis)

And whilst Tillerson is emphasizing the need for an acceleration of the implementation of Putin's Minsk2 protocols, Kurt Volker, Tillerson's US representative in Ukraine, stated that,

"During a press briefing set up via telephone from New York, Volker (right) said that the number of peacekeepers that may be deployed in Donbas had not been discussed during the latest talks, according to an UNIAN correspondent. 
...
“We didn’t talk about that [the number of peacekeepers],” he said, adding that the sides are still trying to figure out and agree on the mission’s mandate, and he is yet to “hear back” from the Russians on the issue. (UNIAN : 29 Jan., 2018) (my emphasis)

To which the Ukrainian Foreign Minister, Pavlo Klimkin (left), yesterday responded that,

"Unfortunately, during the meeting [between Volker and Russia’s Vladislav Surkov] no result was achieved, but we will consistently press for the implementation of the [Minsk agreements implementation] road map logic, and I hope that the latest developments, including on the American side, will also, let's say, ‘help’ [Russia] understand that their [Russian] proposals regarding bodyguards for SMM make no sense. Instead, a real peacekeeping mission is needed," Klimkin said. (UNIAN : 30 Jan., 2018) (my emphasis)

 These two developments viz.

• Trump refusing to implement the new sanctions against Putin and his Kremlin 'siloviki' clique, and
• Volker NOT discussing the peacekeeper issue with Putin acolyte Surkov

 are ominous signs for Ukraine.

(to be continued)

The so-called 'civilian' Kerch bridge may yet prove to be Putin's denouement.

Every president always has an eye on their historical legacy. With Putin, one can safely say that he has both his eyes on his historical legacy.

And the central feature upon which he has staked his historical legacy is the Kerch Strait bridge that finally cements, in his mind, that Ukrainian Crimea is a part of Russia.

Like Donald Trump, who has promised the US people to build a "beautiful" wall between the US and Mexico, Putin has promised the Russian people a land bridge between Ukrainian Crimea and Russia.

To succeed in building this land bridge between Ukrainian Crimea and Russia, it is absolutely necessary for Putin to keep his war with Ukraine bubbling over.

As reported by the OSCE monitoring commission to Ukraine,

"In continuation of the sequence of ceasefire violations recorded in the early evening of 22 January (see SMM Daily Report 23 January 2018), on the evening and night of 22-23 January the SMM camera at the Donetsk Filtration Station (15km north of Donetsk) recorded 33 undetermined explosions, 158 projectiles in flight (98 from west to east, 59 from east to west, and one from north-west to south-east) and 11 tracer rounds in flight (all from west to east), all 0.5-1km south.

The following evening, the same camera recorded two projectiles in flight from east to west followed by three projectiles in flight from west to east, all 0.5-1km south.

In Luhansk region, the SMM recorded one ceasefire violation (an explosion); it had recorded about 230 explosions in the previous reporting period.) (OSCE : 24 January, 2018)

It is therefore no co-incidence that Kurt Volker, the US envoy to Ukraine, has recently stated that,

"I think the Minsk agreements contain all the elements necessary for this to be resolved. What is lacking is not the content, what's lacking is political will [on the part of Putin].." (RFERL : 24 January, 2018) (my emphasis)

 

RFERL further reports that,

"The U.S. special envoy for Ukraine said the country's new law on reintegrating its conflict-torn regions has "regularized" the country's military operation against Russia-backed separatists, but doesn't change anything on the ground." (ibid RFERL, 24 Jan., 2018)

To-morrow, Kurt Volker will be meeting with his Russian counterpart, Vladislav Surkov, (left: Surkov and Volker) where he is,

"... planning to reiterate the U.S. position on the Ukraine conflict: that Moscow withdraw its forces and its "proxy entities," allow for a UN peacekeeping force, help create security on the ground, and then help fulfill the Minsk accords." (ibid RFERL, 24 Jan., 2018)

