Putin, Obama, and Poroshenko at the UN. Putin's poisoned chalice.

On 17th September, 2015, Ivan Tsvetkov was already speculating about what Putin would say in his September 28th address to the UN General Assembly.

"All eyes and ears will be tuned to the Russian president for potentially scandalous denunciations of the United States and its allies, and off-the-wall solutions to international exigencies." (Russia Direct : 17th September, 2015) (my emphasis)

And when his turn to address the UN General Assembly on Monday,

" [the] much-anticipated speech by President Vladimir Putin to the United Nations General Assembly on Monday saw the Russian leader criticize Western policy in the Middle East and Ukraine, but did not deliver any surprises or dramatic new policy initiatives." (Howard Amos : Moscow Times : Sep. 28 2015)

In fact, his speech rather failed to surprise, even though,

"The build-up to Putin's address was given blanket coverage by state-controlled media in Russia with newscasters and pundits promising a "historic" moment." (ibid Howards Amos) (my emphasis)

 

As anticipated, Putin used this world stage to deflect international eyes away from Ukraine, concentrating instead on the current critical situation in Syria.

Prior to Putin mounting the rostrum to deliver his speech, Obama had already used his annexation of Crimea, and his invasion of eastern Ukraine, as examples of the trampling over the principles of what the UN is built upon, and for what it stands.

Poroshenko, in his address to the UN General Assembly,

"...  derided Russia's call for the creation of an international antiterrorism coalition, saying the Russians inspire terrorism on their own doorstep and back bellicose puppet governments.
........
Poroshenko renewed accusations that Russia finances, trains and supplies pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine, while sending heavy weapons and Russian troops, with insignias removed from their uniforms, to help battle Ukrainian forces loyal to the Kiev government."(Louis Charbonneau : Reuters : Tue Sep 29) (my emphasis)

Posroshenko rather succinctly expressed what Aleksandr Golts suggests, namely that,

"Vladimir Putin has nothing positive to offer toward the resolution of any of the crises he has helped create, but he has succeeded in getting a meeting today with US President Barack Obama because the Kremlin leader has shown himself capable of causing ever more crises, something others want to prevent if they can.

            That diplomatic strategy may get Putin the international attention Putin craves and likely needs to shore up his position at home as a leader who never makes mistakes, Aleksandr Golts suggests in today’s “Yezhednevny zhurnal,” but it is a profoundly dangerous one not only for the world but for Russia and Putin himself ... " (Paul Goble : Windows on Eurasia : Monday, September 28, 2015) (my emphasis)

   
Putin has used this strategy of 'crisis' creation before, notably against the Russian people, when his FSB agents orchestrated the 1999 bombings of apartment blocks in Russian cities which triggered Russia's onslaught in Chechnya.(cf: BBC News : RFERL : Amy Knight ..... amongst many other investigations that directly link Putin to the Moscow bombings in 1999)

Underscoring Putin's rather callous use of crises to shore up his vanishing stature as a world leader, Gardiner Harris and Somini Sengupta report that,

"In remarks about foreign Islamic State fighters that seemed clearly aimed at stoking fears in Europe, Mr. Putin said: “We cannot allow these criminals who have already felt the smell of blood to return back home and continue their evil doings. No one wants this to happen, does he?” (New York Times : Sept. 28, 2015) (my emphasis)

Perhaps even more indicative of Putin's total callousness towards the suffering of people is evidenced by the fact that his rebel-proxies in eastern Ukraine,

"...have forced UN humanitarian aid workers out of Ukraine, sparking fears millions of lives are at risk.
.....
The "alarming" ousting of UN agencies and NGO's has resulted in the suspension of vital humanitarian supplies into eastern parts of Ukraine, as the winter months approach.
UN aid chief Stephen O'Brien said the delivery of some 16,000 tons of supplies had been stopped, which he believes is "having a serious impact on some 3 million people."
He said: "Hospitals cannot perform surgery because they lack anaesthesia. Some 150,000 people are not receiving monthly food distributions." (Rebecca Perring : Express : Fri, Sep 25, 2015)

Let us remind ourselves that this action of Putin's rebel proxies in eastern Ukraine mirrors the actions of Putin in May of this year.

"President Vladimir Putin signed a bill into law Saturday giving prosecutors the power to declare foreign and international organizations "undesirable" in Russia and shut them down.
Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International have condemned the measure as part of an "ongoing draconian crackdown which is squeezing the life out of civil society."

