Both Putin and Trump are now like 'cats on a hot tin roof'

The late Harold Wilson once remarked that, "A week is a long time in politics". For both Putin and Trump this may, indeed, have seemed like a " ... long week in politics".

As reported by Kenneth Rapoza,

"Ukraine finally gets a win against Russia.

State-owned gas company, Naftogaz, was awarded $2.5 billion in a lengthy, ugly legal battle with Russian gas behemoth Gazprom. The Stockholm Arbitral Tribunal ruled Wednesday on a years old dispute regarding natural gas transit fees in favor of the Ukrainians.  Gazprom said they will appeal the ruling." (Forbes : March 1, 2018) (my emphasis)

Spitting nails at this result, Putin immediately refused to deliver more gas to Ukraine.

As reported by the BBC,

"Ukraine has told all schools and higher education institutions to close in an effort to save gas, after its Russian supplier refused to deliver more fuel.

 ...
Gazprom made the announcement after a Stockholm court ruled against it at the end of a long-running legal battle. (BBC : 2 March, 2018)

Adding to Putin's anger Tyler Rogoway (left) reports that,

"...the U.S. State Department cleared Ukraine to purchase FGM-148 Javelin advanced anti-tank missiles.  

According to Defense News the $47M deal includes 210 Javelin missiles, 37 command launch units (CLU) and two spares, as well as training, logistics and support. This would be the first time the United States has agreed to provide advanced lethal weaponry to Ukraine since the conflict began [in 2014]. (The Drive : March 1, 2018) (my emphasis)

 

But there is more to come.

It now transpires that Putin's 'Kerch Bridge' is beginning to sink!

As reported by Paradox,

"Just a week ago in the article “Kerch bridge is another step towards the collapse made” I wrote why glad to establish railway spans on the Kerch bridge. And the main reason is called the total weight of railway construction in 17 400 tons, which will put additional pressure on the supports that will entail is them sagging and subsequent problems.

And here, it hasn’t even been six months, and, again, only a week and the first signal of problems on the mountain-the bridge has already begun." (The Mice Times of Asia : 15.02.2018) (my emphasis)

(Full Igor Korsakov video)

As early as January of this year Halya Coynash (left) reported that,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin has called construction of a bridge between Russia and occupied Crimea a “historic mission.” He should pay better attention to history. This mission is doomed to failure, and not only because of sanctions. Experts warn that even if the bridge now under construction can be finished, its chances of standing for any length of time are small.

... in December 2016, Yury Medovar from Russia’s Academy of Sciences said that the [Kerch] bridge is being built without a proper design, since nobody wants to take responsibility for it. The bridge cannot be built, he said, and God help us if it is, since it can’t last." (The Atlantic Council : January 10, 2018) (my emphasis)

Trying to avert the eyes of the Russian public from the sinking of the Kerch Bridge, even before it is fully completed, Putin tried to flex his 'nuclear muscles' before the West.

All, however, to no avail.

Putin's bluster about his new nuclear arsenal in his Presidential pre-election speech before the Russian public was pure Russian 'maskirovka'.

As Rob Dannenberg (left) explains,

" 'Maskirovka' is a key element in the current Russian doctrine of hybrid warfare as articulated in the so-called Gerasimov Doctrine. This doctrine calls for the integration of information operations, cyber proxies, overt economic influence, and clandestine influence agents to support the military objective" (The Cipher : November 8, 2017) (my emphasis)

Unlike Putin's 'maskirovka' bluster, as reported by UNIAN,

"...compared to early 2014, Ukraine’s armed forces have improved considerably. First of all, the Ukrainian Army is now a 250,000-strong force against a modest 157,000 troops back in 2014.
.....
At the same time, at the beginning of Russian aggression, only some 6,000 military—right about a size of a single brigade—were in fully combat-ready and resolute to execute the political leadership’s orders. While no drills were held at brigade or regimental levels in 2013, the White Book of Ukraine’s ministry of defense logged 20 brigade-level exercises in 2016, while ground forces conducted 26 exercises at the brigade level in 2017." (UNIAN : 28 February, 2018) (my emphasis)

Added to which, they now have Javelin anti-tank missile systems at their disposal.

