Zelensky should beware of the gifts that Pompeo will be offering to him.

Two days ago (29/1/2020) I wrote that,

"If , and this is a BIG 'If''..., if it is the case that Putin is changing his strategic policy towards Ukraine, of what real value will to-morrow's meeting between Pompeo and Zelensky be?


Indeed, what would Pompeo and Zelensky have to talk about except for Zelensky to, 'keep his mouth shut' about that July call between Trump and himself last year, and also 'to keep under wraps' any evidence Ukraine may unravel about Trump's associates spying on Marie Yovanovich (left), the former US ambassador to Ukraine?"

We now have the answer. 

Pompeo's visit to Ukraine is essentially to 'buy' Zelensky's tacit support for Trump, notwithstanding the fact that Trump publicly praised the fact that Pompeo, in his interview with NPR reporter  Mary Louise Kelley stated that 'Americans don’t f****** care about Ukraine'.  (full text of interview)

NBC News : 30 January 2020

As reported by Kaitlan Collins, Phil Mattingly and Jennifer Hansler,

"The White House will propose keeping security assistance for Ukraine at current levels when it releases its budget next week after initially considering a massive cut to the program, according to multiple people familiar with the discussions.
...
The administration was planning to propose dropping the State Department Foreign Military Financing (FMF) level to roughly the same level as its past budget proposals of $20 million, according to two people familiar with the discussions. That would be far below the enacted level of $115 million, which has strong bipartisan support on Capitol Hill. The White House will release its 2021 budget request on February 10.

Those plans were dropped on Thursday without explanation." (CNN : 30 January 2020) (my emphasis)

As also reported by Andrew Roth (right),

"The discussions [between Pompeo and Zelensky] are likely to cover bilateral relations and Ukraine’s conflict with Russia, gas politics and the US’s sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, possible investment opportunities and the progress of reforms in Ukraine. Pompeo is also scheduled to meet with Ukraine’s foreign and defence ministers, as well as representatives of Ukraine’s religious, civil society, and business communities." (The Guardian : 30 January 2020) (my emphasis)

This sudden reinstatement of the full US military financing for Ukraine that Trump has, over the last three years, whittled down as his 'quid pro quo' with Putin during the 2016 US presidential elections, started as early as July of 2016 at the Republican National Security Committee.

As I wrote in my blog entry of (19/7/2016),

" ... [A]t last week’s Republican National Security Committee platform meeting in Cleveland, Josh Rogin (left) reports that,

"The Trump campaign worked behind the scenes last week to make sure the new Republican platform won’t call for giving weapons to Ukraine to fight Russian and rebel forces, contradicting the view of almost all Republican foreign policy leaders in Washington." (Washington Post : July 18, 2016) (my emphasis)

He further reported that, 

Diana Denman (right), a platform committee member from Texas, had proposed at the Republican National Security Committee platform meeting in Cleveland,

".... a platform amendment that would call for maintaining or increasing sanctions against Russia, increasing aid for Ukraine and “providing lethal defensive weapons” to the Ukrainian military.

 Let us also remind ourselves that,

"Throughout the [2016 US presidential] campaign, Trump has been dismissive of calls for supporting the Ukraine government as it fights an ongoing Russian-led intervention." (ibid Denman) (my emphasis)

So Zelensky should be under no illusion that Trump, if re-elected as US president in November of this year, will have absolutely no qualms in reneging on any promises that Pompeo may offer him during their meeting today.

Zelensky should beware of the gifts that Pompeo will be offering to him. 

(to be continued)

Putin is laying down a snare for Zelensky.

Oliver Carroll reports that,

"Pompeo (left) heads to Kiev, days after saying ‘Americans don’t f****** care about Ukraine’"
.....
Ahead of Mr Pompeo’s trip, speculation has centred on what message the secretary of state may deliver from Mr Trump when he meets with Mr Zelensky, ministers and other civic society leaders." (The Independent : 29 January 2020) (my emphasis) (cf also: Nick Allen : Daily Telegraph: 25 Jan. 2020)

Pompeo's statement that, 'Americans don’t f****** care about Ukraine' occurred after an interview that he had with NPR reporter Mary Louise Kelley (right). (full text of interview)

CNN : 28 January 2020

Now recall that in my last blog entry (23/1/2020) I wrote that,

"It is therefore no co-incidence that Mike Pompeo , US Secretary of State, whom we learn was also 'in on the act' to shake down Zelensky, is now scurrying off to Kyiv presumably, according to Ivan Yakovina,

