Will Putin use his "nuclear gas option" against Ukraine?

In my last blog entry (11 May, 2019) I stated that,

"Rick Stengel of MSNBC hits the nail on the head when he said that,

"... I actually want to go back to the Ukraine issue ... This is also a potential area of collusion between Trump and Putin ... Why ... Putin annexed [Ukraine Crimea] in 2014 ... He had a soft invasion of Ukraine in 2015 ... Now you have the President of the United States basically saying, "Let's make a deal about this ... If you're Ukraine you're caught between these two corrupt administrations ... " (MSNBC : 10 May, 2019) (my emphasis)"

 MSNBC (10 May 2019)

 

We now learnt that,

"President Trump won't cut support for Ukraine in exchange for Russia doing the same with Venezuela, U.S. officials said as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo prepared to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin.
...
[A] Moscow Times columnist wrote in outlining Putin’s position. “Withdrawing Russian military support for Maduro should also be matched by the withdrawal of U.S. military assistance to Ukraine.”

[O]ne U.S. official familiar with the Ukraine negotiations added,
...
“Ukraine has a big say in this. They are not our client, they don't do what we tell them,” the official said on condition of anonymity. “Then you have France and Germany and the European Union involved, and all of these players are not going to act on some behind-the-door, Trump-Putin secret deal — and I'm not even saying that that's what our president would do." The official added that "even if the president wanted to do that, he couldn’t.”
 ...
 “[T]he additional U.S. aid is “set by Congress, and that’s not going to change.” (Joel Gehrke (right): Washington Examiner : May 14, 2019) (my emphasis)

Underscoring this reporting by Joel Gehrke, Darya Korsunskaya (left) also reports that,

"U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said after talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov that he had told Moscow to free a group of detained Ukrainian sailors and to work with Ukraine’s new president to bring peace to eastern Ukraine.

Pompeo also told a news conference that he had told Lavrov that it was time for Venezuela’s leader Nicolas Maduro, a long-time Russian ally, to quit.

Lavrov said Maduro’s future should be decided by the Venezuelan people and called U.S. pressure on him undemocratic. (Reuters : 14 May, 2019) (my emphasis)

Pompeo and Lavrov

The sheer arrogance of that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, to state that, " ... Maduro’s future should be decided by the Venezuelan people and called U.S. pressure on him undemocratic" when his boss, Putin, is desperately trying to impose his will on the democratic choices of the Ukrainian people, simply beggars belief.

Added to which, Putin's mouthpiece Dmitry Peskov (right), now states that,

"...U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has not called on Russian President Vladimir Putin to "reach out to Ukraine," and this topic was allegedly not discussed at all. "Mr. Pompeo didn't call on President Putin to do this [to reach out to Ukraine's new government].
...
Maybe he somehow did this indirectly, but the topic of Ukraine was not discussed at the meeting with the president yesterday," (UNIAN : 15 May, 2019) (my emphasis)

 The Orwellian Doublespeak of Lavrov and Peskov somewhat reminds us of what Angela Merkel once said of Putin.

" [S]he said that “she was not sure he [Putin] was in touch with reality.” The Russian leader, she added, seemed to be “in another world.” (Marvin Kalb : Brookings : 4 March, 2014) (my emphasis)

It is therefor ironic that this same Angela Merkel who in 2014, the year of the Maidan Revolution, recognized that Putin was not in touch with reality, nonetheless now seems to be economically supporting him by maintaining that the Nord Steam2 pipeline that will make Germany the Gas hub of Europe, and will be the primary economic lifeline for Putin's failing Russian economy, has nothing to do with Putin's attempts to destroy Ukraine. (cf: DW 4 February, 2019)

Since Denmark has not issued construction permits and has requested that Nord Stream change its route, UNIAN reports that,

"Ukraine gas experts point with some alarm to Gazprom's accumulation of gas in European storage facilities. As they fill up, Gazprom leases more storage facilities. The gas in storage, the Ukrainians think, is being accumulated to meet Russia's minimum contractual deliveries to Europe while bypassing Ukraine's pipelines in total." (UNIAN : 15 May, 2019) (my emphasis)

Paul Gregory (right) also informs us that,

"Ukraine’s gas company, Naftogaz, worries that Putin is preparing to launch what amounts to a “nuclear gas option” that will push Ukraine into recession and create gas shortages throughout Europe. Russia’s move, they think, will take place on or around Jan. 1, 2020." (Forbes : 13 May, 2019) (my emphasis)

Recalling what Merkel said about Putin not being in touch with reality, will Putin use his "nuclear gas option" against Ukraine?

