On Russia's Victory Day celebration, will Putin declare victory in Ukraine in the face of defeat by Ukraine?

Today (8th May 2022), on VE Day in Europe and the West, Ali Velshi (left) outlines the eery similarities between the impending military celebration tomorrow (9th May) in Red Square, to be overseen by Vladimir Putin, and the 9th May Celebrations in 1995, overseen by former Russian president, Boris Yeltsin.

The 1995 VE Day celebrations in Russia took place whilst the Russian army was laying waste to Grozny, the capital of Chechnya.

And to-morrow, Vladimir Putin will be overseeing the VE military celebrations in Red Square as the Russian army is laying waste to Mariupol in Ukraine.

As Velshi reminds us,

"On that day .. May 9th 1995... Victory Day... even as Russia celebrated its heroic victory over Germany 50 years prior ...  Russia was deep into a brutal scortched earth campaign into the breakaway province of Chechnya .. In fact, the very next segment (cf video above) of the nightly news broadcast from May 9th 1995 was from Chechnya. It's impossible to watch it now and not see nearly word for word ... and image for image ... the parallels to today...

And on the eve of this victory day ... this year ... it describes the Ukrainian city of Mariupol ... where the last Ukrainian troops in that city remain holed up in a giant steel plant that has been the sight of an ongoing battle with Russian forces for days now" (MSNBC :  7 May 2022) (my emphasis)

As also reported by Jenny Hill (left),

" ... But this year will be different. Russia is at war once again - this time with its neighbour.
...
The question of what Mr Putin might do has set analysts guessing and rumours swirling.
...
The Kremlin has dismissed as nonsense reports that he might use the opportunity to officially declare war on Ukraine - or even the West - and seek to mobilise reservists or even civilians to replenish his depleted army.
...
But many experts assume that, at the very least, he'll dress up any territorial gains in eastern Ukraine as a victory worthy of celebration. Though that's unlikely to mean the end of the war. Mr Gallyamov makes a fascinating prediction, that Mr Putin will then present Ukraine with an ultimatum - come to the negotiating table or choose to fight on and face the threat of a tactical nuclear weapon. (BBC News : 7 May 2022) (my emphasis)

Will Putin go nuclear?

Former British Diplomat, John Dobson (right) quotes Graham Allison, Professor of Government at Harvard University [as being] of the opinion that,

“if Putin is forced to choose between losing on one hand in Ukraine and escalating the level of destruction, there is every reason to believe that he’ll escalate the level of destruction”
...

“The nightmare scenario I envisage”, said Allison, “is that Dvornikov (left) conducts a nuclear strike on a small city in Ukraine, maybe 20,000 people, and then challenges Zelenskyy to imagine what a Ukrainian ‘Nagasaki’ would look like”—recalling that it was the Americans who dropped the first atomic bomb on Hiroshima, killing more than 100,000 people, and then another bomb on Nagasaki before the Japanese emperor surrendered." (Sunday Guardian : 7 May 2022) (my emphasis)

However, as I quoted Evelyn Farkas in my last blog post,

" ..... this 'nuclear' business [Putin's and Lavrov's threat to use 'nuclear' force] is frankly not only irresponsible but also doesn't make sense because we have deterrence .. we have nuclear forces also at every level. If the Russian forces want to go there then they will be signing their own death certificate" (ibid CNN) (my emphasis).

 

The 'butcher of Allepo', Dvornikov, may be straining at the leash to unleash 'nuclear' hell on the world whereas Putin has been left to clean up the diplomatic mess of that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov.

As reported by BBC News,

"Russia's President Vladimir Putin has apologised after his foreign minister said that Nazi leader Adolf Hitler had "Jewish blood", Israel says. Mr Putin made the apology in a call with Israeli PM Naftali Bennett, his office said in a statement....Russia's account of the conversation did not mention an apology." (BBC News : 6 May 2022) (my emphasis)

Even more disturbing for Putin, there is a tsunami of 'Russian diplomatic mess' brewing in Africa for Russia that he will soon have to contend with.

Many states in Africa that have chosen to pay 'lip service' to the UN condemnation of Putin's war with Ukraine now find themselves in the front line of having to cope with the very real economic and political repercussions that Putin's war in Ukraine is having in their countries.

