Putin can no longer bank on Germany and France to help him save face in his war with Ukraine.

In my blog entry of 20/02/2015 I wrote that,

"For the Germans what, really, is the difference between the terrorists in Iraq, and those in eastern Ukraine?

Two words rather sums it up viz. "Russlandversteher or Putinversteher"

As the Economist (May 10th 2014) pointed out many months ago,

"When Germans add the word Versteher (one who understands) to a term, they generally mix flattery with irony. So a Frauenversteher (one who understands women) is usually a man who boasts excessively about his knowledge of the opposite sex. The label is now being attached to so-called Russlandversteher or Putinversteher: members of the [German] elite or intelligentsia who gush with empathy for Russia and its president, Vladimir Putin, on talk shows, in journals and at dinner parties." (my emphasis)

So here, in their own backyard, many EU politicians are too scared to send military equipment to Ukraine's Poroshenko, who is fighting Putin-backed terrorists, but more than willing to send military equipment to, and with boots on the ground, fight terrorists thousands of miles away.

As Sens. John McCain, R-Ariz., and Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., so succinctly stated, Merkel, like so many other EU leaders, will use,
 
 “any available excuse not to provide [Ukraine with] defensive arms.” ( Fox News): (Not Archived) (my emphasis)

This is what is emboldening Putin to prepare for his imminent attack on Mariupol." (blog entry : 20 February 2015) (video above : BBC News : 20 February 2015)

And even then, foremost amongst those "Putinversteher" was non  other than former German Chancellors, Gerhard Schroeder and Angela Merkel. 

Is is therefore any wonder that today, as reported by Constanze Stelzenmüller (left),

• Rolf Mützenich, the head of the SPD’s parliamentary faction,has denounced demands by his Green and Free Democratic coalition partners for heavy weapons deliveries to Ukraine as “irresponsible.
• Chancellor Olaf Scholz himself is becoming thin-skinned. He has
  dismissed three Bundestag members who had visited Ukraine and called for more military support, as “boys and girls.” In a recent interview, he suggested sending heavy weapons would make Germany and NATO “parties to the war.”
• Ukraine is begging for heavy weapons, as Russia steps up its offensive in Donbas. But on this question Scholz has dithered, prevaricated and thrown up smoke, to mounting anger among Germany’s allies and his coalition partners. (Brookings : 26 April 2022) (my emphasis)
  

In April of this year, Germany's Justice Minister, Marco Buschmann (right), already put paid to Chancellor Sholtz's suggestion that, " ... sending heavy weapons would make Germany and NATO “parties to the war.” ".

As RFERL reported,

"The German justice minister says the delivery of tanks and other heavy weaponry to Ukraine would not -- by international law -- constitute his country’s entry into the war against Russia.
...
Justice Minister Marco Buschmann  told the Welt am Sonntag newspaper in an interview published on April 16 that international law does not label the delivery of weapons as an entry into war." (RFERL : 16 April 2022) (my emphasis)

So why is German Chancellor Scholtz (left) still shielding behind the legally discredited fig leaf that, " ... sending heavy weapons would make Germany and NATO “parties to the war.” when, according to his own Justice Minister, sending heavy weaponry to Ukraine, " ... would not -- by international law -- constitute [Germany's] entry into the war against Russia.???

As Reuf Bajrovic (right) writes,

"The Russian aggression against Ukraine has led to a reassessment of Germany’s long term Russia-centric Eastern European policy. The moral and political credibility in Europe that Germany rebuilt after WWII and enjoyed since the end of the Cold War is now spent.
...
Berlin’s reluctance to help Ukraine has shattered many convenient illusions about its eastward approaches. Critics argue that former Chancellor Angela Merkel’s appeasement of Russian President Vladimir Putin paved the way for what is now the largest armed conflict on the continent since the Second World War. "  (Haaretz : 12 May 2022) (my emphasis)

Not only Olaf Scholtz but also Emmanuelle Macron, recent re-elected President Of France, is also coming under scrutiny for adopting the French version of Angela Merkel's appeasement of Putin.