(to be continued)

Can Zelensky withstand the coming onslaught of Putin and Trump against him?

In my last blog entry (6 May, 2019) I pointed to the 'mystery' surrounding the recent 'private' telephone call between Putin and his Manchurian Candidate, Donald Trump.

As reported by Maegan Vazquez and Allie Malloy (left),

"The Kremlin said the phone call was initiated by Trump.
...
Friday's conversation was part of a larger discussion that was focused on the crisis in Venezuela and also touched on North Korea, a potential nuclear deal with Russia and China, and the situation in Ukraine. (CNN : 4 May, 2019) (my emphasis)

Rick Stengel of MSNBC hits the nail on the head when he said that,

"... I actually want to go back to the Ukraine issue ... This is also a potential area of collusion between Trump and Putin ... Why ... Putin annexed [Ukraine Crimea] in 2014 ... He had a soft invasion of Ukraine in 2015 ... Now you have the President of the United States basically saying, "Let's make a deal about this ... If you're Ukraine you're caught between these two corrupt administrations ... " (MSNBC : 10 May, 2019) (my emphasis)

 MSNBC (10 May 2019)

 

However, it is NOT insignificant that, shortly after the Trump-Putin telephone conversation, Emily Tillett reports that,

"President Trump's personal attorney Rudy Giuliani (right) says it's his right to travel to Ukraine to "defend" his client -- to try to push for investigations that he thinks could be "very helpful" to the president.
...
He said there's "nothing illegal" about his effort to pursue probes in Ukraine, since he is not trying to carry out foreign policy initiatives on behalf of the administration." (CBS News : 10 May, 2019) (my emphasis)

CNN News (May 10, 2019)

Hardly had Giuliani uttered his words about going to Ukraine "...to try to push for investigations that he thinks could be "very helpful" to the president" when he suddenly decided against going to Ukraine.

As reported by Caroline Kelly and Kyle Feldscher, Giuliani then stated that,

"I'm not gonna go," he said, "because I think I'm walking into a group of people that are enemies of the President, in some cases enemies of the United States and, in one case, an already convicted person who has been found to be involved in assisting the Democrats with the 2016 election." (CNN : 11 May, 2019) (my emphasis)

In other words, Giuliani now sees the incoming President-elect of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, as an enemy not only of Donald Trump but, more significantly, as an enemy of the United States.

After Giuliani's announcement about cancelling his trip to Ukraine, suddenly we have the announcement that,

"Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin next week as the Trump administration sends mixed messages about the state of relations with Moscow.

The State Department announced Friday that Pompeo would meet with Putin and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Sochi, Russia, next Tuesday.

The leaders are expected to have "frank discussions" on a broad range of multilateral and bilateral issues, including arms control, Ukraine, Venezuela, North Korea and Iran, according to a senior State Department official." (Jennifer Hansler (left): CNN : 10 May, 2019) (my emphasis)

 

This 'sudden' meeting between Pompeo and Putin is inextricably linked to the impending appearance of Robert Mueller in front of  a House Congressional Committee.

Trump is petrified about what Mueller may divulge to the Congressional Committee.

WHY????

As reported by Stephanie Baker and Helena Bedwell,

"A Georgian-American businessman is accusing Special Counsel Robert Mueller of “glaring inaccuracies” and sensationalizing texts about alleged salacious tapes involving Donald Trump’s 2013 trip to Moscow.

In a letter to U.S. Attorney General William Barr on Tuesday, lawyers for Giorgi Rtskhiladze demanded a retraction to a footnote in Mueller’s 448-page report on Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election." (Bloomberg News : 24 April, 2019) (my emphasis)

Rachel Maddow (25 April, 2019) examines in more detail the nature of the texts between  Giorgi Rtskhiladze and Michael Cohen. (Full video: MSNBC YouTube) (Steele Dossier)

President-elect of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, is now in the dangerous situation where Trump is scrambling to try and conceal the collusion between himself and Putin regarding Ukraine.