As reported by The Economist, Putin's war in Ukraine has exacerbated the fuel problems in many countries in Africa.

"IN BURUNDI, DRIVERS are so desperate for fuel that they sleep on forecourts of petrol stations. Senegal has so little jet fuel that Air France’s flight from the capital, Dakar, to Paris has been stopping in the Canary Islands to fill up. Johannesburg has the same problem, which has caused United Airlines to cancel some flights from New York. From Kenya, which recently suffered its worst petrol shortage in a decade, to Lagos, where queues outside petrol stations backed onto motorways, and Cameroon, where thousands of lorries have been stranded without diesel, Africa has been short of the lifeblood of modern economies." (The Economist : 7 May 2022) (my emphasis)

As also earlier reported by Sally Hayden in Nairobi,

"From fuel to wheat, the invasion of Ukraine is already having a potentially devastating effect on prices across Africa.

• In Sierra Leone, a West African country with a population of roughly 8 million people, the maximum cost of a litre of fuel went from 12,000 leones (93c) per litre to 15,000 (€1.16) on Thursday.
•  More than 1,000km away, in Ghana, the cost of a litre of fuel went from roughly 6.4 cedis (79c) to 10 cedis (€1.23) a litre in just a few weeks, while the conversion rate for 1,000 cedis went from $150 to $125, said journalist Fentuo Tahiru Fentuo.
• In east Africa, the availability of wheat is of particular concern. Russia and Ukraine supply almost 90 per cent of Kenya’s wheat imports, according to figures released by the UN.

“War in Ukraine means hunger in Africa,” International Monetary Fund managing director Kristalina Georgieva told journalists." (The Irish Times : 20 March 2022) (my emphasis)

So what can we expect from Putin to-morrow.

Will he declare war on Ukraine that is bound to generate the anger of Russian mothers against him as their sons are conscripted to fight in Ukraine?

Will he declare victory in Ukraine in the face of defeat by Ukraine?

 

(to be continued)

Putin's actions are hammering in the final nails of the coffin of the USSR.

Putin's constant threat to use 'nuclear force' against Ukraine, or any country in the West, that continues to supply Ukraine with weaponry of defence and offense, has somewhat backfired.

As US President Biden explains,

"They [Putin's and Lavrov's threat to use 'nuclear' force] do concern me because it shows the desperation that Russia is feeling about their abject failure to be able to do what they set out to do in the first instance" (CNN : YouTube : 28 April 2022) (my emphasis)

The analysis of Evelyn Farkas during the CNN interview rather succinctly points out that,

" ..... this 'nuclear' business [Putin's and Lavrov's threat to use 'nuclear' force] is frankly not only irresponsible but also doesn't make sense because we have deterrence .. we have nuclear forces also at every level. If the Russian forces want to go there then they will be signing their own death certificate" (ibid CNN) (my emphasis).

Just recently, as reported by Richard Luscombe,

"Joe Biden’s $33bn request to Congress for more aid for Ukraine is likely to receive swift approval from lawmakers, a senior Republican said on Sunday, as the House speaker, Nancy Pelosi, made a surprise visit to the war-riven country
...
McCaul’s comments came while Pelosi led a congressional delegation to Kyiv to meet the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy, and the House speaker promised on behalf of the US: “We are here until victory is won.” (The Guardian : 1 May 2022) (my emphasis)

And at the same time, as reported by Emily Atkinson (right),

"In seeking “payback” for Moscow’s losses, top army officials are reportedly imploring the Russian leader to replace his “special military operation” tagline with a cry of all-out war, which would permit the Kremlin to drum up the mass-mobilisation of its population.." (MSN : The Independent : 1 May 2022) (my emphasis)

Emily Atkinson continues,

"[UK] Defence secretary Ben Wallace (left) lent his voice to warnings that the annual parade could be used to declare war. .... His comments arrived in the wake of the announcement that Britain is sending around 8,000 of its troops to take part in exercises across eastern Europe.
...
The thousands of British troops will be joined by tens of thousands of troops from Nato and the Joint Expeditionary Force alliance, which includes Finland and Sweden." (ibid Emily Atkinson) (my emphasis)

We now also learn that, as reported by IANS,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin may be forced to give up control of the war in Ukraine for days as he is set for cancer surgery, and will reportedly nominate hardline former FSB chief Nikolai Patrushev (right) to take temporary control of the invasion while he is under the knife, a Kremlin insider has claimed.
...

