Zelensky will be treading water at Monday's Normandy Format meeting. Will he survive, or will he drown.

Tony Barber reported that,

"In fact, much more will be at stake when the leaders of France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine meet in Paris on December 9 for their first direct talks about the region in more than three years.

The heart of the matter is whether western governments and Russia are in the mood for a lasting accommodation over Ukraine, the pivotal country in Europe’s post-cold war order. Even though the US will be absent from the Paris discussions, Washington knows no less than its allies that stability on the European continent will never be assured as long as Ukraine’s place in this order remains undefined." (Financial Times : 5 December 2019) (my emphasis)

He further reported that,

"The ghost at the Paris talks will be US President Donald Trump’s administration. The presidential impeachment inquiry being conducted by the House of Representatives has shone a light on American policy towards Ukraine. (ibid Tony Barber) (my emphasis)

As a former President Bush Security Advisor, Juan Zarate, states,

"This is the big untold story. How much the Ukrainians are weak and affected not just by the call [July 25] .. not just the question of the controversy ..  but by the ongoing impeachment drama while Zelensky's trying to govern ... while he's trying to build credibility, and while on Monday he's going to face Vladimir Putin in negotiations over what happens next in Ukraine ..." (MSNBC : 6 December 2019) (my emphasis)

"In practice, some western capitals have quietly written off Crimea and do not wish to encourage Ukraine’s hopes of joining Nato and the EU. Rather, they think Ukraine should be satisfied with a status similar to that of Finland during the cold war. It was a democracy, but neutral rather than in the western camp, and careful never to tread on Moscow’s toes." (ibid Tony Barber) (my emphasis)

Step forward Angela Merkel and Emanuelle Macron, two of the central players in the Normandy Format meeting that will be held in France on Monday.

Let us remind ourselves of Angela Merkel's great admiration of that minor German princess that became the Catherine the Great of Russia. 

" ...Catherine the Great (Екатери́на Вели́кая, Yekaterina Velikaya), born Princess Sophie of Anhalt Zerbst, was Empress of Russia from 1762 until 1796, the country's longest-ruling female leader. She came to power following a coup d'état that she organised—resulting in her husband, Peter III, being overthrown." (Wikipedia)

Interestingly,

"... she governed at a time when the Russian Empire was expanding rapidly by conquest and diplomacy. In the south, the Crimean Khanate was crushed following victories over the Ottoman Empire in the Russo-Turkish wars..." (Wikipedia)

And then, of course, we have French President Macron ...

Youtube: 24 May 2018

And amidst all this "mutual admiration society" between Putin and Macron, and Putin and Merkel, UNIAN reports that,

"The armed forces of the Russian Federation and its mercenaries violated the ceasefire 14 times on December 6. Two Ukrainian soldiers were wounded in enemy shelling," (UNIAN: 7 December 2019) (my emphasis)"

 whilst at the same time,

"Only 14.6% of those polled in Ukraine support the idea of granting special status to the self-proclaimed republics – the "Donetsk People's Republic" ("DPR") and the "Luhansk People's Republic" ("LPR") – within the territory of Ukraine." (UNIAN : 6 December 2019) (my emphasis)

The granting of special status to the Putin-controlled area of the Donbas is a KEY demand of Putin, and a demand that Merkel and Macron will also be forcing Zelensky to make.

The 'mythical' "Steinmeier Formula" revolves around this critical concession of granting special status to the Putin-controlled area of the Donbas that has to be made by Zelensky if he is to keep his promise to the Ukrainian electorate that he will end Ukraine's war with Putin in the Donbas.

Zelensky may believe that the mere fact that Putin's attendance at Monday's Normany Format meeting, after years simply dismissing these meetings as somewhat beneath contempt, signals a movement forward in ending Ukraine's war with Putin is a belief that is akin to an alchemist being able to turn base metals into gold.

The 'Trump elephant in the room' at Monday's meeting simply cannot be ignored either.

Zelensky will be treading water at Monday's Normandy Format meeting. Will he survive or will he drown.