 Will Zelensky be able to withstand the coming onslaught against himself by Putin and Trump?

(to be continued)

How will Zelensky handle the dangerous unpredictability of Putin and Trump?

Ukrainian president-elect. Volodmyr Zelinsky (left), has stated that,

" ...  "several moves" are in the pipeline to respond to the issue of Russian passports in Russia-occupied Donbas. "[We're] preparing. We have got several moves, so to speak. 
...
In this issue, we must be creative, we must be fast, smart – as we are, fresh. Therefore, we're working now, and then we will show [them]," Zelensky said when asked if he has any legislative proposals concerning the issue of Russian passports in Donbas, according to an UNIAN correspondent. (UNIAN : 4 May, 2019) (my emphasis)

 Just one day later, UNIAN also reports that,

"We found out that the 'DPR' illegal armed formations, with financial and organizational support on the part of the Russian Federation, is carrying out a total militarization of children, teenagers and youth living in the occupied part of Donetsk region through paramilitary bootcamps and pseudo-patriotic clubs," the report said. (YouTube)
...
At the same time, the ideology of separatism and the 'Russian World' is being imposed on children. (UNIAN : 5 May, 2019) (my emphasis)

And if this is not bad enough for the incoming president of Ukraine, Volodmyr Zelinsky, Trump and Putin had a one hour telephone conversation last Friday, 3 May 2019, during which they discussed, among other things,Ukraine.


As reported by Maegan Vazquez and Allie Malloy (left),

"The Kremlin said the phone call was initiated by Trump.
...
Friday's conversation was part of a larger discussion that was focused on the crisis in Venezuela and also touched on North Korea, a potential nuclear deal with Russia and China, and the situation in Ukraine. (CNN : 4 May, 2019) (my emphasis)

(full video: MSNBC : 4 May, 2019)

The questions that now have to be asked of Ukraine's president-elect Volodmyr Zelinsky are:

• What "creative" legislative proposals concerning the issue of Russian passports in Donbas does he have in mind?
• How is he going to respond to Putin who, following in the footsteps of so many brutal rebel forces in Africa, is now bankrolling the training of children in rebel-occupied Eastern Ukraine (Donbas) to become soldiers? 

Critically, how is Zelensky going to deal with Trump, Putin's 'Manchurian Candidate'?

Already,

"There has been escalation in Donbas, eastern Ukraine, as the number of Russia-led forces' attacks on Ukrainian positions grew to 21 instances on May 3; proscribed weapons – 120mm and 82mm mortars – were used in nine attacks." (UNIAN : 4 May, 2019) (my emphasis)

This escalation of his war with Ukraine is Putin's way of deflecting the growing economic crisis in Russia from the minds of the Russian people.

Just today, as Ahmad Ghaddar (left) reports,

"Oil prices tumbled on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump said he would sharply raise tariffs on Chinese goods this week, risking the derailment of trade talks between the world’s two biggest economies." (Reuters : 6 May, 2019) (my emphasis)

This fall in  the price of oil simply compounds Putin's woes about the failing Russian economy.

Meanwhile,

• Consumer price-inflation continues to decline in Ukraine, slowing to 5% (UNIAN: 5 May, 2019)

• The IMF will continue to support Ukraine in its efforts to,"complete the transformation of Ukraine into a modern market economy that is firmly governed by the rule of law and that is able to attract the higher levels of investment needed to achieve stronger and sustainable growth, and for incomes to catch up with the levels seen in Ukraine's regional peers." Christine Lagarde (right): UNIAN : 3 May 2019) (my emphasis)

Ukraine's president-elect Zelenzky will have to deal with a Putin and a Trump who are both facing dangers to their respective presidencies.

Putin will escalate his war against Ukraine to try and regain his popuarity amongst the Russian people.

Trump, on the other hand, is using an economic war against China to save his presidency.

How will Zelensky handle the dangerous unpredictability of Putin and Trump?  

(to be continued)

Putin has thrown down the gauntlet. How will Zelenskiy respond?

