To regain his popularity in Russia, will Putin light the touchpaper of all-out war with Ukraine?

In the first two years of the 'Manchurian-Candidate' Trump presidency, Putin strutted the world stage as he flexed his 'nuclear' muscles and escalated his war with Ukraine, as evidenced by his Kerch strait attack on Ukrainian ships, the buildup of his nuclear weaponry in Ukraine's Crimea, and the further consolidation of his forces along Ukraine's border.

Now that the Democratic Party is within a few hours short of taking full control of the US House of Congress, and with it full oversight over Trump's actions, Putin realizes that his 'Manchurian' hold over Trump is now counter-balanced by the incoming Democratic oversight over his 'Manchurian' Trump.

So, as reported by Jamie Dettmer (left),

"Ukrainian officials are warning that Russia may be about to escalate its conflict with Ukraine, including possibly launching a breakout offensive from Crimea.
....
“Russia continues to build up and prepare its military forces for possible offensive operations against Ukraine from the Crimean peninsula and the East,” the institute has reported. It says Russia could conduct such operations on short notice." (VOA: ! January, 2019) (my emphasis)

UNIAN similarly reports that,

"The Russian-led occupation forces continue massing heavy weapons in the area near the Russian occupied city of Luhansk in Donbas, eastern Ukraine, and conduct live-fire exercises, preparing for active hostilities." (UNIAN : 30 Dec., 2018) (my emphasis) (cf also: OSCE report 29 Dec., 2018)

And whilst Putin is gearing up his naval and armed forces for an invasion of Ukraine, Paul Carrell (left) reports that,

"U.S. President Donald Trump’s criticism of the Russian-backed Nord Stream 2 pipeline is no reason to stop the project and any attempt to do so would be difficult now that it is being built, [Germany's] European Commissioner Guenther Oettinger said.
...
Germany refuses to join opposition to the project from many EU states and - thus far - from the EU executive, describing it as a private enterprise." (Reuters : 28 December, 2018) (my emphasis)


The Prime Minister of Ukraine, Volodymyr Groysman (left), is correct in stating that,

"... the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project a form of a disguised war against Europe and European consumers. “Nord Stream 2 is a form of disguised war against Europe. We know what it is to be dependent on Russia in energy. We know from our own experience how dangerous it is. Therefore, we are now considering the project as Russia's geopolitical weapon,” Groysman said, adding that Ukraine’s preservation of the status of a priority gas transit country is of great “significance in terms of security and politics" for all of Europe.” (UNIAN : 2nd January, 2019) (my emphasis)

One can now safely say that the Putinversteher Angela Merkel, together with the German business community is, and always has been, covering Putin's economic back, irrespective of Gazprom being a critical factor in Putin's war with Ukraine!

And whilst Putin continues to flex his Russian military and German political-economic muscles, ordinary Russia people are beginning to publicly express their growing dislike of his actions at home.

As reported by Echo msk., Putin's [2019] New Year address to the Russian people

 Дорогие россияне поставили президенту массу дизлайков в YouTube. На странице «России-1» новогоднее обращение получило около тысячи «лайков» и более 4 тысяч «дизлайков», то есть знаков одобрения и неодобрения соответственно.

У обращения на «Первом канале – 12 тысяч «лайков», а «дизлайков» — больше 66 тысяч. Это притом, что по декабрьским данным ВЦИОМа, деятельность президента одобряет почти 65% россиян, а количество «лайков» легко накрутить с помощью прокремлевских ботов.

" (Google Translate) ... have put a lot of dizlik on YouTube to the president. On the Russia-1 page, the New Year's appeal received about a thousand “likes” and more than 4 thousand “dislikes”, that is, signs of approval and disapproval, respectively.

The appeal on Channel One has 12 thousand likes, and the dislikes have more than 66 thousand. This is despite the fact that according to the December data of the VTsIOM, the president’s activities are approved by almost 65% of Russians, and the number of “likes” is easily crafted using pro-Kremlin bots." (Echo msk. : 1st January, 2019) (my emphasis) (cf also: Paul Goble: 1 January, 2019)

As the people of Russia continue to suffer the privations brought upon them by Putin placing his ego and the continued enrichment of his 'siloviki' clan above that of the daily deprivations that this has caused for the Russian people, what does 2019 have in store for the Russian people?

To regain his standing among the people of Russia, will he finally light the touchpaper of all-out war with Ukraine?

(to be continued)

Is Putin beginning to fall into the abyss of starting WW3?