Such a move would be surprising since under the Russian constitution, power should pass solely to the Prime Minister [currently Mikhail Mishustin (left)], the Daily Mail reported." (Business Standard : 1 May 2022) (my emphasis) (cf. also :- Mail Online, The Mirror)

          Hindustan News : YouTube : 1 May 2022

We are now left with at least two rather critical questions :-

• Is this temporary transfer of power, whilst Putin is being operated on, to the FSB Chief, Nikolai Patrushev, to ensure that his current war strategy of razing Ukraine to the ground continues should he emerge even more incapacitated after his surgery? OR
• Is this bypassing of Mikhail Mishustin, the next in command, indicative of the serious cracks that are appearing in Russia's power structure? 

As reported by Brad Hunter,

" Experts say that many close allies of the Russian strongman have either died, been jailed, or simply disappeared.
...
Putin’s woes have mounted with every military setback and skyrocketing casualties (estimated to be 21,000 dead) from the battlefront.
...

Now, Russian chess legend Garry Kasparov (left) is warning that Putin faces the very real prospect of being overthrown as he appears to be severing ties with former allies." (Toronto Sun : 20 April 2022) (my emphasis)

Mindful of the fact that Putin seems to have something of a disdain for Russia's economic pundits, who are screaming from the rooftops that sanctions has caused the Russian economy into dangerous uncertainty territory.

Recently, as reported by Reuters,

"Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina will have to deal with a full-scale economic crisis, tackling unprecedented uncertainty stemming from Western sanctions, as she begins her new five-year stint in charge of monetary policy.
...
"Nabiullina is facing another challenging term, no doubt," said Tatiana Orlova, lead emerging market economist at Oxford Economics.
...
There are several challenges the central bank will have to deal with, including when and how to lift capital controls, as well as the possible need to recapitalise some Russian banks.
...
"So in short, the CBR Governor has her work cut out for her. I wouldn't want to be in her shoes right now," Orlova said." (Reuters : 21 April 2022) (my emphasis)

Putin's respose to the challenges facing Russia's Central Bank?

Trying to force payments in roubles for oil and gas, even though the contracts already agreed with many countries specifically specifies payments in either dollars or euros.

As reported by Arathy Somasekhar and Nina Chestney,

"In March, Russian President Vladimir Putin said the world's largest natural gas producer would require "unfriendly" countries to pay for fuel in roubles by opening accounts at Gazprombank and make payments in euros or dollars to be converted into roubles." (Reuters : 26 April 2022) (my emphasis) 

Hungary and Germany's main importer of gas, Uniper, now argue that they can use the Putin method for paying in roubles without breaking EU sanctions against Russia.

However, as reported by Paul Withers (left),

"An embargo on Russian oil throughout the bloc is becoming increasingly likely, and now the likes of Austria, Hungary and Slovakia have withdrawn their veto, according to German broadcaster ZDF. It comes ahead of the EU hitting Russia with a sixth round of crippling economic sanctions." (Express : 1 May 2022) (my emphasis)

So what Putin may have marginally gained on the swing of rouble payments he has lost on the roundabout of a possible EU oil embargo.

With a losing war against Ukraine, and an economy entering the economic doldrums of collapse Putin, it would seem, is hammering in the final nails of the coffin of  what used to be the USSR.

(to be continued)

Putin's 'nuclear threat' is the diplomacy of genocide against the people of Ukraine

 When that 'dyed-in-the-wool' Soviet Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, warns that,

"Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned the West on Monday not to underestimate the elevated risks of nuclear conflict over Ukraine and said he viewed NATO as being "in essence" engaged in a proxy war with Russia by supplying Kyiv with weaponry. (Lidia Kelly and Ronald Popeski : Reuters : 26 April 2022) (my emphasis) (cf. also: Rory Sullivan, Namita Singh, and Zoe Tidman :The Independent : 26 April 2022) ",

this signals that Putin now knows that his Russian army is failing in their war with Ukraine.