As reported by Katya Adler (left),

"And while there's smouldering resentment that Germany has been too soft for too long on Moscow - driven largely, it's believed, by economic interests - many of the same critics are also impatient with Mr Macron for repeatedly pursuing diplomatic openings with Vladimir Putin." (BBC News : 10 May 2022) (my emphasis)

One should also not underestimate the French economic interests that underpin banker Macron's 'diplomatic tête-à-tête's' with Putin.

BBC News : 10 May 2022

And as Putin continues to try to raze Ukraine's Donbas to the ground, both Macron and Scholtz find themselves in a rather 'knotty diplomatic' situation.

The success of President of Ukraine Zelesky's global diplomatic efforts to gain international support for Ukraine's effort to expunge Putin's forces from ALL of Ukrainian soil has, in some ways, exposed the appeasement policies of Macron, and the prevarications of Scholtz. 

Putin can now no longer bank on Germany and France to help him save face as he continues to lose in his war with Ukraine.

(to be continued)

Putin's threat to starve the innocent now coming to fruition

On April 5, 2022, Guy Faulconbridge reported that,

"President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday that Russia must keep a close eye on its food exports to hostile countries because the West's sanctions had fomented a global food crisis and spiralling energy prices.
...
"They will inevitably exacerbate food shortages in the poorest regions of the world, spur new waves of migration and in general drive food prices even higher," Putin told a meeting on developing food production.
...
"In these current conditions, a shortage of fertilisers on the global market is inevitable," Putin said. "We will have to be more careful about food supplies abroad, especially carefully monitor the exports to countries which are hostile to us." (Reuters : 5 April 2022) (my emphasis)

What is even more disconcerting, as reported in late April by DW, is that,

"Russia's invasion of Ukraine is being felt far and wide. The ravaged agricultural industry is causing shortages of staples such as wheat, sunflower oil, and corn. DW met a farmer struggling to pick up the pieces after Russian troops destroyed his livelihood." (DW : 22 April 2022) (my emphasis) 

And today, Putin's threats are becoming more manifest as he has ordered his navy to block Ukraine's ports from exporting grain and other foodstuffs to the rest of the world.

TRM : Turkish Broadcaster : You Tube : 19 May 2022

As reported by Martin Farrer,

"After pleas from western government and the United Nations to Moscow to allow the flow of food to avert possible famine in some countries, Medvedev said on Thursday that Russia was ready to do so but expected “assistance from trading partners, including on international platforms” in return
...
“Countries importing our wheat and other food products will have a very difficult time without supplies from Russia. And on European and other fields, without our fertilisers, only juicy weeds will grow,” added Medvedev, who served as president between 2008 and 2012 but is now deputy chairman of Russia’s security council." (The Guardian : 20 May 2022) (my emphasis)

Yet BOTH Putin and his puppet, Dmitry Medvedev, are trying to foist the global food crisis on the sanctions that have been placed on themselves, their 'siloviki', and their armaments industries, whilst the world can see that this global food crisis has arisen out of the second war that Putin started in Ukraine.

But just as Putin's second war in Ukraine is continuously backfiring on him, forcing him to resort to "threatening famine in many countries"; this dangerous "political flailing" will also backfire on him and his Kremlin cohorts.

The world sees Putin's and Medvedev's threats as pure and unadulterated "blackmail" against the global community. 

The starving of the world will see that Putin will not release food to them unless all the money that Putin and his 'siloviki' have stolen from the Russian people is handed back to them

More than anything else, this latest threat of Putin's, to light the touchpaper of  famine, amplifies the fact that Putin is the head of a criminal enterprise, NOT the head of a government.

(to be continued)

More dangerous than ever, Putin is now treading water.

Expecting Putin to shake his fist at the West and at Ukraine during his Victory Day Celebration speech in Red Square on May 9, many politicians around the world were caught off guard by his rather subdued tones in trying to link the defeat of Germany in 1945 to the ongoing 2022 war between himself and Ukraine in the Donbas. 

