President Trump and Putin banking on political upsets in the upcoming EU elections in Germany, France, and Holland.

At the World Economic Forum, 17-20 January 2017 at  Davos-Klosters in Switzerland, Poroshenko was optimistic about the then president-elect Trump's attitude towards Ukraine.

Now that President Trump is in the driving seat at the White House, and bearing in mind that key 'advisors' he appointed to his cabinet are very sympathetic towards Putin, especially Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Chief Strategist Steve Bannon, and behind-the-scenes Paul Manafort, is Poroshenko's optimism that President Trump will maintain US sanctions against Putin realistic? (left: Manafort, Tillerson, Bannon)

As Guy Faulconbridge and William James have reported,

"U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will propose offering to end sanctions imposed on Russia over its annexation of Crimea in return for a nuclear arms reduction deal with Moscow, he told The Times of London." (Reuters : Mon Jan 16, 2017) (my emphasis)

It is interesting to note that Putin's main claim to Russia as a 'superpower' lies precisely in the fact that Russia is a formidable nuclear power. 

Furthermore, in June 2015,
 
"President Vladimir Putin has said Russia will put more than 40 new intercontinental ballistic missiles into service this year.
...
Speaking at an arms fair, Mr Putin said the weapons would be able to overcome even the most technically advanced anti-missile defence systems." (BBC News :  16 June 2015) (my emphasis) (cf. also: Simon Shuster, April 2016)

 Yet, as Nick Allen and Roland Oliphant reported in December of last year,

"In comments that alarmed non-proliferation experts and undermined decades of US nuclear policy Mr Trump said: "Let it be an arms race".

The United States must greatly strengthen and expand its nuclear capability until such time as the world comes to its senses regarding nukes

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 22, 2016

We will outmatch them at every pass and outlast them all." (Daily Telegraph : 23 December, 2016) (my emphasis)

What President Trump tweeted about nuclear arms in December 2016, and what he proposed in January 2017, does not quite seem to match up.

If anything, his alarming December tweet seems to flatly contradict his January proposal.

What this seems to indicate is that President Trump is putting foreward this proposal of a 'Nuclear Arms Deal' between himself and Putin as a justification for his determination to lift the US sanctions against Russia for its illegal annexation of Ukrainian Crimea and for Russia's invasion of eastern Ukraine (Donbas).

In so doing, Trump's proposal will further increase the clarion call of the populist political movements in the EU that the EU sanctions against Putin and his 'siloviki' clique be similarly lifted.

In his interview in Davos (see video above) Poroshenko hinted at the emerging opposing views between the EU and President Trump.

"This is very simple question because all the time I'm telling that we Ukraine ... and me as Ukrainian President ...need from European Union ... not only Germany ... just two things ... First is a unity ...this is the vital not only for Ukraine but for the European Union itself ...  but also for the world .."

Hovering dangerously in the background is President Trump's attitude towards NATO.

As reported by James Masters and Katie Hunt,

"Donald Trump's accusation that NATO is "obsolete" has led to "astonishment and agitation" within the alliance, Germany's foreign minister has said.
....

Trump used the interview to restate his doubts about NATO. "I said a long time ago that NATO had problems," he said in the interview.

...

"Number one it was obsolete, because it was designed many, many years ago." (CNN : January 17, 2017) (me emphasis)

Theresa May (left), British PM, who will be visiting President Trump within the next few days,
 
" ... said she was sure that the new president “recognises the importance and significance of Nato”. She added: “I’m also confident the USA will recognise the importance of the co-operation we have in Europe to ensure our collective defence and collective security.” (Financial Times : 20 January, 2017)

Underscoring British recognition of the importance and significance of Nato,

"Defence Secretary Sir Michael Fallon (right) has said that the United Kingdom stands firmly alongside Ukraine as the British Army prepares to broaden its already extended training package to all of the country’s armed forces.
...
Speaking in Ukraine’s capital Kyiv, on his second trip to the country in 18 months, Sir Michael said that the UK is beginning to deliver training to Ukraine’s Air Force as well as its Army and Navy." (UK Gov. : 20 January 2017)

Whether Theresa May will be able to pursuade President Trump about the importance of NATO remains to be seen.

Meanwhile, during a conference call,

"The leaders of Germany, France and Russia agreed on [Wed Jan 18, 2017] to continue working toward a peaceful resolution of the conflict in eastern Ukraine under four-way peace talks that include Kiev, a spokesman for German Chancellor Angela Merkel said." (Reuters : Wed Jan 18, 2017)

Given that France, Germany, and the Netherlands will soon be having elections for the Presidency of France, the Chancellorship of Germany, and a general election in the Netherlands, respectively, will the Minsk2 peace talks between Merkel, Hollande, Putin, and Poroshenko really achieve any viable results?

Everything is in Putin's favour.

