Would Putin, in his current state of mind, accept a stalemate and start negotiations?

If there is perhaps one singular fact that gives the lie to Putin's constant refrain in his second war with Ukraine being motivated by the so-called "de-nazification" of Ukraine then it is the death of Boris Romantschenko, aged 96, who survived in the Buchenwald Concentration Camp from 1942 to1945.

As reported by the BBC,

"A Ukrainian man who survived the Nazi Holocaust during World War Two has been killed during a Russian attack on the eastern city of Kharkiv.
...
Boris Romantschenko, 96, died during Russian shelling of his apartment block on Friday, relatives said. (BBC News : 21 March 2022) (my emphasis)

At the same time, as reported by Mark Nicol,

"A pro-Kremlin Russian tabloid said nearly 10,000 Russian soldiers have died fighting in Ukraine before quickly scrubbing the casualty figure from its website.
...
Komsomolskaya Pravda on Sunday published a story citing Russian Defense Ministry officials who disputed casualty numbers reported by their Ukrainian counterparts. However, the story was changed after its initial publication with the number deleted, indicating that tight controls remain on information available to the Russian public concerning the war." (Mail Online : 22 March 2022) (my emphasis) (cf. also: Jake Thomas : Newsweek : 21 March 2022)

As also reported by EuroMaidan,

"In intercepted phone calls with relatives, Russian soldiers admit they shell civilians and loot shops; they also say they were sent to Ukraine as cannon fodder or that command abandoned them. They admit heavy losses in Ukraine: some want to retreat or desert and describe disappointment, others are quite indifferent and ready to continue the fight.

 Soldier: “No food, no water… One package of field food for the two of us and that’s all. Yesterday there was heavy shelling. We lost one vehicle and the Kamaz with ammunition and food. No sense to remain here. No ammunition, no fuel…(EuroMaidan : 21 March 2022) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile, Putin now threatens to break off diplomatic relations with the US because US President Biden refered to him as a "war criminal".

As US Deputy Secretary of State, Wendy Sherman (left), explains,

"I think that we all have seen what we have seen, we know what's happening, and Vladimir Putin is reponsible" (MSNBC : 21 March 2022) (my emphasis) 

Interviewer Andrea Mitchel also asked Wendy Sherman what the US would do if Putin starts to use chemical weapons against Ukrainians. (cf also: Arpan Rai and Tom Batchelor : The Independent : 22 March 2022)

Wendy Sherman responded,

"Well this will certainly be on the agenda when the President travels to Brussels later this week, and then on to Poland. He will be meeting with NATO allies, with the European Council, and with the G7, and our concern about the use of chemical and biological weapons will certainly be on that agenda [ ..... ] and the President has said, Secretary Blinken has said .. we have all said in our discussions with the media, that there will be severe costs to Russia a should they take such horrible action." (ibid Wendy Sherman)

 (ibid Arpan Rai and Tom Batchelor : 22 March 2022)

This concern of the West, that Putin may now use chemical and biological weapons, stem partly from reports that :-

• Russians are starting to feel the economic pinch after Western countries imposed an unprecedented set of sanctions over Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. (AlJazeera: 17 March 2022) (my emphasis)
• Russia has requested Chinese MREs (Meals, Ready-to-Eat) in a move that “underscores the basic logistical challenges” the Russians have been experiencing, according to CNN, which “raises questions about the fundamental readiness of the Russian military.” (Task and Purpose : 15 March 2022) (my emphasis)
• Vladimir Putin’s troops are also said to be running low on ammunition and food, with Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence stating that Russia has supplies that will last “no more than three days”. (Emily Ferguson : MSN News : 22 March 2022) (my emphasis)
• Ukrainian military are reporting that a company that produces and repairs Russian tanks has suspended work at its plant in the central Russian region of Chelyabinsk due to a shortage of imported parts [.....] "due to the lack of receipts of foreign-made components" (BBC News : 22 March 2022) (my emphasis)   