This is further reinforced by Putin having to announce to the Russian people that,

"This morning, the Federal Security Service stopped the activities of a terrorist group that planned to attack and kill one famous Russian TV journalist," he [Putin] said.
...
FSB chief Alexander Bortnikov said six neo-nationalist Russian citizens plotted to kill Russian journalist Vladimir Solovyov, a vocal supporter of Mr Putin and the war in Ukraine, at the behest of the Ukrainian state security service (SBU)." (Amar Mehta : Sky News : 25 April 2022) (my emphasis)
 

Now why would he announce that the alleged conspiracy theorists were "Russian citizens"?

Simply to reinforce in the minds of the Russian people that those Russian citizens who are against his war with Ukraine are, in effect, 'traitors' that need to be identified and punished.

Just as Lavrov is now wielding Putin's 'nuclear' big stick against the West, Putin is wielding his FSB and his 'legal' big stick against the people of Russia.

As he argues,

"However, as they [the West] begin to understand  that this is impossible, another mission    ( the conspiracy to kill a Russian journalist) comes to the fore to destroy Russia from the inside. There is a hitch there to. They cannot succeed in that." (cf: video above)

And hours after Putin gave this rather feeble and somehat confused speech, Chris Pleasance, Will Stewart, and Stephen M. Lepore reported that,

"Flames lit up the sky over Russia in the early hours after suspected Ukrainian missile strikes blew up two oil storage facilities supplying Putin's troops fighting for control of Donbas.

The Transneft-Druzhba Oil Depot, located in the city of Bryansk around 70 miles from the Ukrainian border, caught fire at 2am local time before a second fire broke out at a nearby military facility around 15 minutes later, Russian state media said this morning." (Mail Online : 25 April 2022) (my emphasis)

It is no wonder that, as reported by Simon Lewis,

"Russia is failing in its war aims but Ukraine is succeeding, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Monday after he and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin met President Volodymyr Zelinskiy and Ukrainian officials in Kyiv." (MSN (Reuters) : 25 April 2022) (my emphasis) 

And as reported by Julian Borger (right),

"At a press conference in Poland after a surprise visit to Kyiv, Lloyd Austin was asked if he would now define US goals differently from those set out soon after the Russian invasion. In response, he started out with the established administration line about helping Ukraine retain its sovereignty and defend its territory.
...
Then Austin added a second goal: “We want to see Russia weakened to the degree that it can’t do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine.” That meant Russia should “not have the capability to very quickly reproduce” the forces and equipment that had been lost in Ukraine." (The Guardian : 25 April 2022) (my emphasis)

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin's second goal refers not only to ensuring that Ukraine will, in future, be able on its own to protect itself from any future Russian invasion of its soil, but also that the genocidal nature of Putin's war with Ukraine will not happen to any other country in the future.

It is no wonder that in his speech (cf. Sky News video) mentioning that alleged plan to attack and kill a famous Russian TV journalist, Putin also said,

" What can I say in this connection, [alleged plan to kill a Russian journalist] to our surprise high-ranking diplomats in Europe and the United States call on their Ukrainian satellites to use all their capacities to achieve victory on the battlefield. Our partners from the USA and Europe use really strange diplomacy. Even diplomats now encourage this." 

Yet it is Putin that is now using the diplomacy of genocide to try to achieve his aims in Ukraine.

And it is to prevent Russia using this diplomacy of genocide in the future that US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, ".... want's to see Russia weakened to the degree that it can’t do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine.”

(to be continued)

Putin's anger will know no bounds if he fails in his battle for the Donbas.

In my blog post of Sunday, 9 November 2014, I wrote that,

"On July 25, 2014, rather presciently,  Alexander Motyl  (left) posed the question,

"Is Putin evil? His actions certainly are, if by evil we understand behavior that willfully, consciously and purposely destroys human life. Perhaps we can call his actions undeniably evil and Putin himself "evil enough." Evil enough for what? Evil enough for condemnation by people of good will." 

He further stated that,

"Ultimately, France and Germany, as well as all countries that aid and abet Russia's destructive capabilities, have to decide whether they care more about values or about money. Dictatorships can answer that question easily: Their leaders [like Putin] are indifferent to values." (Alexander Motyl : CNN : 25 July 2014) (my emphasis)

The alarm bells that were ringing shortly after Putin illegally invaded annexed Ukraine's Crimea in 2014, and subsequently sent his Russian soldiers into the Donbas, fell on deaf ears in France and Germany, and who continued to suck at the teats of Putin's Russian 'cash cow'. 