Iryna Nazarchuk has reported that,

"British defense minister Gavin Williamson (left) visited Ukraine on Friday where he told his Ukrainian counterpart that the Black Sea did not belong to Russia and that Britain had sent a Royal Navy ship there to show Kiev did not stand alone." (Reuters : 21 Dec., 2018) (my emphasis)

Mail Online

At the same time, Jens Stoltenberg, NATO Secretary General, stated that,

"Last week, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told journalists in Brussels the North Atlantic alliance would be taking more of a “leadership” role in defending Ukraine. “We are also supporting Ukraine to improve its naval capabilities,” Stoltenberg said." (Anna Nemtsova : Daily Beast : 21 Dec., 2018) (my emphasis)

Earlier, during his four-hour press conference Thursday (20 Dec., 2018) Putin,

" .... showed no sign he’d be softening his position on the Kerch Strait or in the Sea of Azov to respect Ukrainian sovereignty. “We have a right and we will design our military policy the way we consider necessary,” he said. “If General Staff [of the Armed Forces], the border guard service, think we need to reinforce security on a certain territory, we are going to do it.” (ibid Anna Nemtsova) (my emphasis)

More disconcerting, however, at his marathon press conference last Thursday, Putin rather bluntly stated that,

" ... The danger of the situation escalating is being downplayed. It now seems to be impossible ... something not of crucial importance .. But at the same time if something like this would happen this might lead to the collapse of the entire civilization ... maybe our planet ..."

According to Russian opposition leader Dmitry Gudko (left),

“Putin’s popularity is now down to 45 percent, as low as it was before he annexed Crimea; so he needs a little victorious war again to boost his rating, or at least to keep it from fading away.” (ibid Anna Nemtsova) (my emphasis)

Would Putin start a nuclear war simply to boost his ratings?

As I wrote in my last blog entry (12/12/2018),

"Let us not forget the Moscow apartment bombings in 1999 that killed 293 innocent Russian civilians, and injured more than 1,000, and that pointed directly to Putin as the perpetrator of this massacre upon his own people. (cf. CBC : 8 January 2015, Wikipedia, David Satter ; National Review (17 Aug., 2017), Scott Anderson : GQ (March 30, 2017) )

These bombings catapulted Putin into his first term as president of Russia.

Let us now remind ourselves that,

"Moscow's persistence in claiming that Ukraine is plotting a chemical attack in the occupied Donbas raises serious concerns, says Ukrainian MP Dmytro Tymchuk, who is also a coordinator of the Information Resistance OSINT group.
...
On November 26, a statement was made by Russian ambassador to the OSCE, A. Lukashevich (left), that the Ukrainian Armed Forces "are preparing a provocation with the use of chemical weapons in Donbas."
...
[Furthermore], on December 5, at a briefing of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Zakharova (left) told the same thing, adding: “Such actions can lead to civilian casualties and contradict not only the Minsk Agreements, but also international agreements on the prohibition and restriction of weapons of mass destruction...” (UNIAN : 10 December, 2018) (my emphasis)

When viewed against Putin's recent statement about the "danger of the situation [at the Kerch Strait entrance into the Sea of Azov] escalating", we can discern a propaganda pattern that Putin is using as a prelude to legitimize a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine.

If, however, Putin thought that the current preoccupation of the US Senate and House of Congress with the increasing problems confronting Trump's hold on the US presidency will somehow divert their attentions away from his rapidly escalating move to invade Ukraine, he has sorely miscalculated.

In a press release by Senator Ron Johnson,

"U.S. Senators Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), Richard Durbin (D-Ill.) (left: Durbin and Johnson), and 39 of their colleagues introduced a resolution calling for a prompt multinational freedom of navigation operation in the Black Sea and the cancellation of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline in response to Russia’s recent aggressive actions in the Kerch Strait and the Sea of Azov. (my emphasis)


“The United States and our allies need to rapidly counter Russia’s military aggression in the Kerch Strait with strong and resolute action,” Sen. Johnson said. “Assembling a multinational freedom of navigation operation in the Black Sea to help ensure safe passage into the Sea of Azov, combined with cancellation of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline is exactly the kind of response Putin needs to see.” (19 December, 2018) (their emphasis) (Full text of resolution)

 
As ships of NATO, the US, and Great Britain begin to assemble in the Black Sea and, possibly, head towards the Kerch Strait entrance into the Sea of Azov and towards Ukraine's port of Mariupol, will Putin stand in their way?

Should we take him at his word when he said that,

"... The danger of the situation escalating is being downplayed. It now seems to be impossible ... something not of crucial importance .. But at the same time if something like this would happen this might lead to the collapse of the entire civilization ... maybe our planet ..."?