".... one reason for Pompeo’s trip could be to make sure that “no bad surprises would come from Kyiv during the Trump Senate trial.”(Christopher Miller (left): BuzzFeed : 22 January 2020) (my emphasis)

Given the rather parlous state of Trump's defense team arguments at the currently ongoing Senate impeachment trial of Trump, one can only wonder at how Zelensky will respond to Pompeo during their meeting to-morrow knowing that Pompeo's 'mind-set' about Ukraine revolves around his belief that, 'Americans don’t f****** care about Ukraine'.

We also do not know if the recently proposed meeting between Zelensky and Putin in Israel during the Holocaust Memorial ceremonies actually took place. (cf. UNIAN : 22 January 2020)

What is interesting to note, as observed by Anders Åslund (right), is that,

"Putin has already had repeated contacts with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. He [Putin] is now likely to intensify his diplomatic endeavors [regarding his war with Ukraine]." (The Atlantic Council: 27 January 2020) (my emphasis)

These diplomatic efforts by Putin, according to Anders Åslund, are signified by the fact that,

"... there are indications that a major policy change towards Ukraine may be underway following reports that Putin has replaced his chief troublemaker Vladislav Surkov as Ukraine policy curator with trusted problem solver Dmitry Kozak." (ibid Anders Åslund)

If , and this is a BIG 'If''..., if it is the case that Putin is changing his strategic policy towards Ukraine, of what real value will to-morrow's meeting between Pompeo and Zelensky be?

Indeed, what would Pompeo and Zelensky have to talk about except for Zelensky to, 'keep his mouth shut' about that July call between Trump and himself last year, and also 'to keep under wraps' any evidence Ukraine may unravel about Trump's associates spying on Marie Yovanovich (left), the former US ambassador to Ukraine?
  
Putin is laying down a snare for Zelensky.

By changing his strategic policy towards Ukraine Putin hopes that Zelensky will begin to distance himself from the current US administration and shift towards Dmitry Kozak, Putin's ostensible 'problem solver'.

As Anders Åslund writes,

"Surkov’s apparent replacement Dmitry Kozak (right) has been close to Putin for many years, holding a series of senior positions without ever falling out of favor. As a lawyer, he has been Putin’s point man for constitutional and international legal matters." (ibid Anders Åslund)

It is therefore no co-incidence that Dmitry Kozak's  replacement of Surkov in Ukraine comes on the heels of Putin stating at his recent annual state-of-the-nation speech that,

"I really do think that the time has come to introduce certain changes to the country's main law that will directly guarantee the Russian constitution is the priority in our legal space," Putin said.

"This means that the demands of international legislation and treaties, and also the decisions of international bodies can only apply to Russia's territory when they do not entail restricting human and citizens' rights and freedoms, and do not contradict our constitution." (Moscow Times : 15 January 2020) (my emphasis)

Dmitry Kozak will be laying down Putin's 'legal' foundation stone for incorporating the Donbas area that his soldiers and proxies currently control into the Russian legal space.

Zelensky now has to make a choice.

Keep either Putin or Pompeo at arm's length.

 

(to be continued)

Of what real value will a meeting in Israel between Zelensky and Putin really be?

The noose is tightening around Trump's neck as the impeachment proceedings in the US Senate bombards Senators with an avalanche of evidence of Trump trying to 'shake down' Zelensky in July of last year.

 Youtube : 22 Jan. 2020

It is therefore no co-incidence that Mike Pompeo (left), US Secretary of State, whom we learn was also 'in on the act' to shake down Zelensky, is now scurrying off to Kyiv presumably, according to Ivan Yakovina,

".... one reason for Pompeo’s trip could be to make sure that “no bad surprises would come from Kyiv during the Trump Senate trial.”

“I mean no word-to-word transcripts of the relevant phone calls or other documents will leak,” he said. “If I were him I would assure the Ukrainians that they will be rewarded if nothing unexpected happens during the trial. And punished if comrade Trump’s enemies will get some sort of help or comfort from Kyiv.” (Christopher Miller (right): BuzzFeed : 22 January 2020) (my emphasis)

And as Trump's impeachment trial progresses, UNIAN reports that,

"Mortality at checkpoints set up along the line of contact between the warring sides in eastern Ukraine's Donbas in 2019 increased by 40% year-on-year. ... In 2018, nine people died at checkpoints across Donetsk region, and 15 people – in the past year." (UNIAN : 22 January 2020) (my emphasis)
 
This singular statistic indicates that Putin is far from trying to resolve his war with Ukraine.