• NBC News's Yuliya Talmazan: "Russian President Vladimir Putin sought to justify his war in Ukraine on Monday, blaming the West and linking the conflict to World War II but not announcing any escalation despite fears from Kyiv and its allies. (NBC News : 9 May 2022) (my emphasis)

• Aljazeera (Reuters) reported Putin announcing that : “Today, the volunteers of the Donbas, together with the soldiers of the Russian army, are fighting on their own lands. “I am now addressing our armed forces and the Donbas volunteers. You are fighting for the Motherland, for its future, so that no one forgets the lessons of World War II – so there is no place in the world for executioners, punishers and Nazis.” (Aljazeera : 9 May 2022) (my emphasis)
• BBC News : What happens in the Donbas, however, offers Putin only a choice between different types of defeat. If the battle reaches an autumn stalemate, he will have precious little to show for so much loss and pain. If the military momentum shifts and his forces get pushed back, even more so. And even if the Russians succeed in overrunning the whole of the Donbas and all across the south, they still have to hold those territories for the indefinite future in the face of several million Ukrainians who don't want them there. (BBC News : 9 May 2022) (my emphasis)

Disconcerting for Putin and his 'siloviki', Guy Faulconbridge (left) reported that,

"Russian satellite television menus were altered on Monday to show viewers in Moscow messages about the war in Ukraine: "You have blood on your hands", according to screenshots obtained by Reuters.
...
The photographs showed Moscow satellite television menus on Victory Day, when Russia celebrated the 77th anniversary of Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany, with every channel showing anti-war slogans.
...
The slogans appeared just before the Victory Day parade on Red Square at which President Vladimir Putin compared the war in Ukraine to the Soviet battle to defeat Adolf Hitler in World War Two." (Reuters : 9 May 2022) (my emphasis)

                                                 MSNBC : Rachel Maddow : 10 May 2022

We should now not underestimate the dangers that Putin's paranoid responses poses to what has happened on Russian satellite TV menus and on the continuing, and successful, push back against Putin's forces in the Donbas by the Ukrainian forces.

Sky News : YouTube : 9 May 2022

As reported by Tom Watling (left),

"Putin left devastated as Russian invaders obliterated in rare aerial frontline footage. Ukranian forces have destroyed Russian invaders and their equipment, new footage shows, as the defending military continue to repel Vladimir Putin's army." (Express : 10 May 2022) (my emphasis)

As also reported by Giulia Carbonaro (right),

"Russian troops in Ukraine appear to be rapidly retreating from the areas around Kharkiv while Ukrainian armed forces make significant advances north and northwest of the city, as shown by unverified maps tracking Moscow's invasion of the neighboring country." (Newsweek : 10 May 2022) (my emphasis)

In response, Putin's forces are focussing on repeating their 'blitzkrieg' against Mariupol on the port hub of Odessa.

As Reported by Michael Wasiura (left),

"On the morning of May 9, as part of the Moscow Victory Day festivities, Vladimir Putin placed flowers on the monument to World War II "hero city" Odessa. Later that night, a Russian attack that included the use of hypersonic "Kinzhal" air-to-surface missiles struck civilian targets in the Ukrainian port city of Odesa. At least one person was killed in the attack...... "Putin could not capture Odesa, and so he has started to destroy its infrastructure," Ukrainian Rada Deputy and Odesa native Oleksiy Honcharnko told Newsweek. " (MSN (Newsweek) : 10 May 2022) (my emphasis)

More disconcerting, however, as reported by Katie Bo Lillis and Michael Conte,

"The US intelligence community believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine is likely to become “more unpredictable and escalatory” in the coming months, the nation’s director of national intelligence [Avril Haines] told Congress on Tuesday." (CNN : 10 May 2022) (my emphasis) 

Whilst Avril Haines may have discounted the idea that,

 " ... the intelligence community does not believe Putin would turn to the use of nuclear weapons unless he felt there was an existential threat to Russia" (ibid Katie Bo Lillis and Michael Conte)",

nonetheless  Russian State TV keeps threatening Nuclear Strikes—Should we be concerned? (Brendan Cole : Newsweek : 5 May 2022) (my emphasis)

"Hosts and panelists on Russian state television have always peddled anti-western rhetoric but the discussions justifying Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine have taken a more apocalyptic turn." (ibid Brendan Cole)

YouTube : 28 April 2022

 

Gravitas : YouTube : 4 May 2022

In light of the recent passing in the US Congress of, " ... $40 billion in additional military, economic and humanitarian aid to Ukraine to fight against Russia's invasion " (Kelsey Snell : NPR : 10 May 2022) (my emphasis)), Putin is more than backed up into a tight corner.

