Putin's economy, and Germany's increasing military expenditure

A little over a month ago (June 18, 2015 ), Mikhail Khodorkovsky stated that,

"The Russia-Ukraine conflict has no short-term solution and is part of a fabricated conflict with the West to distract everyday Russians from corruption and incompetence .... " (RFERL : June 18, 2015) (my emphasis)

And in yesterday's blog entry I mentioned that Delphine d'Amora  (right) succintly pointed out that,

"Three years ago, President Vladimir Putin promised the Russian people a kind of utopia: salaries would grow by up to 50 percent, average life expectancy would rise to 74 and waiting lists at kindergartens would disappear.
.....
Russia's regional governments have fallen deeply into debt under the weight of these pledges. And with a drop in aid from the federal budget, which is increasingly tied up in such expensive projects as military rearmament and the integration of Crimea, relief is nowhere in sight." (Moscow Times : Jul. 15 2015) (my emphasis)

More pertinent, however, Vitaliy Portnikov (below: left) wrote on 5 July, 2015, that,

"As paradoxical as it may sound, despite its 4 percent decline, Ukraine’s GDP is rising. It is rising–despite the war, the populist politicians, the sabotaging officials, the still paternalistic society, the lack of a professional approach to reform." (Euromaidan Press :5 July, 2015) (my emphasis)

At the same time he pointed out that:

(1) Both countries have almost the same decline in GDP: Ukraine – 4 percent as compared with the fourth quarter of last year. In Russia it’s 3.5 percent

(2) And this despite the fact that Ukraine has lost territory, while Russia has acquired territory.

(3) This despite the fact that there is a war in Ukraine, while in Russia there is peace.

(4) This despite the fact that Ukraine has no energy to export, while Russia has both oil and gas.  
      (ibid Vitaly Portnikov) (my emphasis)

More recently (23 Jul 2015), David Lidington and Konrad Pawlik (right) have informed us that,

"Recently a senior figure from the IMF – an organization not usually given to hyperbole – said that the new Ukrainian Government is the ‘most reform-oriented government’ that he had encountered in 20-plus years of dealing with Ukraine." (EurActiv : 23 Jul 2015) (my emphasis)

They also point out that it has taken a peaceful Poland, together with its accession to the EU, and without having to suffer a war with Putin's Russia, 25 years to achieve its current position as an independent and thriving democratic state.

They further point out that,

".....  Ukraine’s democratic transformation will take time. We all know from our own experience, the road to reform is a long one. It will require patience and determination on the part of the Ukrainian people and their elected officials." (ibid Lidington and Pawlik) (my emphasis)

Yet the western press in particular has recently focused its attention on reporting the conflict between Poroshenko and Dmytro Korchynsky, the commander of the right-wing "Saint Mary", a volunteer battalion, even though, as the 2014 election results show,

"Six or seven parties look likely enter the new parliament, with a mixture of nationalists and a pro-Russian bloc scraping past the 5% threshold to fill out the bottom tier. The results are a bitter defeat for both the far right and the far left, and a signal in favour of moderation from voters seeking calm after a long storm." (The Economist : Oct 27th 2014)

How disturbing that the current conflict between the Ukrainian right-winger Dmytro Korchynsky and Poroshenko rather eclipses the significant move to the right of the Hungarian Prime Minister, Victor Orban (right), who recently stated that,

"...black African immigrants come here and rape European women and that the Hungarian Left does not like Hungarians...”. ( Richard Field : The Budapest Beacon: July 26, 2015)

Even more pertinent, as Anton Shekhovtsov informs us,

"As I have argued previously in this blog, the overwhelming majority of Ukrainian far right organizations are criminal gangs that exploit a radical right-wing ideology for mobilization purposes. The incident in Mukacheve seems to be an example of a criminal (far right) group trying to hijack an illegal business operated by another (non-political) criminal gang." (Anton Shekhovtsov's Blog : 13 July,2015) (my emphasis)

No doubt Putin is receiving comfort from this conflict between Poroshenko and  Dmytro Korchynsky, whilst he bankrolls France's Marine Le Pen's right-wing Front Nationale, and invites Sarkozy's members of the French parliament to visit annexed Crimea. (right: Marine Le Pen and Nicolas Sarkozy)

Russia's puppet government in Crimea greets the French MPs.

