Is Putin actually afraid of starting a war with Ukraine?

Whilst Emmanuel Macron meets with Putin in Moscow, over in the US, President Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, have thrown down the gauntlet to Putin.

As reported in the Independent,

"On his first trip to the White House as German Chancellor, Mr Scholz said Berlin and Washington “will be united” in their response to an incursion by Moscow, after the US president warned they would bring the £8.3bn [Nord Stream2] project “to an end” if Russian troops cross the Ukrainian border." (The Independent : 7 February 2020) (my emphasis)

 

 

Meanwhile, back in Moscow, Macron and Putin have thrown down the gauntlet to Biden and Scholz by emphasising that they had found points of "convergence" regarding the "security of Europe".

 

As reported by CNN,

 

"Macron said that he and Putin were able to find "points of convergence" over the crisis and that it was "up to us to agree, jointly, concrete and specific measures to stabilize the situation and to de-escalate tensions."
...
Putin, who had sharply critical words for NATO and Ukraine, suggested "further steps" were possible on the diplomatic front.
...
Despite the diplomatic overtures, Putin accused Ukraine of violating the rights of its Russian-speaking population .... (CNN : 8 February 2022) (my emphasis)

 

 

Similarly, as reported by France24,

"Putin said that a number of Macron’s ideas concerning security were realistic and that the two would talk again once Macron had travelled to Kyiv to meet Ukraine’s leadership." (France24 :7 February 2022) (my emphasis)

 

As also reported by Reuters on January 19 2022,

"French President Emmanuel Macron called on fellow members of the European Union on Wednesday to work together to draw up proposals for a new security deal with Russia in the coming weeks involving a "frank dialogue" with Moscow.

Speaking amid growing worries over a Russian military build-up at Ukraine's borders, Macron did not spell out what the "new stability and security order" he is seeking could entail, but said it must ensure Europe defends its interests.

"We will make sure that Europe makes its unique and strong voice heard," he told the European Parliament as he laid out France's priorities for its sixth-month EU presidency." (Reuters : 19 January 2022) (my emphasis)

These EU security proposals of Macron were first proposed by Macron in 2020, who envisaged an EU Defence Policy that would be parallel to the NATO security policy of Europe. 

Now as reported by Patrick Wintour  in 2020, Macron said that,

"Europe’s middle classes will only remain reconciled to the European Union if it becomes more integrated, with an effective defence policy, a larger budget and integrated capital markets" (The Guardian : 15 February 2020) (my emphasis)

At this time, when Angela Merkel was still Chancellor of Germany,

"Macron was speaking after two leading German politicians affirmed Germany needed to do more to respond to Macron’s offer of dialogue.

The [then] German foreign minister, Heiko Maas (right), said: “Germany is ready to get more involved, including militarily.” He called for the “construction of a European security and defence union as a strong, European pillar of Nato”. (ibid Patrick Wintour)

Of critical relevance to Macron's proposals for an 'independent' EU security policy is the implementation of the Minsk2 protocols (cf: Wikipedia).

These protocols, that were,

" ...brokered by Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany and President François Hollande of France, took place in Minsk. These produced a ‘package of measures for the implementation of the Minsk agreements’ (‘Minsk-2’). This document, signed on 12 February 2015 by representatives from the OSCE, Russia, Ukraine, the DNR and LNR, has been the framework for subsequent attempts to end the war." (Duncan Allen : Chatham House : 22 May 2020) (my emphasis)

Since 2015, however, Minsk2 has been largely ignored by Putin. 

As Duncan Allen explains,

 

"... Minsk-2 supports mutually exclusive views of sovereignty: either Ukraine is sovereign (Ukraine’s interpretation), or it is not (Russia’s interpretation) – this is the ‘Minsk conundrum’. (ibid )

And yet ... and yet ...

At their press conference yesterday, BOTH Macron and Putin re-emphasised the implementation of Minsk2 to avoid Putin's second invasion of Ukraine, with Putin indirectly stressing that Ukraine is NOT a sovereign country as evidenced by his reiteration that his proxies in Ukraine's Donbas MUST be fully consulted about the future of Donbas.

 

France24 : 7 February 2022

Even more disconcerting, Putin reasserted that Ukraine's Crimea is no longer part of Ukraine since he illegally invaded and annexed it into the Russian Federation in 2014!.

The political 'backslapping' between them at yesterday's press conference was nothing more nor less than a public display of the "Putin-Macron mutual admiration society".

Putin is seemingly digging in his heels over continuing to threaten his second invasion of Ukraine and, as one of Putin's proxies in Ukraine's Donbas recently stated,

"Denis Pushilin (left), [Putin's proxy] head of the breakaway Donetsk People's Republic, said there was a high likelihood of a war that would bring huge casualties, although it would be "madness" to embrace such a conflict.