Even before his inauguration as Ukraine's next president, Putin has already pounced upon Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

Speaking at a press conference at the Belt and Road Forum in Beijing,


"Putin said on Saturday Moscow was considering offering all Ukrainian citizens fast-tracked Russian passports, a move likely to anger some politicians in Ukraine which has been at war with pro-Russian separatists since 2014." (Vladimir Soldatkin : Reuters : 27 April, 2019) (my emphasis)

Not only is Putin displaying his contempt for Zelenskiy and ALL Ukrainians but, as Soldatkin further reports,

"[Putin] also wanted to know Zelenskiy’s position on the conflict in eastern Ukraine, saying he had the impression that Zelenskiy would not implement the terms of a peace deal sealed in Minsk in 2015 despite Ukrainians being tired of the war.

Now recall that in his victory speech,

" ... Zelenskiy outlined his priorities. To start revamping the 2015 Minsk accords to end hostilities with pro-Russian separatists in the east [of Ukraine] ..." ( AFP YouTube )

As Vladimir Frolov (right) of 'The Moscow Times' wrote,

"[Zelinskiy believes that] talks with Moscow should take place in the presence of Western mediators, and the Normandy format should be remodeled to include the United States and Great Britain in a "Budapest style format""

whilst at the same time,

 "... [T]he head spokesperson of Zelenskiy's election headquarters, Dmitry Razumkov, confirmed that Zelenskiy's adherence to the Minsk negotiation process is untenable ("all the anti-Russia sanctions are linked to it"), but made it clear that Zelenskiy would not implement the Minsk agreements as interpreted by Russia" (The Moscow Times : 24 April, 2019) (my emphasis)

And now Putin is goading Zelenskiy to try and "remodel" his Minsk2 accords by remarking that,

“I’d discuss this matter with him with pleasure as I want to understand his stance ...” (ibid Vladimir Soldatkin)

And standing side-by-side with Putin, we now have his Manchurian candidate, Donald Trump, signalling that,

" ...  he is keen on pursuing allegations that Ukraine tried to hamper his presidential bid in 2016.

Speaking on his favorite Fox News Channel, which provides uncritical, partisan support for Trump, the president said “big” and “incredible” new allegations have emerged that Ukraine tried to influence the outcome of the 2016 election in favor of his rival, Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton." (Askold Krushelnycky : KyivPost : 27 April, 2019) (my emphasis) (Fox News : YouTube : 25 April 2019)

And whilst Manchurian candidate Trump is standing side-by-side with Putin, Christopher Miller reports that,

"The U.S. State Department has slammed an order by Russian President Vladimir Putin to simplify the procedure for people living in parts of eastern Ukraine held by Russia-backed separatists to obtain Russian citizenship.

"Russia, through this highly provocative action, is intensifying its assault on Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity," the State Department said in a statement on April 24." (RFERL : 24 April, 2019) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, US Congressional Representative Michael McCaul (right) is urging that,

"Washington should increase foreign military sales and security assistance to Ukraine.
.......
There are more actions we can take. Specifically, we should develop an effective Black Sea strategy where the United States, NATO, and other U.S. allies can regularly deploy naval assets there to better support Ukraine against Russia.  We should also increase foreign military sales and security assistance to Ukraine." (The National Interest : 27 April, 2019) (my emphasis)

Putin has already warned that,

"Russia will take direct action to counter NATO’s drills in the Black Sea.

The country’s deputy foreign minister, Alexander Grushko, slammed the military alliance for its movements in the strategic region saying they would “undermine stability. His comments come as five NATO ships took part in Sea Shield 2019, an annual Romanian-led naval exercise in the Black Sea. When questioned on how Moscow views the military conglomerate’s build-up in the region, he responded: “Definitely negative”. (Laura O'Callaghan : Express : 14 April, 2019) (my emphasis)

And whilst Putin wants to shower Ukraine with Russian passports,

"Russia's hybrid military forces in the past 24 hours mounted 23 attacks on Ukrainian army positions in Donbas, with two Ukrainian soldiers reported as wounded in action." (UNIAN : 27 April 2019) (my emphasis)

 RFERL (26 April, 2019)

Ukraine's new incoming president, Volodmyr Zelenskiy, faces tough challenges ahead.