At the same time as Kurt Volker is planning to meet with Surkov, Rex Tillerson, US Secretary of State, has had a phone conversation with his old Russian buddy, that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, and emphasized that,

"On Ukraine, the Secretary [Tillerson] noted the upcoming meeting between U.S. Special Representative Volker and Russian Representative Surkov and emphasized the need for Russia to accelerate implementation of its commitments under the Minsk Agreements and reverse the recent escalation in the fighting in eastern Ukraine," Nauert said in a statement." (RFERL : 24 January, 2018) (my emphasis)

And whilst Volker and Tillerson are, ostensibly, continuing to use diplomatic channels to try and resolve Putin's war with Ukraine peacefully, Putin's Russian TV propaganda tool is cheering the fact that the first stage of the Kerch bridge is nearing completion.

But whilst Putin may be flushed with the near success over the realization of his legacy, a bridge that will forever be known as "Putin's Bridge", Putin's generals are slightly disconcerted by its vulnerability to missile attack.

Russia News Today reports that,

"Earlier, the Deputy chief of the General staff of the Armed forces of Ukraine Igor Romanenko (left) said that the Crimean bridge is vulnerable to aircraft and missiles, ground and sea-based." (Russia News Today : 30.12.2017) (my emphasis)

Recognizing this vulnerability,

"The first Deputy Chairman of the [Russian] Federation Council Committee on defense and security Frants Klintsevich (right), in turn, reminded that the bridge is primarily a civilian target, not military. The Senator, however, warned that in the event of a threat to «ceremony» no one will....
...
«We have enough forces and means, which already ensures a security of the object. In the event of any threat will be followed by an adequate response,» he said." (ibid Russia News Today) (my emphasis)
  
Frants Klintsevich, by trying to define Putin's Kerch bridge as a purely "civilian" bridge, rather beggars belief.

But, as I stated in my previous blog entry,

"Putin, however, now has to tread rather carefully. 

Those "little Green Men" of his that invaded, and then occupied, Ukrainian Crimea without a drop of blood being shed will now have to face an adversary that not only is battle hardened but, more importantly, now has the military capability to push back forcefully against any ground forces that Putin may care to throw at them." (blog entry :19 January, 2018)

The so-called 'civilian' Kerch bridge may yet, however, prove to be Putin's denouement.

Let us not forget that,

"Ukraine’s parliament on Thursday passed a bill that aims to reintegrate the eastern territories currently controlled by Russia-backed separatists, and goes as far as to declare support for taking them back by military force if necessary.

The bill describes the areas in Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk regions as “temporarily occupied” by “aggressor country” Russia. President Petro Poroshenko welcomed the new bill, saying it would help restore control of the east by “political and diplomatic means.” (Washington Post (AP): 18 Jan., 2018) (my emphasis)

(to be continued)

Putin now has to tread very very carefully.

In my blog entry of 3rd January 2018 I wrote that,

"Can it therefore be a co-incidence that just yesterday (2nd Jan., 2018),

"Ukrainian positions outside the village of Hnutove in the Mariupol sector came under fire from 82mm mortars, cannons of infantry fighting vehicles, grenade launchers, machine guns, and small arms. 

In addition, the enemy resorted to the entire range of infantry weapons to attack the defensive fortifications of the ATO forces around the village of Vodiane several times. In total, there were six attacks on the Ukrainian army in the past day." (UNIAN : 03 January 2018) (my emphasis)

Like Trump, who had no other option but to supply Ukraine with those deadly Javelin anti-tank missiles, and who now sees the noose of impeachment descending around his neck, Putin and his generals are now staring into the abyss of being militarily repulsed from gaining their much coveted landbridge into annexed Ukrainian Crimea."

And yesterday, the Washington Post (AP) reports that,

"Ukraine’s parliament on Thursday passed a bill that aims to reintegrate the eastern territories currently controlled by Russia-backed separatists, and goes as far as to declare support for taking them back by military force if necessary.