If Putin was  having a 'bad political week', so too was Trump.

Trump's White House is now unravelling at a fast pace.

 And, like Putin, Trump is trying to avert the eyes of the American public from the near 'meltdown' of his White House administration towards his call for a 'Trade War', a call that is causing serious consternation amongst countries worldwide.

Both Putin and Trump are now like 'cats on a hot tin roof'

(to be continued)

The net is closing around Putin and Trump.

In 2014 Toni Frisch (left), Swiss Ambassador 

and the Chair of the Military and Civil Defense Assets Consultative Group of the International Search and Rescue Advisory Group (INSARAG), gave a presentation to the OSCE. 

The OSCE has published no information about this presentation except to state that,

"The views, opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this document [ Toni Frisch's presentation] are not given nor necessarily endorsed by the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) unless the OSCE is explicitly defined as the Author of this document." (OSCE : 20 May, 2014)

Fast forward to yesterday [14 February 2018] and Toni Frisch is now the OSCE special representative to the Trilateral Contact Group in Minsk.

First Deputy Speaker of [Ukrainian] Parliament, Iryna Gerashchenko (left) now informs us that,

" ....  the Ukrainian representatives in Minsk today were confused with "the strange fact that the OSCE coordinator Toni Frisch, as it turned out, had met with Vladislav Surkov's adviser in Moscow and did not inform the group and the TCG about the meeting or its outcome." (UNIAN : 14 February, 2018) (my emphasis)

This secretive meeting between Frisch and Surkov (left) preceded, as reported by UNIAN, that,

"The working groups of the trilateral contact group on Ukraine have gathered in Minsk for talks, according to the Belarusian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The talks will be followed by a meeting of the trilateral contact group, BelTA reported." (UNIAN : 14 February, 2018) (my emphasis)

This recent secretive meeting between Frisch and Surkov also comes amidst the fact that, as reported by Henry Ridgwell,

"A U.N. peacekeeping force in eastern Ukraine could pave the way for local elections within a year, according to a new report that aims to build on international momentum behind establishing such a mission.

...

The new report, commissioned by former NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen (right), now an adviser to Ukraine's president, calls for a peacekeeping force of 20,000 soldiers from non-NATO countries, led by Sweden." (VOA : 14 February, 2018) (my emphasis)

The fact that Rasmussen excludes NATO countries from participating in this peacekeeping force will rather wrong-foot Putin.

Which excuse, now, will Putin be able to muster to reject Rasmussen's proposal given that he, himself, first suggested in September, 2017, that,

"Russia will ask the U.N. Security Council to send peacekeepers to patrol the front line in eastern Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin said Tuesday, a development greeted by Germany as a new opportunity for detente." (Nataliya Vasilyeva : US News (AP) : Sept. 5, 2017) (my emphasis)

And as Rasmussen is proposing a UN peacekeeping force of 20,000 in the Donbas,  UNIAN reports that,

"Today another 2500 Night Vision Devices were transferred to our partners in the Ukrainian Armed Forces," the U.S. Embassy in Ukraine wrote on Facebook.

...

It was also reported that the draft federal budget of the United States of America for 2019 provides for the allocation of $200 million for strengthening Ukraine's security and defense." (UNIAN : 14 February, 2018) (my emphasis)

The exposure of the Frisch-Surkov secret meeting, together with the Rasmussen proposal of a 20,000 non-NATO peace-keeping force in the Donbas, and more US military equipment both arriving in, and promised to, Ukraine, rather puts into perspective the weak threats of Putin, as mouthed by his dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov.

[More ominously, however, is the fact that Lavrov also recently stated that,

" .....Russia would "draw conclusions" in connection with the U.S. weapons supplies to Ukraine.

“It is also an objective fact that representatives of Donetsk and Luhansk are looking closely at this, being able to stand up for themselves. I believe this must also be kept in mind," Lavrov said. (UNIAN : 11 February,2018) (my emphasis) (blog entry 12 February)] 

Adding to Putin's woes is the fact that the American public is now becoming more aware of the direct link between Putin's fervent wish to have US sanctions against himself and his 'siloviki' scrapped, and his collusion with Trump during the 2016 US presidential elections, that led to Trump now sitting in the White House.