"First of all we rely on ourselves, but we do not rule out that we will be forced to turn to Russia if Ukraine, with the support of Western countries, passes a certain line," he told Reuters in an interview in his fortified office." (Anton Zverev: (MSN) Reuters:7 February 2022) (my emphasis)

There may, however, be other reasons why Putin is threatening to invade Ukraine and, in the process, engulfing Europe in the conflagration that will follow.

As reported by Sky News,

"Exiled Russian oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky claims Vladimir Putin is 'afraid of starting a war with Ukraine'

....
"At present the opposition in Russia has been reduced to a bare minimum - by way of arrests, pressure on their families etc."But it also means that opposition sentiments have gone deeper underground. This means that Putin doesn't really know what society's reaction is going to be to this or that action.
 

"It is one of the reasons why he is in fact afraid of starting a war with Ukraine.
...

"He is not confident that Russian society would support such a war - and I'm sure that Russian people will not support it. (cf: Niko Vorobyov: Aljazeera: 3 February 2022)

...
"This is a serious challenge for Putin - it is something that he is afraid of tackling.
 

And [Khodorkovsky] warned that if in the past Mr Putin might have been a man who would listen to others, or exercise some caution, "this has changed".

He added: "He is convinced of his own infallibility, and he is capable of all sorts of actions, including ill-judged ones." (Sky News : 6 February 2022) (my emphasis)

Sky News : 6 Feb 2022

 So is Putin actually afraid of starting a war with Ukraine?

 (to be continued)

Putin is now at the edge of lashing out dangerously

Let us recall that in my blog entry (11 August 2016) I wrote that,

"As inevitably as the sun will rise to-morrow morning, Putin is repeating his pretext for escalating the war between Russia and Ukraine that he did when he was head of the FSB in 1999, and oversaw the Moscow apartment bombings that he used as a causus belli to start his war with Chechnya.

Let us for a moment remind ourselves that those 1999 apartment bombings in Moscow led to the deaths of 293, and injured more than 1000 people, whilst at the same time spreading a wave of fear across the country. (cf Wikipedia)

There is enough evidence that exposes the fact that these bombings were staged by the then FSB under Putin. (cf Wikipedia)

This is best illustrated by the failed Ryazan bombing attempt by the FSB.

Ryazan 1999 : Part1 and Part2

And now (2016) we have Putin attempting to use the very same FSB tactic to provoke a full scale war with Ukraine. " (blog : 11 August 2016)  (Full Video : Youtube 23 April 2013)

Fast forward to 2022 and Julian Borger, Shaun Walker, and Dan Sabbagh report that,

"US officials claim they have evidence of a Russian plan to make a “very graphic” fake video of a Ukrainian attack as a pretext for an invasion.

The alleged plot would involve using corpses, footage of blown-up buildings, fake Ukrainian military hardware, Turkish-made drones and actors playing the part of Russian-speaking mourners.
.....
The Pentagon spokesman, John Kirby, said the video would have purported to show a Ukrainian attack on Russian territory or Russian-speaking people in eastern Ukraine and would be “very graphic”. He added that the US believed that the plan had the backing of the Kremlin." (The Guardian : 3 February 2020) (my emphasis) (cf also : Aljazeera : BBC News : Financial Times : Reuters :  amongst others)  

MSNBC : 3 February 2020

It cannot be a coincidence that Putin's modus operandi in 1999 to stoke up Russian hysteria against the Chechen people comes straight out of the playbook of 'maskirovka' (Wikipedia), the Russian doctrine that covers a broad range of measures for military deception, from camouflage to denial and deception.

When viewed against the evidence of the FSB-orchestrated plan to blow up Russian citizens in Ryazan in 1999,  the reports of many (cf. Aljazeera : BBC News : Financial Times : Reuters) that Putin is possibly planning to make a “very graphic” fake video of a Ukrainian attack as a pretext for his 2nd invasion of Ukraine is not so far fetched as it may seem.

Just as in 1999, when the people of Ryazan did not fall for the crude and deceptive explanations about the attempted bombing planned by Putin's FSB, today there is the small beginning of an anti-war movement in Saint Petersburg (formerly Leningrad).