Now that he has President Trump covering his back, it is worth his while to drag out these talks about the implementation of Minsk2 until such time as these EU elections are over.

Merkels chances of being re-elected in Germany are fairly high. But let us not forget that so were the chances of Hilary Clinton.

Franscoise Hollande will soon be enjoying his retirement and, who knows, the financial support that Putin is giving to his close friend, Marine Le Pen, may also upset the political apple-cart in France.

And then there is Geert Wilders, the current right-wing populist darling of the Dutch electorate, who will be standing on a platform of a Dutch 'Brexit' from the EU. (right: Marine Le Pen and Geert Wilders)

It is therefore in the interest of Putin to continue to drag out talks about Minsk2.

And if Marine Le Pen and Geert Wilders succeed in their respective elections this will give President Trump added ammunition to scrap the US sanctions against Putin and his 'siloviki'

Is President Trump now also waiting for the outcome of these EU elections before he makes a final pronouncement about the US position on Ukraine? 

(to be continued)

The Donald Trump-Vladimir Putin 45th Presidency of the US

Today, Donald Trump-Vladimir Putin has become the 45th President of the US.

(to be continued)

Ukraine and NATO under threat by Trump's remarks, which pleases Putin

Whilst the world is now focussing on the imminent inauguration of Donald Trump as President of the US, Unian reports that,

"Combined Russian-separatist forces attacked Ukrainian army positions in Donbas 41 times in the past 24 hours with one Ukrainian soldier reported as wounded in action (WIA), according to the press service of the Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO) Headquarters.

...

The enemy continued shelling of the Ukrainian positions in all directions. In the Mariupol sector, the militants fired 82mm mortars on the village of Pavlopil, as well as grenade launchers and small arms on the towns of Maryinka and Krasnohorivka, and the villages of Pavlopil, Hnutove, Vodiane and Shyrokyne." (Unian : 17 January, 2017) (my emphasis)

And as the war between Putin and Ukraine continues, US Vice-President Biden has paid his last visit to Ukraine, urging

"...the international community to maintain its unity against the background of Russian aggression, an UNIAN correspondent reported from Biden’s joint presser with President Petro Poroshenko in Kyiv." (Unian : 16 January 2017)(my emphasis)

Biden further urged that,

"The Donald Trump administration should be a strong supporter and partner of Ukraine, U.S. Vice President Joe Biden said on a visit to Kiev Monday. 

 

Asked if he had received any assurances that Trump would place a similar priority on Ukraine as Barack Obama had done, Biden said “hope springs eternal.” ( Gašper Završnik (right): Politico : 16/1/2017) (my emphasis)

The answer to Biden's question can be gleaned from the interview between Trump and The "Times" and "Bild" newspaper columnists yesterday.

During this interview Trump raised alarms in the EU by stating that,

"Can you understand why eastern Europeans fear Putin and Russia?
Sure. Oh sure, I know that. I mean, I understand what’s going on, I said a long time ago — that Nato had problems. Number one it was obsolete, because it was, you know, designed many, many years ago." (justpaste : 17/01/2017)

To which CNN reports that,

"[Walter] Steinmeier [German Foreign Minister] said he had spoken with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, "who is concerned that President-elect Trump regards NATO as obsolete."

He also noted Trump's position was "in contradiction" to that of James Mattis, Trump's nominee for defense secretary." (CNN : January 16, 2017) (my emphasis)

Is it any surprise that Dmitry Peskov, Putin's Kremlin mouthpiece,

" .... agreed with Trump's assessment of NATO, saying on Monday that "the systematic goal of this organization is confrontation." (ibid CNN) 

 What we shoud bear in mind is that NATO is supporting Ukraine in its war with Putin. 
 
Poroshenko has couched his concerns at Trump's remark about an 'obsolete NATO' in more diplomatic tones.

"[Ukraine President Poroshenko] noted that the risk of spoiling the achievements of postwar cooperation and rolling decades back is high as never before. This always happens when respect to principles, values and international law is lost, said the president. (Unian : 17 January 2017)

Which brings us back to Trump's statement that "NATO is obsolete", and Putin 'jumping with glee' at Trump's remark.

Unian reports that,
 

"Russia is preparing for a full-scale regional war, Russian military expert Pavel Felgenhauer opined, commenting on Russian drills Zapad-2017, which provide for the deployment of personnel of the newly re-created 1st Guards Tank Army of the Western Military District in Belarus, News.online.ua reported." (Unian : 16 January 2017)

 As Felgenhauer (right) speculates,

"Whom could such a mobilization be aimed against? – It is too many people for Syria. It is also too much for the Baltic States, and it would be a suicide against the West to concentrate troops so tightly that they can be annihilated just like Saddam Hussein's army in Iraq. There's only Ukraine that is remaining. This does not mean though that there will be a war, but the preparations by the Russian Federation to a big regional war are in full swing." (ibid Unian) (my emphasis)

This may, indeed be speculation.