The bill describes the areas in Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk regions as “temporarily occupied” by “aggressor country” Russia. President Petro Poroshenko welcomed the new bill, saying it would help restore control of the east by “political and diplomatic means.” (Washington POst (AP) : 18 Jan., 2018) (my emphasis)

 

The response of Putin to the passing of this Ukrainian Bill, as reported by The Independent, was to claim that,

"The Russian foreign ministry sees Ukraine's efforts to denounce Moscow as an "aggressor country" as evidence that it is preparing for a "new war", according to Russian media." (The Independent: Thursday 18 January 2018) (my emphasis)

Similarly, as reported by RFERL,

"The Russian Foreign Ministry later said in a statement, "You cannot call this anything but preparation for a new war," and warned that the bill "risked a dangerous escalation in Ukraine with unpredictable consequences for world peace and security." (RFERL : 18 January, 2018) (my emphasis)
 
What is significant about the passing of this bill is that,

"Arseniy Yatseniuk, whose party forms the backbone of Ukraine’s ruling coalition with Mr Poroshenko’s political bloc, said the legislation also sets a legal framework to “remove the Russian army from Ukrainian territory” through a peacekeeping force sanctioned by the UN." (Roman Olearchyk : Financial Times : 18 January, 2018) (my emphasis)

This bill puts the final nail in the coffin of Putin's Minsk2 proposals.

Putin now wants a "new war" with Ukraine, and is using an invented story about the killing of two Russian soldiers in the Ukrainian Crimea that he annexed in 2014, as a pretext to prevent the very UN peacekeeping force that he, himself, originally suggested, from entering the Donbas. (cf. also Al Jazeera video)

Putin, however, now has to tread rather carefully. 

Those "little Green Men" of his that invaded, and then occupied, Ukrainian Crimea without a drop of blood being shed will now have to face an advesary that not only is battle hardened but, more importantly, now has the military capability to push back forcefully against any ground forces that Putin may care to throw at them.

Putin now has to factor publicly exposed Russian casualties into any military adventure he may venture to take against the battle-hardened Ukrainian forces.

As Prime Minister in October 1999, Putin set in motion the second Chechen war that, in the words of Anna Politkovskaya (left) "... brutalised both Chechen fighters and conscript soldiers in the federal army, and created hell for the civilians caught between them..." (Wikipedia).   

And in the wake of his brutality in Chechnya, Putin became President of Russia.

But will the Russian people continue to shower Putin with plaudits as the body bags of Russian soldiers from a Ukrainian war front begin to mount?

(to be continued)

2018 has just begun, and already Putin's woes are hanging heavily on his mind

Just as the winter holidays have ended, UNIAN reports that,

"Permanent Representative of Bulgaria, the country now presiding over the European Union, Ambassador Dimiter Tzantchev (left), said that Sofia will adhere to the principles adopted by the EU Council on sanctions against Russia, and so far there are no conditions for their lifting, an UNIAN correspondent reported.
......
[Dmiter] Tzantchev said. "We’ll stick to the five principles of relations with Russia approved by the Council in March 2016. Full implementation of the Minsk agreements by all sides in the conflict in eastern Ukraine is an important condition for the change in EU relations with Russia. At present, this condition has not been fulfilled," he said. The ambassador stressed that the EU "insists that Russia fully respect international law." (UNIAN : 8 January, 2018) (my emphasis)

This blow to Putin has been further compounded by the fact that,

"Beginning in February, the U.S. Treasury Department will submit the details on possible expanded sanctions, though their general targets — sovereign debt and oligarchs — are already known.
...
In its February report, the Treasury Department will detail the effects on Russia and the global market of possible sanctions on U.S. citizens who buy new Russian domestic government debt. 
...
If the United States implements sanctions on Russian sovereign debt, Western investors (beyond American) could be spooked away from buying it." (Stratfor : Dec. 18, 2017)

Now recall that,

"In July, the U.S. Congress wrested the power to directly withdraw the Russian sanctions away from the presidency, and [US] lawmakers now require that changes to the sanctions regime go through them first. President Donald Trump signed the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act in August, and it included provisions for expanding penalties in the coming years." (ibid Stratfor)

Trump, therefore, cannot lift the millstone of sanctions around Putin's neck. Nor can he stymie the US Congress from adding more sanctions against Putin and his Kremlin 'siloviki'.