As reported by Niko Vorobyov (left),

"In Russia, where protests are tightly restricted, a small anti-war movement is growing as the Ukraine crisis rumbles on.
....
On Sunday, more than 100 prominent Russian activists, authors and academics signed an an open letter decrying the “party of war in the Russian leadership” and state media.
....
“Russia does not need war with Ukraine or the West,” the letter concludes. “No-one is threatening us, and no-one will attack us. Politics founded on the advancement of the idea of such a war is amoral, irresponsible, and criminal, and cannot be carried on in the name of the Russian people.” (Aljazeera : 3 February 2022) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, as Jake Cordell (right) reports, Russian economic experts are warning that,

“Russia’s increasingly assertive foreign policy represents a potential double setback for the economy by risking the imposition of additional sanctions while further neglecting long-standing socio-economic problems,” said Scope Ratings analyst Levon Kameryan in a research note published Thursday.
.....
Central to those socio-economic problems is the living standards crisis that has beset the Russian economy in recent years. (Moscow Times : 21 January 2022) (my emphasis)

As the domestic economic problems of the Russian people continues to exact a heavy burden on their everyday lives, and Putin continues to paint himself into an ever tightening political corner, the eyes of the international community will turn towards those Russian 'siloviki' and kleptomaniac oligarchs who live under Putin's "krisha" or, as Howard Witt explains,

"As casually as business executives in Chicago might talk about the cost of fire insurance, businesspeople in Russia trade stories about the cost of their krisha or "roof," referring to mobsters extorting monthly protection payments." (Chicago Tribune : 24 November 1996) (my emphasis)

Is the 'cost' of Putin's 'krisha' now becoming potentially too high for his 'siloviki' and kleptomaniac oligarchs?

Is Putin now at the edge of lashing out dangerously?

(to be continued)

The past is now catching up with Germany

In the early 1990's, when Putin was an official in the St. Petersburg mayoral office of Anatoly Sobchak (left: Putin and Sobchack), a deal was struck between Putin and German businessmen and banks that,

"...involved the export of $100m worth of raw materials in
exchange for food for the citizens of St Petersburg. The materials were exported, but the food never arrived, as Marine Salye (bottom right), who was put in charge of a city council investigation into the deal, and who fastidiously kept the documents from that time, identified Putin's fingerprints all over it. This deal opened the floodgates for German businessmen to "co-operate in a spirit of mutual goodwill in meeting the economic needs of both countries". (cf. blog entry 7 November 2014) (cf. also: Maeve McClenaghan : Bureau of Investigative Journalism : 19 April 2012)

At the time of this deal Helmut Kohl (German CDU Leader) was then Chancellor of Germany and, in retrospect, this criminal deal of Putin served as the 'seed corn' that financed Putin's rise,

" ... through the ranks and being elected president in 2000, after serving in the role for several months following the resignation of Boris Yeltsin." (ibid Maeve McClenaghan) (my emphasis)

Fast forward to 2022 and, as Guy Chazan and Max Seddon (left) write,

"German officials say that the government is playing an important role in keeping diplomatic channels open with Russia. But critics say Berlin has failed to grasp the enormity of the threat Russia poses to Ukraine. They worry that Germany, which draws 55 per cent of its imported gas from Russia, cares more about the impact sanctions will have on its economy than about forming a united front against Moscow. Some Nato countries have even begun to doubt that Berlin is a reliable partner. (Financial Times : 31 January 2022) (my emphasis) 

DW News: 31 January 2022

They further write that,

"Nord Stream 2 epitomises the dilemma Germany faces. Its industry is hugely reliant on Russian gas, and will become even more so as the country phases out nuclear power and coal. “For years we have had a close mutual dependence,” says Markus Krebber, chief executive of German energy firm RWE. “We need Russian natural gas, and Russia needs foreign currency. We had tensions in the past, but the gas always came.”" (ibid Guy Chazan and Max Seddon) (my emphasis)

This dangerously 'blinkered' view of the 'Markus Krebbers' of Germany's political and business elites has also opened up the 'can of worms' of Germany's recent historical past. 

As  Guy Chazan and Max Seddon write,

"The arms issue also goes right to the heart of German guilt about the second world war. The prospect that Russian soldiers might again be killed by weapons from Germany is one many in Berlin view with horror.

But the argument about Germany’s war guilt enrages Ukrainians. They counter that it was Ukraine that bore the brunt of Wehrmacht and SS atrocities between 1941-44, suffering far more civilian casualties than Russia, and so has a much greater claim on German sympathy." (ibid Chazan and Seddon) (my emphasis) (below: German Death Squads in Ukraine during WW2)

Meanwhile, as reported by Al Jazeera,

"The United States and Russia have sparred over the Ukraine crisis at the UN Security Council, with Washington warning of a “horrific” war should Moscow decide to invade its neighbour and Russian diplomats playing down the threat of military conflict.