 

Is Putin beginning to fall into the abyss of starting WW3?

(to be continued)

Is Putin throwing Maria Butina OR Donald Trump under the bus.

In August of 2014, the massacre of Ukrainian soldiers retreating from the city of Illovaisk, after being surrounded by Putin's Russian soldiers, took place.

This massacre committed by Putin's soldiers and his proxies in Illovaisk occurred AFTER Putin himself agreed that those encircled Ukrainian soldiers would be allowed to SAFELY retreat from Illovaisk. (cf: Wikipedia, Lucian Kim: Newsweek(Reuters): 4 November, 2014 , BBC : 20 August, 2014)

 

Fast forward to 2018 and we have Putin preparing another Illovaisk massacre.

As reported by UNIAN,

"Military columnist and expert with the Information Resistance OSINT community, Yuriy Karin, has said Russia, to destabilize the situation in Ukraine, may set up another "Ilovaisk pocket."" (UNIAN : Wednesday 12 December, 2018) (my emphasis)

What is more disturbing, as reported by UNIAN,

"Moscow's persistence in claiming that Ukraine is plotting a chemical attack in the occupied Donbas raises serious concerns, says Ukrainian MP Dmytro Tymchuk, who is also a coordinator of the Information Resistance OSINT group.
...
On November 26, a statement was made by Russian ambassador to the OSCE, A. Lukashevich (right), that the Ukrainian Armed Forces "are preparing a provocation with the use of chemical weapons in Donbas."
...
On December 5, at a briefing of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Zakharova (left) told the same thing, adding: “Such actions can lead to civilian casualties and contradict not only the Minsk Agreements, but also international agreements on the prohibition and restriction of weapons of mass destruction...”
(UNIAN : 10 December, 2018) (my emphasis)

Let us not forget the Moscow apartment bombings in 1999 that killed 293 innocent Russian civilians, and injured more than 1,000, and that pointed directly to Putin as the perpetrator of this massacre upon his own people. (cf. CBC : 8 January 2015, Wikipedia, David Satter ; National Review (17 Aug., 2017), Scott Anderson : GQ (March 30, 2017) )

Like Trump, who is now trapped in the evidence-vice of the Mueller investigation into his collusion with Putin during the 2016 US presidential elections, Putin realizes his mis-calculation in attacking Ukraine's ships at the mouth of the Sea of Azov.

No more is this evidenced than by the fact that,

"Today (11 Dec., 2018), the House of Representatives passed H. Res. 1162, which renews calls for Russia to end hostilities that violate Ukraine’s sovereignty, reaffirms the House’s commitment to Ukraine’s independence and security, and urges the president to hold Russia accountable for its aggressive behavior. Passage of the resolution comes in the wake of Russia’s seizure last month of Ukrainian ships and crew in the Azov Sea." (US Foreign Affairs Committee : 11 Dec., 2018) (my emphasis)

 As Paul Gregory (left) also notes,

"Germany has been a lonely supporter of NS2, a pipeline being built by Russia’s gas monopoly, Gazprom, and German/Austrian utility giants
under the Baltic Sea to deliver Russian natural gas directly to Germany.
.....
The election of Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer
(AKK) (right) to succeed Merkel as head of the Christian Democrats (CDU) has provided an
impetus to reconsider the NS2 project, which the influential German newspaper, Die Zeit, calls a “foreign policy disaster for Germany.”
.....
Putin himself, not Germany, reopened the NS2 debate with his blocking the Sea of Azov, seizing Ukrainian naval vessels and charging Ukrainian navy men with criminal acts.
.....
With such rogue behavior, it is increasingly difficult for Germany’s Putin Versteher to argue that NS2 is simply a normal commercial deal. It should be increasingly clear that Gazprom is not a commercial business but an arm of Russian geopolitical policy. (The Hill : 12 Dec., 2018) (my emphasis)

And now we also have Pete Madden, Katherine Faulders, and Matthew Mosk reporting that,

"Maria Butina (left), a 30-year-old Russian gun rights activist who stands accused developing a covert influence operation in the United States, has agreed to plead guilty to conspiracy and cooperate with federal, state and local authorities in any ongoing investigations.
.....
Based on the description, the “Russian Official” appears to be Alexander Torshin, deputy governor of the Russian Central Bank and a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Under his direction, the agreement said, she “sought to establish unofficial lines of communication with Americans having power and influence over U.S. politics.” (ABC News: 10 Dec., 2018) (my emphasis)

ABC News 10 Dec., 2018

Putin's response to this development, was to feign complete ignorance of Butina, even though Alexander Torshin, Putin's deputy governor of his Central Bank, was her handler.