As also stated by Edi Rama (right), current OSCE Chairperson-in-Office,

"The resumption of dialogue and the outcomes of the Normandy summit are steps in the right direction. Nevertheless, there is much more to be done. It is a long road ahead to lasting peace." (UNIAN : 22 January 2020) (my emphasis)

With this in mind, one wonders whether the possible meeting between Putin and Zelensky at the Holocaust memorial meetings in Israel on 23 January will be of any value in Putin moving towards resolving his war with Ukraine. (cf: UNIAN 22 january 2020)

Added to which Ulrich Oehme, of the proto-Nazi far-right AfD, Germany's largest opposition party in the Bundestag which supports Putin,

"... put forward an offer [at the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE)] to include "DPR-LPR" representatives into the Normandy Four talks." (UNIAN : 23 January 2020) (my emphasis)

to the utter delight of Putin.

As Der Spiegel reported in April of last year,

"The AfD, which was founded six years ago as a euro-skeptic party, has proved to be a stroke of luck for Putin. It shares the Russian president's goal of attacking the establishment. Putin wants to break the West's power by driving a wedge through it.
...
The Russian leadership sees the biggest opposition party in the Germany parliament, the Bundestag, as an ally in the war against "degenerate Europe," as neo-fascist ideologue Alexander Dugin (right) once described it." (Der Spiegel : 12 April 2019) (my emphasis)

So we have to ask ourselves,

"Of what real value will a meeting in Israel between Zelensky and Putin really be?"

(to be continued)

How will Zelensky deal with Putin's 'voting' Trojan Horse in the occupied Donbas?

The die has been cast.

President Donald Trump finds himself standing in the dock of impeachment because of that fateful call between himself and Zelensky in July of last year.

BBC 19 Dec 2019

No-one could have predicted that the scarlet thread of the Maidan Revolution of Dignity in 2014, that led to the overthrow of  Viktor Yanukovich, would six years later take centre stage in the impeachment trial of Donald Trump.

  BBC 20 January 2020

And as the impeachment trial of Trump readies itself in the US Senate, Putin is busying himself with setting the stage for his continued control over Russia, even after his current presidential term.

As reported by the BBC,

"Russia's government has resigned, hours after President Vladimir Putin proposed sweeping constitutional changes that could prolong his stay in power.

If approved by the public, the proposals would transfer power from the presidency to parliament.

Mr Putin is due to step down in 2024 when his fourth term of office comes to an end." (BBC: 15 January 2020) (my emphasis)

  MSNBC: 16 January 2020

 

What signals a real danger for Ukraine in Putin's recent annual state-of-the-nation speech was his pronouncement that,

""I really do think that the time has come to introduce certain changes to the country's main law that will directly guarantee the Russian constitution is the priority in our legal space," Putin said.

"This means that the demands of international legislation and treaties, and also the decisions of international bodies can only apply to Russia's territory when they do not entail restricting human and citizens' rights and freedoms, and do not contradict our constitution." (Moscow Times : 15 January 2020) (my emphasis)

In other words, Putin's proposed changes will, at a stroke, remove Ukraine's Crimea from falling within the jurisprudence of International law and thus nullify any demands of Ukraine that Crimea be returned to Ukraine.

Neither was Ukraine's Donbas area controlled by Putin's Russian soldiers and proxies out of his sights.

In Putin's own words,

“Our historical responsibility is not only to get out of the demographic trap, but also ensure sustainable natural population growth by the middle of the coming decade.” (ibid Moscow Times) 

Ukraine's Donbas is part of Putin's plan "to get out of the demographic trap". His showering of Russian passports on the people of Ukraine's Donbas controlled by his Russia soldiers and proxies is the first salvo in his attempt to get out of the Russian demographic trap by simply incorporating Ukrainians into his demographic plans.

As reported by Toma Istomina (left),

"Eight months after simplifying the procedure of acquiring a Russian passport for residents of Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, Russia announced that it has granted over 196,000 citizenships to Ukrainians.