However, Trump's interview with The Times/Bild leaves much to be very anxious about.

(to be continued)

The scarlet thread of Maidan continues wrap itself around Donald Trump's bromance with Putin.

The scarlet thread of the Maidan revolution continues to weave itself through the turbulence of the last few days of Donald Trump before he is given the keys to the White House next week.

This is no more apparent than during the US Senate confirmation hearing of Rex Tillerson, ex Exxon CEO, and Trump's choice for US Secretary of State.

From the very start of the hearing, Democratic leader Senator Cardin voiced deep concerns about Tillerson's move from the CEO of Exxon to the Head of the US State Department.

Senator Cardin further placed Putin's political machinations in other countries centre stage, mentioning not only his direct interference in the US presidential elections, but also his invasion of eastern Ukraine and his annexation of  Ukrainian Crimea.

Throughout these hearings the question of Putin's invasion of eastern Ukraine (Donbas), and his annexation of Ukrainian Crimea, was a constant theme in the questioning of many members of the US Senate who were on the confirmation committee. (The full video of Tillerson's confirmation hearing can be found here. Part 1 and Part 2)

Senator Menendez, in particular, mentioned not only Putin's illegal annexation of Ukrainian Crimea and his invasion of eastern Ukraine but, more importantly, the use of sanctions to deter such behaviour that flies in the face of international law.

Senator Menendez Part 1

 Senator Menendez Part 2

We now learn that recently,

"Mr Trump told the Wall Street Journal that newly-imposed sanctions on Russia would remain "at least for a period of time" but could then be lifted.

In his interview, Mr Trump said sanctions on Russia could be lifted if Moscow helped Washington in the war against Islamic extremism and in other matters.

"If you get along and if Russia is really helping us, why would anybody have sanctions if somebody's doing some really great things?" 

He said he hoped a meeting with President Vladimir Putin would be arranged." (BBC News : 14/01/2017) (my emphasis)

Interestingly, Republican Senator Marco Rubio raised with Tillerson during his confirmation hearing the very issue of the recent sanctions of President Obama against Russia following the disclosure that Putin authorised the cyber-hacking during the US presidential elections.

Tillerson's then evasive answers somewhat dovetails with Trump's recent statement that,

"If you get along and if Russia is really helping us, why would anybody have sanctions if somebody's doing some really great things?"  (ibid BBC)

In the final session, and towards the end, of Tillerson's confirmatiom hearing, the scarlet thread of the Maidan revolution continued to weave itself into this hearing.

Yet again did Republican Senator Marco Rubio raise the issue of the sanctions against Putin and his cronies that resulted from his illegal annexation of Ukrainian Crimea, and his invasion of eastern Ukraine (Donbas)

 
Even Donald Trump himself cannot rid himself of the sanctions fallout that Putin brought upon himself and his 'siloviki', AND the Russian people, when he so arrogantly boasted before the Russian people of his annexation of Ukrainian Crimea.

Donald Trump may easily undo President Obama's recent sanctions against Putin's underlings, who obeyed his orders to bolster Trump's chances of gaining the US presidency through the systemmatic hacking of the computers of the Democratic Party.

For Trump to undo the sanctions against Putin because of his war with Ukraine, and his annexation of Ukrainian Crimea, is entirely another matter.

Even his appointment of Steve Bannon as one of his senior advisors, and who continues to assiduously cultivate right-wing and populist political organizations all over the EU,  cannot be sure that these organizations will achieve the political power that they so dearly seek.

The governments of the EU are now galvanised to prevent Putin from similarly interfering in their elections in support of the EU's right-wing and populist political organizations.

Already last month David M. Herszenhorn (left) reported that,

"European governments are bracing for cyber-meddling by Moscow in upcoming national elections in France, the Netherlands and Germany." (Politico : 13 Dec. 2016) (my emphasis)

He further reported that,

 "...in recent weeks, there were reports of a Russian-directed false news campaign aimed at defeating the December 4 constitutional referendum in Italy. Voters rejected the changes, prompting the resignation of Prime Minister Matteo Renzi." (ibid Herszenhorn) (my emphasis)

We now live in an age of what is fast coming to be known as the age of cyber warfare.

This weaponising of information is, what Peter Pomerantsev (right) describes as,

"Instead of ushering [in] a new era of truth-telling, the information age allows lies to spread in what techies call ‘digital wildfires’. By the time a fact-checker has caught a lie, thousands more have been created, and the sheer volume of ‘disinformation cascades’ make unreality unstoppable. All that matters is that the lie is clickable, and what determines that is how it feeds into people’s existing prejudices" (Granta : 20th July 2016) (my emphasis)

 And so the scarlet thread of Maidan continues wrap itself around Donald Trump's bromance with Putin.