In the words of US President Biden,

"US President Joe Biden has given his strongest warning yet that Russia may be preparing to use chemical and biological weapons in Ukraine ...Biden says Russian leader Vladimir Putin has "his back to the wall" as a result of Ukrainian resistance, and there was a danger he could resort to more severe tactics" ((BBC News : 22 March 2022) (my emphasis)

As also reported by Joseph Choi (right),

"The war between Russia and Ukraine is nearing a stalemate, with neither side nearing victory or willing to give in, according to a NATO intelligence official.
...
Speaking to NBC News, the unnamed NATO official said, “If we’re not in a stalemate, we are rapidly approaching one." (The Hill : 21 March 2022) (my emphasis)

Former US Ambassador to Russia, Michael McFaul believes that,

"A stalemate would be a fantastic outcome because wars end in two ways Ari ... either one side wins or a stalemate ... And a stalemate creates the permissive conditions ... I would say the pre-conditions ... for an actual negotiated settlement .." (MSNBC : 22 March 2022) (my emphasis)

The $64 question is :-

"Would Putin, in his current state of mind, accept a stalemate and start negotiations?"

(to be continued)

A dangerous Putin is running out of time

The siege of Mariupol, and the criminal and inhuman devastation of that city by Putin will, as Ukraine's President, Volodomyr Zelensky, says,

“To do this to a peaceful city, what the occupiers did, is a terror that will be remembered for centuries to come,” he said. (BBC News : 20 March 2022) (my emphasis)

 As reported by BBC News,

"Ukraine's deputy prime minister has accused Russia of committing acts of "genocide" during its invasion of her country.
...
Speaking on Sky's Sophy Ridge programme, Olha Stefanishyna (right) said she "absolutely believes" that acts of genocide have been committed by the Russian regime, and said that President Vladimir Putin and leaders in the Kremlin "are war criminals". (BBC News : 20 March 2022) (my emphasis)

And whilst the people of Mariupol were been systematically slaughtered, including children, Putin held a rally in Moscow in which he exhorted the crowd to,

"... namely to liberate the people [in the Donbas territories that he invaded in 2014 and, in the case of Ukraine's Crimea, annexed into the Russian Federation] from this genocide, of these sufferings,... this is the main reason, motive, and goal of the military operation which we have launched in the Donbass and Ukraine. This is what the goal is." (Global News : YouTube : 19 March 2022)

It is against this backdrop that the current diplomatic frenzy to convene Peace Talks is, in the eyes of many, yet another Putin ploy to continue his "razing Ukrainian cities to the ground" strategy, as evidenced by what is, at this very minute, happening in Mariupol and many other cities around Ukraine.

As reported by Dave Lawler,

"The outlines of a potential deal to end the war in Ukraine are coming into focus, but sources on the Ukrainian side tell Axios they fear Moscow's newfound enthusiasm for diplomacy is a ruse." (Axios : 17 March 2020) (my emphasis)

British Foreign Secretary, Liz Truss (left), is even more explicit. 

As reported by Markus Parekh,

"Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said on Friday that she fears peace talks between Russia and Ukraine are being used as a "smokescreen" by the Kremlin to allow forces to regroup.
...
In an interview with The Times, Ms Truss said: "If a country is serious about negotiations, it doesn't indiscriminately bomb civilians that day."
...
The minister said she was "very sceptical" about the negotiations, and added: "What we've seen is an attempt to create space for the Russians to regroup."
...
"We don't see any serious withdrawal of Russian troops or any serious proposals on the table." (The Telegraph : 19 March 2022) (my emphasis)

Which brings into sharp focus Xi Jinping, President of China.

Recall that in my blog entry of (15 March), I wrote that,

"[A]s reported by The Guardian (Reuters),

"Joe Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan (right), who is due to meet China’s top diplomat, Yang Jiechi, in Rome on Monday, warned on Sunday that Beijing will “absolutely” face consequences if it helps Moscow evade sanctions over the invasion of Ukraine.
...
The White House national security council declined to comment, however, on reports that Russia has asked China for military equipment since its invasion of Ukraine on 24 February.
...
The Financial Times, Washington Post and New York Times reported the request on Sunday, citing US officials." (The Guardian : 13 March 2022) (my emphasis) ( video: MSNBC (YouTube) : 15 March 2022) (cf also: The White House : Briefing Room : 18 March 2022)

David Dodwell outlines why President Xi Jinping is worried about sanctions against China.

