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Saturday 20 June 2015

Putin, Greece, and Ukraine.

In 1985 the late Margaret Thatcher gave a speech to the American Bar Association where she argued against giving terrorists the “oxygen of publicity.”

"And we must try to find ways to starve the terrorist and the hijacker of the oxygen of publicity on which they depend. In our societies we do not believe in constraining the media, still less in censorship. " she said." (David Gerstman (left) : L.I :  Monday, April 8, 2013) (my emphasis)

More recently, Peter Pomarentsev (right) has informed us that,

"The Kremlin exploits the idea of freedom of information to inject disinformation into society. The effect is not to persuade (as in classic public diplomacy) or earn credibility but to sow confusion via conspiracy theories and proliferate falsehoods." (Interpretermag : pdf file) (my emphasis)

At yesterday's (19 June, 2015) "St. Petersburg International Economic Forum", Putin was on form displaying precisely what Margaret Thatcher warned against viz. giving himself the 'oxygen of publicity on which he depends', as well as Peter Pomarentsev's insight that the 'Kremlin exploits freedom of information to sow confusion via conspiracy theories and proliferate falsehoods' about Russia's war with Ukraine.


It should be noticed how he purposefully evaded answering the question about his war with Ukraine, and his annexing of Ukrainian Crimea by switching to WWII, Iraq, and Libya, then stating that,

"... we are not the original cause of those crisis phenomena which happened in Ukraine"

How deceptive that he does not mention that the Ukrainian Maidan occurred because he bribed Yanukovich not to sign the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement, but rather that Ukraine should be emraced by the 'bear' hug of his Eurasian Customs Union.

This was also part of his political strategy to attack the EU itself.

As
Viktor Yanukovich and Stefan Fule Ukraine has abruptly ditched its plans to sign a historic pact with the European Union aimed at shifting the country out of the Kremlin's orbit. The decision handed victory to President Vladimir Putin in the increasingly vicious tug of war between Russia and the west for Ukraine's future, and looked like turning a special EU summit next week focused on Ukraine into a debacle." (The Guardian : Thursday 21 November 2013) (my emphasis)

He is now employing exactly the same tactic by 'luring' the Greek prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, with 'wads of money' to pull Greece out of the cataclysmic economic mire that threatens to engulf it.



It is for this reason that, as
Russian President Vladimir Putin, foreground, and Greek Prime Minister, behind him, Alexis Tsipras arrive for their talks at the St. Petersburg...... [Putin] and [Alexis Tsipras] produced a grand pageant of solidarity, friendship and supposed economic cooperation at Russia’s annual gathering for global business executives Friday, but the embrace seemed mostly about thumbing their noses at Europe." (New York Times :

Furthermore, Sandy MacIntyre and Nataliya Vasilyeva report that,







The emergency summit of leaders from eurozone nations will be held in Brussels on Monday, after negotiations on Thursday failed.

"Let me make it very clear as to the expectations," Mrs Merkel said on Friday.

"Such a summit can only become a summit of decisions if there is something to base a decision on.

"It is up to the three institutions [the ECB, IMF and European Commission] to assess this, and up to now we don't have that assessment." (BBC News : 20 June, 2015) (my emphasis)

At the same time, next week,

"A ministerial meeting between Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany aimed at finding a rapid solution to the conflict [in Ukraine] will be held next week in Paris". (Barbara Tasch (right) : Business Insider UK : Jun. 17, 2015)

She further reports that,

"Tensions might be running high in Paris. European Union governments announced on June 17th that the economic sanctions against Russia would be upheld until January 2016. The EU hopes that prolonged sanctions will put more pressure on the Kremlin to end conflict in Ukraine." (ibid Tasch) (my emphasis)

What must rather be sticking in the craw of Tsipras is the fact that the IMF is willing to countinue to bail out Ukraine even if it defaults on its debts, whilst it is demanding that Greece institutes radical reforms, especially in the area of its extremely generous  pension payments.