US ambassador to the United Nations, Linda Thomas-Greenfield (left), told the council during a special open session on Monday that a Russian invasion of Ukraine would threaten global security." (Al Jazeera : 31 mJanuary 2022) (my emphasis) 

Youtube : DW News: 1 February 2022

As Putin threatens the global security of the world, and German politicians twist themselves into 'political pretzels' trying to justify themselves for not sending defensive weaponry to Ukraine, the fallout for Germany is that their past war against the Ukrainian people is now fast catching up with them.

(to be continued)

Irish fishermen, unlike Germany, are willing to confront Putin head on.

BBC News has just reported that,

"US President Joe Biden has warned there is a "distinct possibility" Russia might invade Ukraine next month, the White House says.
....
The US president made the comments in a telephone conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Thursday.
....

"President Biden said that there is a distinct possibility that the Russians could invade Ukraine in February," White House National Security Council spokesperson Emily Horne said." (BBC News :28 January 2022) (my emphasis)

A leading article in the Economist now warns that,

"A war in Ukraine could have global consequences
...
Human suffering, economic shock and a geopolitical realignment
....
No one can be sure of Mr Putin’s intentions. Even his own foreign minister seems to be kept guessing. But, if fighting is about to break out, the world needs to understand the stakes. (The Economist : 29 January 2022) (my emphasis)

Similarly,  Anthony Faiola (left) of the Washington Post writes that,

"An invasion of Ukraine could drive up global food prices and spark unrest far from the front lines.
....
Should peace not prevail, western-gazing Ukrainians would pay the highest price. But in a worst-case scenario, the cost of a major Russian invasion of Ukraine — one of the world’s largest grain exporters — could ripple across the globe, driving up already surging food prices and increasing the risk of social unrest well beyond Eastern Europe." (MSN (Washington Post) : 28 January 2022) (my emphasis)

Already this "unrest far from Ukraine" is taking place.

As reported by Simon Carswell,

"Irish fishing boats are planning to peacefully disrupt plans by the Russian navy to conduct military exercises off the coast of Cork next month.

Patrick Murphy, chief executive of the Irish South and West Fish Producers Organisation said that the area was very important for fishing and that they wanted to protect biodiversity and marine life." (The Irish Times : 25 January 2022) (my emphasis)

 As also reported by Rachel Maddow, a spokesperson of the Russian embassy in Ireland warned that,

"Any attempts to interfere with military exrcises would be [a] reckless and irresponsible act which could put in harms way both sailors and fishermen " (MSNBC : 28 January 2022)

Even more disconcerting, as reported by David Averre (right),

"An undersea fiberoptic cable which provides vital internet connection and communications links between mainland Norway and the Svalbard archipelago in the Arctic Ocean has mysteriously been put out of action.

The outage on the subsea communications cable, which is the northern most cable of its kind in the world, occurred on January 7 but was only revealed to the public yesterday by Space Norway, who owns and maintains the technology.  
....
Should the second cable fail before repairs are made, Svalbard's citizens and SvalSat will be effectively cut off from Norway.

It comes as Britain's newly appointed chief of the defence staff, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, warned that Russia may look to cripple such vital undersea communications wires supporting the UK." (Mail Online : 11 January 2022) (my emphasis) ( video: Rachel Maddow: MSNBC : 26 Jan 2022)

And against this backdrop of a war in Ukraine having global consequences , finally the real reasons underpinning Germany's adamant position in not supplying Ukraine with arms to defend itself against Putin's army has been internationally brought to light.

As reported by DW,

"Jessica Berlin (left), expert on security policy and geopolitics. She says: "Germany can no longer prioritize its economic interests over its international obligations." (DW : 27 January 2022) (my emphasis) (full video : DW : 27 Jan 2022)

Irish fishermen, unlike Germany, are willing to confront Putin head on.

(to be continued)

The "Putinversteher" mentality of Germany's political and economic elite towards Ukraine

 

The political world now anxiously waits as the frenzied diplomacy of the West continues to push against Putin's war manouvres that threatens to engulf Europe, and critical countries beyond Europe, in a conflagration that is simply unthinkable.

Putin is not only holding a gun to the head of Ukraine, he is also holding a gun to the universal law that the current borders of each country in the world is inviolable. 

No matter how you slice or dice it, this international law was trampled upon by Putin in 2014 when he invaded, and subsequently annexed into the Russian Federation, Ukraine's Crimea.

In the words of Professor John Blaxland (Australian National University) (right),

" A lot of grumblings amongst some of his erstwhile supporters who are starting to worry about him [Putin] maybe losing the plot here ...(Full Video: Youtube 24 January 2022) 

And yet ..... And yet .....

