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Thursday, 24 March 2022

Now at his most dangerous, Putin has no political "wiggle room" left to 'save face'.

There is an old English saying, "The Worm Has Turned".

This saying is used to describe when a person or group of people who have been treated badly for a long time suddenly become forceful and stop accepting a difficult situation. (Cambridge Dictionary).

We are now beginning to hear that 'all is not well' amongst Putin's 'siloviki'.

As reported by Lawrence O'Donnell ,

"Tonight there are growing signs of dissention in the ranks of the inner circle surrounding Russia dictator Vladimir Putin. The Kremlin is confirming today that Anatoly Chubais (right), [ ... ] has stepped down from his role as Moscow's Climate Envoy, making him the highest ranking official to break with Putin over the invasion of Ukraine. Multiple outlets are now reporting that he has left the country ..." (MSNBC : 24 March 2022) (my emphasis)

Besides Anatoly Chubais, who oversaw the privatization of Russia's industry during the Yeltsin regime, we now also learn that none other than the defence minister Sergei Shoigu, who has described Ukrainians as “non-humans”, now also finds himself out in the cold.

As reported by Will Stewart and Alahna Kindred,

"Vladimir Putin's defence minister has vanished with "heart problems" as the Kremlin's war effort in Ukraine stalls.
...
Sergei Shoigu (left) has not been seen for 12 days and old footage or pictures have been shown of him on TV, say reports in opposition" (The Mirror : 23 March 2022) (my emphasis)

MSNBC : 26 March 2022: YouTube

 And it has now also emerged that,

"Russia’s highly regarded central bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina (right) sought to resign after Vladimir Putin ordered an invasion of Ukraine, only to be told by the president to stay, according to four people with knowledge of the discussions.
...
Some central bank officials describe a state of hopelessness in the weeks since the invasion, feeling trapped in an institution that they fear will have little use for their market-oriented skills and experience as Russia is cut off from the world. At one point, the pace of departures was intense enough that the IT department was short of hands to terminate accounts." (Bloomberg : 23 March 2022) (my emphasis)

Amongst other developments, as revealed by Andrei Soldatov to Isaac Chotiner (right),

  • Putin publicly berated the director of the S.V.R., [Sergey Naryshkin] the foreign-intelligence agency (cf also: Business Insider, The Guardian , amongst numerous other reports)
  • Two and a half weeks later, we got news about the F.S.B. foreign-intelligence branch, because the F.S.B. also has a foreign-intelligence branch coming under attack. We now know about two people, two top-level officials at this department, being questioned and placed under house arrest.
  • the deputy head of the National Guard [ ... ] was detained, the official version is that he was just asked to resign (The New Yorker : 22 March 2022) (my emphasis)
And against this backdrop of turmoil, arrests, and resignations, Nebi Qena and Cara Anna report that,

"NATO estimated on Wednesday that 7,000 to 15,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in four weeks of war in Ukraine, where fierce resistance from the country’s defenders has denied Moscow the lightning victory it sought.
...
By way of comparison, Russia lost about 15,000 troops over 10 years in Afghanistan." (AP News : 24 March 2022) (my emphasis)

As explained to Lawrence O'Donnell by Phillips O'Brien, Strategic Studies Professor at the University of St. Andrews,
 
" Lawrence O'Donnell : "What do you see as the military status of the war .. "
 
  Phillips O'Brian : "The fundamental problems the Russians are facing is that they have started a campaign with no idea what they were taking on and they don't seem able to admit what they have done " (MSNBC : 23 March 2022) (my emphasis) (cf also: DW : YouTube : 23 March 2022)
 
 
Now the Moscow Times informs us that,
 
"Russia will force Europe to start paying for gas supplies in rubles, President Vladimir Putin said Wednesday in televised remarks.
...
“I have decided to implement a set of measures to transfer payments for our gas supplies to unfriendly countries into Russian rubles,” Putin said, ordering the changes to be implemented within a week." (Moscow Times : 23 March 2022) (my emphasis)
 
No doubt this ploy of Putin is to try and support the exchange value of the Ruble.

This sudden change towards Rubles as payment may also have been brought about by the fact that,

"The lines for sugar in Saratov were hard not to compare to the Soviet era, part of a recent run on Russian staples that have revived fears that the Kremlin’s invasion in Ukraine will lead to a virtual slide back to the shortages or endless queues of the Soviet Union
[.....]
More worryingly, medicines such as insulin have begun disappearing from pharmacy shelves. Some polls have indicated that Russian doctors are facing shortages of more than 80 medicines at pharmacies, including insulin and a popular children’s anti-inflammation medicine." (Andrew Roth : The Guardian : 23 March 2022) (my emphasis)
 
 
All of which underscores US President Biden's assertion that,

"President Biden on Wednesday warned there is a "real threat" that Russian President Vladimir Putin could use chemical weapons against Ukraine.

“I think it’s a real threat,” Biden said when asked about his level of concern about Putin's use of chemical weapons." (Alex Gangitano : The Hill : 23 March 2022) (my emphasis)

Today US President Biden will be attending a full day's meeting at NATO headquarters in Brussels.
 
 
"President Biden arrived Thursday at NATO headquarters in Brussels for a full day of emergency meetings aimed at stopping Russia’s war in Ukraine — and keeping the military alliance unified in efforts to pressure Moscow as the war enters its second month." (MSN (Washington Post) : 24 March 2022) (my emphasis)
 
It now remains to be seen what will ultimately emerge out of this NATO meeting.
 
And as members of his 'siloviki' begin to abandon the sinking ship of Putin's fatal and misguided invasion of Ukraine, and with  his General of the Russian Army, Sergei Shoigu, now incommunicado, Putin simply has no political "wiggle room" to 'save face'

(to be continued)

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