Putin has thrown down the gauntlet.

How will Zelenskiy respond?

(to be continued)

With Volodymyr Zelenski's election win, will Putin now pounce against Ukraine?

The euphoria of the Volodymyr Zelenskiy (left) win in Ukraine's presidential elections is over, and a bad hangover has begun to set in.

As reported by AFP (Agence France Presse),

"... [M]any doubt the political neophyte will be able to stand up to Putin and revive the struggling economy.

Questions have also been raised over his close ties to Israel-based tycoon Igor Kolomoysky." (AFP : 22 April, 2019) (my emphasis) (cf also: Zelenskiy’s team and oligarch Kolomoisky : KyivPost)

YouTube (22 April, 2019)

In his victory speech,

" ... Zelinskiy outlined his priorities. To start revamping the 2015 Minsk accords to end hostilities with pro-Russian separatists in the east [of Ukraine] ..." (cf  AFP YouTube video above)

More significantly, Vladimir Frolov (right) of 'The Moscow Times' neatly points to the stumbling blocks that president-elect Volodymyr Zelinskiy will have to face in trying to 'revamp' the 2015 Minsk accords.

• "Based on what Zelenskiy said about the Donbass, it is clear that he has only a vague understanding of the details of the agreement.  

• [Zelinskiy believes that] talks with Moscow should take place in the presence of Western mediators, and the Normandy format should be remodeled to include the United States and Great Britain in a "Budapest style format".

•  ... [T]he head spokesperson of Zelenskiy's election headquarters, Dmitry Razumkov, confirmed that Zelenskiy's adherence to the Minsk negotiation process is untenable ("all the anti-Russia sanctions are linked to it"), but made it clear that Zelenskiy would not implement the Minsk agreements as interpreted by Russia" (The Moscow Times : 24 April, 2019) (my emphasis) 

Sergey Lavrov (left), that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign Minister, has already poured cold water over Zelenskiy's rhetoric about the Minsk accords by stating that,

"Fulfilling the Minsk agreements and resolving this problem is our direct interest," Sergey Lavrov said at the Assembly of the Council for Foreign and Defence Policy. "We achieved a great feat securing Minsk II in the UN Security Council resolution." (ibid Vladimir Frolov) (my emphasis)

Even more ominously, Vladimir Frolov further states that,

"Zelenskiy will not be able to recognize Russian sovereignty over the Crimea (although he did declare that Crimea has de facto been lost to Ukraine and he has no intention of fighting Russia over it)." (ibid Vladimir Frolov) (my emphasis)

Let us remind ourselves that in 2015, a year after Putin invaded and annexed Ukraine's Crimea, Putin's then installed prime minister of Ukraine's Crimea, Sergei Aksyonov, stated that,

"Crimea's prime minister has told the BBC the peninsula has returned to its historical Russian homeland and will never again be part of Ukraine." (BBC : 16 March, 2015) (my emphasis)

Four years later (2019), the president-elect of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenski, seems to be in complete agreement with Sergei Aksyonov that Ukraine's Crimea,

" .... will never again be part of Ukraine (BBC 2015)..." and that, " ... he [Zelinskiy] has no intention of fighting Russia over it (Vladimir Frolov)

Zelenskiy (2019)       Aksyonov (2015)

And whilst president-elect Zelenskiy has no intention of fighting Russia over Ukraine's Crimea, UNIAN reports that,

"Russia's hybrid military forces in the past 24 hours mounted 14 attacks on Ukrainian army positions in Donbas, with one Ukrainian soldier reported as killed in action, and another three as wounded in action." (UNIAN : 23 April, 2019) (my emphasis)

As Justin Lynch also writes,

"Zelensky will find his sense of humor—and substance—tested even before his inauguration, which is expected to come about a month after the official results are announced, probably next week. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is not noted for his mirth, may be ready to pounce sooner amid a Russian military and naval buildup, foreign and Ukrainian military officials told Foreign Policy." (Foreign Policy : 22 April, 2019) (my emphasis) 


Will Putin now pounce against Ukraine?