As reported by Tom Watling,

"US President Joe Biden said on Monday that he was concerned about Putin’s exit strategy in this war with Ukraine.
...
Speaking to a fundraiser in a suburb in Washington, Mr Biden said Putin was a “calculating man”.
...
But he added he did not think Putin knew how to get out of this conflict, saying: “I’m trying to figure out what we do about that”. " (Express : 10 May 2022) (my emphasis)

Putin is treading water! 

His increasing paranoia may push him over the brink as the vultures in the Kremlin begin to consider, "Life without Putin".

 (to be continued)

On Russia's Victory Day celebration, will Putin declare victory in Ukraine in the face of defeat by Ukraine?

Today (8th May 2022), on VE Day in Europe and the West, Ali Velshi (left) outlines the eery similarities between the impending military celebration tomorrow (9th May) in Red Square, to be overseen by Vladimir Putin, and the 9th May Celebrations in 1995, overseen by former Russian president, Boris Yeltsin.

The 1995 VE Day celebrations in Russia took place whilst the Russian army was laying waste to Grozny, the capital of Chechnya.

And to-morrow, Vladimir Putin will be overseeing the VE military celebrations in Red Square as the Russian army is laying waste to Mariupol in Ukraine.

As Velshi reminds us,

"On that day .. May 9th 1995... Victory Day... even as Russia celebrated its heroic victory over Germany 50 years prior ...  Russia was deep into a brutal scortched earth campaign into the breakaway province of Chechnya .. In fact, the very next segment (cf video above) of the nightly news broadcast from May 9th 1995 was from Chechnya. It's impossible to watch it now and not see nearly word for word ... and image for image ... the parallels to today...

And on the eve of this victory day ... this year ... it describes the Ukrainian city of Mariupol ... where the last Ukrainian troops in that city remain holed up in a giant steel plant that has been the sight of an ongoing battle with Russian forces for days now" (MSNBC :  7 May 2022) (my emphasis)

As also reported by Jenny Hill (left),

" ... But this year will be different. Russia is at war once again - this time with its neighbour.
...
The question of what Mr Putin might do has set analysts guessing and rumours swirling.
...
The Kremlin has dismissed as nonsense reports that he might use the opportunity to officially declare war on Ukraine - or even the West - and seek to mobilise reservists or even civilians to replenish his depleted army.
...
But many experts assume that, at the very least, he'll dress up any territorial gains in eastern Ukraine as a victory worthy of celebration. Though that's unlikely to mean the end of the war. Mr Gallyamov makes a fascinating prediction, that Mr Putin will then present Ukraine with an ultimatum - come to the negotiating table or choose to fight on and face the threat of a tactical nuclear weapon. (BBC News : 7 May 2022) (my emphasis)

Will Putin go nuclear?

Former British Diplomat, John Dobson (right) quotes Graham Allison, Professor of Government at Harvard University [as being] of the opinion that,

“if Putin is forced to choose between losing on one hand in Ukraine and escalating the level of destruction, there is every reason to believe that he’ll escalate the level of destruction”
...

“The nightmare scenario I envisage”, said Allison, “is that Dvornikov (left) conducts a nuclear strike on a small city in Ukraine, maybe 20,000 people, and then challenges Zelenskyy to imagine what a Ukrainian ‘Nagasaki’ would look like”—recalling that it was the Americans who dropped the first atomic bomb on Hiroshima, killing more than 100,000 people, and then another bomb on Nagasaki before the Japanese emperor surrendered." (Sunday Guardian : 7 May 2022) (my emphasis)

However, as I quoted Evelyn Farkas in my last blog post,

" ..... this 'nuclear' business [Putin's and Lavrov's threat to use 'nuclear' force] is frankly not only irresponsible but also doesn't make sense because we have deterrence .. we have nuclear forces also at every level. If the Russian forces want to go there then they will be signing their own death certificate" (ibid CNN) (my emphasis).

 

The 'butcher of Allepo', Dvornikov, may be straining at the leash to unleash 'nuclear' hell on the world whereas Putin has been left to clean up the diplomatic mess of that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov.

