What is Putin really fearful about that he will ignite World War 3?

On 25 November 2014, the year that Putin illegally invaded and annexed Ukraine's Crimea, I wrote that,

"In my last blog entry I stated that,

"It is also about time that Merkel ends the rather suspicious 'special' relationship that she has with Putin. Those tete-a-tete's, those private conversations that she has with Putin, sometimes until 1.30am in the morning, rather belies her 'incredulity' about his 'open' invasion of eastern Ukraine and his behaviour on the international stage."

What is now emerging, as reported in RT (November 23, 2014) is that Germany's Foreign Minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier (right), has stated in an interview with Der Spiegel magazine that, 

• he is against Ukraine joining NATO
• 
  he does not believe it is realistic for Ukraine to join the European Union in the foreseeable future, as the economic and political modernization of Ukraine is a “project for a few generations.”  (my emphasis)
• it is possible for NATO to have a partnership with Ukraine, but not membership

Steinmeier could NOT have made these statements WITHOUT the blessing of Merkel. Could this be what Merkel and Putin agreed upon when they had their private 4-hour tete a tete in Brisbane? (blog)" (blog 25/11/2014)

 

Let us also recall that in 2014, in a speech at the 50th Munich Security Conference, Germany's President Joachim Gauck said that,

 

"I have to admit that while there are genuine pacifists in Germany, there are also people who use Germany’s guilt for its past as a shield for laziness or a desire to disengage from the world. In the words of the historian Heinrich August Winkler, this is an attitude that grants Germany a questionable "right to look the other way, which other Western democracies" cannot claim for themselves. Restraint can thus be taken too far if people start making special rules for themselves. Whenever that happens, I will criticise it." (Federal President Joachim Gauck) (my emphasis) (blog entry 30/11/2014)

Guack was arguing that the 'Ostpolitik' instituted by the SPD member Willy Brandt (right), when he was Chancellor of Germany during the 1970's, and that is still fervently clung to by Merkel and the SDP member Steinmeier, has now become defunct.

 
The world has changed, he argues, and Germany must,

" ..... not turn a blind eye, not run from threats, but instead stand firm, not forget, neglect or betray universal values, but instead uphold these values together with our friends and partners. Let us be seen to be living by them, let us defend them." (ibid  Federal President Joachim Gauck) (my emphasis)

 

Fast forward to today and it is against this German political backdrop that Putin's current demands about Ukraine never being able to allow to join NATO has to be viewed. 

 

Let us also remind ourselves that recently, as reported by Laurenz Gehrke,

 

"Former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder (left) has been nominated to join the board of directors at Gazprom, the state-owned Russian energy company behind the Nord Stream 2 pipeline." (Politico : 4 February 2022) (my emphasis) 

 

And against this backdrop, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will be meeting today (15 Feb 2022) with Putin to try and prevent him from invading Ukraine.

As reported by Michael Fitzpatrick,

"Germany's Scholtz (right) was firm in his resolve to support Ukraine and hit Russia "immediately" with punishing sanctions should Moscow invade.

....
Scholz has warned Russia it should "not underestimate our unity and determination" but also hedged against unequivocally backing Biden's pledge to "bring an end" to Russia's new Nord Stream 2 gas link to Germany." (Radio France Internationale : 14 February 2022) (my emphasis)

But as Germany's former President, Joachim Gauck, stated in 2014,

" ... there are also people who use Germany’s guilt for its past as a shield for laziness or a desire to disengage from the world. In the words of the historian Heinrich August Winkler, this is an attitude that grants Germany a questionable "right to look the other way, which other Western democracies" cannot claim for themselves" (ibid President Joachim Gauck)

German Chancellor Scholz's meeting with Putin today will call on him for restraint.

However, in the words of  Joachim Gauck, "Restraint can thus be taken too far if people start making special rules for themselves"(ibid Guack)

And Scholtz's reluctance to "bring an end" to Russia's Nord Stream2 gas link to Germany exemplifies him "making questionable special rules" behind the 1970's "Ostpolitik" shield of Willy Brandt that has long become defunct. (cf: Joachim Glauck)

As German Chancellor Scholtz meets today with Putin, Dan Sabbagh and Jessica Elgot (left) report that,

"Russia is sending thousands more troops to its border with Ukraine in a sign that Vladimir Putin could extend the crisis for weeks, as Boris Johnson warned the situation had become “very, very dangerous”.

British officials estimate that a further 14 Russian battalions are heading towards Ukraine, each numbering about 800 troops, on top of the 100 battalions massed on the borders – a force already believed capable of launching an invasion." (The Guardian : 14 February 2022) (my emphasis) (cf. also: Wall Street Journal: 14 Feb 2022) (video: Tim Lister, Gianluca Mezzofiore and Paul P. Murphy:CNN : 15 February 2022)

As also reported by Alix Culbertson,

"Ms Truss (UK Foreign Secretary) told Sky News: "If we saw an invasion into Ukraine, there would be severe costs in terms of a long-running conflict, we could see the undermining of security more broadly in Europe and could see other aggressors around the world see it as an opportunity to expand their ambitions too.

"This is a very dangerous moment for the world." (Sky News (video below) : 15 february 2022) (my emphasis) 

What is disconcerting is that Putin could extend this crisis for weeks (Dan Sabbagh and Jessica Elgot), if not months.

 As reported by Vladimir Isachenkov and Yuras Karmanau (Associated Press),

"After weeks of rising tensions over Ukraine, the tenor changed Monday, when Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov (left) indicated that Russia was ready to keep talking about the security grievances that have led to the crisis. In what could be another sign that the Kremlin would like to lower the temperature, Russia’s Defense Ministry announced Tuesday that some units participating in military exercises would begin returning to their bases."

 

Dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's suggestion to Putin that they should "keep talking about the security grievances that have led to the crisis" viz. the rollback of NATO in the east and, in particular stopping Ukraine from joining NATO, is a mantra that has been chanted as early as 2014 by Germany's then Foreign Minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier. (see above)

So the critical question is:

"Why has Putin waited from 2014 until now to throw everything his military forces have at their disposal (including the proverbial kitchen sink) along Ukraine's border?"

What is Putin really fearful about that he will ignite World War 3?

 

(to be continued)