And sticking in Putin's craw is the fact that,

"Cash-strapped Ukraine promised on Friday to make the next payment on a disputed Russian loan it had threatened to stop servicing due to Moscow's rejection of more lenient terms." (Dmitry Zaks : AFP : 20 June, 2015)

"Russia had warned it would ask the International Court of Justice in The Hague to declare Ukraine in default if it failed to make a scheduled $75-million interest payment on Saturday. Jaresko said the money would be delivered on Monday because banks remained closed over the weekend." (ibid Dmitry Zaks) (my emphasis)

Putin's contemptable threat about taking Ukraine to the Int. Court of Justice if his money is not paid to-day (20 June, 2015) rather says it all.

Perhaps Mikhail Khodorkovsky (right) is correct when he said that,

Mikhail Khodorkovsky was once Russia's richest man but is now living in exile after spending a decade in jail on what he and his supporters say were charges fabricated because of the political threat he posed to Putin."The Russia-Ukraine conflict has no short-term solution and is part of a fabricated conflict with the West to distract everyday Russians from corruption and incompetence ... " (RFERL : Saturday, June 20, 2015) (my emphasis)

It would therefore be in Putin's interest to continue with his war against Ukraine.

Even more telling, and in support of Khodorkovsky's contention about the fabricated nature of Putin's war with Ukraine, is the fact that,

Russia's former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin attends the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum 2015 (SPIEF 2015) in St. Petersburg, Russia, June 18, 2015. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov"A former finance [Russian] minister [Alexei Kudrin (left)] proposed on Thursday bringing forward the next presidential election to give his ally, Vladimir Putin, a stronger mandate to reform the economy and guide Russia through a financial "storm".

Russia is sliding into recession, with economic sanctions imposed by the West over Moscow's role in the Ukraine conflict taking a toll and lower global oil prices depriving the country of its main source of revenue." (Thu Jun 18, 2015)

Signs of desperation?

(to be continued)

Wednesday 17 June 2015

Putin's latest nuclear threat.

In yesterday's blog entry (16 June, 2015) I wrote that,

"Having painted himself into a 'diplomatic' corner over his war with Ukraine, and with the Russian economy now in more than a mere parlous state due to falling oil prices and the effects of the ongoing sanctions that he has brought upon the head of the Russian people, Putin's 'maskirovka' strategies seem to be crumbling in his hands.

It is at this stage that he is at his most dangerous."

True to form,

"Russia has threatened to provide an "adequate response" to the prospect of increased US military presence in Eastern Europe and the Baltics, after the governments of both Poland and Lithuania confirmed that they are in talks with Washington about storing heavy US arms." (


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On March 9, 2015, Stratfor Global Intelligence published their scenario for Putin's military options to invade eastern Ukraine. 
A map of possible Russian invasion into Ukraine developed by https://www.stratfor.com in March 2015, which well illustrates the current scenario

And yesterday Nicole Gallina informed us that,

"Specialists from the group “Mirotvorets” acquired documents from the Russian General Staff that confirm Russia’s intentions to invade and occupy the Ukrainian territories east of the Dnipro river." (EuroMaidan Press : 17/06/2015) (my emphasis)

Herashchenko: Russia has plan for occupation of left-bank UkraineAdvisor to the Ukrainian Interior Ministry Anton Herashchenko (left) subsequently wrote on his Facebook page on Tuesday that,

"In April 2015, the General Staff of the Russian Federation approved another working plan for the occupation of left-bank Ukraine. The meeting on the approval of this plan was held on April 8-9 in St. Petersburg, in the headquarters of the Western Military District," he said." (utr news : Tuesday, 16 June 2015) (my emphasis)

He further informed us that,

".... the General Staff of the Russian Federation is planning actions to discredit the Ukrainian military.
"In simple terms: they are planning to shoot a few dozen residents of the militant-occupied Ukrainian territory of the Donbas, to film this and to blame the Ukrainian side for this," he said." (UNIAN : 16.06.2015) (my emphasis)

If Putin's generals are willing to:
  • shoot a few dozen people
  • film this shooting
  • and then blame the Ukrainians for perpetrating this heinous crime
is it any wonder that RT, Putin's own mouthpiece, now informs us that,