CNN : 25 July 2014

Today, in full public display, the German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, is now anxiously wringing his hands in horror as he confronts the call of Ukraine's President, Volodomyr Zelensky, for Germany to relinquish the oil and gas hold that Putin now has over the German economy.

But, true to form, Olaf Scholtz cares more about ensuring that the German people will not have to pay an economic price for having had their standard of living grow, since 2014, partly on the back of  German business men marching across Ukraine into the warm economic embrace  of Putin's 'Golden Eldorado'.

As James Lee (right) reports,

"A furious row has erupted over a "defenceless" Ukraine as Chancellor Olaf Scholz faces demands he sends in tanks, saying "Germany is to blame" for its late response.
...
Speaking in an interview with German media, Mr Wadephul accused the German government of deceiving the public by promising further financial military aid.

He said: “Ukraine has not lacked money - also not due to the EU funds."

“The increase in funding is therefore just a nasty diversionary tactic.” (Express : 19 April 2022) (my emphasis)

As he further points out,

"However, with Germany still failing to assure Ukraine of heavy weapons, and France embroiled in an internal election, focus appeared to have shifted away from Ukraine.
...

President Emmanuel Macron, once the favoured broker-diplomat between Moscow and the West has stated talks broke down over the discovery of war crimes in the town of Bucha, committed by Russian soldiers.
...
European nations have called for more sanctions, yet, France for example, unlike the US, has stopped short of accusing Vladimir Putin of war crimes. (ibid James Lee)

And now, as reported by Mark Trevelyan,

"In a show of strength two months into its assault on Ukraine, Russia test-launched a new nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile which President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday would make Moscow's enemies stop and think.
...

"This truly unique weapon will strengthen the combat potential of our armed forces, reliably ensure Russia's security from external threats and provide food for thought for those who, in the heat of frenzied aggressive rhetoric, try to threaten our country." 

Russia's nuclear forces will start taking delivery of the new missile "in the autumn of this year" once testing is complete, Tass quoted Dmitry Rogozin, head of the Roscosmos space agency, as saying on Wednesday. (Reuters : 20 April 2022) (my emphasis) (video below : Global News : YouTube : 20 April 2022)

This boastful threat of Putin seems to ignore the fact that whatever may cause him to unleash this Sarmat missile that he has been waiting for will also lead to the unleashing of nuclear missiles against Russia; the setting off of the MAD doctrine of military strategy.

What this boastful threat of Putin does tell us is that he fears his Donbas strategy may not lead to the success that he anticipates, especially in light of the continued supply of sophisticated offensive weaponry to the Ukrainian army from the US and UK in particular.

As reported by Brendan Cole (left),

"Russia has an approaching deadline that will add urgency to its campaign in Ukraine over the coming three weeks, the British defense ministry said.
...
In its daily intelligence update on the Russian invasion, U.K. defense officials said that Moscow wants big military gains before its annual commemoration of the end of World War II on May 9." (MSN (Newsweek) : 21 April 2022) (my emphasis)

And herein lies the danger.

Putin's anger will know no bounds if he fails in his battle for the Donbas.

(to be continued)

At what point does one say, "Enough is enough!"

 At what point does one say, "Enough is enough!".

Simon Tisdall (left) is correct in pointing out that,

"Nato should talk less and do more, or Ukraine will be torn apart, bit by bit". (The Guardian : 17 April 2022) (my emphasis)

 As he further explains :-

•  Direct, limited Nato military intervention on the ground to create safe havens in western Ukraine, for example, or to target in-theatre artillery, naval and missile forces that bomb civilians, is entirely feasible. The mere threat might give Russia pause. Yet Biden will not hear of it. His fear that it would automatically escalate into all-out Nato-Russia warfare is almost certainly unfounded. 
• 
  Germany, Europe’s supposed leader, is another sorry case. Chancellor Olaf Scholz (right) says those who perpetrated atrocities in the town of Bucha “must be held accountable”. But that day of reckoning remains a distant dream as long as Scholz continues to reject national and EU-wide energy sanctions and argue over arms supplies
• While a whacking €100bn defence spending increase is promised to protect Germans, Scholz is delaying delivery of a few heavy weapons to protect Ukrainians (ibid Simon Tisdall) (my emphasis)
  