The law is part of a Kremlin campaign to stifle dissent that intensified after Putin began his third term in 2012." (The World Post : 24/05/2015) (my emphasis)

Putin's proposal for an "international anti-terrorist coalition" is a poisoned chalice being presented to the world.

This proposal has nothing to do with the destruction of ISIS, nor with the beginning to resolve the crisis between Bashar Al Assad and the Syrian people.

Once again, Putin is cynically using the suffering of other people to shore up his increasingly tenuous hold on power.

(to be continued)

Putin's coming address to the UN General Assembly, and NATO's new agreements with Ukraine.

In 4 day's time, Putin will be mounting the rostrum at the UN to address the UN's General assembly.

What can we expect from him, since he, "... last attended the UN General Assembly in 2005"? (Moscow Times : Aug. 28 2015) (my emphasis)

No doubt he will be focusing on events in Syria, in particular trying to project himself as a 'bulwark against terrorism' whilst not even mentioning the fact that he is currently waging war in eastern Ukraine.

His denials about Russian soldiers not being in eastern Ukraine has been met with utter derision by the international community, especially in the face of a mountain of evidence showing that the Russian army is active in eastern Ukraine. Similar evidence is beginning to mount about Russian soldiers being active in Syria in support of Bashar Al Assad.

It is therefore no wonder that Ivan Tsvetkov (left) says that,

"As the leader of a great power, Putin should deliver a realistic assessment of the current threats to the world - primarily the Islamic State of Iraq and the Greater Syria (ISIS) - and show commitment to creating a mechanism of international cooperation that can withstand them, preferably under the auspices of the UN.  

However, given the present state of Russia-West relations cooperation is wishful thinking." (Russia Direct : Sep 17, 2015) (my emphasis)

Tsvetkov is correct in saying that any idea of co-operation between Russia and the West is, at this moment in time, wishful thinking.

Similarly, Eerik-Niiles Kross (left) and Molly K. McKew state that,

"....cooperation with Russia on Syria can have potentially disastrous consequences for the U.S., but too many Americans still don’t understand how closely linked these two headline conflicts are, and American policy has yet to confront the reality that Syria and Ukraine are part of the same mission for Russia—the destruction of the post-WWII architecture of the West." (Politico Magazine : September 22, 2015) (my emphasis)

And whilst Putin is pondering what he should say as he mounts the podium at the UN to address the General Assembly,

"NATO has expanded its cooperation with Ukraine, who hopes to be a full member in 2016, with the signing of new agreements on defense and technical cooperation.....

...Ukraine reaffirmed its NATO ambitions Tuesday, with Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk saying he hoped the country would become the organization’s 29th member in 2016." (World Bulletin : 23 September 2015 Wednesday) (my emphasis) 

And, with the help of NATO, dirty-bomb attack training is to take place in Ukraine.

"Ukraine aims to improve its ability to respond to a radioactive attack, and NATO aims to help.

... hundreds of civilian specialists, including British experts, will join Ukrainian Special Forces this week to simulate an event involving widespread contamination of an area with radioactive material."
(UT : Sep. 23, 2015) (my emphasis)

Furthermore,

"NATO is to modernise Ukraine's armed forces including with 'non-lethal' defensive equipment.
NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg on the last day of his trip to Ukraine said NATO would provide assistance in modernising Ukraine's armed forces, but without the supply of arms." (UT : Sep. 22, 2015) (my emphasis)

 

And whilst Ukraine is entering into defense and technical co-operation with NATO, and the Ukrainian army is to be modernised with the help of NATO, 

Anton Zverev reports that,

"Russia is planning a second major military base near the border with Ukraine, where NATO accuses Russian troops of helping pro-Moscow separatists fight Kiev's forces.

The new base will house 5,000 soldiers and heavy weaponry, according to public documents and people working at the site.

It is further east than one under construction in Belgorod region reported by Reuters earlier this month but still close to the border with separatist-held parts of Ukraine's eastern Luhansk region, where there has been heavy fighting." (Reuters : Wed Sep 23, 2015) (my emphasis)

This build-up of military bases near the Ukrainian border comes at the same time as Putin's rebel proxies in eastern Ukraine were, until recently, hell bent on carrying through their threat to hold an election in the eastern Ukraine territory currently under their control, that would have jeapordised  the current and rather fragile 'ceasefire'.