(to be continued)

-:STOP PRESS :-

Joel Gehrke (left) reported that,

"NATO allies are warning French President Emmanuel Macron not to “soften” his support for Kyiv days before he hosts a summit focused on resolving the conflict between Russia and Ukraine" (Washington Examiner : 7 December 2019) (my emphasis)

He further reports that,

"Estonian Defense Minister Juri Luik (right) told the Washington Examiner, emphasizing that Macron and Merkel should not try “mediating” between Zelensky and Putin. “I see their role more as facilitators, but also people who guarantee that the international community is present and Putin cannot use his trump cards of, de facto, having conquered parts of Ukraine.” (ibid Joel Gehrke)

Joel Gehrke also reports that Christopher Skaluba, director of the Atlantic Council’s Transatlantic Security Initiative, stated that,

“It's hard not to think that by legitimizing Putin, legitimizing Russia, trying to invite them back into the conversation, that they're somehow not getting a pass for what happened in Crimea, what is currently happening in eastern Ukraine,”
...
“So, I'm sure if you're a Ukrainian official, a Ukrainian citizen, you feel a little bit hung out to dry.”

We now await the outcome of the Dec 9 Normandy Format meeting.

Like Zelensky, steeped in the culture of  TV series productions, French President Macron is steeped in the culture of High Finance since becoming an Inspector in the Finance Ministry of France (2004), and then moving on to become an Investment Banker at the Rothschild & Cie Banque in Paris (2008), before becoming President of France in 2017.

Is it therefore any wonder that, as James Nixey and Mathieu Boulègue report,

"Macron himself is emblematic of a wider tendency in French politics and business – looking to build [Economic and Political] bridges with the Kremlin, regardless of how wide the chasm between them is." (Royal Institute of International Affairs : 5 September 2019) (my emphasis)

They also report that,

".. during the traditional discours aux ambassadeurs on 27 August, Macron went further by effectively excusing Russia from any responsibility for the frozen conflicts around its periphery.
...
The danger is that this French heft translates into policy which in turn translates into the lowering of defences and the sacrificing of allies, such as Ukraine and Georgia.(ibid James Nixey and Mathieu Boulègue)

This is the same Macron who, together with Angela Merkel, has been pushing Zelensky to find an accommodation with Putin so that Putin's war with Ukraine can be ended (with Putin as the victor!) and bring an end to those pesky EU sanctions that are standing in the way of the opening of the floodgates of French economic investment pouring into Putin's failing economy.

Even Trump is pushing Zelensky to get together with Putin " ... to solve their problem ..."

It is no wonder that Zelensky is now feeling trapped.

In a recent interview, and a dig at Trump, he stated that,

“We’re at war”, Volodymyr Zelensky told Time Magazine and three leading European publications in a joint, wide-ranging interview published on Monday morning. “If you’re our strategic partner [the US], then you [Trump] can’t go blocking anything for us.” (Chris Riotta (left): The Independent : 2 December 2019) (my emphasis)

 Riotta goes on to further report that,

"The Ukrainian president [Zelensky] also suggested he was not hopeful that a ceasefire with Russia would occur as the result of scheduled peace talks mediated by France and Germany. He did, however, describe the step as “already a victory” as Russian President Vladimir Putin was expected to attend the talks for the first time since 2016.

“I don’t trust anyone at all”, Mr Zelensky said. “I’ll tell you honestly. Politics is not an exact science … I don’t know these people. I can’t understand what dough they’re made of. That’s why I think nobody can have any trust. Everybody just has their interests." (ibid Riotta) (my emphasis)

It is rather late in the day for Zelensky to realise that, "Politics is not an exact science .... Everybody just has their interests ..."

And yet we have Ukraine’s Deputy Foreign Minister Olena Zerkal categorically stating that the Minsk2 Protocols are no longer the basis for discussion at the upcoming Normandy Format meeting but that the 'mythical' "Steinmeier Formula" has replaced it.

As Florence Schulz reports,

• [Question to Olena Zerkal (right)] In early October the Ukrainian government agreed on the so-called Steinmeier-Formula. It is meant to allow elections to take place in the regions occupied by pro-Russian forces. For a long time, Ukraine had opposed this, asking to be given back control over the regions first. What has changed now?