Futher exacerbating Putin's woes as we enter 2018 is the fact that Canada may sign on to a "European Plan for Ukraine".

As Steven Chase reports, 

"Lithuania is urging Canada to sign on to a long-term package of support for Ukraine that would funnel more investment into the Eastern European country and strengthen its ties with the West as Kiev struggles to fight internal corruption and rebuild its economy despite a war with Moscow-backed militants. 

...

The Lithuanian government in concert with Ukraine is championing what is provisionally called a "European Plan for Ukraine" and would disburse an estimated $7.47-billion annually to Ukrainian recipients for a period of 10 years.

.....

More than 1.3 million Canadians, including Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland (left), can trace their heritage to Ukraine, where Canada is currently training Ukrainian soldiers to fight the Moscow-backed rebels." (The Globe and Mail : 8 January, 2018) (my emphasis)

This "European Plan for Ukraine" may gain more momentum now that Angela Merkel is on the verge of creating a stable coalition with Germany's Social Democrats.

As reported by Leigh Boobyer,

"The embattled German leader of the CDU met with SPD leader Martin Shulz today to set out the structure of exploratory talks in an initial meeting, alongside CSU leader Horst Seehofer.
...
The talks resulting in an initial programme of government will begin on Sunday 7, and should be completed by January 11.
...

All sides talked of growing confidence today, which will be seen as good news for Ms Merkel, whose reputation as Europe’s consensus-builder is one line in this second bid to form a coalition after weeks of sniping between its would-be partners. (Express : Wed, Jan 3, 2018) (my emphasis)

Putin's woes, however, do not end with the threat of more sanctions hanging over his head, nor by the fact that Angela Merkel may succeed in creating a stable coalition government which may then also lend its support for "A European plan for Ukraine". 

Putin now has also to contend with the fact that his most wealthy and supportive Ukrainian oligarch during the Yanukovich era is having big chunks of his assets frozen.

We now learn that,

"Rinat Akhmetov, (left :Yanukovich and Akhmetov) Ukraine’s richest man, has been served with an order from a Cyprus court freezing $820m of his assets in a long-running legal dispute with a rival over the country’s biggest fixed-line telecoms group." (Roman Olearchyk : Financial Times : January 6, 2018)

Roman Olearchyk further reports that,

"The Cyprus ruling means that three out of Ukraine’s five richest oligarchs now have asset freezes of varying sizes in place against them. In an unrelated case last month, the High Court in London granted an order to freeze more than $2.5bn of assets belonging to Igor Kolomoisky and Gennady Bogolyubov, linked to the near-collapse of PrivatBank, Ukraine’s biggest commercial lender which they then owned, in 2016." (ibid Roman Olearchyk) (my emphasis)

Then we have another Putin supportive Ukrainian oligarch, Dmitry Firtash, exiled and stuck in Austria, awaiting possible extradition to the US on corruption charges.

And as Kim Janssen reported in February of last year,

"The oligarch’s [Dmitry Firtash] business dealings with [Paul] Manafort are detailed in court filings in a separate, civil case in New York and add an intriguing wrinkle to a case that already had the potential for wide-ranging repercussions. Manafort’s ties to Russia are under federal investigation, according to The New York Times." (Chicago Tribune : February 21, 2017) (my emphasis)

This is the same Paul Manafort who, as reported by Andrew Prokop,

"... .. ran Donald Trump’s presidential campaign for several months in 2016, [and who] was indicted [..]  as part of special counsel Robert Mueller’s Russia investigation. Manafort’s former business partner Rick Gates, who also worked on the Trump campaign, was also indicted. You can read the full indictment here." (VOX : Oct 30, 2017) (my emphasis)

2018 has only begun, and already Putin's woes must be hanging heavily on his mind.