"Nick Lardy, China expert at the Washington-based Peterson Institute for International Economics, estimates that China's trade jumped from around US$4.6 trillion in 2020 to US$6.05 trillion last year - accounting for about 17 per cent of trade worldwide. Up to last September, China also accounted for 19 per cent of global investment, he estimates.
...
Aligning with a reckless and isolated Putin would jeopardise all this amid rising anxiety over the recessionary and inflationary effects of the pandemic. As Lardy noted, "having a significant portion of the Chinese economy subjected to Western sanctions is a risk that President Xi [ ...] is not likely to take". (MSN News : 18 March 2022) (my emphasis)

As Yukon Huang (left) also explains,

" ... Beijing would seem unlikely or incapable of coming to Moscow’s rescue. UN data indicates that China exported only about $70 billion of goods to Russia in 2021, while exports to the EU and United States totaled over $1 trillion. Beijing will not want to lose access to Western markets by violating the sanctions." (Carnegie Endowment : 16 March 2022) (my emphasis)

President Xi Jinping may, indeed, not risk having the Chinese economy subjected to Western sanctions.

These are the cold hard facts that President Xi Jinping has to contend with.

There is now also a growing consensus internationally that all is not quite well with Putin.

As reported by Rebecca Jones (right),

"Intelligence sources have also suggested Putin's "bloated face" could be potential side effects of prolonged use of steroids.
...
Citing sources close to the Kremlin, senior figures from Australia, New Zealand, the UK and the US, believe there is a physiological explanation for his globally reviled decision to invade Ukraine.
...
"There has been an identifiable change in his decision-making over the past five years or so.
...
"Those around him see a marked change in the cogency and clarity of what he says and how he perceives the world around him." (Express : 14 March 2022) (my emphasis)

As also reported by Imogen Braddick and Katie Davis,

"It's thought the Russian leader's decision to invade Ukraine might have been sparked by not only his unhinged mental state, but also by a worrying physical health condition. 

Putin has appeared notably more bloated around the face and neck in recent weeks - suggesting he might be undergoing treatment with steroids for a health condition.

It was also reported visitors to the Kremlin had to walk through an elaborate disinfectant-spraying tunnel.
...
Therefore, many have been left puzzled as to why he would take such a huge gamble on taking over the whole of Ukraine in one go - unless he was unwell and had limited time.
...
It increases the suspicion that perhaps his physical health means he is running out of time. " (The Sun : 4 March 2022) (my emphasis) (cf also: BBC News : 20 March 2022)

(to be continued)

Putin will not break the fighting spirit of Ukrainians.

Yesterday, US President Biden made public that Putin is a war criminal. 

As reported by Brittany Bernstein,

"President Biden said Wednesday that Russian President Vladimir Putin is a “war criminal” for his attacks on Ukraine.
... [  ]
The comment came in response to a question from a reporter who asked if Biden is “ready to call Putin a war criminal.”
...
The president first appeared to misunderstand the question and replied, “No.”

Biden then added: “Did you ask me whether I should call?”
“Oh, I think he is a war criminal,” the president clarified. (Yahoo News : 16 March 2022) (my emphasis)

 

MSNBC : YouTube : 16 March 2022

What is meant by a "war criminal"?

War Crimes are crimes that come under the collective name of core international crimes. Core international crimes are some of the gravest crimes in international law, examples of them can include: the crime of genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes and torture.
...
War Crimes:

Violations of the laws or customs of war, including:

• 
  atrocities or offences against persons or property, constituting violations of the laws or customs of war
• murder, ill treatment or deportation to slave labour or for any other purpose of the civilian population in occupied territory
• killing of hostages
• torture or inhuman treatment, including biological experiments
• breaches of the Geneva Conventions.
• plunder of public or private property
• wanton destruction of cities, towns or villages
• devastation not justified by military necessity
• destruction of property that is of particular cultural significance
  

Since the start of this second war of Putin against the Ukrainian people, the world has been watching in real-time as an avalanche of images and TV footage of his war with Ukraine lays bare the crimes being committed by Putin.