As reported by Patrick Wintour (left),

"Can the western alliance against Russia over its buildup of troops on the Ukrainian border hold together? It is a question that politicians and diplomats are increasingly grappling with amid fears that Germany and, to a lesser extent, France are in danger of dividing from the US and the UK, not only over how to respond to any future Russian act of aggression in Ukraine, but also in their assessment of the imminence of the threat. (The Guardian : Wednesday 26 January 2022) (my emphasis)

Now Germany is adamant that it will NOT supply Ukraine with defensive weaponry against the might of Putin's army which is waiting to ONCE AGAIN violate the borders of Ukraine.

This is the same Germany who,

"Germany is the world’s fourth largest exporter of weapons, selling state-of-the-art arms worth billions of dollars to countries with questionable human rights records such as Qatar and Saudi Arabia without batting an eye.

Yet Nato’s second largest country has turned a deaf ear to increasingly urgent requests from Ukraine for defensive weapons even though most other nations in the north Atlantic alliance are rushing material to the threatened eastern Europe country, which is braced for a possible attack from its powerful neighbour Russia. 

There is bewilderment – and criticism – from Ukraine and its allies over Germany’s stance to requests from Kiev for arms, but Berlin is standing firm, reports Erik Kirschbaum" (Erik Kirschbaum (right): The Independent : 26 January 2022) (my emphasis)

What, therefore, can we expect from Germany (... and France) when Putin unleashes his 'dogs of war'.

As further reported by Patrick Wintour,

"Although Merkel’s response to the invasion of Ukraine in 2014 was firm, Steinmeier (left), sure that the SPD understood Russia better than Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union party, went to Moscow and proposed an economic partnership with Russia. At the same time, three former chancellors of Germany – Helmut Schmidt, Gerhard Schröder and Helmut Kohl – all warned Merkel not to isolate Moscow. Within a week of the invasion, the chief executive of Siemens was in Moscow. As the diplomatic situation worsened, a group of senior German former officials and politicians sent an emotional letter calling for a return to the policy of detente." (ibid Patrick Wintour)

I am somewhat reminded of that ABBA song, "Money Money Money", which rather aptly sums up the Putin-German foundation upon which Germany's current political stance against supplying Ukraine with defensive weapons against Putin's threatening army on its borders is based.

The "Putinversteher" mentality of Germany's political and economic elite is now encouraging Putin to unleash his "Dogs of War" against Ukraine.

(to be continued)

Germany's "Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact" over Ukraine in 2022

As reported by Sky News,

" ... Russia's defence minister has accepted an invitation to meet his UK counterpart Ben Wallace amid fears that an invasion of Ukraine is "imminent".

The British defence secretary offered earlier this week to hold talks with Sergei Shoigu in London to discuss mutual security concerns, against heightened tensions with the Kremlin over its former Soviet neighbour But given the last bilateral defence talks between the two countries took place in London, Mr Shoigu has agreed to meet in Moscow instead." (Sky News : 22 January 2022) (my emphasis).

What is interesting about this proposed meeting is that it almost obviously has the blessing of Putin.

Now recall that in my blog entry (19/01/2022) I wrote that,

 

" .... we now have the German Foreign Minister, Annalena Baerbock (right), 

 

" ..[insisting that] her country would stick to its ban on German weapons exports on a visit to Kiev this week.  “Our stance is not only well known, but historically well founded,” Ms Baerbock said.

But she has not commented on whether the new German government plans to continue Mrs Merkel’s policy of obstructing its allies from arming Ukraine." (Dominic Nicholls, Danielle Sheridan, Nataliya Vasilyeva, Justin Huggler : Daily Telegraph : 18 January 2022) (my emphasis)"

The mask has now fallen from this argument of German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and revealed the true "historically well founded" German reason for not supplying Ukraine with arms to defend itself against Putin.

Step forward Kay-Achim Schönbach (left), the head of the German navy.

BBC News now reports that,

"The head of the German navy has resigned over controversial comments he made over Ukraine.
...
He made the comments while speaking at a think-tank discussion in India on Friday and the video was later published to social media. (Youtube : 21 January 2022 : pos: 1:04)

In the video, Mr Schönbach said Putin needed to be treated as an equal by the west.

"It is easy to give him the respect he really demands - and also probably deserves," he said.

He added that the Crimean peninsula, which Russia annexed in 2014, "is gone and will never come back". (BBC News : 23 January 2022) (my emphasis)

One should NOT be surprised at the revealing comments of Germany's Head of Navy.

As the Economist wrote in 2014, the year when Putin illegally annexed Crimea and sent his troops into the Donbas region of Ukraine,

"WHEN Germans add the word Versteher (one who understands) to a term, they generally mix flattery with irony. So a Frauenversteher (one who understands women) is usually a man who boasts excessively about his knowledge of the opposite sex. The label is now being attached to so-called Russlandversteher or Putinversteher: members of the elite or intelligentsia who gush with empathy for Russia and its president, Vladimir Putin, on talk shows, in journals and at dinner parties.

