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Thursday 8 August 2019

Is Zelenskiy on the verge of re-defining critical goals specified in Minsk2?

Hardly had the prison doors shut on the recent Moscow arrests of demonstrators against Putin when, on cue,

"Kyiv says four Ukrainian soldiers have lost their lives in the latest clashes with Russia-backed separatists in the country's east.

The Defense Ministry said in a statement that the pro-Russia separatists opened fire at Ukrainian military positions in the Donetsk region on August 6, using grenade-launchers, machine guns, and assault rifles.

"We say with sadness that, as a result of the enemy's attacks today, according to the information in our possession, four of our heroes sustained injuries, to which they succumbed," the statement said." (RFERL : 6 August 2019) (my emphasis)

The immediate response of Ukraine's President Zelenskiy was to,

"...[urge] the leaders of Russia, Germany and France to resume talks on a peaceful solution to the separatist conflict in Ukraine’s eastern Donbass region after four soldiers were killed in shelling on Tuesday." (Natalia Zinets : Reuters : 6 August 2019) (my emphasis)

In the words of Zelenskiy,

"I called him urgently. I told him that this brings us no closer to peace," Zelenskiy said during a news briefing in Kyiv, adding that he had urged Putin to ask the Moscow-backed separatists who are holding parts of eastern Ukraine to "stop killing our people."

He also said Putin had promised him something, details of which would be disclosed later." (RFERL : 7 August 2019) (my emphasis)

RFERL (ibid) further reports that,

"The Kremlin said the two presidents discussed the prospects of cooperation under the so-called Normandy format for negotiations aimed at putting an end to the conflict, and agreed to intensify their work on prisoner exchange."

What is significant, as reported by Max Seddon and Roman Olearchyk (right), is that,

"The Kremlin said Mr Putin had told Mr Zelensky that “de-escalating the conflict foremost requires stopping all further shelling of residential areas in the Donbass by Ukrainian troops, which is creating civilian casualties”. The phone call on Wednesday was the second between the two leaders since Mr Zelensky became president.

Mr Putin also pushed Kiev to give the breakaway areas — which Russia claims not to control despite abundant evidence to the contrary — special status under a potential peace deal, although this would be politically unpalatable in Ukraine." (Financial Times : 7 August 2019) (my emphasis)


"[Zelinskiy believes that] talks with Moscow should take place in the presence of Western mediators, and the Normandy format should be remodeled to include the United States and Great Britain in a "Budapest style format" (The Moscow Times : 24 April, 2019) (my emphasis)

So how does this square with Macron's version of the Normandy format i.e. to be composed ONLY of Zelensky, Putin, Merkel, and himself? 

Furthermore, given that Merkel and Macron are now of the opinion that,
  • the withdrawal of Russian forces from the Donbas, 
  • disarmament of local proxy forces and 
  • restoration of Ukrainian control along the Ukraine-Russia border, 
are merely defined as aspirations, rather than indispensable preconditions to any “elections” in Donetsk-Luhansk (Vladimir Socor :Ukrinform, April 12, 13) (my emphasis), and that Putin will demand special status for the occupied Donbas under a potential peace deal, exactly what are the details of the co-operation that was discussed recently between Putin and Zelinskiy?

Now that Zelenskiy has an army of political 'rookies' in the Rada, is he on the verge of re-defining critical goals of the Minsk2 agreements, just as Merkel and Macron are re-defining them in Putin's favour?



(to be continued)

APPENDIX : MINSK2 AGREEMENT

Full text of the Minsk2 agreement: (Wiki)

    1. Immediate and full ceasefire in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine and its strict fulfilment  

        as of 00:00 midnight EET on 15 February 2015.

    2. Pull-out of all heavy weapons by both sides to equal distance with the aim of creation of a security zone on

        minimum 50  kilometres (31 mi) apart for artillery of 100mm calibre or more, and a security zone of 70
        kilometres (43 mi) for multiple rocket launchers (MRLS) and 140 kilometres (87 mi) for MLRS Tornado-S,
       Uragan, Smerch, and Tochka U tactical missile systems:
        for Ukrainian troops, from actual line of contact;
        for armed formations of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine, from the contact line in

         accordance with the Minsk Memorandum as of 19 September 2014
        The pullout of the above-mentioned heavy weapons must start no later than the second day after the start of the

        ceasefire and finish within 14 days.
        This process will be assisted by OSCE with the support of the Trilateral Contact Group.

 
    3. Effective monitoring and verification of ceasefire regime and pullout of heavy weapons by OSCE will be provided

       from the first day of pullout, using all necessary technical means such as satellites, drones, radio-location systems etc.
    4. On the first day after the pullout a dialogue is to start on modalities of conducting local elections in accordance with

       the Ukrainian legislation and the Law of Ukraine "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts
       of  Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts," and also about the future of these districts based on the above-mentioned law.
       Without delays, but no later than 30 days from the date of signing of this document, a resolution has to be approved

        by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, indicating the territory which falls under the special regime in accordance with the
       law  "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts," based in
       the line set up by the Minsk Memorandum as of 19 September 2014.
    5. Provide pardon and amnesty by way of enacting a law that forbids persecution and punishment of persons in relation

       to events that took place in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine.
    6. Provide release and exchange of all hostages and illegally held persons, based on the principle of "all for all". This

        process has to end – at the latest – on the fifth day after the pullout (of weapons).
    7. Provide safe access, delivery, storage and distribution of humanitarian aid to the needy, based on an international

        mechanism.
    8. Define the modalities of a full restoration of social and economic connections, including social transfers, such as

        payments of pensions and other payments (income and revenue, timely payment of communal bills, restoration of tax
        payments within the framework of Ukrainian legal field).
        With this aim, Ukraine will restore management over the segment of its banking system in the districts affected by the

        conflict, and possibly, an international mechanism will be established to ease such transactions.

    9. Restore control of the state border to the Ukrainian government in the whole conflict zone, which has to start on

       the first day after the local election and end after the full political regulation (local elections in particular districts
       of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts based on the law of Ukraine and Constitutional reform) by the end of 2015, on
       the condition of fulfillment of Point 11 – in consultations and in agreement with representatives of particular
       districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts within the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group.

    10. Pullout of all foreign armed formations, military equipment, and also mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine

         under  OSCE supervision. Disarmament of all illegal groups.
 
    11. Constitutional reform in Ukraine, with a new constitution to come into effect by the end of 2015, the key element of

          which is decentralisation (taking into account peculiarities of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts,
          agreed with representatives of these districts), and also approval of permanent legislation on the special status of
          particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in accordance with the measures spelt out in the attached
         footnote,[note 1] by the end of 2015.
    12. Based on the Law of Ukraine "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and

          Luhansk Oblasts", questions related to local elections will be discussed and agreed upon with representatives of
         particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group. Elections will be
         held in accordance with relevant OSCE standards and monitored by OSCE/ODIHR.
    13. Intensify the work of the Trilateral Contact Group including through the establishment of working groups on the

          implementation of relevant aspects of the Minsk agreements. They will reflect the composition of the Trilateral
         Contact Group.

 (The high-lighted points (2, 9, and 10) are what are now regarded by Merkel and Macron as mere aspirations)

Added to which, we have Putin showering the Donbas with Russian passports for the Ukrainian residents under the occupation of his Russian soldiers and rebel proxies.

 

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