But whilst all of this is giving Putin some comfort, Jess McHugh informs us that,

 

"The German military plans to spend an additional 20 million euros, or $21 million, on its military budget this year in preparation for NATO military exercises in September, the German Defense Ministry (Ursula von der Leyen : left) announced  Thursday. The NATO exercises are set to take place in Ukraine amid criticism that they are a thinly veiled warning to Russia about its involvement in the violent civil conflict in Ukraine." (International Business Times : July 30 2015)

Putin must, indeed, be spitting nails at this German development, just as Reuters informs us that,

"Ukraine's state security service on Wednesday named a Russian army major who was detained by Ukrainian servicemen at the weekend with a cargo of military equipment in eastern Ukraine and said he had been charged with terrorism." (Reuters : Wed Jul 29, 2015) (my emphasis)

Mo Ahmad, of Press Examiner, also informs us that,

"Vladimir Starkov – an army major who got lost while driving a truck filled with explosives to a guerrilla outpost. But he admitted that he was a chief of an RAO (rocket-artillery weapons unit)." (Press Examiner : July 30, 2015)

Will Putin now also disown this Russian soldier, as he has done so many times to other Russian soldiers captured by the Ukrainian forces?

Putin's lies, not only directed towards the west but, more importantly, towards the Russian people itself, must be beginning to give him sleepless nights.

And, as I have said before, Putin becomes very dangerous when he discovers that he has painted himself into a 'diplomatic' corner.

(to be continued)

Putin and President Obama. The selling out of Ukraine.

Eight hours ago,

"Russia has used its veto at the UN to block a draft resolution to set up an international tribunal into the MH17 air disaster in July 2014.

It was the only nation at the 15-member UN Security Council to oppose the move, triggering widespread condemnation." (BBC News : 30 July,2015) (my emphasis)

Putin himself stated that,

"a tribunal would be "counter productive"". (ibid BBC)

And whilst Putin is exposing to the world his 'fear' of the truth emerging about the downing of MH17 by his proxies in eastern Ukraine who used Russian military equipment,  we learn that US political journalist Brian Whitmore speculates that,

"there have long been suspicions that the United States and Europe might give Ukraine up in exchange for Russia's support in securing a deal to curb Iran's nuclear program.
.....
"Moscow's endgame is to embed Russian territories back into Ukraine as a Trojan horse. And it is desperate to cut a deal to secure this result."  (Ukraine Today : Jul. 29, 2015) (my emphasis)

This endgame of Putin's is, in fact, being imposed upon Poroshenko by BOTH President Obama AND the EU's Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande.

As Vladimir Socor (right) explains,

"Berlin, Paris, Brussels and even Washington lack the means or the will to deal with that situation on the ground. Instead, they have taken to urging Kyiv to implement political clauses first, irrespective of Russia’s noncompliance on the military side; thus reversing the Minsk sequence and canceling even the pretense of reciprocity. Their policy can be described as “Minsk revisionism.” 

This generates concentric pressures on Ukraine, essentially to legitimize the Donetsk-Luhansk authorities through direct negotiations on political and constitutional issues. " (The Jamestown Foundation: July 20, 2015) (my emphasis)

Recall that on my June 24, 2015 blog entry I suggested that,

"The question that now needs to be asked is whether Merkel, Putin, and Hollande, who had a private Skype meeting about Ukraine without Poroshenko,

also discussed over the phone on Monday (Associated Press:22/06/2015) whether Ukraine should be,

"[carrying] out the “last” points of the Minsk agreement and not wait for Russia and the Russian-controlled militants to carry out their portion of the agreement." ( EuroMaidan Press)

It would now seem that this was, indeed, the case.

The Iran negotiations, together with dealing with ISIS and Bashar Al Assad, seems to be the endgame of President Obama. 

The United States presidential election of 2016 is expected to be held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016.

That is 16 months away. 

President Obama has entered the last stretch of his Presidency. From here on in his endgame requires him now to make deals with Putin.   

 President Obama has his legacy firmly in sight, and it does not include ruffling Putin's feathers over Ukraine.

