Zelensky now stands at the political crossroads.

UNICEF, the UN Children's Agency, have reported (20 May 2020) that,

"At a time when children and families in eastern Ukraine are living under COVID-19 related movement restrictions, an increase in shelling has resulted in numerous child casualties and damaged schools in the region, making life even more unbearable for the approximately 430,000 children caught up in the six-year long conflict, UNICEF said today.

Six children were injured at home after their villages came under shelling during the first week of May alone. One incident severely injured three young girls, two of them sisters, aged 7 and 10 years old and the other a friend, also aged 7." (UNICEF : 20 May 2020) (my emphasis)

This report of UNICEF is backed up by a summary report of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine that included,

• "Compared with the previous reporting period, the Mission recorded more ceasefire violations in both Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

•  It saw mines, including some for the first time, near Maiorsk and Petrivske and in Zaitseve, Holmivskyi, and Staromykhailivka.   

• The SMM’s freedom of movement continued to be restricted.*" (OSCE Report : 23 May 2020) (my emphasis)

Further confirming the uptick of attacks by Putin's Russian soldiers and proxies in the Donbas, a video released by the Ukrainian military shows what it claims is a team of Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) snipers operating in eastern Ukraine. (RFERL : 20 May 2020)

And against this backdrop of Putin's escalation of his war with Ukraine in  the Donbas, Oliver Carroll reports that,

"On Wednesday, in his annual news conference (20 May 2020)

• Gone was the easy style of the previous year’s meeting –... During the 3 hour affair, the president’s demeanour was harder, more defensive, and plenty more irritable.
• Mr Zelensky was angry with the journalists. He snapped when they asked about a colleague who was denied accreditation to the event: “He penetrated the presidential motorcade and you have to question his upbringing,” the president said. 
• An even stranger exchange followed when he was asked why so many of his inexperienced friends were being rewarded with high office. “These are people I trust,” Mr Zelensky replied, before turning to the journalist in question: “And what about you? I’m making you an offer to work with me. Choose your position and answer for your actions.” (The Independent : 21 May 2020) (my emphasis)

At this press conference Zelensky also unveiled,

" ... the existence of Plan B and Plan C on Donbas, but the Minsk agreements remain a priority. "I'm giving myself a few more months to resolve this, so that we find this diplomatic way out of the situation under the Minsk agreements," he said at a press conference on the first year of his presidency ...
...
As for 'Minsk' and this track, we will fight for it to the end, because sanctions against the Russian Federation are connected with the Minsk agreements. And you know everyone wants to lift them – not only Russia, but also many European countries. I know their economies are also suffering over these sanctions. But, as I said, we will fight for them for a year," he said." (UNIAN : 20 May 2020) (my emphasis)

But what does, "... we will fight for them (sanctions against Putin's Russia) for a year ..." really mean??

Adding even more confusion, does "the existence of Plan B and Plan C" include the wholesale scrapping of the Minsk2 agreements??

Maybe .... just maybe ...the fact that Oleksiy Reznikov (right), Ukraine's current Vice Prime Minister, has stated that,

"The Ukrainian side is  

• looking for a way to negotiate with the participation of real representatives of Donbas, from among internally displaced persons, to have this type of consultations supported by the OSCE and the Normandy Four." (UNIAN : 18 May 2020), and

• that those Putin-controlled 'militants' now sport Russian passports that Putin has ILLEGALLY given to them, thus suddenly conferring upon them the status of 'Russian representatives',  

gives us a clue as to what may be contained in Plan B or Plan C.

Zelensky may have postponed the Ukraine-Russia peace summit until after the corona virus pandemic has subsided.  (The Brussels Times : 20 May 2020) (my emphasis)

Putin, however, has not 'postponed' his ramping up of his war with Ukraine.

Zelensky now stands at the political crossroads.

As Duncan Allan's (left) summary of  his "The Minsk Conundrum" so explicitly points out,

• The Minsk agreements of September 2014 and February 2015, which sought to end Russia’s war in eastern Ukraine, rest on two irreconcilable interpretations of Ukraine’s sovereignty – what could be called the ‘Minsk conundrum’: is Ukraine sovereign, as Ukrainians insist, or should its sovereignty be limited, as Russia demands?

• Russia sees the Minsk agreements as tools with which to break Ukraine’s sovereignty. Its interpretation reverses key elements in the sequence of actions: elections in occupied Donbas would take place before Ukraine had reclaimed control of the border; this would be followed by comprehensive autonomy for Russia’s proxy regimes, crippling the central authorities in Kyiv. Ukraine would be unable to govern itself effectively or orient itself towards the West. (Chatham House : 22 May 2020) (my emphasis)

Which political road will Zelensky choose?

(to be continued)

Will not Oleksiy Reznikov's 'legal-sleigh-of-hand' tighten Putin's grip over the Donbas?

