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Wednesday 28 August 2019

The pressure is now on Zelenskiy.

In my blog entry of 8 June, 2017, I wrote that,

"The scarlet thread of Maidan, that has wrapped Putin in sanctions, and that has wrapped Trump in the nightmare of his salacious cavortings in Russia being publicly revealed, as by his own 'denial' of those cavorting to James Comey, cannot be easily escaped from by either Putin nor Trump."

This is best illustrated by Trump recently coming to the defense of Putin, and exhorting the members of the the recent 2019 G7 summit in France to reinstate Putin so that the G7 can revert back to the G8.

Let us remind ourselves that Putin was kicked out of the G8 because of his invasion of, and annexation of, Ukraine's Crimea peninsula, and his setting in motion his war with Ukraine in the Donbas.

Yet whilst the erstwhile President of France, Emmanuel Macron, supports maintaining the exclusion of Putin from the G7 he is, nonetheless, trying to steamroller the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, into holding a Normandy Format talks about ending the war between Putin and Ukraine.

As RFERL reports,

"French President Emmanuel Macron says the leaders of Russia, Ukraine, Germany, and France will hold talks next month aimed at ending the conflict in eastern Ukraine, as U.S. national-security adviser John Bolton announced he would visit Ukraine.

"We think that the conditions exist for a useful summit," Macron said at the end of a Group of Seven (G7) summit in the southwestern French coastal resort of Biarritz.2 (RFERL : 26 August 2019) (my emphasis)


U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton is not so sure that President Zelensky should rush into such talks with Putin.

As  RFERL reports,

"U.S. national-security adviser John Bolton (right) says there is no need for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to "rush" into any course of action regarding Russia’s involvement with separatist forces in eastern Ukraine.
...
"I don't suppose that the Europeans are going to have a solution that is readily apparent," he added in reference to the so-called Normandy format of negotiations aimed at ending the Ukraine conflict." (RFERL : 27 Aug 2019) (my emphasis)


Let us also remind ourselves that,

"...Merkel and Macron are now of the opinion that,
  • the withdrawal of Russian forces from the Donbas, 
  • disarmament of local proxy forces and 
  • restoration of Ukrainian control along the Ukraine-Russia border, 
are merely defined as aspirations, rather than indispensable preconditions to any “elections” in Donetsk-Luhansk (Vladimir Socor :Ukrinform, April 12, 13)"

Which rather underscores the Polish Deputy Foreign Minister's statement that,

"... the existing cooperation between Russia and Germany on the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project is reminiscent of Nazi Germany's cooperation with the USSR before World War II, that's according to Deputy Foreign Minister Szymon Szynkowski vel Sęk (left)" (UNIAN : 27 August 2019) (my emphasis)

President Zelensky now finds himself stuck between Macron, Merkel, Bolton, and his electoral promise to end the war with Putin that still rages in the Donbas.

But can Zelensky either :-
  • ignore Bolton's caution about 'rushing into action' when dealing with Putin about his war with Ukraine in the Donbas and his annexation of Ukraine's Crimea or
  • ignore Macron's steamrollering towards a  Normandy Format meeting with Putin because of the expanding economic links between French and Russian businessmen or
  • ignore Merkel steamrollering the completion of Nord Stream 2 between Germany and Putin?
These are the choices confronting Zelensky.

But what could determine which choice Zelensky chooses is the prospect of,

" ...  a meeting between Trump and Zelenskiy [that] could happen soon.

[According to Bolton], “We expect to have a chance for the two of them to talk in Poland,” he said.

Trump is expected to travel to Poland and Denmark from Aug. 31 to Sept. 3, the White House said last month." (Pavel Polityuk : Reuters : 27 August 2019) (my emphasis)

Critically, if this meeting between Trump and Zelenskiy transpires it will be BEFORE the Normandy Format meeting being pushed by Macron (and Merkel?)!

Todd Prince (right) outlines the reason for Trump going to Poland and Denmark.

"U.S. President Donald Trump will fly to Europe later this month to pursue a goal his predecessors going back to John F. Kennedy and Ronald Reagan failed to achieve -- derailing a Kremlin-backed energy-export pipeline.

The Trump administration and the U.S. Congress are fighting to block the 9.5 billion-euro ($10.6 billion) Nord Stream 2 project amid fears it will make NATO allies and other European countries more reliant on Russian energy and damage Ukraine by depriving it of transit fees." (RFERL : 13 August 2019) (my emphasis)

Trump may have called for Putin to be re-admitted to the G7 group, but he faces an uphill political struggle as the 2020 US presidential race gains momentum.

How this will affect a Zelenskiy-Trump meeting now remains to be seen.


 


The pressure is now on Zelenskiy. 



(to be continued)

STOP PRESS!!

Natasha Bertrand of Politico has just reported that,

"The Trump administration is slow-walking $250 million in military assistance to Ukraine, annoying lawmakers and advocates who argue the funding is critical to keeping Russia at bay.

But the delays come amid questions over Trump’s approach to Russia, after a weekend in which the president repeatedly seemed to downplay Moscow’s military intervention in Ukraine and pushed for Russia to be reinstated into the Group of Seven, an annual gathering of the world’s largest advanced economies. " (Politico : 29 August 2019) (my emphasis)

The pressure on Zelenskiy seems only to be increasing.



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