And more disconcerting for both Trump and Putin is the fact that the more 'salacious' details in the Christopher Steele dossier have indirect corroborating evidence from Trump's cavorting with a US 'lady of the night', "Stormy Daniels" (right), and the 'hush money' paid to her to keep quiet a month before the 2016 US presidential elections. 

Is the public exposure by Putin of those 'salacious' video-details of Trump in the Christopher Steele dossier his 'black-mailing' card against Trump?

The net is closing around Putin and Trump.

(to be continued)

"Is Putin now beginning to run scared?"

To understand Putin's growing anxieties about the sanctions against himself and his Kremlin 'siloviki', one need look no further than the rather dire straits of the Russian economy.

 As reported by Paul Goble, (left)

• According to a new study by the IMF, 33.7 percent of the Russian economy is outside of the legal sphere ... 
• A new investigation by the Russian Academy of Economics and State Service finds that more than 90 percent of Russian industry now depends in whole or in part on imports, a major reason for concern at a time of sanctions (my emphasis)
• In many countries, consumer spending drives economic growth, but in Russia today, the share of the population which is poor is so high that this is not the case (my emphasis).
  
•  A Russian business group says that its analysis shows that conditions for the operation of businesses are far worse in the Russian Federation than they are in Kazakhstan or Belarus 

TASS now also reports that,

"The outcome of the latest meeting between Russian president’s aide Vladislav Surkov and US Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations Kurt Volker is not hopeless, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov (right) said in an interview ...  on Sunday." 
...
"Not long ago, they had another meeting. I would say that the outcome is not hopeless," the Russian top diplomat noted. "They agreed to continue such talks." (TASS : 11 February, 2018) (my emphasis)

More ominously, however, is the fact that Lavrov also recently stated that,

" .....Russia would "draw conclusions" in connection with the U.S. weapons supplies to Ukraine.

“It is also an objective fact that representatives of Donetsk and Luhansk are looking closely at this, being able to stand up for themselves. I believe this must also be kept in mind," Lavrov said. (UNIAN : 11 February,2018) (my emphasis)

Lavrov continued,

"I believe that the one who will take the first step toward scrapping the Minsk agreements will make a colossal mistake. 
...
In fact, the Kyiv authorities are only one step away from this mistake, that’s if they finally pass the law on reintegration, which they now passed in the second reading. We'll see," said Lavrov." (ibid UNIAN) (my emphasis)

Responding to these 'veiled threats' of Lavrov, a spokesperson for the Foreign Ministry of Ukraine, Mariana Betsa (left), wrote on Twitter.

"Scrapping the Minsk agreements is non-fulfillment by Russia, by their side, of their obligations, and the ongoing aggression," (UNIAN : 11 February, 2018) (my emphasis)
 
The 'Law on Reintegration' being referred to by Lavrov basically states that,

[Russia shall be held liable for moral, financial or physical damage inflicted on the State of Ukraine, government authorities and local self-government agencies, individuals and legal entities. 

According to the draft law, the launch and completion of measures to ensure national security and defense, repel and deter Russia's armed aggression in Donetsk and Luhansk regions shall be enacted by separate decisions by the President of Ukraine. (ibid UNIAN)]

And underlining Mariana Betsa's statement, Stephen Blank (right) argues that,

"Russia refuses to accept a negotiated outcome that entails its retreat from the Donbas or Crimea. Moscow now insists that Ukraine accede to the suicidal Minsk II agreement that would effectively convert Ukraine into a confederation whose sovereignty could be punctured at any point by the Donbas" (The Atlantic Council: January 24, 2018) (my emphasis) 

And whilst Putin's Russian economy is going South, and that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, is trying to put a positive gloss on the Volker-Surkov meetings about Ukraine, whilst also issuing 'veiled threats' about sending more sophisticated arms to Putin's Russian soldiers and proxies in the Ukrainian Donbas, TASS also reports that,

"Russia’s National Guard [created by Putin in 2016], also known as Rosgvardiya, said it would crack down on unauthorized rallies during the [2018] Russian presidential election, Head of the National Guard’s Main Directorate for Public Order Protection Alexey Zinin told reporters on Thursday." (TASS : January 18,2018)