Neither can Putin depend on his woes being lifted by the fact that Republicans in both the Senate and the House of Congress are circling their wagons around Trump, hoping to successfully defend Trump against the continuing onslaught of evidence about his collusion with Putin during the 2016 US presidential elections.

 (cf: Joe Scarborough: MSNBC : 8 January,2018)

(to be continued)

Like a cornered rat, Putin and his generals are now lashing out.

Firstly, I would like to thank all my readers a Happy and Prosperous New Year.

The year 2017 has seen the dark and foreboding clouds of impeachment continuing to gather over the head of Donald Trump, as the collusion between Trump and Putin during the 2016 US presidential elections continues to emerge into the light of day.

As recently as November 9th, 2017, Putin was stating that,

"I have big suspicions that in response to our alleged interference in their elections, they want to create problems during the election of the president of Russia. " (Noah Friedman and Lamar Salter : Business Insider : Dec. 5, 2017) (my emphasis)

Indeed, as recently as Dec. 27, 2017, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova (left) stated that,

" ..... criticism over opposition leader Alexei Navalny's blocked presidential bid, saying it amounted to "meddling in the Russian elections."

"This statement by the U.S. Department of State, which I'm sure will not be the only one, is a direct interference into the electoral process and the state's domestic affairs," Zakharova said in comments carried by state-owned TASS news agency." (USA Today : Dec. 27, 2017) ( my emphasis)

The feebleness of Putin's continuous 'mantra' that he did NOT collude with Trump during the 2016 US presidential elections, primarily to get those US sanctions against himself and his 'siloviki' off his back, and that was brought about by his invasion and annexation of Ukrainian Crimea in 2014, as well as his continuing war with Ukraine in the Donbas, continues to prey on his mind.

And whilst Putin continues to mouth his 'mantra' that him and his Kremlin 'siloviki' did not get Trump into the White House, Glenn R. Simpson and Peter Fritsch report that,

"The [US Senate and Congressional] intelligence committees  have known for months that credible allegations of collusion between the Trump camp and Russia were pouring in from independent sources [e.g Australia] during the campaign" (New York Times : Jan. 2, 2018) (my emphasis)

Let us recall that in my last blog entry (27/12/2017) I stated that,

"Putin's military build-up of tanks in the Donbas is a prelude to attack Mariupol, specifically to gain that land-bridge with Ukrainian Crimea that he so desperately needs to further consolidate his hold over Ukrainian Crimea."

Can it therefore be a co-incidence that just yesterday (2nd Jan., 2018),

"Ukrainian positions outside the village of Hnutove in the Mariupol sector came under fire from 82mm mortars, cannons of infantry fighting vehicles, grenade launchers, machine guns, and small arms. 

In addition, the enemy resorted to the entire range of infantry weapons to attack the defensive fortifications of the ATO forces around the village of Vodiane several times. In total, there were six attacks on the Ukrainian army in the past day." (UNIAN : 03 January 2018) (my emphasis)

Like Trump, who had no other option but to supply Ukraine with those deadly Javelin anti-tank missiles, and who now sees the noose of impeachment descending around his neck, Putin and his generals are now staring into the abyss of being militarily repulsed from gaining their much coveted landbridge into annexed Ukrainian Crimea.

And like a cornered rat, Putin and his generals are now lashing out.

(to be continued)

Are Putin and Trump combining their attacks on the FBI to stop the Mueller investigation?