• [Answer of Olena Zerkal] I think President Zelenskyi has the desire to go down in the history of Ukraine as a peacemaker. And the only solution on the table was the Steinmeier formula, which had already been negotiated by the previous President. Zelenskyi is now continuing this procedure. (Euractiv : 29 November 2019) (my emphasis)

That the Minsk2 Proposals have now been relegated to the dustbin of history, and has now been replaced by the 'mythical' "Steinmeier Formula", is it any surprise that Putin will be attending the 9 December Normandy Format meeting after an absence since 2016? 

Let us remind ourselves that,


"According to Petro Poroshenko, former president of Ukraine,

"Petro Poroshenko, Ukraine's ex-president, MP from European Solidarity faction said that the Steinmeier formula did not exist. He stated this at the Rendez-vous show on Channel 5 on September 21.

"No Steinmeier agreement exists in nature. There is no Steinmeier agreement. There is no Steinmeier formula supposedly agreed with someone," Poroshenko said." (112 UA : 22 September 2019) (my emphasis)" (blog entry: 6 October 2019)

How, then, can Olena Zerkal state that the Steinmeier Formula had been negotiated by Poroshenko when Poroshenko, himself, has stated that, "No Steinmeier agreement exists in nature. There is no Steinmeier agreement. There is no Steinmeier formula supposedly agreed with someone"?

Indeed, Poroshenko goes on to further elucidate that,

"[Poroshenko] I want to tell you, this is the first time I’m telling you about the last meeting in Berlin (12 April 2019) with Putin, Merkel, the French president and your humble servant. 

Putin: When Putin said: we had Steinmeier’s formula written by Lavrov.

Poroshenko:  I say: I'm sorry, there’s a letter from two ministers of Foreign Affairs of France and Germany, where they state that this is Steinmeier’s formula. Please take a look. 

Putin: He, Putin, takes this letter, reads and says: no, it’s not at all what Lavrov wrote on the Steinmeier formula for me. 

Poroshenko: I say: sorry, but Lavrov will write nothing on it. Moreover, Steinmeier himself sits at this table and you can ask him, Mr. Putin. 

Putin: I won’t ask him, you re-advocated him, we will be based on our proposals - this is the style of Russia’s negotiation," Poroshenko told. (ibid 112 UA)

Is Olena Zerkal aware that Sergey Lavrov, that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign Minister of Putin, was actually the author of the so-called "Steinmeier formula"?

After six months in office Zelensky is being brutally honest when he states that, "I don’t know these people. [the Heads of State that he now has to deal with] I can’t understand what dough they’re made of. That’s why I think nobody can have any trust"



As the late Harold Wilson remarked,

"A week is a long time in politics ..."



We now await the outcome of the Dec 9 Normandy Format meeting.

(to be continued)

Will Zelensky be able to stand up for Ukraine against Putin, Macron, and Merkel?

Mark Twain popularized the phrase, " .. lies, damned lies, and statistics" though its origin is rather difficult to trace, as was discovered by a member of the Department of Mathematics at York University.

Wikipedia gives a rather concise summary of the meaning of this phrase.

"Lies, damned lies, and statistics" is a phrase describing the persuasive power of numbers, particularly the use of statistics to bolster weak arguments."

Now whilst sceptical about the underlying assumptions of the art of mathematical 'statistical' analyses it is interesting, nonetheless, to note that,

(Erik C. Nisbet & Olga Kamenchuk: Quartz : 24 November 2019)

Taking these results at their 'face value' it would seem that 44% of the respondents indicated that Zelensky should take something of a strong stand against Trump trying to shake him down like some Mafia boss.

Zelensky's office has, however,

"... denied a request from a political rival to release its records of a July 25 call between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and U.S. President Donald Trump – a call that in the United States is at the heart of the impeachment inquiry." (Pamela Falk :CBS News : 21 November 2019) (my emphasis)

Indeed, as reported by Caitlin Oprysko,

“I think everybody in Ukraine is so tired about Burisma,” Zelensky responded in an exasperated tone. “We have our own country. We have our independence, we have our problems and questions. That's it."