As also recently reported by the BBC, 

"Russian President Vladimir Putin has called for elite soldiers in a new force - the National Guard - to protect the country's regional governors."
 ....
"The National Guard, launched last year [2016], is headed by Mr Putin's ex-bodyguard Viktor Zolotov, a longstanding ally. (left: Zolotov and Putin)
...
"Mr Putin has previously warned that Russia must protect itself from "colour revolutions" like those that toppled presidents in neighbouring Ukraine, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan." (BBC : November 2017) (my emphasis) 

Joe Ankier 6 April, 2016

Which rather raises the question,

"Why is Putin suddenly 'beefing up' his 'National Guard' with a force of elite soldiers, whilst at the same time threatening to counter the Javelin anti-tank missiles sent to Ukraine by the US by sending more sophisticated arms to his Russian soldiers and proxies in the Donbas?"

"Is Putin now beginning to run scared?"

(to be continued)

Putin now lives on 'hopes' ...

Angela Merkel has finally managed to create a coalition government with Martin Schulz, leader of the SPD party.

But in the process she has had to relinquish CDU control of the Finance and Foreign Affairs Ministries to the SDP.

As reported by Will Kirby,

"Martin Schulz, (left) the embattled leader of the Social Democrats (SPD), will take over as foreign minister in a move likely to infuriate the German voters who opted for more eurosceptic parties in last year’s election." (Express : Wed, Feb 7, 2018) (my emphasis)

 This is the same Martin Schulz who,

• Speaking in December [2017], Mr Schulz called on EU member states to sign up to a “United States of Europe” by 2025 or risk being kicked out of the bloc. (ibid Will Kirby) (my emphasis)

•  ... stated as recently as 5 months ago (September 2017), “The way I see the situation, Russians have turned it [Putin's illegal annexation of Ukrainian Crimea] into an accomplished fact and they will insist on it,” he said. Schulz added that Crimea’s reunification with Russia was a “serious violation of international law” although Russian president Putin has insisted that the referendum that was held to join Russia, had been strictly in accordance with international law." (Free West Media : September 2, 2017) (my emphasis)

• ... and in 2016, stated that, "Sanctions will be maintained and they will continue to be applied until Minsk agreements are completely fulfilled," - said Schulz in his doorstep statement before the start of the EU summit, adding that the Minsk deal must be implemented by all parties to the conflict." (UNIAN : 20 October 2016) (my emphasis)

But hardly had Schulz time to warm the seat as Germany's new Foreign Minister when he had to relinquish this dream of his following being attacked by his predecessor as [SDP] party leader, Sigmar Gabriel (right), who is also the outgoing foreign minister.

As reported by  Ivo Oliveira,

"But when the new coalition deal was announced on Wednesday, it swiftly became clear that Schulz intended to become foreign minister. On Friday, Schulz bowed to the backlash against his plan.

“I hereby forgo joining the federal government,” he said. “At the same time, I sincerely hope that this will end the personnel debates within the SPD.” (Politico : 9 February, 2018) (my emphasis)

 Let us not forget, however, that this same Sigmar Gabriel who denounced Martin Schulz, is also in full support of  Putin's controversial plan to build Nord Stream 2 between Russia and Germany, and which could lead to German companies coming under the threat of being sanctioned by the US.

As reported by Matthew Karnitschnig,

“Now is a good time for us to intensify our economic cooperation,” Gabriel said during a visit to St. Petersburg in late November [2017]. “We’ve always known Russia as an especially reliable gas supplier.” (Politico : 13/12/17) (my emphasis)


Putin cannot, however, rest assured that Trump will not impose sanctions against those German companies helping him to complete his Nord Stream 2 project since Trump is having a "bad hair day" with the Mueller investigation into the collusion between himself and Trump during the 2016 US presidential elections.

Just as Nixon tried to get rid of Archibald Cox, a special prosecutor appointed by the attorney general to investigate the Watergate burglary, and that ultimately led to Nixon resigning from the US presidency, Trump is now also attempting to set the scene for him being able to fire Robert Mueller from investigating the collusion between Putin and himself during the 2016 US presidential election.

Trump's desperation to protect his presidency, like Nixon before him, is however leading him closer to the scaffold of impeachment.