As reported by BBC News,

"Russia's President Vladimir Putin has apologised after his foreign minister said that Nazi leader Adolf Hitler had "Jewish blood", Israel says. Mr Putin made the apology in a call with Israeli PM Naftali Bennett, his office said in a statement....Russia's account of the conversation did not mention an apology." (BBC News : 6 May 2022) (my emphasis)

Even more disturbing for Putin, there is a tsunami of 'Russian diplomatic mess' brewing in Africa for Russia that he will soon have to contend with.

Many states in Africa that have chosen to pay 'lip service' to the UN condemnation of Putin's war with Ukraine now find themselves in the front line of having to cope with the very real economic and political repercussions that Putin's war in Ukraine is having in their countries.

As reported by The Economist, Putin's war in Ukraine has exacerbated the fuel problems in many countries in Africa.

"IN BURUNDI, DRIVERS are so desperate for fuel that they sleep on forecourts of petrol stations. Senegal has so little jet fuel that Air France’s flight from the capital, Dakar, to Paris has been stopping in the Canary Islands to fill up. Johannesburg has the same problem, which has caused United Airlines to cancel some flights from New York. From Kenya, which recently suffered its worst petrol shortage in a decade, to Lagos, where queues outside petrol stations backed onto motorways, and Cameroon, where thousands of lorries have been stranded without diesel, Africa has been short of the lifeblood of modern economies." (The Economist : 7 May 2022) (my emphasis)

As also earlier reported by Sally Hayden in Nairobi,

"From fuel to wheat, the invasion of Ukraine is already having a potentially devastating effect on prices across Africa.

• In Sierra Leone, a West African country with a population of roughly 8 million people, the maximum cost of a litre of fuel went from 12,000 leones (93c) per litre to 15,000 (€1.16) on Thursday.
•  More than 1,000km away, in Ghana, the cost of a litre of fuel went from roughly 6.4 cedis (79c) to 10 cedis (€1.23) a litre in just a few weeks, while the conversion rate for 1,000 cedis went from $150 to $125, said journalist Fentuo Tahiru Fentuo.
• In east Africa, the availability of wheat is of particular concern. Russia and Ukraine supply almost 90 per cent of Kenya’s wheat imports, according to figures released by the UN.

“War in Ukraine means hunger in Africa,” International Monetary Fund managing director Kristalina Georgieva told journalists." (The Irish Times : 20 March 2022) (my emphasis)

So what can we expect from Putin to-morrow.

Will he declare war on Ukraine that is bound to generate the anger of Russian mothers against him as their sons are conscripted to fight in Ukraine?

Will he declare victory in Ukraine in the face of defeat by Ukraine?

 

(to be continued)

Putin's actions are hammering in the final nails of the coffin of the USSR.

Putin's constant threat to use 'nuclear force' against Ukraine, or any country in the West, that continues to supply Ukraine with weaponry of defence and offense, has somewhat backfired.

As US President Biden explains,

"They [Putin's and Lavrov's threat to use 'nuclear' force] do concern me because it shows the desperation that Russia is feeling about their abject failure to be able to do what they set out to do in the first instance" (CNN : YouTube : 28 April 2022) (my emphasis)

The analysis of Evelyn Farkas during the CNN interview rather succinctly points out that,

" ..... this 'nuclear' business [Putin's and Lavrov's threat to use 'nuclear' force] is frankly not only irresponsible but also doesn't make sense because we have deterrence .. we have nuclear forces also at every level. If the Russian forces want to go there then they will be signing their own death certificate" (ibid CNN) (my emphasis).