Milda Seputyte and Volodymyr Verbyany now inform us that,

"Separatist leaders in Ukraine are to propose delaying local elections by almost four months, signaling the increasing challenges of meeting a year-end deadline for implementing an agreement to resolve the conflict.

The self-declared Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic will suggest holding the elections on Feb. 21 at a meeting of the Ukraine contact group in Minsk .. " (Bloomberg Business : September 22, 2015) (my emphasis)

Notice, however, that these are only 'suggestions' and 'proposals' by Putin's rebel proxies of eastern Ukraine.

Notice, too, that this volte-face of Putin's rebel proxies has appeared rather suddenly, and coincidentally, just before Putin addresses the UN General Assembly next week.
  
What prevents them from going back on any 'suggestions or proposals' that they now may make, as soon as their commander-in-chief, Putin, has delivered his address to the UN General Assembly?

By so doing they will simply be imitating Putin himself, who is a master at going back on his 'word'. 

The diplomatic world is aware of this character trait of Putin. 

He is not to be trusted. He is a liar. After saying that 'little green men' had taken over Crimea, he later admitted publicly that they were, in fact, Russian soldiers.

So what will be the response of the UN General Assembly when he addresses them next week?

And lest we forget,

"Ukrainian military pilot Nadia Savchenko (left) has made a show of defiance, denying charges against her at the opening of her controversial trial in Russia.

She described the case, in which she is accused of involvement in the deaths of two Russian journalists, as a "piece of rubbish". (BBC News : 22 September 2015)

 
(to be continued)

Will Putin be able to regain his fallen stature when addressing the UN Assembly?

John Hall reports that,

"Ukrainian prosecutors are preparing charges against the director of a winery in Russian-occupied Crimea for allegedly uncorking a 240-year-old bottle for Russian President Vladimir Putin and former Italian premier Silvio Berlusconi.
........
Massandra was Ukrainian government property before being nationalized by Russia, following its annexation of Crimea in March 2014. It has rare wine and sherry dating back more than 200 years in its collection; one bottle fetched nearly £32,000 in 2001." (Mail Online : 18 September 2015) (my emphasis)

 Let us pause to remind ourselves about only some of the criminal charges that have been brought against the disgraced former prime minister of Italy, Silvio Berlusconi, a bosom buddy of Putin.

(1) Connection to the Mafia: Defendant together with Marcello Dell'Utri for money laundering.
(2) All Iberian 1: 23 billion lira (€11.9 million) bribe to Bettino Craxi via an offshore bank account code-named All Iberian.
(3) Mediaset trial 2: on a personal tax evasion of €7.3 million committed in 1994–98 through illicit trade of movie rights between secret fictive companies
(4) Pedophilia: "Silvio Berlusconi is to go on trial on 6 April, charged with paying an underage prostitute and then trying to cover up the alleged offence by abusing his position as Italy's prime minister. ( John Hooper : Guardian : Tuesday 15 February 2011)

So whilst, as reported by Unian,

"U.S. Vice President Joe Biden said that President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko and Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk have made important progress in the fight against corruption." (Unian : 19.09.2015) (my emphasis),

Putin and Berlusconi are publicly displaying, and reinforcing, the Mafia-like criminality of Putin's regime.

As Vice-President Joe Biden stated in his address at the Brookings Institute (30 May, 2015),

"So long as Ukraine leaders keep faith with the project of reform, the U.S. will continue to stand with them.” (UA Position : 30 May, 2015) (my emphasis)

Petro Poroshenko, speaking at the recent YES (Yalta European Strategy) Conference in Kiev, proposed that,

"Russia [..] be stripped of its UN Security Council veto, calling the country a “challenge to the democratic world” with “deadly new imperial ambitions”.(Matthew Day : The Telegraph : 11 Sep 2015) (my emphasis)

This "challenge to the democratic world " of Putin is best illustrated by his current Syrian gambit, as reported by Ivan Nechepurenko (right) of the Moscow Times.