As reported by bne IntelliNews,

"The Ukrainian government claims that Russia dropped a powerful bomb on the Mariupol Drama Theatre where hundreds of mostly women and children were sheltering from the bombardment of the city on March 16. 
...
The theatre was a well-known refugee point used by locals to avoid the shelling of the city. A satellite image released by the private US company Maxar Technologies shows the words “Children” painted on the ground in front and back of the building that is clearly visible from the air as of March 14. " (bne IntelliNews : 17 Match 2022) (my emphasis) (cf also: Fox News (video below) : AlJazeera : BBC News)

 

And against this horrendous bombing backdrop, Putin is exhorting the Russian people to get rid of the "traitors" in their midst that are calling his "war" with Ukraine, a "war",  during which he also called upon the Russian people for the "self-purification" of Russia! (video : Tomasz Przechlewski : YouTube : 17 March 2022)

These exhortations of Putin came after that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, announced that,

"As Russia has pursued its war with Ukraine, it has held parallel negotiations with Kyiv ostensibly seeking a peace deal from its own invasion of a neighbouring country.
...
Those talks, which appeared to be a sideshow to the continuing war, received an unexpected boost on Wednesday as both sides indicated that discussions had yielded some progress." (Andrew Roth : The Guardian : 16 March 2022) (my emphasis)
...
BUT SHORTLY THEREAFTER
...
"Putin gave [that] defiant speech to top officials on Wednesday in which he said Russia’s “special military operation” was going to plan and that Russia would achieve its goals in Ukraine and not bow to the west."
...
Using highly charged rhetoric, Putin likened the west to Nazi Germany by accusing it of launching an economic “blitzkrieg” against Russia in order to “demoralise our society, to bulldoze us”. (ibid Andrew Roth) (my emphasis) 

As Alexander Gabuev remarks,

“Some chances [for peace] are there but I’m pretty sceptical that a negotiated solution will be achieved in those talks,” said Alexander Gabuev, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Moscow Center. “Russia will not only seek leverage for the talks on the battleground but will seek victory on the battleground. If the more gentle – if you can call it that – tactics are not working, then Russia will just unleash all of their firepower. On Kyiv in particular.” 

Putin's formidable war machine has encountered a Ukrainian force that will not be cowed into submission, no matter what he throws at them.

 

As reported by  ua-Football, (Google Translated)

"A military medic from Marganets, Olga Semidyanova , died in battles with Russian invaders. She left 12 children.

Olga died in battle on March 3 at the turn of the Donetsk and Zaporozhye regions. Now the children of the deceased cannot even bury her because of the ongoing heavy fighting.

The daughter of the deceased soldier, Yulia Volkova, said that during the battle, the forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine retreated, and the battalion commander gave the command to send all the women away from the front line, but Semidyanova wanted to stay with her brothers and the company and continued to save Ukrainian soldiers to the last.

In the battle with superior enemy forces, the medic was wearing a bulletproof vest and a helmet, but this did not save her from injury. Russian troops fired from tanks and small arms. Semidyanova was hit by a rifle, she died from a wound in the abdomen, having lost a lot of blood." (ua-Football : 16 March 2022) (my emphasis)

Putin will not break the fighting spirit of Ukrainians.

(to be continued)

Putin's deceptions, and China's political distancing from his war with Ukraine.

"Oh! What a Tangled web we weave

When first we Practice to deceive"

Putin's web of deceit about his war with Ukraine, and specifically against the Russian people, is beginning to crumble.