"A journalist for a Moscow opposition newspaper was detained, beaten, and accused of committing drug offenses in the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR)." (RT : June 17, 2015) (my emphasis)

This journalist, Pavel Kanygin (right), was,

Pavel Kanygin after his release (Image from Facebook)" ... in Donetsk to cover an anti-war demonstration on Monday. The following day, he was stopped by a group of men, who he said introduced themselves as “DPR security officials.” They searched him, and after finding a Ukrainian journalist’s business card, accused him of working for pro-Kiev media." (ibid RT) (my emphasis)
Journalist Pavel Kanygin is lucky to have gotten off so lightly for wishing to inform the Russian people of the anti-war demonstration in Donetsk last Monday.  (cf: blog entry)

"The assassination of Anna Politkovskaya (born 1958), the Russian journalist, writer and human rights activist, took place on 7 October 2006. She was well known for her opposition to the Chechen conflict and criticism of Russian President Vladimir Putin" (Wikipedia) (my emphasis)

Yet, as I have stated, " Putin's 'maskirovka' strategies seem to be crumbling in his hands."

No amount of nuclear sabre-rattling on Putin's part will be able to conceal the fact that there are thousands of Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine still trying to fan the flames of his "Novorossiya" imperial dreams, just as the dream of  Partiarch Kirill (right) of the Russian Orthodox Church, who wants to reign as leader of the Orthodox world, now has to contend with the fact that,

"... [o]ne of the main factors contributing to the collapse of that "Russian world" is the schism rapidly forming within the Russian Orthodox Church (ROS). It now seems inevitable that the Ukrainian Orthodox Church and its parishes will formally break with the ROS." (Vladimir Ryzhkov : The Moscow Times: Jun. 15 2015)

Let us not forget that throughout Russian history, the Russian Orthodox Church has always been a powerful pillar of support of the Czars, the Soviet Kremlin, and now of Putin himself.

Thanks to the investigation of journalist Simon Ostrovsky, yet again is the lie of Putin that there are no Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine, exposed to the world. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2zssIFN2mso)


(to be continued)

Tuesday 16 June 2015

Putin is now at his most dangerous

In my last blog entry I stated that Putin has painted himself into a corner. As an indicator of this we have
    Barack Obama and Vladimir Putin
(i) The Pentagon [..] poised to store battle tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and other heavy weapons for as many as 5,000 troops in several Baltic and Eastern European countries, to deter any possible further Russian aggression in Europe (Reuters : 13 Jun 2015) (my emphasis)

 (ii) Moscow-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine have backpedalled on legal proposals which they issued that did not recognise Russia's annexation of the Crimea peninsula. (Tom Parfitt : Daily Telegraph : 10 Jun 2015) (my emphasis) 
and, most significant of all,
(iii) In possibly the first large protest against Russia's war in a separatist-controlled city, some 500 residents in Donetsk staged a rally and blocked the main Artema Street.....(Johannes Wamberg Andersen : KyivPost : June 15, 2015)

 What is disconcerting for the Donetsk separatist leader, Aleksandr Zakharchenko, is that the protesters shouted,

"You are hiding behind our backs," the news agency AFP quoted residents as shouting. Others chanted "Shame!" and "Stop the War!" or criticized the separatist leadership." (RFERL : 16 June,2015) (my emphasis)


“We want military equipment to be withdrawn from the area,” said Yulia, a 26-year-old cook, who refused to give her surname citing safety concerns. “They shell and then leave, and we get the backlash because they’re shooting from where we live. Ambulances, emergency services and utility services don’t come here. We’ve been abandoned.” (Kateryna Choursina : Bloomberg Business : June 15, 2015) (my emphasis)

And all that Zakharchenko (left) could say to the assembled protestors was that,

"Whatever was agreed in Minsk, I say that the Donetsk People's Republic in an independent country. I will not be part of Ukraine. I will be open with you. Yes we have to shoot from our territory. But thanks to our artillery shooting from near the 41st school, we destroyed a [Ukrainian] battery." (video ibid Rferl) (my emphasis)

Even more significant, Zakharchenko,

"... blamed Kyiv for the most recent hostilities and for the protest itself, claiming: "This rally was organized by the Ukrainian leadership." (ibid Rferl) (my emphasis)

True to form, and like Putin himself, he is sticking to the Kremlin mantra to, "blame everything on Ukraine".