What's sauce for the goose

Is sauce for the gander

(to be continued)

Trump is emulating 'the Putin way' in forcing the US Senate to confirm his cabinet nominees.

Nepotism is defined as,

"The practice among those with power or influence of favouring relatives or friends, especially by giving them jobs" (Oxford Dictionary)

Using his powers as Head of the Committee for External Relations in the St Petersburg Administration during the late 1990's,  Putin became the central figure of,

"The dacha cooperative Ozero, which was founded on November 10, 1996 by Vladimir Smirnov (head), Vladimir Putin, Vladimir Yakunin, Andrei Fursenko, Sergey Fursenko, Yury Kovalchuk, Viktor Myachin, and Nikolay Shamalov.

This initial gang of Putin's has expanded to include other key figures in his Kremlin administration.

The initial gang are, to this day, are still fully in control of the FINANCES (Rossiya Bank) of his now expanded gang.

The late Boris Nemtsov exposed not only the nepotistic nature of this gang, but the high degree of nepotism that afforded even the children of this gang to become very rich and powerful.

Whilst there are, indeed, many checks and balances in the US constitution to prevent any president from abusing his powers through nepotism, or by surrounding himself with a coterie of friends rather than with those men and women who are admirably qualified and motivated to serve the American public to the best of their abilities, nonetheless president-elect Trump seems to have choosen to attempt to follow 'the Putin way'.

Besides the consternation that has been caused by his many 'Putin-friendly' inner-circle advisors that he has appointed, Trump has now gone one step further by having his nominated cabinet members ratified by the US Senate without most of them having gone through the complete process of the many background checks that they are obliged to go through eg FBI Checks, Financial checks, CIA checks, amongst others.

 
Added to which, Trump has appointed his son-in-law to his 'inner circle advisors', in much the same way as Putin doled out plum jobs to some of both his cousins and his 'siloviki's' children.

 
For the future of Ukraine, this vetting process is crucial. 

In the words of Senator John McCaine,

"I'm very concerned about what this administration's attitude or behaviour towards Vladimir Putin will be.

I've just came back with Amy Kovachar(?) and (Senator) Lindsey Graham from the Baltics ... Georgia ... Ukraine ... and I'm telling you they are very very worried there about what America will be and whether we will continue to have the strong relationship with them which will help them resist Vladimir Putin's effort to destabilise them"

Will Trump succeed in forcing the US Senate hearings to give way to his following 'the Putin way'?

(to be contined)

Putin and Trump now the protectors of Victor Yanukovich

Whilst the airwaves and the internet are being flooded with Putin's success in getting his 'joined-at- the-hip-twin', Donald Trump, elected president of the US, less attention has been focussed on even more strategic goals of Putin concerning the upcoming elections in many critical EU states in 2017.

As David M. Herszenhorn (left) reported in mid-December of last year,

"European governments are bracing for cyber-meddling by Moscow in upcoming national elections in France, the Netherlands and Germany.
...
In a remarkable two-page warning late last week, Hans-Georg Maaßen, the head of Germany’s Federal Office for Protection of the Constitution, a domestic security agency, said there was a clear threat from Russian hackers seeking to sow “uncertainty in German society” and to destabilize the country.
...
In France, Marine Le Pen, the leader of the far-right National Front, has admitted taking an €11 million loan from a Russian bank, and had hoped to get much more. But Russian cyber-operatives might be just as content to aid the conservative candidate François Fillon, who is known as a long-time defender of Russia and a critic of Western sanctions against the Kremlin." (Politico : 13/12/16) (my emphasis)

And as recently as yesterday,

"German politicians, press and police officials say news report from the U.S. right-wing news website Breitbart that suggested a “mob” had “chanted ‘Allahu Akhbar’” and set fire to a church in Dortmund have been greatly exaggerated.
 ...
Local newspaper Ruhr Nachrichten, which published reports on events that happened on New Year’s Eve, said [Breitbart's] online reporting had been distorted to produce “fake news, hate and propaganda.” (Laurens Cerulus : Politico : 1/7/17) (my emphasis)

And Trump's appointed Chief Strategist is none other than Steve Bannon (right), former chairman of Breitbart News!

 Frances Burwell (left) correctly sums up Putin's strategy to affect the German, French, and Dutch elections in this year as,

"This year will see elections in the Netherlands, France, Germany, and perhaps Italy. By not responding to US sanctions with a tit-for-tat, Putin undoubtedly hopes to sway opinion in Europe, convincing voters that he is not a threat.

His ultimate goal of course is the removal of European and US sanctions on Russia, imposed for its actions in Ukraine, including the annexation of Crimea." (The Telegraph : 5 January 2017) (my emphasis)

Putin's avid supporters in the EU are, no doubt, lapping up Trump's 'tweeting' offensive in support of Putin, no matter what the true facts of any event may be that implicates Putin in generating not only fake news but, more importantly, generating 'conspiracy theories'.