The figures came from the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Russian TASS news agency reported on Jan. 1." (Kyiv Post : 2 January 2020) (my emphasis)

Is it therefore any wonder that, suddenly, that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov (right), recently announced that,

""We hope the decisions adopted in Paris in December will allow us to move along the path of implementing the Minsk package of measures." (UNIAN : 17 January 2020) (my emphasis)

In particular, Lavrov was referring to the holding of elections in the occupied Donbas.

After all, Putin believes he now has 196,000 Russian Donbas votes 'in the bag', so to speak.
Therefore even the facts that,

• Ukraine put forward a new condition for holding the elections in Donbas, namely the return of IDPs and their participation in the vote and
• the Ukrainian side emphasized that elections could only be held when the borders of Ukraine were again completely under its control or that of international observers, (ibid UNIAN)

 Lavrov seems nonplussed by these conditions knowing that those 196,000 'Russian' votes will support whatever Putin wishes be put on any ballot paper during the elections in Ukraine's occupied Donbas.

If, therefore, Putin agrees to Ukraine's President Zelensky's 'conditions' for holding elections in the occupied Donbas, will Zelensky simply ignore the 'Trojan Horse' of 196,000 'Russian votes' that have already been cast even before those elections are held?

How will Zelensky deal with this 'voting' Trojan Horse of Putin in the occupied Donbas?   
      

(to be continued)

How will Zelensky handle his upcoming meeting with Pompeo?

The end of year celebrations are over, and the new year is upon us.

In his attempt to stave off his impending impeachment trial in the US Senate, Trump has brought the world to the brink of a dangerous war between the US and Iran.

In 2011, Trump predicted that the then US president, Barak Obama,

" ... would attack Iran in order to win a second term. Trump followed this notion up at other points in 2011 and 2012." (MSNBC : 3 Jan 2019)  (my emphasis)

It is rather ironic that this is now precisely what Trump, himself, is doing, to the utter consternation of many leaders around the world.

Is it therefore any wonder that Putinversteher Merkel and Putin will be meeting on 11 January,

"... to discuss pressing issues on the international agenda, including the situation in Syria and Libya, as well as the escalation of tensions in the Middle East following a U.S. airstrike at Baghdad's airport on January 3..." (UNIAN : 6 January 2020) (my emphasis)

as well as,

"... also touch upon the settlement of the situation in eastern Ukraine, in particular regarding the implementation of the Minsk agreements and arrangements reached at the Normandy Four summit held in Paris December 9." (ibid UNIAN 6 Jan 2020)

also touch upon the settlement of the situation in eastern Ukraine, in particular regarding the implementation of the Minsk agreements and arrangements reached at the Normandy Four summit held in Paris December 9.

Read more on UNIAN: https://www.unian.info/world/10820321-merkel-to-visit-russia-at-putin-s-invitation.html

Let us remind ourselves that,

"Ukraine has welcomed expected U.S. sanctions on the Russian Nord Stream 2 natural-gas pipeline as"good news," while Germany, the main beneficiary of the project, has rejected the move as "foreign interference.
...
U.S. Senate and House committees agreed on December 9 to include a bill placing sanctions on Nord Stream 2 in the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), putting up a potential roadblock to the project's completion." (RFERL : 12 December 2019) (my emphasis)

 Youtube : 12 December 2019

Putin and Merkel are now scrambling to cobble together a deal that will allow Putin 'to save face' over allowing the transit of Russian gas across Ukraine, thus pouring money into the coffers of Ukraine.

The scrabbling together of this deal is best illustrated by the fact that,

"CEO of Gas Transmission System Operator of Ukraine (GTSOU) LLC Serhiy Makogon says the company has received payment for gas transit in full from Russia’s Gazprom, despite a reduction in volumes of gas transmitted." (Kyiv Post : 5 Jan 2020) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile, US Secretary Of State, Mike Pompeo,

"... just had a call with Ukraine's [President Volodymyr] Zelensky. Comes after he delayed his visit to Kyiv. He's now expected to go at the end of the month," journalist Christopher Miller said on Twitter on January 6, referring to a U.S. State Department readout of a recent phone call between the two officials." (UNIAN : 7 January 2020) (my emphasis)

US Secretary Of State Pompeo, however, now finds the agenda of his meeting with Zelensky somewhat on shaky grounds as more evidence now emerges that Trump, Mafia-like, tried to shake down Zelensky during that fateful call in July 2019.