They include two former Social Democratic chancellors. In the newspaper Die Zeit, Helmut Schmidt said Mr Putin’s annexation of Crimea was not quite “legitimate” but certainly “understandable”. Gerhard Schröder went further and threw himself into Mr Putin’s hug (left) at a party in St Petersburg in late April (ostensibly to mark Mr Schröder’s 70th birthday). (The Economist : 8 May 2014) (my emphasis)

Kay-Achim Schönbach, the head of the German navy, is certainly a "Putinversteher" as defined above. 

But what about German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock? Has she also exposed herself as a "Putinversteher"? 

Both "Putinversteher" Kay-Achim Schönbach and Annalena Baerbock need a history lesson about Ukraine from US Secretary of State, John Blinken, before tacitly agreeing with the sentiments of former German Chancellors, including Angela Merkel, that Putin's illegal invasion and annexation of Crimea is "certainly understandable" . (cf: Matthew Chance and Laura Smith-Spark : CNN : 22 January 2022) (my emphasis)

As reported by Euronews (with AFP),

"Ukraine's foreign minister (left) has accused Germany of undermining unity among the country's allies and of "encouraging" Vladimir Putin by refusing to deliver arms to Kyiv.
....
"Today, the unity of the West with Russia is more important than ever. To achieve it and deter the Russian Federation, we are all working together," Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba responded via Twitter.
....
"German partners must stop such words and actions to undermine unity and encourage Vladimir Putin to a new attack on Ukraine." (Euronews : 23 January 2022) (my emphasis)

The question now is, "Is Germany resuscitating an equivalent of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact" of 1939 between Germany and Stalin's Russia over Ukraine in 2022?

(to be continued)

For US President Biden there are NO deals to be made over the inviolability of Ukraine's (incl: Crimea!) borders!

Finally the diplomatic 'tip-toeing' around Putin has ended.

Putin and his 'siloviki' are finally getting the message that 'ALL BETS ARE OFF' if he invades Ukraine for the SECOND time.

Speaking in June of 2021, the then arrogant statements of Putin's mouthpiece,  Dmitry Peskov, that,

"The Kremlin said Monday that despite over 90 U.S. sanctions against Russia throughout history, the political instrument is ineffective and fails to reach its end goal.
...
Peskov said that "sanctions do not help achieve anything, this is not an instrument that works with Russia." (Xinhua News: Thursday, January  20, 2022) (my emphasis)

has now caught up with him.

Suddenly The Moscow Times is now reporting that,

"The United States’ plans to levy sanctions against Russian President Vladimir Putin would be an “extreme” step that would signify a complete breakdown in ties between the two countries, the Kremlin said Thursday.

U.S. senators, with support from the White House, unveiled a package of hard-hitting sanctions Wednesday evening intended to “devastate” the Russian economy should Moscow invade Ukraine.

Among the measures would be personal sanctions against Putin, as well as several other top officials including Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. (left)" (Moscow Times : 13 January 2022) (my emphasis)

As reported by Dominic Waghorn,

"US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has warned Russia that the world is watching as Moscow continues military manoeuvres involving 100,000 troops on the border with Ukraine.
......
The US is sending further military materiel to Ukraine and will supply more if Russia invades as well as bolstering forces in Ukraine's neighbours. The secretary of state also warned Ukraine to stand firm and united against Russian efforts to divide them." (Sky News : 19 January 2022) (my emphasis)

US President Biden is also firm in his stand against Putin.  

As reported by BBC News,

"[US President Biden] .. told a news conference Mr Putin would pay a "serious and dear price" for invading, but indicated a minor incursion might be treated differently.

The White House later stressed any Russian military move would be met with a swift, severe response from the West. (BBC News : 20 Januaery 2022) (my emphasis)

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken's current flurry of diplomatic meetings with the EU has also resulted in putting those members of the EU, who are still dragging their feet over 'tough' sanctions against Putin and his clique, into a situation where they simply have to either side with Putin or with Ukraine.

 As reported by Matthew Lee and Frank Jordans,

"In his speech to the Berlin-Brandenburg Academy of Sciences, Blinken will elaborate on the American position on Ukraine, the broader historical context of the current crisis, and the need for allies to present a unified front to confront Russia’s aggression and violations of international norms, U.S. officials said. They spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to publicly preview Blinken’s speech." ( AP : 20 January 2022) (my emphasis)

As the pressure against Putin mounts, suddenly he is now calling for a call with President Biden.