As Vladimir Socor explains,

"The other context of Nuland’s (right) intervention [for Ukraine to implement political clauses first, irrespective of Russia’s noncompliance on the military side] is the diplomatic rapprochement between the United States and Russia over the Middle East. This has spawned the bilateral channel of Nuland and Russian Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister Grigory Karasin, to deal with the problem of Ukraine.  
...........
While Ukraine is directly represented in the Normandy Quartet, it is unrepresented in the Nuland-Karasin channel." (ibid Vladimir Socor) (my emphasis)

And whilst President Obama now quietly slips into becoming an ex-president NATO, on the other hand, is beefing up its training of Ukrainian soldiers. (BBC News : 26 July 2015)

 

Furthermore, Ukraine is beefing up the protection of its border with Transnistria.

As Christopher Harress reports,

"Ukraine on Friday placed up to 7,000 troops on its southern border with the breakaway Moldovan state of Transnistria fearing pro-Russian hostility in the region ..." (International Business Times : July 24 2015)

 And whilst Ukraine is protecting its borders and is at war with Russia, Lauren Davidson (right) informs us that,

"Shoplifting in Russia surged last year as the economic fallout from crippling sanctions and plunging oil prices increased the number of people living in poverty.

Some 930m rubles (£10.4m) of goods were stolen from Russian stories in 2014, an increase of 44pc on the 648m rubles-worth swiped the previous year." (Daily Telegraph : 23 Jul 2015) (my emphasis)

And as if this were not enough,

"This is what belt-tightening looks like in Russia: Vladimir Putin has fired 110,000 government officials at a stroke.

The Russian president signed a decree last week limiting the number of staff employed by the Interior Ministry to just over one million. That requires massive layoffs that will bring total headcount down by 10%." (Ivana Kottasova : CNN Money : July 24, 2015) (my emphasis)

Added to which,

"Three years ago, President Vladimir Putin promised the Russian people a kind of utopia: salaries would grow by up to 50 percent, average life expectancy would rise to 74 and waiting lists at kindergartens would disappear.
.....
Russia's regional governments have fallen deeply into debt under the weight of these pledges. And with a drop in aid from the federal budget, which is increasingly tied up in such expensive projects as military rearmament and the integration of Crimea, relief is nowhere in sight. 
......
In the first quarter of this year, 26 regions slashed spending on education, 21 cut health care spending and 16 curtailed spending on social security, she said.

"In this situation, it's the people who suffer. Especially vulnerable people, low-income people — for whom a rise in the cost of utilities is very serious — and people who receive social subsidies," [Natalya Zubarevich] said." (Delphine d'Amora : Moscow Times : Jul. 15 2015) (my emphasis)

Is it any wonder that 'shoplifting is now becoming a Russian pastime?
 
Yet, without so much as batting an eyelid, Putin simply,

"....[uses his veto] at the UN to block a draft resolution to set up an international tribunal into the MH17 air disaster in July 2014." (ibid BBC News)

 (to be continued)

Is Putin's 'strategy', and his 'oligarch' klan, beginning to unravel?

Andrey Illarionov (left), former Senior Economic advisor (2000-2005) to Putin, subsequently resigned from this position on 27 December 2005 saying that Russia was no longer politically free, but run by an authoritarian elite. "It is one thing to work in a country that is partly free. It is another thing when the political system has changed, and the country has stopped being free and democratic," he said. (Wikipedia)  (my emphasis)

And today, Paul Goble (right) informs us that recently,

"Speaking in Kremenchug this week (July 13, 2015), Andrey Illarionov said that Ukraine should continue to negotiate in its quest for peace but that it should reject the documents known as Minsk-2 because “the essence of this document is that the Ukrainian authorities are rejecting their sovereignty over the Ukrainian-Russian border.” (The Interpreter : July 13, 2015) (my emphasis)

Illarionov further states that,

"Minsk-2 requires that the Constitution of Ukraine be changed so that “the domestic and foreign policy of Ukraine will become a hostage of the decisions taken by separatists in the DNR and LNR” and by implication of those in Moscow who are supporting them." (ibid Paul Goble) (my emphasis)

In a speech delivered at the Atlantic Council on 7 Apr 2015, Illarionov informs us that possibly as long ago as 2004 Putin was already preparing for this war.

What is significant in the speech of Illarionov, amongst other things, is his proposition that,

"Is this war not only against Ukraine but also against the west? If we listen to Kremlin propaganda they would definately confirm "yes"."