And yet as recently as (06 June, 2015),

"[i]n an interview with an Italian newspaper (Corriere della Sera) (left) last week, Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, said the fact that the rebel territories were willing to remain inside Ukraine was “a sound precondition for the start of substantial negotiations". (ibid Tom Parfitt) (my emphasis)



Is this an indicator that Putin now realises that he has painted himself into a 'diplomatic' corner over his war with Ukraine, and that he is now developing an 'off ramp' by gingerly trying to loosen his ties with his rebel proxies in eastern Ukraine?

Whilst he may be trying to bamboozle the international community with his diplomatic 'maskirovka' strategy, let us not forget that he continues to reinforce his military occupation of eastern Ukraine by flooding it with sophisticated Russian weaponry and Russian soldiers.


President Obama has pointedly (June 08, 2015),

" .... accused President Vladimir Putin of wrecking Russia's economy in a doomed drive to re-create the glories of the Soviet empire" (RferlJune 08, 2015) (my emphasis)

 As a critical indicator of the dire straits in which Putin's Russian economy finds itself, Vladimir Isachenkov informs us that,

In this photo taken on Saturday, May  9, 2015, Russian T-14 Armata tanks make their way during the Victory Parade marking the 70th anniversary of the ..."President Vladimir Putin's expensive arms build-up faces major hurdles as Russia's economy sinks under the weight of Western sanctions and falling oil prices. The 22-trillion ruble (about $400-billion) program, which envisages the acquisition of 2,300 new tanks, hundreds of aircraft and missiles and dozens of navy ships, was conceived back at the time when Russia's coffers were brimming with petrodollars." (Associated Press [AP] : June 12, 2015) (my emphasis)

"In one of the first harbingers of the possible curtailment of new arms procurement, a deputy defense minister said earlier this year that the air force will likely reduce its order for the [Russian] T-50 [stealth fighter] (right), a costly state-of-the art fighter jet developed for two decades to counter the U.S. Raptor." (ibid Isachenkov) (my emphasis)

Added to which,

"Vladimir Putin is trying to bring Russian money back home.

The Russian president has granted an amnesty to people who come clean about the cash they stashed offshore before Jan. 1 -- provided they bring the assets back to Russia, or at least move them out of tax havens.

The new law, signed by Putin this week (June 9, 2015), is part of a package of measures aimed at keeping more of Russia's wealth in the country.


Businesses and wealthy individuals who choose to declare their foreign assets before the end of 2015 will avoid the risk of prosecution and a bill for tax arrears." (CNN Money : June 9, 2015) (my emphasis)

This belated amnesty of Putin comes on the heels of,

" ...... billions of dollars [from Russia] continue to disappear in offshore havens. The net outflow of capital from Russia reached $32.6 billion during the first quarter of 2015, according to the nation’s Central Bank.

The bank is now forecasting that capital flight may reach $131 billion by the end of the year." (Eurasianet : April 30, 2015)

Added to which,

"Russia will use 3 trillion rubles ($54 billion) from the Reserve Fund this year, including 500 billion rubles already taken to finance current spending, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov (left) said May 14. The fund’s holdings fell to $76.3 billion in May from $76.4 billion the previous month, according to the Finance Ministry.


Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev (right) also ordered the government last month to study the possibility of using the $75.9 billion National Wellbeing Fund to cover the pension fund’s deficit in 2016-2018. Russia is already planning to use the stockpile, originally created to cover long-term outlays for social spending, to finance infrastructure." (Olga Tanas : Bloomberg Business : June 5, 2015)

Having painted himself into a 'diplomatic' corner over his war with Ukraine, and with the Russian economy now in more than a mere parlous state due to falling oil prices and the effects of the ongoing sanctions that he has brought upon the head of the Russian people, Putin's 'maskirovka' strategies seem to be crumbling in his hands.