Just recently, as reported by Richard Luscombe,

"Joe Biden’s $33bn request to Congress for more aid for Ukraine is likely to receive swift approval from lawmakers, a senior Republican said on Sunday, as the House speaker, Nancy Pelosi, made a surprise visit to the war-riven country
...
McCaul’s comments came while Pelosi led a congressional delegation to Kyiv to meet the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy, and the House speaker promised on behalf of the US: “We are here until victory is won.” (The Guardian : 1 May 2022) (my emphasis)

And at the same time, as reported by Emily Atkinson (right),

"In seeking “payback” for Moscow’s losses, top army officials are reportedly imploring the Russian leader to replace his “special military operation” tagline with a cry of all-out war, which would permit the Kremlin to drum up the mass-mobilisation of its population.." (MSN : The Independent : 1 May 2022) (my emphasis)

Emily Atkinson continues,

"[UK] Defence secretary Ben Wallace (left) lent his voice to warnings that the annual parade could be used to declare war. .... His comments arrived in the wake of the announcement that Britain is sending around 8,000 of its troops to take part in exercises across eastern Europe.
...
The thousands of British troops will be joined by tens of thousands of troops from Nato and the Joint Expeditionary Force alliance, which includes Finland and Sweden." (ibid Emily Atkinson) (my emphasis)

We now also learn that, as reported by IANS,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin may be forced to give up control of the war in Ukraine for days as he is set for cancer surgery, and will reportedly nominate hardline former FSB chief Nikolai Patrushev (right) to take temporary control of the invasion while he is under the knife, a Kremlin insider has claimed.
...

Such a move would be surprising since under the Russian constitution, power should pass solely to the Prime Minister [currently Mikhail Mishustin (left)], the Daily Mail reported." (Business Standard : 1 May 2022) (my emphasis) (cf. also :- Mail Online, The Mirror)

          Hindustan News : YouTube : 1 May 2022

We are now left with at least two rather critical questions :-

• Is this temporary transfer of power, whilst Putin is being operated on, to the FSB Chief, Nikolai Patrushev, to ensure that his current war strategy of razing Ukraine to the ground continues should he emerge even more incapacitated after his surgery? OR
• Is this bypassing of Mikhail Mishustin, the next in command, indicative of the serious cracks that are appearing in Russia's power structure? 

As reported by Brad Hunter,

" Experts say that many close allies of the Russian strongman have either died, been jailed, or simply disappeared.
...
Putin’s woes have mounted with every military setback and skyrocketing casualties (estimated to be 21,000 dead) from the battlefront.
...

Now, Russian chess legend Garry Kasparov (left) is warning that Putin faces the very real prospect of being overthrown as he appears to be severing ties with former allies." (Toronto Sun : 20 April 2022) (my emphasis)

Mindful of the fact that Putin seems to have something of a disdain for Russia's economic pundits, who are screaming from the rooftops that sanctions has caused the Russian economy into dangerous uncertainty territory.

Recently, as reported by Reuters,

"Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina will have to deal with a full-scale economic crisis, tackling unprecedented uncertainty stemming from Western sanctions, as she begins her new five-year stint in charge of monetary policy.
...
"Nabiullina is facing another challenging term, no doubt," said Tatiana Orlova, lead emerging market economist at Oxford Economics.
...
There are several challenges the central bank will have to deal with, including when and how to lift capital controls, as well as the possible need to recapitalise some Russian banks.
...
"So in short, the CBR Governor has her work cut out for her. I wouldn't want to be in her shoes right now," Orlova said." (Reuters : 21 April 2022) (my emphasis)

Putin's respose to the challenges facing Russia's Central Bank?

Trying to force payments in roubles for oil and gas, even though the contracts already agreed with many countries specifically specifies payments in either dollars or euros.

As reported by Arathy Somasekhar and Nina Chestney,

"In March, Russian President Vladimir Putin said the world's largest natural gas producer would require "unfriendly" countries to pay for fuel in roubles by opening accounts at Gazprombank and make payments in euros or dollars to be converted into roubles." (Reuters : 26 April 2022) (my emphasis) 

Hungary and Germany's main importer of gas, Uniper, now argue that they can use the Putin method for paying in roubles without breaking EU sanctions against Russia.

However, as reported by Paul Withers (left),

"An embargo on Russian oil throughout the bloc is becoming increasingly likely, and now the likes of Austria, Hungary and Slovakia have withdrawn their veto, according to German broadcaster ZDF. It comes ahead of the EU hitting Russia with a sixth round of crippling economic sanctions." (Express : 1 May 2022) (my emphasis)

So what Putin may have marginally gained on the swing of rouble payments he has lost on the roundabout of a possible EU oil embargo.

With a losing war against Ukraine, and an economy entering the economic doldrums of collapse Putin, it would seem, is hammering in the final nails of the coffin of  what used to be the USSR.