As reported by Rachel Maddow,

"... they [Ukraine] can't get the military aid unless they announce the investigation [into Joe Biden] ... Dont't worry .. They will get the military aid as soon as Mike Pence has that meeting [with President Zelensky] ..." (MSNBC : 7 Jan 2020) (my emphasis)

Even more disconcerting for Pompeo, John Bolton (left), former Trump National Security Advisor who resigned from the Trump administration, is ready to testify before the Senate about the 'drug deal', as he calls it, that Trump was trying to make with Zelensky.

The White House is now on edge, as are Trump's vehement supporters in the US Senate.

MSNBC 6 Jan 2020

As I wrote previously (11/12/2019),

"It is ironical that both Zelensky and Putin have Trump's fate in their hands viz.

• Putin's 'compromat' on Trump (cf the Steele Dossier), and 
• Zelensky's 'complete 25 July transcript ' of that call he had with Trump' 

As Zelensky stated,

"I think it would be appropriate to be diplomatic as we’ve just started talking. Let’s say for now it’s a draw.” (Roman Olearchyk and Henry Foy) (my emphasis)

What agenda will Pompeo now be bringing with him to Kiev in light of John Bolton's announcement that he is willing to testify, against Trump, at the upcoming Senate impeachment trial against Trump?

Zelensky now has it in his power to call the shots with Pompeo, if they ever meet this month.

As the evidence of Trump's shakedown of Zelensky continues to mount, Pompeo's hands will be tied.

How will Zelensky handle his upcoming meeting with Pompeo? 

(to be continued)

Zelensky now holds political cards in his hand that neither Putin nor Merkel can ignore.

Katya Golubkova, Darya Korsunskaya, and Polina Ivanova report that,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin and his German counterpart Angela Merkel discussed the Nord Stream-2 natural gas pipeline to Germany and the transit of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine in a phone call on Monday [16 December 2019], the Kremlin said." (Reuters: 16 December 2019) (my emphasis)

 just 5 days after,

"Ukraine has welcomed expected U.S. sanctions on the Russian Nord Stream 2 natural-gas pipeline as"good news," while Germany, the main beneficiary of the project, has rejected the move as "foreign interference.
...
U.S. Senate and House committees agreed on December 9 to include a bill placing sanctions on Nord Stream 2 in the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), putting up a potential roadblock to the project's completion." (RFERL : 12 December 2019) (my emphasis)

 Youtube : 12 December 2019

Putin and Merkel are now scrambling to cobble together a deal that will allow Putin 'to save face' over allowing the transit of Russian gas across Ukraine, thus pouring money into the coffers of Ukraine.

That Putin will agree with Putinversteher Merkel is highly unlikely.

Yet both of them are caught in an inescapable economic vice.

Merkel's German economy is 50% dependent on 'exports', whilst Putin's economy is almost totally dependent on the price of oil and gas.

In the words of George Friedman,

• "Russia ... Russia is Saudi Arabia ... They depend on oil exports ... oil prices cannot be controlled by the Russians ... at $50 a barrel they cannot run the country"
• "Germany exports 50% of its GDP. Half of its economy depends on its customers buying"

Is it any wonder that Putin and Merkel are so desperate to get Nord Stream2 up and running?

Is it also any wonder that Russia [read: an angry Putin] pulls Ukrainian president's TV show off air after joke about Putin?

As reported by Nataliya Vasilyeva (left),

"TV viewers in Moscow reported that a segment with Mr Zelenskiy’s joke about Mr Putin was apparently cut out while it aired in full in Russia’s Far East, several times zones earlier.

In the episode, an assistant offers the president-elect an expensive watch and tells him that Mr Putin prefers the Swiss brand Hublot. Mr Zelenskiy mispronounces the French word and asks “Putin Hublot?” echoing a common slur in Ukraine which calls him a “d---head.” (The Telegraph : 12 December 2019) (my emphasis)


Putin will export his gas through Merkel's Germany, and Merkel's Germany will fill its coffers by pumping that gas to the rest of the EU.

But Merkel must be seen to bat for Ukraine's pipelines remaining as a minor source of filling Ukraine's coffers, even though Ukraine's pipelines are more than adequate for pumping gas to the EU, including gas for Germany. 

She must also be seen to uphold International Principles of Law.

She must therefore also be seen to condemn Putin's illegal invasion and annexation of Crimea, and his ongoing war with Ukraine in the Donbas.