 

 (to be continued)

Putin is now waiting in the wings to time his invasion of Ukraine

As the minutes slowly tick down towards Ukraine's presidential election, we learn from an online military magazine that,

"Russian officials publicly threaten Ukraine with “military conflict”, according to TASS.

Russia’s Federation Council on Wednesday approved a statement saying that violations of the rules of navigation by Ukrainian ships in the Kerch Strait are fraught with a military conflict with Russia in which NATO may be involved.
The Federation Council’s statement about NATO’s destructive policies being implemented since the alliance’s creation in 1949 was timed for the organization’s 70th anniversary." (Defence Blog : 10 April, 2019) (my emphasis) (cf also: UNIAN: 11 April, 2019)

And ominously,

"Ukrainian MP and coordinator of the Information Resistance OSINT Group Dmytro Tymchuk (left) has said the Russian Federation has sent up to 10 transportation platforms with T-72 tanks and four Grad multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) to occupied Donbas, eastern Ukraine.
...
 "Up to 10 platforms with T-72 tanks and four 122mm Grad MLRS have been redeployed from the territory of the Russian Federation," he wrote on Facebook on April 12. About 2,300 tonnes of fuel and lubricants were reportedly delivered from Russia for its occupation forces in Donbas, Tymchuk added." (UNIAN : 12 April, 2019) (my emphasis)

Is this a response to the fact that,

"Construction of Russia’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline to Germany is bound to face further long delays, forcing Moscow to come to an agreement with Ukraine on future gas transits, a senior EU official said on Thursday." (Alissa de Carbonnel (right): Reuters : 11 April, 2019) (my emphasis)

As Colin Cleary, the director for energy diplomacy for Europe at the State Department’s U.S. bureau for energy resources stated,

“[Putin's] not crazy. [Nord Stream 2] makes a lot of sense. They want to hurt Ukraine, they want to have a special relationship with Germany.” (ibid Alissa de Carbonnel)

As UNIAN also reports,

"In addition to uncertainties over the pipeline’s route due to pending approval from Denmark, and how it will comply with EU rules, [Klaus-Dieter Borchardt (left), a senior energy official at the European Commission,]
said he expected that gas transits from Germany via the Czech Republic to other EU states would also not be in place by 2020." (UNIAN : 12 April, 2019) (my emphasis)


Where all of this will head to now hangs on the choice that the people of Ukraine will make during the second round of the impending presidential election.

As Alexander J. Motyl writes,

"Ukraine's TV president [played by the presidential contender Volodymyr Zelensky (right)] is dangerously pro-Russian.
...
Unforgivable is the absence from [Volodymyr Zelensky's comic] show of Russia or Russian President Vladimir Putin. In its alternate universe, Crimea and Donbass are not occupied. There is no war. There are no deaths. There is no mention of Russian attempts to quash Ukrainian independence since 1991. 
......
 At best, then, a President Zelensky would be prone to serious mistakes in his relations with Putin; at worst, he might be willing to make concessions that would hollow out Ukrainian sovereignty." (Foreign Policy : 1 April, 2019) (my emphasis)

Already Zelensky promises to revive the 'dead horse' of Minsk2.

"In case he wins, Zelenskiy intends to invite the United Kingdom and the United States to participate in the Normandy talks, whilst Putin's old pal Viktor Medvedchuk will lose his role of mediator in negotiations with Russia." (UNIAN : 10 April, 2019) (my emphasis)

At the same time,

"He is also said to be ready for direct talks with Russia with the participation of international partners, while no talks are planned with the "Luhansk People’s Republic" and "Donetsk People’s Republic" militants. (ibid UNIAN)

As I wrote in my last blog entry (7 April, 2019),

"Putin has already succeeded in propelling such a fragile 'ego'-candidate into the White House and, as Oliver Caroll writes,

“Russia sees Zelensky as a new Macron or Trump, a novice to be exploited and played with,” Frolov [the former diplomat and foreign policy expert] believes." (The Independent : 7 April, 2018) (my emphasis)

Like the Maidan revolution of 2014, the people of  Ukraine now stand at a political crossroad.

Whomsoever they choose as their next president, Putin is waiting in the wings to invade Ukraine.

(to be continued)

Putin is having sleepless nights about the Ukrainian presidential elections.