(to be continued)

Putin's 'nuclear threat' is the diplomacy of genocide against the people of Ukraine

 When that 'dyed-in-the-wool' Soviet Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, warns that,

"Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned the West on Monday not to underestimate the elevated risks of nuclear conflict over Ukraine and said he viewed NATO as being "in essence" engaged in a proxy war with Russia by supplying Kyiv with weaponry. (Lidia Kelly and Ronald Popeski : Reuters : 26 April 2022) (my emphasis) (cf. also: Rory Sullivan, Namita Singh, and Zoe Tidman :The Independent : 26 April 2022) ",

this signals that Putin now knows that his Russian army is failing in their war with Ukraine.

This is further reinforced by Putin having to announce to the Russian people that,

"This morning, the Federal Security Service stopped the activities of a terrorist group that planned to attack and kill one famous Russian TV journalist," he [Putin] said.
...
FSB chief Alexander Bortnikov said six neo-nationalist Russian citizens plotted to kill Russian journalist Vladimir Solovyov, a vocal supporter of Mr Putin and the war in Ukraine, at the behest of the Ukrainian state security service (SBU)." (Amar Mehta : Sky News : 25 April 2022) (my emphasis)
 

Now why would he announce that the alleged conspiracy theorists were "Russian citizens"?

Simply to reinforce in the minds of the Russian people that those Russian citizens who are against his war with Ukraine are, in effect, 'traitors' that need to be identified and punished.

Just as Lavrov is now wielding Putin's 'nuclear' big stick against the West, Putin is wielding his FSB and his 'legal' big stick against the people of Russia.

As he argues,

"However, as they [the West] begin to understand  that this is impossible, another mission    ( the conspiracy to kill a Russian journalist) comes to the fore to destroy Russia from the inside. There is a hitch there to. They cannot succeed in that." (cf: video above)

And hours after Putin gave this rather feeble and somehat confused speech, Chris Pleasance, Will Stewart, and Stephen M. Lepore reported that,

"Flames lit up the sky over Russia in the early hours after suspected Ukrainian missile strikes blew up two oil storage facilities supplying Putin's troops fighting for control of Donbas.

The Transneft-Druzhba Oil Depot, located in the city of Bryansk around 70 miles from the Ukrainian border, caught fire at 2am local time before a second fire broke out at a nearby military facility around 15 minutes later, Russian state media said this morning." (Mail Online : 25 April 2022) (my emphasis)

It is no wonder that, as reported by Simon Lewis,

"Russia is failing in its war aims but Ukraine is succeeding, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Monday after he and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin met President Volodymyr Zelinskiy and Ukrainian officials in Kyiv." (MSN (Reuters) : 25 April 2022) (my emphasis) 

And as reported by Julian Borger (right),

"At a press conference in Poland after a surprise visit to Kyiv, Lloyd Austin was asked if he would now define US goals differently from those set out soon after the Russian invasion. In response, he started out with the established administration line about helping Ukraine retain its sovereignty and defend its territory.
...
Then Austin added a second goal: “We want to see Russia weakened to the degree that it can’t do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine.” That meant Russia should “not have the capability to very quickly reproduce” the forces and equipment that had been lost in Ukraine." (The Guardian : 25 April 2022) (my emphasis)

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin's second goal refers not only to ensuring that Ukraine will, in future, be able on its own to protect itself from any future Russian invasion of its soil, but also that the genocidal nature of Putin's war with Ukraine will not happen to any other country in the future.

It is no wonder that in his speech (cf. Sky News video) mentioning that alleged plan to attack and kill a famous Russian TV journalist, Putin also said,

" What can I say in this connection, [alleged plan to kill a Russian journalist] to our surprise high-ranking diplomats in Europe and the United States call on their Ukrainian satellites to use all their capacities to achieve victory on the battlefield. Our partners from the USA and Europe use really strange diplomacy. Even diplomats now encourage this." 

Yet it is Putin that is now using the diplomacy of genocide to try to achieve his aims in Ukraine.

And it is to prevent Russia using this diplomacy of genocide in the future that US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, ".... want's to see Russia weakened to the degree that it can’t do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine.”