 "The recent flood of media reports claiming that Russia is boosting its military presence in Syria has detracted international attention from the Ukraine conflict in what analysts say is likely a deliberate ploy on Moscow's part.
.......
“Syria is a bigger problem for the West, so Russia can use the uproar about it to camouflage what is happening in Ukraine,” said Dmitry Oreshkin, an independent political analyst. ( Moscow Times : Sep. 15 2015) (my emphasis)

What Putin is particularly aiming to camouflage in the rebel held territory of eastern Ukraine is, as outlined by the Deputy Head of the [Ukrainian] Presidential Administration Kostiantyn Yeliseyev (right),

"Ukraine has held consultations with the German side today to determine what measures should be taken to prevent militants from holding elections [in occupied eastern Ukraine]

...
"We hope that these messages and signals will finally reach the corresponding capital [Moscow], and these "elections" will be canceled, otherwise they will have unpredictable and negative implications for the entire process," Yeliseyev said." (UNIAN : 18.09.2015) (my emphasis)

What is even more disconcerting is that the real aim of Putin's proxies in eastern Ukraine is to,

"Despite [opposite] claims, the leaders of DPR and LPR want to hold [local] elections at the same time with the rest of Ukraine, that is on October 25, in order to obtain legitimate authority over the whole of Donbas, not just a small part of it, which is now under their control, - in case of reintegration [of the temporarily occupied areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions],"- the source has told the publication." (UNIAN : 05.08.2015) (my emphasis)

Putin is now trying to stoke the fires of disparate groups of 'separatists' throughout the EU and the US.

As Alec Luhn reports,

"The Russian government has helped fund a conference in Moscow to bring together separatists from the United States and eastern Ukraine, despite cracking down on its own dissidents.

...

Among international participants were representatives of Sinn Féin, the Catalan Solidarity for Independence party and Italy’s European Communitarian party Millennium, as well as separatist groups from Hawaii and Puerto Rico and the US-based radical black power Uhuru Movement." (The Guardian : Sunday 20 September 2015) (my emphasis)

This conference was simply to function as a 'legitimization' of the demands of Putin over control of eastern Ukraine, as voiced by his rebel proxies.

While Putin is subsidizing these disparate extreme left-wing groups in the EU and the US, the Russian people are having to tighten their belts even further as the cost of Putin's war with Ukraine, and his annexation of Ukrainian Crimea, bears down upon them.

As  Anna Andrianova (left) reports,

"A slump in Russian consumption showed no letup last month while a drop in investment stretched into the longest in two decades, highlighting the toll on the economy from lower oil prices and the latest wave of ruble depreciation.

Real wages declined 9.8 percent from a year earlier after a 9.2 percent drop in July, the Federal Statistics Service in Moscow said Thursday. Retail sales tumbled 9.1 percent on an annual basis, matching a revised 9.1 percent plunge a month earlier." (Bloomberg Business : September 17, 2015) (my emphasis)

 And whilst Putin's 'Mafia' cronies and his 'siloviki' are lining their pockets, whilst the ordinary Russian citizen is having to bear all the costs of his 'imperialist dreams of Novorossiya',

Kalyeena Makortoff (right) reports that,

"The conflict in eastern Ukraine hasn't hurt the country's reputation as the breadbasket of Europe, a Ukraine minister told CNBC on Tuesday.

 Oleksiy Pavlenko, the Ukrainian Minister of Agriculture and Food, said agricultural exports were still thriving despite tensions between pro-Russian separatists and Ukrainian troops surrounding key farming land in Donetsk and Luhansk." (CNBC : Tuesday, 15 Sep 2015) (my emphasis)

 

Yet, while Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatseniuk is predicting that Russia will,

"...impose a full embargo on Ukrainian agricultural exports in 2016 when the free trade zone agreement with the EU comes into force..." (Interfax Ukraine : 21.08.2015),

Dmitry Medvedev was skeptical about the "agreement with Ukraine and the EU on free trade zone agreement issues by the end of the year." (ibid Interfax Ukraine)

This was, however, in August of this year, and Medvedev may have been banking on the fact that the Czech Republic may veto the Ukraine-EU Free Trade Agreement.

Unfortunately for Medvedev,

"The lower house of Czech parliament passed the Association Agreement between the European Union and Ukraine at its session shortly before midnight on Thursday (17 Sept., 2015), after months of protraction and despite strong criticism of the opposition Communist Party (KSČM)." (Prague Post : 18 September 2015) (my emphasis)

President Miloš Zeman of the Czech Republic, a staunch supporter of Putin, is now legally bound to ratify it.

Putin has now put on, what Anna Nemtsova (left) describes as, "Putin's Pre-UN Charm Offensive"

She is, however, rather dubious whether this 'charm offensive' is fake, or whether it signifies some sort of breakthrough between Putin and the West.