It has taken one brave Russian, Marina Ovsyannikova, a producer at the state broadcaster’s Channel One, to broadcast on Russian TV,

"An anti-war protester interrupted a live news bulletin on Russia's state TV Channel One on Monday, holding up a sign behind the studio presenter and shouting slogans denouncing the war in Ukraine.
...
The sign, in English and Russian, read: "NO WAR. Stop the war. Don't believe propaganda. They are lying to you here." Another phrase, which looked like "Russians against war", was partly obscured. (Mark Trevelyan and Conor Humphries : Reuters: 15 March 2022) (my emphasis) (cf also: BBC 14 March 2022)

This sign on Putin's TV News Broadcast has been seen by millions of Russians and cannot be simply erased from the minds of those who saw it.

Marina Ovsyannikova (left) has since been arrested and, following the passing of a recent law by Putin that "calling a war a 'war' " is now punishable by up to 15 years in prison, Marina now faces 15 years in prison for simply 'telling the truth'! 

 

Earlier, as reported by Bloomberg,

“There was zero progress in talks [held in Turkey between Russia and Ukraine's Foreign Ministers (AlJazeera) on 10 March 2022], so it’s hard for me to understand what kind of progress President Putin is referring to,” Ukraine Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba tells Bloomberg" (Bloomberg : 12 March 2022) (my emphasis)

Also, why is Putin having to recruit "thousands" of mercenary soldiers to supplement the "thousands" of Russian conscripts when that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, made the astonishing claim that,

"Sergei Lavrov (right) has made the extraordinary claim that Russia 'did not attack Ukraine' and dismissed the 'pathetic outcry' over the Mariupol hospital bombing as peace talks broke down in Turkey today.
...
Speaking after the failed talks, Lavrov said: 'We are not planning to attack other countries. We didn't attack Ukraine, either.'
...
Despite his bizarre claim that Russia is not attacking Ukraine, he then admitted the hospital was deliberately targeted, saying it had been taken over by Ukrainian radicals and all the 'mothers and nurses were chased out of there'. (Jack Newman and Jack Wright : Mail Online : 10 March 2022) (my emphasis)

What is horrendously disturbing is that Ukraine's Foreign Minister, Dmytro Kubela (left) revealed that,

"Kuleba said after the meeting in the Turkish resort city of Antalya on March 10, 15 days into the war, that Lavrov did not commit to ensuring a humanitarian corridor in the besieged city of Mariupol." (RFERL : 10 March 2022) (my emphasis)

But as reported by MSNBC,

"Oleksiy Goncharenko, member of the Ukrainian parliament and now also a member of the civilian militia, talks about why he believes Vladimir Putin is targeting civilians in Ukraine on purpose, and the spirit that motivates him and his countrymen to fight back with everything they have." (MSNBC : 15 March 2022) (my emphasis)

Putin is now clutching at political straws. His web of deceit continues to engulf him as evidenced by his call to Emporer Xi of China to replace the armaments that he is losing in his war with Ukraine.

 

As reported by  Mark Trevelyan,

"Russia said on Sunday that it was counting on China to help it withstand the blow to its economy from Western sanctions over the war in Ukraine, but the United States warned Beijing not to provide that lifeline." (Reuters : 13 March 2022) (my emphasis)

But as reported by The Guardian (Reuters),

"Joe Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan (right), who is due to meet China’s top diplomat, Yang Jiechi, in Rome on Monday, warned on Sunday that Beijing will “absolutely” face consequences if it helps Moscow evade sanctions over the invasion of Ukraine.
...
The White House national security council declined to comment, however, on reports that Russia has asked China for military equipment since its invasion of Ukraine on 24 February.
...
The Financial Times, Washington Post and New York Times reported the request on Sunday, citing US officials." (The Guardian : 13 March 2022) (my emphasis) ( video: MSNBC (YouTube) : 15 March 2022)

Emporer Xi of China has been made fully aware of just what sanctions against China would mean as Putin's economy now begins to implode.

 

Is Emporer Xi of China willing to take the risk and help Putin to circumvent the sanctions against the Russian economy, as Putin's atrocities against the people of Ukraine continues to mount?

As Clay Chandler (right) writes,

 "And yet, as Russia's attack on its western neighbor drags into a third bloody week, the bloom is off the Xi-Putin bromance. Behind the rhetorical facade, Chinese officials are reassessing the value of the Russian entente, distancing themselves from Putin and scrambling to reposition China as a neutral observer of the Ukraine conflict." (Fortune : 11 March 2022) (my emphasis)

The political fruit of Putin's deceptions is China's political distancing from his war with Ukraine.