This realization that Putin is ominously building up, and continuously exercising practically the whole Russian army, has led many NATO countries in the EU to similarly begin joint exercises, as in the case of the military exercise dubbed 'Rapid Trident'

"Ukraine's Defense Ministry says some 2,000 troops are involved in the exercises [in western Ukraine], dubbed Rapid Trident 2015, which was launched at the Yavoriv military training field in the Lviv region on July 20.

Almost 800 Ukrainian soldiers, more than 500 U.S. troops, and 700 other servicemen from 16 other countries are taking part in the drills that are expected to last until August 1." (RFERL : 21.07.2015)

Added to which, as Julian E. Barnes in Brussels and Gordon Lubold in Washington inform us,

"The Pentagon is moving toward providing Ukraine with bigger, longer-range radar to help it counter artillery being used by Russia-backed rebels, as U.S. military officials signal a growing willingness to bolster the country’s defenses." (Wall Street Journal: July 22, 2015) (my emphasis)

This comes just as,

"Ukrainian State Border Service troops in Luhansk region on July 22 downed an enemy drone, which was made in Russia, according to the service's media liaison office." (UNIAN : 22.07.2015) (my emphasis)

 
It is therefore no wonder that the 'Rapid Trident' military exercise in western Ukraine, together with Ukraine being provided with longer-range radar has, to say the least, evoked the usual angry response from Putin.

"The Russian envoy to NATO, Aleksandr Grushko (left), said on July 21 that the maneuvers "disrupt" the process of implementing the Minsk agreement signed in February and aimed at putting an end to fighting between government forces and Russian-backed separatist rebels in eastern Ukraine." (ibid RFERL) (my emphasis)

And if this were not enough, Ivan Nechepurenko of the Moscow Times reveals that,

"...prominent Russian Kremlin critic Maria Gaidar's (right) decision to become a deputy to Mikheil Saakashvili, the current head of Ukraine's Odessa region, demonstrates the extent to which the ongoing conflict has divided the two countries ....." (Moscow Times : Jul. 20 2015) (my emphasis)


 "This is not just a local conflict between Russia and Ukraine, it is a conflict of values, a civilizational conflict between freedom, democracy, honesty, normal business and Soviet bureaucratic oligarchical gangsterism," said Gaidar, the daughter of Russia's reformist late prime minister Yegor Gaidar (left), who introduced sweeping market reforms in the country in 1992." (ibid Ivan Nechepurenko) (my emphasis)

 Like any other Mafia gangster group Putin's oligarchs, who have been targeted by the sanctions of the US, the EU, Canada, and Japan, amongst other western nations, are now circumventing the sanctions imposed upon them by simply transferring their wealth to their children

"Russian oligarchs hit by American sanctions have transferred significant assets to their offspring, an investigation by The Times reveals." (Ukrainian News : July 22, 2015) (my emphasis)

 

 I am reminded of the late Boris Nemtsov's exposure, IN 2012, of this relationship between Putin's oligarchs and their children. (add English subtitles by clicking on settings)

Maybe now the research of Karen Dawisha into the corrupt financial aspects of Putin's regime will finally be used as a counter to Putin's weaponising of information, as exposed by  Peter Pomarentsev.

(to be continued)
 

Is Putin's 'maskirovka' diplomatic strategy failing?

On Saturday (18 July, 2015), that dyed-in-the-wool Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov,

".....held separate talks Saturday with his Ukraine, US and German counterparts, the Kremlin announced, as fighting spikes in eastern Ukraine." (Agence France Press AFP : 18 July 2015)

 (image left: Lavrov, Kerry, Klimkin, Steinmeier)


What is significant is that, for some reason, the French foreign minister, Laurent Fabius (right), was rather conspicuously left out of these 'separate talks'.

Recall that in my last blog entry (Friday, 17 July 2015) I wrote that,

"Yesterday the Ukrainian Rada (parliament) took the first steps towards giving the rebels in eastern Ukraine temporary self-rule. As Dmitry Zaks informs us,

"Ukraine's parliament took the first step Thursday toward granting temporary self-rule to pro-Russian rebels under a change to the constitution the West hopes can end one of Europe's deadliest wars in recent years." (AFP : 17 July, 2015) (my emphasis)"

I also commented that,

"Are we all to naively assume, as Washington and its allies believe that,

"....partial self-rule could satisfy the insurgents and remove any arguments Russia may have for arming and funding their campaign -- support Moscow firmly denies ever giving."? (ibid Dmitry Zaks) (my emphasis)"

And, true to form, Lavrov,

" ...... called on his Ukrainian counterpart to "resolve the questions concerning the constitutional reform project," aimed at offering more autonomy to the separatist regions, which Russia dismissed last week as just a parody of its obligations under the Minsk truce agreement." (ibid AFP) (my emphasis)

Putin's diplomatic trap is to ensnare Poroshenko into 'talking to his rebel-proxies in eastern Ukraine', thus giving not only his rebel-proxies, but also his 'Novorossiya dreams', diplomatic legitimacy. 