As she states,

"Is Russian President Vladimir Putin launching a charm offensive that promises real breakthroughs, or just repackaging long-held objectives?" (The Daily Beast : 21.09.15)

Stanislav Belkovsky, a former adviser to the Kremlin, is of the opinion that,

"“Coming to the UN, Putin seeks the West’s appreciation for his efforts to fight against the Islamic State,” says Belkovsky. 
“He dreams of meeting with Obama—Putin secretly adores Obama—and for the sake of that meeting, he temporarily freezes the conflict in Eastern Ukraine. But if the UN members mistreat him, which is a very likely, the conflict will burn again.” (ibid Anna Nemtsova) (my emphasis)

These speculations are just that, 'speculations'. 

That Putin supposedly 'dreams' of meeting President Obama simply does not ring true, when considering that he shared a stolen 240 year-old bottle of wine with Berlusconi, the Mafia-linked criminal and sexual predator, but a few days ago in annexed Ukrainian Crimea.

As the old saying goes, 

"If wishes were horses, Beggars would ride."

(to be continued)

Will Putin's Syrian gambit succeed?

At the 12th Yalta European Strategy conference, held in Kiev during the weekend of the 12th and 13th September, Carl Bildt  (left) stated that,

...“we (the EU) just gave another 86 billion euros to Greece! We must support Ukraine — it will take a lot — but if we do it, it will be a shining example.” (John Llyod (right) :Reuters : September 14, 2015) (my emphasis)

Radek Sikorski (left) of Poland also stated at this conference that,

“I don’t think the EU is serious about its eastern strategy. We must tell (Russian President Vladimir) Putin he cannot win — and if he moves further into Ukraine, we will deliver arms.” (ibid John Llyod) (my emphasis)

More significantly,

"Strobe Talbott (right), former U.S. deputy secretary of state and now head of the Brookings Institution, said he believed that, on the Russian side, “the cease fire is not an attempt to get peace, but to lull the west — perhaps especially Paris — into dropping its guard.”

President Francois Hollande of France, a guarantor with Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel, of the truce, is keenest that the Western sanctions against Russia be lifted, citing observance of the ceasefire." (ibid John Llyod) (my emphasis)

To the current ceasefire in eastern Ukraine, that Putin is using to lull the west into "dropping its guard" over his intentions in Ukraine, we can now add his build-up of Russian military forces and equipment in Syria, together with the 'refugee crisis' now taking place in the EU.

This build-up of Putin's military forces in Syria is coinciding with the building of a huge military base near the Ukrainian border.

As Anton Zverev reports,

"Russia has started to build a huge military base housing ammunition depots and barracks for several thousand soldiers near the Ukrainian border, a project that suggests the Kremlin is digging in for a prolonged stand-off with Kiev." (Reuters : Wed Sep 9, 2015) (my emphasis)

Similarly, Ivan Nechepurenko (right) of the Moscow Times reports that,

"The recent flood of media reports claiming that Russia is boosting its military presence in Syria has detracted international attention from the Ukraine conflict in what analysts say is likely a deliberate ploy on Moscow's part.
.......
“Syria is a bigger problem for the West, so Russia can use the uproar about it to camouflage what is happening in Ukraine,” said Dmitry Oreshkin, an independent political analyst. ( Moscow Times : Sep. 15 2015) (my emphasis)

Putin may be patting himself on the back that the Syrian refugees, and ISIS in Syria, have allowed him to divert the gaze of the international community away from his war with Ukraine.

Indeed, so much so that he believes that Angela Merkel and Francoise Hollande will,

"..... [i]f something is not implemented [in the upcoming meeting of the Normandy Four] then it is clear the leaders would agree on some extension," Ushakov told reporters." (Denis Dyomkin : Reuters : Fri Sep 11, 2015) (my emphasis)

Unfortunately for Putin, NATO has NOT taken its eye off the Ukrainian ball.

As reported by Mark MacKinnon,

"Canadian troops arrive in Ukraine to train soldiers fighting separatists."

...[at the beginning of NATO's] Operation Unifier, the Canadian military’s mission to help train Ukrainian army units for war against the Russian-backed separatists who control swaths of eastern Ukraine.....