But before she shuffles off the political stage into retirement, she is also determined to see Nord Steam2 up-and-running.

Zelensky can begin to take some comfort in the fact that,

•  “There was neither betrayal, nor a victory, neither a peace agreement signed, nor capitulation [by Zelensky at the recent Normandy Four meeting in Paris]],” said Iryna Herashchenko, an MP allied with former Ukrainian president Mr Poroshenko. “And at this stage this is probably good for Ukraine.” ( Roman Olearchyk and Henry Foy : Financial Times : 10 December, 2019) (my emphasis) 
•  And when asked who triumphed in their [Normandy Four meeting] exchanges, Zelenskiy said: “I don’t know who (beat) who. I think it would be appropriate to be diplomatic as we’ve just started talking. Let’s say for now it’s a draw.” (John Irish and, Margaryta Chornokondratenko : Reuters : 9 December, 2019) (my emphasis)
• Furthermore, both Zelensky and Putin have Trump's fate in their hands viz. Putin's 'compromat' on Trump (cf the Steele Dossier), and Zelensky's 'complete 25 July transcript ' of that call he had with Trump'
• Finally, Nord Stream2 still has that US 'roadblock' that it has to negotiate rather carefully 

Zelensky now holds political cards in his hand that neither Putin nor Merkel can ignore.

(to be continued)

Let’s say for now it’s a draw.

The Monday confrontation between Zelensky and the 'old guard trio' of Merkel, Macron, and Putin, has come and gone, and we are now left with trying to read the 'tea leaves' that has been left behind.

According to Roman Olearchyk and Henry Foy,

"Speaking to the press in the Elysée Palace alongside Mr Macron, German chancellor Angela Merkel and the Russian president, a tired-looking Mr Zelensky said he missed his home country after hours of negotiations that did not yield any major breakthrough. Yet, the Ukrainian leader stood firm.
...
Ukraine would not accept Russia’s annexation of the Crimea peninsula in 2014, he insisted. Kyiv would reject Moscow’s push for federalisation of the country or permanent autonomy for the breakaway eastern Donbas regions, where Russia-backed separatists are fighting government forces, he added.

“Ukraine is an independent, democratic state, whose development vector will always be chosen exclusively by the people of Ukraine,” he said. “Both Donbas and Crimea are Ukraine.” (Financial Times : 10 December, 2019) (my emphasis)

Zelensky has swum against a formidable political tide, and even though an agreement about the exchange of prisoners has been reached, John Irish and, Margaryta Chornokondratenko (left) report that,

"Asked who triumphed in their exchanges, Zelenskiy said: “I don’t know who (beat) who. I think it would be appropriate to be diplomatic as we’ve just started talking. Let’s say for now it’s a draw.” (Reuters : 9 December, 2019) (my emphasis)

To the relief of Zelensky, Roman Olearchyk and Henry Foy further report that,

“There was neither betrayal, nor a victory, neither a peace agreement signed, nor capitulation,” said Iryna Herashchenko, an MP allied with former Ukrainian president Mr Poroshenko. “And at this stage this is probably good for Ukraine.” (ibid Olearchyk and Foy) (my emphasis)

Putin, however,

"... expressed only cautious hope for the peace talks. “All this gives us the grounds to suppose that the process is developing in the right direction,” he said.

Sticking to his cool tone, when he ended his remarks to journalists in Paris, Putin thanked Merkel and Macron warmly but offered no pleasantries to Zelenskiy." (ibid John Iris and, Margaryta Chornokondratenko)

This behaviour of Putin towards Zelensky may be due to the fact that EU and US sanctions against Putin and his 'siloviki' remain firmly in place.

It also signifies that Putin blundered when he publicly stated that,

"The Minsk [II] agreements, the blueprint for peace struck in 2014 and 2015 between Mr Putin and Mr Zelensky’s predecessor Petro Poroshenko, needed to be implemented “in full”, Mr Putin said in Paris. (ibid Olearchyk and Foy) (my emphasis)

It is therefore no wonder that,

"In one episode described in a statement by Arsen Avakov, Ukraine’s interior affairs minister, the Russian president’s adviser Vladislav Surkov lost his temper. “Mr Surkov lost his nerve, threw papers on the table and yelled: ‘we did not agree to this’,” according to Mr Avakov." (ibid Olearchyk and Foy) (my emphasis)

The Common Agreed Conclusions also state that, Merkel, Putin, Macron, and Zelensky have agreed to,

" ... have another meeting in this format within four months on the political and security conditions, inter alia for the organization of the local elections." (Eleysee Palace : 9 December 2019) (my emphasis)

Could this agreement by Putin have something to do with the fact that Zelensky has, in his possession, the complete transcript of his fateful call with Trump on the 25th July, a call that is now at the very epicentre of Trump's impending impeachment and which, if publicly released, will end Trump's presidency?