In an article entitled, "Failure of oil price war may cost Putin dear", David Gardner (left) writes that,

"Igor Sechin, chief of Rosneft, the state oil company, and long one of Russia’s most powerful men, wrote to Mr Putin last year, before Moscow changed tack on Opec+, complaining that its output restraints had “created a preferential advantage for the US . . . which has become a strategic threat to Russia’s oil industry development”.

If Mr Putin did indeed buy the Sechin thesis, that was surely a mistake. ... But Opec+ is not delivering." Financial Times : 30 April 2020) (my emphasis)

The Intelligence Unit of  'The Economist' now forecast that,

"Tensions with the West are high and we expect EU and US sanctions to remain in place in 2020-24. 
...
Russia has become more resilient to external shocks since 2014, but the dual shock of collapsed global oil prices and deteriorating domestic demand amid the coronavirus outbreak will result in an economic contraction of 5.2% in 2020." (The Economist Intelligence Unit : 19 May 2020) (my emphasis)


More disconcerting for Putin, The Moscow Times have just reported that,

"Russian GDP Falls 28% in April

The Russian economy contracted by more than a quarter in April, calculations based on official government statistics have shown. Using the first batch of official data on the damage from the coronavirus and Russia’s nationwide shutdown of the economy, Russia’s GDP in April was 28% smaller in nominal terms than in the same period last year, economists said. " (The Moscow Times : 20 May 2020) (my emphasis)

It is therefore no wonder that Putin is now trying to use the corona-virus pandemic to have EU and US sanctions against him and his 'siloviki' lifted.

Having previously failed in his argument that, "sanctions hinder the fight against the corona, trying to win hearts of certain EU member states" (UNIAN:19 May 2020), Putin is now desperately, "planning to act through the platform of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), "the structure Moscow pretty much fully controls." (ibid UNIAN)

As reported by UNIAN,

"The statement [of the CIS prime ministers’ meeting on May 29] will urge all countries to abandon trade wars, unilateral sanctions introduced bypassing the UNSC, and other measures of economic pressure or coercion on the part of certain state actors against others. Signatories will reaffirm their intention to seek free, fair, non-discriminatory, transparent, predictable and stable conditions for trade and investment," the leaked draft shows." (UNIAN: 19 May 2020) (my emphasis)

Putin's panic as his Russian economy falls around his knees is, according to Sarah Rainsford, causing him to,

" ... run out of patience with coronavirus.

On Monday he sent millions of workers back to factories and building sites across Russia, declaring six weeks of full lockdown over.

 BBC: 15 May

Regional leaders have been left to manage exactly how and when they lift the remaining restrictions, with the infection rate still stubbornly high - especially in Moscow." (BBC News : 15 May 2020) (my emphasis)

BBC: 15 May

And against this backdrop of a failing Health System and a collapsing economy in Russia, Putin continues to lash out against Ukraine.

As reported by UNIAN,

"Russia's hybrid military forces on May 18 mounted 11 attacks on Ukrainian positions in Donbas, eastern Ukraine. "The Russian Federation's armed formations violated the ceasefire 11 times in the past day," the press center of Ukraine's Joint Forces Operation said in a Facebook update as of 07:00 Kyiv time on May 19, 2020." (UNIAN : 18 May 2020) (my emphasis)

And yet ... and yet ...

"LPR", "DPR" envoys in Minsk talks have status of persons "invited" by Russia, Ukrainian official stresses" .. so screams the UNIAN headline.

"The Ukrainian side is looking for a way to negotiate with the participation of real representatives of Donbas, from among internally displaced persons, to have this type of consultations supported by the OSCE and the Normandy Four." (UNIAN : 18 May 2020) (my emphasis)

The fact that Ukraine has always insisted that, ".. any direct negotiations with Russian-controlled militants are off the table", and that these Putin-controlled 'militants' now sport Russian passports that Putin has ILLEGALLY given to thousands of Donbas Ukrainians, do these illegal passports of Putin's 'militants' now suddenly confer upon them the status of 'Russian representatives'???

So, it would seem, according to

 (i)  Ukraine's Vice Prime Minister,
(ii)  Minister for Reintegration of Temporarily Occupied Territories,
(iii) First Deputy Representative of Ukraine to the Trilateral Contact Group for the Donbas settlement,  

Oleksiy Reznikov (left).

This 'legal sleigh-of-hand' in bringing Putin's Donbas militant proxies to the consulting process,  ostensibly to 'satisfy' all the conditions of the Minsk2 protocols, smacks of nothing more nor less than to hold aloft a Donbas Peace Plan, similar to the one held aloft by Neville Chamberlain in 1939, and signed by Adolf Hitler.

Yet it was precisely the actions of the Putin-controlled representatives of certain areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, the predecessors of the current "holders of Russian passports" representatives that Oleksiy Reznikov now views as "legal Russian representatives", that allowed Putin to spark of his war with Ukraine in the Donbas in the first place.