As reported by Olga Pavlova,

"Russia would welcome another conversation between President Vladimir Putin and his US counterpart Joe Biden, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in a call with journalists on Thursday.

The two presidents last spoke on December 31, the second time in a month that they had attempted to defuse the situation in Ukraine, where Russia has amassed 100,000 troops along the border.

"We also do not rule out another communication between the two presidents. We believe that in any case, such communication can only be welcomed, it is useful for both states," Peskov said." (CNN : 20 January 2022) (my emphasis)

US President Biden should not fall for this ploy of Putin.

Putin knows what US President Biden's position is regarding any attempt by Putin's to invade Ukraine for a second time.

For US President Biden there are NO deals to be made over the inviolability of Ukraine's borders, including Crimea!

 (to be continued)

The stance of Germany has given Putin the "green light" to invade Ukraine.

Just as I commented in my post of (9/1/2022) that,

 

"Again do I wish to draw the attention of my readers to the Treaty of Rapallo signed between Germany and Russia in 1922 At that  time, "Germany and Russia were rapidly moving closer together because each could use what the other had to offer. Russia needed Germany's skilled, now idle industrial workers, its engineers, and  general knowledge of advanced industrial methods. For Germany, Russia provided an outlet for its energies, a market for its products, and a source of raw materials" (Wikipedia) (my emphasis)",

 

we now have the German Foreign Minister, Annalena Baerbock (right), 

 

" ..[insisting that] her country would stick to its ban on German weapons exports on a visit to Kiev this week.  “Our stance is not only well known, but historically well founded,” Ms Baerbock said.

But she has not commented on whether the new German government plans to continue Mrs Merkel’s policy of obstructing its allies from arming Ukraine." (Dominic Nicholls, Danielle Sheridan, Nataliya Vasilyeva, Justin Huggler : Daily Telegraph : 18 January 2022) (my emphasis)

It is for this reason that UK supplies of Defence Military aid to Ukraine DID NOT FLY OVER GERMAN AIRSPACE!

"Speculation grew on Tuesday that British C-17 aircrafts  carrying weapons to Ukraine had taken detours in order to  avoid flying over German airspace.

 

The military flights to Ukraine over the weekend, tracked by commercial radar, showed the C-17s bypassing German  airspace, opting instead for a longer route over Denmark and Poland.

The route, which saw the aircraft fly over Denmark and Poland rather than take a more direct path, has led to speculation that Germany may have reservations about the military support to Ukraine." (ibid Dominic Nicholls, Danielle Sheridan, Nataliya Vasilyeva, Justin Huggler )

As also reported by Sahil Kapur, Veronika Melkozerova and Reuters,

"A bipartisan group of U.S. senators travelled to Ukraine to meet with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and other officials on a trip to show solidarity amid fears of Russian aggression.

"We believe that this is a crucial time for us to come," Sen. Rob Portman, R-Ohio, a member of the Foreign Relations Committee, told reporters between meetings. "To Russia: We stand with the Ukrainian people and with this government. In fact, Congress recently passed an increase to $300 million in security funding to Ukraine in the National Defense Authorization Act." (NBC News : 17 January 2022) (my emphasis)

 

We should also be reminded that,

"While Germany has publicly pledged its support for Ukraine against any Russian aggression, it has ruled out allowing its own defence sector to export weapons to Kiev over fears it could “inflame” the situation.

Angela Merkel’s government twice intervened to veto the delivery of weapons Ukraine had already paid for, including a US shipment of rifles and anti-drone systems from Lithuania." (ibid Dominic Nicholls, Danielle Sheridan, Nataliya Vasilyeva, Justin Huggler )

Even more significantly,

"The German government has briefed that threats to exclude Russia from the Swift system are to be dropped over fears it could destabilise international markets, according to Handelsblatt newspaper.
 

But the US pushed back against the claim, insisting “no option is off the table” in the event of Russian aggression." (Justin Huggler : The Daily Telegraph : 18 January 2022) (my emphasis)

ABC News : 19 January 2022

True to form,

"On Tuesday (18 January 2022), Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, of the Greens, a junior coalition partner, will be in Moscow to meet her Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov for talks that she hopes will lead to a de-escalation of tensions at the Ukrainian border, where Russia has amassed some 100,000 troops.
.....
Baerbock’s appearance in the Russian capital risks sending a message that Berlin cares more about its bilateral relations, including economic ties, than it does about the Russian military buildup on the border with Ukraine. (Pic left: German Economic Jackboots walking over Ukraine to Putin's Russia)

"During the talks between the ministers, it is planned to discuss the state and prospects of Russian-German relations, the formation of a schedule of political contacts, the practical aspects of building cooperation in the trade, economic, cultural, humanitarian and historical-memorial spheres,” the ministry stated." (Hans von der Burchard and David M. Herszenhorn : Politico : 17 January 2020) (my emphasis)

 www.dw.com : 18 January 2022

It is this stance of Germany that has given Putin the "green light" to invade Ukraine.