The 200 Canadians from the 1st Battalion of the Petawawa, Ont.-based Royal Canadian Regiment who formally began their mission on Monday, will initially work with the 30th Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian army teaching tactics, marksmanship and combat medicine, as well as how to deal with improvised explosive devices..(The Globe and Mail : Monday, Sep. 14, 2015)

Furthermore, Ryan Maass informs us that,

"U.S. military assistance to Ukraine expands to include training of active-duty troops in addition to the country's recently formed national guard."  

A new rotation of troops from the 173rd Airborne Brigade are set to train up to five battalions of Ukrainian soldiers, as the conflict with Russian-backed rebels in Eastern Ukraine continues. The paratroops are no strangers to the region, rotating soldiers into the country for the program known as Fearless Guardian since April. The program's goal is to beef up and reform the Ukrainian military." (UPI : Sept. 15, 2015) (my emphasis) 

On the Ukrainian economic front, Shawn Donnan in Washington and Roman Olearchy tell us that,

“There is the prospect for additional financing from the United States and from other sources as well,” a senior US Treasury official told the Financial Times. “For Ukraine to be successful in this environment it will require support from the United States, from Europe, from other bilateral and multilateral sources.” (Financial Times : September 15, 2015) (my emphasis)

Added to which,

"The World Bank’s Board of Executive Directors today approved a US$500 million IBRD operation to finance the Second Programmatic Financial Sector Development Policy Loan in Ukraine. This new financing supports a number of high-priority reform measures in the banking sector in response to the financial crisis in Ukraine." (The World Bank : September 15, 2015)

These military and economic developments in Ukraine comes just as Putin has been forced to,

"... [confirm] the primacy of Nord Stream—a natural gas pipeline through the Baltic Sea—in its efforts to replace Ukrainian transit routes for gas exports to Europe, diminishing the likely role to be played by its southern counterpart, Turkish Stream".

.........

"In the energy world, all eyes were on Putin to see whether he and his Chinese hosts would announce just how they planned to implement either the giant $55 billion program concluded in May 2014 to bring Russian gas to China by the eastern route from Skovorodino to northwest China or—Russia’s preference—a pipeline through the Altai pass into eastern China, provisionally costing $18.5 billion.

The silence surrounding these projects almost certainly indicates that Russia and China have not only still to reach an agreement on which line should be developed first, but on such basic issues—assumed to have been settled sixteen months ago—as the price of the gas, the timing of the project implementation and, above all, whether China should have a role in Russian upstream development as a quid pro quo for lending Russia some $25 billion for project development.(John M. Roberts (right): Atlantic Council : September 15, 2015) (my emphasis)

As John Roberts (ibid) says, "Russia's Gazprom [is] Unable to Do Without Europe"

This underscores Ulrich Speck's contention that,

 

"In Ukraine, the Kremlin's overarching goal has been to bring that country back under Russian control. But as Ukraine has become a stronger state that is integrating itself with the West, the likelihood for the Kremlin's success is getting smaller every day.

 

In order to distract from this strategic defeat, Russian President Vladimir Putin has increased his military engagement in Syria. " (Real Clear World : September 15, 2015)

And lest we forget,

(to be continued)

Putin at the UN, and his military buildup on the Ukrainian border

Denis Dyomkin reports that,

"The leaders of Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France will agree to roll-over a peace deal for eastern Ukraine if it is not fully implemented this year as intended, the Kremlin's top foreign policy aide, Yuri Ushakov, (right) said on Friday.

The so-called Minsk agreements state that various provisions must be implemented before the end of this year. Ushakov said the most important thing was to get them in place as soon as possible and within the existing framework.

"If something is not implemented then it is clear the leaders would agree on some extension," Ushakov told reporters." (Reuters : Fri Sep 11, 2015) (my emphasis)

This pre-emptive and categoric demand emanating from Putin's Kremlin, even BEFORE the upcoming meeting between himself, Merkel, Hollande, and Poroshenko, simply does NOT square with the latest call of Poroshenko that,

"...Russia pull out thousands of its troops after warning of Putin's "deadly new imperial ambitions".
...
Mr Poroshenko's stark warning comes ahead of joint meeting with Russian, German and French leaders next month. ....He said:

"A full withdrawal of all occupation forces from Ukrainian territory and closing the Ukrainian-Russian border: these are the two main preconditions for peace and stability in the Donbass." (Oli Smith : Express : Fri, Sep 11, 2015) (my emphasis)


The question that now raises its head is:

(1) "Given that Putin will be clamoring for an extension of the implementation of the Minsk2 protocols, and that 

(2) Poroshenko is calling for exactly the opposite viz. that ALL of the Minsk2 protocols be implemented by the specified deadline of 31st December, 2015,  

what, really, will be the purpose of their proposed October 2 meeting in Paris?"