Putin has morphed the old 'maskirovka' strategy of Russian generals into the cyber age.

There is another dimension to the Putin-Trump connection that has, somehow, been lost to many political commentators. 

I refer, of course, to the seminal exposure by Karen Dawisha of Putin's connection to the Russian Mafia during his political baptism in St. Petersburg in the 1990's. (cf pp 126-132 : Putin' Kleptocracy. Who Owns Russia?)

Putin's Kleptocracy : Published 6 October 2014 Woodrow Wilson Centre: Youtube Discussion

What is now becoming public is Trump's connection to the American Mafia in the 1980's and 1990's.  

(cf: link for full interview)

 
Then of course, we have the criminal background of Vicor Yanukovich, who now enjoys the protection of Putin, and who has stolen billions ...... yes ..... billions of $'s from Ukraine .... helped by none other than Paul Manafort to become president of Ukraine, a former, AND CURRENT, advisor to .... yes ... you guessed it ... Donald Trump. (pic: Manafort left : Trump Right)

The Ukrainians, having rid themselves of Yanukovich, now find themselves in the un-envious position of having to contemplate the fact that Victor Yanukovich is now being protected by both Putin and Trump.

As the old saying goes,

Birds of a feather,

Flock together.

(to be continued)

Will a president Trump give Putin the "green light" to complete his invasion of Mariupol?

As the day draws closer when Donald Trump will receive the keys to the White House and the Oval Office, the "tweet" diplomacy of Trump continues to confound and scare many, especially in his growing 'spat' with US Intelligence agencies over Putin's interference in the US presidential elctions.

At 5:14 pm - 3 Jan 2017 yet another Trump "tweet", in which he disparaged the US Intelligence Agencies that will soon be under his command, hit the internet ether.

And then, at 4:22 am (US Time) yesterday morning Trump tweeted yet again, only this time, as reported by Julian Borger,

"Leading Republicans broke with Donald Trump on Wednesday after the president-elect appeared to put more faith in WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange than in US intelligence agencies.

The sharp differences on a highly charged national security issue are the latest sign that matters of intelligence and policy towards Russia reflect a deep fault line in Trump’s relationship with the Republican party establishment." (The Guardian : Thursday 5 January 2017) (my emphasis)

As reported by Steve Benen,

"John McCain (pic: right) and Lindsey Graham (pic: left) are backing off of their push for a select committee on cybersecurity after Russian interference in the election, bowing to the political reality that the Senate Republican Conference largely does not back their idea. […]

...McCain said he’d spoken to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) about the matter. McConnell prefers to use the Intelligence Committee to spearhead the cyber investigation, and McCain said their discussions had done little to move the GOP leader. “He said he doesn’t think we need it,” McCain said." (MSNBC : 04/01/17) (my emphasis)

John McCain, a staunch supporter of Ukraine, and Chairman of the US Armed Services Committee, must now be weighing up his chances of getting president-elect Donald Trump to arm Ukraine with lethal weaponry against Putin's armed forces in eastern Ukraine (Donbas), a persistent call of his that has always fallen on the deaf ears of President Obama. 

The implications for Ukraine of Trump's current "tweets" are already being incorporated into Putin's next moves in his war with Ukraine.

As reported yesterday by Mansur Mirovalev (left), a Moscow-based writer and video journalist who covers wars and peace in the former Soviet Union,

"In 2013, the North Crimean Canal drew 1.5 million cubic meters of water. It amounted to about 85 percent of Crimea's drinking and irrigation water. But shortly after the annexation, Ukrainian authorities shut the canal with a hastily-built dam. 

[T]he water blockade will wrack Crimea's agriculture, economy and population of 2.3 million for years to come, according to environmentalists, irrigation experts and officials.

Chronic water shortages in Crimea seem inevitable - and may prompt resettlement of its residents to Russia, they warn.

"Hundreds of thousands will have to be relocated," Vladimir Garnachuk, political activist and head of Clean Coast Crimea, a non-profit monitor, told Al Jazeera . "Soon, we will see dust storms with salt that will move to the centre of Crimea." (Aljazeera : 4/1/2017) (my emphasis)

The critical question now for Ukrainian President Poroshenko is,

"Will a president Trump give Putin the "green light" to complete his invasion of Mariupol so that Putin can relieve the Ukrainian "water blockade" of Ukrainian annexed Crimea and, at the same time, have his land-bridge between Ukrainian Crimea and Russia?"


(to be continued)

The Maidan revolution is coming to haunt Putin.

Oh! What a tangled web we weave,

When first we practice to deceive!

Remember when Putin invaded Ukrainian Crimea and the Donbas in 2014, and then proudly announced to the assembled Russian political 'glitterati' that Ukrainian Crimea is now part of the Russian Federation? 