Putin can only hope that whoever becomes the next Foreign Minister of Germany will be sympathetic towards BOTH the completion of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline AND his 'fait accompli' annexation of Ukrainian Crimea.

He also hopes that Trump manages to rid himself of Mueller and the 'Russia Investigation' into his collusion with the Trump campaign during the 2016 US presidential elections without Trump, in the process, being impeached.

(to be continued)

Putin receiving his first paycheck from Trump

Donald Trump has given his State Of The Union (SOTU) address yesterday, following his announcement on Monday that,

"The Trump administration told Congress on Monday [29 Jan., 2018] that bipartisan legislation passed last year authorizing new sanctions on Russia is already "serving as a deterrent," and there's no need to actually implement the penalties at this time.“By limiting the executive’s flexibility, this bill makes it harder for the United States to strike good deals for the American people, and will drive China, Russia, and North Korea much closer together,” Trump said in a statement at the time. (Olivia Beavers : The Hill : 29 Jan., 2018) (cf. also : Rob Crilly : The Telegraph : 30 Jan., 2018)

Putin is finally publicly receiving his 'payback' from Trump for helping him win the US presidency.

Throughout yesterday's SOTU address Trump was deafeningly silent about  Putin's direct interference in the 2016 US presidential elections that got him elected to the White House.

Putin and his Kremlin 'siloviki' are no doubt sighing with relief now that Trump has stymied the sanctions bill against them that was overwhelmingly supported by BOTH the US Senate and the House of Congress .

I am speculating that both Putin and Trump now have their sights on removing the sanctions that were implemented following Putin's illegal annexation of Ukrainian Crimea, and his ongoing war with Ukraine in the Donbas, notwithstanding the fact that in his recent meeting with that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, Rex Tillerson, US Secretary of State,

"On Ukraine, the Secretary [of State, Rex Tillerson] noted the upcoming meeting between U.S. Special Representative Volker and Russian Representative Surkov and emphasized the need for Russia to accelerate implementation of its commitments under the Minsk Agreements and reverse the recent escalation in the fighting in eastern Ukraine," Nauert said in a statement.(RFERL : 24 Jan., 2018) (my emphasis)

And whilst Tillerson is emphasizing the need for an acceleration of the implementation of Putin's Minsk2 protocols, Kurt Volker, Tillerson's US representative in Ukraine, stated that,

"During a press briefing set up via telephone from New York, Volker (right) said that the number of peacekeepers that may be deployed in Donbas had not been discussed during the latest talks, according to an UNIAN correspondent. 
...
“We didn’t talk about that [the number of peacekeepers],” he said, adding that the sides are still trying to figure out and agree on the mission’s mandate, and he is yet to “hear back” from the Russians on the issue. (UNIAN : 29 Jan., 2018) (my emphasis)

To which the Ukrainian Foreign Minister, Pavlo Klimkin (left), yesterday responded that,

"Unfortunately, during the meeting [between Volker and Russia’s Vladislav Surkov] no result was achieved, but we will consistently press for the implementation of the [Minsk agreements implementation] road map logic, and I hope that the latest developments, including on the American side, will also, let's say, ‘help’ [Russia] understand that their [Russian] proposals regarding bodyguards for SMM make no sense. Instead, a real peacekeeping mission is needed," Klimkin said. (UNIAN : 30 Jan., 2018) (my emphasis)

 These two developments viz.

• Trump refusing to implement the new sanctions against Putin and his Kremlin 'siloviki' clique, and
• Volker NOT discussing the peacekeeper issue with Putin acolyte Surkov

 are ominous signs for Ukraine.

(to be continued)

The so-called 'civilian' Kerch bridge may yet prove to be Putin's denouement.

Every president always has an eye on their historical legacy. With Putin, one can safely say that he has both his eyes on his historical legacy.

And the central feature upon which he has staked his historical legacy is the Kerch Strait bridge that finally cements, in his mind, that Ukrainian Crimea is a part of Russia.

Like Donald Trump, who has promised the US people to build a "beautiful" wall between the US and Mexico, Putin has promised the Russian people a land bridge between Ukrainian Crimea and Russia.