Zelensky did not respond to further prodding by the reporter, rolling his eyes as aides whisked him away." (Politico: 19 November 2019) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile, as reported by Natalia Zinets,

“The IMF staff team had constructive and productive discussions with the Ukrainian authorities and commended them on the considerable progress made during the last few months in advancing reforms and continuing with sound economic policies,” it said in a statement. (Reuters : 23 November 2019) (my emphasis)

Note that these were "constructive and productive discussions", notwithstanding the fact that, as I wrote in my previous blog (14/11/2019),

"As reported by Anton Troianovski (left),

"Mr. Kolomoisky, widely seen as Ukraine’s most powerful figure outside government, given his role as the patron of the recently elected President Volodymyr Zelensky, has experienced a remarkable change of heart: It is time, he said, for Ukraine to give up on the West and turn back toward Russia.

“They’re stronger anyway. We have to improve our relations,” he said, comparing Russia’s power to that of Ukraine. “People want peace, a good life, they don’t want to be at war. And you” — America — “are forcing us to be at war, and not even giving us the money for it.” (New York Times : 13 November 2019) (my emphasis)

Maybe this Kolomoisky "change of heart" has something to do with the fact that, as Ian Talley (right) reported,

"The International Monetary Fund has put off a bailout for Ukraine because it is worried the country’s president won’t recoup billions of dollars allegedly looted from banks—including one once controlled by a close supporter [Ihor Kolomoisky]—according to people familiar with the negotiations.

 ...

The IMF told President Volodymyr Zelensky he must aggressively pursue the missing money to deliver on his vow to clean up a financial system sapped by fraud, money laundering and theft." (Washington Post : 31 October 2019) (my emphasis)"

So are we to now surmise that, given those "constructive and productive discussions" Zelensky's team had with the IMF that a rift between  Kolomoisky and Zelensky is beginning to develop?

Will the Zelensky team "throw Kolomoisky under the bus", so to speak, to obtain the much needed IMF "fund to replace a $3.9 billion stand-by arrangement that expires in January." (ibid Natalia Zinets)

This is Zelensky's "Kennedy moment" when, in 1962, US President John Kennedy boldly confronted Nikita Khrushchev during a 13-day (October 16–28, 1962) confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union initiated by the American discovery of Soviet ballistic missile deployment in Cuba. (Wikipedia)

In this case we do not have missiles but the recouping of $billions looted by Zelensky's patron, Kolomoisky, from his own Privat Bank.... from the people of Ukraine.

But there is yet another "Kennedy moment" looming ahead for Zelensky.

I refer, of course, to the upcoming December Normandy Format meeting between Putin, Macron, Merkel, and Zelensky.

As reported by Expatica,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet his Ukranian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky in Paris on December 9 for their first face-to-face encounter, seeking to end the half-decade conflict in Ukraine, the French presidency said Friday."

The leaders will join French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel for the four-way summit aimed at resolving the conflict in the east of Ukraine, where pro-Moscow separatists have declared breakaway regions, the Elysee Palace said. (Expatica : 21 November 2019) (my emphasis)

Notwithstanding the facts that,

"Ukraine's navy says that the three ships captured by Russia almost a year ago and released on November 19 have been returned in very poor condition and are not able to make it back to port under their own power.

"They cannot sail on their own. The Russians ruined them -- even took lamps, power outlets, and toilets. We will show the whole world the Russian barbarism towards them," Voronchenko said. (RFERL : 20 November 2019) (my emphasis)"

and the facts that,

• "Russia's hybrid military forces on Sunday mounted seven attacks on Ukrainian positions in Donbas, eastern Ukraine.(UNIAN: 24 November 2019)

• Russia-led forces in Donbas, eastern Ukraine, used proscribed weapons to attack Ukrainian troops on Saturday, November 23.(UNIAN: 23 November 2019),

will Zelensky 'cave in' to Putin at the December Normandy Format meeting, as Merkel and Macron so desperately desire?

 

Merkel's and Macron's primary agenda is the lifting of EU sanctions against Putin so that German and French businessmen can, once again, suck at the teats of the Russian cow. 

Will Zelensky be able to stand up for Ukraine against Putin, Macron, and Merkel?

(to be continued)