MSNBC (Dec 12, 2018)

Which rather raises the interesting question,

"In light of the international response to his recent rogue behaviour at the mouth of the Sea of Azov (seizing Ukrainian naval vessels and charging Ukrainian navy men with criminal acts), and given that Nord Stream2 may be "reconsidered" by Merkel's CDU successor, is Putin now throwing Maria Butina OR Donald Trump under the bus?

(to be continued)

Putin's finger is now hovering over his nuclear button.

Putin's recent attack on Ukraine's ships at the Kerch Strait entrance into the Sea of Azov has had an international response that he did not quite expect.

As reported by Ryan Browne,

"The US has begun making the necessary preparations to sail a warship into the Black Sea, a move that comes amid heightened tensions in the region following Russia's seizure of Ukrainian ships and detention of Ukrainian sailors.

The US military has requested that the State Department notify Turkey of its possible plans to sail a warship into the Black Sea, three US officials tell CNN, a move they said is a response to Russia's actions against Ukraine in the Kerch Strait, which connects the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov." (CNN : 5 December, 2018) (my emphasis)

We now also have more NATO ships patrolling in the Black Sea.

As reported by Daniel McLaughlin,

"Mr Stoltenberg (left) [ Head of NATO] noted that ships under Nato command have spent 120 days in the Black Sea this year compared with 80 last year, as it continues to strengthen its presence in the region “in response to Russia’s aggressive actions” of recent years.

“So there is already a lot of Nato in the Black Sea. And we will continue to assess our presence in the region,” he added." (The Irish Times : 4 Dec., 2018) (my emphasis)

Added to which,

"A US Air Force OC-135 observation aircraft conducted an "extraordinary flight" Thursday under the Open Skies treaty "to reaffirm US commitment to Ukraine" amid Russia-Ukraine tensions, the Pentagon said.

The Defense Department said US, Canadian, German, French, United Kingdom, Romanian and Ukrainian observers were aboard the aircraft during the observation flight. This flight was requested by the Arms Control Directorate of the Ukrainian General Staff." (Ryan Browne : CNN : 6 December, 2018) (my emphasis)

In an ominous development, Matt Drake reports that,

"Deadly Russian submarine rushed to border as WW3 tensions reach BREAKING POINT

The Kilo-class submarine, dubbed the "Black Hole" due to its ability to disappear suddenly, has been snapped leaving the major Black Sea port of Sevastopol." (Daily Star : 7 December, 2018) (my emphasis)

This was followed by that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov,reacting negatively to a suggestion by German foreign minister, Heiko Mass, that the Osce monitoring mission should extend to the Sea of Azov.

As reported by Yuras Karmanau and Nataliya Vasilyeva,

"[Lavrov (right) retorted by] saying that Russia “has no need” for any intermediaries or monitors in the area." (Independent IE (Associated Press) : 7 December, 2018) (my emphasis)

This rapid escalation of events in the Black Sea has now been further compounded by the fact that,

"Ukraine’s defence ministry has warned Russia it will soon send navy ships through the Kerch Strait where Russia fired on and seized three Ukrainian vessels two weeks ago.

The announcement sets up another possible flashpoint in the long-simmering conflict between Russia and Ukraine that erupted in 2014 with Russia’s annexation of the Crimean peninsula ...." (Breaking News (Press Association) : 7 December,2018) (my emphasis)

Let us recall that just before he was elected president of Russia, Putin boasted about his nuclear arsenal.

In an interview (March, 2018) with Megyn Kelly, just before he was once more given the keys to the Kremlin, Putin stated that,

"We have two reasons that would force us to respond using our nuclear weapons.

• The first is a nuclear attack against us, or 
• An attack against the Russian Federation using conventional weapons, but in this case, if it's a very threat to the existence of the Russian State

YouTube March 2018

Does Putin now view the sending of NATO and US warships to the Black Sea, and the conducting of  an "extraordinary flight" Thursday under the Open Skies treaty "to reaffirm US commitment to Ukraine" amid Russia-Ukraine tensions, a very threat to the existence of the Russian State?

Putin's finger is now hovering over his nuclear button.

(to be continued)

Is the Kerch Strait incident the 'Black Swan' event that will lead to all-out war between Ukraine and Putin?

It was Harold Wilson (left), former British Prime Minister (1964-1976), who said that,

"A week is a long time in politics" (BritPolitics)

That was 50 years ago.

In to-day's digital age we can safely say that,

"A day is a long time in politics".