For Putin in 2014, the Maidan revolution was merely a mosquito which he thought he had swatted to death by simply annexing Ukrainian Crimea and openly invading Ukraine in the Donbas.

Then came the US-EU sanctions, and he faltered somewhat, having always believed that he had all the political aces up his sleeve.

But Putin, being Putin, simply whipped up a fervent nationalist sentiment amongst the Russian people and his puppet sidekick, Dmitry Medvedev, simply told them to 'tighten their belts'.

As reported in 2016 by the BBC,

"During a walkabout, Medvedev was confronted by a pensioner who complained about the government's failure to index pensions. The prime minister replied: "There is no money. But be strong. All the best. Have a good day, and good health," he added. Then he turned round and left." (BBC : 9th June, 2016) (my emphasis)

Enter the 2016 US presidential elections or, should I say, enter Donald Trump.

Putin simply could not contain himself when Trump commented that,

"If he says great things about me, I'm going to say great things about him," the Republican nominee said.
"I've already said he is very much of a leader. The man has very strong control over his country."(Allan Smith : Business Insider UK : Sep. 10, 2016) (my emphasis)

So Putin decided to "give Trump a leg up" in his presidential race against Hillary Clinton by hacking into the US Democratic Party computers and then letting Julian Assange, still holed up in the Ecuadorian Embassy in London, release just that hacked information that will help Trump win the presidential race.

Assange, whose hatred of Hillary Clinton knew no bounds, duly complied with Putin's wishes, and then arrogantly used a reporters' legal right not to divulge the source of their information as a fig-leaf to cover up the fact that he received his  'hacked' information directly from the Kremlin.  

Putin thought that he was 'home and dry' when Donald Trump received nearly 3 million popular votes less than Hillary Clinton but received an overwhelming amount of Electoral College votes that ultimately made him the president-elect.

Donald Trump will be inaugurated as the next president of the US on January 20th, 2017.

And now, ironically, the Maidan revolution that precipitated the sanctions regime against Putin and his cronies when Putin annexed Ukrainian Crimea and started his war with Ukraine, has wiped the smile off the faces of both Putin and Donald Trump.

President Barak Obama has just expelled 35 Russian diplomats about the row over the hacking of the US Democratic Party computers, and the release of specific information that they hacked by Julian Assange.

And those Maidan precipitated sanctions have now been increased!

 

The fact that President Obama has given the expelled Russian diplomats ONLY 3 DAYS to leave the US has boxed in both Putin and Trump.

Around this 'sanctions-boxing-in' of Trump and Putin, Obama has placed barbed wire.

Trump CANNOT unwind this barbed wire to release Putin from these sanctions WITHOUT, in the words of Adam Schiff (watch video below), Californian Cogressman and member of the House Intelligence Committee,

"There's gonna come a time when President Trump is gonna have to come before the American people and explain why he's gonna take action vis a vis .. and it could be Russia or Iran or North Korea or China ... and he's gonna want to say that this is on the basis of the intelligence that he's received .. and he's not gonna want to have to share that intelligence.

So for him to belittle the quality of the work that the intelligence community does will ultimately belittle his own presidency, his own effectiveness, and call it into question.

So he's already ... I think ... damaging the country ... but he's also going to damage his own potential success ..."

The web of deceit that Putin has spun since the Maidan revolution is now coming to haunt him. 

No amount of Kissinger's and Tillerson's can give Putin relief  from the barbed wire that Obama has now spun around him.

The simple fact is that Putin now dare not tread on the toes of Trump because Trump, himself, has been boxed-in by Obama.

Oh! What a tangled web we weave,

When first we practice to deceive!

Young girl at Maidan

(to be continued)

(post script)

It did not take long for Putin to gingerly try to extricate himself from the barbed wire around Obama's actions.

This blog entry was posted on 30/12/2016 at 15:34 GMT.

Since then Putin has realised that he has to "tiptoe" around president-elect Donald Trump.

As the BBC has just reported 55 minutes ago (Current time: 19.22 GMT),

"Russian President Vladimir Putin has ruled out a tit-for-tat response after the US expelled 35 Russian diplomats amid a row over hacking.

He said Russia would not "stoop" to the level of "irresponsible diplomacy" but would work to restore ties with the US under President-elect Donald Trump.

Russia's foreign ministry had formally asked Mr Putin to expel 35 US envoys.
The country denies involvement in hacking related to the US election, calling US sanctions "ungrounded".

Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev accused the outgoing US administration of President Barack Obama of ending in "anti-Russian death throes". (BBC News : 30/12/2016)

The BBC further reports that,

"In a statement on the Kremlin website (in Russian), Mr Putin said: "We won't be expelling anyone.

"We won't be banning their families and children from the places where they usually spend the New Year holidays. Furthermore, I invite all children of American diplomats accredited in Russia to the New Year and Christmas Tree in the Kremlin."