History, it would seem, is repeating itself.

Putin will simply NOT allow his grip over areas of the Donbas and Ukraine's Crimea to be released.

The critical question is,

"Will not Oleksiy Reznikov's 'legal-sleigh-of-hand' tighten Putin's grip over the Donbas?"

(to be continued)

Will Putin now invade Ukraine at Mariupol?

UNIAN reports that,

"Russia's hybrid military forces on May 9 mounted 17 attacks on Ukrainian positions in Donbas, eastern Ukraine. "The Russian Federation's armed groups violated the ceasefire 17 times in the past day," the press center of Ukraine's Joint Forces Operation said in a Facebook update as of 07:00 Kyiv time on May 10, 2020." (UNIAN : 10 May 2020) (my emphasis)

These attacks by Putin's hybrid military forces in the Donbas follow those on the 8 May, in which four Ukrainian soldiers were wounded. (UNIAN : 9 May 2020) (my emphasis)

This continuous violation of the ceasefire by Putin's Russian soldiers and proxies in the Donbas comes against the backdrop of a record rise of corona-virus infections in Putin's Russia.

As reported by BBC News,

"In the last 24 hours [Russia] reported a record daily rise of 11,656 cases, bringing the official total to 221,344." (BBC News : 11 May 2020) (my emphasis)

Notwithstanding that only Spain and the US now have more reported infections Putin, nonetheless, has declared that,

"... from Tuesday (12 May) the nationwide coronavirus lockdown will be eased and businesses will go back to work. " (ibid BBC News) (my emphasis)

BBC News 11 May

As I wrote in my blog entry of 21 April 2020,

"... As the economic and social fallout from the corona-virus unravels Putin's Russian and international political agenda, Putin will lash out against Ukraine."

as the UNIAN reports above (9 and 10 May) confirms.

As also reported by Jessica Resnick-Ault (left),

"Oil dropped 4% to below $30 a barrel on Wednesday as U.S. crude stockpiles ticked up and diesel inventories swelled, offsetting OPEC-led cuts in production and hopes for a recovery in demand as some countries ease coronavirus lockdowns." (Reuters : 6 May 2020) (my emphasis)

And as Putin eases his lock-down of the Russian economy, a strategic adviser to the United States, political analyst Molly McKew (right), argues that,

"The Russian policy of granting citizenship to the population of a neighboring state poses a threat to international security; therefore, the EU and NATO need to develop a comprehensive strategy to counter such hybrid Russian interventions.
..
... in the light of recent changes proposed by the President of the Russian Federation to the law on granting citizenship and develop a comprehensive strategy to counter such Russian policy." (Guildhall : 7 May 2020) (my emphasis) (translated using Google Translate)

As the Chief of Ukraine's Permanent Mission to the United Nations, Ambassador Serhiy Kyslytsya (left) reported to the UN Security Council in February of this year,

"Russia has issued over 200,000 passports to Ukrainians living in the occupied parts of Donbas.
...
Russia also pursues illegal passportization in the temporarily occupied territories of Donbas, which has now reached an industrial level – more than 200,000 persons were issued Russian passports there," the envoy told a UN Security Council (UNSC) meeting in New York City on February 18." (UNIAN : 7 May 2020) (my emphasis)

This illegal passportization of Putin now carries a greater danger for Ukraine in light of the rising corona-virus infections in Russia.

The corona-virus epidemic in Putin's Russia is throwing into a tailspin Putin's plans to increase the declining population of Russia. (cf: Lilya Palveleva and Robert Coalson : RFERL : 12 Jan 2020 and Michael Kofman : Texas National Security Review : 4 Feb 2020)

Putin now sees the incorporation of  yet more of Ukraine into his "Novorossiya" pipe-dream as a matter of even greater urgency; as a means to increase the population of Russia.

Of this Zelensky should be aware.
 

Let us recall that in my blog entry (27/12/2017) I stated that,

"Putin's military build-up of tanks in the Donbas is a prelude to attack Mariupol, specifically to gain that land-bridge with Ukrainian Crimea that he so desperately needs to further consolidate his hold over Ukrainian Crimea."

Could the sweeping corona-virus epidemic in Russia be the Black Swan event that tips Putin into invading Ukraine at Mariupol?

(to be continued)

Zelensky has time on his side. Putin does not.

Even as the Covid-19 virus is causing the Russian economy to fall around Putin's knees, and his international political strategy lies in tatters before him, nonetheless,

"Russia is planning to open the huge [Resurrection of Christ Cathedral, a military monument to the Soviet victory in the second world war], with mosaics depicting Vladimir Putin and Joseph Stalin, as well as the annexation of Crimea, on the 75th anniversary of the defeat of Nazi Germany next month." (Andrew Roth : The Guardian : 27 April 2020) (my emphasis)

For the time being, however, due to these mosaic panels becoming public, and their 'controversial nature', they were removed, leaving empty spaces where they should have been placed. (BBC: 1 May 2020)

As these mosaic panels were being removed, Lavrov (Putin's dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign Minister), French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas, and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, held a 'video' Normandy Four conference on 30 April.