In my blog entry of 25th Nov., 2018 entry I posed the question,

"What will Trump offer Putin at the upcoming G20 summit in Buenos Aires?"

That question has now been answered by Trump himself, as his tenuous hold on the position of the Presidency of the United States becomes even more tenuous as further revelations of his links with Putin during the 2016 US presidential elections bursts onto the international stage.

As reported by BBC News,

"US President Donald Trump has cancelled a meeting with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, in protest at Russia's seizure of Ukrainian naval boats.
...
Mr Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said Moscow regretted the decision. But in his initial reaction to reports of the cancellation he said: "If this is so, the president will have a couple of extra hours in the programme for useful meetings on the sidelines of the summit."  " (BBC News : 30 Nov., 2018) (my emphasis)

 MSNBC 29 Nov., 2018

So why has Trump, suddenly (and out of character!), cancelled his meeting with Putin at the G20 in Buenos Aires?

As reported by Mark Mazzetti, Benjamin Weiser, Ben Protess and Maggie Haberman

"Donald J. Trump was more involved in discussions over a potential Russian business deal during the presidential campaign than previously known, his former lawyer Michael D. Cohen said Thursday in pleading guilty to lying to Congress. Mr. Trump’s associates pursued the project as the Kremlin was escalating its election sabotage effort meant to help him win the presidency." (New York Times : 29 Nov., 2018) (my emphasis)

MSNBC Nov. 29, 2018

"What", you may ask, "has this to do with Putin's invasion and annexation of Ukraine's Crimea, his ongoing war with Ukraine in the Donbas and, more recently, the dangerous escalation of his war with Ukraine with his attack on Ukraine's ships at the Kerch Strait leading into the Sea of Azov?"

The Maidan Revolution in 2014, that has led to crippling US-EU sanctions against Putin and his 'siloviki', and which Putin thought he could get rid of by helping Donald Trump gain the US presidency in 2016!

The Scarlet Thread of Maidan is inextricably woven into the the truths that are now surfacing about the direct collusion between Putin and Trump during the 2016 US presidential elections.

Let us recall that at the 2016 Republican convention, it was Diana Denman (right), a platform committee member from Texas, who had proposed at the Republican National Security Committee platform meeting in Cleveland,

".... a platform amendment that would call for maintaining or increasing sanctions against Russia, increasing aid for Ukraine and “providing lethal defensive weapons” to the Ukrainian military.

As  Josh Rogin (left) then reported,

"The Trump campaign worked behind the scenes last week
to make sure the new Republican platform won’t call for giving weapons to Ukraine to fight Russian and rebel forces, contradicting the view of almost all Republican foreign policy leaders in Washington."
...
Throughout the campaign, Trump has been dismissive of calls for supporting the Ukraine government as it fights an ongoing Russian-led intervention. Trump’s campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, worked as a lobbyist for the Russian-backed former Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych for more than a decade." (Josh Rogin : Washington Post : July 18, 2018) (my emphasis) 

We now learn that Trump's fawning attitude towards Putin, besides being motivated by his desire for a 'Trump Tower' in Moscow, may also be due to his near pathological fear of the public exposure  of the 'kompromat' that Putin has on him, as revealed in the Steele Dossier.

Rachel Maddow: MSNBC 29/11/2018 (Full Analysis)

Now that the Putin-Trump meeting at the G20 has been cancelled, all eyes will be focused on the Merkel-Putin meeting that has been pre-arranged.

As reported by Duncan Ferris,

"Earlier in the day, German Chancellor Angela Merkel had committed to meeting with Putin at the G20 summit in Argentina this weekend after she condemned Russia as “entirely” to blame for the naval incident in the Kerch Strait, accusing Moscow of restricting access to the Sea of Azov

Merkel said that Russia’s actions violated a 2003 agreement that guaranteed free movement in the area, but Putin insisted that the move was justified as the Ukrainian vessels had “trespassed” into Russian waters." (WebFG News : 30 Nov., 2018) (my emphasis)

How will 'Putinversteher' Merkel deal with Putin on this international stage?

One need look no further than the joint Russian-German Nord Stream2 venture, as well as the fact that Siemens equipment now lights up Putin's annexed Ukraine Crimea

It is very easy for Merkel to condemn Putin's recent attacks on Ukraine's ships at the Kerch Strait.

But how is the world to confront the fact that,

"Vadim Astafyev, a spokesman for Russia’s southern military district, was cited by Russian news agencies as saying that a new battalion of advanced S-400 surface-to-air missiles would be delivered to Crimea soon and become operational by year’s end." (Andrew Osborn, Anton Zverev : Reuters : 28 Nov., 2018) (my emphasis)

Is the international backlash against Putin for his attack on Ukraine's ships at the Kerch Strait the 'Black Swan' event that will lead to all-out war between Ukraine and Putin? 