He wished Barack Obama and his family a happy New Year, as well as Mr Trump and "the whole American people".

In a message on the presidential website, Mr Putin said that, with the accession of Mr Trump, "the two states, acting in a constructive and pragmatic manner, can take real steps for restoration of mechanisms for bilateral co-operation". (ibid BBC)


Does Putin not realise that such "fawning" behaviour towards Donald Trump has simply increased the barbed wire that Obama has spun around him? 


(to be continued)

Will Henry Kissinger and Rex Tillerson bury Minsk2 for Putin?

" Even when he dominated US foreign policy at the height of the Cold War, the Harvard professor [Henry Kissinger (left)] with the distinctive German accent was also a media celebrity with a reputation as a ladies’ man. “Power is the ultimate aphrodisiac,” he once noted, dryly."

So wrote Philip Sherwell about Henry Kissinger just before his 88th birthday. (The Telegraph : 21 May 2011) (my emphasis)

Now, in his 93rd year, Kissinger has been given another dose of 'political viagra' by none other than Donald Trump.

As Nahal Toosi and Isaac Arnsdorf report,

"Now, as Donald Trump signals that he wants a more cooperative relationship with Moscow, the 93-year-old Kissinger is positioning himself as a potential intermediary — meeting with the president-elect in private and flattering him in public. (Politico : Dec 24, 2016) (my emphasis)

What is of particular interest as Kissinger once again elbows himself towards the 'centre stage' on the geoplitical front is the fact that,

"He believes that rapprochement with Russia is the right move to position itself against the increasing militarization of China. A balance between America and Russia would strengthen global stability." (UT : Dec. 27, 2016) (my emphasis)

Kissinger further believes that,

"The core of the idea is that Russia guarantees the security of the eastern Ukraine, gradually withdrawing from there. The West, in return, does not interfere with the Crimean question.

The occupation of the Ukrainian peninsula [Crimea] is not officially recognized - but should not be an issue between Moscow and Washington, Kissinger recommends. (ibid UT) (my emphasis)

In effect, Kissinger is telling Trump to simply ignore the fact that Putin annexed Crimea, contrary to international law, and in so doing actually giving Putin a fig-leaf of international respectability for seizing some of the territory of an independent country.

But this was not always the case with Kissinger.

In 2014, when Putin invaded and annexed Crimea, and then rolled his troops into the Donbas, Kissinger stated that,

"The situation has gone very far, and Russia is using military pressures which we cannot accept.

And therefore it is appropriate for us to insist that the military pressures cease..... We cannot permit a country to be dismembered ..... (video below)

By April of 2015 Kissinger was giving a slanted historical justification (see video below) for Putin's annexation of Ukrainian Crimea, claiming that Ukrainian Crimea had ALWAYS been part of Russia, seemingly forgetting that Cathering the Great, the minor German princess who became ruler of Russia, also annexed Crimea in 1783 after wresting it from the Crimean Tatars.

It then also became a vassal of Russia. (cf Wikipedia [1], [2]

And now, in 2016, Kissinger, who has met Putin on many occasions, not only supports Trump's views about Putin, but also recommends,

".... recognizing the dominance of Russia in the former Soviet republics of Belarus, Ukraine, Georgia and Kazakhstan. This means: The US politically confers Russia's space between Poland / Baltics and Iran, Afghanistan and China as a sphere of influence." (ibid UT) (my emphasis)

Does Kissinger, together with Rex Tillerson, the prospective US Secretary of State appointed by Trump, spell the end of the Maidan revolution?

Does this duo of Kissinger and Tillerson also spell the end of US sanctions against Putin, even in the light of,

"The European Union has extended sanctions against Russia for its actions in Ukraine for another six months.

The European Council formally approved the extension on December 19 after EU leaders agreed to the move at a summit last week.

"The council prolonged the economic sanctions targeting specific sectors of the Russian economy until July 31, 2017," the council said in a statement"? (RFE/RL : December 19, 2016) (my emphasis)

Will the duo of Kissinger and Tillerson also hammer the final nail in the coffin of Minsk2 for Putin?

(to be continued)

Obama's "Kennedy moment" before he leaves the White House will fashion how Trump 'deals' with Putin's war with Ukraine.

