Putin is now at the edge of lashing out dangerously

Let us recall that in my blog entry (11 August 2016) I wrote that,

"As inevitably as the sun will rise to-morrow morning, Putin is repeating his pretext for escalating the war between Russia and Ukraine that he did when he was head of the FSB in 1999, and oversaw the Moscow apartment bombings that he used as a causus belli to start his war with Chechnya.

Let us for a moment remind ourselves that those 1999 apartment bombings in Moscow led to the deaths of 293, and injured more than 1000 people, whilst at the same time spreading a wave of fear across the country. (cf Wikipedia)

There is enough evidence that exposes the fact that these bombings were staged by the then FSB under Putin. (cf Wikipedia)

This is best illustrated by the failed Ryazan bombing attempt by the FSB.

Ryazan 1999 : Part1 and Part2

And now (2016) we have Putin attempting to use the very same FSB tactic to provoke a full scale war with Ukraine. " (blog : 11 August 2016)  (Full Video : Youtube 23 April 2013)

Fast forward to 2022 and Julian Borger, Shaun Walker, and Dan Sabbagh report that,

"US officials claim they have evidence of a Russian plan to make a “very graphic” fake video of a Ukrainian attack as a pretext for an invasion.

The alleged plot would involve using corpses, footage of blown-up buildings, fake Ukrainian military hardware, Turkish-made drones and actors playing the part of Russian-speaking mourners.
.....
The Pentagon spokesman, John Kirby, said the video would have purported to show a Ukrainian attack on Russian territory or Russian-speaking people in eastern Ukraine and would be “very graphic”. He added that the US believed that the plan had the backing of the Kremlin." (The Guardian : 3 February 2020) (my emphasis) (cf also : Aljazeera : BBC News : Financial Times : Reuters :  amongst others)  

MSNBC : 3 February 2020

It cannot be a coincidence that Putin's modus operandi in 1999 to stoke up Russian hysteria against the Chechen people comes straight out of the playbook of 'maskirovka' (Wikipedia), the Russian doctrine that covers a broad range of measures for military deception, from camouflage to denial and deception.

When viewed against the evidence of the FSB-orchestrated plan to blow up Russian citizens in Ryazan in 1999,  the reports of many (cf. Aljazeera : BBC News : Financial Times : Reuters) that Putin is possibly planning to make a “very graphic” fake video of a Ukrainian attack as a pretext for his 2nd invasion of Ukraine is not so far fetched as it may seem.

Just as in 1999, when the people of Ryazan did not fall for the crude and deceptive explanations about the attempted bombing planned by Putin's FSB, today there is the small beginning of an anti-war movement in Saint Petersburg (formerly Leningrad).

As reported by Niko Vorobyov (left),

"In Russia, where protests are tightly restricted, a small anti-war movement is growing as the Ukraine crisis rumbles on.
....
On Sunday, more than 100 prominent Russian activists, authors and academics signed an an open letter decrying the “party of war in the Russian leadership” and state media.
....
“Russia does not need war with Ukraine or the West,” the letter concludes. “No-one is threatening us, and no-one will attack us. Politics founded on the advancement of the idea of such a war is amoral, irresponsible, and criminal, and cannot be carried on in the name of the Russian people.” (Aljazeera : 3 February 2022) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, as Jake Cordell (right) reports, Russian economic experts are warning that,

“Russia’s increasingly assertive foreign policy represents a potential double setback for the economy by risking the imposition of additional sanctions while further neglecting long-standing socio-economic problems,” said Scope Ratings analyst Levon Kameryan in a research note published Thursday.
.....
Central to those socio-economic problems is the living standards crisis that has beset the Russian economy in recent years. (Moscow Times : 21 January 2022) (my emphasis)

As the domestic economic problems of the Russian people continues to exact a heavy burden on their everyday lives, and Putin continues to paint himself into an ever tightening political corner, the eyes of the international community will turn towards those Russian 'siloviki' and kleptomaniac oligarchs who live under Putin's "krisha" or, as Howard Witt explains,

"As casually as business executives in Chicago might talk about the cost of fire insurance, businesspeople in Russia trade stories about the cost of their krisha or "roof," referring to mobsters extorting monthly protection payments." (Chicago Tribune : 24 November 1996) (my emphasis)

Is the 'cost' of Putin's 'krisha' now becoming potentially too high for his 'siloviki' and kleptomaniac oligarchs?

Is Putin now at the edge of lashing out dangerously?

(to be continued)