In my last blog entry (28 March, 2019) I wrote that,

"Similarly, William Barr's unprecedented conclusion that Trump did not "obstruct justice" has hit the judicial rails, and may be on the verge of 'exploding in his face'. (MSNBC: 27 March, 2019)

Barr may yet be " ... hoist by his own petard ..." meaning that the bomb-maker i.e exonerating Trump from obstructing justice, may yet be blown up by his own bomb."

In a strange turn of fate, we now have Volodymyr Zelensky (left), Poroshenko’s second-round opponent and the unexpected presidential favourite, similarly " ... hoist by his own petard .."

I refer, of course, to the absurd attempt by Zelensky, to wrong-foot President Poroshenko by calling upon hims to take a drug test before he would debate him.

Poroshenko called Zelensky's bluff (right), and now Zelensky, an actor with roles in many comedies and talk shows, has to step up to the plate to debate a seasoned politician, whom Putin hates, in a stadium packed with thousands of spectators from both camps.

Comedians normally bask in the sunshine of their supporters. They do not perform where they know that half of the audience will ridicule them.

Like Trump, their ego's are just too fragile to confront a large audience that will not shower them with adulation.

Putin has already succeeded in propelling such a fragile 'ego'-candidate into the White House and, as Oliver Caroll writes,

“Russia sees Zelensky as a new Macron or Trump, a novice to be exploited and played with,” Frolov [the former diplomat and foreign policy expert] believes." (The Independent : 7 April, 2018) (my emphasis)

And whilst Zelensky the comedian has failed in wrong-footing President Poroshenko, UNIAN reports that,

"Soldiers with 2nd Brigade Combat Team, 101st Airborne Division (Air Assault) will case their colors and deploy to Ukraine within days. About 150 soldiers will deploy in mid-April, according to a Friday release from the 101st Airborne, and they are expected to be gone for nine months." (UNIAN : 6 April, 2016) (my emphasis)

Added to which,

"Two ships from Standing NATO Maritime Group Two (SNMG2) arrived in Odessa, Ukraine this week for a routine port visit.
...
Since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, NATO has increased its presence in the Black Sea.

Patrols by NATO Maritime Groups increased in 2018 to three patrols for each group for a total of 120 days of NATO Group presence over the year, compared to two patrols for each group and a total of 80 days in 2017, say the Alliance." (George Allison: UK Defence Journal : 5 April 2019) (my emphasis) (my emphasis)

And as reported in a Putin supporting DW documentary, "On the eve of presidential elections in Ukraine, the power struggle on the Sea of Asov is coming to a head. The Sea of Azov borders both Ukraine and Russia". (DW: Youtube : 26 March 2019) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, US Oklahoma Senator Jim Inhofe (left) recently wrote that,

"Additional U.S. sanctions must be on the table to impose direct costs on Putin and his henchmen. We should also work closely with the NATO alliance to enhance our military presence and capabilities in the Black Sea region.
...
Now it’s time to increase funding for the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, as well as the State Department’s security assistance programs. And a larger share of this funding should go to support defensive lethal aid that will make Ukraine a more difficult target for Putin’s aggression." (Politico Magazine: 4 April, 2019) (my emphasis)

On the economic front, Putin is now resorting to 'muzzling' his Statistical Committee so that the Russian people are kept in the dark about just by how much they are paying for Putin's dangerous adventurisms abroad.

As reported by Paul Goble (right),

"The Russian state statistical committee has announced that it will stop publishing monthly figures on the state of Russian incomes, likely because recent months have shown such a precipitous drop in them (finanz.ru/novosti/lichnyye-finansy/rosstat-prekrashchaet-publikaciyu-ezhemesyachnykh-dannykh-po-dokhodam-rossiyan-1028042521)." Window on Eurasia : 1 April, 2019) (my emphasis)

Which raises the question,

"For how long can Putin continue to pull the wool over the eyes of the Russian people about the real cost of his war with Ukraine?"

(to be continued)

Ukraine's Crimea is now becoming an albatross around Putin's neck.

The "Mueller Report", that investigated possible collusion between Trump and Putin during the 2016 US Presidential elections has, according to Trump appointee, William Barr, exonerated Trump and, by implication, Putin.