(to be continued)

 STOP PRESS

On the Rachel Maddow Show last night (30 Nov., 2018) it was revealed that Putin's interference in the 2016 US presidential elections was focused exclusively on getting the US sanctions against Russia lifted. 

This was Putin's primary objective in handing Trump the keys to the White House.

As I wrote earlier yesterday (30 Nov., 2018) in this blog entry, 

"The Maidan Revolution in 2014, that has led to crippling US-EU sanctions against Putin and his 'siloviki', and which Putin thought he could get rid of by helping Donald Trump gain the US presidency in 2016!" (cf. above)

Already the call for an extension of EU sanctions against Putin is meeting with LESS EU support than one may have anticipated, given Putin's preparation for a possible invasion of Ukraine as evidenced by his recent actions against Ukraine's ships at the Kerch Strait, and the delivery of a new battalion of advanced S-400 surface-to-air missiles to Crimea that will soon become operational by year’s end.

(to be continued)

Both Putin and Trump are now teetering on the brink of lighting the touchpaper of World War3.

In my last blog entry (25 Nov., 2018), just before Putin escalated his war with Ukraine in the Sea of Asov, I wrote that,

"We therefore have to ask ourselves,

"Will the upcoming talks in Berlin to-morrow (26 Nov.,2018) about the deployment of UN peace-keepers in the Donbas really reach a positive agreement between Ukraine, Germany, France and Russia?" (cf. UNIAN-22 November)

More importantly,

"What will Trump offer Putin at the upcoming G20 summit?" (Blog : 25 Nov., 2018)

Let us recall that Trump constantly blames Obama for Ukraine losing Crimea.

Trump has never acknowledged that Putin INVADED and ILLEGALLY ANNEXED Ukraine's Crimea. 

C-Span  Nov. 7, 2018

As also reported by RFE/RL as recently as November 7th.,

"U.S. President Donald Trump blamed the “regime” of former President Barack Obama for Ukraine’s loss of its Crimean Peninsula, which was seized and annexed by Russia in 2014
...
Trump made the comments during a wide-ranging and sometimes hostile news conference at the White House on November 7 to comment on the U.S. midterm election results." (RFE/RL : 7th Nov., 2018) (my emphasis)

Trump's position stands in direct contrast to the statement released by Mike Pompeo, US Secretary of State, who stated that,

"To-day the Trump administration is releasing what we are calling the Crimea Declaration ... but one part reads as follows, quote,

"The United States calls on Russia to respect the principles to which it has long claimed to adhere, and to end its occupation of Crimea. I want to assure this committee that the United States does not and will not recognize the Kremlin's purported annexation of Crimea" (Jason Lemon : Newsweek : 7 Nov., 2018) (my emphasis)

Newsweek 7 Nov. 2018

This disconnect between Trump and his Secretary of State has been thrown into sharp relief by Putin's dangerous escalation of his war with Ukraine at the Kerch strait leading into the Sea of Azov.

On Sunday 25th November, 2018, Putin ordered his navy to attack Ukraine's ships trying to pass through the Kerch Strait towards Ukrainian ports on its Sea of Azov coastline.

As reported by the BBC,

"The three [Ukrainian] ships were sailing off the coast of Crimea, which was annexed by Russia in 2014, when they were seized.

Russia opened fire, before its special forces stormed the vessels. Between three and six Ukrainians were injured.

Ukraine said it was a Russian "act of aggression". Moscow said the ships had illegally entered its waters." (BBC News: 26 Nov., 2018) (my emphasis)

BBC News: 26 Nov., 2018

The furore that Putin's aggression against Ukraine at the Kerch strait leading into the Sea of Azov has caused in international diplomatic circles has put a spotlight on Trump and Putin's arranged meeting at the G20 in Buenos Aires in 2 days time.

Putin's Kremlin mouthpiece, Dmitry Peskov, has stated that,

"The situation over the Kerch Strait does not affect preparations for a meeting between Russian President Vladimir  Putin and his US counterpart Donald Trump at the G20 in Buenos Aires, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov, said" (MSNBC1 & MSNBC2: 26 Nov., 2018) (my emphasis)

MSNBC1 & MSNBC2

So to the questions posed at the top of this blog viz.