Lavrov underlined in his conversation with US Secretary of State, John Kerry,

" .....  Moscow's annoyance that Kiev did not include rebel representatives in its constitutional reform discussions

 

"They can't just walk away from the framework of the (Minsk) obligations, in particular those concerning the direct dialogue between Kiev, Donetsk and Lugansk," he stressed during his conversation with US Secretary of State John Kerry." (ibid AFP) (my emphasis)

Further underlining the 'maskirovka' mentality of Putin and his ilk in the Kremlin, NBC News informs us that,

"Ukraine and pro-Russian rebels accused each other on Saturday of shelling residential areas despite a ceasefire, reporting four civilians and one soldier killed following a week of the deadliest fighting in over a month." (NBC News : 19 July, 2015) (cf also: DW [Deutsche Welle] and BBC News)

 Video of shelling in Donetsk taken 19 July, 2015

Even more ominous, Putin's soldiers and Russian proxies in eastern Ukraine are positioning themselves for a major offensive, according to Kiev-based journalist Thomas Theiner. (cf. Map, left, explained) 

But perhaps what should be morally repugnant to many is the  fact that, in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary, the shooting down of the passenger airline Flight MH17 (right) over eastern Ukraine by Putin's rebel-proxies is still adamently denied by Putin himself.

"While Russian President Vladimir Putin has yet to take any responsibility for the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17, Russian citizens have stepped up in their own way and met the tragedy with an outpouring of love and sorrow in the form of memorial tributes for the MH17 victims and their families." (Inquisitr :  July 22, 2014) (my emphasis)

 

 Russian citizens have been creating memorial tributes in front of Dutch Embassies in honor of the victims of the downed Malaysian Airlines Flight MH17. The Woman’s sign reads “PUTIN TERRORIST.”

Also, as reported by BBC News,

"A roll call of those who died in the MH17 air disaster and a procession to the crash site have marked the first anniversary of the tragedy over eastern Ukraine, in which 298 people died." (BBC News: 17 July 2015)

No matter how much money Putin throws at his "disinformation" and propaganda machines viz. RT, Sputnik, and RT Ruptly, the truth always has a way of bubbling to the surface.

Is it therefore any wonder that, notwithstanding his 'constant denial' about Russian soldiers operating in eastern Ukraine, AFP (Agence France Press) informs us that,

"Dozens of Russian soldiers are facing trial for fleeing their unit, fearing deployment to Ukraine, a news site and a lawyer for five of the men said Saturday.

The popular Gazeta.ru website said several dozen soldiers would be prosecuted after fleeing a training ground in southern Russia where they were under pressure to "volunteer" to fight in Ukraine." (AFP : July 11, 2015) (my emphasis) (cf also: DW [Deutsche Welle])

If Putin has absolute control over the 'weaponizing of information' through his TOTAL control over Russian Media, both locally and internationally, he simply cannot control the impact of international sanctions against Russia.

Thus, as reported by Delphine d'Amora (right) of the Moscow Times, 

"Three years ago, President Vladimir Putin promised the Russian people a kind of utopia: salaries would grow by up to 50 percent, average life expectancy would rise to 74 and waiting lists at kindergartens would disappear.

.... the Kremlin's political ambitions have pushed domestic concerns into the shadows.

