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Tuesday 22 February 2022

What sanctions against Putin will the EU come up with? A little 'slap on the wrist'?

Putin has invaded Ukraine. 

The world community now stands severly tested as to whether their words will be followed by deeds.

As Michael McFaul states,

"After Hitler annexation and wars, we created the UN Security Council to create laws against annexation, against great powers taking territory from smaller powers. Putin did just that. The world has to respond now. Right now." (CNBC TV : YouTube : 22 February 2020) (my emphasis)

Contrast the response of McFaul to that of the EU's foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell.

As reported by BBC News,

"EU foreign ministers will adopt sanctions on Tuesday afternoon against Russia over its recognition and incursion into Ukrainian separatist regions, the bloc's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell (left) has said.
...
The 74-year-old told reporters while he wouldn't call Moscow's deployment of troops to separatist regions "a fully-fledged invasion", he emphasised that the EU considers the region as Kyiv's territory and said that "Russian troops are on Ukrainian soil".
...
Envoys from members states will meet on Tuesday morning where EU officials expect there to be some debate on the strength of measures to be applied, with some countries favouring a more limited response. (BBC News : 22 February 2022) (my emphasis)
So, unlike McFaul, Putin moving troops into Ukraine's occupied Donbasregion is not seen by Borrell as "a fully-fledged invasion". 

Has Josep Borrell not read ANY history? Was Hitler's 'annexation' of the Sudetenland in Czechoslovakia in 1938 NOT an invasion of Czechoslovakia by his Nazi Wermacht? (Wikipedia) (right: Hitler in Prague after his invasion of Czechoslovakia)

But even more critically, exactly "what" sanctions will the EU adopt against Putin for his second invasion of Ukraine

And which EU countries are favouring a "limited" response?

This morning, as UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is holding an emergency Cobra meeting at his offices in 10 Downing Street, UK Health Minister Sajid Javid outlines the sanctions strategy of the UK.

As he says in this interview,

"[Boris Johnson] spoke late last night to President Zelensky of Ukraine to offer him our support and solidarity and also told him we will be taking action as we said we always will.....

.... It's clear from President Putin's actions that he has choosen confrontation over dialogue .....

.... Those sanctions, as we've again said before, ... these sanctions will be targetting individuals, companies, and businesses with links to the Russian regime, but also we will be looking at what sectors of the Russian economy can be targeted ..." (BBC News : 7.35 a.m. 22 February 2020) (my emphasis)

So the $ 64 question now is,

"What sanctions package will the EU come up with? And will it be as broad and targetted as those sanctions that UK Minister Sajid Javid has outlined in his BBC interview this morning?"

More specifically, "which EU countries are favouring a "limited" response?

My guess is that the EU countries favouring a "limited response" to Putins second invasion of Ukraine would be Germany, France, and Italy.

 Already, as reported by Crispian Balmer and Giuseppe Fonte,

"Any sanctions that may be imposed on Russia by the European Union should not include energy imports, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi (left) said on Friday.
....
"We are discussing sanctions with the EU and in the course of these discussions we have made our position known, that they should be concentrated on narrow sectors without including energy," Draghi said at a news conference." (Reuters : 18 February 2022) (my emphasis)

And as reported by RFE/RL,

"German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (right) spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin by phone on February 21 as part of efforts that a Scholz spokesman said were intended to “prevent a catastrophe” in Ukraine.
...
Germany has vowed to join its Western allies in placing tough sanctions on Moscow should it decide to invade its neighbor." (RFE/RL : 21 February 2022) (my emphasis)

But what, exactly, does the Olaf Scholz caveat "tough sanctions" mean?

Will Nord Stream2 be plugged?

That, I doubt very much, since it will also supply Mario Draghi's Italy with gas.

Germany uses approximately 2.46 times more gas than France. (Index Mundi)

Indeed, as Forrest Crellin reports,

"Despite tight gas supplies in the EU, the French gas system was in good shape in 2021. In particular, there was good storage filling during the summer season following reduced exports to neighboring countries, GRTgaz said." (Reuters : 3 February 2022) (my emphasis)

It should also be noted that Nuclear Energy and Renewables generate a sizeable chunk of French electricity. 

Indeed, France EXPORTS GAS and electricity!

So exactly WHAT sanctions against Putin will the EU come up with?

(to be continued)

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