To succeed in building this land bridge between Ukrainian Crimea and Russia, it is absolutely necessary for Putin to keep his war with Ukraine bubbling over.

As reported by the OSCE monitoring commission to Ukraine,

"In continuation of the sequence of ceasefire violations recorded in the early evening of 22 January (see SMM Daily Report 23 January 2018), on the evening and night of 22-23 January the SMM camera at the Donetsk Filtration Station (15km north of Donetsk) recorded 33 undetermined explosions, 158 projectiles in flight (98 from west to east, 59 from east to west, and one from north-west to south-east) and 11 tracer rounds in flight (all from west to east), all 0.5-1km south.

The following evening, the same camera recorded two projectiles in flight from east to west followed by three projectiles in flight from west to east, all 0.5-1km south.

In Luhansk region, the SMM recorded one ceasefire violation (an explosion); it had recorded about 230 explosions in the previous reporting period.) (OSCE : 24 January, 2018)

It is therefore no co-incidence that Kurt Volker, the US envoy to Ukraine, has recently stated that,

"I think the Minsk agreements contain all the elements necessary for this to be resolved. What is lacking is not the content, what's lacking is political will [on the part of Putin].." (RFERL : 24 January, 2018) (my emphasis)

 

RFERL further reports that,

"The U.S. special envoy for Ukraine said the country's new law on reintegrating its conflict-torn regions has "regularized" the country's military operation against Russia-backed separatists, but doesn't change anything on the ground." (ibid RFERL, 24 Jan., 2018)

To-morrow, Kurt Volker will be meeting with his Russian counterpart, Vladislav Surkov, (left: Surkov and Volker) where he is,

"... planning to reiterate the U.S. position on the Ukraine conflict: that Moscow withdraw its forces and its "proxy entities," allow for a UN peacekeeping force, help create security on the ground, and then help fulfill the Minsk accords." (ibid RFERL, 24 Jan., 2018)

At the same time as Kurt Volker is planning to meet with Surkov, Rex Tillerson, US Secretary of State, has had a phone conversation with his old Russian buddy, that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, and emphasized that,

"On Ukraine, the Secretary [Tillerson] noted the upcoming meeting between U.S. Special Representative Volker and Russian Representative Surkov and emphasized the need for Russia to accelerate implementation of its commitments under the Minsk Agreements and reverse the recent escalation in the fighting in eastern Ukraine," Nauert said in a statement." (RFERL : 24 January, 2018) (my emphasis)

And whilst Volker and Tillerson are, ostensibly, continuing to use diplomatic channels to try and resolve Putin's war with Ukraine peacefully, Putin's Russian TV propaganda tool is cheering the fact that the first stage of the Kerch bridge is nearing completion.

But whilst Putin may be flushed with the near success over the realization of his legacy, a bridge that will forever be known as "Putin's Bridge", Putin's generals are slightly disconcerted by its vulnerability to missile attack.

Russia News Today reports that,

"Earlier, the Deputy chief of the General staff of the Armed forces of Ukraine Igor Romanenko (left) said that the Crimean bridge is vulnerable to aircraft and missiles, ground and sea-based." (Russia News Today : 30.12.2017) (my emphasis)

Recognizing this vulnerability,

"The first Deputy Chairman of the [Russian] Federation Council Committee on defense and security Frants Klintsevich (right), in turn, reminded that the bridge is primarily a civilian target, not military. The Senator, however, warned that in the event of a threat to «ceremony» no one will....
...
«We have enough forces and means, which already ensures a security of the object. In the event of any threat will be followed by an adequate response,» he said." (ibid Russia News Today) (my emphasis)
  
Frants Klintsevich, by trying to define Putin's Kerch bridge as a purely "civilian" bridge, rather beggars belief.

But, as I stated in my previous blog entry,

"Putin, however, now has to tread rather carefully. 

Those "little Green Men" of his that invaded, and then occupied, Ukrainian Crimea without a drop of blood being shed will now have to face an adversary that not only is battle hardened but, more importantly, now has the military capability to push back forcefully against any ground forces that Putin may care to throw at them." (blog entry :19 January, 2018)

The so-called 'civilian' Kerch bridge may yet, however, prove to be Putin's denouement.