Russia's regional governments have fallen deeply into debt under the weight of these pledges. And with a drop in aid from the federal budget, which is increasingly tied up in such expensive projects as military rearmament and the integration of Crimea, relief is nowhere in sight."(Moscow Times : Jul. 15 2015) (my emphasis)

Even the forthcoming hosting of the World Cup in Russia has not been immune from the effects of sanctions. As reported by the Associated Press (AP),

"In a country battered by economic problems and Western sanctions, Russian officials aren't boasting of their World Cup's size and extravagance. With cost-cutting in vogue, they prefer to brag about cheap stadiums." (Moscow Times : Jul. 13 2015) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile,

"US company Frontera to build the gas terminal which will help Ukraine gain energy independence

Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk has revealed US investors are planning to build a LNG-terminal in Ukraine's southern region as the country aims to gain energy independence within five years." (UT : Jul. 17, 2015) (my emphasis)

 

Is it therefore any wonder that that Soviet dyed-in-the-wool Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, has recently yet again tried to come up with all sorts of 'diplomatic and interpretive 'maskirovka' ploys' to try and emasculate the Minsk2 proposals, proposals that can rightly be regarded as Putin's Minsk2 proposals?

As I have stated above,

" ... true to form, Lavrov,

" ...... called on his Ukrainian counterpart to "resolve the questions concerning the constitutional reform project," aimed at offering more autonomy to the separatist regions, which Russia dismissed last week as just a parody of its obligations under the Minsk truce agreement." (ibid AFP) (my emphasis)"

Putin now has to time his budding offensive towards Mariupol with caution, lest his 'Novorossiya house of cards' comes tumbling down. 

Maybe, just maybe, it is finally dawning upon him that his 'weaponization of disinformation' is a very fickle weapon indeed. 

No matter how much money Putin throws at his 'disinformation weapons' of RT, Sputnik, and RT Ruptly in particular, the old adage still holds true that:

You can fool some of the people all of the time

All of the people some of the time

But you cannot fool all of the people ALL of the time

(to be continued)

Putin and Obama. The Ukrainian war begins to unravel.

Yesterday the Ukrainian Rada (parliament) took the first steps towards giving the rebels in eastern Ukraine temporary self-rule. As Dmitry Zaks (left) informs us,

"Ukraine's parliament took the first step Thursday toward granting temporary self-rule to pro-Russian rebels under a change to the constitution the West hopes can end one of Europe's deadliest wars in recent years." (AFP : 17 July, 2015) (my emphasis)

It should not go un-noticed that the Minsk2 proposals, with Putin's fingerprints all over them, amongst other conditions stipulates that BEFORE temporary self-rule should be implemented that :

• there should be an IMMEDIATE AND FULL ceasefire
• withdrawal of heavy weaponry
• On the first day after the pullout a dialogue is to start on modalities of conducting local elections in accordance with the Ukrainian legislation and the Law of Ukraine "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts," and also about the future of these districts based on the above-mentioned law. 
• Pullout of all foreign armed formations, military equipment, and also mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine under OSCE supervision. Disarmament of all illegal groups.

Yet three days ago (15 July, 2015) AP reports that,

"Eight Ukrainian troops were killed and 16 wounded in war-torn eastern Ukraine in a 24-hour period from Tuesday morning until Wednesday morning, officials in Kiev said.

The death toll released by the National Security and Defense Council is the highest in weeks, pointing to intensifying fighting in the area." (Mail Online : 15 July 2015) (my emphasis) (cf also Reuters : July 15, 2015)

Why, therefore, has Victoria Nuland applauded the first steps in the granting of "temporary self-rule" to the Putin and rebel-held territories in eastern Ukraine?

Are we all to naively assume, as Washington and its allies believe that,

"....partial self-rule could satisfy the insurgents and remove any arguments Russia may have for arming and funding their campaign -- support Moscow firmly denies ever giving."? (ibid Dmitry Zaks) (my emphasis)

Throughout his war with Ukraine, Putin has simple ignored BOTH the Minsk1 and the Minsk2 protocols. 

Putin has constantly lied through his teeth about there not being any Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine, even in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

Instead of granting temporary self-rule in eastern Ukraine as a  prelude   to 'diplomatically wrong-footing' (which is purely imaginary) Putin, we should be focusing on the fact that Putin has recently

• accelerated the volume of military equipment and Russian soldiers flooding into the rebel-held areas in eastern Ukraine,
• and only "last month defence minister Stepan Poltorak estimated that there were 55,000" Russian troops on Ukraine's border. (Damien Sharkov : Newsweek : 13 July, 2015)

Damien Sharkov further reports that,

"Poroshenko recently visited some of the easternmost positions held by pro-Kiev forces in Donetsk region, including the port city Mariupol (right), the outskirts of which have sustained some of the most persistent attacks from pro-Russian separatists since February.

