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Tuesday, 22 March 2022

Would Putin, in his current state of mind, accept a stalemate and start negotiations?

If there is perhaps one singular fact that gives the lie to Putin's constant refrain in his second war with Ukraine being motivated by the so-called "de-nazification" of Ukraine then it is the death of Boris Romantschenko, aged 96, who survived in the Buchenwald Concentration Camp from 1942 to1945.

As reported by the BBC,

"A Ukrainian man who survived the Nazi Holocaust during World War Two has been killed during a Russian attack on the eastern city of Kharkiv.
...
Boris Romantschenko, 96, died during Russian shelling of his apartment block on Friday, relatives said. (BBC News : 21 March 2022) (my emphasis)

At the same time, as reported by Mark Nicol,

"A pro-Kremlin Russian tabloid said nearly 10,000 Russian soldiers have died fighting in Ukraine before quickly scrubbing the casualty figure from its website.
...
Komsomolskaya Pravda on Sunday published a story citing Russian Defense Ministry officials who disputed casualty numbers reported by their Ukrainian counterparts. However, the story was changed after its initial publication with the number deleted, indicating that tight controls remain on information available to the Russian public concerning the war." (Mail Online : 22 March 2022) (my emphasis) (cf. also: Jake Thomas : Newsweek : 21 March 2022)

As also reported by EuroMaidan,

"In intercepted phone calls with relatives, Russian soldiers admit they shell civilians and loot shops; they also say they were sent to Ukraine as cannon fodder or that command abandoned them. They admit heavy losses in Ukraine: some want to retreat or desert and describe disappointment, others are quite indifferent and ready to continue the fight.

 Soldier: “No food, no water… One package of field food for the two of us and that’s all. Yesterday there was heavy shelling. We lost one vehicle and the Kamaz with ammunition and food. No sense to remain here. No ammunition, no fuel…(EuroMaidan : 21 March 2022) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile, Putin now threatens to break off diplomatic relations with the US because US President Biden refered to him as a "war criminal".

As US Deputy Secretary of State, Wendy Sherman (left), explains,

"I think that we all have seen what we have seen, we know what's happening, and Vladimir Putin is reponsible" (MSNBC : 21 March 2022) (my emphasis) 


Interviewer Andrea Mitchel also asked Wendy Sherman what the US would do if Putin starts to use chemical weapons against Ukrainians. (cf also: Arpan Rai and Tom Batchelor : The Independent : 22 March 2022)

Wendy Sherman responded,

"Well this will certainly be on the agenda when the President travels to Brussels later this week, and then on to Poland. He will be meeting with NATO allies, with the European Council, and with the G7, and our concern about the use of chemical and biological weapons will certainly be on that agenda [ ..... ] and the President has said, Secretary Blinken has said .. we have all said in our discussions with the media, that there will be severe costs to Russia a should they take such horrible action." (ibid Wendy Sherman)

 (ibid Arpan Rai and Tom Batchelor : 22 March 2022)


This concern of the West, that Putin may now use chemical and biological weapons, stem partly from reports that :-

  • Russians are starting to feel the economic pinch after Western countries imposed an unprecedented set of sanctions over Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. (AlJazeera: 17 March 2022) (my emphasis)
  • Russia has requested Chinese MREs (Meals, Ready-to-Eat) in a move that “underscores the basic logistical challenges” the Russians have been experiencing, according to CNN, which “raises questions about the fundamental readiness of the Russian military.” (Task and Purpose : 15 March 2022) (my emphasis)
  • Vladimir Putin’s troops are also said to be running low on ammunition and food, with Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence stating that Russia has supplies that will last “no more than three days”. (Emily Ferguson : MSN News : 22 March 2022) (my emphasis)
  • Ukrainian military are reporting that a company that produces and repairs Russian tanks has suspended work at its plant in the central Russian region of Chelyabinsk due to a shortage of imported parts [.....] "due to the lack of receipts of foreign-made components" (BBC News : 22 March 2022) (my emphasis)   
In the words of US President Biden,

"US President Joe Biden has given his strongest warning yet that Russia may be preparing to use chemical and biological weapons in Ukraine ...Biden says Russian leader Vladimir Putin has "his back to the wall" as a result of Ukrainian resistance, and there was a danger he could resort to more severe tactics" ((BBC News : 22 March 2022) (my emphasis)

As also reported by Joseph Choi (right),

"The war between Russia and Ukraine is nearing a stalemate, with neither side nearing victory or willing to give in, according to a NATO intelligence official.
...
Speaking to NBC News, the unnamed NATO official said, “If we’re not in a stalemate, we are rapidly approaching one." (The Hill : 21 March 2022) (my emphasis)

Former US Ambassador to Russia, Michael McFaul believes that,

"A stalemate would be a fantastic outcome because wars end in two ways Ari ... either one side wins or a stalemate ... And a stalemate creates the permissive conditions ... I would say the pre-conditions ... for an actual negotiated settlement .." (MSNBC : 22 March 2022) (my emphasis)

The $64 question is :-

"Would Putin, in his current state of mind, accept a stalemate and start negotiations?"

(to be continued)

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