(to be continued)

Will Putin allow Russia to be blown into nuclear oblivion

When Hitler invaded Poland on the 1st September in 1939,

"The United Kingdom declared war on Germany on 3 September 1939, two days after Germany invaded Poland. France also declared war on Germany later the same day." (Wikipedia)

In his radio broadcast to the British people, Neville Chamberlain stated that,

"Up to the very last, it would have been possible to reach a peaceful settlement between Germany and Poland [read: Russia and Ukraine]. But Hitler [read: Putin] would not have it.
...
He [read: Putin] had evidently made up his mind to attack Poland [read: Ukraine] whatever happened.
...
And although he now says he put forward reasonable proposals which were rejected by the Poles, that is not a true statement. The proposals were never shown to the Poles nor to us.  And though they were announced by the German [read: Russian TV] broadcast on Thursday night, Hitler [read: Putin] did not wait to hear comments on them, but ordered his troops to cross the Polish [read: Ukraine] frontier the next morning.

His actions show convincingly that there is no chance of expecting that this man [read: Putin] will ever give up his practice of using force to gain his will. 

He can only be stopped by force, and we and France are today in fulfilment of our obligations, going to the aid of Poland [read: Ukraine] who is so bravely resisting this wicked and unprovoked attack upon her people.
...
But the situation in which no word given by [read: Russia's] Germany's ruler [read: Putin] could be trusted, and no people or country could feel itself safe, had become intolerable. And now that we have resolved to finish it, I know that you will all play your part with calmness and courage" 

 Please listen: Radio Broadcast of Chamberlain in 1939.

Fast forward to 2022 and, rather uneeringly, Chamberlain's speech of 1939 mirrors what now confronts not only the US, the UK, and the EU, but also the rest of the world.

So why is the world simply looking in horror at the daily atrocities commited by Putin on the Ukrainian people?

Chris Hayes : MSNBC : 10 March 2022

Fear ... fear that Putin will unleash a 'nuclear' war that will lead to the 1960's MAD ... Mutually Assured Destruction doctrine.

As Chris Hayes explains, the West is fearful of starting a nuclear war with Putin should they help the Ukrainian people by enforcing a "NO FLY ZONE" over Ukraine.

But in the words of Ukraine's President Zelensky,

"We are speaking about closing the sky .. You can't decide to close or not to close [the sky].. You can't decide .. If you united against the Nazism and this terror you have to close .. Not me .. Don't wait me asking you several times .... a million times .. Close the sky ... No .. You have to phone us .. to our people .. who lost their children and say "Sorry .. We didn't do it yesterday" (MSNBC : 11 March 2022) (my emphasis)

 

The fear of the West is also the fear of Putin.

Will Putin set off Mutually Assured nuclear Destruction if the West decares a "NO FLY ZONE" over Ukraine?

Will Putin allow Russia to be blown into nuclear oblivion, feeling content that the US and Europe will also, likewise, be blown into nuclear oblivion?

Will Putin's "siloviki" allow him to totally destroy Russia if a NO FLY ZONE over Ukraine is declared?

                       (left to right : Sergei Shoigu, Valery Gerasimo, Nikolai Patrushev, Viktor Zolotov)

                     (left to right: Sergey Naryshkin, Sergei Lavrov, Valentina Matviyenko, Alexander Bortnikov)

Are they prepared to risk their lives, and the lives of their families, for Putin?

In the words of Zelensky,

"You [the US, EU, and the UK] have to phone us .. to our people .. who lost their children and say "Sorry .. We didn't do it yesterday" 

(to be continued)

Putin is now 'dangerously' angry ...