It is at this stage that he is at his most dangerous.

(to be continued)

Sunday 14 June 2015

Has Putin painted himself into a corner?

Putin must be 'spitting nails' now that his attempt to completely undermine the fragile Ukrainian economy has floundered on the rocks of his constant 'lying' about there being no 'Russian soldiers' fighting in eastern Ukraine.(cf:

Deutsche Welle (DW) reports that,

Christine Lagarde "IMF chief Christine Lagarde (right) has reassured Ukraine that funds can still be made available even if the country fails to repay its private creditors. She ruled out resorting to national reserves to avoid defaulting" (DW : 13.06.2015) (my emphasis)

And if this were not enough, US Ambassador Samantha Power (left), has stated that,

"America is clear-eyed when it comes to seeing the truth about Russia's destabilizing" actions in Ukraine, she said, adding that U.S. support for Ukrainians is "unwavering."

If Russia "continues to violate the rules upon which international peace and security" stands," Power said, then the United States will "raise the costs on Russia" and "rally other countries to do the same." (CNN: June 11, 2015) (my emphasis)

 Further wrong-footing Putin politically,

"In line with the Minsk blueprint, President Petro Poroshenko (right) announced Kiev would go ahead with local elections in Ukraine on Oct. 25 in a step intended to result in stronger powers being delegated to the regions." 

Adding that,

"Unfortunately, I am not ready to name a date for voting there (i.e. the eastern Ukraine territory held by Putin's Russian soldiers and his proxies). But I am sure that as soon as Moscow and the (separatist) fighters stop torpedoing them we will very quickly find mutual understanding, begin a political dialogue with the legally elected representatives ...", he said in a speech in Mariupol. (Richard Balmforth : Reuters : Thu Jun 11, 2015) (my emphasis)

And now, as reported by



That has set the stage for a pitched debate between lawmakers and the White House that could well undermine Mr. Obama’s repeated assertion that the United States sees no military solution to the conflict in Ukraine.” (New York Times : June 11, 2015)

Putin's only response to Lagarde, Power, Poroshenko and US lawmakers, is to escalate his Russian soldiers and proxies breaking of the Minsk2 'ceasefire'. 

Therefore is it any wonder that yesterday (Saturday 13 June 2015), 

"The Ukrainian military says six of its soldiers have been killed and 14 wounded in the past 24 hours in the separatist east of the country despite the current ceasefire.

The situation is particularly tense around the airport near the city of Donetsk, which is controlled by the rebels, the military spokesman Andriy Lysenko (left) said.

The enemy threw tanks, armoured personnel carriers and heavy artillery into battle. We emphasise that rebels are also firing at residential areas,” he said.

The casualties were the result of landmine explosions and shelling by the pro-Russia separatists, he added." (The Guardian : Saturday 13 June 2015) (my emphasis) (cf. also: Reuters)

At the same time, Christian Borys reports that,

"Russia’s repeated attempts to convince the international community and its own citizens that there are no Russian troops, or weapons in Ukraine have grown tiresome and farcical, especially when compared against the meticulously researched mountain of evidence to the contrary.



Shortly after Ukrainian troops captured two Russian Spetsnaz soldiers, a Ukrainian special forces unit of the Dnipro-1 Battalion shot down a $6 million Russian Forpost drone near Avdeevka in Eastern Ukraine. The Russian government was quick to distance itself from the soldiers, and even went so far as to parade their families in front of the media to deny their active status. However, the drone that was shot down that day is not something the Russian government can deny owning and operating." (Bellingcat : June 13, 2015) (my emphasis)

As Paul Niland  (left) comments,

"Russia is impotent. It cannot move any further than the territory it currently controls, as was demonstrated last week when Russian forces advanced alongside the few locals they have fighting for them on the town of Mariinka. The assault was instantly condemned and there were immediate comments from the right people about “increasing costs” to Russia." (KyivPost : June 13, 2015) (my emphasis)

Added to which,

"[Vice-Admiral James Foggo (right), deputy commander of U.S. naval forces Europe] is leading a 49-ship international fleet in an exercise in the Baltic Sea involving 17 NATO allies or partner nations with 61 aircraft and 5,600 personnel."