If we are to believe the Kremlin's top foreign policy aide, Yuri Ushakov (cf. above), then neither Merkel, nor Hollande, will be pressing Putin to fully implement Minsk2 by the 'deadline' date. 

Is this pre-emptive extension of the full implementation of Minsk2 really the agreement that Putin, Merkel, and Hollande came to during their most recent 90 minute Skype Meeting on September 9?

As reported by the Kremlin,

"Particular attention (during this Skype telephone meeting) was given to implementing the political provisions of the Minsk Agreements, first and foremost carrying out a constitutional reform in Ukraine, including legislating special status for the Donbass regions, as well as organising local elections and adopting a law on amnesty. In this regard, Vladimir Putin once again stressed the need to establish a full-fledged, direct dialogue between the Kiev authorities and representatives from southeast Ukraine." (Kremlin.ru : September 9, 2015) (my emphasis)

Nowhere was the withdrawal of Putin's Russian forces mentioned, which indicates that this will simply NOT be implemented according to Minsk2.

Furthermore, as Anton Zverev reports,

"Russia has started to build a huge military base housing ammunition depots and barracks for several thousand soldiers near the Ukrainian border, a project that suggests the Kremlin is digging in for a prolonged stand-off with Kiev." (Reuters : Wed Sep 9, 2015) (my emphasis)

As RFE/RL also informs us,

"Speaking to RFE/RL on September 10, a NATO spokesman said that, "Overall, NATO remains concerned about Russia's military buildup near Ukraine's borders and its continued attempts to destabilize Ukraine." (RFE/RL : 10.09.2015) (my emphasis)

Against this backdrop of the military buildup of Putin's army near the Ukrainian border, Putin is to address the UN General Assembly on 28th September.

Julian Borger, reporting on Wednesday 29 July 2015, speculated that,

"It promises to be a rhetorical battle of the titans, on a scale not seen for at least a decade. 

On a Monday morning in late September, Barack Obama, Vladimir Putin, Hassan Rouhani, Xi Jinping and François Hollande are all scheduled to deliver speeches at the United Nations in New York, setting out their visions of the geopolitical landscape at the outset of a highly uncertain era." (Guardian :  Wednesday 29 July 2015) (my emphasis)

Somini Sengupta also speculates that,

"President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia could have an audience with Pope Francis on the sidelines of the development summit meeting here this month — but only, the Vatican envoy to the United Nations said Wednesday, if Mr. Putin gets here in time.

According to diplomatic protocol, the pope is to hold a bilateral meeting with the country that presides over the United Nations Security Council and only with its head of state. In September, that is Russia. Hence, Mr. Putin." (New York Times : Sept. 9, 2015) (my emphasis)

The war between Ukraine and Putin cannot be removed from the backdrop of this "rhetorical battle of the Titans" at the UN, as Julian Borger so aptly describes it. 

What happens in Ukraine between now and that expected "battle of the Titans" at the UN will either put the final nail in the coffin of Minsk2 or attempt to breathe life back into it.

(to be continued)

Putin, Syria, and Ukraine. Putin's dangerous gamble.

In the three-way Skype call between Putin, Merkel, and Hollande on Sat Aug 29, 2015, Putin re-iterated,

"...Russia's calls for direct dialogue between Kiev and rebel representatives and constitutional reforms agreed with the rebel regions." (John Irish, Jason Bush and Paul Carrel : Reuters : Sat Aug 29, 2015) (my emphasis)

 Since then, events that initially seemed far removed from the war between Putin and Ukraine have given Putin the 'bargaining chips' that he so desperately needs to help extricate himself from the corner into which he has painted himself over the implementation of the Minsk2 protocols.

At the same time, both Merkel and Hollande now see a way out of the EU sanctions against Putin that is causing so much pain in their own economies. 

The Syrian refugee crisis that has erupted in the EU has been further exacerbated by Putin for, among other reasons, to give added impetus to his stand that there must be ,"direct dialogue between Kiev and rebel representatives", a demand that he knows will rightly be rejected by Poroshenko. 