• "Will the upcoming talks in Berlin to-morrow (26 Nov.,2018) about the deployment of UN peace-keepers in the Donbas really reach a positive agreement between Ukraine, Germany, France and Russia?" AND
• "What will Trump offer Putin at the upcoming G20 summit?"

the answers can categorically be stated that,

• The Berlin talks have failed even before they had begun, and
• Expect Trump to reinforce Putin's hold over Ukraine's Crimea by soft-peddling Putin's escalation of his war with Ukraine at the Kerch Strait that leads into the Sea of Azov.   

As former Ukrainian lieutenant-general Igor Romanenko (right) recently said,

".... the blocking of ships [at the Kerch Strait by Putin's forces] could prompt the West to impose further sanctions on Russia, which could have devastating consequences.
 ...
He said a "large-scale war" is possible if Russia continues to "aggravate the situation" in the Sea of Azov by conducting invasive inspections and seizing fishing ships. (UNIAN : 23 November, 2018) (my emphasis)

Both Putin and Trump are now teetering on the brink of lighting the touchpaper of World War3.

(to be continued)

What will Trump offer Putin at the upcoming G20 summit in Buenos Aires?

On November 23rd, Putin went to Ukraine's Crimea. As reported by UNIAN,

"On Friday, the president will be working at the Yalta-based Mriya hotel. There, he will hold an expanded meeting of the State Council Presidium on the tasks specified in the May decree," Peskov said in a statement." (UNIAN : 22 November, 2018) (my emphasis)

It is not know what these "tasks specified in the May decree" are, but it should be borne in mind that, as Henry Foy reports,

"Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin will hold a full meeting at the G20 summit in Buenos Aires that begins at the end of this month, the Kremlin has said, after a planned meeting in Paris this weekend was downgraded to a brief “stand up conversation.” (Financial Times : November 7, 2018) (my emphasis).

Notwithstanding the fact that just recently, Mike Pompeo, US Secretary of State, stated that,

“The United States will never accept Russia’s attempted annexation of Crimea,” he said. “We will continue to impose consequences against Russia until Moscow fully implements the Minsk agreements and returns control of Crimea to Ukraine.” (Kyiv Post : November 17, 2018) ( my emphasis),

Trump's increasing precarious position as the President of the United States, especially in light of the US Congress soon to be (January 2019) under the control of the Democratic Party, may lead him to give concessions to Putin at their impending meeting in Buenos Aires that will further tighten Putin's grip on Ukraine's Crimea. ( Full analysis:  MSNBC 1, MSNBC 2)

That Putin will demand concessions from Trump in Buenos Aires will come on the heels of slumping oil prices. As reported by Jessica Resnick-Ault (left),

"Oil prices slumped up to nearly 8 percent to the lowest in more than a year on Friday, posting the seventh consecutive weekly loss, amid intensifying fears of a supply glut even as major producers consider cutting output.
...
International benchmark Brent crude oil futures hit their lowest since December 2017 at $61.52 per barrel, before recovering to $61.88 by 0622 GMT. That was still 72 cents, or 1.2 percent below their last close." (Reuters : November 23, 2018) (my emphasis) 

The volatility of oil prices is not the only thing that Putin has on his mind.

As reported by Dominic Nicholls and Jamie Johnson,

"Britain will increase military support for Ukraine as the country continues to face Russian aggression, the Defence Secretary will announce today. Additional troops and a Royal Navy ship will be deployed to Ukraine to defend “freedom and democracy”.

...
“As long as Ukraine faces Russian hostilities, it will find a steadfast partner in the United Kingdom,” Defence Secretary, Gavin Williamson (right), will say." (Daily Telegraph : 21 November, 2018) (my emphasis) 

 
This response of Britain is in the face of Putin continuing to escalate his war with Ukraine in the Sea of Asov.

As reported by UNIAN,

"Former Ukrainian lieutenant-general Igor Romanenko (right) said the blocking of ships [at the Kerch Strait by Putin's forces] could prompt the West to impose further sanctions on Russia, which could have devastating consequences.
 ...
He said a "large-scale war" is possible if Russia continues to "aggravate the situation" in the Sea of Azov by conducting invasive inspections and seizing fishing ships. (UNIAN : 23 November, 2018) (my emphasis)

Russian ships within 25 m of Nato fleet in Sea of Asov

 

We therefore have to ask ourselves,

"Will the upcoming talks in Berlin to-morrow about the deployment of UN peace-keepers in the Donbas really reach a positive agreement between Ukraine, Germany, France and Russia?" (cf. UNIAN-22 November)

More importantly,

"What will Trump offer Putin at the upcoming G20 summit?"

(to be continued)

Will Trump sign off on supplying Ukraine with more lethal weaponry

Fakhir Rizvi (left) reports that,

"Speaking in Hamburg, [Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki] said Russia could attack Ukraine after the launch of the Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline.