In my very first blog entry "Putin andUkraine" (10/06/2014) I wrote that,

"As reported in the Russian press, during a session of the board of the FSB security service in Moscow on April 7, 2014, Putin urged that,

“We [the FSB] must clearly differentiate between legal opposition activity, as is in every democratic country, and extremism, which is built on hatred, inciting national and international discord, and defying the law and the constitution [of Russia]”.....(below: Putin addressing the FSB 2014) ,

These words ring hollow in international ears when currently applied to Ukraine because his Russian groups of provocateurs that have currently infiltrated Donetsk, Luhansk, and Kharkiv were actively inciting national discord, hatred, and defying the law and the constitution of Ukraine in an attempt to dismember Ukraine before the impending presidential elections of May 25th 2014. (first blog entry) (my emphasis)

I further remarked that,

"Unlike George Bush, who saw a sort of kindred soul when looking into Putin's eyes, Colin Powell was correct when he remarked that when he sees Putin he sees KGB."(ibid first blog entry)

More recently, Colin Powell once again stated that,

“I know Vladimir Putin well,” General Colin Powell said during a recent appearance at Harvard University. “He’s KGB through and through.” (Belfer Center : Fall/Winter 2015-2016) (my emphasis) (left: Colin Powell speaking at Belfer Center)

It should therefore come as no surprise that what Putin did to influence the Ukrainian presidential elections in 2014 he has now repeated in the US presidential elections of 2016, using 'cyber warfare' tactics instead of Kremlin-paid provocateurs.

RT has also been assiduously infiltrating the American public with 'conspiracy theory' T.V. to try and sow discord amongst the American public, discord that has found many eager ears and eyes as evidenced by such internet TV programs as the "Infowars" website run by Alex Jones, who regularly appeared on RT as an 'expert', and by whom Trump was rather sycophanticly interviewed in December of 2015 (Published on Youtube on 2 Dec 2015)

 

Trump is now the president-elect of the US. And throughout his election campaign he displayed an admiration for Putin, that even led him to call upon Putin to,

“Russia, if you’re listening, I hope you’re able to find the 30,000 emails that are missing,” Mr. Trump said during a news conference here in an apparent reference to Mrs. Clinton’s deleted emails. “I think you will probably be rewarded mightily by our press.” (Ashley Parker and David E. Sanger : New York Time : July 27, 2016) (my emphasis)

Putin obliged Trump by hacking into the Democratic computers during the presidential elections, giving all their 'hacked' data to Julian Assange of Wikileaks to publish on the internet, and which is now backfiring on Trump.

Recall that Paul Manafort wrote the 'Ukraine election script' for Victor Yanukovich in his presidential election against Yulia Tymoshenko in 2010, and for which he was handsomely paid.

Then in April 2016, Trump terminated campaign manager Corey Lewandowski and promoted Manafort to the position. Manafort gained control of the daily operations of the campaign as well as an expanded $20 million budget, hiring decisions, advertising, and media strategy. (Wikipedia)

No doubt, Manafort brought some of his experience in the Ukrainian presidential elections to bear on the Trump campaign.

Manafort was, however, forced to resign as Trump's campaign manger when it was revealed that,

"Earlier this week the Ukrainian National Anti-Corruption Bureau claimed a secret ledger showed Mr Manafort had been earmarked $12.7 million in off-the-books cash payments from the pro-Russian political party of Viktor Yanukovych, Ukraine's former president." (Harriet Alexander : The Telegraph : 19 August 2016) (my emphasis)

It was also revealed by Peter Stone, David Smith, Ben Jacobs, Alec Luhn and Rupert Neate that,

"For his part, Paul Manafort has been closely tied to Ukraine over the past decade, making millions from consulting work. He worked for Rinat Akhmetov, Dmitry Firtash and Oleg Deripaska, three major pro-Russia oligarchs, as an adviser." (The Guardian : Saturday 30 July 2016) (my emphasis) ((top) Manafort and Deripaska (bottom) Akhmetov and Firtash)

And now, as reported by Gregory Krieg and Jamie Gangel, 

"Paul Manafort has reemerged as a player in the fight to shape the new [Trump] administration, senior Republicans with knowledge of the transition tell CNN on Thursday, after resigning under pressure as the chairman of Donald Trump's campaign this summer. (CNN : December 1, 2016)

If Putin's war with Ukraine was unwittingly embroiled in the US presidential election by Donald Trump through his  employment of Paul Manafort as his campaign manager, it now emerges that president-elect Donald Trump has now placed Putin's war with Ukraine, in the person of Paul Manafort, firmly at the centre of the shaping of his presidential administration.

For Trump, however, the storm clouds are gathering.

As reported by Roland Oliphant and Nick Allen, 

 

"The White House launched an extraordinary attack on Donald Trump, suggesting that it was “obvious” he knew about Russian interference in the US presidential election, which it said had been personally authorised by Vladimir Putin." (The Telegraph :15 December 2016) (my emphasis)

 

President Barack Obama has now called for a full investigation of the Russian hacking into the Democratic Party computers during the presidential elections, vowing to take appropriate action against Russia.

 (video aired on 15 Dec. 2016)

 

 

Obama is been given a another chance to confront Putin in the manner of the late President Kennedy's confrontation with Khrushchev over the missile crisis in Cuba in October 1962.

 

  

This is Obama's "Kennedy moment" before he leaves the White House. It will fashion how president-elect Trump will 'deal' with Putin's war with Ukraine.

(to be continued)