The victory dance of Trump and Putin may, however, be rather short lived.

As the old saying goes, "It ain't over till the fat lady sings". In other words, " ... one should not presume to know the outcome of an investigation which is still in progress."

It now transpires that, as reported by Rachel Maddow (link: 1 and 2), Mueller's Special Council still has ongoing investigations that may yet prove rather problematic for Trump. (MSNBC : 27 March, 2019) (my emphasis)

Similarly, William Barr's unprecedented conclusion that Trump did not "obstruct justice" has hit the judicial rails, and may be on the verge of 'exploding in his face'. (MSNBC: 27 March, 2019)

Barr may yet be " ... hoist by his own petard ..." meaning that the bomb-maker i.e exonerating Trump from obstructing justice, may yet be blown up by his own bomb.

MSNBC: 27 March, 2019 (position 15:28)

And whilst Putin may still be rubbing his hands together in glee at Barr's exoneration of himself and Trump, Mike Pompeo, Trump's Secretary of State, has recently stated that,

"U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Wednesday (27 March, 2019 position: 4:20:15) he hoped to announce with NATO allies visiting Washington next week additional steps to push back on Russia over its aggression in Ukraine.

 “Next week I am hopeful ... I will be able to announce another series of actions that we will jointly take together,” Pompeo told a House Appropriations Subcommittee hearing on the State Department's budget request for 2020, according to Reuters. He also acknowledged that Washington could have done more to address Moscow’s activity in Ukraine." (UNIAN : 27 March, 2019) (my emphasis)

  Pompeo address to Congress (27 March, 2019)

Pompeo's statements are not all that should concern Putin.

As reported by Shadia Nasralla (left),

"Oil prices were down on Thursday, extending losses into a second consecutive session following a surprise rise in U.S. crude inventories.
...
U.S. crude inventories rose last week by 2.8 million barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations for a decrease of 1.2 million barrels, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said.

Demand concerns on the back of economic jitters linked to the U.S.-Chinese trade war have also capped prices. " (Reuters : 28 March, 2019) (my emphasis)

Adding to which,

"Denmark has decided not to authorize the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in its exclusive economic zone in the Baltic Sea. "Gazprom saw another refusal from Denmark on the Nord Stream 2 route," Naftogaz press service reported via Twitter." (Unian : 27 March, 2019) (my emphasis)

That the completion of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline has been spiked by Denmark simply adds to Russia's continual descend into a critical economic position, a situation against which Putin is defenseless.

As Paul Goble (left) reports,

"Preparing for even greater isolation, Russian powers that be are “now economizing on almost everything and particularly on programs” that are for ordinary Russians, Sergey Shelin (right) says. But they are not reducing spending on security because that is about self-defense or on giant projects, the easiest way to give money to their rich allies." (Window on Eurasia : 26 March, 2019) (my emphasis)

This call by Putin for yet more belt-tightening by the Russian people comes against the backdrop, as Roman Goncharenko (right) writes, that,

"Today, a sense of disappointment and frustration pervades the country [Russia]. And the Kremlin has not yet found a way of boosting approval ratings.
...
There is no more public debate over whether Crimea truly belongs to Ukraine or Russia. Even though back in 2014 most Russians did not really question the annexation of the peninsula, either. Konstantin Gaase says that now, "even the Russian opposition has stopped talking about Crimea." (DW : 15 March, 2019) (my emphasis)

It is therefor no wonder that, as Marc Bennetts reports,

" Putin, rap and Night Wolves: Russia marks 5 years in Crimea. No shortage of flag-waving as Russian president pays a visit, but no celebrations in Moscow this year.
...
[A]nalysts suggest that a rising resentment of the economic costs of the annexation of [Ukraine's] Crimea, as well as of Russia’s military campaign in Syria, is more likely to be behind the Kremlin’s reluctance to hold a triumphant rally near Red Square this year.
......
“During the last year, sociologists began to hear in focus groups that Crimea has cost us too much, and that we generally spend too much on foreign military adventures,” said Yekaterina Schulmann" (Politico : 20 March, 2019) (my emphasis)

Ukraine's Crimea is now becoming an albatross around Putin's neck.
  

(to be continued)