Both Putin and Trump are aware of this salient political fact.

Is this why that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, met with Trump on Monday in the Oval Office, the same day as the Normandy Format meeting was taking place in Paris?  

 MSNBC : 10 December 2019

It is ironical that both Zelensky and Putin have Trump's fate in their hands viz.

• Putin's 'compromat' on Trump (cf the Steele Dossier), and 
• Zelensky's 'complete 25 July transcript ' of that call he had with Trump' 

As Zelensky stated,

"I think it would be appropriate to be diplomatic as we’ve just started talking. Let’s say for now it’s a draw.” (ibid Olearchyk and Foy)) (my emphasis)

FULL TRANSCRIPT OF COMMON AGREED CONCLUSIONS

Paris "Normandie" summit - Common agreed conclusions

9 décembre 2019 - Déclaration

The President of the French Republic, the Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany, the President of the Russian Federation and the President of Ukraine met in Paris today.

The Minsk agreements (Minsk Protocol of 5 September 2014, Minsk Memorandum of 19 September 2014 and the Minsk Package of Measures of 12 February 2015) continue to be the basis of the work of the Normandy format whose member states are committed to their full implementation.

They underline their shared aspiration to a sustainable and comprehensive architecture of trust and security in Europe, based on the OSCE principles, for which the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine is one of several important steps.

On this basis, they decide on the following:

1. Immediate measures to stabilize the situation in the conflict area

The sides commit to a full and comprehensive implementation of the ceasefire, strengthened by the implementation of all necessary ceasefire support measures, before the end of the year 2019.

They will support the development and implementation of an updated demining plan, on the basis of the decision of the Trilateral Contact Group on demining activities, dated March 3, 2016.

They will support an agreement within the Trilateral Contact Group on three additional disengagement areas, with the aim of disengaging forces and equipment by the end of March 2020.

They encourage the Trilateral Contact Group to facilitate the release and exchange of conflict-related detainees by the end of the year, based on the principle of “all for all”, starting with “all identified for all identified”, with the understanding that international organisations including the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) be granted full and unconditional access to all detained persons.

They will support an agreement within the Trilateral Contact Group, within 30 days, on new crossing points along the line of contact, based primarily on humanitarian criteria.

They recall that the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine (SMM) should be able to use all possibilities of the 21 March 2014 mandate, and have safe and secure access throughout Ukraine in order to fully implement its mandate.

2. Measures to implement the political provisions of the Minsk agreements

The sides express interest in agreeing within the Normandy format (N4) and the Trilateral Contact Group on all the legal aspects of the Special Order of Local Self-Government - special status - of Certain Areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk Regions - as outlined in the Package of Measures for the Implementation of the Minsk Agreements from 2015 - in order to ensure its functioning on a permanent basis.

They consider it necessary to incorporate the “Steinmeier formula” into the Ukrainian legislation, in accordance with the version agreed upon within the N4 and the Trilateral Contact Group.

3. Follow up

They ask their Ministers of Foreign Affairs and Political Advisors to ensure the implementation of the agreements reached and they agree to have another meeting in this format within four months on the political and security conditions, inter alia for the organization of the local elections.

Zelensky will be treading water at Monday's Normandy Format meeting. Will he survive, or will he drown.

Tony Barber reported that,

"In fact, much more will be at stake when the leaders of France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine meet in Paris on December 9 for their first direct talks about the region in more than three years.