Let us not forget that,

"Ukraine’s parliament on Thursday passed a bill that aims to reintegrate the eastern territories currently controlled by Russia-backed separatists, and goes as far as to declare support for taking them back by military force if necessary.

The bill describes the areas in Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk regions as “temporarily occupied” by “aggressor country” Russia. President Petro Poroshenko welcomed the new bill, saying it would help restore control of the east by “political and diplomatic means.” (Washington Post (AP): 18 Jan., 2018) (my emphasis)

(to be continued)

Putin now has to tread very very carefully.

In my blog entry of 3rd January 2018 I wrote that,

"Can it therefore be a co-incidence that just yesterday (2nd Jan., 2018),

"Ukrainian positions outside the village of Hnutove in the Mariupol sector came under fire from 82mm mortars, cannons of infantry fighting vehicles, grenade launchers, machine guns, and small arms. 

In addition, the enemy resorted to the entire range of infantry weapons to attack the defensive fortifications of the ATO forces around the village of Vodiane several times. In total, there were six attacks on the Ukrainian army in the past day." (UNIAN : 03 January 2018) (my emphasis)

Like Trump, who had no other option but to supply Ukraine with those deadly Javelin anti-tank missiles, and who now sees the noose of impeachment descending around his neck, Putin and his generals are now staring into the abyss of being militarily repulsed from gaining their much coveted landbridge into annexed Ukrainian Crimea."

And yesterday, the Washington Post (AP) reports that,

"Ukraine’s parliament on Thursday passed a bill that aims to reintegrate the eastern territories currently controlled by Russia-backed separatists, and goes as far as to declare support for taking them back by military force if necessary.

The bill describes the areas in Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk regions as “temporarily occupied” by “aggressor country” Russia. President Petro Poroshenko welcomed the new bill, saying it would help restore control of the east by “political and diplomatic means.” (Washington POst (AP) : 18 Jan., 2018) (my emphasis)

 

The response of Putin to the passing of this Ukrainian Bill, as reported by The Independent, was to claim that,

"The Russian foreign ministry sees Ukraine's efforts to denounce Moscow as an "aggressor country" as evidence that it is preparing for a "new war", according to Russian media." (The Independent: Thursday 18 January 2018) (my emphasis)

Similarly, as reported by RFERL,

"The Russian Foreign Ministry later said in a statement, "You cannot call this anything but preparation for a new war," and warned that the bill "risked a dangerous escalation in Ukraine with unpredictable consequences for world peace and security." (RFERL : 18 January, 2018) (my emphasis)
 
What is significant about the passing of this bill is that,

"Arseniy Yatseniuk, whose party forms the backbone of Ukraine’s ruling coalition with Mr Poroshenko’s political bloc, said the legislation also sets a legal framework to “remove the Russian army from Ukrainian territory” through a peacekeeping force sanctioned by the UN." (Roman Olearchyk : Financial Times : 18 January, 2018) (my emphasis)

This bill puts the final nail in the coffin of Putin's Minsk2 proposals.

Putin now wants a "new war" with Ukraine, and is using an invented story about the killing of two Russian soldiers in the Ukrainian Crimea that he annexed in 2014, as a pretext to prevent the very UN peacekeeping force that he, himself, originally suggested, from entering the Donbas. (cf. also Al Jazeera video)

Putin, however, now has to tread rather carefully. 

Those "little Green Men" of his that invaded, and then occupied, Ukrainian Crimea without a drop of blood being shed will now have to face an advesary that not only is battle hardened but, more importantly, now has the military capability to push back forcefully against any ground forces that Putin may care to throw at them.

Putin now has to factor publicly exposed Russian casualties into any military adventure he may venture to take against the battle-hardened Ukrainian forces.

As Prime Minister in October 1999, Putin set in motion the second Chechen war that, in the words of Anna Politkovskaya (left) "... brutalised both Chechen fighters and conscript soldiers in the federal army, and created hell for the civilians caught between them..." (Wikipedia).   

And in the wake of his brutality in Chechnya, Putin became President of Russia.

But will the Russian people continue to shower Putin with plaudits as the body bags of Russian soldiers from a Ukrainian war front begin to mount?

(to be continued)