 Lavrov, Le Drian, Maas, & Kuleba

As reported by Henry Meyer and Daryna Krasnolutska,

"Fragile hopes of ending the six-year conflict in Ukraine that might pave the way to an easing of European sanctions on Russia have evaporated as Moscow and Kyiv find themselves in renewed deadlock." (Bloomberg : 30 April 2020) (my emphasis)
 
The four-way talks focused on the implementation of a 2015 Minsk II peace agreement for eastern Ukraine that was signed in Minsk and brokered by France and Germany.

Vladimir Isachenkov (right) further reports that :-

•  Lavrov [ ] noted that the Ukrainian authorities have continued to shun direct dialogue with the rebels, stymieing peace efforts. He emphasized that such negotiations are essential for implementing earlier agreements that envisaged a broad autonomy for the rebel regions.
•  Kuleba rejected Lavrov's arguments, insisting that Ukraine will not talk to the “illegal formations.”
• Maas said that many of the elements agreed in Minsk and Paris have yet to be implemented. “These compromises, which are the result of long and hard negotiations, mustn’t be destroyed"
• And rather lamely, French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said in a statement that participants agreed to call for a cease-fire. (ABC News : 30 April 2020) (my emphasis)

EU sanctions against Putin for his illegal annexation of Ukraine's Crimea, and his ongoing war with Ukraine, have not been removed.

As the EU spokesperson for the European Commission Peter Stano (left) stated on 6th April,

"The European Union leadership says there is no issue in keeping sanctions against Russia in place amid the coronavirus pandemic because they do not hamper Russia’s capabilities to address the outbreak..sanctions "do not prevent Russia from tackling coronavirus outbreak." (Tass :6 April 2020) (my emphasis)

Underlining the fact that sanctions do not prevent Russia from tackling the coronavirus outbreak is the fact that,

"Moscow has expanded its military actions on the Black Sea, not to compete with other international players who are too strong for that but rather to try to end trade in Ukrainian ports, something that weakens Kyiv and gives Moscow additional leverage in Ukraine.

...

Russia’s “final goal” remains unchanged: the installation in Kyiv of a pro-Russian government under Moscow’s control, Danilyuk says. To that end, it is prepared to compromise the rights of Ukrainians on the occupied territories in terms of land ownership and put them at greater risk of infection from the pandemic." (Oleksandr Danilyuk (right): Window on Eurasia : 22 April 2020) (my emphasis)

Further underscoring that sanctions do not prevent Putin from putting more resources into tackling the corona virus outbreak in Russia,

"Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin (left) has signed an order increasing the salaries of those in the Russian Guard and other organs of internal affairs serving in Moscow and St. Petersburg and in Moscow and Leningrad Oblasts by as much as 100 percent when they are deployed to maintain “public order”" (Window on Eurasia : (https://ehorussia.com/new/node/20677 (use Google Translate): 25 April 2020) (my emphasis)

This action of Mishutin indicates that Putin is wary that the growing economic hardship of the Russian people, coupled with a collapsing oil-price and an avalanche of small businesses going bankrupt, spells danger to his vice-like grip on Russian society.

Putin may have cleared the streets of protestors ...  but he cannot eradicate the number of growing online protest actions.

 Youtube : 28 April 2020

  

Zelensky has time on his side. Putin does not.

(to be continued)

Zelensky must not take his eyes off Ukraine's war with Putin during this corona-virus epidemic

Putin's worst nightmare has arrived. This nightmare is best summed up by the following heading ..

So reported Patti Dom (20 April 2020). 

"The oil industry is in its worst crisis since at least the Great Depression (of the 1930's), according to analysts.

There’s too much oil, and nobody wants to buy any more. Planes aren’t flying, shipping has slowed, and U.S. consumers, who use 10% of the world’s oil output in their cars, are now staying at home." (CNBC : 20 April 2020) (my emphasis)

Yet as recently as 12 April, BBC Business reported that,

"Opec producers and allies have agreed a record oil deal that will slash global output by about 10% after a slump in demand caused by coronavirus lockdowns.

The deal, agreed on Sunday via video conference, is the largest cut in oil production ever to have been agreed." (BBC Business : 12 April 2020) (my emphasis)

This level of oil-price volatility is still further depressing Putin's Russian economy.