The heart of the matter is whether western governments and Russia are in the mood for a lasting accommodation over Ukraine, the pivotal country in Europe’s post-cold war order. Even though the US will be absent from the Paris discussions, Washington knows no less than its allies that stability on the European continent will never be assured as long as Ukraine’s place in this order remains undefined." (Financial Times : 5 December 2019) (my emphasis)

He further reported that,

"The ghost at the Paris talks will be US President Donald Trump’s administration. The presidential impeachment inquiry being conducted by the House of Representatives has shone a light on American policy towards Ukraine. (ibid Tony Barber) (my emphasis)

As a former President Bush Security Advisor, Juan Zarate, states,

"This is the big untold story. How much the Ukrainians are weak and affected not just by the call [July 25] .. not just the question of the controversy ..  but by the ongoing impeachment drama while Zelensky's trying to govern ... while he's trying to build credibility, and while on Monday he's going to face Vladimir Putin in negotiations over what happens next in Ukraine ..." (MSNBC : 6 December 2019) (my emphasis)

"In practice, some western capitals have quietly written off Crimea and do not wish to encourage Ukraine’s hopes of joining Nato and the EU. Rather, they think Ukraine should be satisfied with a status similar to that of Finland during the cold war. It was a democracy, but neutral rather than in the western camp, and careful never to tread on Moscow’s toes." (ibid Tony Barber) (my emphasis)

Step forward Angela Merkel and Emanuelle Macron, two of the central players in the Normandy Format meeting that will be held in France on Monday.

Let us remind ourselves of Angela Merkel's great admiration of that minor German princess that became the Catherine the Great of Russia. 

" ...Catherine the Great (Екатери́на Вели́кая, Yekaterina Velikaya), born Princess Sophie of Anhalt Zerbst, was Empress of Russia from 1762 until 1796, the country's longest-ruling female leader. She came to power following a coup d'état that she organised—resulting in her husband, Peter III, being overthrown." (Wikipedia)

Interestingly,

"... she governed at a time when the Russian Empire was expanding rapidly by conquest and diplomacy. In the south, the Crimean Khanate was crushed following victories over the Ottoman Empire in the Russo-Turkish wars..." (Wikipedia)

And then, of course, we have French President Macron ...

Youtube: 24 May 2018

And amidst all this "mutual admiration society" between Putin and Macron, and Putin and Merkel, UNIAN reports that,

"The armed forces of the Russian Federation and its mercenaries violated the ceasefire 14 times on December 6. Two Ukrainian soldiers were wounded in enemy shelling," (UNIAN: 7 December 2019) (my emphasis)"

 whilst at the same time,

"Only 14.6% of those polled in Ukraine support the idea of granting special status to the self-proclaimed republics – the "Donetsk People's Republic" ("DPR") and the "Luhansk People's Republic" ("LPR") – within the territory of Ukraine." (UNIAN : 6 December 2019) (my emphasis)

The granting of special status to the Putin-controlled area of the Donbas is a KEY demand of Putin, and a demand that Merkel and Macron will also be forcing Zelensky to make.

The 'mythical' "Steinmeier Formula" revolves around this critical concession of granting special status to the Putin-controlled area of the Donbas that has to be made by Zelensky if he is to keep his promise to the Ukrainian electorate that he will end Ukraine's war with Putin in the Donbas.

Zelensky may believe that the mere fact that Putin's attendance at Monday's Normany Format meeting, after years simply dismissing these meetings as somewhat beneath contempt, signals a movement forward in ending Ukraine's war with Putin is a belief that is akin to an alchemist being able to turn base metals into gold.

The 'Trump elephant in the room' at Monday's meeting simply cannot be ignored either.

Zelensky will be treading water at Monday's Normandy Format meeting. Will he survive or will he drown.

(to be continued)

-:STOP PRESS :-

Joel Gehrke (left) reported that,

"NATO allies are warning French President Emmanuel Macron not to “soften” his support for Kyiv days before he hosts a summit focused on resolving the conflict between Russia and Ukraine" (Washington Examiner : 7 December 2019) (my emphasis)

He further reports that,

"Estonian Defense Minister Juri Luik (right) told the Washington Examiner, emphasizing that Macron and Merkel should not try “mediating” between Zelensky and Putin. “I see their role more as facilitators, but also people who guarantee that the international community is present and Putin cannot use his trump cards of, de facto, having conquered parts of Ukraine.” (ibid Joel Gehrke)

Joel Gehrke also reports that Christopher Skaluba, director of the Atlantic Council’s Transatlantic Security Initiative, stated that,

“It's hard not to think that by legitimizing Putin, legitimizing Russia, trying to invite them back into the conversation, that they're somehow not getting a pass for what happened in Crimea, what is currently happening in eastern Ukraine,”
...
“So, I'm sure if you're a Ukrainian official, a Ukrainian citizen, you feel a little bit hung out to dry.”