 AlJazerra reports that,

"Russian forces are facing setbacks in their invasion of Ukraine, US intelligence officials have said, stressing that President Vladimir Putin’s plan to install a puppet government in Kyiv is unlikely to succeed amid fierce Ukrainian resistance.
...
During a congressional hearing on Tuesday, the heads of United States intelligence agencies told lawmakers that despite the issues with the invasion, Putin is likely to escalate the conflict in the coming weeks." (AlJazeera : 8 March 2022) (my emphasis)

This assesment comes on top of US President Biden's announcement that the US if placing a FULL embargo on Putin's oil exports to the US.

As reported by the BBC News,

"The US and UK are banning Russian oil and the EU is ending its reliance on Russian gas, stepping up the economic response to the invasion of Ukraine.
...
US President Joe Biden said the move targeted "the main artery of Russia's economy".
...
Energy exports are a vital source of revenue for Russia but the move is also likely to impact Western consumers." (BBC News : 9 March 2022) (my emphasis)

Even more significantly, as reported by Matt McGrath (left),

"As countries scramble to reduce their reliance on Russia's oil and gas in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine, few places are as exposed as the European Union.
...
But moving with a speed few thought possible, the EU has now laid out a strategy that could cut reliance on this fuel source by two thirds within a year.

...
The REPowerEU plan aims to make Europe independent of Russian fossil fuels by 2030, but the initial efforts focus solely on gas.
...
"It's hard, bloody hard," said EU Commission vice president Frans Timmermans.
...
"But it's possible if we're willing to go further and faster than we've done before."
.,.
The plan envisages ending reliance on all Russian fossil fuels "well before" 2030." (BBC News : 8 March 2022) (my emphasis)

Putin is now angry .... very angry .... 

As William Burns, former director of the CIA, reported to the US Senate yesterday (8 March 2022),

"I think Putin is angry and frustrated right now ...  He is likely to double down and try to grind down the Ukrainian military with no regard for civilian casualties. But the challenge that he faces now [ ...] ... He has no sustainable political endgame ..."(MSNBC : March 9 2022) (my emphasis)

The international public is now becoming critically aware of the real international danger posed by an angry Putin.

Putin is now in control of the Chernobyl nuclear site, and of the functioning nuclear plant at  Zaporizhzhia.

As reported by Mehdi Hasan,

"There have been many questions raised about Russia's strategy in this war. But one thing that has become clear is that Moscow is paying particular interest to Ukraine's nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhia" (MSNBC : 9 March 2022) (my emphasis)

As also reported by Lawrence O'Donnell,

"Even though he's talking about nuclear weapons in this way, his actions do not indicate any actual change", 

to which Robin Wright, New Yorker columnist, responded,

"The big question, Lawrence, is whether this was an epic bluff [Putin threatening to use nuclear weapons], whether it reflected Russia's weakness rather than its strength. But the challenge for Putin now is he's not doing well in Ukraine, and if he's going to try and seize the country the danger is he's going to try things that are unconventional ... unexpected ... as his invasion was .."  (MSNBC : 9 March 2022) (my emphasis)

Putin is now 'dangerously' angry ...

 STOP PRESS @ 18.43 9 March 2022

Gordon Corera (left) has just reported that,

"Western officials have said they are "very concerned" about the risk of escalation in the war between Russia and Ukraine.
...
They are particularly concerned about the possibility of Russia using non-conventional weapons, they say.
...
This most likely refers to chemical weapons although the term also covers tactical (small-scale) nuclear weapons, biological weapons and dirty bombs.
...
"We've got good reason to be concerned," said one Western official.
...
Officials also pointed to some of the disinformation and claims coming from Russia as potentially "setting the scene" for some kind of "false flag" claim that the Ukrainians had used them - or developed weapons." (BBC News : 18.47  9 March 2020) (my emphasis)

(to be continued)

A politically and militarily cornered Putin, and a "local nuclear" strike

Mike Eckel has released on Twitter a translated letter from an FSB analyst.  

Events now being reported by UK Defence officials seem to support much of what is written in this letter.