As Leonid Bershidsky (left) writes,

"Persistent reports in recent days indicate that Russia is increasingly involved in the war in Syria. The involvement is stealthy and apparently not as heavy as in eastern Ukraine, but it creates interesting prospects for U.S.-Russian relations, as well as for the development of both the Syrian and the Ukrainian conflicts." (Bloomberg View : Sept 8, 2015) (my emphasis) (cf. also The Washington Times : Tuesday, September 8, 2015)

Bershidsky further points out that,
 
"...commentators describe the putative Russian intervention as a Putin gamble. The Russian leader travels to the United Nations General Assembly next week, and there, they speculate, he may offer the U.S. a deal: Russian aid to the anti-ISIS effort in Syria in exchange for concessions on Ukraine and an end to sanctions." (ibid Leonid Bershidsky) (my emphasis)

Already we have Hollande calling for an end to the EU sanctions against Putin.

As reported last Monday by BBC News,

"French President Francois Hollande has said that following recent ceasefire progress in Ukraine he hopes to see the end of sanctions against Russia. 

 

Mr Hollande has proposed a meeting of the leaders of France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine in Paris later this month on the situation in Ukraine

He said there had been progress in recent weeks in implementing a troubled February peace deal.." (BBC News : 7 September 2015) (my emphasis)

This sudden call of Hollande for the lifting of EU sanctions against Putin and his 'siloviki' signifies that he is now more than willing to cave in to Putin's demands that his rebel-proxies in eastern Ukraine must be invited to the 'Normandy Four' diplomatic table.

Already we have "business as usual" between Putin and many top EU companies.

As reported by Andrew Rettman, (left)

"German firm BASF, last weekend, renewed an asset-swap deal with Russia’s Gazprom which is to see them build a second leg of the Nord Stream gas pipeline to Germany.

Austrian firm OMV, British-Dutch firm Shell, and France’s Engie are also to take part.

The BASF deal was initially suspended due to Russia’s annexation of Crimea

Judy Dempsey, an analyst at the Carnegie Europe think tank, said its renewal is “just like the old days, before the European Union imposed sanctions”.(EU Observer :  8. Sep., 2015) (my emphasis) 

More significantly, however, what is the betting that President Obama, who seems to have put nearly all his 'foreign policy' eggs into his Middle Eastern basket, will simply acquiesce to the demands of Putin?

That Putin will demand an end to sanctions is directly related to the fact that,

"Ukrainian foreign minister, Pavlo Klimkin (right), told press in Brussels on Monday (7 September):

“The first of January is the final date [for entry into life] of the pact.

It’s an ultimate decision taken jointly by Ukraine and by the European Commission”.

“There’s no chance to influence this by the Russian side or any other side … there’s no chance of changing the agreement”.(ibid Andrew Rettman) (my emphasis)

Putin desperately wants to obstruct the implementation of this economic pact between the EU and Ukraine, that comes into effect in less than 4 months from now.

And he will use his 'Syrian card' when grandstanding in front of the UN Assembly at the end of this month as the 'ace up his sleeve' to try and achieve this end.

As Kirill Martynov (left) wrote in Novaya Gazeta,

"Moscow, which, unlike Washington, doesn't have to deal with resistance from public opinion and Congress, is to undertake the destruction of ISIS," Kirill Martynov wrote in Novaya Gazeta.

"If the plan succeeds even partially, the Russian authorities will get all they could ever dream of -- the normalization of relations with the West, the prospect of negotiations on the status of Crimea and, at the same time, a demonstration of Russian power throughout the world .... " (ibid Leonid Bershidsky) (my emphasis)

But will this really happen? Or does it simply illustrate, as  Yevgeni Kiselyoev (right), a former top TV anchor in Moscow who now lives in Kiev, wrote in a blog post,

"I have no doubt that military intervention in Syria would be an adventure that would put Russia in mortal danger," (ibid Leonid Bershidsky) (my emphasis)

If Yevgeni Kiselyoev is correct then this would mean that Putin has lost his 'gamble', even before he has played what he regards as his 'Syrian Ace up his sleeve'.

Is this 'Syrian adventure' of Putin yet another indication of his desperation in trying to extricate himself from his crumbling 'Ukrainian adventure'? 

Or does it indicate that, like Stalin in his last days, his growing isolation within the Kremlin is now getting the better of him.

(to be continued)