Ivan Nechepurenko reports that,

"Twelve members of the 13-member Central Election Commission voted on Monday to bar Navalny (left) from registering as a presidential candidate, citing his suspended prison sentence in a fraud case, a prosecution he has denounced as politically motivated." (The Star : 26 December, 2017) (my emphasis)

At the same time,

"In a move that seems designed to ensure the master of the Kremlin remains in place until 2024, the [United Russia]  party has decided to back a Putin re-election campaign, but only if he stands as an independent candidate, a candidate for all Russians the reasoning goes, in March 2018." (Euronews : 26 December, 2017) (my emphasis)

Similarly,

"Hundreds of Russian celebrities, sportspeople and politicians nominated President Vladimir Putin for re-election on Tuesday, hours after the Kremlin said it wanted opposition leader Alexei Navalny investigated for calling for a boycott of the vote." (Andrew Osborn & Polina Nikolskaya: Reuters : 26 December, 2017) (my emphasis)

Let us now recall that,

"In 1992, Putin was investigated [by St. Petersburg Councillor Marine Salye] for a deal he oversaw while an official in the mayor’s office. The deal involved the export of $100m worth of raw materials in exchange for food for the citizens of St Petersburg. The materials were exported, but the food never arrived." ( Maeve McClenaghan :Bureau of Investigative Journalism : April 19 2012) (my emphasis)

When Putin was first elected to the Russian presidency in 2000, the case against him was immediately dropped by the Russian Prosecutor General who argued that criminal cases against a Russian president cannot be pursued.

Compare this to the fact that this trumped-up criminal case against Navalny, which twelve members of the 13-member Central Election Commission used to bar him from registering as a presidential candidate,

" ... [has] been overruled by the European Court of Human Rights and that the Council of Europe had urged Russia to allow him to run for the presidency." (ibid Ivan Nechepurenko) (my emphasis)

Oh! how US President Donald Trump wishes he had the power of Putin simply to disappear the Mueller investigation into the collusion between himself and his lieuetenants, and Putin and his Kremlin 'siloviki', during the 2016 US Presidential elections, which ultimately got him elected into the White House.

What Trump has also singularly failed to do is to alter the Republican Foreign Policy on Ukraine that he has inherited.

 As reported on MSNBC (26 December, 2017), retired 4 star US Navy Admiral, James Stavridis stated that,

" ... the new National Security Strategy, which was just issued last week, is shockingly normal .... When you look back on what the Trump candidacy was talking about ... backing  out of NATO ... nuclear weapons to Japan  and South Korea ... a close personal relationship with Russia ... None of those things have happened ...." (my emphasis)  

 
More specifically, the Javelin anti-tank missiles now heading for Ukraine will neutralise Putin's attempt to try to build a land-bridge between Russia and annexed Ukrainian Crimea. 

This is why Putin is apoplectic with rage now that Trump has failed to prevent the Republicans from supplying Ukraine with the lethal weapons that it needs to defend itself against Putin's continuous buildup of military hardware in the Donbas. 

Putin's military build-up of tanks in the Donbas is a prelude to attack Mariupol, specifically to gain that land-bridge with Ukrainian Crimea that he so desperately needs to further consolidate his hold over Ukrainian Crimea.

The Javelin anti-tank missiles now heading for Ukraine has spiked this strategy of Putin's generals. 

Having failed to help his friend Putin by preventing the US Senate and Congress from sending lethal weaponry to Ukraine, Trump and his friends in the US Congress are now focussed on discrediting the FBI and, by implication, the Mueller investigation into his collusion with Putin during the 2016 US presidential elections.

The attacks on the FBI by Trump and US Republican Congressmen are now ramping up and, significantly, are echoing the attacks of Putin on the FBI.

 
Are Putin and Trump combining their attacks on the FBI to stop the Mueller investigation, just as the Russian General prosecutor stopped the investigations into Putin's criminality in St. Petersburg in 1992 when he was elected president in 2000? 
 

(to be continued)