As reported by the BBC,

"UK defence officials have said they believe Russian forces made minimal gains over the past 48 hours, with its troops remaining bogged down by stiff Ukrainian resistance and poor logistical support.
...
In a daily intelligence report published by the Ministry of Defence, officials said it is "highly unlikely that Russia has successfully achieved its planned objectives to date".
...
It comes as the Chief of the UK's Defence Staff, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, told the BBC that Russian troops had been failing to operate "in a competent fashion", and this was "impacting on morale".
...
He added that "those that have been leading the fight for Russia have suffered just terrible losses" since the invasion began. (BBC News :7 March 2022) (my emphasis)

The Twitter feed of Mike Eckel contains images of the letter. 

"Mike Eckel
@Mike_Eckel
this is purportedly a letter leaked by an FSB analyst about the Ukraine war, as published by a well-known Russian whistleblower. It is is very detailed, and very dark: among other things, says the war has to be finished by  June because by then, Russia's economy will be nothing"

 IMAGES OF LETTER: Please download and enlarge to read.

 

What also seems to support the veracity of the contents of this letter are the facts that :-

 

(1) As reported by Rachel Russell,

"Air Marshal Philip Osborn, a former chief of defence intelligence and director at Universal Defence and Security Solutions, said: "Putin's in a corner over the conflict in Ukraine. But that brings with it all kinds of risks as his options are not nearly as clear as they were at the start."
...
"He just can't hold that country. I think any nation who thinks it's going to hold a country of 40 million-plus people who just don't want you there regardless of the size is killing themselevs" (Sky News : 6 March 2022) (my emphasis)

(2) As also reported by the BBC,

"US has reportedly given Zelensky secure hotline to Biden
...
According to the Times, personnel from US Cyber Command based in the US and Germany are providing intelligence from satellite imagery and electronic intercepts to the Ukrainian military within "an hour or two" of being collected.
...
The US has also supplied Ukrainian President Zelensky with encrypted communications equipment, enabling him to call Biden on a secure line, reports the Times. On Saturday, Zelensky held a 35-minute phone call with Biden.
...
On Thursday, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said the US was sharing intelligence with Ukraine "in real time". No further details were given." (BBC News : 7 March 2022) (my emphasis)

And then there is the sudden volte face of Germany.

(3) As reported by MSN (Reuters)  a week ago,

"Germany will supply Ukraine with 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 Stinger surface-to-air missiles from Bundeswehr stocks so it can defend itself against Russia, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Saturday.
...
"The Russian invasion of Ukraine marks a turning point. It is our duty to do our best to support Ukraine in defending itself against Putin's invading army," Scholz said on Twitter." (MSN (Reuters) : February 27 2022) (my emphasis)

(4) Also of high significance, as reported by AlJazeera,

"Turkey warns against passing of warships from its straits
...
Ankara says it is implementing a 1936 pact on naval passage between Mediterranean and Black Sea during war times.

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu (left) has said that his country warned the international community about passing of warships through the country’s straits since the war between Russia and Ukraine started. 

Under the 1936 Montreux Convention, Turkey has control over the Dardanelles and Bosphorus straits that connect the Mediterranean and Black Sea, and can limit the passage of warships during wartime or if threatened." (AlJazeera : 1 March 2022) (my emphasis)

(5) But critically, as reported by Ted Kemp, Chloe Taylor, Lauren Feiner,

"President Vladimir Putin was “forced to deny reports” that his government will impose martial law in order to stamp out Russian dissent against the war in Ukraine, according to the U.K. Defence Ministry.
....
Putin made the denial at an event in Moscow on Saturday local time. Rumors of impending martial law have swirled in Russia for days as the Kremlin tries to control opposition to the war in Ukraine.
....
Putin on Friday approved changes to Russian law that impose prison sentences of up to 15 years for “fake” news about the war in Ukraine." (CNBC : 6 March 2022) (my emphasis)

BBC Report:

"More than 4,300 people were detained at anti-war protests across Russia on Sunday, rights groups and Russian authorities say." (BBC News : 6 March 2022)
 

As the letter from the FSB analyst points out :-

A sinking Putin ...  In the words of the FSB analyst, "Is there the possibility of a local nuclear strike? Yes. Not for military puropses (nothing will not give - this is a weapon of defense breakthrough), but in order to intimidate others"

(to be continued)