The constant threat of Putin, since February of this year, that he is not afraid to use his nuclear arsenal, has given critical EU leaders a paper shield behind which they now cower to justify, in the words of Simon Tisdall, "...  US-led Nato, the world’s most powerful military alliance, will sit on its hands, apparently prepared, if need be, to watch Ukraine dismembered bit by gruesome bit." (ibid Simon Tisdall) 

BBC News : YouTube : 27 February 2022

 And as NATO sits on the fence, wringing its hands in horror at the genocide being perpetrated by Putin in Ukraine, we now have the German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier (below), including the German political and intellectual establishment, now having to admit that,

"Since Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February, many German politicians have publicly admitted they got Vladimir Putin wrong. Even German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier has apologised, saying it was a mistake to use trade and energy to build bridges with Moscow." (Damien McGuinness : BBC News : 18 April 2022) (my emphasis)

 Steinmeier may now, rather belatedly, give his apologies as Putin continues to rain his death and destruction upon the people of Ukraine but what about Angela Merkel???

The silence from Angela Merkel, this former Chancellor of Germany, is positively deafening! 

Recall Angela Merkel, together with former German Chancellor, Gerhard Schröder (left), pushing Nord Stream2 as their pet 'economic' project since 2015 , a year AFTER Putin illegally invaded, and annexed, Ukraine's Crimea, ! 

And still true to form, as Damien McGuinness also reports,

"On military support for Ukraine, Berlin says it is prepared to send whatever weapons Kyiv needs. But there are allegations that some [German] ministries are getting tied up in bureaucracy. " (ibid Damien McGuinness) (my emphasis)

And whilst German bureaucracy dithers about sending heavy weapons, such as tanks and fighter jets, to Ukraine to fight against Russia, 

• Humanitarian corridors were closed Sunday due to failed talks between the two countries. That left as many as 100,000 civilians trapped in Mariupol with no way out. (NPR : 17 April 2022) (my emphasis)
• After enduring a brutal assault for more than a month, Ukrainian fighters in the besieged southeastern port city of Mariupol rejected a Russian deadline to surrender on Sunday and vowed to fight on." (CNN : 17 April 2022) (my emphasis) 
• ...
  

Travis Caldwell and Helen Regan : CNN : 18 April 2022

And as reported by Khaleda Rahman (left),

"Nina Khrushcheva, the great-granddaughter of the late Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev, has warned that Russia may be prepared to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. [  ] said she fears Russian President Vladimir Putin may eventually deploy tactical nuclear weapons to claim victory in Ukraine."  (Newsweek : 17 April 2022) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile, in France, President Macron still refuses to publically acknowledge that Putin is committing 'genocide' in Ukraine.

As reported by the Economic Times of India,

"The Ukrainian leader said he believed Macron was shying away from using the term "genocide" -- a term Biden has now used regarding the war in Ukraine -- because he thinks it would hurt the chances for diplomatic engagement with Russia.

Macron is in the heat of an election campaign, with a second-round vote against far-right politician Marine Le Pen set for next Sunday.
...
He told France's Radio Bleu on Thursday that it was not helpful to Ukraine "to enter into verbal escalations without drawing all of the conclusions."
...
"The word 'genocide' has a meaning" and "needs to be characterized legally, not by politicians." (Economic Times of India : 17 April 2022) (my emphasis)

Which rather underscores the fact that, since the beginning of Putin's second invasion of Ukraine, Macron still treads the discredited political line of appeasement with Putin that Germany's political elite now regard as "a mistake"!

As I have stated, "At what point does one say, "Enough is enough!""

(to be continued)

Putin's Battle for the Donbas will determine his fate.

 India TV News reports that,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin has appointed a new commander, Alexandr Dvornikov (left), who would take care of the Ukraine campaign. The newly appointed general is known for his brutal nature and was dubbed the "butcher of Syria". (India TV News : 11 April 2022) (my emphasis)

Alexandr Dvornikov was given the task to, "to come up with a plan to annex Donbass from Ukraine." (ibid India TV News).