Furthermore, Admiral Foggo stated that,

"We are here with 49 ships right now and we are operating in areas all over the Baltic Sea," he said.

"I frequently operate in the Black Sea with destroyers from the Sixth Fleet, so no, they are not no-go areas, and we will continue to operate in both places." (Reuters : Fri Jun 12, 2015) (my emphasis)
 
 Putin's 'muscle flexing' against NATO does not quite seem to be having the effect that he expected.


(to be continued)

Thursday 11 June 2015

Putin is burning all his bridges behind him.

The abyss into which Putin has stepped has finally revealed the 'Black Swan' event that he has fallen into.

Just prior to the recent G7 Summit in Germany, Deutsche Welle (DW) informed us that,

USA Verteidigungsminister Ash Carter"[Ash] Carter (left) ... [met] in Stuttgart Friday (05.06.2015) with American defense and diplomatic officials to plan a strategy to address Russian aggression." (DW : 05.06.2015)

The article further points out that,

"US Defense Secretary Ash Carter  raised his concern in February about Russia's alleged violation of the 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces, or INF, treaty. Russia has allegedly been testing ground-launched cruise missiles with a range prohibited by the treaty." (ibid DW)  (my emphasis)  

Image result for ROBERT BURNS AP National Security Writer

The Obama administration is weighing a range of aggressive responses to Russia's alleged violation of a Cold War-era nuclear treaty, including deploying land-based missiles in Europe that could pre-emptively destroy the Russian weapons.

This "counterforce" option is among possibilities the administration is considering as it reviews its entire policy toward Russia in light of Moscow's military intervention in Ukraine, its annexation of Crimea and other actions the U.S. deems confrontational in Europe and beyond.
The options go so far as one implied - but not stated explicitly - that would improve the ability of U.S. nuclear weapons to destroy military targets on Russian territory. (AP : Jun 4, 2015)

Image result for dmitry peskov




Image result for latest russian nuclear missile launchers
June 05, 2015) (my emphasis) (right : Latest Russian Mobile launcher 'Yars' missile system)

Against this backdrop, President Obama re-affirmed at the recent G7 Summit that,

"The G7 remains strongly in support of Ukraine. ....  Every member of the G7 continues to maintain sanction on Russia ... Even as we continue to seek a diplomatic solution, sanctions against Russia will remain in place ..... Our European partners confirm that they will maintain sanctions .... which means maintaining the EU sectoral sanctions beyond July ... And the G7 is making it clear that, if necessary, we stand ready to impose additional significant sanctions against Russia"



Meanwhile,

"Putin [yesterday (10 June, 2015) travelled to] Italy to visit the Russian pavilion at the expo in Milan on Russia day (the Russian Federation’s national holiday) and .. then [headed] to Rome. His itinerary [included] meetings with Matteo Renzi, the Italian prime minister, Sergio Mattarella, the Italian president, and Pope Francis, whom Putin [met] at the apostolic palace in Vatican City in late afternoon." (Wed Jun 10, 2015)



However, as
  •  

Ukrainian PM Blasts Separatists: ‘We Will Never Talk to Terrorists’ in Washington yesterday (,




"..







nominally agreed to remain within Ukraine under the Minsk peace plan negotiated in February. Leaders have previously said reintegration with Ukraine is impossible." (Roland Oliphant : The Telegraph : 09 Jun 2015)





Added to which, John Follain tells us that,

Pope Francis and Vladimir Putin"Pope Francis waited for more than an hour to tell Russian President Vladimir Putin to commit to peace and dialogue on Ukraine.

Putin kept the leader of 1.2 billion Catholics waiting for 70 minutes -- a rare occurrence at the Vatican." (Bloomberg Business : June 10, 2015)

Is it any wonder that their meeting got off to a chilly start?
(to be continued)