A dangerous Putin is running out of time

The siege of Mariupol, and the criminal and inhuman devastation of that city by Putin will, as Ukraine's President, Volodomyr Zelensky, says,

“To do this to a peaceful city, what the occupiers did, is a terror that will be remembered for centuries to come,” he said. (BBC News : 20 March 2022) (my emphasis)

 As reported by BBC News,

"Ukraine's deputy prime minister has accused Russia of committing acts of "genocide" during its invasion of her country.
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Speaking on Sky's Sophy Ridge programme, Olha Stefanishyna (right) said she "absolutely believes" that acts of genocide have been committed by the Russian regime, and said that President Vladimir Putin and leaders in the Kremlin "are war criminals". (BBC News : 20 March 2022) (my emphasis)

And whilst the people of Mariupol were been systematically slaughtered, including children, Putin held a rally in Moscow in which he exhorted the crowd to,

"... namely to liberate the people [in the Donbas territories that he invaded in 2014 and, in the case of Ukraine's Crimea, annexed into the Russian Federation] from this genocide, of these sufferings,... this is the main reason, motive, and goal of the military operation which we have launched in the Donbass and Ukraine. This is what the goal is." (Global News : YouTube : 19 March 2022)

It is against this backdrop that the current diplomatic frenzy to convene Peace Talks is, in the eyes of many, yet another Putin ploy to continue his "razing Ukrainian cities to the ground" strategy, as evidenced by what is, at this very minute, happening in Mariupol and many other cities around Ukraine.

As reported by Dave Lawler,

"The outlines of a potential deal to end the war in Ukraine are coming into focus, but sources on the Ukrainian side tell Axios they fear Moscow's newfound enthusiasm for diplomacy is a ruse." (Axios : 17 March 2020) (my emphasis)

British Foreign Secretary, Liz Truss (left), is even more explicit. 

As reported by Markus Parekh,

"Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said on Friday that she fears peace talks between Russia and Ukraine are being used as a "smokescreen" by the Kremlin to allow forces to regroup.
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In an interview with The Times, Ms Truss said: "If a country is serious about negotiations, it doesn't indiscriminately bomb civilians that day."
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The minister said she was "very sceptical" about the negotiations, and added: "What we've seen is an attempt to create space for the Russians to regroup."
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"We don't see any serious withdrawal of Russian troops or any serious proposals on the table." (The Telegraph : 19 March 2022) (my emphasis)

Which brings into sharp focus Xi Jinping, President of China.

Recall that in my blog entry of (15 March), I wrote that,

"[A]s reported by The Guardian (Reuters),

"Joe Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan (right), who is due to meet China’s top diplomat, Yang Jiechi, in Rome on Monday, warned on Sunday that Beijing will “absolutely” face consequences if it helps Moscow evade sanctions over the invasion of Ukraine.
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The White House national security council declined to comment, however, on reports that Russia has asked China for military equipment since its invasion of Ukraine on 24 February.
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The Financial Times, Washington Post and New York Times reported the request on Sunday, citing US officials." (The Guardian : 13 March 2022) (my emphasis) ( video: MSNBC (YouTube) : 15 March 2022) (cf also: The White House : Briefing Room : 18 March 2022)

David Dodwell outlines why President Xi Jinping is worried about sanctions against China.

"Nick Lardy, China expert at the Washington-based Peterson Institute for International Economics, estimates that China's trade jumped from around US$4.6 trillion in 2020 to US$6.05 trillion last year - accounting for about 17 per cent of trade worldwide. Up to last September, China also accounted for 19 per cent of global investment, he estimates.
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Aligning with a reckless and isolated Putin would jeopardise all this amid rising anxiety over the recessionary and inflationary effects of the pandemic. As Lardy noted, "having a significant portion of the Chinese economy subjected to Western sanctions is a risk that President Xi [ ...] is not likely to take". (MSN News : 18 March 2022) (my emphasis)

As Yukon Huang (left) also explains,

" ... Beijing would seem unlikely or incapable of coming to Moscow’s rescue. UN data indicates that China exported only about $70 billion of goods to Russia in 2021, while exports to the EU and United States totaled over $1 trillion. Beijing will not want to lose access to Western markets by violating the sanctions." (Carnegie Endowment : 16 March 2022) (my emphasis)

President Xi Jinping may, indeed, not risk having the Chinese economy subjected to Western sanctions.

These are the cold hard facts that President Xi Jinping has to contend with.

There is now also a growing consensus internationally that all is not quite well with Putin.

As reported by Rebecca Jones (right),

"Intelligence sources have also suggested Putin's "bloated face" could be potential side effects of prolonged use of steroids.
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Citing sources close to the Kremlin, senior figures from Australia, New Zealand, the UK and the US, believe there is a physiological explanation for his globally reviled decision to invade Ukraine.
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"There has been an identifiable change in his decision-making over the past five years or so.
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"Those around him see a marked change in the cogency and clarity of what he says and how he perceives the world around him." (Express : 14 March 2022) (my emphasis)

As also reported by Imogen Braddick and Katie Davis,

"It's thought the Russian leader's decision to invade Ukraine might have been sparked by not only his unhinged mental state, but also by a worrying physical health condition. 

Putin has appeared notably more bloated around the face and neck in recent weeks - suggesting he might be undergoing treatment with steroids for a health condition.

It was also reported visitors to the Kremlin had to walk through an elaborate disinfectant-spraying tunnel.
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Therefore, many have been left puzzled as to why he would take such a huge gamble on taking over the whole of Ukraine in one go - unless he was unwell and had limited time.
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It increases the suspicion that perhaps his physical health means he is running out of time. " (The Sun : 4 March 2022) (my emphasis) (cf also: BBC News : 20 March 2022)

(to be continued)