In the words of Lt. General Mark Hertling (right), during a CNN interview,

Lt. General Mark Hertling : "He knows the area in which he's serving, and the way he's conducted his combat operations in the past has caused him to ... he's received a lot of medals from Putin himself but he has also been the kind of executioner that we've seen prosecuting his kind of campaigns where there is an awful lot of civilian attacks, civilian destruction, chaos on populations both in Syria and in Grozny .. So this is the guy that is going to be asked to deliver success before the 9 May May Day parade in Moscow."  (CNN : YouTube : 10 April 2022) 

As the White House Press Secretary, Jen Psaki, also explains in a Fox News interview (10 April 2022),

Jen Psaki : "The reports we're seeing of a change in military leadership, and putting a general (Alexandr Dvornikov) in charge whose responsible for the brutality of the atricities inside of Syria shows that there's going to be a continuation of what we've seen on the grounds in Ukraine. And that's  what we are expecting". (Fox News: Youtube: 10 April 2022) (my emphasis)
 

Already, as reported by Al Jazeera,

"Russian missiles destroyed an airport in the Ukrainian city of Dnipro and five emergency workers were injured in the attack.
...
“There has been another attack on Dnipro airport. There is nothing left of it,” Valentyn Reznichenko, governor of the central Dnipropetrovsk region, said on Sunday." (Al Jazeera : 10 April 2022) (my emphasis) (cf also: BBC News , Reuters )

And whilst Alexandr Dvornikov is starting his genocidal 'blitzkrieg' against the Ukrainian civilians in Dnipro, The Telegraph Online informs us that,

"Russia staged war games on Saturday in Kaliningrad — an enclave on the Baltic Sea sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania — Interfax news agency cited the Baltic Fleet Command as saying.
...
“Up to 1,000 military personnel... and more than 60 military equipment units were involved in the control checks,” Interfax news quoted the Russian Baltic Fleet Command’s press service as saying." (The Telegraph Online : 11 April 2022) (my emphasis)

Whilst these war games of Putin in Kaliningrad could be viewed as a 'maskirovka' diversionary tactic to deflect the eyes of the West from Alexandr Dvornikov's impending blitzkrieg in the Donbas, nonetheless it also ramps up a potential 'spill-over' into Lithuania, a NATO ally.

These Kaliningrad war games could also be directed against Finland and Sweden, who are on the verge of joining NATO.

As reported by Jennifer Hansler and Natasha Bertrand (left),

"Finland and Sweden could soon join NATO, moves that would likely infuriate Moscow and that officials say would further underscore Russia's strategic error in invading Ukraine.

NATO officials told CNN that discussions about Sweden and Finland joining the bloc have gotten extremely serious since Russia's invasion, and US senior State Department officials said the matter came up at this week's NATO foreign ministerial, which was attended by the foreign ministers from Stockholm and Helsinki." (CNN : 9 April 2022) (my emphasis)

As Finland and Sweden swiftly head towards joining NATO, the accelerating downturn of Putin's Russian economy is further compounding his fury against the failures of his army Generals to capture Kiev.

As explained in a BBC interview by Vladimir Milov (left), former Deputy Energy Minister in Putin's government,

Vladimir Milov : "[The effects of sanctions against Putin and his 'siloviki'] ... is being noticed. The basic shortages that we had are mostly the result of panic .... However, the worst is yet to come [....] So  I would say so far is just the very early stage ... there is more to come ... This is very alarming ... We haven't seen anything like that [effects of current sanctions] in ... like .. 30 years ...  We will see some real shortages, much sharper price rises in April ... May ... June ... and further down in summer ..." (BBC Talking Business : 9 April 2022) (my emphasis) 

In the same interview, Putin's former Chief Economic Advisor, Andrei Illarianov (right), explains,

Andrei Illarianov : "We have learned that for Mr. Putin, his territorial ambitions are much more important than anything else,  including the livelihood of the Russian population, the financial situation in the country, even the financial state of his government" (ibid BBC Talking Business) (my emphasis)

With Sweden and Finland fast heading into the arms of NATO, and the Russian economy and people beginning to feel the crippling effects of sanctions on their livelihoods and their jobs, Putin's pathological anger to ensure that he can hold a victorious May Day parade has led him to set in motion an impending bloodbath against both Russian soldiers and the  people of Ukraine in his Battle for the Donbas.

Putin's Battle for the Donbas will determine his fate.  

(to be continued)