"We have information about possible key targets of attacks and we regularly perform staff exercises," Poroshenko said." (my emphasis)

Why, then, should we believe that giving the rebel-held territories in eastern Ukraine "temporary self-rule" will force Putin to withdraw his troops and military equipment from Ukraine, whilst at the same time removing his army encamped on the border with Ukraine?

Ukraine is being none other than 'blackmailed' by Washington and its EU allies to give in to Putin because Putin has helped President Obama from having 'egg all over his face' on the Iran issue.

Perhaps, even more significantly,

"Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk is grappling with an effort to restructure his country's upcoming debt payments and keeping one eye on the other country caught in a similar—but far more clamorous—process elsewhere on the fringes of Europe: Greece." (Eamon Javers : CNBC : Wednesday, 15 Jul 2015) (my emphasis)

There is, furthermore, another factor that has to be taken into account.

Today the German Bundestag, like all parliaments in the Eurozone, vote on the Greek bailout.

 Peter Spence and Julia Bradshaw report that right now, in the German Bundestag,

"Sahra Wagenknecht (left), of Germany's socialist Die Linke party, has said that Germany's politicians will be right back to negotiating Greece again in another year.

Mr Schaeuble has admitted that he doesn't have confidence in another bail-out, she said, and the package will be just a drop in the ocean.

Speaking in the Bundestag, Ms Wagenknecht noted the IMF's projection that Greek debt to GDP will soon hit 200pc. She has called the German Government's handling of taxpayer money "shocking". (The Telegraph : 17 Jul 2015)

As I write, the German Bundestag has not yet come to a definitive decision.

But what Sahra Wagenknecht has so far said should give Angela Merkel serious cause for concern.

Merkels Chancellorship of Germany is under serious threat. And if she falls then President Obama will be left without his staunchest supporter in the EU, especially concerning the arming of Ukraine with lethal defensive weaponry.

In the next few days the ball concerning aiding Ukraine both financially AND militarily will be firmly in the court of President Obama.

Ukraine will be to President Obama what Greece is now to Angela Merkel. 

President Obama's presidential legacy is here at stake. 

Will he go down as the US President who sold out Ukraine to Putin?

(to be continued)

Putin and Hollande ... The new duo rising above the Ukrainian horizon?

Finally the mask behind which Merkel and Hollande were hiding their true 'sympathies' with Putin has finally slipped down.

AFP (Agence France Press) now informs us that,

"German chancellor Angela Merkel and French president Francois Hollande took the rare step on Friday of pressing Ukraine's Western-backed leader to ensure partial self-rule for the pro-Russian separatist east." (The Telegraph : 10 Jul 2015) (my emphasis)

On my 24th June blog entry I wrote that,

"The question that now needs to be asked is whether Merkel, Putin, and Hollande, who had a private Skype meeting about Ukraine without Poroshenko, (AP : June 22, 2015)

also discussed over the phone on Monday whether Ukraine should be,

"[carrying] out the “last” points of the Minsk agreement and not wait for Russia and the Russian-controlled militants to carry out their portion of the agreement." (EuroMaidan Press :24/06/2015)

After all,

"French President Francois Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel lamented the "insufficient" progress in resolving the Ukraine crisis after a telephone conversation Monday with Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to a source close to the French president." (AFP : June 22, 2015) (my emphasis)

Putin seems to have answered this question when he,

"...emphasized the need for Ukraine to conduct political settlement and provide social and economic assistance to the eastern region, according to the Kremlin." (ibid AP) (my emphasis)

Needless to say, following on from Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande announcing that Poroshenko should "ensure partial self-rule for the pro-Russian separatist east Ukraine", Reuters informs us that a 'cheering',

"Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Friday that there were more chances for Ukraine crisis to be successfully resolved rather than for it to fail.

He also said efforts to resolve the crisis have been hindered by Kiev's reluctance to directly negotiate with the rebels in east Ukraine." (Reuters : Friday Jul 10, 2015)

The fact that the Minsk2 protocols were practically written by Putin himself, and that Putinversteher Angela Merkel, and Francois Hollande, are finally caving in to Putin's demands, also signals that Francois Hollande is now taking over from Merkel as the key EU negotiator with Putin over his war with Ukraine.