 (to be continued)

 

STOP PRESS

 

This morning (19 January 2022) Matthew Lee (left) reports that,

"As U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visits Ukraine, the Biden administration said Wednesday it’s providing an additional $200 million in defensive military aid to the country amid soaring fears of a Russian invasion.
.....
“We are committed to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and will continue to provide Ukraine the support it needs,” the official said. The official did not detail the contents of the aid package.
.....
The announcement came as Blinken opened a hastily arranged visit to Kyiv as he and other administration officials step up warnings about a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine. The White House said Tuesday that Russia could at any point launch an attack in Ukraine." (ABC News : 19 January 2022) (my emphasis)

STOP

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nord Stream 2 and Putin's war with Ukraine

 

 Operning the Nord Stream2 project in 2011 with Angela Merkel, Dmitry Medvedev, Mark Rutte and François Fillon.

 

On 02 September 2020 I wrote that,

"We know that [German Defence Minister] Ursula von den Leyen, like German Chancellor Merkel, is fully behind the completion of Nord Stream2. A quick resolution of the war between Putin and Ukraine will enable Nord Stream2 to be completed, notwithstanding the threat of US sanctions against EU companies involved in its completion.

Let us recall that in 2019,

"European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on December 27 criticized new U.S. legislation that imposes sanctions on European companies building the Russian Nord Stream 2 natural-gas pipeline to Germany." (RFERL : 27 December 2019) (my emphasis)

Was Nord Stream2 on Ursula von den Leyen's mind whilst having that tête-à-tête call with Zelenskiy on 28 August 2020? " (blog entry 02/09/2020)

 And today Reuters reports that,

"German Defence Minister Christine Lambrecht (left) on Thursday warned against drawing a link between the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, meant to transport natural gas from Russia to Germany, and the differences with Moscow over Ukraine.

“We should not drag (Nord Stream 2) into this conflict,” Lambrecht told the broadcaster rbb in an interview." (Reuters : 13 January 2021) (my emphasis)

Again do I wish to draw the attention of my readers to the Treaty of Rapallo signed between Germany and Russia in 1922 

At that time, "Germany and Russia were rapidly moving closer together because each could use what the other had to offer. Russia needed Germany's skilled, now idle industrial workers, its engineers, and general knowledge of advanced industrial methods. For Germany, Russia provided an outlet for its energies, a market for its products, and a source of raw materials" (Wikipedia) (my emphasis)

Today, Putin's Russia similarly provides a market for Germany's products (cf: Siemens electricity turbines now operating in Ukraine's Crimea that has been annexed by Putin), and Angela Merkel's and Putin's Nord Stream2 Pipeline underscores German Defence Minister Christine Lambrecht's argument that Nord Stream 2 is simply to obtain 'raw materials (gas) from Putin's Russia'.

Unlike Germany's Defence Minister Christine Lambrecht, Germany's current Foreign Minister, Annalena Baerbock sees Nord Stream 2 as a geoploitical weapon being used by Putin not only to 'blackmail' the EU, but also to attack Ukraine economically.

She recently stated that,

"Germany must comply with European requirements, this also applies to Nord Stream 2. This is currently not the case, so the certification process is now suspended. And of course Nord Stream 2 also has geopolitical implications. This is why in the “joint declaration” with the US government we agreed that, should Russia use energy as a weapon or commit other aggressive actions against Ukraine, we will take effective measures together with our European partners" (Breaking Latest News : 10 January 2022) (my emphasis)

 Youtube : 9 November 2021

No doubt this critical division between Germany's Defence Ministry and Germany's Foreign Office over Nord Stream 2 is a determining factor in Putin's political calculus during the current flurry of meetings being held about his demands to turn the political clock back prior to the collapse of the USSR.

Putin's economy desperately NEEDS Nord Stream 2 to come on stream!

As Jake Cordell reports,

"The Russian economy is set to revert to its pre-coronavirus pattern of sluggish growth, weak investment and underwhelming living standards in 2022, economists predict, as the Kremlin re-embraces austerity after the initial impact of the Covid-19 pandemic." (The Moscow Times : 4 January 2022) (my emphasis)

Will Germany's Defence Ministry now checkmate Germany's Foreign Office into giving the green light for Nord Stream 2 to start pumping gas to Germany to save Putin's flailing economy?

(to be continued)