As reported by Energyworld, Putin's

" ... National Wealth Fund has sufficient reserves to last until 2024 if oil prices remain at current levels, the TASS news agency quoted Finance Minister Anton Siluanov as saying on Sunday.
" (Energyworld : 20 April 2020) (my emphasis)

 However, Energyworld further reports that,

"Russia's economy will show "seriously negative figures for the second quarter", former economy minister Maxim Oreshkin (right), an aide to President Vladimir Putin, was quoted as saying by TASS." (ibid Energyworld) (my emphasis)

If the corona virus and the volatility of the price of oil is causing Putin to have nightmares, adding to his woes is the fact that,

"On April 20, 2020, Ukraine is taking over the Chairmanship of the OSCE Forum for Security Cooperation from Turkey."Our State will be the first to chair the Forum online, taking into account the situation associated with the COVID-19 pandemic," the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) of Ukraine said in a statement on the beginning of Ukraine's presidency in the OSCE Forum for Security Co-operation (FSC)." (UNIAN: 20 April 2020) (my emphasis)

Ukraine will be bringing to the fore,

" .... modern challenges to regional and international security, primarily hybrid threats, militarization and impediment of navigation in the Azov and Black Sea region ..." (ibid UNIAN) (my emphasis)

But what effect will Ukraine's chairmanship of the OSCE have on the continuous attacks by Putin's proxies and Russian soldiers on the Ukrainian forces in the Donbas? 

As reported by UNIAN,

" The number of attacks by Russia's hybrid military forces on Ukrainian army positions in Donbas, eastern Ukraine, rose to 13 on April 20 with one Ukrainian soldier reported as killed in action and another four as wounded in action." (UNIAN : 21 April 2020) (my emphasis)

As the economic and social fallout from the corona-virus unravels Putin's Russian and international political agenda, Putin will lash out against Ukraine.

Now, more than ever, Zelensky must not take his eyes off Ukraine's war with Putin during this corona-virus epidemic. 

(to be continued)

Will Zelensky's "advisory council" bring "peace in our time" to Ukraine?

On 30th September, 1938, the then Prime Minister of Great Britain, Neville Chamberlain (left), addressed the crowd after his return from Germany, where he concluded the Munich Agreement with Adolf Hitler, and said,

"The settlement of the Czechoslovakian problem, which has now been achieved is, in my view, only the prelude to a larger settlement in which all Europe may find peace. This morning I had another talk with the German Chancellor, Herr Hitler, and here is the paper which bears his name upon it as well as mine." (Wikipedia) (my emphasis)

The Munich Agreement,

"...provided "cession to Germany of the Sudeten German territory" of Czechoslovakia.[1] Most of Europe celebrated the agreement, because it prevented the war threatened by Adolf Hitler by allowing Nazi Germany's annexation of the Sudetenland, a region of western Czechoslovakia inhabited by more than 3 million people, mainly German speakers." (Wikipedia) (my emphasis)

Youtube

Fast forward to 2020 and we have, the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky,

"President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky (left) does not intend to withdraw signatures of his Office Head Andriy Yermak and Ukraine's envoy to the Trilateral Contact Group in Minsk Leonid Kuchma from the minutes of meeting laying down the creation of the so-called "advisory council" with the participation of unrecognized representatives of the occupied Donbas." (UNIAN: 6 April 2020) (my emphasis)


The creation of this "advisory council", which includes Putin's proxies who are euphemistically referred to as "unrecognized representatives of the occupied Donbas", bears a striking resemblance to the Munich Agreement signed by Chamberlain and Hitler in 1938.

 Putin:- 

"the Russian and Ukrainian peoples are practically one single people," which is being taken as a major rhetorical step toward occupying or annexing more of Ukraine as Russian territory
....
The comments came just a day after Putin referred to the Russia-backed separatist rebels in eastern Ukraine [Donbas] as "the militia of Novorossiya," which means New Russia. (Vox : 30 August 2014) (my emphasis)
   

Hitler:-

"... Nazi Germany's annexation of the Sudetenland, a region of western Czechoslovakia inhabited by more than 3 million people, mainly German speakers." 


Unlike Chamberlain's Munich Agreement with Hitler, which was applauded by the Dutch and the French, amongst others,

" ... about 60 MPs with the Servant of the People Party called on President Zelensky to halt the process of creation of the advisory council as many believed the move would legitimize Russian puppet militants in the occupied Donbas, putting them on par with the Ukrainian government, as well as neglecting Russia's direct participation in the conflict." (ibid UNIAN 6 April 2020) (my  emphasis)

Zelensky's argument that,

"The Minutes of Meeting is not an international treaty as defined in Article 2 of Law of Ukraine 'On International Treaties of Ukraine', therefore the law does not regulate the President's authorization of signing or decision to withdraw signatures from Minsk TCG's working document of March 11, 2020," (ibid UNIAN)

thus represents a political and legal sleight of hand that, whilst underscoring his election pledge to end the war between Ukraine and Putin in the Donbas, nonetheless also underscores Putin's rhetorical 'Novorossiya' argument for invading and occupying the Donbas.