As Gordon Rayner (right) reports,

"Merkel has lost. Germany has lost.” Not the reaction from a rabidly left-wing Greek tabloid to the country’s referendum vote, but from Benoit Hamon (left), the former French education minister and ally of Francois Hollande.

For Mr Hamon, the resounding “no” vote was “an opportunity for Francois Hollande to resume leadership” in Europe. Old divisions run deep across the continent, and the Greek crisis brought them right back to the surface as Europe’s financial superpowers squabbled like children at playtime. (The Telegraph : 06 Jul 2015)

And as Angela Merkel is now being eclipsed by Francoise Hollande as the 'EU leader' in Europe,

"The nominee to be the next chairman of the [US] Joint Chiefs of Staff said Thursday that Russia poses the greatest national security threat to the United States and that it would be "reasonable" to supply lethal arms to Ukrainians fighting against rebels backed by Moscow.

"Russia presents the greatest threat to our national security. ... If you look at their behavior, it's nothing short of alarming," Marine Gen. Joseph Dunford (above) said during his confirmation hearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee." (Fox News (AP) : July 09, 2015)

If, as suggested by Benoit Hamon, Francoise Hollande now takes over the 'leadership' role in Europe, and given the underlying antipathy of the French towards the US since the time of De Gaulle (not to mention the historical 'love affair' between the French intellectuals and Russia), we can then expect a swift call by Hollande that:

• EU sanctions against Russia be re-negotiated (especially in light of the current Mistral affair between Putin and Hollande)
• greater pressure to be brought upon Poroshenko to give in to Putin's demands
• US support for Poroshenko, especially military support, to be 'diplomatically' undermined
• decisions about EU economic support for Ukraine to be dragged out ....

to name but a few 'Hollande inspired' political developments if he takes over the leadership role in Europe.

More intrestingly, the time has now come to ponder just how long Angela Merkel can maintain her position as Chancellor of Germany.

As Kate Connolly (right) writes,

"Germany’s ruling coalition appears to be deeply split over Greece’s latest reform proposals ahead of a climactic meeting of EU leaders at the weekend......
.......
“This is the toughest time in her chancellorship so far. Can she resist the voices of opposition within her own party to push through a third bailout in the Bundestag that most of them are against?” said Artur Fischer.

“She is facing huge internal difficulties that have the potential to end her chancellorship." (The Guardian : Friday 10 July 2015) (my emphasis)

And as Hollande's star seems to be rising over Europe, whilst Merkel's is beginning to wane (even in her own country), the OSCE informs us that,

"The situation at and around the Donetsk airport was volatile. Between 08:00 and 18:00hrs, at the Joint Centre for Control and Co-ordination (JCCC) observation point at Donetsk central railway station (“Donetsk People’s Republic” (“DPR”)-controlled, 8km north-west of Donetsk city centre), the SMM heard nearly 500 explosions, consistent with incoming and outgoing mortar fire, as well as bursts consistent with small-arms, automatic grenade launcher, heavy machine-gun (HMG) and anti-aircraft gun fire." (OSCE : 8 July 2015) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, Natalia Zinets informs us that,

"The level of guerrilla and terrorist threats in the regions outside the zone (of conflict) has significantly risen," Poroshenko (left) said.

He said weapons were being trafficked from the conflict zone. With police resources focused on the east, "there will be an increase in grievous and especially life-threatening crimes" in other parts of Ukraine, he said." (Reuters : Fri Jul 10, 2015) (my emphasis)

Confirming Poroshenko's anxieties,

"An armed assault has left three postal service employees dead in the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, local police reported Friday, July 10, acccording to Ukrainian news agency TSN." (Ukraine Today : Jul. 10, 2015)

The Greek economic crisis has deepened the fissure between those EU members in support of Poroshenko, and those who support Putin.

Angela Merkel has tried to straddle that fissure, but to no avail. In the end, the legacy of the German 'Ostpolitic' of Willy Brandt has begun to overwhelm her.

How Hollande will cope with the pro-Ukraine and ptro-Putin camps in the EU remains to be seen. Thus far he has leaned strongly towards the pro-Putin camp.

Like his predecessor, Nikolas Sarkozy, will Hollande, too, enjoy a 'liquid' lunch of vodka with Putin, as once did Sarkozy, that rather exemplifies that historical 'French-Russian love affair'?

(to be continued)