Is Putin actually afraid of starting a war with Ukraine?

Whilst Emmanuel Macron meets with Putin in Moscow, over in the US, President Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, have thrown down the gauntlet to Putin.

As reported in the Independent,

"On his first trip to the White House as German Chancellor, Mr Scholz said Berlin and Washington “will be united” in their response to an incursion by Moscow, after the US president warned they would bring the £8.3bn [Nord Stream2] project “to an end” if Russian troops cross the Ukrainian border." (The Independent : 7 February 2020) (my emphasis)

 

 

Meanwhile, back in Moscow, Macron and Putin have thrown down the gauntlet to Biden and Scholz by emphasising that they had found points of "convergence" regarding the "security of Europe".

 

As reported by CNN,

 

"Macron said that he and Putin were able to find "points of convergence" over the crisis and that it was "up to us to agree, jointly, concrete and specific measures to stabilize the situation and to de-escalate tensions."
...
Putin, who had sharply critical words for NATO and Ukraine, suggested "further steps" were possible on the diplomatic front.
...
Despite the diplomatic overtures, Putin accused Ukraine of violating the rights of its Russian-speaking population .... (CNN : 8 February 2022) (my emphasis)

 

 

Similarly, as reported by France24,

"Putin said that a number of Macron’s ideas concerning security were realistic and that the two would talk again once Macron had travelled to Kyiv to meet Ukraine’s leadership." (France24 :7 February 2022) (my emphasis)

 

As also reported by Reuters on January 19 2022,

"French President Emmanuel Macron called on fellow members of the European Union on Wednesday to work together to draw up proposals for a new security deal with Russia in the coming weeks involving a "frank dialogue" with Moscow.

Speaking amid growing worries over a Russian military build-up at Ukraine's borders, Macron did not spell out what the "new stability and security order" he is seeking could entail, but said it must ensure Europe defends its interests.

"We will make sure that Europe makes its unique and strong voice heard," he told the European Parliament as he laid out France's priorities for its sixth-month EU presidency." (Reuters : 19 January 2022) (my emphasis)

These EU security proposals of Macron were first proposed by Macron in 2020, who envisaged an EU Defence Policy that would be parallel to the NATO security policy of Europe. 

Now as reported by Patrick Wintour  in 2020, Macron said that,

"Europe’s middle classes will only remain reconciled to the European Union if it becomes more integrated, with an effective defence policy, a larger budget and integrated capital markets" (The Guardian : 15 February 2020) (my emphasis)

At this time, when Angela Merkel was still Chancellor of Germany,

"Macron was speaking after two leading German politicians affirmed Germany needed to do more to respond to Macron’s offer of dialogue.

The [then] German foreign minister, Heiko Maas (right), said: “Germany is ready to get more involved, including militarily.” He called for the “construction of a European security and defence union as a strong, European pillar of Nato”. (ibid Patrick Wintour)

Of critical relevance to Macron's proposals for an 'independent' EU security policy is the implementation of the Minsk2 protocols (cf: Wikipedia).

These protocols, that were,

" ...brokered by Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany and President François Hollande of France, took place in Minsk. These produced a ‘package of measures for the implementation of the Minsk agreements’ (‘Minsk-2’). This document, signed on 12 February 2015 by representatives from the OSCE, Russia, Ukraine, the DNR and LNR, has been the framework for subsequent attempts to end the war." (Duncan Allen : Chatham House : 22 May 2020) (my emphasis)

Since 2015, however, Minsk2 has been largely ignored by Putin. 

As Duncan Allen explains,

 

"... Minsk-2 supports mutually exclusive views of sovereignty: either Ukraine is sovereign (Ukraine’s interpretation), or it is not (Russia’s interpretation) – this is the ‘Minsk conundrum’. (ibid )

And yet ... and yet ...

At their press conference yesterday, BOTH Macron and Putin re-emphasised the implementation of Minsk2 to avoid Putin's second invasion of Ukraine, with Putin indirectly stressing that Ukraine is NOT a sovereign country as evidenced by his reiteration that his proxies in Ukraine's Donbas MUST be fully consulted about the future of Donbas.

 

France24 : 7 February 2022

Even more disconcerting, Putin reasserted that Ukraine's Crimea is no longer part of Ukraine since he illegally invaded and annexed it into the Russian Federation in 2014!.

The political 'backslapping' between them at yesterday's press conference was nothing more nor less than a public display of the "Putin-Macron mutual admiration society".

Putin is seemingly digging in his heels over continuing to threaten his second invasion of Ukraine and, as one of Putin's proxies in Ukraine's Donbas recently stated,

"Denis Pushilin (left), [Putin's proxy] head of the breakaway Donetsk People's Republic, said there was a high likelihood of a war that would bring huge casualties, although it would be "madness" to embrace such a conflict.

"First of all we rely on ourselves, but we do not rule out that we will be forced to turn to Russia if Ukraine, with the support of Western countries, passes a certain line," he told Reuters in an interview in his fortified office." (Anton Zverev: (MSN) Reuters:7 February 2022) (my emphasis)

There may, however, be other reasons why Putin is threatening to invade Ukraine and, in the process, engulfing Europe in the conflagration that will follow.

As reported by Sky News,

"Exiled Russian oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky claims Vladimir Putin is 'afraid of starting a war with Ukraine'

....
"At present the opposition in Russia has been reduced to a bare minimum - by way of arrests, pressure on their families etc."But it also means that opposition sentiments have gone deeper underground. This means that Putin doesn't really know what society's reaction is going to be to this or that action.
 

"It is one of the reasons why he is in fact afraid of starting a war with Ukraine.
...

"He is not confident that Russian society would support such a war - and I'm sure that Russian people will not support it. (cf: Niko Vorobyov: Aljazeera: 3 February 2022)

...
"This is a serious challenge for Putin - it is something that he is afraid of tackling.
 

And [Khodorkovsky] warned that if in the past Mr Putin might have been a man who would listen to others, or exercise some caution, "this has changed".

He added: "He is convinced of his own infallibility, and he is capable of all sorts of actions, including ill-judged ones." (Sky News : 6 February 2022) (my emphasis)

Sky News : 6 Feb 2022

 So is Putin actually afraid of starting a war with Ukraine?

 (to be continued)