Putin is using much the same argument as used by Hitler to invade Czechoslovakia.


And against the backdrop of Zelensky giving the "green light" to the setting up of the "advisory council", UNIAN reports that,

"Russia's hybrid military forces on April 7 mounted 10 attacks on Ukrainian positions in Donbas, eastern Ukraine. "The armed forces of the Russian Federation violated the ceasefire 10 times on April 7," (UNIAN : 8 April 2020) (my emphasis)

The question is :-

"Will Zelensky's "advisory council" bring "peace in our time" to Ukraine?"

Zelensky should remind himself that in 1938 the Munich Agreement failed. 

(to be continued)

Zelenskey should prepare himself against Putin lashing out dangerously against Ukraine

In 2014, Peter Pomerantsev (left) warned us that Putin was 'weaponizing' information about his war with Ukraine.

In his book, “Nothing Is True and Everything Is Possible”, he exposes how,

"...The crisis in Ukraine has been fought just as much through the telling of its narrative as through its deployment of weaponry.
...
Russia has directed its propaganda campaign to devastating effect, not only at home but through international ventures like the television news channel RT (formerly Russia Today), which continues to expand, most recently opening an affiliate in South America and announcing a ­London-based version to focus exclusively on Britain. It’s an information war ... " (Miriam Elder : New York Times : 25 November 2014) (my emphasis)

Youtube : 5 December 2014

Fast forward to June of 2017 and we have The Week's staff  reporting that,

"What is Russia doing?

It's conducting a global disinformation campaign of unprecedented scope. Russia's interference in last year's U.S. election — when hackers stole and released emails from high-profile Democrats — wasn't an isolated incident.
.....
Kremlin-linked hackers have been active in French and German elections, promoting far-right parties.
.....
They are also believed to be behind the hack of Qatar's state news agency last month, when made-up quotes from the country's leader, expressing support for Israel and Iran, sparked a diplomatic crisis with Saudi Arabia." (The Week : 24 June 2017) (my emphasis)

And during the current global Corona Virus epidemic, Robin Emmott (left) reports that,

"Russian media have deployed a “significant disinformation campaign” against the West to worsen the impact of the coronavirus, generate panic and sow distrust, according to a European Union document seen by Reuters."
...
“A significant disinformation campaign by Russian state media and pro-Kremlin outlets regarding COVID-19 is ongoing,” said the nine-page internal document, dated March 16, using the name of the disease that can be caused by the coronavirus. (Reuters : 18 March 2020) (my emphasis)

(cf: also "Russia's top corona virus 'fake news' stories" (Andrew Rettmann : Euobserver : 27 March 2020))

Against this disinformation campaign by Putin about the Corona Virus epidemic ,

"Russia-backed militants kept violating the ceasefire. They fired at Ukrainian troops’ positions from Minsk-proscribed 82-mm and 120-mm mortars, antitank missile systems, grenade launchers, heavy machine guns and small arms." (UA Crisis : 30 March 2020) (my emphasis)

Putin is not having it all his own way.

UA Crisis further reports that,

• Kyiv disagreed with establishment of the Consultation Council in its preliminary setting.
•  Instead of officially creating the Consultation Council, the Ukrainian delegation suggested Russians to extend consultations on the matter.
• “Eighty per cent of Russian supplies are useless”. On March 25, when a convoy of Russian “Kamaz” trucks with tricolor flags started to Bergamo, Italy’s “La Stampa” newspaper quoting its own sources among high-level authorities and at the General Staff wrote that bigger part of Russian aid sent in to the country [Italy], is useless.
• In try to use the coronavirus pandemic to their benefit, Russian diplomats are actively promoting the statement that sanctions are worth lifting as a sign of solidarity in the face of a global threat.

However, the EU sanctions brought against Russia because of Putin's illegal annexation of Ukraine's Crimea, and his ongoing war with Ukraine in the Donbas, is to remain in place.   
 
As Ukrinform reports,

"The Council of the European Union has adopted a decision to extend sanctions against the Russian Federation until September 15, 2020 over actions undermining the territorial integrity of Ukraine, according to the Council’s press release." (Ukrinform : 31 March 2020) (my emphasis)

The dramatic fall in the price of oil, precipitated by the global corona virus epidemic, has hit Putin's Russian economy very hard.

As reported by the Moscow Times,

"Russia will create a 300-billion ruble ($4 billion) anti-crisis fund to try to shield its economy from the coronavirus shock, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said on Monday
....
Andrei Belousov, his first deputy, said last week that Russia may miss its economic growth target this year, originally set at 2%, while economists have warned that the country's economy may turn negative amid low oil prices and slower business activity." (Moscow Times : 20 March 2020) (my emphasis)

Putin has been caught on the back foot by a virus that he has absolutely no threatening influence over.