(to be continued)

Putin's anger will know no bounds if he fails in his battle for the Donbas.

In my blog post of Sunday, 9 November 2014, I wrote that,

"On July 25, 2014, rather presciently,  Alexander Motyl  (left) posed the question,

"Is Putin evil? His actions certainly are, if by evil we understand behavior that willfully, consciously and purposely destroys human life. Perhaps we can call his actions undeniably evil and Putin himself "evil enough." Evil enough for what? Evil enough for condemnation by people of good will." 

He further stated that,

"Ultimately, France and Germany, as well as all countries that aid and abet Russia's destructive capabilities, have to decide whether they care more about values or about money. Dictatorships can answer that question easily: Their leaders [like Putin] are indifferent to values." (Alexander Motyl : CNN : 25 July 2014) (my emphasis)

The alarm bells that were ringing shortly after Putin illegally invaded annexed Ukraine's Crimea in 2014, and subsequently sent his Russian soldiers into the Donbas, fell on deaf ears in France and Germany, and who continued to suck at the teats of Putin's Russian 'cash cow'. 

CNN : 25 July 2014

Today, in full public display, the German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, is now anxiously wringing his hands in horror as he confronts the call of Ukraine's President, Volodomyr Zelensky, for Germany to relinquish the oil and gas hold that Putin now has over the German economy.

But, true to form, Olaf Scholtz cares more about ensuring that the German people will not have to pay an economic price for having had their standard of living grow, since 2014, partly on the back of  German business men marching across Ukraine into the warm economic embrace  of Putin's 'Golden Eldorado'.

As James Lee (right) reports,

"A furious row has erupted over a "defenceless" Ukraine as Chancellor Olaf Scholz faces demands he sends in tanks, saying "Germany is to blame" for its late response.
...
Speaking in an interview with German media, Mr Wadephul accused the German government of deceiving the public by promising further financial military aid.

He said: “Ukraine has not lacked money - also not due to the EU funds."

“The increase in funding is therefore just a nasty diversionary tactic.” (Express : 19 April 2022) (my emphasis)

As he further points out,

"However, with Germany still failing to assure Ukraine of heavy weapons, and France embroiled in an internal election, focus appeared to have shifted away from Ukraine.
...

President Emmanuel Macron, once the favoured broker-diplomat between Moscow and the West has stated talks broke down over the discovery of war crimes in the town of Bucha, committed by Russian soldiers.
...
European nations have called for more sanctions, yet, France for example, unlike the US, has stopped short of accusing Vladimir Putin of war crimes. (ibid James Lee)

And now, as reported by Mark Trevelyan,

"In a show of strength two months into its assault on Ukraine, Russia test-launched a new nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile which President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday would make Moscow's enemies stop and think.
...

"This truly unique weapon will strengthen the combat potential of our armed forces, reliably ensure Russia's security from external threats and provide food for thought for those who, in the heat of frenzied aggressive rhetoric, try to threaten our country." 

Russia's nuclear forces will start taking delivery of the new missile "in the autumn of this year" once testing is complete, Tass quoted Dmitry Rogozin, head of the Roscosmos space agency, as saying on Wednesday. (Reuters : 20 April 2022) (my emphasis) (video below : Global News : YouTube : 20 April 2022)

This boastful threat of Putin seems to ignore the fact that whatever may cause him to unleash this Sarmat missile that he has been waiting for will also lead to the unleashing of nuclear missiles against Russia; the setting off of the MAD doctrine of military strategy.

What this boastful threat of Putin does tell us is that he fears his Donbas strategy may not lead to the success that he anticipates, especially in light of the continued supply of sophisticated offensive weaponry to the Ukrainian army from the US and UK in particular.

As reported by Brendan Cole (left),

"Russia has an approaching deadline that will add urgency to its campaign in Ukraine over the coming three weeks, the British defense ministry said.
...
In its daily intelligence update on the Russian invasion, U.K. defense officials said that Moscow wants big military gains before its annual commemoration of the end of World War II on May 9." (MSN (Newsweek) : 21 April 2022) (my emphasis)

And herein lies the danger.

Putin's anger will know no bounds if he fails in his battle for the Donbas.

(to be continued)