He said "escalation of aggression" against Kiev might follow when the Ukrainian gas transportation system ceased to play such an important role for Moscow." (UrduPoint: 19th November,2018) (my emphasis)
 
To which Putin's mouthpiece in the Kremlin, Dmitry Peskov (right), replied that,

"This is an unsuccessful statement. Nord Stream-2 is a commercially viable and economically feasible project. Moreover, it is economically attractive not only for the supplier, but also for the recipients of this gas in Europe, primarily in Germany." (ibid Fakhir Rizvi) (my emphasis)

Joshua Clarson neatly sums up the precarious political nature of Nord Stream2 for the EU. 

"The Nord Stream 2 project could be a tricky issue for Europe. Germany is a major partner in the project and, as such, the EU is unlikely to take action against it. However, this reluctance could hinder cooperation with the US, while a lack of economic deterrence from the West could also embolden Moscow in its ongoing conflict with Kiev." (Foreign Brief : 18 November, 2018) (my emphasis)

That Putin has already been emboldened by the near-completion of the Nord Stream2 pipeline is evidenced by the fact that the OSCE SMM report that, 

• Aerial imagery available to the SMM revealed the presence of 18 tanks and three surface-to-air missile systems
•  Aerial imagery available to the SMM also revealed the presence on 14 November of 29 tanks (type undetermined) in a training area near Kruhlyk  and 22 tanks, nine pieces of self-propelled artillery, 18 pieces of towed artillery in a training area near Myrne 
• The same aerial imagery available to the SMM also revealed the presence of 76 armoured combat vehicles (ACV),23 ACVs  in the above-mentioned training area near Shymshynivka and 79 ACVs in the above-mentioned training area near Myrne.

Furthermore, Putin continues to attempt a stranglehold against Ukraine in the Sea of Azov.

As reported by UNIAN,

"Speaker for the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine Oleh Slobodyan (left) has said...

"The process of [Russia] increasing their military component in the Sea of Azov was gradual. Russia has increased its presence, but here we can rather talk about the regrouping of certain naval forces for possible action in the Sea of Azov, i.e. re-locating ships from the waters off coast the temporarily annexed peninsula to a new bridgehead, which is the Sea of Azov". (UNIAN : 16 November, 2018) (my emphasis)

Putin, however, is being rattled by the US Department of State which, it would seem, is acting independently of a beleaguered Trump. (MSNBC)

  
As reported by UNIAN,
 
"U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo says the United States and Ukraine will work together to stop the Nord Stream 2 project. ".... "We'll keep working together to stop the Nord Stream 2 project that undermines Ukraine's economic and strategic security and risks further compromising the sovereignty of European nations that depend on Russian gas," Pompeo said in remarks after a meeting with Ukraine's Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin in Washington, D.C., on Friday, November 16." (UNIAN : 17 November, 2018) (my emphasis)

Ominously, however, Mike Pompeo seems to have taken over the mantle of Merkel in trying to use the 'dead horse' of Minsk2 as a bargaining chip with Putin.

This position of Pompeo should be viewed against the reporting of Joe Gould (left) that,

"The U.S. and Ukraine are in “close discussion” for Washington to supply another tranche of lethal weapons for Kiev’s fight in eastern Ukraine, where “Russians keep bringing new military technology,” Ukraine’s foreign minister said Saturday." (18 November, 2018) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, Pavlo Klimkin, Ukraine's Foreign Minister, re-affirmed in Canada that,

" ...[Ukraine] is determined to take back the region of Crimea, which was annexed by Russia in 2014 and remains under occupation.

“Occupied Crimea under Russia is going nowhere, so fundamentally we will be able to get Crimea back." (Jessica Vomiero : Global News : 18 November, 2018) (my emphasis)

If, indeed, the US Senate and Congress may be preparing to supply Ukraine with another tranche of lethal weaponry in their war with Putin, it should always be remembered that Trump will have to sign off on any such commitment.

The question is, "Will he or won't he sign off on supplying Ukraine with more lethal weaponry in their war with Putin."

Trump and Putin will be having  a 'private' meeting at the G20 summit in Buenos Aires on the 30th of this month.

We can be certain that whatever may emerge out of the Mueller investigation into the Putin-Trump collusion during the 2016 US presidential election will simply be compounding the negative impact of the Mueller investigation on Trump's frame of mind.

Which makes the question, "Will he or won't he sign off on supplying Ukraine with more lethal weaponry in their war with Putin" even more urgent.

 One can but wait and see.

(to be continued)