Now, more than ever, Zelenskey should prepare himself against Putin lashing out dangerously against Ukraine, as evidenced by the increase in shooting attacks by his Russian soldiers and proxies against Ukrainian forces in the Donbas.

(to be continued)

Zelensky should now tread even more cautiously in dealing with Putin.

In my last blog entry (19 March) I wrote that,

"As much as Zelensky is desperately trying to appease Putin, in light of the near avalanche of economic calamities now falling all around him, Putin WILL more dangerously lash out against the people of Ukraine.

Putin needs someone to kick around to vent his frustrations against the Corona virus and Saudi Arabia slashing the price of oil, a price that determines the viability of the whole of the Russian economy.

And what easier target than Zelensky and the people of Ukraine."

Nataliya Bugayova, Mason Clark, and George Barros (left) now report that,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin is using multiple ongoing crises, including the COVID-19 outbreak, to advance his strategic objectives in Ukraine without drawing attention from the West. Ukrainian officials agreed on March 11 to the Kremlin’s demands to consider direct discussions with the Kremlin-controlled proxies in Donbas. This agreement for further talks could launch an irreversible process of internationally legitimizing Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine – one of Putin’s core objectives." (Inst. for the Study of War : 24 March 2020) (my emphasis)

At the same time, Alexander Marrow, Andrey Ostroukh and Tom Balmforth (right) report that,

"The Kremlin said on Monday that medical assistance Russia was providing to Italy to help it battle the new coronavirus was not part of an attempt to get Rome help lift EU sanctions on Moscow. 

The Russian army on Sunday began flying medical help to Italy after receiving an order from President Vladimir Putin, a goodwill gesture that Moscow labeled “From Russia with Love”. (Reuters : 23 March 2020) (my emphasis)

At the same time, Putin is very busy sowing seeds of discord among EU countries by deploying fake news about the Corona virus epidemic now engulfing the world.

As reported by Robin Emmott (left),

"Russian media have deployed a “significant disinformation campaign” against the West to worsen the impact of the coronavirus, generate panic and sow distrust, according to a European Union document seen by Reuters."

The EU document said the Russian campaign, pushing fake news online in English, Spanish, Italian, German and French, uses contradictory, confusing and malicious reports to make it harder for the EU to communicate its response to the pandemic.
“A significant disinformation campaign by Russian state media and pro-Kremlin outlets regarding COVID-19 is ongoing,” said the nine-page internal document, dated March 16, using the name of the disease that can be caused by the coronavirus. (Reuters : 18 March 2020) (my emphasis)

Russian Disinformation Video: Reuters

And just yesterday (24/3/2020), UNIAN reported that,

"The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) says its operatives have detained a Kherson-based woman who had been disseminating disinformation on coronavirus spread, aiming to sow panic among Ukrainians and destabilize the region.
...
The woman had been spinning fake news in various online groups where she was an admin, with a total audience of nearly 100,000 subscribers, the SBU press service reports.
...
The investigation revealed her contacts with LPR-DPR terrorist groups and coordination with admins of other groups in social networks promoting separatism.
...
Previously, she posted calls for ousting the Ukraine government and promoted the idea of creating the so-called Novorossiya, the long-sought Russian project for eastern Ukraine." (UNIAN : 24 March 2020) (my emphasis)

And as this arrest was taking place,

"Russia-led forces mounted eight attacks on Ukrainian army positions in Donbas, eastern Ukraine, on March 24.

"The enemy opened fire on our positions, using 82mm mortars, which are prohibited under the Minsk agreements, as well as BMP-1 infantry fighting vehicles' armament, grenade launchers of various systems, large-caliber machine guns, rifles," the press center of the Joint Forces Operation (JFO) Headquarters said on Facebook in its morning update on March 25." (UNIAN : 25 March 2020) (my emphasis)

The current global epidemic has thrown Putin's global political plans out of the window.

Unlike anything else that Putin has had to deal with, the Covid-19 virus cannot be bribed or threatened.

It is a VIRUS!

Using this virus as a political tool reveals just how Putin treats the people of Ukraine with contempt.

Indeed in 2014, the year of the Maidan Revolution of Dignity, Angela Merkel confided to Barack Obama, then President of the US, that,

 "US reports said Merkel phoned Barack Obama on Sunday evening after speaking to the Russian president to press him to back down from his invasion of Ukraine and occupation of the Crimean peninsula.

"She was not sure he was in touch with reality, people briefed on the call said. 'In another world,' she said," the New York Times reported" (Ian Traynor and Patrick Wintour: The Guardian: 3 March 2014) (my emphasis)

 

For Putin, NOTHING has changed since 2014!  

Today he continues to live 'in another world'! He is not in touch with the reality of the devastation of the Corona virus!

Zelensky should now tread even more cautiously in dealing with Putin.

Much is at stake!

 (to be continued)

Zelensky transforming Putin from the warmonger in Ukraine into an "international mediator" over the war itself

The current global epidemic of the spread of the Corona Virus now dominates the news in practically every country in the world.

The minds of all people are now focused on protecting themselves from being infected with this dangerous virus, and rightly so.

Governments all over the world are now scrambling to protect their citizens from succumbing to the devastating social and economic impact of this rampantly spreading virus.

Already, as the price of oil continues to slide, Putin is at near panic stations. Putin now has to deal with BOTH the sliding price of oil, as well as trying to stem the spread of the Corona Virus among the Russian population.
 

As reported by Matt Egan,

"The nightmare in the oil industry keeps getting worse. It's now facing the weakest oil price since the first term of President George W. Bush. Intensifying recession fears drove US oil prices down a staggering 24% Wednesday to $20.37 a barrel. That's the lowest level since February 2002." (CNN Business : 18 March 2020) (my emphasis)

CNN Business :  18 March 2020

In his panic, Putin is now scrambling to save the Russian economy by,

"...[refusing] to cut production, in a bid to drown America's high-cost shale producers in a sea of cheap crude. Saudi Arabia responded by slashing prices and ramping up production -- exactly the opposite of what was needed to balance the market. " (ibid Matt Egan) (my emphasis)  

Meanwhile, on the political front, Zelensky has agreed to,

"...begin talks with representatives of Russian-occupied eastern Ukraine, marking a significant policy departure following six years of refusals to enter into direct dialogue with the Kremlin-appointed authorities of the breakaway regions. The agreement in question was signed in Minsk on March 11 by representatives of the Trilateral Contact Group, which consists of Ukraine, Russia, and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE)." (Peter Dickinson : Atlantic Council : 14 March 2020) (my emphasis)

But, as Alyona Getmanchuk (right) points out,

"Direct talks between Kyiv on the one hand and the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics, on the other hand, have been a key Kremlin demand ever since the beginning of the war in 2014.  

...

Kyiv avoided this scenario in order to keep Russia accountable for its actions in Ukraine. The idea has always been to prevent Russia from transforming itself (with Ukraine’s blessing) from a conflict participant into an international mediator, much as Moscow did earlier in Moldova." (Atlantic Council : 14 March 2020) (my emphasis)

Zelensky has, in one stroke, transformed Putin from having started the war with Ukraine into an 'international mediator' in the very war with Ukraine that he started in the first place.

As if to further consolidate his rapprochement with Putin, Zelensky has appointed Iryna Venedyktova (left) as the new Prosecutor-General who has previously clashed with reporters and civil society activists.

As reported by RFERL,

"The March 17 vote by the Verkhovna Rada was the latest in a series of top-level government personnel changes by President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
.....

Olena Halushka (right), director of international relations with the Anti-Corruption Action Center, said Venedyktova's new position raised doubts about the reform efforts that Ryaboshapka had undertaken.
.....
Halushka said Venedyktova did not have a background in criminal law, and had made several controversial appointments during her brief tenure as head of the DBR.

"Given her background and previous activities, as well as the context in which Ryaboshapka was dismissed and she [was] appointed, there are doubts she will be an independent and efficient prosecutor-general,” she told RFE/RL." (RFERL : 17 March 2020) (my emphasis)

Melinda Haring (left) is concerned about the shortcomings of Iryna Venedyktova.

As she reports,

"Venedyktova, who was the acting chief of the State Bureau of Investigations before her new appointment, is exactly the wrong person for the job.

Why? Because of the company she keeps. 

At the State Bureau of Investigations, she appointed Viktor Yanukovych’s former defense attorney as her first deputy and made a series of other questionable appointments. The Kyiv Post says that she’s considering making another dubious person deputy prosecutor general." (Atlantic Council : 17 March 2020) (my emphasis)

As concerns grow about the appointment of Iryna Venedyktova as the new Prosecutor-General, and Zelensky is "transforming Putin from having started the war with Ukraine into an 'international mediator' in the very war with Ukraine that he started in the first place", UNIAN informs us that,

"Russia's hybrid military forces on March 17 mounted 10 attacks on Ukrainian Army positions in Donbas, eastern Ukraine, with two Ukrainian soldiers reported as wounded in action. "The Russian Federation's armed forces violated the ceasefire 10 times on March 17" (UNIAN : 18 March 2020) (my emphasis)

As much as Zelensky is desperately trying to appease Putin, in light of the near avalanche of economic calamities now falling all around him, Putin WILL more dangerously lash out against the people of Ukraine.

Putin needs someone to kick around to vent his frustrations against the Corona virus and Saudi Arabia slashing the price of oil, a price that determines the viability of the whole of the Russian economy.

And what easier target than Zelensky and the people of Ukraine. 

(to be continued)